Let's talk Carnell Williams outlook for 2007 and beyond... (1 Viewer)

[ILoveMyLions]

If the Bucs address the O-Line and perhaps get Simms back next season, is that enough to expect Caddy to have a productive year? (something like 1200 yards and 6-8 TDs)

Or is he overrated and will not even be a decent value in the middle rounds next season?

Personally, I think he will have a decent year next year IF they add a couple of O-Lineman in the offseason and get healthy. Thoughts...

 

[wannabee]

I have never been a fan and thought he was overrated ... even last year. I think the poor offense this year has made it worse. But, I cannot see it getting better any time soon, especially if Gruden leaves. Too many serious question marks for my taste.

 

[LHUCKS]

Underrated, assuming they get a QB that can keep the defense honest. His schedule should also be significantly softer.

Great buy low candidate.

 

[Ron_Mexico]

Underrated, assuming they get a QB that can keep the defense honest. His schedule should also be significantly softer.Great buy low candidate.

 

[EBF]

He's been one of the most surprising disappointments this season. I think he's the best back from his draft class, but he sure hasn't looked like it this season. Maybe he'll pull a Kevin Jones and surprise us next year. At any rate, I can't say I'd target him in drafts/trades. Too much risk for the cost.

 

[davearm]

He's been one of the most surprising disappointments this season. I think he's the best back from his draft class, but he sure hasn't looked like it this season. Maybe he'll pull a Kevin Jones and surprise us next year. At any rate, I can't say I'd target him in drafts/trades. Too much risk for the cost.

Actually I think Cadillac's bust of a season was not too difficult to foresee at all. He seemed to get dinged up pretty easily last year, and he had an alarmingly high number of putrid games (outings of 19, 25, 54, 20, and 27 total yards).IMO he was the clear preseason favorite for this year's "First Round Bust" award.

 

[EBF]

He's been one of the most surprising disappointments this season. I think he's the best back from his draft class, but he sure hasn't looked like it this season. Maybe he'll pull a Kevin Jones and surprise us next year. At any rate, I can't say I'd target him in drafts/trades. Too much risk for the cost.

Actually I think Cadillac's bust of a season was not too difficult to foresee at all. He seemed to get dinged up pretty easily last year, and he had an alarmingly high number of putrid games (outings of 19, 25, 54, 20, and 27 total yards).IMO he was the clear preseason favorite for this year's "First Round Bust" award.

Hindsight is 20/20. You can just as easily say the numbers indicated that he would become the next Tomlinson. He was chosen at the same spot in the draft (1.05) and he had very similar numbers as a rookie (1178 rushing yards for Caddy vs. 1236 for LT). I am pretty stunned by his poor numbers, but now that I look at his schedule, I can see why he has struggled.

I definitely think the guy has the talent to last as a starting RB in the NFL. Unless he gets injured, his value probably won't get much lower, so he wouldn't be a bad pickup at this point.

 

[Road Warriors]

Nice topic. I'm down on Caddy until I see an NFL qb at the helm in TB. I'm curious to see the backlash in terms of ADP next year. If it follows the usual path, the pendulum will swing too far in reaction to this year, and he'll be a nice value in limited keeper & redraft leagues. I'll be looking for him around 5 next year. Earlier than that is too much risk, IMO.

All that said, if the skills around him improve, he could quickly bounce back to a top back ( around 10-13 )

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

This is definitely a case where the putrid offense is more responsible for the down year than a lack of the intrinsic ability to get it done. Caddy was pressing this year and struggled in more ways than one. He's still a true ball control back that gets stronger as the game goes on, it's just a question of his confidence and the offense's effectiveness coming back.

A player I'll be targetting in all my dynasty leagues this offseason.

 

[EBF]

And was he overrated? Of course.

One thing I've learned playing dynasty is that almost any rookie RB drafted in the first few rounds will be completely overrated if he has an even remotely decent first year. It happens every single year without fail. It's happening again this season. Look at the dynasty RB rankings. Reggie Bush, Laurence Maroney, Joseph Addai, and Maurice Drew are all ranked in the top 16. They're all ranked ahead of guys like Jamal Lewis, Cadillac Williams, and Ahman Green. Think about that for a second. A few rookies who have had a handful of good games are ranked by the consensus ahead of:

- a 27 year old back with a 2,000 yard rushing season to his credit

- a 29 year old back who is only a few years removed from a season in which he scored 20 TDs and amassed over 2,000 total yards

- a 24 year old back who was chosen in the top five and rushed for over 1,150 yards as a rookie

And it's not like all of these guys are having bad years. Ahman and Lewis are playing pretty well. That's not to mention guys like Thomas Jones, Edgerrin James, and Chester Taylor.

Bottom line is that highly-touted rookie runners tend to be grossly overrated once they show some potential. Everyone automatically thinks a rookie who has a good game is the next Jim Brown. I'm pretty sure people were already sculpting Maroney's Hall of Fame bust after he rushed for 125 yards and 2 TDs in week four.

The reality, of course, is that a few of these guys will join the elite ranks and a few will slip down into mediocrity or worse. The lesson? Don't overdraft a highly-touted rookie just because he showed some flashes in his first season. You're probably more likely to get the next William Green or Michael Bennett than LaDainian Tomlinson or Marshall Faulk.

 

[Banger]

And was he overrated? Of course.

