LHUCKS' '05 Rankings (1 Viewer)

[LHUCKS]

LHUCKS,

Enjoyed reading your posts, as always.  You have obviously put a lot of time and effort into this.

I'd be interested to see your reasoning behind JJ being so low.  Is it injury risk?  Skill risk (you think he sucks)?  Competition risk (A-train)?  Bledsoe risk (Dallas passing a ton.  Playing catch-up a lot)? 

Of all of the picks, this one stands out most to me.  I can easily see JJ going for 1500 yards and 15 TDs this year.  Likewise, I think he will catch more balls than most people think.  I have read nothing coming out of Dallas that leads me to believe he won't be a workhorse this year.  What do you see here that I don't?

Yep...I'm lower on JJ than almost everybody. I have very little confidence that he can stay on the field for an entire season.Unlike backup WRs, I emphasize reliability in my RB rankings. Guys that will be there for me in weeks 15 and 16. A mistake most commonly made by almost all ffers is treating every position the same. You can only draft 3 starting RBs usually, which makes their durability much more important than say Receivers where you can go 6 or 7 deep with starters. Not to mention WRs are a bit easier to pick up on the waiver wire.

 

[LHUCKS]

Actually, I'd be more interested in your projection rankings...when are those coming out?

When I get some time I'll get to this.

 

[LHUCKS]

More on Julius Jones...I've been relatively low on him since May when I did my RB critique. Here's what I wrote:

2) Julius Jones Ranked #13

Jones is another second year runningback that showed glimpses of greatness in '04. Rightfully so, Julius is ranked much lower than McGahee, but there are two significant differences between the two backs in my opinion. First, Jerry Jones is already on record saying that he'd like to keep Jones to less than 20 carries per game. Second, the team brought in Anthony Thomas, a proven between the tackles type of runner that the Boys had been going after for quite some time. No matter how you slice it, you don't bring in a proven runner like A-Train if you don't have some concerns at the RB position. The Thomas signing seems to mix very well with the "less than 20 carries" remarks. To see what kind of impact less than 20 carries means let's take a look at Julius' game log from '04: (note only 8 games)

+----------+-------------+--------+----+

| WK OPP | RSH YD | RECYD | TD |

+----------+-------------+--------+----+

| 2 cle | 5 16 | 14 | 0 |

| 11 bal | 30 81 | 0 | 0 |

| 12 chi | 33 150 | -1 | 2 |

| 13 sea | 30 198 | 11 | 3 |

| 14 nor | 23 88 | 8 | 1 |

| 15 phi | 25 80 | 21 | 0 |

| 16 was | 22 57 | 10 | 0 |

| 17 nyg | 29 149 | 46 | 1 |

+----------+-------------+--------+----+

| TOTAL | 197 819 | 109 | 7 |

+----------+-------------+--------+----+

Julius had only three games with less than 25 carries as the fulltime starter and of those games he averaged about 81 total yards(that includes receving yards.) Mind you that was averaging 23 carries per game, which is not "less than 20." Yes it is a very limited data set, but it is the dataset we have to work with. Jones will probably have some big games, but I'm expecting enough mediocre games(by ff standards) to see his production fall around #18 on my RB list.Lastly and most importantly, Jones suffered not one, but two seperate injuries that limited his playing time in '04. Looking at this situation objectively it is more likely we're going to see a much lower touch count for Julius Jones than what many expect. I'm not booting him out of my top 20, but I'm not going to put him anywhere near #13 as I think he has a lot to prove in the durability department. Nice kid, great talent...we'll see if he can live up to my #19 ranking.

Staff with Highest Ranking: Baker #8, Hicks #9, Brown #9

Staff with Lowest Ranking: Levin #18, Anderson #18

LHUCKS Ranking: #19

 

[Banger]

More on Julius Jones...I've been relatively low on him since May when I did my RB critique.  Here's what I wrote:

2) Julius Jones Ranked #13

Jones is another second year runningback that showed glimpses of greatness in '04.   Rightfully so, Julius is ranked much lower than McGahee, but there are two significant differences between the two backs in my opinion.  First, Jerry Jones is already on record saying that he'd like to keep Jones to less than 20 carries per game.  Second, the team brought in Anthony Thomas, a proven between the tackles type of runner that the Boys had been going after for quite some time.  No matter how you slice it, you don't bring in a proven runner like A-Train if you don't have some concerns at the RB position.  The Thomas signing seems to mix very well with the "less than 20 carries" remarks.   To see what kind of impact less than 20 carries means let's take a look at Julius' game log from '04:  (note only 8 games)

