LHUCKS' 4th Annual FBG Rankings Critique (1 Viewer)

[SSOG]

I think Dayne is overrated at #39 though too.

Good job.

so who do you see getting the Denver rushing yards, or do you expect them to disappear? Not trying to be a smartass, just looking for alternative opinions.

I think Bell ends up with more rushing yards because of his slashing/quick running style. He's more of a homerun threat. Dayne is the guy that bangs it up the middle and if he does bounce it outside, he's not gonna get too far. He's just too big to pull away from the DB's in the league. So, I think Dayne may get more carries and maybe average about 3 yards per carry, but Bell will have more yards and average about 4.6 yards per atleast. I also feel pretty confident that there will be a 3rd RB thrown into the mix as well.

First, at his ABSOLUTE WORST, Ron Dayne averaged 3.4 yards per carry. Denver has a better O-line than those Giants teams, so adjust upwards and I think the lowest you could reasonably project Dayne to get is 3.7 yards per carry. Personally, I think projecting him for anything lower than 4.2 ypc is sheer lunacy, but that's just me.Second... in 2004, Bell got 75 carries. His longest? 29 yards. In 2005, Dayne got 53 carries. His longest? 55 yards.

Okay, okay, maybe 2004 was a bad year. Let's look at Bell's entire Denver career. 248 attempts... for a long of 68 yards. In other words, he's had almost 200 more attempts than Dayne, and his long is only 13 yards longer than Dayne's... and yet, Bell is a "home run threat" and Dayne is "too big to pull away from the DBs".

Ron Dayne is faster than Anderson, and Anderson still had an 80 yarder in Denver (on top of a 90+ yarder last preseason). He's fast enough to get it done, for sure.

Finally, I don't know why you feel so confident that there will be a 3rd RB in the mix. Since there's really no historical precedent for it (not just in Denver, but in the entire NFL- seriously, when has a team ever relied heavily on 3 different RBs by design rather than out of necessity due to injuries?), I sort of feel like you're just making stuff up at this point.

Injuries are tough to predict, but I guess I just can't imagine that Denver won't be getting someone else on their roster to take carries away from Dayne. Dayne is mediocre AT BEST and TJ Duckett or someone like that would be more productive.

Well, Denver *WON'T* be getting someone else on their roster to take carries away from Dayne. The draft is gone. The Free Agents are gone. There's no one left to get. Denver is seriously, honestly, truthfully happy with Ron Dayne at RB, whether you believe it or not.Do I argue that someone like TJ Duckett or Thomas Jones would be more productive than Dayne in Denver? No, of course not. In fact, I think Clinton Portis would be more productive than Ron Dayne in Denver this season. I think Mike Anderson would be more productive than Ron Dayne this season. The reason why those two guys aren't on the roster is the same reason why Denver won't get a TJ Duckett or a Thomas Jones to replace Dayne- money. Shanahan can get fantastic production for a bargain basement price, so why on earth would he spend a lot of extra money to get marginally better production? It just doesn't make any sense at all in salary cap football. I mean, if you could rush for 2000 yards while spending $2 million at RB, or 2200 yards while spending $8 million at RB, which would you rather do?

Clinton Portis. Reuben Droughns. Mike Anderson. All 3 led Denver in rushing over the past 3 seasons. Denver allowed all 3 to leave rather than pay them more than minimum salary. As of now, Denver hasn't missed a beat in replacing any of them. Why would they change their business plan when it's so obviously succeeding?

 

[rascal]

Great stuff. Interested in seeing your WR analysis.

 

[LHUCKS]

Great stuff. Interested in seeing your WR analysis.

I'm waiting until after one of my dynasty auctions is complete before posting the WRs.WRs are where the money is at IMHO.

 

[J R]

WRs are where the money is at IMHO.

Oooh, now that sounds intriguing. Are you going to share some strategy tips with this?

 

[LHUCKS]

WRs are where the money is at IMHO.

Oooh, now that sounds intriguing. Are you going to share some strategy tips with this?

is this sarcasm?

 

[SSOG]

WRs are where the money is at IMHO.

Oooh, now that sounds intriguing. Are you going to share some strategy tips with this?

is this sarcasm?