One thing I've learned playing dynasty is that almost any rookie RB drafted in the first few rounds will be completely overrated if he has an even remotely decent first year. It happens every single year without fail. It's happening again this season. Look at the dynasty RB rankings. Reggie Bush, Laurence Maroney, Joseph Addai, and Maurice Drew are all ranked in the top 16. They're all ranked ahead of guys like Jamal Lewis, Cadillac Williams, and Ahman Green. Think about that for a second. A few rookies who have had a handful of good games are ranked by the consensus ahead of:

- a 27 year old back with a 2,000 yard rushing season to his credit

- a 29 year old back who is only a few years removed from a season in which he scored 20 TDs and amassed over 2,000 total yards

- a 24 year old back who was chosen in the top five and rushed for over 1,150 yards as a rookie

And it's not like all of these guys are having bad years. Ahman and Lewis are playing pretty well. That's not to mention guys like Thomas Jones, Edgerrin James, and Chester Taylor.

Bottom line is that highly-touted rookie runners tend to be grossly overrated once they show some potential. Everyone automatically thinks a rookie who has a good game is the next Jim Brown. I'm pretty sure people were already sculpting Maroney's Hall of Fame bust after he rushed for 125 yards and 2 TDs in week four.

The reality, of course, is that a few of these guys will join the elite ranks and a few will slip down into mediocrity or worse. The lesson? Don't overdraft a highly-touted rookie just because he showed some flashes in his first season. You're probably more likely to get the next William Green or Michael Bennett than LaDainian Tomlinson or Marshall Faulk.

Great post. I generally try to avoid these flavor of the day type RB's and go for the more tried and true backs since the downside is much less. You might not get that homerun guy but you can't go wrong hitting doubles consistently.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I like him as a value pick next year.

Need to see how the Oline & QB siutation shake out

 

[msommer]

I like him as a value pick next year. Need to see how the Oline & QB siutation shake out

Not to mention HC situation...

 

[packersfan]

I like him as a value pick next year. Need to see how the Oline & QB siutation shake out

Not to mention HC situation...

I think Gruden's the key variable here. I really think Cadillac has a chance to be next year's Kevin Jones if he gets someone to commit to him the way Martz committed to Jones in Detroit. If that happens, I think Cadillac could be a Top 10 RB. The biggest issue I've seen in terms of Cadillac's problems has been Gruden. The QB position has obviously been terrible and the line hasn't been good but I really think Gruden's lack of commitment to the running game has been the biggest impediment. That's been the difference in my opinion from Cadillac at least being a decent RB2 - given the other issues he probably never had a chance to be a legit RB1 in retrospect.

 

[Sabertooth]

Aging and weakening defense, putrid O line, no threat at QB, overrated coach - no thanks, I'll pass.

 

[davearm]

He's been one of the most surprising disappointments this season. I think he's the best back from his draft class, but he sure hasn't looked like it this season. Maybe he'll pull a Kevin Jones and surprise us next year. At any rate, I can't say I'd target him in drafts/trades. Too much risk for the cost.

Actually I think Cadillac's bust of a season was not too difficult to foresee at all. He seemed to get dinged up pretty easily last year, and he had an alarmingly high number of putrid games (outings of 19, 25, 54, 20, and 27 total yards).IMO he was the clear preseason favorite for this year's "First Round Bust" award.

Hindsight is 20/20. You can just as easily say the numbers indicated that he would become the next Tomlinson. He was chosen at the same spot in the draft (1.05) and he had very similar numbers as a rookie (1178 rushing yards for Caddy vs. 1236 for LT). I am pretty stunned by his poor numbers, but now that I look at his schedule, I can see why he has struggled.

I definitely think the guy has the talent to last as a starting RB in the NFL. Unless he gets injured, his value probably won't get much lower, so he wouldn't be a bad pickup at this point.

Don't give me "hindsight is 20/20". This scenario was not at all difficult to imagine and foresee back in August. The handwriting was on the wall from the many stinker weeks he put up last year.Look, like everyone else, on draft day I was right about some guys, and wrong about other guys. I happened to be right about this particular guy. But the point is, the folks that thought he would produce numbers worthy of a first round pick were ignoring some pretty huge red flags, IMO.

Could things have gone the other, Tomlinson way? Of course. But the odds of that happening were much lower than what actually did happen, and a completely objective pre-season analysis would have told you that.

As for next year, if he's around in the 5th round, and maybe the 4th, I'd look closely at him. IMO he's a weak RB2 and a strong RB3.

 

[Colin Dowling]

THe line is terrible and no one respects the passing game. He didn't get less talented overnight. I expect that an addition or two up front, and a solid QB would make a substantial differenc.e

 

[Sabertooth]

I see COlin still has his man-love for Caddy going.

Carnell Williams has the finest sense of balance and 6th sense (body perception) of anyone in the NFL not named Tomlinson. I agree, it will be fun to see his career unfold, but I will be extremely shocked if we ever decide that Ronnie Brown was a better selection on any level.

COlin

"In addition to the familiar five senses—touch, sight, smell, hearing, and taste—scientists know of a sixth sense called proprioception It 's the sense of where your body is in space that allows you to touch your nose even with your eyes closed. Proprioception (PRO-pree-oh-ception) also informs balance and how to put one foot in front of the other to walk without looking at your feet."

Link

Try thinking a little bit before trying to be clever...

Colin

Guess his sixth sense didn't work out too good huh?

