Let's talk Buffalo Bills (1 Viewer)

[SSOG]

First off, I'm not a Bills homer. I'm very clearly a Denver homer, and lots of people on this board can attest to that- so please, don't try dismissing everything I say as the rantings of a disgruntled fan.

With that said, everyone around here seems to take it as a foregone conclusion that Buffalo will finish as one of the 5 worst teams in the NFL this year. I just have one question. WHY?!

Buffalo finished 2004 as the hottest team in the league, by far. Their defense was the #1 defense in the league, again by far. They were ON FIRE in a big way, and the general consensus was that they were the team that every single AFC team was glad they didn't have to face in the playoffs. They managed all of this despite HORRID QB play, and a below-average offensive line.

In 2005, the wheels fell off. Takeo Spikes, the leader of their defense, was lost in the first 2 or 3 weeks, and the rushing defense FELL TO PIECES. Personally, I do not see those two events as all that unrelated. Likewise, they started J.P. Losman, a first year QB, who understandably struggled (as all first-year starting QBs are wont to do). Lee Evans seemed to hit the dreaded Sophomore Slump. Willis McGahee started struggling with no credible passing game to take the heat off of him.

Fast forward to 2006. Everyone seems to take it as a foregone conclusion that Buffalo will be just as bad this year as last year, but personally, I think that's a HORRIBLE conclusion to draw. Spikes will be back. Losman will be in his second year. Evans will be in his third year. There'll be a new coaching staff in town.

Now, I could quote all sorts of statistics here. I could talk about regression to the mean, or point out what sort of strides 1st-round QBs like Eli Manning and Carson Palmer made in their second seasons as starters. I could talk about how well Holcomb played in his limited action last season. I could go over all the ways that this Buffalo team resembles the 2004 team that no one wanted to play. But I'm not going to. Instead, I'm going to ask you guys. Could somebody explain to me why they believe Buffalo will not improve any, but will remain a bottom-5 team this year?

 

[J-Money]

I think, for me anyways, some of the bills apprehension comes about because of their schedule. By the time their by week comes about I could see them being 2-5 or 3-4. They play NE twice by week 7 along with Miami and chicago. I think they have a good chance to beat Detroit and the jets, not so sure about minnesota. if the lions offense becomes as potent as a Martz offense is capable of doing then they could just as easily go 1-6.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

I think the Bills will be a better team than they were last year when they managed to go 4-5 to start off the year despite absolutely dreadful play from Losman at times and a defense that couldn't stop the run. If they hold on to beat the Dolphins after leading 21-0 in the first, the Dolphins wouldn't be getting nearly as much hype this year so I'm not convinced the two teams are as different as many people suggest.

That being said, the Bills have many major question marks left that make me think it will be tough for them to win more than 6 games this year.

QB Play - Holcomb has a weak arm and is mistake prone, while Losman lacks accuracy and poise. Throw in Nall and none of these guys look like they'll be able to lead a team to too many victories, especially given the surrounding talent issues.

McGahee - Slumped badly down the stretch in 2005. The offensive line problems played a major role, but he looked nothing like the same player who dominated in 2004. He was slow, indecisive, and often fell down on first contact rather than fighting through several defenders for extra yards like he used to. He needs to play much better in 2006 for this team to be competitive and I think it's certainly possible given reports that he'll begin this season at a lighter playing weight with motivation to get a big contract soon.

WRs - Moulds was the team's #1 and still drew plenty of defensive attention. He was reliable and a veteran leader for the entire offense so he will be tough to replace. Evans has shown a lot of promise but is unproven as a #1. They have decent depth at the position but a bunch of question marks at the #2 spot. If someone doesn't emerge as a quality #2 WR, Evans will be much easier for defenses to shut down.

TEs - They can block but don't do much else.

O-line - There will be 2 new starters who should provide significant upgrades at LG and C, and Peters should improve with more experience at RT. Villarial is solid at RG and Gandy remains a weakness at LT. More than anything, this unit just needs to stay healthy...too many injuries have made it difficult for the line to gel in the past. Dumping Mike Williams and Bennie Anderson and Trey Teague are all examples of addition by subtraction that should improve the pass protection.

Offensive coaching staff - New coach/system being brought in. Mularkey botched everything last year and the offense went to crap after he took over playcalling duties. Would be tough for Fairchild to do worse, but he's pretty much an unknown at this point. He really needs to commit to the running game as much as possible, and that shouldn't be hard to do with Jauron and Levy around.

