Let's discuss drafting for value (1 Viewer)

[notdarkyet]

The prevailing thought around here has always been to maximize your value, but we never seem to define at what point that becomes a detriment to the overall success of your team. How many people are willing to bank on stacking value up at a given position with the hopes of turning that around for positions of need in trade?

Example:

In a keep 1 player league, drafting in the number 2 slot: Start QB, RB, WR, WR, RB/WR, TE, K, DST.

Keeping Adrian Peterson, 1st round will likely result in Jones Drew. On the long journey back to 2.11, there will be plenty of RB's available, but WR's and QB's will be wearing a bit thin in relation to value. Without being able to start more than 2 RB's and having two studs of that caliber, it doesn't really make any sense to take advantage of that value, does it?

I only bring that as an example to show what I am talking about, so don't take the thread the direction of WDID please.

How much are you willing to gamble on taking that value at whatever position of strength you have with the idea of parlaying that into a position of need later? Do you forgo that value and draft your need? Of course this will depend somewhat on your leaguemates and their tendency or lack-there-of to trade.

I guess I would be more likely to forgo the value and take what I need before it becomes too late to get anybody worth while at those positions. If you end up stuck with your depth at RB in the above example you do so at the detriment of your WR and QB for the sake of getting your value pick. I think I would rather end up reaching on a position that has to play at that point.

What do you say, Shark Pool? Is this example too extreme? If so, what kind of combo's at various positions would get you contemplating forgoing value?

 

[Garts]

The prevailing thought around here has always been to maximize your value, but we never seem to define at what point that becomes a detriment to the overall success of your team. How many people are willing to bank on stacking value up at a given position with the hopes of turning that around for positions of need in trade? Example:In a keep 1 player league, drafting in the number 2 slot: Start QB, RB, WR, WR, RB/WR, TE, K, DST.Keeping Adrian Peterson, 1st round will likely result in Jones Drew. On the long journey back to 2.11, there will be plenty of RB's available, but WR's and QB's will be wearing a bit thin in relation to value. Without being able to start more than 2 RB's and having two studs of that caliber, it doesn't really make any sense to take advantage of that value, does it?I only bring that as an example to show what I am talking about, so don't take the thread the direction of WDID please.How much are you willing to gamble on taking that value at whatever position of strength you have with the idea of parlaying that into a position of need later? Do you forgo that value and draft your need? Of course this will depend somewhat on your leaguemates and their tendency or lack-there-of to trade.I guess I would be more likely to forgo the value and take what I need before it becomes too late to get anybody worth while at those positions. If you end up stuck with your depth at RB in the above example you do so at the detriment of your WR and QB for the sake of getting your value pick. I think I would rather end up reaching on a position that has to play at that point.What do you say, Shark Pool? Is this example too extreme? If so, what kind of combo's at various positions would get you contemplating forgoing value?

ALWAYS take the BPA.You can always trade later and get multiple players for a guy like MJD.

 

[notdarkyet]

ALWAYS take the BPA.You can always trade later and get multiple players for a guy like MJD.

OK, so end of 2 and 3 both BPA is RB. So you are 4 RB's in in a max 2RB league. End of 4 and BPA is a RB. At some point this ALWAYS take the BPA has to stop making sense, doesn't it?

 

[bucsbaby]

Depends on your league. If you're in an active league where you can get reasonable return on trades, then sure, scoop up the value. But, if you're in a relatively inactive league or a league where you have to overpay significantly to pull off a trade, it doesn't make as much sense imo.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

just watch an ep of pawn stars and you will see the difference between the 'value' of an item to different people.

 

[sgtrobo]

you absolutely take BPA in the 1st and 2nd. Unless you['re in a league that forbids trades, this is always the best plan. You can start 2 RBs, so you have 2 of the consensus top 4, both of whom are consistent and in ideal situations to produce.