 

[packersfan]

THe line is terrible and no one respects the passing game. He didn't get less talented overnight. I expect that an addition or two up front, and a solid QB would make a substantial differenc.e

If they re-sign Simms I'll be far less interested in Cadillac as a bounceback candidate next year.

 

[BigJim®]

This is definitely a case where the putrid offense is more responsible for the down year than a lack of the intrinsic ability to get it done. Caddy was pressing this year and struggled in more ways than one. He's still a true ball control back that gets stronger as the game goes on, it's just a question of his confidence and the offense's effectiveness coming back.A player I'll be targetting in all my dynasty leagues this offseason.

But what's the deal with the back... is it an ongoing issue (disc) like was initially mentioned? A bad back would help explain his general ineffectiveness this year.

 

[Colin Dowling]

I see COlin still has his man-love for Caddy going.

Carnell Williams has the finest sense of balance and 6th sense (body perception) of anyone in the NFL not named Tomlinson. I agree, it will be fun to see his career unfold, but I will be extremely shocked if we ever decide that Ronnie Brown was a better selection on any level.

COlin

"In addition to the familiar five senses—touch, sight, smell, hearing, and taste—scientists know of a sixth sense called proprioception It 's the sense of where your body is in space that allows you to touch your nose even with your eyes closed. Proprioception (PRO-pree-oh-ception) also informs balance and how to put one foot in front of the other to walk without looking at your feet."

Link

Try thinking a little bit before trying to be clever...

Colin

Guess his sixth sense didn't work out too good huh?

How so? There weren't any holes to run through. As I said - he didn't get less talented overnight. He has a crummy Oline and Bruce Gradkowski under center.

 

[zamboni]

THe line is terrible and no one respects the passing game. He didn't get less talented overnight. I expect that an addition or two up front, and a solid QB would make a substantial differenc.e

If they re-sign Simms I'll be far less interested in Cadillac as a bounceback candidate next year.

He won ROY with Simms at QB. I'm more concerned about the aforementioned factors of the OL, Gruden's commitment to the run, and the possibility of a goal line vulture to replace Alstott.

 

[packersfan]

THe line is terrible and no one respects the passing game. He didn't get less talented overnight. I expect that an addition or two up front, and a solid QB would make a substantial differenc.e

If they re-sign Simms I'll be far less interested in Cadillac as a bounceback candidate next year.

He won ROY with Simms at QB. I'm more concerned about the aforementioned factors of the OL, Gruden's commitment to the run, and the possibility of a goal line vulture to replace Alstott.

I'm just not a fan of Simms. I think he's a terrible QB.

 

[Colin Dowling]

As much as I thought I'd choke on my own tongue ever saying this, I actually LIKE Simms in Tampa and with Gruden. The team needs much improved QB play, but Gruden has been historically good with QBs. Simms still remains prone to throwing interceptions, which may or may not ever get corrected. But starting over with someone like Plummer or Carr might not necessarily be a step in the right direction.

 

[packersfan]

I'm not a big Plummer fan but I think he's Joe Montana compared to Simms. I have never understood the fascination with him beyond his being Phil Simms' kid. I wasn't impressed with him in college and I've seen nothing from him in the NFL that leads me to think he's a legitimate starting QB.

Carr is toast. I said last year that I thought their biggest need was for a QB. As much as they're being ripped for passing on Bush, they may really regret passing on Young or Leinart even more.

 

[Sabertooth]

I see COlin still has his man-love for Caddy going.

Carnell Williams has the finest sense of balance and 6th sense (body perception) of anyone in the NFL not named Tomlinson. I agree, it will be fun to see his career unfold, but I will be extremely shocked if we ever decide that Ronnie Brown was a better selection on any level.

COlin

"In addition to the familiar five senses—touch, sight, smell, hearing, and taste—scientists know of a sixth sense called proprioception It 's the sense of where your body is in space that allows you to touch your nose even with your eyes closed. Proprioception (PRO-pree-oh-ception) also informs balance and how to put one foot in front of the other to walk without looking at your feet."

Link

Try thinking a little bit before trying to be clever...

Colin

Guess his sixth sense didn't work out too good huh?

How so? There weren't any holes to run through. As I said - he didn't get less talented overnight. He has a crummy Oline and Bruce Gradkowski under center.

You just can't seem to see that you have Caddy overrated huh? He does have a whopping 798 yards so far. Great players don't need a great line, they create on their own. Caddy hasn't proven he can do this.

 

[Colin Dowling]

I see COlin still has his man-love for Caddy going.

Carnell Williams has the finest sense of balance and 6th sense (body perception) of anyone in the NFL not named Tomlinson. I agree, it will be fun to see his career unfold, but I will be extremely shocked if we ever decide that Ronnie Brown was a better selection on any level.

COlin

"In addition to the familiar five senses—touch, sight, smell, hearing, and taste—scientists know of a sixth sense called proprioception It 's the sense of where your body is in space that allows you to touch your nose even with your eyes closed. Proprioception (PRO-pree-oh-ception) also informs balance and how to put one foot in front of the other to walk without looking at your feet."

Link

Try thinking a little bit before trying to be clever...

Colin

Guess his sixth sense didn't work out too good huh?

How so? There weren't any holes to run through. As I said - he didn't get less talented overnight. He has a crummy Oline and Bruce Gradkowski under center.

You just can't seem to see that you have Caddy overrated huh? He does have a whopping 798 yards so far. Great players don't need a great line, they create on their own. Caddy hasn't proven he can do this.