I hate to speak for J R, but it didn't sound sarcastic to me. Also, from what I've seen of him around the boards, he seems to be up the up and up.

 

[LHUCKS]

WRs are where the money is at IMHO.

Oooh, now that sounds intriguing. Are you going to share some strategy tips with this?

Basically it's easiest to find value at WR because results very greatly from year to year. Additionally it's the deepest position in ff.

 

[netnalp]

Quentin Griffin 2004 taught me, draft the Denver starter and trade him after his first big game! Could have gotten 1-2 great players after his game one 156/2 but I kept him and EEEEEECH!

 

[rascal]

WRs are where the money is at IMHO.

Oooh, now that sounds intriguing. Are you going to share some strategy tips with this?

Basically it's easiest to find value at WR because results very greatly from year to year. Additionally it's the deepest position in ff.

It also seems to have a lot of risk (especially last year) with Javon, Andre, Clayton, etc.But the potential rewards for drafting players like Galloway in round 12 or later is huge...just a matter of finding them.

 

[J R]

Thanks for vouching for me, SSOG. I take back all the bad things I planned to say about you in the future.

LHUCKS, from what you said, it sounded like your WR stuff could have some good strategy talk. Like, when I'm sorting through the non-Steve Smiths, I'm looking for x, y, or z.

 

[SSOG]

Quentin Griffin 2004 taught me, draft the Denver starter and trade him after his first big game! Could have gotten 1-2 great players after his game one 156/2 but I kept him and EEEEEECH!

Quentin Griffin is the ONLY Denver RB who would have justified that move. That strategy would have cost you three 1500 yard rushing seasons (one from Anderson, two from Portis), a 1200 yard season from Droughns, and a 1000 yard/12 TD campaign from Mike Anderson last year.

Thanks for vouching for me, SSOG. I take back all the bad things I planned to say about you in the future.

Awww, come on now, where's the fun in that?

 

[ruelvis]

 

[Justloveit]

When is your WR analysis getting posted? Love your work so far.

 

[LHUCKS]

When is your WR analysis getting posted? Love your work so far.

After the MB/Staff draft...no later than mid-July. I've had it finished for quite some time now.

 

[LHUCKS]

But the potential rewards for drafting players like Galloway in round 12 or later is huge...just a matter of finding them.

I agree...I drafted Galloway in over half of the leagues listed in my sig. last year.

 

[diesel7982]

But the potential rewards for drafting players like Galloway in round 12 or later is huge...just a matter of finding them.

I agree...I drafted Galloway in over half of the leagues listed in my sig. last year.

As did I.Smoss/Galloway as my #4/#5 WRs really helped considering my top 2 WRs were Walker/Clayton.

 

[rascal]

But the potential rewards for drafting players like Galloway in round 12 or later is huge...just a matter of finding them.

I agree...I drafted Galloway in over half of the leagues listed in my sig. last year.

As did I.Smoss/Galloway as my #4/#5 WRs really helped considering my top 2 WRs were Walker/Clayton.

I thought I was set with Walker/Clayton/A Johnson/Bruce at WR last year. Talk about a nightmare.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Pre training camp bump.

 

[LHUCKS]

Pre training camp bump.

Not much has changed on my end regarding these RBs. I've knocked Reggie Bush down a bit. Also, FBG has signifcantly raised their consensus ranking of Dayne so he's really no longer as "underrated" as he used to be.

 

[SSOG]

Pre training camp bump.

Not much has changed on my end regarding these RBs. I've knocked Reggie Bush down a bit. Also, FBG has signifcantly raised their consensus ranking of Dayne so he's really no longer as "underrated" as he used to be.

Really? He's still showing as the #33 RB (with Bell still sitting at #24), #59 overall (with only 5 of 15 staffers ranking him in their top-60). His average has moved up in the last week from #58 to #56.2.

 

[LHUCKS]

Pre training camp bump.

Not much has changed on my end regarding these RBs. I've knocked Reggie Bush down a bit. Also, FBG has signifcantly raised their consensus ranking of Dayne so he's really no longer as "underrated" as he used to be.

