Let's talk Julius Jones (1 Viewer)

[switz]

Enough with the lame references to look alikes...

Julius Jones:

Here's what we know. He played for the Dallas Cowboys for 4 years, and never saw 300 carries. His best year was his rookie year, where he played the last 8 games of the season, and despite having fresh legs, he managed a meager 4.2 YPC.

The following year, the Cowboys were so disenchanted they brought in Marion Barber. Barber was a later round pick, who split time in college, and wasn't seen by most of the NFL as starting material.

However, in Barber's rookie season, it was immediately apparent that Barber was a much better RB than Jones. For the next two seasons, the two RBs platooned, and Jones put up 4.1 (to Barber's 3.9) and 3.9 (to Barber's 4.8) YPC.

In 2007, Barber finally took over the dominant role in the platoon, and Jones YPC fell even further to 3.6.

Now Jones has been shipped off the SEA, who arguably have a far inferior line to Dallas. He is competing with Maurice Morris and TJ Duckett.

Duckett, like Jones, was a higher draft pick who hasn't panned out. His first three teams, unlike Dallas, were absolute messes, in ATL, WAS and DET. It's questionable whether Duckett ever had an opportunity. Still, in limited attempts (<200/season) he has a better career YPC.

Morris was drafted as a backup, and has played in spot roles and fill in duties mostly. Toward the end of last season Morris got his chance to play, and impressed the coaches so much that they brought in Jones and Duckett. Yet, over the last 9 games he averaged 5.2 YPC. He did have 4 of those 9 games with <4.0 YPC, but that's only on par with what Jones has done for his entire career.

So, what are the arguments for Jones to actually beat out Duckett or Morris?

 

[perry147]

I am not very high on Jones because like the OP said the OL is worse than Dallas.

 

[Abraham]

I swear there is a thread about 2 weeks old titled, "Let's talk about Julius Jones..."

 

[shadyridr]

Enough with the lame references to look alikes...So, what are the arguments for Jones to actually beat out Duckett or Morris?

1. 2. Jones stinks but hes better than Morris & Duckett

 

[zamboni]

I'm not down on him as much as many.

Still, I don't see how he can underperform in such a favorable system (and under Parcells) and all of a sudden emerge in a seemingly declining system with a head coach that probably is spending most of his time analyzing retirement properties.

 

[Sweet Love]

I think he will have Dallas missing him. Felix Jones cannot compare...

 

[TheFanatic]

I'm not down on him as much as many.Still, I don't see how he can underperform in such a favorable system (and under Parcells) and all of a sudden emerge in a seemingly declining system with a head coach that probably is spending most of his time analyzing retirement properties.

This is sort of the way I see it. I think he will be in the later half of the RB2 range. Maybe 15-20. Nothing spectacular but somebody worthy of not only a roster spot but a start here and there if not more. Morris and Ducket aren't threats. Seattle will run JJ. What worries me the most is the team on a downturn, particularly that line. BTW, I am not a JJ owner nor have I ever been a JJ owner...

 

[TheFanatic]

I think he will have Dallas missing him. Felix Jones cannot compare...

I'm not so sure about that.

 

[Ridgelake]

Jones' success will somewhat depend on how Seattle uses him.

JJ would be excellent in a 1-cut running system like Denver. He has excellent acceleration but not-the-best vision. Or at least he was coached heavily in Dallas to follow the prescribed hole and not free lance. He was far more robotic in his later seasons versus his rookie year.

He does very well in draw plays but struggles in traditional between-the-tackles run plays.

My recollection is that Seattle uses a traditional running system not unlike Dallas'. That may have been because Alexander was best in that system and they were trying to use him optimally.

I just don't know how Seattle plans to use JJ. It will make a big difference in his effectiveness.

 

[travdogg]

I think he will have Dallas missing him. Felix Jones cannot compare...

Felix>Julius.Julius will probably be a decent RB3 this year but he doesn't have much upside with Duckett likely to steal goal-line work.

 

[cacksman]

So, what are the arguments for Jones to actually beat out Duckett or Morris?

Oh I don't know, maybe because he is the starter.

 

[switz]

I think he will have Dallas missing him. Felix Jones cannot compare...

That's fair, but it probably ought to be in a different thread, as this is about the Jones in SEA, not the Jones in DAL.

 

[perry147]

Let's not forget the Jones was at one time kind of injury prone.

 

[Kit Fisto]

I'm not down on him as much as many.Still, I don't see how he can underperform in such a favorable system (and under Parcells) and all of a sudden emerge in a seemingly declining system with a head coach that probably is spending most of his time analyzing retirement properties.

 

[TheFanatic]

So, what are the arguments for Jones to actually beat out Duckett or Morris?

