LHUCKS Draft Strategy 2009 (1 Viewer)

[LHUCKS]

Link to Leg 1: The QB Position

Normally I put out my "Rankings Critique" earlier in the year, but this year I'm going with a different approach for a couple of different reasons. First, FBG rankings are ranked according to projections...that doesn't do an average drafter much good in terms of where to draft guys in a typical redraft head to head format. Second, I don't project static values for projections, because they aren't very valuable IMHO. I project ranges that are skewed by "risk factors"....thus it never really made sense to perform those critiques since my rankings and FBG rankings are based on two completely different premises, although I do think they brought about some good discussion, maybe next year I'll do both.

Below is the non-ppr RB ADP and how I would strategize accordingly.

Green = Players to Target

Red = Stay Away (at current ADP)

I never draft the players in red unless they have an uncharacteristic slide. If players are not highlighted that means I'd consider drafting them at their current ADP but wouldn't necessarily target them.

1 Adrian Peterson

2 Maurice Jones-Drew

3 Michael Turner

4 Matt Forte CHI

5 Steven Jackson

6 LaDainian Tomlinson

8 DeAngelo Williams

9 Chris Johnson

13 Frank Gore

14 Steve Slaton

17 Brian Westbrook

18 Brandon Jacobs

19 Clinton Portis

20 Marion Barber

27 Ronnie Brown

29 Ryan Grant

32 Pierre Thomas

33 Kevin Smith

41 Darren McFadden

43 Marshawn Lynch

47 Thomas Jones

48 Joseph Addai

50 Reggie Bush

54 Larry Johnson

55 Knowshon Moreno

56 Derrick Ward

61 Willie Parker

64 Jonathan Stewart

66 LenDale White

74 Chris Wells

75 Ray Rice

76 Cedric Benson

82 Felix Jones DAL

85 Donald Brown

86 Jamal Lewis

92 Darren Sproles

93 Julius Jones

103 Tim Hightower

106 Earnest Graham

107 Ahmad Bradshaw

108 Fred Jackson

112 Willis McGahee

113 LeSean McCoy

114 Rashard Mendenhall

118 Leon Washington

125 LeRon McClain

127 Fred Taylor NE

128 Chester Taylor

138 Jerious Norwood

142 Ricky Williams

150 Shonn Greene

160 Laurence Maroney

163 Sammy Morris

170 Jamaal Charles

182 Michael Bush

191 T.J. Duckett

192 Justin Fargas

196 Correll Buckhalter

209 Kevin Faulk NE

212 Jerome Harrison

214 Tashard Choice

219 Ladell Betts WAS

223 Peyton Hillis

225 Glen Coffee

232 Kevin Jones

235 Dominic Rhodes

237 James Davis

238 Rashad Jennings

241 Brandon Jackson

250 Mewelde Moore

253 Bernard Scott

RB Strategy Summary

In most leagues I have been targeting DeAngelo or MJD...I expect both to put up huge numbers with consistency, consistency being the key...AP and Turner may put up big numbers but you wont get the consistency IMHO. I'm finding Kevin Smith, FWP and Lynch on a lot of my teams too. Later round fliers I like Felix Jones, Bradshaw, James Davis and either Cardinal RB...all have tremendous upside.

If you have any questions about why I like particular players or my strategy feel free to ask. I'll try to answer all questions as they come in.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

8 DeAngelo Williams

20 Marion Barber

64 Jonathan Stewart

82 Felix Jones DAL

Curious about what you think of these guys. Would have expected you to be bearish on Stewart if you are bullish on Deangelo. Ditto for Barber vs Felix.

 

[LHUCKS]

8 DeAngelo Williams

20 Marion Barber

64 Jonathan Stewart

82 Felix Jones DAL

Curious about what you think of these guys. Would have expected you to be bearish on Stewart if you are bullish on Deangelo. Ditto for Barber vs Felix.

Stewart presents so much upside when coupled with a Deangelo injury that his ADP is somewhat justified...and as we saw last year, Stewart has the ability to put up big numbers even without a Deangelo injury.Felix is almost the exact same category, in terms of having a very high ceiling. Given Barber's angry running, and injury history I think he's a great "shark" pick this year...I've stashed him in over 50% of leagues. We'll see what Garret has planned for him, but he will be a situational start even without a Barber injury.

