Let's talk Palmer (1 Viewer)

[Fantaholic]

Carson Palmer is currently being taken as the 15th QB give or take 2 slots in most mocks. This makes him borderline QB1 or Solid QB2 in most fantasy leagues. If you simply go by the rankings here, he is a QB2 according to his draft position. This is a guy that was considered one of the best pure passers in the game just a couple of seasons ago. He's still young, and he still has the same arm. He's coming off a disappointing season, but he is now going to be throwing the ball around with guys like Ocho, Owens, Bryant and even Matt Jones. I can't think of a Qb with a better opportunity to blow away his ADP than Palmer. Am I missing something? Maybe it's still early and this will be common knowledge/thinking by the time most drafts roll around. However, I just can't see a better opportunity to outperform their ADP than Carson's.

 

[ffguru56]

Well I think your claim of him having the same arm is the biggest factor that everyone seems to be debating about Palmer. Many feel he doesn't have the same arm, and if that's the case, you shouldn't expect a significant increase of his stats just because Cincy signed TO (being the only factor changing from last year?).

 

[SSOG]

Carson Palmer is currently being taken as the 15th QB give or take 2 slots in most mocks. This makes him borderline QB1 or Solid QB2 in most fantasy leagues. If you simply go by the rankings here, he is a QB2 according to his draft position. This is a guy that was considered one of the best pure passers in the game just a couple of seasons ago. He's still young, and he still has the same arm. He's coming off a disappointing season, but he is now going to be throwing the ball around with guys like Ocho, Owens, Bryant and even Matt Jones. I can't think of a Qb with a better opportunity to blow away his ADP than Palmer. Am I missing something? Maybe it's still early and this will be common knowledge/thinking by the time most drafts roll around. However, I just can't see a better opportunity to outperform their ADP than Carson's.

You're missing something. He doesn't have the same arm anymore. Ever since he tore his rotator cuff, he's lost all zip on his passes. IIRC, no QB in the league last year got a lower percentage of his passing yardage on balls thrown 20+ yards past the line of scrimmage.

 

[Fantaholic]

Carson Palmer is currently being taken as the 15th QB give or take 2 slots in most mocks. This makes him borderline QB1 or Solid QB2 in most fantasy leagues. If you simply go by the rankings here, he is a QB2 according to his draft position. This is a guy that was considered one of the best pure passers in the game just a couple of seasons ago. He's still young, and he still has the same arm. He's coming off a disappointing season, but he is now going to be throwing the ball around with guys like Ocho, Owens, Bryant and even Matt Jones. I can't think of a Qb with a better opportunity to blow away his ADP than Palmer. Am I missing something? Maybe it's still early and this will be common knowledge/thinking by the time most drafts roll around. However, I just can't see a better opportunity to outperform their ADP than Carson's.

You're missing something. He doesn't have the same arm anymore. Ever since he tore his rotator cuff, he's lost all zip on his passes. IIRC, no QB in the league last year got a lower percentage of his passing yardage on balls thrown 20+ yards past the line of scrimmage.

Well, I guess it's simply a matter of opinion at this point as to whether last year was an off year due to an injury, or an off year due to an arm on its way out. According to Palmer and his coach this year will be different due to an offseason strengthening program that has his elbow stronger than ever. It's not a sure thing, and I can understand that. However, if you wait on QB and solidify your RB, WR anf even TE positions, you could grab Palmer as your Qb and end up with a nice starting roster. Ofcourse, it would make sense to grab an insurance policy for Palmer soon there after, but I am really liking this as a possible strategy. I just can't see a situation where these receivers don't get "theirs" and Palmer will be the one delivering it.

 

[ffguru56]

Carson Palmer is currently being taken as the 15th QB give or take 2 slots in most mocks. This makes him borderline QB1 or Solid QB2 in most fantasy leagues. If you simply go by the rankings here, he is a QB2 according to his draft position. This is a guy that was considered one of the best pure passers in the game just a couple of seasons ago. He's still young, and he still has the same arm. He's coming off a disappointing season, but he is now going to be throwing the ball around with guys like Ocho, Owens, Bryant and even Matt Jones. I can't think of a Qb with a better opportunity to blow away his ADP than Palmer. Am I missing something? Maybe it's still early and this will be common knowledge/thinking by the time most drafts roll around. However, I just can't see a better opportunity to outperform their ADP than Carson's.