Oh I don't know, maybe because he is the starter.

Or, the fact that he's competing with TJ Ducket and Maurice Morris? It's not like they have a couple former 1K yard backs or probowlers to compete with. JJ isn't going to the HOF anytime soon, but he's much better than those two...

 

[Sweet Love]

I think he will have Dallas missing him. Felix Jones cannot compare...

I'm not so sure about that.

I was just goofing...I know Switz has the "man-love" for Felix, so I thought he may bite...seems he knows better .Personally, I think Julius is a decent running back (very similar to his brother) and see no reason, if given the keys, why he cannot thrive and be a 1100 yd. 5-6 TD guy. I guess that would be good for RB 18-20 and a light RB2 on your squad. I think the presence of Barber hurt his chances of getting short yardage looks versus his inability to get those yards. While Duckett has a little nose for the endzone, he is no Barber III.

 

[bostonfred]

A couple arguments in favor of Julius Jones:

- He complained of Bill Parcells asking him to change his running style to fit what Dallas wanted him to do.

- Not all rush attempts are the same. Barber was obviously not just a third down back, but he may have gotten "better" carries, while Jones' "worse" carries contributed to his poor YPC.

- When he was in Green Bay, Holmgren overpaid to get a little known third round pick who fumbled too much. He then turned him into Ahman Green

- Seattle uses the west coast offense, which may give Jones some swing passes.

- There's really nobody else in Seattle who is good enough to get significant carries, on a team that usually has a competitive offense.

- Holmgren has said on more than one occasion that he doesn't like RBBC, or even goal line backs, and wants one lead back.

Biggest things against Julius Jones:

- After losing talent from their offensive line the year prior, they lost Pollard, Hackett, and may lose Branch for a substantial amount of time depending on how he recovers from ACL surgery results. None of those guys were major contributors for very long last year, but they're thinner on offensive talent all around than they were during Alexander's heyday.

- Duckett has been a goal line vulture in the past. However, he hasn't been good for a while and Holmgren has said that he doesn't like the idea of a specialized goal line back.

- Maurice Morris has been playing with this team for years, and may be able to win the starting job outright. However, he hasn't looked that great when Alexander was hurt, which makes Jones the presumptive favorite for the job.

I haven't been following Jones or Seattle all that closely, but every year it seems like a guy with decent talent and a great situation gets overlooked in the draft, then blows up. Priest Holmes hadn't shown much pedigree before arriving in Kansas City, and struggled in his first couple weeks as starter. Larry Johnson didn't look that good until he took over the starting job. You see it all the time when defensive players move from a 3-4 to a 4-3 or vice versa. For Julius Jones, it might not be pleurisy, so much as the fact that he was misused for the first couple years and then overshadowed by a more talented back in Barber. I'm not expecting huge things from him, but I can see him being a very good back this year.

 

[switz]

So, what are the arguments for Jones to actually beat out Duckett or Morris?

Oh I don't know, maybe because he is the starter.

Or, the fact that he's competing with TJ Ducket and Maurice Morris? It's not like they have a couple former 1K yard backs or probowlers to compete with. JJ isn't going to the HOF anytime soon, but he's much better than those two...

Is he really any better than Morris?Off the cuff, most people would be quick to say yes, but when you actually look what each has done across their career, do the stats back it up?What evidence is there that Jones is better than MoMo? I agree he'll get the first shot, no doubt. But he was terrible in DAL, far worse than MoMo was in SEA last year.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

Alexander was the softest RB in the league last year. Julius Jones wasn't trailing by much.

 

[Captain_Apocalypse]

I don't see how he could be worse than Alexander last year. Barring injury that alone could be pretty good. Not spectacular, but if he plays with emotion and toughness it could work out. And Seattles D looks to be comming along pretty well. If they get ahead in games they could definitely run more in the 4th quarter. BTW they say they want to run a more "balanced" O this season but I am not convinced they have the weapons for it. Receiving core and TE are all kinda iffy in one way or another. They could end up throwing to the backs a lot.

 

[bostonfred]

BTW they say they want to run a more "balanced" O this season but I am not convinced they have the weapons for it. Receiving core and TE are all kinda iffy in one way or another. They could end up throwing to the backs a lot.

This is probably the biggest concern. The whole offense seems to be a little suckier than it used to be. I guess the correlary to the more frequently used expression is that a sinking tide lowers all boats.

 

[Bri]

If he has faith in them, Holmgren's backs get a good # of carries. That's what Julius has been looking for.

I don't know why you'd write him off without the chance to see what he can do.

Also, if Barber was so sure to be a good RB he wouldn't have gone in the 3rd.

 

[mad sweeney]

A couple arguments in favor of Julius Jones:

- He complained of Bill Parcells asking him to change his running style to fit what Dallas wanted him to do.