+----------+-------------+--------+----+

| WK  OPP  |  RSH   YD   |  RECYD | TD |

+----------+-------------+--------+----+

|  2  cle  |    5    16  |    14  |  0 |

| 11  bal  |   30    81  |     0  |  0 |

| 12  chi  |   33   150  |    -1  |  2 |

| 13  sea  |   30   198  |    11  |  3 |

| 14  nor  |   23    88  |     8  |  1 |

| 15  phi  |   25    80  |    21  |  0 |

| 16  was  |   22    57  |    10  |  0 |

| 17  nyg  |   29   149  |    46  |  1 |

+----------+-------------+--------+----+

|  TOTAL   |  197   819  |   109  |  7 |

+----------+-------------+--------+----+

Julius had only three games with less than 25 carries as the fulltime starter and of those games he averaged about 81 total yards(that includes receving yards.) Mind you that was averaging 23 carries per game, which is not "less than 20." Yes it is a very limited data set, but it is the dataset we have to work with. Jones will probably have some big games, but I'm expecting enough mediocre games(by ff standards) to see his production fall around #18 on my RB list.Lastly and most importantly, Jones suffered not one, but two seperate injuries that limited his playing time in '04. Looking at this situation objectively it is more likely we're going to see a much lower touch count for Julius Jones than what many expect. I'm not booting him out of my top 20, but I'm not going to put him anywhere near #13 as I think he has a lot to prove in the durability department. Nice kid, great talent...we'll see if he can live up to my #19 ranking.

Staff with Highest Ranking: Baker #8, Hicks #9, Brown #9

Staff with Lowest Ranking: Levin #18, Anderson #18

LHUCKS Ranking: #19

The problem I see with that is that a lot has changed since May. While A-Train could have been considered a detracting factor in May he's showed nothing in the preseason and there's no reason to think that he will impact JJ anymore than Eddie George did last year.Jerry Jones can say all he wants but Parcells is the coach and will play his guys how he sees fit. I see him giving the ball to JJ a lot this year (as he did when healthy last year).

 

[LHUCKS]

The problem I see with that is that a lot has changed since May.  While A-Train could have been considered a detracting factor in May he's showed nothing in the preseason and there's no reason to think that he will impact JJ anymore than Eddie George did last year.

Jerry Jones can say all he wants but Parcells is the coach and will play his guys how he sees fit.  I see him giving the ball to JJ a lot this year (as he did when healthy last year).

I agree with that. At the time I believed A-Train would have a bigger impact in camp than he has. That being said, I think it may be unlikely that Julius can stay on the field if he's running the ball 20 times a game so the portions of the critique where I address risk and # of touches are still relevant IMHO.

 

[Nigel Tufnel]

Good stuff. You like a lot of my players, so I'm on board with you.

 

[Ridgelake]

LHUCKS,Thanks for your insights on JJ. I respectfully disagree with you (and drafted accordingly), but it will be interesting to see how it plays out.Regards

 

[LHUCKS]

LHUCKS,

Thanks for your insights on JJ. I respectfully disagree with you (and drafted accordingly), but it will be interesting to see how it plays out.

Regards

 

[ScottNorwood]

I remember reading somewhere that Cadillac was the next LT. Seems like he's ranked too low if that's the case.

 

[LHUCKS]

I remember reading somewhere that Cadillac was the next LT.  Seems like he's ranked too low if that's the case.

Although I obviously like Cadillac, I always temper enthusiasm for rookies. In the other thread I was speaking more to long term success as opposed to just this year. Rookie RBs have a tendency to wear down or start slow. It often seems to be one of the two.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Hey Lhucks it might be minor, but you don't have Marshall Faulk in the top 50 RB's.He could really have an Eric Metcalf type role, lots of receptions and hand full of carries every week.Please comment if you feel he isn't even top 50 material in PPR leagues.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Here are McNabb's weekly totals minus the Pitt/Balt games and week 16 where he didn't really play since they had locked up homefield.

+----------+--------------------------+----------------+| WK OPP | CMP ATT PYD TD INT | RSH YD TD |+----------+--------------------------+----------------+| 1 nyg | 26 36 330 4 0 | 4 12 0 || 2 min | 19 28 245 2 0 | 3 24 1 || 3 det | 29 42 356 2 0 | 5 -2 1 || 4 chi | 24 38 237 1 1 | 1 2 0 || 6 car | 14 26 209 0 1 | 3 6 0 || 7 cle | 28 43 376 4 1 | 2 28 0 || 10 dal | 15 28 345 4 0 | 2 14 0 || 11 was | 18 26 222 4 1 | 5 34 0 || 12 nyg | 18 27 244 1 0 | 5 30 1 || 13 gnb | 32 43 464 5 0 | 0 0 0 || 14 was | 21 38 260 1 1 | 2 8 0 || 15 dal | 20 35 223 1 2 | 4 29 0 |+----------+--------------------------+----------------+| TOTAL | 300 470 3875 31 8 | 42 221 3 |+----------+--------------------------+----------------+ So this year the Eagles get the cakewalk known as the AFC West to replace the brutal AFC North. Huge IMHO.

I agree with this 100%. I think all the TO mess this offseason has supressed McNabb's value. In fact, I believe McNabb belongs in tier 2 all by himself if not in tier 1 with Manning.I also hope you're right about Galloway and Glenn, since I own both of them.

Does the Price signing affect your projections for Glenn?

 

[LHUCKS]

Does the Price signing affect your projections for Glenn?