Really? He's still showing as the #33 RB (with Bell still sitting at #24), #59 overall (with only 5 of 15 staffers ranking him in their top-60). His average has moved up in the last week from #58 to #56.2.

Dayne was ranked #39 at the time this critique was written and his ADP has gone up significantly, so yes he's not as underrated.I have Dayne at #28 right now so he's slight value. In expert drafts that's about where he's been going...thanks in large part by posts by you and me.

 

[pigskinliquors]

Link to Part I: The Quarter Backs

Here’s part II of this year’s critique series. It has taken me a full week to dissect these rankings as these are the tightest set of RB rankings I’ve ever seen from FBG…I mean I think they are really, really good. Here’s what I came up with for the various categories. Enjoy.

OVERRATED

1) Julius Jones #17

Let’s take a look at the prolific career of Mr. Jones…

+--------------------------+-------------------------+ | Rushing | Receiving |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 2004 dal | 8 | 197 819 4.2 7 | 17 109 6.4 0 || 2005 dal | 13 | 257 993 3.9 5 | 35 218 6.2 0 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| TOTAL | 21 | 454 1812 4.0 12 | 52 327 6.3 0 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+Far from impressive if you ask me…of obvious concern is the total amount of games missed over the past two seasons. Julius is the type of player that will let you down when you need him most…in the fantasy playoffs. Last year’s #17 runningback had 1300 total yards and 2 TDs…Julius is yet to match those cumulative numbers. Throw in the fact that Barber is in line for an expanded role in addition to the public criticism from Parcells questioning Julius’ toughness and I think you’ve got yourself a lot of risk and unproven reward. He has been a great PPG player in the past, but with Marion Barber coming on can you even expect that to last? I foresee a lot of RBBC in Bid D in 2006.

Staff With Highest Ranking: Mike Anderson at #12 and Bob Henry at #14

Staff with Lowest Ranking: Jeff Pasquino at #29 and Wimer at #24

LHUCKS Ranking: #26

2) Ronnie Brown #9

Question: What do the following players have in common??

Egerrin James

Cadillac Wiliams

Rudi Johnson

Steven Jackson

Willis McGahee

Reuben Droughns

Willie Parker

Domanick Davis

Answer: They all finished ahead of Brown in ff points last year and are ranked below Ronnie Brown this year. Should they be?

Let’s take a look at Ronnie’s gamelog from last year:

+----------+-------------+--------+----+| WK OPP | RSH YD | RECYD | TD |+----------+-------------+--------+----+| 1 den | 22 57 | 4 | 0 || 2 nyj | 12 35 | 5 | 0 || 3 car | 23 132 | 15 | 1 || 5 buf | 17 97 | 19 | 0 || 6 tam | 9 22 | 44 | 1 || 7 kan | 8 95 | 15 | 1 || 8 nor | 23 106 | 12 | 0 || 9 atl | 12 67 | 11 | 0 || 10 nwe | 14 64 | 28 | 0 || 11 cle | 12 56 | 2 | 0 || 12 oak | 15 58 | 23 | 1 || 13 buf | 9 22 | 30 | 1 || 14 sdg | 11 30 | 0 | 0 || 15 nyj | 12 45 | 11 | 0 || 17 nwe | 8 21 | 13 | 0 |+----------+-------------+--------+----+| TOTAL | 207 907 | 232 | 5 |+----------+-------------+--------+----+Brown amassed 207 carries and 907 rushing yards giving him a respectable 4.4 YPC. So it’s common sense to extrapolate that to a full workload right? Wrong. Looking more closely at the numbers you’ll notice that Brown only had three games with more than 17 carries…not to mention he wasn’t even the primary back at Auburn where he split carries with Cadillac. Additionally after watching all of Ronnie’s games last year he strikes me as the type of runningback without the wiggle and elusiveness to avoid injury in a 300 carry NFL season. He’s a fast, powerful back that takes hits from time to time. We really don’t know what kind of load Ronnie can handle yet.One might feel comfortable drafting Brown ahead of other proven commodities, but I personally don’t. In addition to the 7 backs FBG has ranked ahead of Brown, I have six additional backs ranked ahead of Brown that I see as safer picks with similar upside. This is where I can disagree from time to time with many “experts.” I’d rather take the safe guy that is projected for 276 fantasy points, than the unproven guy projected at 290 points…especially in the first two rounds.