You're missing something. He doesn't have the same arm anymore. Ever since he tore his rotator cuff, he's lost all zip on his passes. IIRC, no QB in the league last year got a lower percentage of his passing yardage on balls thrown 20+ yards past the line of scrimmage.

Well, I guess it's simply a matter of opinion at this point as to whether last year was an off year due to an injury, or an off year due to an arm on its way out. According to Palmer and his coach this year will be different due to an offseason strengthening program that has his elbow stronger than ever. It's not a sure thing, and I can understand that. However, if you wait on QB and solidify your RB, WR anf even TE positions, you could grab Palmer as your Qb and end up with a nice starting roster. Ofcourse, it would make sense to grab an insurance policy for Palmer soon there after, but I am really liking this as a possible strategy. I just can't see a situation where these receivers don't get "theirs" and Palmer will be the one delivering it.

You need to take this information with a grain of salt as it's coming from the player in question and the coach; very biased opinions.

 

[Mister CIA]

Carson Palmer is currently being taken as the 15th QB give or take 2 slots in most mocks. This makes him borderline QB1 or Solid QB2 in most fantasy leagues. If you simply go by the rankings here, he is a QB2 according to his draft position. This is a guy that was considered one of the best pure passers in the game just a couple of seasons ago. He's still young, and he still has the same arm. He's coming off a disappointing season, but he is now going to be throwing the ball around with guys like Ocho, Owens, Bryant and even Matt Jones. I can't think of a Qb with a better opportunity to blow away his ADP than Palmer. Am I missing something? Maybe it's still early and this will be common knowledge/thinking by the time most drafts roll around. However, I just can't see a better opportunity to outperform their ADP than Carson's.

You're missing something. He doesn't have the same arm anymore. Ever since he tore his rotator cuff, he's lost all zip on his passes. IIRC, no QB in the league last year got a lower percentage of his passing yardage on balls thrown 20+ yards past the line of scrimmage.

News I missed.

 

[Fantaholic]

Carson Palmer is currently being taken as the 15th QB give or take 2 slots in most mocks. This makes him borderline QB1 or Solid QB2 in most fantasy leagues. If you simply go by the rankings here, he is a QB2 according to his draft position. This is a guy that was considered one of the best pure passers in the game just a couple of seasons ago. He's still young, and he still has the same arm. He's coming off a disappointing season, but he is now going to be throwing the ball around with guys like Ocho, Owens, Bryant and even Matt Jones. I can't think of a Qb with a better opportunity to blow away his ADP than Palmer. Am I missing something? Maybe it's still early and this will be common knowledge/thinking by the time most drafts roll around. However, I just can't see a better opportunity to outperform their ADP than Carson's.

You're missing something. He doesn't have the same arm anymore. Ever since he tore his rotator cuff, he's lost all zip on his passes. IIRC, no QB in the league last year got a lower percentage of his passing yardage on balls thrown 20+ yards past the line of scrimmage.

Well, I guess it's simply a matter of opinion at this point as to whether last year was an off year due to an injury, or an off year due to an arm on its way out. According to Palmer and his coach this year will be different due to an offseason strengthening program that has his elbow stronger than ever. It's not a sure thing, and I can understand that. However, if you wait on QB and solidify your RB, WR anf even TE positions, you could grab Palmer as your Qb and end up with a nice starting roster. Ofcourse, it would make sense to grab an insurance policy for Palmer soon there after, but I am really liking this as a possible strategy. I just can't see a situation where these receivers don't get "theirs" and Palmer will be the one delivering it.

You need to take this information with a grain of salt as it's coming from the player in question and the coach; very biased opinions.

Again, there is nothing certain about picking Palmer as your Qb1. I just have Palmer targeted as a "Comeback player of the year" type of guy for 2010. If he comes back healthy exhibiting some of the strength and accuracy that made him one of the leagues best not too long ago then he has as a good a chance as anyone to blow away his ADP. These receivers are going to score in 2010.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Carson Palmer is currently being taken as the 15th QB give or take 2 slots in most mocks. This makes him borderline QB1 or Solid QB2 in most fantasy leagues. If you simply go by the rankings here, he is a QB2 according to his draft position. This is a guy that was considered one of the best pure passers in the game just a couple of seasons ago. He's still young, and he still has the same arm. He's coming off a disappointing season, but he is now going to be throwing the ball around with guys like Ocho, Owens, Bryant and even Matt Jones. I can't think of a Qb with a better opportunity to blow away his ADP than Palmer. Am I missing something? Maybe it's still early and this will be common knowledge/thinking by the time most drafts roll around. However, I just can't see a better opportunity to outperform their ADP than Carson's.