Not really. Glenn is the starter and the best WR on the team. I don't see that changing, nor do I see his targets being effected.

 

[LHUCKS]

Hey Lhucks it might be minor, but you don't have Marshall Faulk in the top 50 RB's.

He could really have an Eric Metcalf type role, lots of receptions and hand full of carries every week.

Please comment if you feel he isn't even top 50 material in PPR leagues.

Nope that's an oversight...haven't had a chance to reconcile these rankings with my spreadsheets yet. Edited to Add: Faulk added

 

[Perry Van Hook]

No love for Heath Miller on your TE list? I have him ranked equal to your 18-21 guys. I think Porter may be ailing a lot more than people think and while the system and Moss being double covered should improve his numbers, I doubt that happens. I would look for Curry or Gabriel (assuming he gets back sooner rather than later) to pick up receptions and yards and the occassional long TD.Thanks for the effort on this

 

[LHUCKS]

No love for Heath Miller on your TE list? I have him ranked equal to your 18-21 guys.

Heath Miller is at 22.Porter is a tough guy to rank...a lot of unknown variables there. I may have him a bit high.

 

[Bankerguy]

LHUCKS,

Enjoyed reading your posts, as always.  You have obviously put a lot of time and effort into this.

I'd be interested to see your reasoning behind JJ being so low.  Is it injury risk?  Skill risk (you think he sucks)?  Competition risk (A-train)?  Bledsoe risk (Dallas passing a ton.  Playing catch-up a lot)? 

Of all of the picks, this one stands out most to me.  I can easily see JJ going for 1500 yards and 15 TDs this year.  Likewise, I think he will catch more balls than most people think.  I have read nothing coming out of Dallas that leads me to believe he won't be a workhorse this year.  What do you see here that I don't?

Yep...I'm lower on JJ than almost everybody. I have very little confidence that he can stay on the field for an entire season.Unlike backup WRs, I emphasize reliability in my RB rankings. Guys that will be there for me in weeks 15 and 16. A mistake most commonly made by almost all ffers is treating every position the same. You can only draft 3 starting RBs usually, which makes their durability much more important than say Receivers where you can go 6 or 7 deep with starters. Not to mention WRs are a bit easier to pick up on the waiver wire.

He broke his shoulder....is this why you question whether or not he can survive a whole season? I hope not. Can you please elaborate.

 

[LHUCKS]

LHUCKS,

Enjoyed reading your posts, as always.  You have obviously put a lot of time and effort into this.

I'd be interested to see your reasoning behind JJ being so low.  Is it injury risk?  Skill risk (you think he sucks)?  Competition risk (A-train)?  Bledsoe risk (Dallas passing a ton.  Playing catch-up a lot)? 

Of all of the picks, this one stands out most to me.  I can easily see JJ going for 1500 yards and 15 TDs this year.  Likewise, I think he will catch more balls than most people think.  I have read nothing coming out of Dallas that leads me to believe he won't be a workhorse this year.  What do you see here that I don't?

Yep...I'm lower on JJ than almost everybody. I have very little confidence that he can stay on the field for an entire season.Unlike backup WRs, I emphasize reliability in my RB rankings. Guys that will be there for me in weeks 15 and 16. A mistake most commonly made by almost all ffers is treating every position the same. You can only draft 3 starting RBs usually, which makes their durability much more important than say Receivers where you can go 6 or 7 deep with starters. Not to mention WRs are a bit easier to pick up on the waiver wire.

He broke his shoulder....is this why you question whether or not he can survive a whole season? I hope not. Can you please elaborate.

He had two separate injuries, not just one. He only played a handfull of games in '04 and as I've said many a time on this board, very few human beings can take the punishment of 25 RB touches week in and week out in the NFL. Curtis Martin, Corey Dillon, Edgerrin James...all freaks of nature. Julius Jones has a lot to prove before I rank him ahead of other proven performers.

 

[bakes]

Overall very solid - actually not far off of my own rankings, except for the running backs being skewed in my case towards receptions (I'm in PPR leagues).

 

[Bankerguy]

LHUCKS,

Enjoyed reading your posts, as always.  You have obviously put a lot of time and effort into this.

I'd be interested to see your reasoning behind JJ being so low.  Is it injury risk?  Skill risk (you think he sucks)?  Competition risk (A-train)?  Bledsoe risk (Dallas passing a ton.  Playing catch-up a lot)? 

Of all of the picks, this one stands out most to me.  I can easily see JJ going for 1500 yards and 15 TDs this year.  Likewise, I think he will catch more balls than most people think.  I have read nothing coming out of Dallas that leads me to believe he won't be a workhorse this year.  What do you see here that I don't?

Yep...I'm lower on JJ than almost everybody. I have very little confidence that he can stay on the field for an entire season.Unlike backup WRs, I emphasize reliability in my RB rankings. Guys that will be there for me in weeks 15 and 16. A mistake most commonly made by almost all ffers is treating every position the same. You can only draft 3 starting RBs usually, which makes their durability much more important than say Receivers where you can go 6 or 7 deep with starters. Not to mention WRs are a bit easier to pick up on the waiver wire.