 

[the spanker]

8 DeAngelo Williams

20 Marion Barber

64 Jonathan Stewart

82 Felix Jones DAL

Curious about what you think of these guys. Would have expected you to be bearish on Stewart if you are bullish on Deangelo. Ditto for Barber vs Felix.

Stewart presents so much upside when coupled with a Deangelo injury that his ADP is somewhat justified...and as we saw last year, Stewart has the ability to put up big numbers even without a Deangelo injury.Felix is almost the exact same category, in terms of having a very high ceiling. Given Barber's angry running, and injury history I think he's a great "shark" pick this year...I've stashed him in over 50% of leagues. We'll see what Garret has planned for him, but he should be a situational start even without a Barber injury.

If Barber were to get injured how will this change the value of Felix? Choice just comes in and fills Barber's void.

 

[LHUCKS]

If Barber were to get injured how will this change the value of Felix? Choice just comes in and fills Barber's void.

My opinion is that Jones will see an expanded role, which will catapult him to a top 15ish RB...Choice would obviously help pick up some of the slack, but the more important outcome would be the expanded role for Felix.

 

[the spanker]

If Barber were to get injured how will this change the value of Felix? Choice just comes in and fills Barber's void.

My opinion is that Jones will see an expanded role, which will catapult him to a top 15ish RB...Choice would obviously help pick up some of the slack, but the more important outcome would be the expanded role for Felix.

How much can Felix's role be expanded than it is now? He's allready doing KR and starting. Choice was a dominant force last year that ran over some of the best D's in the league. Pittisburg, Ravens and Giants if my memory serves correctly.I sincerly doubt Felix gets more work. Especially if you want him to survive the season.

 

[LHUCKS]

How much can Felix's role be expanded than it is now? He's allready doing KR and starting.

I'm purely talking about touches...from a fantasy perspective that's all I count. Wouldn't be surprised to see his special teams role diminish in this instance as well.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

You are high on both Shonn Greene and Leon Washington. Do you see Thomas Jones getting cut?

 

[the spanker]

How much can Felix's role be expanded than it is now? He's allready doing KR and starting.

I'm purely talking about touches...from a fantasy perspective that's all I count. Wouldn't be surprised to see his special teams role diminish in this instance as well.

Ok but if that happens the team loses in special teams play. I still think he being maximized right now Barber or no Barber. He doesn't strike me as the most durable guy and I wonder if he'll make it 16 games this season to tell u the truth.

 

[SouthJersey]

Why are you high on Marshawn, Parker, and the Zona RBs?

 

[kremenull]

In a non-ppr you apply DO NOT DRAFT to Adrian Peterson, unless he slides dramatically? In non-ppr, "All-Day" is a no-brainer to target as the #1 player. There aren't many backs these days with 2,000 plus yard potential (total yds). And he has to be the best bet to achieve it (2k or more).

 

[Mr Capicollo]

the only reason you must have to have AP in red is you have a crystal ball that says he's gonna get hurt and miss a lot of games. Based on talent, match-ups, and age he's poised for a huge season.

Agree on Derrick Ward and a few others you have identified. Willie Parker isn't one though, he's destined for obscurity going forward IMO.

 

[LHUCKS]

How much can Felix's role be expanded than it is now? He's allready doing KR and starting.

I'm purely talking about touches...from a fantasy perspective that's all I count. Wouldn't be surprised to see his special teams role diminish in this instance as well.

Ok but if that happens the team loses in special teams play. I still think he being maximized right now Barber or no Barber. He doesn't strike me as the most durable guy and I wonder if he'll make it 16 games this season to tell u the truth.

Last year it was a toe injury and a hamstring injury...it's not like he broke ribs, tore an ACL or had concussion...it was a toe and a hamstring. His injury risk is overstated quite honestly.

 

[Justloveit]

I recall you being very down on Reggie Bush when he was entering the league. How has your opinion of him changed? Obviously you're happy with his ADP, besides this though do you not agree that he is still a signficant injury risk? Is your bullish sentiment on him reserved for PPR leagues only?