His ADP of 15 is preOwens. Everyone knows about the trade and just about everyone thinks the addition of TO will have a positive impact on the Cinci passing game. Whether his arm or elbow or whatever isn't the same anymore, having another talented receiver opposite of 85 can only help. I expect his ADP to climb just inside of 12 making him a QB 1, and that's a scary prospect IMO.

 

[fantasizing]

I think alot of last year's performance was due to the play calling as well. The Bengals took very few risks in the passing game. I don't have any numbers in front of me, but I'll wager that the attempts greater than 20 yards were few and far between. With real legitimate deep threats in TO, Ocho, and Bryant, it would stand to reason that the coordinators would increase the percentage of deep passes.

There was a statistic shown on Monday night football a few years ago (before Palmer's injury) that stated that Palmer had the highest accuracy of any QB on passes thrown greater than 20 yards. Conversely, his accuracy on passes thrown less than 20 yards was about average. It was quite an alarming statistic.

But, in recent years, it just seems that Palmer doesn't want to, or like to, or feel comfortable with the deep ball. I don't know if it's because he has lost power in the arm, or is just playing it safe, the playcalling, or the receivers not getting separation, not enough protection.

It's really hard to diagnose this. It's a chicken and egg argument.

 

[CravenM]

You're missing something. He doesn't have the same arm anymore. Ever since he tore his rotator cuff, he's lost all zip on his passes. IIRC, no QB in the league last year got a lower percentage of his passing yardage on balls thrown 20+ yards past the line of scrimmage.

News I missed.

Yeah, I'm not positive but I'm nearly certain that he had an elbow injury (a ligament or tendon tear) that he opted to let heal naturally instead of having surgery. I don't recall anything about a rotator cuff tear.

Correct - Carson Palmer has never torn his rotator cuff nor had a problem with it. He declared his elbow "100% healthy" in March 2009 but I suspect 'healthy' did not mean 'strong':

Palmer article

When Palmer had CJ/85, TJ Hoosh and Chris Henry, he had top 5 QB stats. In the last 2 years he's had no WR except C85 and Palmer probably wasn't 100% from knee and elbow issues.

I think this could be a top 10 year and next year could be top 5. I would expect TO and Gresham to contribute significantly along with the other WRs that they've signed.

 

[notdarkyet]

Palmer's biggest problem IMO is he is afraid to step into throws still when there is pressure coming. Causes balls to sail high on him. And with regard to his lack of deep passes, he still has plenty of arm to do it, and exhibited it a couple of times last season. However for the most part the pass blocking has been awful and there simply is no time to go deep. Add into that there really wasnt a speed threat outside of Chad and you can see why most of his throws are underneath. Physically he is fine, psychologically I dont think so. If you watch the Bengals, make note of when Carson audibles. Always a run. Always.

I expect that his numbers will improve over last year as I expect the line play to improve, they are for the most part fairly young. TO will help keep the defense honest, and I really look to see Gresham make a difference over the historically weak TE position.

 

[SSOG]

Correct - Carson Palmer has never torn his rotator cuff nor had a problem with it.

He declared his elbow "100% healthy" in March 2009 but I suspect 'healthy' did not mean 'strong':

Palmer article

When Palmer had CJ/85, TJ Hoosh and Chris Henry, he had top 5 QB stats. In the last 2 years he's had no WR except C85 and Palmer probably wasn't 100% from knee and elbow issues.

I think this could be a top 10 year and next year could be top 5. I would expect TO and Gresham to contribute significantly along with the other WRs that they've signed.