He broke his shoulder....is this why you question whether or not he can survive a whole season? I hope not. Can you please elaborate.

He had two separate injuries, not just one. He only played a handfull of games in '04 and as I've said many a time on this board, very few human beings can take the punishment of 25 RB touches week in and week out in the NFL. Curtis Martin, Corey Dillon, Edgerrin James...all freaks of nature. Julius Jones has a lot to prove before I rank him ahead of other proven performers.

Your rankings are solid. I think you will review this one opinion later and think . Good luck this year....thanks for sharing your rankings.

 

[LHUCKS]

Your rankings are solid. I think you will review this one opinion later and think . Good luck this year....thanks for sharing your rankings.

You may very well be right. As I'm sure you know, if you go back and look at anybody's rankings you'll see a lot of mistakes...which is what makes this hobby so intriguing and intellectually challenging.

 

[There it is]

A decent number of folks have PM'd me and emailed me for my rankings over the past couple of months so I'll be posting them here as promised.



Rankings are based on the following:

1) Head to Head

2) Cheatsheet Rankings, not projection rankings. This is the likely order that I'd draft players in a vacuum, not the order in which I project their totals.(I'll explain later in this thread.)

3) FBG Scoring

4) Shark League(i.e. lopsided trades unlikely to be made)

5) Rosters 22 deep

6) 4 Teams make the playoffs based on record, playoff weeks 15-16.

Quarterbacks

1. Manning

2. McNabb

3. Bulger

4. Culpepper

I'm catching alot of grief because I think McNabb (w/soft schedule) will beat Culpepper this year.Great minds think alike.

 

[LHUCKS]

I'm catching alot of grief because I think McNabb (w/soft schedule) will beat Culpepper this year.

Great minds think alike.

I went after McNabb/Bulger agressively in many of my leagues including Staff v. MB Survivor...I actually traded up in the third round to grab him in No Mercy. McNabb is on many of my squads this year. I think he's such a solid play given his upside, consistency and schedule.

I've been quiet about him over the preseason because many of my leaguemates read my posts and much of my strategy centered around grabbing McNabb or Bulger. That is partially why I post my rankings this time of the year...now I feel I can talk about the guys I really targeted.

 

[Ridgelake]

Does the Price signing affect your projections for Glenn?

Not really. Glenn is the starter and the best WR on the team. I don't see that changing, nor do I see his targets being effected.

In addition, Price is backing up the position played by Keyshawn. Crayton is backing up Glenn. Now who gets into the 3-WR sets (Crayton vs Peerless), is another story.

 

[LHUCKS]

Does the Price signing affect your projections for Glenn?

Not really. Glenn is the starter and the best WR on the team. I don't see that changing, nor do I see his targets being effected.

In addition, Price is backing up the position played by Keyshawn. Crayton is backing up Glenn. Now who gets into the 3-WR sets (Crayton vs Peerless), is another story.

...that being said I could see a situation where Glenn goes down coupled with some bad play by Crayton due to his lack of inexperience, prompting a move of Price into Glenn's role...a lot of ifs in that scenario though.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Does the Price signing affect your projections for Glenn?

Not really. Glenn is the starter and the best WR on the team. I don't see that changing, nor do I see his targets being effected.

In addition, Price is backing up the position played by Keyshawn. Crayton is backing up Glenn. Now who gets into the 3-WR sets (Crayton vs Peerless), is another story.

...that being said I could see a situation where Glenn goes down and Crayton's lack of inexperience prompting a move of Price into Glenn's role...a lot of ifs in that scenario though.

Crayton is now better than Price. Atlanta dropped him........he blows. Teams pick up Wr's after they leave other teams. For example, Quincy Morgan, Koren Robinson, Freddie Mitchell etc...... that doesn't make them any good. It just means those teams have to find out for themselves I guess.Crayton was solid all preseason, probably the Cowboys 2nd best receiver during that time. Can anyone say Price was solid or are you going on what he did 3 or 4 years ago?

 

[EBF]

I don't like the RB rankings. I don't think Holmes warrants top ten pick.

That's quite a bold statement. I also strongly disagree with it. For all the talk about how you can't predict injuries, everyone seems all to eager to predict one for Holmes. Fact is, when he's been healthy, he's been the #1 RB in all of fantasy football- and it hasn't even been close. What's more, a guy who finishes with 200 points in 10 games is a HECKUVA lot more valuable than a guy who finishes with 220 points in 14 games, because not only do you get the 200 in 10 games, you also get however many points your backup RB scores in the other 4 games, too.The absolute worst case scenario with Holmes/Johnson (assuming you get the pair) is that they split the carries 60/40. Assuming KC produces at the RB position similar to its 3 year averages, that would still have Holmes finish the season as RB5, and Larry Johnson finish the season as RB12. No, really, I promise. Not bad at all for a 1st and 5th round investment. If they split carries 75/25, Holmes is RB1 in a landslide. If Holmes goes down to injury, then Larry Johnson would be due for 75+% of the carries and would in all likelihood be the #1 RB in fantasy football by a landslide.