- Not all rush attempts are the same. Barber was obviously not just a third down back, but he may have gotten "better" carries, while Jones' "worse" carries contributed to his poor YPC.

- When he was in Green Bay, Holmgren overpaid to get a little known third round pick who fumbled too much. He then turned him into Ahman Green

- Seattle uses the west coast offense, which may give Jones some swing passes.

- There's really nobody else in Seattle who is good enough to get significant carries, on a team that usually has a competitive offense.

- Holmgren has said on more than one occasion that he doesn't like RBBC, or even goal line backs, and wants one lead back.

Biggest things against Julius Jones:

- After losing talent from their offensive line the year prior, they lost Pollard, Hackett, and may lose Branch for a substantial amount of time depending on how he recovers from ACL surgery results. None of those guys were major contributors for very long last year, but they're thinner on offensive talent all around than they were during Alexander's heyday.

- Duckett has been a goal line vulture in the past. However, he hasn't been good for a while and Holmgren has said that he doesn't like the idea of a specialized goal line back.

- Maurice Morris has been playing with this team for years, and may be able to win the starting job outright. However, he hasn't looked that great when Alexander was hurt, which makes Jones the presumptive favorite for the job.

I haven't been following Jones or Seattle all that closely, but every year it seems like a guy with decent talent and a great situation gets overlooked in the draft, then blows up. Priest Holmes hadn't shown much pedigree before arriving in Kansas City, and struggled in his first couple weeks as starter. Larry Johnson didn't look that good until he took over the starting job. You see it all the time when defensive players move from a 3-4 to a 4-3 or vice versa. For Julius Jones, it might not be pleurisy, so much as the fact that he was misused for the first couple years and then overshadowed by a more talented back in Barber. I'm not expecting huge things from him, but I can see him being a very good back this year.

First of all, Holmgren was the Seahawks coach (since 99) when Ahman Green was traded (2000). So he gets credit for Green going to GB, but not the way you think he does and he certainly gets no credit for turning Green into a stud. Second, losing Pollard is like losing Alexander. His absence will help more than his presence would. Pollard was a mistake and contributed very little. Carlson will be his superior in every way on the Seahawks line. Furthermore with Wahle in at LG and a better RG in there plus a new OL coach, the line will be much better (barring injury) than it was before. Probably not Dallas good, but then again they have the pieces there to possibly be that good. Add in FBs Schmiit and Weaver then there could be holes even SA could've gotten 3 yards from. The WR situation is a mess but Hass is getting better yearly and he did alright with Engram and Burleson as his main targets.

Third, Morris has had two years of injured SA to reach out and grab that starter's spot. He doesn't have what it takes. He's at best an above average backup, but not starter material. Jones was brought in to be the starter so it's his job to lose. I would say there's a 95% chance he remains there. I don't care if he's considered soft by some. When you replace the softest RB in the league, you're automatically better.

Otherwise I agree, he could be a good, overlooked value pick, though with so many big backs (Weaver, Schmitt, Duckett) there could be some vulture issues to deal with. I think we can throw away a lot of Holmgrenisms such as no Gl back and such here in his last year. He's not picking out cabinets for a Napa mansion, he wants to win another SB and this is it. If a GL back gets him more TDs than sticking with one guy then that's what we'll see. I also expect a LOT more passes to the HB this season.

 

[Bri]

BTW they say they want to run a more "balanced" O this season but I am not convinced they have the weapons for it. Receiving core and TE are all kinda iffy in one way or another. They could end up throwing to the backs a lot.

This is probably the biggest concern. The whole offense seems to be a little suckier than it used to be. I guess the correlary to the more frequently used expression is that a sinking tide lowers all boats.

It hasn't been good since we all thought Jackson and Koren were excellent WRs.Seemed like a large percent of last year's best WR games came from Burleson and Engram. I know Engram's whining but aren't they still there? I have been surprised at his production this late in his career but Engram's been real good. Similarly, try rationalizing Burleson's last year in Minny vs the rest of his career. He really looked like he'd become a real good WR. He perked up late last year(last 5 weeks? 6?)Obamanu? (Can never recall his name) Bloom goes on about and he does look like a good young potential guy worth getting a shot as the 3rd WR mixed in.There's no thoroughbreds but there are guys that have gotten it done.

 

[Bri]

First of all, Holmgren was the Seahawks coach (since 99) when Ahman Green was traded (2000). So he gets credit for Green going to GB, but not the way you think he does and he certainly gets no credit for turning Green into a stud.