My bad, I was remembering the rotator cuff rumors from 2006 and not the Tommy John scare from 2008. Either way, Palmer's arm was SHOT last year. Really, really brutally awful. The only guy who was a hollower shell of his former self last year was Kurt Warner. Not only did he not have the zip on the long balls, the ball was even sailing on the routine intermediate stuff. Chad Ochocinco was as good as he's ever been last year, and Palmer simply couldn't hit him.FWIW, there's been a little bit of running discussion about Palmer in the dynasty thread this offseason. Highlights can be seen at the following links:

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...&p=11461453

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...&p=11467787

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...&p=12062839

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...&p=12062629

 

[Sabertooth]

Carson Palmer is currently being taken as the 15th QB give or take 2 slots in most mocks. This makes him borderline QB1 or Solid QB2 in most fantasy leagues. If you simply go by the rankings here, he is a QB2 according to his draft position. This is a guy that was considered one of the best pure passers in the game just a couple of seasons ago. He's still young, and he still has the same arm. He's coming off a disappointing season, but he is now going to be throwing the ball around with guys like Ocho, Owens, Bryant and even Matt Jones. I can't think of a Qb with a better opportunity to blow away his ADP than Palmer. Am I missing something? Maybe it's still early and this will be common knowledge/thinking by the time most drafts roll around. However, I just can't see a better opportunity to outperform their ADP than Carson's.

This is the big question. I don't think he will ever have his old arm back.

 

[David Yudkin]

Taken from one of the other threads . . .

Palmer ranked 23rd in fantasy ppg over the past two seasons (only counting QBs with at least 400 passing attempts). If Owens were to net Palmer two more fantasy ppg, Palmer would jump to 16th.

The Bills added Owens and their team QB fantasy scoring dropped by 43 points.

The Cowboys added Owens and their QB scoring went up by 37 points.

The Eagles added Owens and their QB scoring went up 98 points.

The Bengals in 07 had 298 QB points. They had 264 in 09. In shuffling the cards, substitute Housh and Henry for an aging Owens and a mercurial Bryant. Maybe the total numbers go up some, but I would not bet a lot that they will go through the roof.

In 2006, Housh and Henry accounted for 126-1686-18. Do you see Owens and Bryant hitting that combined? Ochocinco also added nearly 1400 yards (which at this point seems beyond his grasp as his numbers have been dropping ever since). In that year, Palmer scored 319 fantasy points, which last year would have barely cracked the Top 10.

Bottom line, unless you think Ochocinco will again be a 1400/8 guy and the pairing of Owens and Bryant will total nearly 1700/18, given the in flux of QB scoring, you STILL might not get a fantasy starting QB in Palmer.

Also of concern, last year the Bengals had 200-250 more rushing attempts than they had in recent years and met with good results and made the playoffs. Unless they revert back to being a pass happy team, their passing totals may not be high enough to support a Top 10 QB.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Palmer's outlook to me is strictly about his arm. Last year, we all know Palmer did not have much help in the WR department. But he also did not have the same arm strength. He was terrible on deep throws and even on mid and short range throws, Palmer was lacking velocity and accuracy. When a QB is not accurate on short throws and was previously, it tells me his elbow was a major problem last year. Until I see with my own eyes that his arm looks healthy, he will not be ranked inside the top 20 by me, Owens or not. A healthy Palmer (like the Palmer before the injury) would be a top 10 QB.

 

[Godsbrother]

I thought Palmer looked liked a very mediocre QB last season and wasn't just his arm strength -- I thought his decision making wasn't quite up to snuff as well.

For this reason I am not as high on him as most around here and view him as a middle-of-the-pack QB. I am prepared to eat crow if I am wrong though.

 

[Hedgehog]

Correct - Carson Palmer has never torn his rotator cuff nor had a problem with it.

He declared his elbow "100% healthy" in March 2009 but I suspect 'healthy' did not mean 'strong':

Palmer article

When Palmer had CJ/85, TJ Hoosh and Chris Henry, he had top 5 QB stats. In the last 2 years he's had no WR except C85 and Palmer probably wasn't 100% from knee and elbow issues.

I think this could be a top 10 year and next year could be top 5. I would expect TO and Gresham to contribute significantly along with the other WRs that they've signed.

My bad, I was remembering the rotator cuff rumors from 2006 and not the Tommy John scare from 2008. Either way, Palmer's arm was SHOT last year. Really, really brutally awful. The only guy who was a hollower shell of his former self last year was Kurt Warner. Not only did he not have the zip on the long balls, the ball was even sailing on the routine intermediate stuff. Chad Ochocinco was as good as he's ever been last year, and Palmer simply couldn't hit him.FWIW, there's been a little bit of running discussion about Palmer in the dynasty thread this offseason. Highlights can be seen at the following links:

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...&p=11461453

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...&p=11467787

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...&p=12062839

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...&p=12062629

I won my league last year with Warner so if Palmer can put up solid but not spectacular stats just inside the top 10 QBs stats as a mid rd QB I would be happy - however - I am covering myself by taking another solid QB in that range like McNabb just in case

 

[Bayhawks]

Correct - Carson Palmer has never torn his rotator cuff nor had a problem with it.