How do you know if I have Caddy overrated? To my recollection, I don't have him "rated" anywhere except to say I still think he is a good back and I think his sub-par season this year will be the exception, not the rule, in what I expect to be a long and successful career.As for "great players don't need a great line, they create their own"...what color is the sky on your planet?

 

[zamboni]

Great players don't need a great line, they create on their own.

There's only one RB who's shown this to be true, and he's sitting at 2100+ all purpose yards and 31 TDs.

 

[Colin Dowling]

Great players don't need a great line, they create on their own.

There's only one RB who's shown this to be true, and he's sitting at 2100+ all purpose yards and 31 TDs.

He has one of the 5 best Left tackles in the NFL blocking for him...

 

[Capella]

Great players don't need a great line, they create on their own.

 

[Men-in-Cleats]

He's been one of the most surprising disappointments this season. I think he's the best back from his draft class, but he sure hasn't looked like it this season. Maybe he'll pull a Kevin Jones and surprise us next year. At any rate, I can't say I'd target him in drafts/trades. Too much risk for the cost.

Actually I think Cadillac's bust of a season was not too difficult to foresee at all. He seemed to get dinged up pretty easily last year, and he had an alarmingly high number of putrid games (outings of 19, 25, 54, 20, and 27 total yards).IMO he was the clear preseason favorite for this year's "First Round Bust" award.

Hindsight is 20/20. You can just as easily say the numbers indicated that he would become the next Tomlinson. He was chosen at the same spot in the draft (1.05) and he had very similar numbers as a rookie (1178 rushing yards for Caddy vs. 1236 for LT). I am pretty stunned by his poor numbers, but now that I look at his schedule, I can see why he has struggled.

I definitely think the guy has the talent to last as a starting RB in the NFL. Unless he gets injured, his value probably won't get much lower, so he wouldn't be a bad pickup at this point.

Don't give me "hindsight is 20/20". This scenario was not at all difficult to imagine and foresee back in August. The handwriting was on the wall from the many stinker weeks he put up last year.Look, like everyone else, on draft day I was right about some guys, and wrong about other guys. I happened to be right about this particular guy. But the point is, the folks that thought he would produce numbers worthy of a first round pick were ignoring some pretty huge red flags, IMO.

Could things have gone the other, Tomlinson way? Of course. But the odds of that happening were much lower than what actually did happen, and a completely objective pre-season analysis would have told you that.

As for next year, if he's around in the 5th round, and maybe the 4th, I'd look closely at him. IMO he's a weak RB2 and a strong RB3.

At the spot he was at in the RB rankings at the start of the year, what backs ranked similarly didn't have questionmarks? Steven Jackson had put up stinkers last year as has pretty much anybody else ranked there. At that spot question marks abound.Westbrook - was always injured in previous seasons

Chester Taylor - had never been a #1 back for a season

Thomas Jones - RBBC, questionable QB assumed

Kevin Jones - had thrown up his fair share of stinkers

McGahee - ditto and throw in a dose of questionable QB

Who exactly were these "old reliable" RB's without question marks that were available there that you picked up instead? Off the top of my head I don't know of anyone without major questionmarks that was being picked after Caddy. 20/20 hindsight works in multiple ways as you are comparing him now to guys that you already know how their seasons turned out. Think about what you knew about EVERYONE at the time, not just comparing Caddy's projections then to what others did in the season.

 

[Bollywood]

Great players don't need a great line, they create on their own.

Cadillac did NOTHING with a bad O-line.In 2002 & 2003 Tiki Barber put up 1,400 & 1,200 rushing yards respectively on what was considered a horrible O-line.What I don't see from Caddy is the vision to find the hole, ability to know when to bounce it outside or cutback in, and the ability to make the 1st guy miss and body balance . He doesn't seem to have that so called 6th sense that Westbrook, Barber, Fred Taylor, Portis, etc.... have.Hopefully I am wrong, as I own him in a Keeper.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Great players don't need a great line, they create on their own.

There's only one RB who's shown this to be true, and he's sitting at 2100+ all purpose yards and 31 TDs.

He has one of the 5 best Left tackles in the NFL blocking for him...

and an all pro center. SD's line was bad in years past, last year for one they were very banged up, and had lost Hudson Hauck, this year, with people staying heathly adjusting to another OL coach and drafting McNeil has been great. Hijack over though

 

[davearm]

He's been one of the most surprising disappointments this season. I think he's the best back from his draft class, but he sure hasn't looked like it this season. Maybe he'll pull a Kevin Jones and surprise us next year. At any rate, I can't say I'd target him in drafts/trades. Too much risk for the cost.

Actually I think Cadillac's bust of a season was not too difficult to foresee at all. He seemed to get dinged up pretty easily last year, and he had an alarmingly high number of putrid games (outings of 19, 25, 54, 20, and 27 total yards).IMO he was the clear preseason favorite for this year's "First Round Bust" award.

Hindsight is 20/20. You can just as easily say the numbers indicated that he would become the next Tomlinson. He was chosen at the same spot in the draft (1.05) and he had very similar numbers as a rookie (1178 rushing yards for Caddy vs. 1236 for LT). I am pretty stunned by his poor numbers, but now that I look at his schedule, I can see why he has struggled.

I definitely think the guy has the talent to last as a starting RB in the NFL. Unless he gets injured, his value probably won't get much lower, so he wouldn't be a bad pickup at this point.