Holmes/Johnson is really win-win. Holmes alone is still a pretty good prospect, too, because you can't predict injuries, and even if he does get hurt, he still has more value than other RBs who will wind up outscoring him on the season.

Facts:- Holmes is nearly 32 years old.

- Holmes hasn't finished a season in two years.

- Holmes has a backup talented enough to possibly steal a significant number of touches.

I don't think the risk/reward analysis warrants a top 10 selection.

 

[H.K.]

McNair at #9, man I hope you are right....gutsy call, but if he stays healthy (IF), you might be onto something.Add me to the list of those who appreciate you sharing, definitely adds credibility to your posts because you don't just criticize. You open yourself up for criticism, too.Good luck this year!

 

[LHUCKS]

Crayton was solid all preseason, probably the Cowboys 2nd best receiver during that time.  Can anyone say Price was solid or are you going on what he did 3 or 4 years ago?

It's hard for me to believe Price just fell off the map, he's still relatively young for a WR. Crayton has looked great I agree. I'm just saying Crayton hasn't accomplished an iota of what Price has in the NFL so I wouldn't be surprised if Price works his way into the Dallas #3 WR mix. A lot of players look great in the preseason. All of that being said, Crayton or Price didn't come anywhere close to my top 50 WRs.

 

[14464]

I'm catching alot of grief because I think McNabb (w/soft schedule) will beat Culpepper this year.

Great minds think alike.

I went after McNabb/Bulger agressively in many of my leagues including Staff v. MB Survivor...I actually traded up in the third round to grab him in No Mercy. McNabb is on many of my squads this year. I think he's such a solid play given his upside, consistency and schedule.

I've been quiet about him over the preseason because many of my leaguemates read my posts and much of my strategy centered around grabbing McNabb or Bulger. That is partially why I post my rankings this time of the year...now I feel I can talk about the guys I really targeted.

I really don't understand how anyone can rank McNabb over Bulger. Makes zero sense.Edit: Overall, picks were solid.

 

[There it is]

I'm catching alot of grief because I think McNabb (w/soft schedule) will beat Culpepper this year.

Great minds think alike.

I went after McNabb/Bulger agressively in many of my leagues including Staff v. MB Survivor...I actually traded up in the third round to grab him in No Mercy. McNabb is on many of my squads this year. I think he's such a solid play given his upside, consistency and schedule.

I've been quiet about him over the preseason because many of my leaguemates read my posts and much of my strategy centered around grabbing McNabb or Bulger.

I took McNabb in Anarchy ahead of Culpepper and caught grief.I also got him in OMEGA. I realllllyyy like him this year.

 

[LHUCKS]

Facts:

- Holmes is nearly 32 years old.

- Holmes hasn't finished a season in two years.

- Holmes has a backup talented enough to possibly steal a significant number of touches.

I don't think the risk/reward analysis warrants a top 10 selection.

Despite my Holmes ranking I've actually drafted him in very few leagues...part of whether or not I draft Holmes depends on two things.1) How soon will I need to take LJ based on what I know of the league and does the extra roster spot hurt my teams bench situation

2) Can I secure a solid #3 RB to plug in for Holmes.

That is why in the very first paragraph of the initial posts that these rankings are based on where I'd take players in a vacuum, my rankings can change dramatically for a player like Holmes from one league to the next. I didn't touch Holmes in survivor situations.

 

[14464]

I am also interested in knowing why Deuce is ranked so high on your RB list? He's one of the most overrated RB every year IMO. His value more times than not seems based on what he 'can' do vs. what he 'has' done.

 

[There it is]

I'm catching alot of grief because I think McNabb (w/soft schedule) will beat Culpepper this year.

Great minds think alike.

I went after McNabb/Bulger agressively in many of my leagues including Staff v. MB Survivor...I actually traded up in the third round to grab him in No Mercy. McNabb is on many of my squads this year. I think he's such a solid play given his upside, consistency and schedule.

I've been quiet about him over the preseason because many of my leaguemates read my posts and much of my strategy centered around grabbing McNabb or Bulger. That is partially why I post my rankings this time of the year...now I feel I can talk about the guys I really targeted.

I really don't understand how anyone can rank McNabb over Bulger. Makes zero sense.Edit: Overall, picks were solid.

Thank you,and thank you all for thinking this. It makes $$$ for us that have him.

 

[LHUCKS]

I am also interested in knowing why Deuce is ranked so high on your RB list? He's one of the most overrated RB every year IMO. His value more times than not seems based on what he 'can' do vs. what he 'has' done.

Basically I think we're going to see Deuce '03 this year. He ranks higher on my lists than some because I REALLY emphasize risk management in my RB rankings at the top.

 

[Banger]

I don't like the RB rankings. I don't think Holmes warrants top ten pick.