Staff With Highest Ranking: Wimer at #5, Pasquino and Lammey at #6

Staff with Lowest Ranking: Baker #13, David and Joe #12

LHUCKS Ranking: #14

UNDERRATED

1) Ron Dayne # 39

First, here is Mike Anderson’s game log and season totals from last year after splitting with a healthy Tatum Bell for most of the year:

+----------+-------------+--------+----+| WK OPP | RSH YD | RECYD | TD |+----------+-------------+--------+----+| 1 mia | 4 5 | 0 | 0 || 2 sdg | 15 49 | 41 | 0 || 3 kan | 20 98 | 0 | 1 || 4 jax | 23 115 | 27 | 0 || 5 was | 11 34 | 16 | 0 || 6 nwe | 15 57 | 0 | 1 || 7 nyg | 24 120 | 0 | 1 || 8 phi | 21 126 | 16 | 1 || 10 oak | 17 65 | 0 | 1 || 11 nyj | 26 113 | 16 | 3 || 12 dal | 11 31 | 6 | 0 || 13 kan | 13 37 | 66 | 2 || 14 bal | 8 21 | 0 | 0 || 15 buf | 21 97 | 4 | 2 || 16 oak | 10 46 | 20 | 1 |+----------+-------------+--------+----+| TOTAL | 239 1014 | 212 | 13 |+----------+-------------+--------+----+Not too bad, I notice 1200 total yards and 13 TDs in 15 games. Good enough to finish 10th in FBG scoring.Now let’s look at Dayne’s career:

+--------------------------+-------------------------+ | Rushing | Receiving |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 2000 nyg | 16 | 228 770 3.4 5 | 3 11 3.7 0 || 2001 nyg | 16 | 180 690 3.8 7 | 8 67 8.4 0 || 2002 nyg | 16 | 125 428 3.4 3 | 11 49 4.5 0 || 2004 nyg | 14 | 52 179 3.4 1 | 1 7 7.0 0 || 2005 den | 10 | 53 270 5.1 1 | 3 17 5.7 0 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| TOTAL | 72 | 638 2337 3.7 17 | 26 151 5.8 0 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+Here’s what I take of note from here. In his first four years with NYG he only missed two games…that my friends is durability. Not too many human beings can do that. The second stat that jumps out to me is the 5.1 YPC…yes it was bolstered by the big run, but why was that big run a fluke? Denver’s offense consistently produces big runs. No Dayne isn’t a speed demon, but neither was Mike Anderson.Lastly, and most importantly Dayne is running with the first team in minicamp and the Denver GM has stated he expects Dayne to fill Anderson’s shoes.

Whether or not you like Dayne’s talent or not the stars have aligned. He has proven to be durable and he is filling Anderson’s role. It’s not rocket science to put one and one together here. It’s not like Anderson was the most gifted RB either. Just plug in a power runner in that offense and you’re going to get a 1000 yards and double digit TDs. Dayne’s ranking is the worst FBG consensus ranking IMHO.

Staff With Lowest Ranking: Dave Baker Not Ranked, Pasquino #50, Rudnicki #49

Staff With Highest Ranking: Tremblay #19, Lammey #21



LHUCKS Ranking: #24

2) Warrick Dunn #22

Warrick Dunn is fast becoming the Eddie Kennison of RBs…constantly undervalued.

Here are Warrick’s past two seasons:

+--------------------------+-------------------------+ | Rushing | Receiving |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 2004 atl | 16 | 265 1106 4.2 9 | 29 294 10.1 0 || 2005 atl | 16 | 280 1416 5.1 3 | 29 220 7.6 1 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+Last year was good enough for #12 in the FBG rankings yet he is ranked #22 this year with several landmines ranked ahead of him. I’m in the school of thought that believes in most cases the most recent season is the best season to start your stat projections from, (i.e. baseline) in situations where not much has changed. In this situation not much has changed. I’ve currently got Warrick’s yearly totals ahead of several riskier picks ahead of him including the Jones trio: Julius Jones, Thomas Jones and Kevin Jones.Staff With Highest Ranking: Levin #12, Tremblay #15