Run defense - Losing Pat Williams in free agency was the single biggest reason for the Bills run defense falling apart last year. I was very disappointed that Jerry Gray couldn't come up with a solution so hopefully the new staff/system will be able to make some improvements. Fewell is an unknown and will be installing a new system so it could take some time to adjust and find the right players. Can Anderson/Tripplett/McCargo stop the run?

Pass defense - This should be a strength of the team. They have a very talented secondary, excellent speed at linebacker, and a very productive pass rusher in Schobel. They are still lacking a LDE who can complement Schobel though. Also, Whitner may experience some growing pains at SS...and Troy Vincent missed a few too many tackles last year so he'll need to bounce back and help offset the leadership void created by the release of Lawyer Milloy.

Head coach - Jauron's record in Chicago was generally unimpressive. However, his players usually played hard for him. His biggest problem was a stubborn refusal to get rid of John Shoop as his offensive coordinator. Hopefully, Jauron has learned from his past mistakes and will do better in this new opportunity. But, I don't think anyone would be shocked if he flopped. Hiring hot coordinators didn't work out too well for the Bills in their last two hires (Gregg Williams, Mike Mularkey) so perhaps they'll have better luck with a retread.

Division - Patriots seem to be getting weaker and weaker each year, but as long as Brady is still around they will compete for the division title. The Dolphins were able to successfully rebuild on the fly and have the pieces in place to be a playoff team as early as this season. The Jets look like a mess, but could be decent if they get consistent production out of their QB and RB spots. Bills are probably no better than 3rd best in this division, but none of the other teams look unbeatable at this point.

It will be very interesting to see how all the moves Marv Levy has made turn out. Donahoe made his share of good decisions, but ultimately his head coaching hires wound up dooming him. Jauron has the feeling of a "safe" choice who will keep his team in the game most weeks, but won't ever be that successful.

Keys to a successful season:

Losman has to emerge as the team's QB

McGahee and the running game have to be much more effective

Evans needs to stay productive despite much more defensive attention and a WR2 has to emerge

Offensive line needs to play much better

Run defense has to play much better

Team needs to adapt to new systems quickly

 

[Boston]

Count me as someone who sees Buffalo play an awful lot and isn't expecting much out of them.

Offensively this is one of the weaker overall units in the league. Outside of McGahee and Evans there's not many bright spots.

*QB-One of the worst situations in the NFL unless Losman makes dramatic strides. So far I've been highly unimpressed with him. He's got a ton of holes in his game and I'd be surprised if he becomes an asset this year. Holmcomb's a solid NFL backup but he's not a legit starter.

*O line-Like the Texans this is an area that just doesn't seem to improve. I don't see anything dramatic this year as well. It would be a real shocker if this became a strength.

WR/TE-After Lee Evans there's not anything that's going to worry teams. The talent here allows defenses to really go after Evans.

RB depth-If McGahee goes down there's trouble ahead. Big trouble.

#### Jauron's a big running fan. How can you expect to grind it out with a subpar line and with talent that allows defenses to play 8 in the box?

Defensively Buffalo could be better than last year. They have some solid pieces (especially at CB) and it would be a big plus if Winfield, McCargo and Youbouty can contribute right away. Yet, if you're comparing them to two years ago you need to note that both Adams and Williams are gone and they did a lot of damage in the middle. Overall, their D line is nothing special. So, while this team has a chance to play tough D I don't see an upside big enough to cover up their offensive woes.

Finally, coach is a question mark. Jauron had his ups and downs with the Bears. I know he is well respected but I can't say I'm convinced he's a guy to lead this team to a turnaround. He obviously deserves some time to prove what he can do but it's not a situation like Miami where you just know Saban is turning things around. Just can't say this area is a strength right now...and it hasn't been for quite sometime in Buffalo.

 

[PatsWillWin]

I think they'll be better than last year, but they could still be pretty bad. Their defense will be much improved, but they lost Moulds, they didn't add an impact player with their 8th pick (IMO), and quite frankle, it's never a good thing to have a THREE-WAY competition at QUARTERBACK.

 

[On The Rocks]

Buffalo finished 2004 as the hottest team in the league, by far.

i am a Bills homer and i will come back to address the rest of your post but i just wanted to say that one of the reason the Bills finished so strong in 2004 was the schedule. they played bad teams.