That's quite a bold statement. I also strongly disagree with it. For all the talk about how you can't predict injuries, everyone seems all to eager to predict one for Holmes. Fact is, when he's been healthy, he's been the #1 RB in all of fantasy football- and it hasn't even been close. What's more, a guy who finishes with 200 points in 10 games is a HECKUVA lot more valuable than a guy who finishes with 220 points in 14 games, because not only do you get the 200 in 10 games, you also get however many points your backup RB scores in the other 4 games, too.The absolute worst case scenario with Holmes/Johnson (assuming you get the pair) is that they split the carries 60/40. Assuming KC produces at the RB position similar to its 3 year averages, that would still have Holmes finish the season as RB5, and Larry Johnson finish the season as RB12. No, really, I promise. Not bad at all for a 1st and 5th round investment. If they split carries 75/25, Holmes is RB1 in a landslide. If Holmes goes down to injury, then Larry Johnson would be due for 75+% of the carries and would in all likelihood be the #1 RB in fantasy football by a landslide.

Holmes/Johnson is really win-win. Holmes alone is still a pretty good prospect, too, because you can't predict injuries, and even if he does get hurt, he still has more value than other RBs who will wind up outscoring him on the season.

Facts:- Holmes is nearly 32 years old.

- Holmes hasn't finished a season in two years.

- Holmes has a backup talented enough to possibly steal a significant number of touches.

I don't think the risk/reward analysis warrants a top 10 selection.

Agreed, I am in a draft tonight at the #4 spot and hope someone takes him before me. If he falls to me I am going to pass.

 

[Banger]

I am also interested in knowing why Deuce is ranked so high on your RB list? He's one of the most overrated RB every year IMO. His value more times than not seems based on what he 'can' do vs. what he 'has' done.

Basically I think we're going to see Deuce '03 this year. He ranks higher on my lists than some because I REALLY emphasize risk management in my RB rankings at the top.

but hasn't he had ankle injuries that have hampered him in 2 of the past 3 years?

 

[LHUCKS]

I am also interested in knowing why Deuce is ranked so high on your RB list? He's one of the most overrated RB every year IMO. His value more times than not seems based on what he 'can' do vs. what he 'has' done.

Basically I think we're going to see Deuce '03 this year. He ranks higher on my lists than some because I REALLY emphasize risk management in my RB rankings at the top.

but hasn't he had ankle injuries that have hampered him in 2 of the past 3 years?

Yeah...but I really don't see the ankle as an ongoing significant concern. From what I've read it's a relatively minor concern and the Saints/Deuce aren't concerned about it.

 

[14464]

I'm catching alot of grief because I think McNabb (w/soft schedule) will beat Culpepper this year.

Great minds think alike.

I went after McNabb/Bulger agressively in many of my leagues including Staff v. MB Survivor...I actually traded up in the third round to grab him in No Mercy. McNabb is on many of my squads this year. I think he's such a solid play given his upside, consistency and schedule.

I've been quiet about him over the preseason because many of my leaguemates read my posts and much of my strategy centered around grabbing McNabb or Bulger. That is partially why I post my rankings this time of the year...now I feel I can talk about the guys I really targeted.

I really don't understand how anyone can rank McNabb over Bulger. Makes zero sense.Edit: Overall, picks were solid.

Thank you,and thank you all for thinking this. It makes $$$ for us that have him.

So you can't back it up as to why then? Interesting.

 

[LHUCKS]

Deuces '03 season

+----------+-------------+--------+----+| WK  OPP  |  RSH   YD   |  RECYD | TD |+----------+-------------+--------+----+|  1  sea  |   22    99  |    35  |  0 ||  2  hou  |   20    96  |    16  |  1 ||  3  ten  |   11     8  |    23  |  0 ||  4  ind  |   17   101  |    25  |  1 ||  5  car  |   23   124  |    59  |  0 ||  6  chi  |   29   116  |    14  |  0 ||  7  atl  |   21   116  |     0  |  2 ||  8  car  |   26   101  |    32  |  0 ||  9  tam  |   26   110  |    16  |  0 || 11  atl  |   28   173  |    64  |  2 || 12  phi  |   19   184  |    48  |  2 || 13  was  |   30   165  |    31  |  0 || 14  tam  |   22    69  |    19  |  0 || 15  nyg  |   15    80  |    65  |  0 || 16  jax  |   21    50  |    63  |  0 || 17  dal  |   21    49  |     6  |  0 |+----------+-------------+--------+----+|  TOTAL   |  351  1641  |   516  |  8 |+----------+-------------+--------+----+

Exactly the type of production I look for in a RB. The yardage consistency is awesome.

 

[14464]

I am also interested in knowing why Deuce is ranked so high on your RB list? He's one of the most overrated RB every year IMO. His value more times than not seems based on what he 'can' do vs. what he 'has' done.

Basically I think we're going to see Deuce '03 this year. He ranks higher on my lists than some because I REALLY emphasize risk management in my RB rankings at the top.

but hasn't he had ankle injuries that have hampered him in 2 of the past 3 years?