Staff with Lowest Ranking: Norton #27, Lammey #28

LHUCKS Ranking: #16

3) Marion Barber III #41

Well, as you can see above I’m not too high on Julius Jones and as a result I have Barber ranked well ahead of #41. Here are Barber’s stats from his rookie season:

+--------------------------+-------------------------+ | Rushing | Receiving |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 2005 dal | 13 | 138 538 3.9 5 | 18 115 6.4 0 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| TOTAL | 13 | 138 538 3.9 5 | 18 115 6.4 0 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+Barber finished #35 in his rookie season with over 500 yards rushing while remaining somewhat durable playing in 13 games as a rookie. Expect to see Barber’s role expanded as he improves on his rookie campaign. Parcells has already stated he’ll have an expanded role in ’06. But here’s the beauty of Barber in ’06, once Julius goes down you’re going to get starting RB numbers from him because he has got the skills…whether or not he can do it for an entire season is the only question remaining. I love his risk/reward this year and believe he should be ranked a full seven spots higher than his FBG ranking.

Staff With Highest Ranking: John Norton #37, Will Grant #36

Staff with Lowest Ranking: Not ranked by Mike Anderson and Dave Baker

LHUCKS Ranking: #34

FBG Shark Ranking - Excellent Ranking by the FBG Staff

1) Reggie Bush Ranked #23

ESPN Ranking: #14

CBS Sportsline Ranking: #14

Let’s start by taking a look at the rookie seasons of some of the top runningbacks in the game both present and future, including two of the top rushers in NFL history:

Shaun Alexander: 354 Total Yards, 2 TDs behind Ricky Watters

Larry Johnson: 86 Total Yards, 1 TD

Barry Sanders: 1752 Total Yards, 14 TDs (5.2 YPC)

Clinton Portis: 1872 Total Yards, 17 TDs

Tiki Barber: 810 Total Yards, 4 TDs

Emmit Smith: 1165 Total Yards, 11 TDs

Cadillac Williams: 1259 Total Yards, 6 TDs

Charlie Garner: 473 Total Yards, 3 TDs

Warrick Dunn: 1440 Total Yards, 7 TDs

So as you can see the stats are all over the place for several of the elite runningbacks over the past couple of decades. But this is where the rubber meets the road: Reggie Bush is not an every down back which is what most of the top producers from above were. Yes he is explosive and yes he was the best player in the draft but that doesn’t mean he should be ranked #14 ahead of other backs that have proven they can carry a full load for an entire NFL season...or at the very least have a couple of years of NFL experience to help them weather the storm of a grueling 16 game schedule. Even if Deuce is unable to play Reggie will not get a full load because the Saints know he’s not that kind of back…not yet anyhow.

Throw in the fact that you’ve got Deuce McCallister ahead of him in addition to several other capable targets/weapons and I think it’s clear that a #14 ranking is a real reach. The #14 RB last year had over 1600 total yards and 2 TDs…Reggie will not sniff that yardage and as shown above very few backs have as well. Those that did played the majority of the season as the RB#1, not the RB#2 slash Special Teams Returner slash WR.

A quick quote from the HC Payton, "I do think we have two good players…both will be on the field at times, and it will be the problem we have as coaches to utilize them well. That's a good problem."

Trust me, I think Reggie is the goods and for my money he’s the best college runningback I’ve seen play, but for the previously mentioned reasons there are better options for you this year in the second or third round of your drafts. The FBG ranking of #23 is almost exactly where I would take him…nice ranking by FBG. ======================================================

Those are the RBs, but I always say the money is made at the WR position so I’ll try to churn those out by early next week.

These don't look much better than the QB or WR rankings:For all his RB ratings click here...

Overrated:

Julius Jones at 17: FBG's nailed this; LHucks not so much

Brown at (9): FBG's again closer than Lhucks who had him @ #11

Underrated:

R. Dayne @ 39; I think we can safely say that Dayne wasn't underrated this year

Dunn @22; actual rating right in between FBG's and LHucks

Barber @ 41: Good call by LHucks ats he's outperforming FBG rankings

Of these Five LHucks tidbits; he was right on one, wrong on three; push on one.