Week 6 Oct 17 W 20-13 vs Miami Dolphins

Week 7 Oct 24 L 20-6 at Baltimore Ravens

Week 8 Oct 31 W 38-14 vs Arizona Cardinals

Week 9 Nov 7 W 22-17 vs New York Jets

Week 10 Nov 14 L 29-6 at New England Patriots

Week 11 Nov 21 W 37-17 vs St. Louis Rams

Week 12 Nov 28 W 38-9 at Seattle Seahawks

Week 13 Dec 5 W 42-32 at Miami Dolphins

Week 14 Dec 12 W 37-7 vs Cleveland Browns

Week 15 Dec 19 W 33-17 at Cincinnati Bengals

Week 16 Dec 26 W 41-7 at San Francisco 49ers

Week 17 Jan 2 L 29-24 vs Pittsburgh Steelers

look at the teams they played from week 6 on. they lost to the Ravens, Patriots, and Steelers. and they should have beaten the Ravens.

the only teams they beat that were on the rise were the Seahawks, and Bengals who were still a year away from getting over the hump.

the rest of the schedule was one loser team after another.

 

[Bri]

Jonas Jennings was a big hit last year too. Similarly, I think he'll force a dramatic improvement in the 49ers line this year.

They have to be able to run when everyone knows they will. It's just too cold up in Buffalo and too tough in the AFC East to not be able to do this. I don't know if they have the 0-line to do this but they gotta try. Sometimes plays like that can be contagious and it's something to build upon as the season wears on. As a pats fan, I remember plenty of sundays yelling at the TV that even I knew they'd run but we didn't stop it.

In year's past I always respected Buffalo D+O linemen as maybe not "thoroughbreds" or "blue chip" prospects but some of the hardest working tough guys in the league. They did well in FA and thus proved the NFL as a whole also held them in high regard too. At some point, they went away from this and I hope Marv can bring that back to the team. I never cared for Teague and am betting his departure is an addition by subtraction for the line.

As for Losman, WRs, TEs, etc. I really think the running game changes everything. They'll all look better if they can run and stop the run.

 

[GroveDiesel]

Jonas Jennings was a big hit last year too. Similarly, I think he'll force a dramatic improvement in the 49ers line this year.

Yes and no. Jennings has plenty of talent and can be a very good LT at times. BUT, he's ALWAYS hurt. Even his games played listed in his stats is deceptive because quite a few of those games he played for a little bit and then had to sit for most of the game. When he's healthy he tends to get lots of false start and holding penalties called on him as well. Now, I don't think that the Bills have really upgraded the LT spot, but Jennings is wildly overpaid by the Niners and overrated.

I've said the same thing for the past 5 seasons and I'll say it again: this season for the Bills will all come down to the offensive line performance. Once again they have seemingly done very little to upgrade the O-line. They appear to think that they have the guys that they need to have a decent line. We shall see how that pans out. They were right to let Teague and Williams go, but they didn't really bring anyone in that is a guaranteed upgrade either. If the O-line remains as bad as it's been for the past 5 years, this team will be abysmal once again. If the O-line can at least be an NFL calibre line, then they should at least be competitive out there instead of an embarassment.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Since I know you're a fan of footballoutsiders, I'll throw out a little study they did on teams improving their win total in year N+1.

Between 1978 and 2002, 52 teams finished the season with 5 wins. The following year, 31 of those teams improved their record (59.62%). 7 teams won the same amount of games and 14 got worse.

Also, 5 win teams that changed coaches were slightly better off in year N+1 compared to teams who kept their coach.

Just figured I'd throw that out there.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Also, here's an article on offensive line experience as a unit that I found interesting last year.

http://www.caffeinated.com/coinflip/module...=article&sid=21

Since there isn’t much useful data from the preseason, my comments for each team this week will include total size and experience data for the 5 starting Offensive Linemen as listed on the NFL.COM depth charts. Listed weights should always be taken with a few fistfuls of salt, of course. Still the comparisons are noteworthy – the prevailing wisdom is that larger OLs are better than smaller OLs, but the theory here at COINFLIP is that experience as a unit (number of games played together) is more important.

The three teams with the least amount of oline experience last year were SFO, MIN & MIA. All three of those teams struggled badly at least the first half of the season.Hopefully he continues this blog like page in 2006 and comes back with oline experience rankings (since I'm too lazy to do it myself). Buffalo appears to be low on the scale of games started in 2005 and low on the total years experience as well.

