LHUCKS Draft Strategy 2009 (1 Viewer)

[ditka...mike ditka]

On the contrary, i have no problem at all with the poster. I dont really know what he is all about. However, you cant argue the overvaluing of AP's ADP since 1.1 is widely considered the only place you can obtain AP from. Getting ADP at 1.3 isnt representing value because you simply cannot get him there. If you could, then I would see your point. It's kind of like this: Say someone was giving out prizes of $50, $25 and $10. If you are 3rd in line, then there is no chance you get the $50 prize. Simply because the $50 would NEVER be there after the first 2 people in line picked. That's my point. How can someone represent good value at 1.3 when there is no chance of AP ever gonig there?

I see what you are saying, but you can never say never. There are many irrational people out there, so I am sure AP has gone 3rd in a draft or two. In fact, in my draft last week I got AP and #2 overall, even though I was all set to take MJD. There is a new guy (who I dont know, I actually only know 2 people in the league) in the league, and he drew first pick. I guess he grew up with Brandon Jacobs so he took him. I actually sat there and debated for a min, because I was set on MJD and really like him this year, but ultimately still went with Peterson because I have 2nd pick in another draft coming up, and I know AP is going first in that one, so i'll take MJD then. Suprisingly the guy actually drafted a solid team after that, but thats besides the point. People make irrational decisions, so you can never say never.

 

[switz]

AP has missed time regularly since High School...we're not talking abuout Curtis Martin here.

How about this, I get Michael Turner you get AP. 100 bucks says Turner misses fewer games than AP?

Would you want that action?

High school? Are you kidding? AP has missed 2 games in 2 years since turning pro. What does any of this have to do with Michael Turner?

That's one way to spin it...he's average only 12 starts per season since entering the NFL. LINK

Come on LHUCKS. You know that CT got 7 starts in AP's rookie season, because of just that AP was a rookie. If there's ever an example of disingenuous use of stats, that's it. Just admit you were wrong about AP, and get over it. More than a few people have already pointed out your take is way off base.

Of course I was disingenuous...I was making a pointMy point was that stating he's only missed two games is misleading at best...how many games were his carries limited due to injury, that is the better question...and the answer may surprise you.

Well, let's see... in 2008, his minimum # of carries was 17, it happened twice, not sure I'd argue that was "limited" thoughIn 2007, he had 1 game with less than 10 carries. He two games with 12 carries (one of which was 112 yards, not sure the number of carries matters in that case)

Again, I think you're being disingenuous here. Were his carries really limited due to injury against DET and SF who they creamed? Doubtful. He had 238 carries while sharing time with Taylor his rookie season... not sure how you argue that makes him an injury risk.

Again, only two missed games in two seasons. You can try to argue all you want about the rest, but he still a top-5 RB, and good value at ANY pick in the top-5.

 

[Judge Smails]

Children please

 

[Finless]

Adrian Peterson - Avoid at all costs

No that's not what I'm saying. I'm saying I don't like AP at his ADP... a lot different than "at all costs."

So you're okay with Turner at #3 but not with Peterson at #1.

Exactly.

I'd offer a wager but I'd have to have someone hold your money up front. Sorry brah, those are the rules.

 

[LHUCKS]

Of course I was disingenuous...I was making a point

New sig. Thanks.

please add the words "with facetiousness" at the end...tia.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

Well, let's see... in 2008, his minimum # of carries was 17, it happened twice, not sure I'd argue that was "limited" thoughIn 2007, he had 1 game with less than 10 carries. He two games with 12 carries (one of which was 112 yards, not sure the number of carries matters in that case)Again, I think you're being disingenuous here. Were his carries really limited due to injury against DET and SF who they creamed? Doubtful. He had 238 carries while sharing time with Taylor his rookie season... not sure how you argue that makes him an injury risk.Again, only two missed games in two seasons. You can try to argue all you want about the rest, but he still a top-5 RB, and good value at ANY pick in the top-5.

And one of the games where he only had 12 carries was the game vs Green Bay where the Vikings were winning at halftime, AP had over 100 yards rushing, and then they "pulled a Childress", refusing to run AP the rest of the game. Of course, MIN ended up losing the game.That said, if my memory is correct, after AP was injured in 2007 Childress talked about controlling his workload while he got back to full health. That worked well when the Vikings finished the year losing to Washington and Denver.

 

[LHUCKS]

busy at work...will be back tonight.

 

[Gambino]

You talk about your "leagues"...just how many does a fantasy god like your self enter?