I think it was on his recommendation but....you're right

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Morris is not getting nearly the respect he deserves, although I do think Julius is indeed the prohibitive favorite to start. MoMo averaged 4.5 a carry last year on 140 carries, which is enough to dismiss the average being based on a few fluky carries. He also showed some explosiveness on TDs on 29, 34, and 45 yards. In 2006, he started slow after SA went down, but hit his stride with a 138 yard game and a 124 yard game right before Alexander returned.

I would imagine a lot of people are thinking of Duckett as the late round hedge to a Julius pick in the mid rounds, but I think Morris is the better call.

On JJ, he did have two of his nine career 100 yard games at Qwest field, including his career day - a 198 yarder with three TDs, so you know something about that place agrees with him.

 

[LarryAllen'sJockstrap]

Disclaimer: Cowboys homer.

Pros

- Burst; he's got a good burst and can break off long runs if he gets past the LOS.

- Hard Runner; say what you will and he usually does go down on contact, but it's not from a lack of effort. He will attack the line and take on defenders at the second level.

Cons

- Vision; OMG, I don't think there is a back in the NFL with worse vision. I have never seen a player get dropped behind the line so often. If the play is to run off the left guard, he is going to run off left guard even if the DT has bowled the LG over and is in the backfield. He blamed it on Parcells after 06, but nothing changed last year.

- Breaking Tackles; if he gets a little head of steam, he can ward off smaller LBs and DBs, but usually once someone sticks him, he goes down.

 

[switz]

I don't know why you'd write him off without the chance to see what he can do.

Haven't we seen what he can do? 250+ carries two seasons straight behind one of the best run-blocking OLs in the NFL? Yes, Barber cut into his touches, but do you think that would have happened if JJ was that good?

Also, if Barber was so sure to be a good RB he wouldn't have gone in the 3rd.

Agreed - I don't think anyone said he was sure to be good at all.

 

[LarryAllen'sJockstrap]

Also, if Barber was so sure to be a good RB he wouldn't have gone in the 3rd.

Agreed - I don't think anyone said he was sure to be good at all.

Barber falling to the 4th was odd. A number of scouting services (Scout.com) had Barber pegged as a second round talent. His reviews all said he was a good runner/receiver with feature back potential. The knock on him was speed; he ran in the 4.5s at the combine and his pro-day.Another factor was that 2005 was the year of the RB with a lot of teams grabbing their "elite" RBs early. Ronnie Brown, Benson, Caddy, and JJ Arrington all were top 44 picks.What is somehwat surprising was the other, "non-elite" RBs drafted in fron of Barber that year:Eric SheltonFrank GoreVernand MorencyRyan MoatsMaurice Clarrett

 

[switz]

Also, if Barber was so sure to be a good RB he wouldn't have gone in the 3rd.

Agreed - I don't think anyone said he was sure to be good at all.

Barber falling to the 4th was odd. A number of scouting services (Scout.com) had Barber pegged as a second round talent. His reviews all said he was a good runner/receiver with feature back potential. The knock on him was speed; he ran in the 4.5s at the combine and his pro-day.Another factor was that 2005 was the year of the RB with a lot of teams grabbing their "elite" RBs early. Ronnie Brown, Benson, Caddy, and JJ Arrington all were top 44 picks.What is somehwat surprising was the other, "non-elite" RBs drafted in fron of Barber that year:Eric SheltonFrank GoreVernand MorencyRyan MoatsMaurice Clarrett

The highest I saw Barber ranked was 56th, or late second round. It was a minor surprise at most to see him slide to the 4th. Gore and Clarett definitely were better prospects, but I agree the rest were all sketchy.

 

[LarryAllen'sJockstrap]

Also, if Barber was so sure to be a good RB he wouldn't have gone in the 3rd.

Agreed - I don't think anyone said he was sure to be good at all.

Barber falling to the 4th was odd. A number of scouting services (Scout.com) had Barber pegged as a second round talent. His reviews all said he was a good runner/receiver with feature back potential. The knock on him was speed; he ran in the 4.5s at the combine and his pro-day.Another factor was that 2005 was the year of the RB with a lot of teams grabbing their "elite" RBs early. Ronnie Brown, Benson, Caddy, and JJ Arrington all were top 44 picks.What is somehwat surprising was the other, "non-elite" RBs drafted in fron of Barber that year:Eric SheltonFrank GoreVernand MorencyRyan MoatsMaurice Clarrett

The highest I saw Barber ranked was 56th, or late second round. It was a minor surprise at most to see him slide to the 4th. Gore and Clarett definitely were better prospects, but I agree the rest were all sketchy.

I swear I thought I remembered both of those picks being considered reaches at the time.- Gore (3.1) had already blown out both knees, scored a six on the wonderlic and ran a 4.7 at the combine.- Clarrett (3.32) was out of football in 04, was in the middle of legal troubles and showed up to the combine at 250 and ran a 4.8.