He declared his elbow "100% healthy" in March 2009 but I suspect 'healthy' did not mean 'strong':

Palmer article

When Palmer had CJ/85, TJ Hoosh and Chris Henry, he had top 5 QB stats. In the last 2 years he's had no WR except C85 and Palmer probably wasn't 100% from knee and elbow issues.

I think this could be a top 10 year and next year could be top 5. I would expect TO and Gresham to contribute significantly along with the other WRs that they've signed.

My bad, I was remembering the rotator cuff rumors from 2006 and not the Tommy John scare from 2008. Either way, Palmer's arm was SHOT last year. Really, really brutally awful. The only guy who was a hollower shell of his former self last year was Kurt Warner. Not only did he not have the zip on the long balls, the ball was even sailing on the routine intermediate stuff. Chad Ochocinco was as good as he's ever been last year, and Palmer simply couldn't hit him.FWIW, there's been a little bit of running discussion about Palmer in the dynasty thread this offseason. Highlights can be seen at the following links:

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...&p=11461453

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...&p=11467787

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...&p=12062839

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...&p=12062629

Thanks for the links, interesting reads. What I get out of it though, is this: with the exception of the friend/source of the poster in the 1st thread, the opinion that "Palmer's arm was toast" was held by guys like you and I, that is regular Joes who play FF and watch FF. Several people have said that his throws were "all over the place." I watched all but one of Cincy's games last year, and I didn't see that. I saw some bad throws here and there, but I didn't see him "constantly sailing balls" as other posters suggested. Furthermore, the last link you provided had stats that showed Palmer only went deep 15% of the time. That's (IMO) consistent with my belief that Palmer was hurt by the loss of Henry and the lack of a deep threat (or 2nd credible receiving threat). The same source said Palmer was excellent in 3rd/4th down, and on comeback routes. He completed almost 61% of his passes, and that was with teams able to double 85 and crowd the LOS and effectively stop the Bengals passing game. To me, that doesn't show that Palmer's "arm is toast," but that the Bengals passing offense was anemic. The addition of all the passing threats indicates to me that the Bengals are going to focus more on the passing game this year, which should improve Palmer's stats.

 

[Abraham]

I was a big buyer last season. I'm a big seller this year. THE arm, the running game...

 

[Dr. Octopus]

he still has the same arm.

not so much, until he shows otherwise.

 

[LTF]

Palmer's arm is completely shot. I'm starting to wonder if those pimping him out now even watched him play last season. It's a shame because he used to be one of the best deep ball passers in the league, but he really struggled to complete passes 15 yards or more last year and his accuracy on those passes was terribly inconsistent. Without the various injuries, maybe he'd been considered an elite passer in this league, but I don't think he's ever going to be the same guy he was back in '05 or even '07.

 

[SSOG]

Thanks for the links, interesting reads. What I get out of it though, is this: with the exception of the friend/source of the poster in the 1st thread, the opinion that "Palmer's arm was toast" was held by guys like you and I, that is regular Joes who play FF and watch FF. Several people have said that his throws were "all over the place." I watched all but one of Cincy's games last year, and I didn't see that. I saw some bad throws here and there, but I didn't see him "constantly sailing balls" as other posters suggested. Furthermore, the last link you provided had stats that showed Palmer only went deep 15% of the time. That's (IMO) consistent with my belief that Palmer was hurt by the loss of Henry and the lack of a deep threat (or 2nd credible receiving threat). The same source said Palmer was excellent in 3rd/4th down, and on comeback routes. He completed almost 61% of his passes, and that was with teams able to double 85 and crowd the LOS and effectively stop the Bengals passing game. To me, that doesn't show that Palmer's "arm is toast," but that the Bengals passing offense was anemic. The addition of all the passing threats indicates to me that the Bengals are going to focus more on the passing game this year, which should improve Palmer's stats.