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

I recall you being very down on Reggie Bush when he was entering the league. How has your opinion of him changed? Obviously you're happy with his ADP, besides this though do you not agree that he is still a signficant injury risk? Is your bullish sentiment on him reserved for PPR leagues only?

Well, he has him in green, and this is for non-PPR.

 

[the spanker]

How much can Felix's role be expanded than it is now? He's allready doing KR and starting.

I'm purely talking about touches...from a fantasy perspective that's all I count. Wouldn't be surprised to see his special teams role diminish in this instance as well.

Ok but if that happens the team loses in special teams play. I still think he being maximized right now Barber or no Barber. He doesn't strike me as the most durable guy and I wonder if he'll make it 16 games this season to tell u the truth.

Last year it was a toe injury and a hamstring injury...it's not like he broke ribs, tore an ACL or had concussion...it was a toe and a hamstring. His injury risk is overstated quite honestly.

If the toe becomes really bothersome like LT was affected last year then he loses the key element that makes him so valuable on the field, his speed and explosiveness. I agree with you injuries can't necessarily be predicted but if they push this guy too far, I can see him breaking down as the season wears on.

 

[LHUCKS]

Why are you high on Marshawn, Parker, and the Zona RBs?

I think the Buffalo offense will be improved this year and Lynch will have a lot more room to run...additionally the three week discount isn't bad...although a lot of my sleeper QBs are going around where Marshawn is going so I find him on my teams where I go QB early. If I employ my sleeper QB strategy he hasn't been on a lot of my squads.FWP is a tremendous sleeper....Mendenhall is not a threat at all. When FWP is healthy he is predictably strong and he's looked great this preseason...his wear and tear really isn't that bad either when compared to a lot of other top backs.The Zona RBs are just great value with upside...Wiz wants to run the ball more, he just hasn't had the horses. In a high powered offense you could do a lot worse where their ADP is currently at.

 

[LHUCKS]

the only reason you must have to have AP in red is you have a crystal ball that says he's gonna get hurt and miss a lot of games. Based on talent, match-ups, and age he's poised for a huge season.

I made AP red to highlight the fact I have him ranked 3rd behind MJD and Williams. AP could very well have a huge season, but I think Williams and MJD will too...but with more consistency. They are just safer picks IMHO with comparable upside.

 

[LHUCKS]

You are high on both Shonn Greene and Leon Washington. Do you see Thomas Jones getting cut?

Shonn Greene was supposed to be red.(my mistake)Washington is the most dynamic offensive weapon on the Jets...if Rex wants to win, he's going to get Leon the ball. Jones is coming off a big workload at the age of 31 with a younger, more dynamic back behind him. Don't like Jones at all this year.

 

[LHUCKS]

If the toe becomes really bothersome like LT was affected last year then he loses the key element that makes him so valuable on the field, his speed and explosiveness. I agree with you injuries can't necessarily be predicted but if they push this guy too far, I can see him breaking down as the season wears on.

He's had surgery on the toe, which usually fixes the problem.Why do you think he'll break down? He does have a lean frame, but if he's used in Reggie Bush-esque fashion could still easily put up starter numbers. I don't think Garret is going to ram him between the tackles too often.

 

[timschochet]

Why are you high on Marshawn, Parker, and the Zona RBs?

I think the Buffalo offense will be improved this year and Lynch will have a lot more room to run...additionally the three week discount isn't bad...although a lot of my sleeper QBs are going around where Marshawn is going so I find him on my teams where I go QB early. If I employ my sleeper QB strategy he hasn't been on a lot of my squads.FWP is a tremendous sleeper....Mendenhall is not a threat at all. When FWP is healthy he is predictably strong and he's looked great this preseason...his wear and tear really isn't that bad either when compared to a lot of other top backs.

The Zona RBs are just great value with upside...Wiz wants to run the ball more, he just hasn't had the horses. In a high powered offense you could do a lot worse where their ADP is currently at.

Man I hope you're right, because I now own Lynch and Fred Jackson. But I watched the Steelers Bills replay today and that Buffalo offense looks AWFULL- especially Trent Edwards. Ugh.