 

[switz]

The highest I saw Barber ranked was 56th, or late second round. It was a minor surprise at most to see him slide to the 4th. Gore and Clarett definitely were better prospects, but I agree the rest were all sketchy.

I swear I thought I remembered both of those picks being considered reaches at the time.

- Gore (3.1) had already blown out both knees, scored a six on the wonderlic and ran a 4.7 at the combine.

- Clarrett (3.32) was out of football in 04, was in the middle of legal troubles and showed up to the combine at 250 and ran a 4.8.

You were right. I thought the reason they both fell to the third was because of those concerns. I thought they were both viewed as better talents, but the risks associated with them dropped them in the draft.However, according to this article, both were viewed as reaches in comparison to Barber.

Edited to include pertinent quote:

Pre-draft ratings?

Clarett and oft-injured Frank Gore of Miami (San Francisco) were lower in almost every scouting book than Marion Barber of Minnesota and Ciatrick Fason of Florida. Gore and Clarett were the first and last choices in the third round; Barber (Dallas) and Fason (Minnesota) went early in the fourth round.

 

[cstu]

The highest I saw Barber ranked was 56th, or late second round. It was a minor surprise at most to see him slide to the 4th. Gore and Clarett definitely were better prospects, but I agree the rest were all sketchy.

I swear I thought I remembered both of those picks being considered reaches at the time.

- Gore (3.1) had already blown out both knees, scored a six on the wonderlic and ran a 4.7 at the combine.

- Clarrett (3.32) was out of football in 04, was in the middle of legal troubles and showed up to the combine at 250 and ran a 4.8.

You were right. I thought the reason they both fell to the third was because of those concerns. I thought they were both viewed as better talents, but the risks associated with them dropped them in the draft.However, according to this article, both were viewed as reaches in comparison to Barber.

Edited to include pertinent quote:

Pre-draft ratings?

Clarett and oft-injured Frank Gore of Miami (San Francisco) were lower in almost every scouting book than Marion Barber of Minnesota and Ciatrick Fason of Florida. Gore and Clarett were the first and last choices in the third round; Barber (Dallas) and Fason (Minnesota) went early in the fourth round.

I remember quite a few people had Barber as the #4 back prior to the draft. I was also high on Fason and Gore has been a complete surprise to me by staying healthy.

 

[Bri]

I don't know why you'd write him off without the chance to see what he can do.

Haven't we seen what he can do? 250+ carries two seasons straight behind one of the best run-blocking OLs in the NFL? Yes, Barber cut into his touches, but do you think that would have happened if JJ was that good?

Meaning what?The better Barber got, the less Jones got carries.

If anything, Barber is the less experienced less we know about a guy here. Before last year, what did he do?

1 100+ yard game and 1 90+ yard game.

Jones on the other hand(before last year again) had 4 90+ yard games, and 8 100+ yard games including 2 that were almost 200 yards(which can't be brushed off lightly). The 2nd half of his rookie year was excellent.

Jones is a back that needs his 18 carries to get the #s. It's pretty crystal clear, his brother was the same way early on if not still. Take a look http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play...eJu01_games.htm if the Boys gave him 18 or more carries, he got 80-100 or more yards.

Guys in this thread want it to come down to avg per carry, but Parcells runs out the clock all game long some games. Even as he openned up his Os more and passed a bunch that guy always loved to have long plodding drives. Those are never good for per rush averages but can be demoralizing to a D. Prior to 07, Barber has nice avg numbers as 3rd down backs often do but he also has 5 or 6 games with less than 4 yards per carry as well.

I love Barber for 2008, don't get me wrong. I also prefer the big backs or backs that play big. This thread, however, and a glance at FBG ranking is making me think Jones is going to be a steal in 2008. I've sorta come full circle on this debate

 

[Bri]

Here's some numbers

excellent 2nd half of rookie year:

11 Sun Nov 21, 2004 L DAL @ BAL 10 30		 30 81 2.7	0 3 12 Thu Nov 25, 2004 W DAL  CHI 21 7		 33 150 4.5 1 -1 -1.0 2 4 13 Mon Dec 6, 2004 W DAL @ SEA 43 39		 30 198 6.6 3 11 3.7 3 5 14 Sun Dec 12, 2004 L DAL  NOR 13 27		 23 88 3.8 2 8 4.0 1 6 15 Sun Dec 19, 2004 L DAL @ PHI 7 12		 25 80 3.2 2 21 10.5 0 7 16 Sun Dec 26, 2004 W DAL  WAS 13 10		 22 57 2.6 2 10 5.0 0 8 17 Sun Jan 2, 2005 L DAL @ NYG 24 28		 29 149 5.1 5 46 9.2 1