Yeah...but I really don't see the ankle as an ongoing significant concern. From what I've read it's a relatively minor concern and the Saints/Deuce aren't concerned about it.

Guys had one good year to warrent a first round pick, go look up the stats if you don't believe me or you can follow the herd and put him that high up because many "experts" rank him first round RB material every year.

 

[14464]

Deuces '03 season

+----------+-------------+--------+----+| WK  OPP  |  RSH   YD   |  RECYD | TD |+----------+-------------+--------+----+|  1  sea  |   22    99  |    35  |  0 ||  2  hou  |   20    96  |    16  |  1 ||  3  ten  |   11     8  |    23  |  0 ||  4  ind  |   17   101  |    25  |  1 ||  5  car  |   23   124  |    59  |  0 ||  6  chi  |   29   116  |    14  |  0 ||  7  atl  |   21   116  |     0  |  2 ||  8  car  |   26   101  |    32  |  0 ||  9  tam  |   26   110  |    16  |  0 || 11  atl  |   28   173  |    64  |  2 || 12  phi  |   19   184  |    48  |  2 || 13  was  |   30   165  |    31  |  0 || 14  tam  |   22    69  |    19  |  0 || 15  nyg  |   15    80  |    65  |  0 || 16  jax  |   21    50  |    63  |  0 || 17  dal  |   21    49  |     6  |  0 |+----------+-------------+--------+----+|  TOTAL   |  351  1641  |   516  |  8 |+----------+-------------+--------+----+

Exactly the type of production I look for in a RB. The yardage consistency is awesome.

Not for drafting first round it isnt.

 

[EBF]

I am also interested in knowing why Deuce is ranked so high on your RB list? He's one of the most overrated RB every year IMO. His value more times than not seems based on what he 'can' do vs. what he 'has' done.

Basically I think we're going to see Deuce '03 this year. He ranks higher on my lists than some because I REALLY emphasize risk management in my RB rankings at the top.

but hasn't he had ankle injuries that have hampered him in 2 of the past 3 years?

Yeah...but I really don't see the ankle as an ongoing significant concern. From what I've read it's a relatively minor concern and the Saints/Deuce aren't concerned about it.

Guys had one good year to warrent a first round pick, go look up the stats if you don't believe me or you can follow the herd and put him that high up because many "experts" rank him first round RB material every year.

I've had Deuce as one of my main dynasty backs for two seasons and I can tell you that he's definitely underappreciated. He almost always gives you a pretty good game, whether it's by yardage or TDs. He's one of the best backs in the NFL and is certainly worth a high pick.

 

[Nigel Tufnel]

Deuces '03 season

+----------+-------------+--------+----+| WK  OPP  |  RSH   YD   |  RECYD | TD |+----------+-------------+--------+----+|  1  sea  |   22    99  |    35  |  0 ||  2  hou  |   20    96  |    16  |  1 ||  3  ten  |   11     8  |    23  |  0 ||  4  ind  |   17   101  |    25  |  1 ||  5  car  |   23   124  |    59  |  0 ||  6  chi  |   29   116  |    14  |  0 ||  7  atl  |   21   116  |     0  |  2 ||  8  car  |   26   101  |    32  |  0 ||  9  tam  |   26   110  |    16  |  0 || 11  atl  |   28   173  |    64  |  2 || 12  phi  |   19   184  |    48  |  2 || 13  was  |   30   165  |    31  |  0 || 14  tam  |   22    69  |    19  |  0 || 15  nyg  |   15    80  |    65  |  0 || 16  jax  |   21    50  |    63  |  0 || 17  dal  |   21    49  |     6  |  0 |+----------+-------------+--------+----+|  TOTAL   |  351  1641  |   516  |  8 |+----------+-------------+--------+----+Exactly the type of production I look for in a RB.  The yardage consistency is awesome.

Not for drafting first round it isnt.

Over 2000 total yards isn't worth a first-round selection?

 

[LHUCKS]

Guys had one good year to warrent a first round pick, go look up the stats if you don't believe me or you can follow the herd and put him that high up because many "experts" rank him first round RB material every year.

Deuce's Career Numbers:

+--------------------------+-------------------------+ | Rushing | Receiving |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 2001 nor | 16 | 16 91 5.7 1 | 15 166 11.1 1 || 2002 nor | 15 | 325 1388 4.3 13 | 47 352 7.5 3 || 2003 nor | 16 | 351 1641 4.7 8 | 69 516 7.5 0 || 2004 nor | 14 | 269 1074 4.0 9 | 34 228 6.7 0 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| TOTAL | 61 | 961 4194 4.4 31 | 165 1262 7.6 4 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+In just his 2nd and 3rd year he was amongst the NFL leaders in total yards and he got slowed down a bit in '04 and still reeled in 1300 yards of total offense with 9 TDS, with 4.0 YPC.The guy is a stud.