 

[LHUCKS]

Man I hope you're right, because I now own Lynch and Fred Jackson. But I watched the Steelers Bills replay today and that Buffalo offense looks AWFULL- especially Trent Edwards. Ugh.

They haven't looked good, but I think they're better than they're showing...I'm not putting that much stock into the Bills preseason right now. T.O. will open that offense as well.

 

[the spanker]

If the toe becomes really bothersome like LT was affected last year then he loses the key element that makes him so valuable on the field, his speed and explosiveness. I agree with you injuries can't necessarily be predicted but if they push this guy too far, I can see him breaking down as the season wears on.

He's had surgery on the toe, which usually fixes the problem.Why do you think he'll break down? He does have a lean frame, but if he's used in Reggie Bush-esque fashion could still easily put up starter numbers. I don't think Garret is going to ram him between the tackles too often.

Just saying if his touches are expanded beyond what it is now he becomes dicey. Choice is capable of filling Barber's shoes if need be. I'm surprised the Cowboys don't use a 3-headed RBBC. If they were smart they would employ the Earth Wind and Fire philosophy the Giants had last year.Not good for fantasy but better to keep all three fresh. Especially with Parcell's job probably being on the line this year.

 

[LHUCKS]

Just saying if his touches are expanded beyond what it is now he becomes dicey. Choice is capable of filling Barber's shoes if need be. I'm surprised the Cowboys don't use a 3-headed RBBC. If they were smart they would employ the Earth Wind and Fire philosophy the Giants had last year.Not good for fantasy but better to keep all three fresh. Especially with Parcell's job probably being on the line this year.

I think they will employ that strategy to a degree, but Choice isn't the back that Barber is so you've got to play your horse if you want to win games...Barber is the horse, particularly at the goalline.As for Felix, he's going to really turn some heads this year...he's got electrifying ability. I'm not talking about Jerious Norwood type ability, I'm talking about one of the best open field runners in the game right now ability. He is special.

 

[the spanker]

Just saying if his touches are expanded beyond what it is now he becomes dicey. Choice is capable of filling Barber's shoes if need be. I'm surprised the Cowboys don't use a 3-headed RBBC. If they were smart they would employ the Earth Wind and Fire philosophy the Giants had last year.Not good for fantasy but better to keep all three fresh. Especially with Parcell's job probably being on the line this year.

I think they will employ that strategy to a degree, but Choice isn't the back that Barber is so you've got to play your horse if you want to win games...Barber is the horse, particularly at the goalline.As for Felix, he's going to really turn some heads this year...he's got electrifying ability. I'm not talking about Jerious Norwood type ability, I'm talking about one of the best open field runners in the game right now ability. He is special.

No disagreement there. Your high on Hillis and Charles? You seem something going on with these two guys this year? Also no mention of Sproles? I guess you think LT will bounce back?

 

[LHUCKS]

I recall you being very down on Reggie Bush when he was entering the league. How has your opinion of him changed? Obviously you're happy with his ADP, besides this though do you not agree that he is still a signficant injury risk? Is your bullish sentiment on him reserved for PPR leagues only?

I think his ADP has finally given us the risk/reward ratio we're looking from to make him a value pick.

 

[LHUCKS]

Just saying if his touches are expanded beyond what it is now he becomes dicey. Choice is capable of filling Barber's shoes if need be. I'm surprised the Cowboys don't use a 3-headed RBBC. If they were smart they would employ the Earth Wind and Fire philosophy the Giants had last year.Not good for fantasy but better to keep all three fresh. Especially with Parcell's job probably being on the line this year.

I think they will employ that strategy to a degree, but Choice isn't the back that Barber is so you've got to play your horse if you want to win games...Barber is the horse, particularly at the goalline.As for Felix, he's going to really turn some heads this year...he's got electrifying ability. I'm not talking about Jerious Norwood type ability, I'm talking about one of the best open field runners in the game right now ability. He is special.

No disagreement there. Your high on Hillis and Charles? You seem something going on with these two guys this year? Also no mention of Sproles? I guess you think LT will bounce back?