Don't give me "hindsight is 20/20". This scenario was not at all difficult to imagine and foresee back in August. The handwriting was on the wall from the many stinker weeks he put up last year.Look, like everyone else, on draft day I was right about some guys, and wrong about other guys. I happened to be right about this particular guy. But the point is, the folks that thought he would produce numbers worthy of a first round pick were ignoring some pretty huge red flags, IMO.

Could things have gone the other, Tomlinson way? Of course. But the odds of that happening were much lower than what actually did happen, and a completely objective pre-season analysis would have told you that.

As for next year, if he's around in the 5th round, and maybe the 4th, I'd look closely at him. IMO he's a weak RB2 and a strong RB3.

At the spot he was at in the RB rankings at the start of the year, what backs ranked similarly didn't have questionmarks? Steven Jackson had put up stinkers last year as has pretty much anybody else ranked there. At that spot question marks abound.Westbrook - was always injured in previous seasons

Chester Taylor - had never been a #1 back for a season

Thomas Jones - RBBC, questionable QB assumed

Kevin Jones - had thrown up his fair share of stinkers

McGahee - ditto and throw in a dose of questionable QB

Who exactly were these "old reliable" RB's without question marks that were available there that you picked up instead? Off the top of my head I don't know of anyone without major questionmarks that was being picked after Caddy. 20/20 hindsight works in multiple ways as you are comparing him now to guys that you already know how their seasons turned out. Think about what you knew about EVERYONE at the time, not just comparing Caddy's projections then to what others did in the season.

I *am* thinking about what I knew about EVERYONE at the time.This year in redrafts in which I was picking outside of the top 4 slots, the only RBs I considered were Rudi and Stephen Jackson. If either was there for me, great. If they were both gone (which was usually the case), I'd shift to Manning or Smith/Holt/Chad, and come back with Portis, Westbrook or Parker in the second. The other late-first, early-second RBs with serious questionmarks like Brown, Jordan, Edge, Caddy, KJones, McGahee and CTaylor were not really even on my radar at all.

So I'm not applying 20/20 hindsight here. Just pointing out that the warning signs were there from the beginning with Caddy. You either spotted them, and avoided him at his ADP, or you were left surprised by an outcome that (IMO) wasn't that surprising at all.

 

[zamboni]

Great players don't need a great line, they create on their own.

There's only one RB who's shown this to be true, and he's sitting at 2100+ all purpose yards and 31 TDs.

He has one of the 5 best Left tackles in the NFL blocking for him...

I was talking about his first few years, when he produced big numbers despite who was blocking for him (or playing QB).

 

[Sabertooth]

I see COlin still has his man-love for Caddy going.

Carnell Williams has the finest sense of balance and 6th sense (body perception) of anyone in the NFL not named Tomlinson. I agree, it will be fun to see his career unfold, but I will be extremely shocked if we ever decide that Ronnie Brown was a better selection on any level.

COlin

"In addition to the familiar five senses—touch, sight, smell, hearing, and taste—scientists know of a sixth sense called proprioception It 's the sense of where your body is in space that allows you to touch your nose even with your eyes closed. Proprioception (PRO-pree-oh-ception) also informs balance and how to put one foot in front of the other to walk without looking at your feet."

Link

Try thinking a little bit before trying to be clever...

Colin

Guess his sixth sense didn't work out too good huh?

How so? There weren't any holes to run through. As I said - he didn't get less talented overnight. He has a crummy Oline and Bruce Gradkowski under center.

You just can't seem to see that you have Caddy overrated huh? He does have a whopping 798 yards so far. Great players don't need a great line, they create on their own. Caddy hasn't proven he can do this.

How do you know if I have Caddy overrated? To my recollection, I don't have him "rated" anywhere except to say I still think he is a good back and I think his sub-par season this year will be the exception, not the rule, in what I expect to be a long and successful career.As for "great players don't need a great line, they create their own"...what color is the sky on your planet?

Honolulu Blue

 

[Liquid Tension]

He's been one of the most surprising disappointments this season. I think he's the best back from his draft class, but he sure hasn't looked like it this season. Maybe he'll pull a Kevin Jones and surprise us next year. At any rate, I can't say I'd target him in drafts/trades. Too much risk for the cost.

Really? Have you watched Ronnie Brown play? Caddy has very much underperformed, but he has some holes in his game and would rather run into guys rather than around them and for a guy his size that will lead to injuries. If he had a better OL, he would be much better fantasy wise, but talent wise Ronnie is the better all around NFL player.

 

[Josh the FunkDOC]

Alright then, a few things...

First off, for the most part, running backs DO need a good line to be effective. But the statement that the great ones do not has some merit to it; witness Gale Sayers, O.J., Walter Payton in the Bears' down years, Barry Sanders, and LDT in his first couple years when the Chargers had nobody blocking for him.

Now, to get back on topic, I didn't like Caddy this year and am staying the hell away from him in the future. Why?

1. He is injury-prone. This is obvious.

2. The team's situation is a mess with the line, QB, etc. Again, we already covered this. What nobody has mentioned though...

3. ...is that he puts up most of his numbers against terrible defenses. In his rookie year, once you adjust for schedule, he was not actually very good, and this year he is among the worst RBs in the league.

Now, granted, he can't possibly be THIS bad for fantasy next year, but I think people are expecting too much of a bounce-back. He'll still likely go in the 2nd round somewhere, which is too high for my tastes. In my view, he is a quality RB3 that you can plug in for certain matchups, but not a reliable starter. I'm with the NFL Matchup crew on this one - Ronnie Brown has been and will continue to be the better pro, regardless of perceived "talent".