 

[Bri]

Not re-pasting the ones above

9 1 Sun Sep 11, 2005 W DAL @ SDG 28 24		 26 93 3.6 3 18 6.0 1 10 2 Mon Sep 19, 2005 L DAL  WAS 13 14		 22 81 3.7 4 24 6.0 0 11 3 Sun Sep 25, 2005 W DAL @ SFO 34 31		 26 85 3.3 4 28 7.0 2 12 4 Sun Oct 2, 2005 L DAL @ OAK 13 19		 22 76 3.5 1 12 12.0 0 13 5 Sun Oct 9, 2005 W DAL  PHI 33 10		 16 72 4.5	0 14 10 Mon Nov 14, 2005 W DAL @ PHI 21 20		 8 16 2.0 1 3 3.0 0 15 11 Sun Nov 20, 2005 W DAL  DET 20 7		 21 92 4.4 1 13 13.0 0 16 12 Thu Nov 24, 2005 L DAL  DEN 21 24		 20 55 2.8 5 9 1.8 0 17 13 Sun Dec 4, 2005 L DAL @ NYG 10 17		 23 74 3.2 9 88 9.8 0 18 14 Sun Dec 11, 2005 W DAL  KAN 31 28		 12 41 3.4	0 19 15 Sun Dec 18, 2005 L DAL @ WAS 7 35		 12 79 6.6 3 17 5.7 0 20 16 Sat Dec 24, 2005 W DAL @ CAR 24 20		 34 194 5.7 2 17 8.5 2 21 17 Sun Jan 1, 2006 L DAL  STL 10 20		 15 35 2.3 2 -11 -5.5 0 22 1 Sun Sep 10, 2006 L DAL @ JAX 17 24		 17 72 4.2 1 39 39.0 1 23 2 Sun Sep 17, 2006 W DAL  WAS 27 10		 20 94 4.7	0 24 4 Sun Oct 1, 2006 W DAL @ TEN 45 14		 23 122 5.3	1 25 5 Sun Oct 8, 2006 L DAL @ PHI 24 38		 26 100 3.8 1 22 22.0 0 26 6 Sun Oct 15, 2006 W DAL  HOU 34 6		 22 106 4.8	0 27 7 Mon Oct 23, 2006 L DAL  NYG 22 36		 13 30 2.3 1 25 25.0 0 28 8 Sun Oct 29, 2006 W DAL @ CAR 35 14		 24 92 3.8	1 29 9 Sun Nov 5, 2006 L DAL @ WAS 19 22		 20 73 3.7	0 30 10 Sun Nov 12, 2006 W DAL @ ARI 27 10		 15 45 3.0	0 31 11 Sun Nov 19, 2006 W DAL  IND 21 14		 22 79 3.6 3 25 8.3 0 32 12 Thu Nov 23, 2006 W DAL  TAM 38 10		 11 40 3.6	0 33 13 Sun Dec 3, 2006 W DAL @ NYG 23 20		 11 24 2.2 1 11 11.0 0 34 14 Sun Dec 10, 2006 L DAL  NOR 17 42		 10 116 11.6 1 10 10.0 1 35 15 Sat Dec 16, 2006 W DAL @ ATL 38 28		 13 26 2.0	0 36 16 Mon Dec 25, 2006 L DAL  PHI 7 23		 10 38 3.8 1 10 10.0 0 37 17 Sun Dec 31, 2006 L DAL  DET 31 39		 10 27 2.7	0

Look when he gets his 18+ carries and when he doesn't

 

[LarryAllen'sJockstrap]

I remember quite a few people had Barber as the #4 back prior to the draft. I was also high on Fason and Gore has been a complete surprise to me by staying healthy.

I liked Fason too. He was a burner with good size and put up big numbers his last year at Florida.That's why the draft is such a crapshoot. Look at 2005. If anyone out there would have predicted that on May 19th, 2008, people would be touting Barber and Gore as first round FF RBs and Benson and Caddy as late-round busts...I think it's funny when you see all these threads about how McFadden or Stewart will be busts or how Mendenhall is too talented not to overtake Willie Parker. It'll be fun to look back on some of these threads in May 2011. Chances are two or three of the first round RBs will bust and at least one or two of those later round guys that are too small or too slow will emerge as big time players.

 

[KellysHeroes]

I think he will be replaced in next yrs draft

 

[LarryAllen'sJockstrap]

I don't know why you'd write him off without the chance to see what he can do.

Haven't we seen what he can do? 250+ carries two seasons straight behind one of the best run-blocking OLs in the NFL? Yes, Barber cut into his touches, but do you think that would have happened if JJ was that good?

Meaning what?The better Barber got, the less Jones got carries.