 

[Bojang0301]

Can you please change Bernard Scott to red? I'm a big fan of his he deserves better than to be jinxed.

 

[cvnpoka]

How can someone be a "stay away" at 1.1 but then represent good value at 1.3 or 1.4? It's a matter of 2 or 3 picks. How can a player be overrated at his ADP if you have ABSOLUTELY NO CHANCE of landing him in any other draft slot?

bc lhucks projects someone else to do much better. its not that hard. if he projects mjd to have 350 fantasy points, and adrian to have 300, its a pretty huge mistake to take ap over mjd. its really not rocket science. argue that his projections are way off but dont disagree with the premise. fwiw, i think he is way off and adp should be easily be the best back due to his talent, offensive line, and improved passing game.

 

[cvnpoka]

We're talking two spots. That's a pretty low tolerance that LHUCKS has going... if he is basing his red and green on two spots, I'm hard pressed to see why there is a single player in black.

i have been tracking ffoc drafts that myself and my group of friends do. i have 41 drafts tracked and ap has gone first in 38 of them and 2nd the other 3 times. his adp is 1.08 with .27 standard deviation. never 3rd.for comparison turner and mjd are very close with approx adp of 1.6 and stnddev of 3.6. they have ranged from 2nd to tenth taken.in fact, as adp increases, so does stndev. what this means is that 2 spots early in the draft, is far different than 2 spots later.

 

[Native]

This was a good thread that has taken a bad turn due to needless bickering. Can we PLEASE get back on topic.

 

[LHUCKS]

How can someone be a "stay away" at 1.1 but then represent good value at 1.3 or 1.4? It's a matter of 2 or 3 picks. How can a player be overrated at his ADP if you have ABSOLUTELY NO CHANCE of landing him in any other draft slot?

bc lhucks projects someone else to do much better. its not that hard. if he projects mjd to have 350 fantasy points, and adrian to have 300, its a pretty huge mistake to take ap over mjd. its really not rocket science. argue that his projections are way off but dont disagree with the premise.

 

[thehornet]

How can someone be a "stay away" at 1.1 but then represent good value at 1.3 or 1.4? It's a matter of 2 or 3 picks. How can a player be overrated at his ADP if you have ABSOLUTELY NO CHANCE of landing him in any other draft slot?

bc lhucks projects someone else to do much better. its not that hard. if he projects mjd to have 350 fantasy points, and adrian to have 300, its a pretty huge mistake to take ap over mjd. its really not rocket science. argue that his projections are way off but dont disagree with the premise. fwiw, i think he is way off and adp should be easily be the best back due to his talent, offensive line, and improved passing game.

You dont understand. No worries.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Thanks for doing these LHUCKS. I sort of appreciate the format. It leads to some better discussion than someone just listing their rankings.

Now, if you can spend the next year without annoying the crap out of everybody with the Pac-10 and Americans are stupid schtick, I think these threads could be even better next September. TIA.

 

[LHUCKS]

Now, if you can spend the next year without annoying the crap out of everybody with the Pac-10 and Americans are stupid schtick, I think these threads could be even better next September. TIA.

Personally I think it's silly people can't check their emotions at the door for some good FF discussion, but that's just me.

 

[bocksheesh]

LHUCKS, you appear to be an Arizona Cardinals guy. I see Beanie Wells on your targeted list of RBs.

What is your presumably informed take on Wells? Does he takeover RB1 status in AZ or does it stay full RBBC? By which week will the takeover occur? How good, average, or bad do you think Wells will be as a legit RB2? And which round do you target Wells to insure you get him?

 

[LHUCKS]

LHUCKS, you appear to be an Arizona Cardinals guy. I see Beanie Wells on your targeted list of RBs.What is your presumably informed take on Wells? Does he takeover RB1 status in AZ or does it stay full RBBC? By which week will the takeover occur? How good, average, or bad do you think Wells will be as a legit RB2? And which round do you target Wells to insure you get him?

I think he looked like a young Shaun Alexander in the most recent preseason game. He's a more talented runner than Hightower.His upside justifies his ADP, but you don't want to put your fantasy team in a position where they have to rely on him...draft him at his ADP if the opportunity presents itself for the risk/reward is my official position.

 

[Knobs]

Might as well bump this one to go along with the wr and qb.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

This was a good thread too, other than getting derailed by the nonsensical debate switz had about AP's "red" label. Interesting, AP is the 3rd highest scoring RB in my league. (due to what is known as Childress syndrome)