If it's close at the end of the 2nd, then go for a WR. If the WRs there are not studs and there is a stud RB available, you grab the stud RB and roll with it. maybe you make a trade, maybe you play RBBC with your studs (always a risky proposition) or maybe you simply win because you have him on your bench which means he ISN'T putting up 20-30 points for someone else

 

[J-Dawg]

Absolutely take BPA. I've learned the hard way that drafting for need will only leave you with relatively inferior (probably too harsh a word to use but couldn't think of a better one at the moment) players in comparison to who you COULD have drafted. If you've got two players with relatively equal value, then take the one who fills the greater need, but don't reach for a guy just because you need a certain position over a more established player at another position of strength. It's a risk that you may not be able to make a move later on to improve in certain areas, but worry about the present first and then re-evaluate your team after the draft. However, while the draft is on, your first priority should always be to acquire as much talent as possible and the best way to do that is to go BPA.

 

[renesauz]

So...no other team gets to keep 1?

IE: How does MJD NOT get kept unless he was on the Rice, ADP, or CJ team (which seems highly unlikely since a team with two RB studs isn't likely picking #1)?

AS to the real question...in the first few rounds, you take the value, period. After the 3rd or 4th round, league dynamics need to be considered. IN an active league, you should be able to stick with BPA through at least 7 rounds or so.

 

[renesauz]

ALWAYS take the BPA.You can always trade later and get multiple players for a guy like MJD.

OK, so end of 2 and 3 both BPA is RB. So you are 4 RB's in in a max 2RB league. End of 4 and BPA is a RB. At some point this ALWAYS take the BPA has to stop making sense, doesn't it?

but that's generally only going to happen in leagues heavily populated with new fantasy players (IE: guppy leagues). Often in those leagues you find that even when teams desperately need what you're selling (a viable RB), they STILL believe their QB is worth two of your RB's and you can't get appropriate value. IN that scenario, you end up with insane value on your bench while starting Trent Edwards every week.League dynamics MUST be considered. IF RB is the value every round...after you get 4 of them...you HAVE NO CHOICE but to switch gears.

 

[David Dodds]

Here is how we handle this in the Draft Dominator is like this:

If you still need a starter, you count their entire VBD. So if you start 1 QB and have none, all of the QBs full VBD will count. The second you draft a QB, only 80% of the VBD will count for that position. After you have 2 QBs, only 60% VBD will count, etc.

This tries to get you to fill in your roster spots unless RIDICULOUS VALUE exists. In those cases, it makes sense to stockpile players as they have significant trade worth.

 

[notdarkyet]

So...no other team gets to keep 1?IE: How does MJD NOT get kept unless he was on the Rice, ADP, or CJ team (which seems highly unlikely since a team with two RB studs isn't likely picking #1)?AS to the real question...in the first few rounds, you take the value, period. After the 3rd or 4th round, league dynamics need to be considered. IN an active league, you should be able to stick with BPA through at least 7 rounds or so.

It's a redraft league, you draw for draft position, you can keep anyone drafted 2nd round or later for as long as you want as a franchise tag. His rookie year, I drafted Peterson late in the 2nd. Last year I had the choice of keeping Peterson, CJ or Turner were my top 3 choices. For the most part everyone should be able to keep somone that has at least 2nd round value for this season. So when I look at average draft position after the 2nd or third round, I am basically adding one round to where we are in our draft.People in this league tend to overvalue their property, especially when trading across positions (you are going to have to get up to the points value of a QB to trade for one), which is part of the reason this came up.

 

[notdarkyet]

Here is how we handle this in the Draft Dominator is like this:If you still need a starter, you count their entire VBD. So if you start 1 QB and have none, all of the QBs full VBD will count. The second you draft a QB, only 80% of the VBD will count for that position. After you have 2 QBs, only 60% VBD will count, etc.This tries to get you to fill in your roster spots unless RIDICULOUS VALUE exists. In those cases, it makes sense to stockpile players as they have significant trade worth.

That is the DVBD column, right? What happens with regard to flex position. Say you have enough to fill starter requirements for the actual positions, is there any sort of weight one way or the other if WR/RB are flexed? I would assume the WR position would be weighted more in this scenario since you can start more of them at a given time?