If anything, Barber is the less experienced less we know about a guy here. Before last year, what did he do?

1 100+ yard game and 1 90+ yard game.

Jones on the other hand(before last year again) had 4 90+ yard games, and 8 100+ yard games including 2 that were almost 200 yards(which can't be brushed off lightly). The 2nd half of his rookie year was excellent.

Jones is a back that needs his 18 carries to get the #s. It's pretty crystal clear, his brother was the same way early on if not still. Take a look http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play...eJu01_games.htm if the Boys gave him 18 or more carries, he got 80-100 or more yards.

Guys in this thread want it to come down to avg per carry, but Parcells runs out the clock all game long some games. Even as he openned up his Os more and passed a bunch that guy always loved to have long plodding drives. Those are never good for per rush averages but can be demoralizing to a D. Prior to 07, Barber has nice avg numbers as 3rd down backs often do but he also has 5 or 6 games with less than 4 yards per carry as well.

I love Barber for 2008, don't get me wrong. I also prefer the big backs or backs that play big. This thread, however, and a glance at FBG ranking is making me think Jones is going to be a steal in 2008. I've sorta come full circle on this debate

The problem with Julius is not his size or speed. In fact, if you compare Barber and Jones, Jones is actually thicker (height/weight) and faster. I guarantee if you had Jones and Barber were to race the 40, Jones wins.The problem with Jones is his football skills. He has two critical flaws that you just can't have as a RB.

1. Vision/Anticipation... call it whatever you want. He doesn't see what is going to happen before it happens. LT never juked anyone out of their cleats because he is so much faster, he just understands angles, predicts what the defender is going to do and moves accordingly. Jones does not have this sixth sense. That's why he would get dropped for loss so often.

2. Balance; this is why Barber is the superior runner. When Jones gets hit, he losses his balance. He doesn't take a blow and adjust, or contort in ways to minimize the impact. He pretty much puts his head down and tries to fall forward.

If Seattle can open up holes and let Jones build up his speed and get past the line, he might be effective. If he's expected to manufacture a lot of gains by reading the open hole and picking up yards after contact, Seattle will be going to Morris or Duckett real quick.

 

[Jeff Tefertiller]

I think Forsett might surprise some this year in Seattle

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

I always thought Jones was the sort of guy who could do well catching more passes, and I may be wrong on this, but Seattle looks like a better place for him to rack up receptions.

 

[switz]

Not re-pasting the ones above

9 1 Sun Sep 11, 2005 W DAL @ SDG 28 24	 [b]26[/b] 93 [b]3.6[/b] 3 18 6.0 1 10 2 Mon Sep 19, 2005 L DAL  WAS 13 14		 [b]22[/b] 81 [b]3.7[/b] 4 24 6.0 0 11 3 Sun Sep 25, 2005 W DAL @ SFO 34 31		 [b]26[/b] 85 [b]3.3[/b] 4 28 7.0 2 12 4 Sun Oct 2, 2005 L DAL @ OAK 13 19		 [b]22[/b] 76 [b]3.5[/b] 1 12 12.0 0 13 5 Sun Oct 9, 2005 W DAL  PHI 33 10		 16 72 4.5	0 14 10 Mon Nov 14, 2005 W DAL @ PHI 21 20		 8 16 2.0 1 3 3.0 0 15 11 Sun Nov 20, 2005 W DAL  DET 20 7		 [b]21[/b] 92 [b]4.4[/b] 1 13 13.0 0 16 12 Thu Nov 24, 2005 L DAL  DEN 21 24		 [b]20[/b] 55 [b]2.8[/b] 5 9 1.8 0 17 13 Sun Dec 4, 2005 L DAL @ NYG 10 17		 [b]23[/b] 74 [b]3.2[/b] 9 88 9.8 0 18 14 Sun Dec 11, 2005 W DAL  KAN 31 28		 12 41 3.4	0 19 15 Sun Dec 18, 2005 L DAL @ WAS 7 35		 12 79 6.6 3 17 5.7 0 20 16 Sat Dec 24, 2005 W DAL @ CAR 24 20		 [b]34[/b] 194 [b]5.7[/b] 2 17 8.5 2 21 17 Sun Jan 1, 2006 L DAL  STL 10 20		 15 35 2.3 2 -11 -5.5 0 22 1 Sun Sep 10, 2006 L DAL @ JAX 17 24		 17 72 4.2 1 39 39.0 1 23 2 Sun Sep 17, 2006 W DAL  WAS 27 10		 [b]20[/b] 94 [b]4.7[/b]	0 24 4 Sun Oct 1, 2006 W DAL @ TEN 45 14		 [b]23[/b] 122 [b]5.3[/b]	1 25 5 Sun Oct 8, 2006 L DAL @ PHI 24 38		 [b]26[/b] 100 [b]3.8[/b] 1 22 22.0 0 26 6 Sun Oct 15, 2006 W DAL  HOU 34 6		 [b]22[/b] 106 [b]4.8[/b]	0 27 7 Mon Oct 23, 2006 L DAL  NYG 22 36		 13 30 2.3 1 25 25.0 0 28 8 Sun Oct 29, 2006 W DAL @ CAR 35 14		 [b]24[/b] 92 [b]3.8[/b]	1 29 9 Sun Nov 5, 2006 L DAL @ WAS 19 22		 [b]20[/b] 73 [b]3.7[/b]	0 30 10 Sun Nov 12, 2006 W DAL @ ARI 27 10		 15 45 3.0	0 31 11 Sun Nov 19, 2006 W DAL  IND 21 14		 [b]22[/b] 79 [b]3.6[/b] 3 25 8.3 0 32 12 Thu Nov 23, 2006 W DAL  TAM 38 10		 11 40 3.6	0 33 13 Sun Dec 3, 2006 W DAL @ NYG 23 20		 11 24 2.2 1 11 11.0 0 34 14 Sun Dec 10, 2006 L DAL  NOR 17 42		 10 116 11.6 1 10 10.0 1 35 15 Sat Dec 16, 2006 W DAL @ ATL 38 28		 13 26 2.0	0 36 16 Mon Dec 25, 2006 L DAL  PHI 7 23		 10 38 3.8 1 10 10.0 0 37 17 Sun Dec 31, 2006 L DAL  DET 31 39		 10 27 2.7	0