You think that the lack of deep attempts was because of the commitment to the ground game. Personally, I think that nothing would have helped the ground game more than for Palmer to take some deep shots and get those safeties away from the LoS (think: Eli Manning, Plaxico Burress, and the 2005-2008 New York Giants). My opinion is that the lack of deep attempts was a result of the fact that Palmer was 8 of 35 on balls thrown 20+ yards past the LoS.

 

[Abraham]

Furthermore, I don't think the addition of Owens does anything for the deep ball.

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

Furthermore, I don't think the addition of Owens does anything for the deep ball.

If you're suggesting TO isn't a deep threat any more, you are very wrong. He got behind quite a few DBs last year.

 

[The Real Hipster Doofus]

As I posted in another thread, the benefit of the addition of TO is that someone will reach for Palmer higher than they should. Thus leaving you with a QB with an actual arm to take a bit later than you could have before.

 

[Abraham]

Furthermore, I don't think the addition of Owens does anything for the deep ball.

If you're suggesting TO isn't a deep threat any more, you are very wrong. He got behind quite a few DBs last year.

Really? I admit I could be misinformed, but I was under the impression that TO wasn't a deep threat as much any more. Some of that is situation/role, but my point was that this isn't like adding Randy Moss to the equation.

 

[Bayhawks]

Thanks for the links, interesting reads. What I get out of it though, is this: with the exception of the friend/source of the poster in the 1st thread, the opinion that "Palmer's arm was toast" was held by guys like you and I, that is regular Joes who play FF and watch FF. Several people have said that his throws were "all over the place." I watched all but one of Cincy's games last year, and I didn't see that. I saw some bad throws here and there, but I didn't see him "constantly sailing balls" as other posters suggested. Furthermore, the last link you provided had stats that showed Palmer only went deep 15% of the time. That's (IMO) consistent with my belief that Palmer was hurt by the loss of Henry and the lack of a deep threat (or 2nd credible receiving threat). The same source said Palmer was excellent in 3rd/4th down, and on comeback routes. He completed almost 61% of his passes, and that was with teams able to double 85 and crowd the LOS and effectively stop the Bengals passing game. To me, that doesn't show that Palmer's "arm is toast," but that the Bengals passing offense was anemic. The addition of all the passing threats indicates to me that the Bengals are going to focus more on the passing game this year, which should improve Palmer's stats.

You think that the lack of deep attempts was because of the commitment to the ground game. Personally, I think that nothing would have helped the ground game more than for Palmer to take some deep shots and get those safeties away from the LoS (think: Eli Manning, Plaxico Burress, and the 2005-2008 New York Giants). My opinion is that the lack of deep attempts was a result of the fact that Palmer was 8 of 35 on balls thrown 20+ yards past the LoS.

I think you misunderstood me (or I wasn't clear in what I wrote). I wasn't implying that the lack of deep attempts was a result of a commitment to the running game, at least not completely. Rather, that Cincy didn't have the opportunities to go deep after Henry was out, because defenses could double-team 85, and effectively contain the passing game. As a result, they didn't go deep that often (35 times, as you pointed out). This combined with their effective running game, made it more prudent to stick with runs and shorter passes, as they would eat up the yards, and keep the clock moving. Now that they have more passing weapons, I wouldn't be surprised to see more deep attempts in 2010.

 

[Ray_T]

Carson Palmer is currently being taken as the 15th QB give or take 2 slots in most mocks. This makes him borderline QB1 or Solid QB2 in most fantasy leagues. If you simply go by the rankings here, he is a QB2 according to his draft position. This is a guy that was considered one of the best pure passers in the game just a couple of seasons ago. He's still young, and he still has the same arm. He's coming off a disappointing season, but he is now going to be throwing the ball around with guys like Ocho, Owens, Bryant and even Matt Jones. I can't think of a Qb with a better opportunity to blow away his ADP than Palmer. Am I missing something? Maybe it's still early and this will be common knowledge/thinking by the time most drafts roll around. However, I just can't see a better opportunity to outperform their ADP than Carson's.

You're missing something. He doesn't have the same arm anymore. Ever since he tore his rotator cuff, he's lost all zip on his passes. IIRC, no QB in the league last year got a lower percentage of his passing yardage on balls thrown 20+ yards past the line of scrimmage.

well, it was my belief (and I still stand by this call) that it would take an extra year for Palmer to return to form. He surprised me a bit by having an adequate season this last year.It would not surprise me to see him take a step up this year as his arm will be stronger and he will feel better while throwing the ball.The question is.... just how close to 100% will his rehab get him in the end?