LT is a warrior and knows how to avoid big hits...much like Emmit and Cumar did. LT will be an above average back for at least a few more years IMHO. I'm a huge Sproles fan, but he's not getting the touches unless LT goes down and I like LT's ability to avoid injury this year.Hillis - I just like this guy in situational starts...the Patriots scheme seems to fit him too. You could do worse at his ADP...particularly with C-Buck and the rookie Moreno as his competition...I've been unimpressed with both thus far.Charles - LJ is a headcase...bottom line. When I watch Charles run I say to myself, "this kid should be starting somewhere." I'm not saying LJ is done, I'm just saying it's not far fetched to see Charles making a fantasy impact this year.

 

[the spanker]

Just saying if his touches are expanded beyond what it is now he becomes dicey. Choice is capable of filling Barber's shoes if need be. I'm surprised the Cowboys don't use a 3-headed RBBC. If they were smart they would employ the Earth Wind and Fire philosophy the Giants had last year.Not good for fantasy but better to keep all three fresh. Especially with Parcell's job probably being on the line this year.

I think they will employ that strategy to a degree, but Choice isn't the back that Barber is so you've got to play your horse if you want to win games...Barber is the horse, particularly at the goalline.As for Felix, he's going to really turn some heads this year...he's got electrifying ability. I'm not talking about Jerious Norwood type ability, I'm talking about one of the best open field runners in the game right now ability. He is special.

No disagreement there. Your high on Hillis and Charles? You seem something going on with these two guys this year? Also no mention of Sproles? I guess you think LT will bounce back?

LT is a warrior and knows how to avoid big hits...much like Emmit and Cumar did. LT will be an above average back for at least a few more years IMHO. I'm a huge Sproles fan, but he's not getting the touches unless LT goes down and I like LT's ability to avoid injury this year.Hillis - I just like this guy in situational starts...the Patriots scheme seems to fit him too. You could do worse at his ADP...particularly with C-Buck and the rookie Moreno as his competition...I've been unimpressed with both thus far.Charles - LJ is a headcase...bottom line. When I watch Charles run I say to myself, "this kid should be starting somewhere." I'm not saying LJ is done, I'm just saying it's not far fetched to see Charles making a fantasy impact this year.

I'm not concerned about LT as I'm much more worried about his O-line. Plus he has no FB. Just reading on here (haven't actually seen) but in preseason games talked about said LT just doesn't have the same explosion. I know it's preseason but we are gonna find out very soon how much he has left in the tank.Agree with your comment about Charles. He's another special player who looks like he could have an impact somewhere for sure.

 

[LHUCKS]

I'm not concerned about LT as I'm much more worried about his O-line. Plus he has no FB. Just reading on here (haven't actually seen) but in preseason games talked about said LT just doesn't have the same explosion. I know it's preseason but we are gonna find out very soon how much he has left in the tank.Agree with your comment about Charles. He's another special player who looks like he could have an impact somewhere for sure.

I watch every preseason game and LT has looked slow, but he almost always starts the season slow...this year they've played him in the preseason to get rid of the slow start syndrome. We will find out soon, but even if he has a pedestrian YPC, he's not going to disappear fantasy wise. With a good defense and a good offense, LT will be just fine, maybe just not as electrfiying as he once was, but he'll put up good numbers IMHO.

 

[the spanker]

I'm not concerned about LT as I'm much more worried about his O-line. Plus he has no FB. Just reading on here (haven't actually seen) but in preseason games talked about said LT just doesn't have the same explosion. I know it's preseason but we are gonna find out very soon how much he has left in the tank.Agree with your comment about Charles. He's another special player who looks like he could have an impact somewhere for sure.

I watch every preseason game and LT has looked slow, but he almost always starts the season slow...this year they've played him in the preseason to get rid of the slow start syndrome. We will find out soon, but even if he has a pedestrian YPC, he's not going to disappear fantasy wise. With a good defense and a good offense, LT will be just fine, maybe just not as electrfiying as he once was, but he'll put up good numbers IMHO.