 

[Biabreakable]

Some absolute geniuses in this thread who saw so obviously how Caddy sucked and never should have been considered a good Rb based off of his performance in 2005.

+----------+-------------+--------+----+| WK OPP | RSH YD | RECYD | TD |+----------+-------------+--------+----+| 1 min | 27 148 | 0 | 1 || 2 buf | 24 128 | 0 | 1 || 3 gnb | 37 158 | 0 | 0 || 4 det | 11 13 | 6 | 0 || 8 sfo | 13 20 | 5 | 0 || 9 car | 11 29 | 25 | 0 || 10 was | 10 20 | 0 | 0 || 11 atl | 19 116 | 13 | 1 || 12 chi | 20 84 | 7 | 0 || 13 nor | 22 96 | 7 | 0 || 14 car | 29 112 | 4 | 2 || 15 nwe | 14 23 | 4 | 0 || 16 atl | 31 150 | 10 | 1 || 17 nor | 22 81 | 0 | 0 |+----------+-------------+--------+----+| TOTAL | 290 1178 | 81 | 6 |+----------+-------------+--------+----+

I mean what were people thinking?He is obviously injury prone because he got hurt after that 37 carry game. What a pathetic 4 games he had in row while nursing his injuries. He only managed 1259 total yards and 6TD as a rookie. I have no idea how people couldn't see those 11 good games were a fluke. Just look at the game against the Patriots and how Caddy got shut down. You would think that people expected a rookie player to improve after a year of experience. Wow where did they get that idea from?The writing was definitly on the wall how Gruden would give up on the run so quickly also in 2006 based off of how he used Williams in 2005. Did they think he would get the ball close to 20 times a game or somthing?Caddy's good games were only against poor defenses too like the Bears and Carolina. How could you not read the signs?Williams is not talented enough to do well playing behind a bad offensive line either. The Bucs sent how many Offensive linemen to the pro bowl in 2005 again?People who drafted him at the end of the 1st round or early 2nd sure missed the boat on this one. How could they not see such a reduction in carries for Williams coming? It's not like he did well when he got the ball over 18 times.

 

[Sabertooth]

Some absolute geniuses in this thread who saw so obviously how Caddy sucked and never should have been considered a good Rb based off of his performance in 2005.

+----------+-------------+--------+----+| WK OPP | RSH YD | RECYD | TD |+----------+-------------+--------+----+| 1 min | 27 148 | 0 | 1 || 2 buf | 24 128 | 0 | 1 || 3 gnb | 37 158 | 0 | 0 || 4 det | 11 13 | 6 | 0 || 8 sfo | 13 20 | 5 | 0 || 9 car | 11 29 | 25 | 0 || 10 was | 10 20 | 0 | 0 || 11 atl | 19 116 | 13 | 1 || 12 chi | 20 84 | 7 | 0 || 13 nor | 22 96 | 7 | 0 || 14 car | 29 112 | 4 | 2 || 15 nwe | 14 23 | 4 | 0 || 16 atl | 31 150 | 10 | 1 || 17 nor | 22 81 | 0 | 0 |+----------+-------------+--------+----+| TOTAL | 290 1178 | 81 | 6 |+----------+-------------+--------+----+

I mean what were people thinking?He is obviously injury prone because he got hurt after that 37 carry game. What a pathetic 4 games he had in row while nursing his injuries. He only managed 1259 total yards and 6TD as a rookie. I have no idea how people couldn't see those 11 good games were a fluke. Just look at the game against the Patriots and how Caddy got shut down. You would think that people expected a rookie player to improve after a year of experience. Wow where did they get that idea from?The writing was definitly on the wall how Gruden would give up on the run so quickly also in 2006 based off of how he used Williams in 2005. Did they think he would get the ball close to 20 times a game or somthing?Caddy's good games were only against poor defenses too like the Bears and Carolina. How could you not read the signs?Williams is not talented enough to do well playing behind a bad offensive line either. The Bucs sent how many Offensive linemen to the pro bowl in 2005 again?People who drafted him at the end of the 1st round or early 2nd sure missed the boat on this one. How could they not see such a reduction in carries for Williams coming? It's not like he did well when he got the ball over 18 times.

His per carry average is 3.5 yards. And since when is 18 carries some kind of benchmark? People who drafted Caddy this season got burned, plain and simple.

 

[Colin Dowling]

So did people who drafted Shaun Alexander.

 

[Biabreakable]

Some absolute geniuses in this thread who saw so obviously how Caddy sucked and never should have been considered a good Rb based off of his performance in 2005.