 

[LTF]

Thanks for the links, interesting reads. What I get out of it though, is this: with the exception of the friend/source of the poster in the 1st thread, the opinion that "Palmer's arm was toast" was held by guys like you and I, that is regular Joes who play FF and watch FF. Several people have said that his throws were "all over the place." I watched all but one of Cincy's games last year, and I didn't see that. I saw some bad throws here and there, but I didn't see him "constantly sailing balls" as other posters suggested. Furthermore, the last link you provided had stats that showed Palmer only went deep 15% of the time. That's (IMO) consistent with my belief that Palmer was hurt by the loss of Henry and the lack of a deep threat (or 2nd credible receiving threat). The same source said Palmer was excellent in 3rd/4th down, and on comeback routes. He completed almost 61% of his passes, and that was with teams able to double 85 and crowd the LOS and effectively stop the Bengals passing game. To me, that doesn't show that Palmer's "arm is toast," but that the Bengals passing offense was anemic. The addition of all the passing threats indicates to me that the Bengals are going to focus more on the passing game this year, which should improve Palmer's stats.

You think that the lack of deep attempts was because of the commitment to the ground game. Personally, I think that nothing would have helped the ground game more than for Palmer to take some deep shots and get those safeties away from the LoS (think: Eli Manning, Plaxico Burress, and the 2005-2008 New York Giants). My opinion is that the lack of deep attempts was a result of the fact that Palmer was 8 of 35 on balls thrown 20+ yards past the LoS.

.Which was a big time criticism from knowledgeable Bengals fans of both Palmer and Bratkowski last season. It was very rare for Palmer to take chances deep down the field last season, and when he did the ball was often a wounded duck coming out of his hand. Looked like Eli Manning on a windy day at the Meadowlands... just ugly throws with not a lot of accuracy.

 

[SSOG]

I think you misunderstood me (or I wasn't clear in what I wrote). I wasn't implying that the lack of deep attempts was a result of a commitment to the running game, at least not completely. Rather, that Cincy didn't have the opportunities to go deep after Henry was out, because defenses could double-team 85, and effectively contain the passing game. As a result, they didn't go deep that often (35 times, as you pointed out). This combined with their effective running game, made it more prudent to stick with runs and shorter passes, as they would eat up the yards, and keep the clock moving. Now that they have more passing weapons, I wouldn't be surprised to see more deep attempts in 2010.

I did misunderstand you. I'm sorry.Anyway, more deep attempts is nice and all, but it doesn't mean jack diddly if he doesn't do anything with them. A 23% completion rate won't cut it. And I'm not sure his deep weapons are really that much improved. Owens has always been overrated as a deep threat- he's more of an intermediate weapon, and most of his long receptions result from him making something happen after the ball is in his hands. Last year's YPC total looks impressive, but 98 of his 829 yards came on a single reception- absent that one play he would have averaged 13.5 ypc, his lowest total in 7 years. An aging intermediate threat isn't really the panacea needed to fix the deep game. Bryant could have helped for sure, but Bryant is now among the walking wounded. Ocho will still get open plenty deep, but he did it last year, too, and Palmer couldn't find him.I guess what it all boils down to is that I'm skeptical about just how much improvement Palmer can really make on his arm at this point after eschewing surgery again. I think the spirit will be willing, but the flesh will be weak.

 

[Powder]

I've been taking Palmer in the 9th round of almost every mock as my starting QB. I doubt I'll be able to do that as the season gets closer.

 

[vandyt]

Wouldnt have mattered last year if he had AJ and Moss at WR, or if he had two scarecrows...any ball that traveled more than 5 yards (which were few and far between) floated like a punt. This wasn't just at the end of the season either. As early as the first CLE game last year it was obvious his arm was off.

We'll see if bypassing that surgery last offseason comes back to haunt his career.

 

[CravenM]

I think another interesting aspect to Carson Palmer's success this year is his willingness (or the offensive coordinator) to throw to the new TE Jermaine Gresham.

In the last 5 years, the Bengals have only averaged about 2 targets to TEs per game. If they don't change this trend, they will have wasted their 2010 1st round draft pick.