Your probably right but I can see Sproles being involved if LT struggles out of the gate. Sproles is just so explosive himself. They franchised the guy so I wonder why do that if your not going to use him?Also LT stated he wanted Spoles in a "2-H" package with him on offense to be used together. Makes sense to me but we shall see I guess.

 

[LHUCKS]

I'm not concerned about LT as I'm much more worried about his O-line. Plus he has no FB. Just reading on here (haven't actually seen) but in preseason games talked about said LT just doesn't have the same explosion. I know it's preseason but we are gonna find out very soon how much he has left in the tank.Agree with your comment about Charles. He's another special player who looks like he could have an impact somewhere for sure.

I watch every preseason game and LT has looked slow, but he almost always starts the season slow...this year they've played him in the preseason to get rid of the slow start syndrome. We will find out soon, but even if he has a pedestrian YPC, he's not going to disappear fantasy wise. With a good defense and a good offense, LT will be just fine, maybe just not as electrfiying as he once was, but he'll put up good numbers IMHO.

Your probably right but I can see Sproles being involved if LT struggles out of the gate. Sproles is just so explosive himself. They franchised the guy so I wonder why do that if your not going to use him?Also LT stated he wanted Spoles in a "2-H" package with him on offense to be used together. Makes sense to me but we shall see I guess.

Sproles is definitely going to have a major role, I just don't think it will impact LT's value.

 

[the spanker]

I'm not concerned about LT as I'm much more worried about his O-line. Plus he has no FB. Just reading on here (haven't actually seen) but in preseason games talked about said LT just doesn't have the same explosion. I know it's preseason but we are gonna find out very soon how much he has left in the tank.Agree with your comment about Charles. He's another special player who looks like he could have an impact somewhere for sure.

I watch every preseason game and LT has looked slow, but he almost always starts the season slow...this year they've played him in the preseason to get rid of the slow start syndrome. We will find out soon, but even if he has a pedestrian YPC, he's not going to disappear fantasy wise. With a good defense and a good offense, LT will be just fine, maybe just not as electrfiying as he once was, but he'll put up good numbers IMHO.

Your probably right but I can see Sproles being involved if LT struggles out of the gate. Sproles is just so explosive himself. They franchised the guy so I wonder why do that if your not going to use him?Also LT stated he wanted Spoles in a "2-H" package with him on offense to be used together. Makes sense to me but we shall see I guess.

Sproles is definitely going to have a major role, I just don't think it will impact LT's value.

Ok well I really love your informative post and look forward to talking to you soon perhaps by PM. Talk to you soon I have to hit the sack.

 

[Knobs]

I appreciate you doing this. I'll save my mocking for another thread, but that's only because mocking LHUCKS is seemingly the cool thing to do.

Why is Ryan Grant not a massive target to buy? With his yardage, and the lack of competition, the only thing that's keeping his ADP at #16 rb is his lack of touchdowns from last year. It seems he's being drafted at his FLOOR. He's healthy to start this year and GB looks to have an explosive offense. What's the problem?

Also, Julius Jones. He's listed at rb #37. He's without question a mediocre talent (at best). Who else will supplant him as the rb? Edge? He sure looked over the hill but if you think he will be the guy then he should at least be a buy. IIRC, Knapp (Seattle's o-coordinator) has never had a rushing attack that finished outside the top ten. I would be absolutely stunned if anyone there finished in the top ten, and I'd be fairly surprised if someone even finished top 20.

But if Jones stays healthy (or on a ppg basis), I just don't believe he'll finish as the #37 rb overall.

 

[Finless]

Adrian Peterson - Avoid at all costs

So you're okay with Turner at #3 but not with Peterson at #1?

 

[eagles2007]

let's compare your consistency theory:

adrian peterson: 1 game last year of less than 75 yards rushing; 10 games of at least 100 yards rushing. i'll take that.

deangelo williams: 6 games of less than 75 yards rushing; 7 games of more than 100 yards rushing.

do you really expect the TD differential to be almost 2:1 again? i don't. you take williams. i'll take peterson.

 

[switz]

After reviewing your QB thread... then starting to look at your RB thread, I've decided just to ignore the rest.