+----------+-------------+--------+----+| WK OPP | RSH YD | RECYD | TD |+----------+-------------+--------+----+| 1 min | 27 148 | 0 | 1 || 2 buf | 24 128 | 0 | 1 || 3 gnb | 37 158 | 0 | 0 || 4 det | 11 13 | 6 | 0 || 8 sfo | 13 20 | 5 | 0 || 9 car | 11 29 | 25 | 0 || 10 was | 10 20 | 0 | 0 || 11 atl | 19 116 | 13 | 1 || 12 chi | 20 84 | 7 | 0 || 13 nor | 22 96 | 7 | 0 || 14 car | 29 112 | 4 | 2 || 15 nwe | 14 23 | 4 | 0 || 16 atl | 31 150 | 10 | 1 || 17 nor | 22 81 | 0 | 0 |+----------+-------------+--------+----+| TOTAL | 290 1178 | 81 | 6 |+----------+-------------+--------+----+

I mean what were people thinking?He is obviously injury prone because he got hurt after that 37 carry game. What a pathetic 4 games he had in row while nursing his injuries. He only managed 1259 total yards and 6TD as a rookie. I have no idea how people couldn't see those 11 good games were a fluke. Just look at the game against the Patriots and how Caddy got shut down. You would think that people expected a rookie player to improve after a year of experience. Wow where did they get that idea from?The writing was definitly on the wall how Gruden would give up on the run so quickly also in 2006 based off of how he used Williams in 2005. Did they think he would get the ball close to 20 times a game or somthing?Caddy's good games were only against poor defenses too like the Bears and Carolina. How could you not read the signs?Williams is not talented enough to do well playing behind a bad offensive line either. The Bucs sent how many Offensive linemen to the pro bowl in 2005 again?People who drafted him at the end of the 1st round or early 2nd sure missed the boat on this one. How could they not see such a reduction in carries for Williams coming? It's not like he did well when he got the ball over 18 times.

His per carry average is 3.5 yards. And since when is 18 carries some kind of benchmark? People who drafted Caddy this season got burned, plain and simple.

18x17 = 306 or the closest per game to 300 carries for a healthy season. People ushualy say 20 carries a game as a bench mark coz its a nice round number but the truth is its very rare a Rb averages that many per game. 18 is a much closer to realistic number for a Rb not in a commite.Carnell Williams averaged 4 ypc in 2005 thanks for pointing out he isn't doing as well on a per yard basis this year. I would have never guessed lol.

 

[strong]

Like some above mentioned, I think head coach is going to be a big issue for Caddy's value.

Until Gruden is gone, Alstott (or some other marginally talented, large back) will get all the touches inside the 5 regardless of whether they are successful at it or not. Gruden has never used his feature back close to the goalline and I doubt Alstott's potential retirement will change that.

With Gruden around, expecting more than 5 touchdowns from Caddy is a stretch.

That said, if any other coach comes in, I think Caddy will be a bargain in round 4 next year since his touchdowns are almost certain to go up...

If Gruden's around and the Bucs bring in an OLineman or two, then a round 5 pick could offer decent returns but probably nothing special.

 

[Sabertooth]

So did people who drafted Shaun Alexander.

 

[Men-in-Cleats]

He's been one of the most surprising disappointments this season. I think he's the best back from his draft class, but he sure hasn't looked like it this season. Maybe he'll pull a Kevin Jones and surprise us next year. At any rate, I can't say I'd target him in drafts/trades. Too much risk for the cost.

Actually I think Cadillac's bust of a season was not too difficult to foresee at all. He seemed to get dinged up pretty easily last year, and he had an alarmingly high number of putrid games (outings of 19, 25, 54, 20, and 27 total yards).IMO he was the clear preseason favorite for this year's "First Round Bust" award.

Hindsight is 20/20. You can just as easily say the numbers indicated that he would become the next Tomlinson. He was chosen at the same spot in the draft (1.05) and he had very similar numbers as a rookie (1178 rushing yards for Caddy vs. 1236 for LT). I am pretty stunned by his poor numbers, but now that I look at his schedule, I can see why he has struggled.

I definitely think the guy has the talent to last as a starting RB in the NFL. Unless he gets injured, his value probably won't get much lower, so he wouldn't be a bad pickup at this point.

Don't give me "hindsight is 20/20". This scenario was not at all difficult to imagine and foresee back in August. The handwriting was on the wall from the many stinker weeks he put up last year.Look, like everyone else, on draft day I was right about some guys, and wrong about other guys. I happened to be right about this particular guy. But the point is, the folks that thought he would produce numbers worthy of a first round pick were ignoring some pretty huge red flags, IMO.

Could things have gone the other, Tomlinson way? Of course. But the odds of that happening were much lower than what actually did happen, and a completely objective pre-season analysis would have told you that.

As for next year, if he's around in the 5th round, and maybe the 4th, I'd look closely at him. IMO he's a weak RB2 and a strong RB3.

At the spot he was at in the RB rankings at the start of the year, what backs ranked similarly didn't have questionmarks? Steven Jackson had put up stinkers last year as has pretty much anybody else ranked there. At that spot question marks abound.Westbrook - was always injured in previous seasons

Chester Taylor - had never been a #1 back for a season

Thomas Jones - RBBC, questionable QB assumed

Kevin Jones - had thrown up his fair share of stinkers

McGahee - ditto and throw in a dose of questionable QB

Who exactly were these "old reliable" RB's without question marks that were available there that you picked up instead? Off the top of my head I don't know of anyone without major questionmarks that was being picked after Caddy. 20/20 hindsight works in multiple ways as you are comparing him now to guys that you already know how their seasons turned out. Think about what you knew about EVERYONE at the time, not just comparing Caddy's projections then to what others did in the season.

I *am* thinking about what I knew about EVERYONE at the time.This year in redrafts in which I was picking outside of the top 4 slots, the only RBs I considered were Rudi and Stephen Jackson. If either was there for me, great. If they were both gone (which was usually the case), I'd shift to Manning or Smith/Holt/Chad, and come back with Portis, Westbrook or Parker in the second. The other late-first, early-second RBs with serious questionmarks like Brown, Jordan, Edge, Caddy, KJones, McGahee and CTaylor were not really even on my radar at all.