I think Gresham could be a difference maker along the lines of Gonzo and Shannon Sharpe. Palmer and the OC should realize that they are going to have very talented receivers at every spot and keep the ball in the air.

 

[Fantaholic]

I've been taking Palmer in the 9th round of almost every mock as my starting QB. I doubt I'll be able to do that as the season gets closer.

This is why I started this post. I'm not in any way suggesting that Palmer should be drafted as your QB1, which would have you picking him somewhere in rounds 4-7 give or take. Having said that, I do think that he will move up the board a bit before most drafts take place, but not that much higher than where he is now. Assuming he is healthy, and that situation should be much clearer after the preseason then he represents a player with top 10 potential that's available in round 8 or so. These are the types of draft picks that can make or break fantasy seasons.

 

[Gopher State]

I don't see much value in Palmer, first his arm, the zip is gone, I don't think he ever have the rocket arm that he use to have. I also, don't put much weight in what the coaching staff says about his weight program this off season.

Next T.O. at 36 is not the same. He is slower, they were talking on ESPN radio today, and they think their are only two corners in the NFL that T O can beat one on one anymore.

Bryant, by all accounts, it appears that his knee is not right. Who knows if he will even be able to start the season on the field. This injury/knee could slow him down/hold him back all season.

Palmer could be ok as a #2 FF QB, but anyone drafting him as their starter, LOL

 

[Bayhawks]

I think you misunderstood me (or I wasn't clear in what I wrote). I wasn't implying that the lack of deep attempts was a result of a commitment to the running game, at least not completely. Rather, that Cincy didn't have the opportunities to go deep after Henry was out, because defenses could double-team 85, and effectively contain the passing game. As a result, they didn't go deep that often (35 times, as you pointed out). This combined with their effective running game, made it more prudent to stick with runs and shorter passes, as they would eat up the yards, and keep the clock moving. Now that they have more passing weapons, I wouldn't be surprised to see more deep attempts in 2010.

I did misunderstand you. I'm sorry.Anyway, more deep attempts is nice and all, but it doesn't mean jack diddly if he doesn't do anything with them. A 23% completion rate won't cut it. And I'm not sure his deep weapons are really that much improved. Owens has always been overrated as a deep threat- he's more of an intermediate weapon, and most of his long receptions result from him making something happen after the ball is in his hands. Last year's YPC total looks impressive, but 98 of his 829 yards came on a single reception- absent that one play he would have averaged 13.5 ypc, his lowest total in 7 years. An aging intermediate threat isn't really the panacea needed to fix the deep game. Bryant could have helped for sure, but Bryant is now among the walking wounded. Ocho will still get open plenty deep, but he did it last year, too, and Palmer couldn't find him.I guess what it all boils down to is that I'm skeptical about just how much improvement Palmer can really make on his arm at this point after eschewing surgery again. I think the spirit will be willing, but the flesh will be weak.

Gotcha. I'm not sure I agree with you, but I see where you're coming from. I watched all but 1 of the Bengal games from last year, and I didn't notice a lot of times that 85 was open deep and Palmer didn't take the shot. Maybe I missed it though, because I watched on TV, and if 85 wasn't in the play, the TV cameras might not have shown him. What I did see, however, especially towards the end of the season, was 85 being defended by multiple guys. Either a corner man-up (a la Revis) with safety help over the top, or with multiple zone defenders keying on him. Perhaps that will change this year.Even if you are right, though, and Palmer can't make the deep throws anymore, his stats should improve if the Bengals throw the ball more. He had 3100 and 21 TDs in 2009, while only throwing the ball 466 times. If you add only 4 attempts a game, that would give him 530 attempts. Without any improvement (using same completion %, YPA, and TD %), Palmer would put up these numbers with 530 attempts:320 completions, 3498 yards, 24 TDs While 3500 yards and 24 TDs isn't great, getting them from a QB that is (was) available in the 9th round represents (IMO) value, especially if he is part of a QBBC.

 

[fantasizing]

If there's somebody out there who is bored, I think it would be interesting to calculate Palmer's completion percentage on passes thrown

greater than 20 yards for each season he's played in the NFL. Maybe break it down further into different yardage attempts.

Since we're trying to disect whether he's inherently declining, or if there are other environmental factors at play there (garbage receivers, Ol-line, etc.)