 

[bostonfred]

After reviewing your QB thread... then starting to look at your RB thread, I've decided just to ignore the rest.

These are usually productive threads once people stop making these comments. Whether you agree with him or not, he answers just about any questions people have and he puts his guys out there for people to see. I think that should be encouraged, even if you don't agree with the rankings or like the messenger. The one I'm a little confused by is:

75 Ray Rice

112 Willis McGahee

125 LeRon McClain

I can see liking the two running backs at their ADP, since the total rushing output for Baltimore should be high and yet both are relatively cheap. But what would you actually do in a draft? Would you take both? Would you take McGahee if you missed on Rice?

 

[switz]

After reviewing your QB thread... then starting to look at your RB thread, I've decided just to ignore the rest.

These are usually productive threads once people stop making these comments. Whether you agree with him or not, he answers just about any questions people have and he puts his guys out there for people to see. I think that should be encouraged, even if you don't agree with the rankings or like the messenger.

I actually have no issue with LHUCKS... but I found that the QB thread was not productive at all when discussing the rankings. I just feel LHUCKS put some of his marks on the list for shock value only, and that merits no discussion.AP a DO NOT DRAFT? He's a lock to finish top-5, he's not the #1 overall RB in every league, you could get him at the #2, maybe even #3 pick, so I just don't see how he could have him in red, black, maybe, but red? Come on.I like a lot of his green marks mid way down, to be honest... I just think this thread is gonna fall apart like the QB thread did...

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

9 Chris Johnson

13 Frank Gore

14 Steve Slaton

17 Brian Westbrook

18 Brandon Jacobs

19 Clinton Portis

20 Marion Barber

27 Ronnie Brown

29 Ryan Grant

32 Pierre Thomas

Lhucks, Im a little disappointed that this tier of low end RB1/RB2s are nothing more than draft at ADP. to me ferreting out which of these guys to draft and even target means alot, especially picking at the end of round1.

Personally in PPR Im targeting Slaton at the round1/2 turn and Grant at the 3/4 turn.

Portis and barbers value have slid mightily at the two live drafts I've done and seem to be decent targets for peopl at the bottom of round 2 if you has a top pick.

 

[HellToupee]

Link to Leg 1: The QB Position

Normally I put out my "Rankings Critique" earlier in the year, but this year I'm going with a different approach for a couple of different reasons. First, FBG rankings are ranked according to projections...that doesn't do an average drafter much good in terms of where to draft guys in a typical redraft head to head format. Second, I don't project static values for projections, because they aren't very valuable IMHO. I project ranges that are skewed by "risk factors"....thus it never really made sense to perform those critiques since my rankings and FBG rankings are based on two completely different premises, although I do think they brought about some good discussion, maybe next year I'll do both.

Below is the non-ppr RB ADP and how I would strategize accordingly.

Green = Players to Target

Red = Stay Away

I never draft the players in red unless they have an uncharacteristic slide. If players are not highlighted that means I'd consider drafting them at their current ADP but wouldn't necessarily target them.

1 Adrian Peterson

this may be a well thought out post but this is where I stopped reading.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Link to Leg 1: The QB Position

Normally I put out my "Rankings Critique" earlier in the year, but this year I'm going with a different approach for a couple of different reasons. First, FBG rankings are ranked according to projections...that doesn't do an average drafter much good in terms of where to draft guys in a typical redraft head to head format. Second, I don't project static values for projections, because they aren't very valuable IMHO. I project ranges that are skewed by "risk factors"....thus it never really made sense to perform those critiques since my rankings and FBG rankings are based on two completely different premises, although I do think they brought about some good discussion, maybe next year I'll do both.

Below is the non-ppr RB ADP and how I would strategize accordingly.

Green = Players to Target

Red = Stay Away

I never draft the players in red unless they have an uncharacteristic slide. If players are not highlighted that means I'd consider drafting them at their current ADP but wouldn't necessarily target them.

1 Adrian Peterson

this may be a well thought out post but this is where I stopped reading.

I think you guys are all missing the point.He is saying that ADP is overrated at #1.

Is there a better choice at #1? I dont think so, but is it so crazy to take MJD or DeAngelo? I dont think so.