 

[LHUCKS]

Deuces '03 season

+----------+-------------+--------+----+| WK  OPP  |  RSH   YD   |  RECYD | TD |+----------+-------------+--------+----+|  1  sea  |   22    99  |    35  |  0 ||  2  hou  |   20    96  |    16  |  1 ||  3  ten  |   11     8  |    23  |  0 ||  4  ind  |   17   101  |    25  |  1 ||  5  car  |   23   124  |    59  |  0 ||  6  chi  |   29   116  |    14  |  0 ||  7  atl  |   21   116  |     0  |  2 ||  8  car  |   26   101  |    32  |  0 ||  9  tam  |   26   110  |    16  |  0 || 11  atl  |   28   173  |    64  |  2 || 12  phi  |   19   184  |    48  |  2 || 13  was  |   30   165  |    31  |  0 || 14  tam  |   22    69  |    19  |  0 || 15  nyg  |   15    80  |    65  |  0 || 16  jax  |   21    50  |    63  |  0 || 17  dal  |   21    49  |     6  |  0 |+----------+-------------+--------+----+|  TOTAL   |  351  1641  |   516  |  8 |+----------+-------------+--------+----+

Exactly the type of production I look for in a RB.  The yardage consistency is awesome.

Not for drafting first round it isnt.

 

[14464]

I am also interested in knowing why Deuce is ranked so high on your RB list? He's one of the most overrated RB every year IMO. His value more times than not seems based on what he 'can' do vs. what he 'has' done.

Basically I think we're going to see Deuce '03 this year. He ranks higher on my lists than some because I REALLY emphasize risk management in my RB rankings at the top.

but hasn't he had ankle injuries that have hampered him in 2 of the past 3 years?

Yeah...but I really don't see the ankle as an ongoing significant concern. From what I've read it's a relatively minor concern and the Saints/Deuce aren't concerned about it.

Guys had one good year to warrent a first round pick, go look up the stats if you don't believe me or you can follow the herd and put him that high up because many "experts" rank him first round RB material every year.

I've had Deuce as one of my main dynasty backs for two seasons and I can tell you that he's definitely underappreciated. He almost always gives you a pretty good game, whether it's by yardage or TDs. He's one of the best backs in the NFL and is certainly worth a high pick.

So a RB who has had more than 10 TDs ONCE in his career is worth a first round pick to you? Hell, even Dunn outproduced him last year so why the love affair with Deuce as a first round lock RB?

 

[14464]

Deuces '03 season

+----------+-------------+--------+----+| WK  OPP  |  RSH   YD   |  RECYD | TD |+----------+-------------+--------+----+|  1  sea  |   22    99  |    35  |  0 ||  2  hou  |   20    96  |    16  |  1 ||  3  ten  |   11     8  |    23  |  0 ||  4  ind  |   17   101  |    25  |  1 ||  5  car  |   23   124  |    59  |  0 ||  6  chi  |   29   116  |    14  |  0 ||  7  atl  |   21   116  |     0  |  2 ||  8  car  |   26   101  |    32  |  0 ||  9  tam  |   26   110  |    16  |  0 || 11  atl  |   28   173  |    64  |  2 || 12  phi  |   19   184  |    48  |  2 || 13  was  |   30   165  |    31  |  0 || 14  tam  |   22    69  |    19  |  0 || 15  nyg  |   15    80  |    65  |  0 || 16  jax  |   21    50  |    63  |  0 || 17  dal  |   21    49  |     6  |  0 |+----------+-------------+--------+----+|  TOTAL   |  351  1641  |   516  |  8 |+----------+-------------+--------+----+

Exactly the type of production I look for in a RB. The yardage consistency is awesome.

Not for drafting first round it isnt.

I can let you in on a secret and tell you how many RB outperformed him if you want me to. Start with Dunn and work my way up..

 

[Banger]

I am also interested in knowing why Deuce is ranked so high on your RB list? He's one of the most overrated RB every year IMO. His value more times than not seems based on what he 'can' do vs. what he 'has' done.

Basically I think we're going to see Deuce '03 this year. He ranks higher on my lists than some because I REALLY emphasize risk management in my RB rankings at the top.

but hasn't he had ankle injuries that have hampered him in 2 of the past 3 years?

Yeah...but I really don't see the ankle as an ongoing significant concern. From what I've read it's a relatively minor concern and the Saints/Deuce aren't concerned about it.

Relatively minor or not he's had two in the past 3 years that has caused him to miss games and when playing severely reduced his effectiveness (so as not to finish top 10). I like Deuce as well but for some reason he always seems to get the "free pass" when it comes to injuries and his history. For instance DD is an injury risk but Deuce is not (not saying that you think DD is a risk just a general sentiment among most FF'ers).

 

[LHUCKS]

So a RB who has had more than 10 TDs ONCE in his career is worth a first round pick to you?

Hell, even Dunn outproduced him last year so why the love affair with Deuce as a first round lock RB?

A lot of RBs can be top fantasy producers with mediocre TD totals...see Tiki Barber.Dunn played every game last year, Deuce didn't. I'd bet Alaska that Deuce outscores Dunn any year both are fully healthy in their current environments.