Look when he gets his 18+ carries and when he doesn't

I'm not sure what I'm supposed to be seeing. In only 5 of those games did he have 4.0+ YPC. That's not very good.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Jones' success will somewhat depend on how Seattle uses him. JJ would be excellent in a 1-cut running system like Denver. He has excellent acceleration but not-the-best vision. Or at least he was coached heavily in Dallas to follow the prescribed hole and not free lance. He was far more robotic in his later seasons versus his rookie year. He does very well in draw plays but struggles in traditional between-the-tackles run plays. My recollection is that Seattle uses a traditional running system not unlike Dallas'. That may have been because Alexander was best in that system and they were trying to use him optimally. I just don't know how Seattle plans to use JJ. It will make a big difference in his effectiveness.

Depending on how Seattle used him depends on how good Julius Jones is. They're not going to use him for goaline situations unless he proves he can do an effective job at the goaline. He's not going to be in 3rd down situations unless he proves he can pick up the blocking and make some catches out of the backfield.I'm sure Seattle would love to use him for anything he can show he's extremely good at, it's up to Julius Jones to them what he can do, not wait for Seattle to tell JJ.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

I always thought Jones was the sort of guy who could do well catching more passes, and I may be wrong on this, but Seattle looks like a better place for him to rack up receptions.

I never really liked the way Julius Jones caught passes out of the backfield. It doesn't look natural to me. The pass and catch and the catch to the transition of running after the catch isn't smooth.Julius Jones is an OK back. He'll do an OK job in Seattle. IN terms of fantasy, I probably won't get him on a team this year. It looks like he'll be a RB 2 guy and I just feel like that's his upside and that's where he's being drafted. There's only room for disappointment so I wish him well, but will get my RB 2 somewhere else.

 

[Bri]

I'm not sure what I'm supposed to be seeing. In only 5 of those games did he have 4.0+ YPC. That's not very good.

Parcells loves long drives and his backs are not often above 4.0.(mentioned earlier)Joe Morris only had more than 4.0 in 2 of 6 seasons(not counting early when he was a 3rd down back, that's different)Ottis Anderson never had more than 4.0 playing for Parcells, 6 years.(I think there's a Handley year in there but...)HOFer Curtis Martin played for BP 6 years and only once had more than 4.0.That's 3 of 18 seasons and 2 of them are from a back that was so unique that the DL literally could not see him behind the OL for a second here and there.If Parcells wanted a longer run he had Meggett, Leon Johnson, and Barber/Richie Anderson to do that.Granted Richie was old and sometimes more of a tutor than a player in Dal so ignoring him, those were the type of backs he went to for longer runs. They have the averages. A player is supposed to fill his role, it's not fair to hold it against him-that's his job.CDM and an occasional other league score rushing average. If yours doesn't I don't see any reason to give it any weight under Parcells.

 

[The Moz]

IMO if JJ was a great back he would have shown it under that HUGE oline Dallas has.. IMO he didn't However maybe it was his ego hurting him as when he was da man he really shined - then when Barber got alot of minutes he looked average. he is a decent round 5 - 6 back if he is there.