So I'm not applying 20/20 hindsight here. Just pointing out that the warning signs were there from the beginning with Caddy. You either spotted them, and avoided him at his ADP, or you were left surprised by an outcome that (IMO) wasn't that surprising at all.

I wasn't in any leagues where Caddy went before Rudi or Stephen Jackson so that sort of throws off what you said before. Most people would have taken either of those two over Caddy. To say that there was a drop off after the first 6 guys I wouldn't really argue with you on that. I won't agree with you that any of the guys you listed as your preference had any fewer red flags than Caddy did at the start of the year. Portis was already injured at the start of the season so that was a major red flag and you probably screwed yourself if you drafted him (unless Betts saved your bacon). If you drafted before that injury Portis probably went top 5 and well before Caddy. Parker hadn't shown much nose for the goalline last year and had thrown out a few stinkers as well. Nobody knew how he'd handle being the full time back and not part of a committee. Westbrook had never completed a full season without being dinged up for extended periods of time and threw up a few stinkers last year as well. Buckhalter was back to steal carries from him as well. These three had just as many red flags as Caddy did so I see you as getting a bit lucky in picking the right guys from similarly ranked players but I don't see you as having avoided risk by preferring these three over Caddy.As for the WR's, Holt has had two good games since week 6, Chad Johnson waited until week 10 to perform like a #1 fantasy WR, and Steve Smith ended up doing pretty well after missing the first two games to injury but was an awfully risky pick at that spot since people knew he was injured and that it had the potential to be a nagging injury. Don't think your strategy was a faulty one, just don't agree that you were taking any safer of a route than Caddy drafters were.

 

[davearm]

I wasn't in any leagues where Caddy went before Rudi or Stephen Jackson so that sort of throws off what you said before. Most people would have taken either of those two over Caddy. To say that there was a drop off after the first 6 guys I wouldn't really argue with you on that. I won't agree with you that any of the guys you listed as your preference had any fewer red flags than Caddy did at the start of the year. Portis was already injured at the start of the season so that was a major red flag and you probably screwed yourself if you drafted him (unless Betts saved your bacon). If you drafted before that injury Portis probably went top 5 and well before Caddy. Parker hadn't shown much nose for the goalline last year and had thrown out a few stinkers as well. Nobody knew how he'd handle being the full time back and not part of a committee. Westbrook had never completed a full season without being dinged up for extended periods of time and threw up a few stinkers last year as well. Buckhalter was back to steal carries from him as well. These three had just as many red flags as Caddy did so I see you as getting a bit lucky in picking the right guys from similarly ranked players but I don't see you as having avoided risk by preferring these three over Caddy.As for the WR's, Holt has had two good games since week 6, Chad Johnson waited until week 10 to perform like a #1 fantasy WR, and Steve Smith ended up doing pretty well after missing the first two games to injury but was an awfully risky pick at that spot since people knew he was injured and that it had the potential to be a nagging injury. Don't think your strategy was a faulty one, just don't agree that you were taking any safer of a route than Caddy drafters were.

I'm not sure what more I can say bud.Early on in this thread, EBF said, "he's been one of the most surprising disappointments this season".I'm just one guy that's not surprised at all, and I thought it was a bad pick at the time when Caddy was going off the board in the late first round.The warning signs were there... a history of disappearing; a bad OLine, a shaky QB, a coach that's not committed to a feature back, a team that's likely to play low-scoring games.Granted, I didn't expect him to be 1-TD-all-year bad, but I'm not the least bit surprised that he's underperformed his ADP by a wide margin.

 

[Assani Fisher]

He's been one of the most surprising disappointments this season. I think he's the best back from his draft class, but he sure hasn't looked like it this season. Maybe he'll pull a Kevin Jones and surprise us next year. At any rate, I can't say I'd target him in drafts/trades. Too much risk for the cost.

:( Really? Have you watched Ronnie Brown play? Caddy has very much underperformed, but he has some holes in his game and would rather run into guys rather than around them and for a guy his size that will lead to injuries. If he had a better OL, he would be much better fantasy wise, but talent wise Ronnie is the better all around NFL player.

ummmm...Frank Gore, guys?

 

[Colin Dowling]

He's been one of the most surprising disappointments this season. I think he's the best back from his draft class, but he sure hasn't looked like it this season. Maybe he'll pull a Kevin Jones and surprise us next year. At any rate, I can't say I'd target him in drafts/trades. Too much risk for the cost.

Really? Have you watched Ronnie Brown play? Caddy has very much underperformed, but he has some holes in his game and would rather run into guys rather than around them and for a guy his size that will lead to injuries. If he had a better OL, he would be much better fantasy wise, but talent wise Ronnie is the better all around NFL player.

ummmm...Frank Gore, guys?

Excellent work.

 

[Cenobite]

I'm in a PPR league and for the last 2 years Gruden has talked about getting Caddy more involved in the passing game. It hasn't happened and nothing I've seen indicates that things will change. In PPR leagues a one dimensional back can hurt your team. Feast or famine and, in Caddy's case, it has been famine. addy reminds me of Tim Biakabatuka (when healthy) in terms of fantasy production. I was high on Caddy last year and hopeful this year but I will be avoiding him next year unless there is roster space on my bench. The chance of a surprise or bounce back year is always there, see-Droughns last year, if you're the #1 RB on your team.