So a RB who has had more than 10 TDs ONCE in his career is worth a first round pick to you?
Hell, even Dunn outproduced him last year so why the love affair with Deuce as a first round lock RB?
A lot of RBs can be top fantasy producers with mediocre TD totals...see Tiki Barber.Dunn played every game last year, Deuce didn't. I'd bet Alaska that Deuce outscores Dunn any year both are fully healthy in their current environments.
I guess if you say EVERY year that Deuce will be a legit top 1st round back, the odds will get better for you that he will but based on history, the NO offensive system and their ignorant coaches, throw in the fact they won't play any true home games, your analysis that he's a first round legit RB isn't on stats but pure gut which is fine but again, I would love for someone to tell me why they think Deuce is first round material. You can year in and year out name plenty who dominate him.
I've provided you '03 stats that I believe Deuce will repeat. Additionally I've given you several reasons why I think '05 will be closer to '04 than '03. I believe that I've actually been very quantitative in my arguments for Deuce, so I disagree with your "gut" statement.
We'll have to agree to disagree on this one.
Sorry, but a guy who has played all his games two out of four years to me speaks volumns as well as a guy who has broken the 10 TD plateu one ONCE out of FOUR seasons clearly shows that Deuce is loved WAY MORE than his worth. End of second round pick? Yes. First round pick because he had 13 Tds a few seasons back with ALL other seasons average production for where he was drafted? No way.
You keep harping on that 10 TD season as if it's significant. Let's take a look at Deuce's career:2001 - Backed up Ricky Williams as a rookie
2002 - Finished as a top ten RB in virtually every common scoring format
2003 - Finished as a top ten RB in virtually every common scoring format
2004 - Suffered through injuries, but still finished as a top twenty RB in virtually every scoring format
I think we can scratch 2001 because Deuce wasn't a starter and therefore didn't have the opportunity to be productive. That leaves 2002, 2003, and 2004. In my PPR dynasty league, Deuce finished as RB6, RB5, and RB16 in those seasons. So in three years as a starter, Deuce has had an average finish of RB9. Maybe that doesn't justify his hype, but I think most people understand that he's one of the safest RBs in the NFL when he plays.
By my league's scoring, Deuce is one of only eight RBs to have at least two top ten seasons within the past three years. The other backs are LaDainian Tomlinson, Clinton Portis, Priest Holmes, Tiki Barber, Shaun Alexander, Ricky Williams, and Edgerrin James. That looks like pretty good company to me.
I think you'd find a similar result in non-PPR leagues. Deuce has been one of the most consistent RBs in FF since 2002 and is worth every bit of a top ten pick.