Dismissing the post because of that is wrong, ADP is very talented and uber stud and all, but to me fantasy numbers wise he has been #3 in FBG scoring each of the last two years.

He looks like a slam dunk andwe are all awaiting that giant monster 2000yd 22 TD season

 

[LHUCKS]

let's compare your consistency theory:adrian peterson: 1 game last year of less than 75 yards rushing; 10 games of at least 100 yards rushing. i'll take that.deangelo williams: 6 games of less than 75 yards rushing; 7 games of more than 100 yards rushing.

who can tell me why this isn't a fair comparison?

 

[LHUCKS]

9 Chris Johnson 13 Frank Gore14 Steve Slaton17 Brian Westbrook 18 Brandon Jacobs 19 Clinton Portis 20 Marion Barber 27 Ronnie Brown 29 Ryan Grant 32 Pierre Thomas Lhucks, Im a little disappointed that this tier of low end RB1/RB2s are nothing more than draft at ADP. to me ferreting out which of these guys to draft and even target means alot, especially picking at the end of round1. Personally in PPR Im targeting Slaton at the round1/2 turn and Grant at the 3/4 turn. Portis and barbers value have slid mightily at the two live drafts I've done and seem to be decent targets for peopl at the bottom of round 2 if you has a top pick.

Meh, all these guys are going about where they should...I'm not projecting any to bust or any of them to explode. They are almost ranked to a tee by ceiling so I just don't have any strong feelings here. If you put a gun to my head I would say Grant offers the most value and Westbrook offers the most risk.

 

[LHUCKS]

AP a DO NOT DRAFT?

That's not what I'm saying here. I just added some language for red players to make it more clear for Switz.Red = Stay Away (at current ADP)

 

[Norseman]

let's compare your consistency theory:adrian peterson: 1 game last year of less than 75 yards rushing; 10 games of at least 100 yards rushing. i'll take that.deangelo williams: 6 games of less than 75 yards rushing; 7 games of more than 100 yards rushing.

who can tell me why this isn't a fair comparison?

Because he is using facts?

 

[LHUCKS]

let's compare your consistency theory:adrian peterson: 1 game last year of less than 75 yards rushing; 10 games of at least 100 yards rushing. i'll take that.deangelo williams: 6 games of less than 75 yards rushing; 7 games of more than 100 yards rushing.

who can tell me why this isn't a fair comparison?

Because he is using facts?

Why are the facts misleading at best?

 

[LHUCKS]

Adrian Peterson - Avoid at all costs

No that's not what I'm saying. I'm saying I don't like AP at his ADP... a lot different than "at all costs."

So you're okay with Turner at #3 but not with Peterson at #1.

Exactly.

 

[LHUCKS]

Why is Ryan Grant not a massive target to buy? With his yardage, and the lack of competition, the only thing that's keeping his ADP at #16 rb is his lack of touchdowns from last year. It seems he's being drafted at his FLOOR. He's healthy to start this year and GB looks to have an explosive offense. What's the problem?

Receiving yardage and TDs...that's the problem. That said, Grant is a decent buy and a borderline "green" player.

 

[HellToupee]

Adrian Peterson - Avoid at all costs

No that's not what I'm saying. I'm saying I don't like AP at his ADP... a lot different than "at all costs."

So you're okay with Turner at #3 but not with Peterson at #1.

Exactly.

out of curiosity where would you take ADP3? 5? 10?

 

[LHUCKS]

The one I'm a little confused by is:

75 Ray Rice

112 Willis McGahee

125 LeRon McClain

I can see liking the two running backs at their ADP, since the total rushing output for Baltimore should be high and yet both are relatively cheap. But what would you actually do in a draft? Would you take both? Would you take McGahee if you missed on Rice?

Hard to say what I would do in a draft given the complexity and the different factors that alter strategy, but I do like both at their current ADP. I'm basically saying I would be pleased to land both at their current ADP. That's all really. I'm not a "must handcuff" drafter...if I missed Rice, I would still consider McGahee as a middle round flier. If I got Rice I wouldn't be disappointed if I missed McGahee...if I did that means there were other players that I liked more.