 

[CanadianNFLJunkie]

Well two reasons for me as for why they won't be good this year is going to be QB play and schedule. MM made a huge mistake last year for not staying with JP, so here we are one year later and they still have no idea who will QB this team. The comparison with Eli and Carson is not a good one. For every Eli and Carson, I'll throw you Ryan Leaf and Akeli (SP) Smith. Carson was putting up pretty good passing numbers but some picks his first year playing. Eli slowly improved as he finished off his first year. JP struggled throwing for 200 yards last year, as well as throwing too many ill-adviced picks and he wasn't getting any better. As for the schedule, New England and Miami are heads better than Buffalo so there is at least three loses there. Jets might be worse than Buffalo though. Based on who they play on the road, I say they will struggle winning more than one.

I could also add in coaching staff but if this scheme generally worked in Chicago, then maybe it can here but this upcoming year, I don't see it.

Bottom line too many what if's, question marks and maybe's for this team to be considered much improved for 2006.

 

[SSOG]

Buffalo finished 2004 as the hottest team in the league, by far.

i am a Bills homer and i will come back to address the rest of your post but i just wanted to say that one of the reason the Bills finished so strong in 2004 was the schedule. they played bad teams.

Week 6 Oct 17 W 20-13 vs Miami Dolphins

Week 7 Oct 24 L 20-6 at Baltimore Ravens

Week 8 Oct 31 W 38-14 vs Arizona Cardinals

Week 9 Nov 7 W 22-17 vs New York Jets

Week 10 Nov 14 L 29-6 at New England Patriots

Week 11 Nov 21 W 37-17 vs St. Louis Rams

Week 12 Nov 28 W 38-9 at Seattle Seahawks

Week 13 Dec 5 W 42-32 at Miami Dolphins

Week 14 Dec 12 W 37-7 vs Cleveland Browns

Week 15 Dec 19 W 33-17 at Cincinnati Bengals

Week 16 Dec 26 W 41-7 at San Francisco 49ers

Week 17 Jan 2 L 29-24 vs Pittsburgh Steelers

look at the teams they played from week 6 on. they lost to the Ravens, Patriots, and Steelers. and they should have beaten the Ravens.

the only teams they beat that were on the rise were the Seahawks, and Bengals who were still a year away from getting over the hump.

the rest of the schedule was one loser team after another.

I was going off of the data from www.footballoutsiders.com, which automatically adjusts for strength of schedule. I was actually mistaken, though- Buffalo wasn't the hottest team in the league. They were the second hottest. Buffalo's weighted DVOA was 43.0%, and Indy's was 43.1%.

Well two reasons for me as for why they won't be good this year is going to be QB play and schedule. MM made a huge mistake last year for not staying with JP, so here we are one year later and they still have no idea who will QB this team. The comparison with Eli and Carson is not a good one. For every Eli and Carson, I'll throw you Ryan Leaf and Akeli (SP) Smith. Carson was putting up pretty good passing numbers but some picks his first year playing. Eli slowly improved as he finished off his first year. JP struggled throwing for 200 yards last year, as well as throwing too many ill-adviced picks and he wasn't getting any better. As for the schedule, New England and Miami are heads better than Buffalo so there is at least three loses there. Jets might be worse than Buffalo though. Based on who they play on the road, I say they will struggle winning more than one.

I could also add in coaching staff but if this scheme generally worked in Chicago, then maybe it can here but this upcoming year, I don't see it.

Bottom line too many what if's, question marks and maybe's for this team to be considered much improved for 2006.

Alright, let's look at your Ryan Leaf and Akili Smith examples.Ryan Leaf improved his completion % by 4.7% in his second season. His ypa went up from 5.3 to 5.8. His TD:INT ratio went from 2:15 to 11:18. That's still pretty dramatic improvement.

Akili Smith... okay, Akili Smith I grant you. Akili was actually WORSE in his second season. But let's look at some other recent non-Manning, non-Palmer 1st-round QBs.

David Carr saw his comp% go up 4.1%, and his ypa go up a startling FULL YARD. His TD:INT ratio went from 9:15 to 9:13.

Joey Harrington's comp% went up 5.7%. His ypa dropped by .1. His TD:INT went from 12:16 to 17:22.

Kyle Boller's comp% went up 3.8%. His ypa dropped by .1. His TD:INT ratio went from 7:9 to 13:11.

Granted, these aren't earth-shaking stats, but they show that even BAD QBs are better in their second year than they are in their first. If anything, I view Buffalo's QB situation as improved since last year. I'm not saying it's going to be great, just better than last year.

 

[OldMilwaukee]

bump

Which message board posters, will side with the majority of national sports writers and write the Bills off this year?

I am taking note!

If your so certain, post!

Staff?