What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

LJ worth the risk? (1 Viewer)

Double_J

Footballguy
I know there are a lot of LJ threads, but haven't seen too much discussion on whether or not he's worth the risk. If he holds out 10 games wouldn't that all but give you a death blow? I know everyone says you win your league in rounds 4-9, and that your first round pick doesn't matter. Doesn't it matter if he doesn't play the first 11 weeks? Supposedly the two sides aren't even close to a deal and haven't spoke in 2 months today. Who would you take over LJ at this point that might not have as high of a ceiling, but still won't lose your league for you?

 
at this point i would not draft LJ in 1st RD. Just act like he is off the board and select next best player. So basically your overpaying 1 spot in RD 2. Rather have Frank Gore / Willie Parker / Brian Westbrook / Shuan Alexander / Addai.

Not picking LJ will NOT lose a championship for you. The above guys put up good numbers.

Picking LJ and taking a Zero will kill you.

LJ does NOT = Championship. So do not shoot yourself in the foot.

 
at this point i would not draft LJ in 1st RD. Just act like he is off the board and select next best player. So basically your overpaying 1 spot in RD 2. Rather have Frank Gore / Willie Parker / Brian Westbrook / Shuan Alexander / Addai. Not picking LJ will NOT lose a championship for you. The above guys put up good numbers. Picking LJ and taking a Zero will kill you. LJ does NOT = Championship. So do not shoot yourself in the foot.
:lmao:
 
while i totally agree on not drafting LJ

Let me bring this up. Emmitt Smith heldout in a contract squabble in either 1993 and 1994. He missed the first two games but went on to have a monster year

 
Addai is not in that class, that almost seems silly to me.

If you feel you don't have a choice but to draft LJ, trade the pick. Don't let any pick in a draft make ya feel that way.

If there's no draft pick trades and ya feel stuck, there's a point 6? 7? 8? where you should probably take him and then plan to trade him away if you don't care for him on your FF team.

 
Addai is not in that class, that almost seems silly to me.If you feel you don't have a choice but to draft LJ, trade the pick. Don't let any pick in a draft make ya feel that way. If there's no draft pick trades and ya feel stuck, there's a point 6? 7? 8? where you should probably take him and then plan to trade him away if you don't care for him on your FF team.
Addai is as safe of a pick as there is imo. He's definitely the starter and he's also definitely going to have the opportunity to score a lot of points.
 
at this point i would not draft LJ in 1st RD. Just act like he is off the board and select next best player. So basically your overpaying 1 spot in RD 2. Rather have Frank Gore / Willie Parker / Brian Westbrook / Shuan Alexander / Addai.

Not picking LJ will NOT lose a championship for you. The above guys put up good numbers.

Picking LJ and taking a Zero will kill you.

LJ does NOT = Championship. So do not shoot yourself in the foot.
what? that makes no sense. First, Addai just lost Tarik Glenn, which is akin to Seattle losing Walter Jones. This most definitely will hurt his rushing totals. Secondly, Gore just broke a bone in his hand,he's out 1 month..that means no practice. Hard to be ready for opening day, when you've sat on you butt for the past month.His game-speed won't be there right away...he won't be a factor for ,say, 2-3 weeks into the season, abut the same time as LJ's holdout would last, in a worst case scenario. Gore is signicantly more risky to select than anyone else in the RB top 20..he's an injury-prone potato chip who can break at a moment's notice..

Thirdly, SA has a broken foot, and is on the wrong side of 30 ( will be 30 on Aug 30th)..he has a lot of mileage on those legs...

Brian Westbrook had a career year in 2006, and barely managed 1200 yards rushing. He's about as injury-prine as Gore is..Westy is more likely to fall back to the 700-Club in terms of rushing yards..yawn..that is , if he plays a full season..

FWP is a good RB, but is in a new offense, that promises to spread the ball around using 4-wide sets..

EVEN with all of the re-tooling the Chiefs did on that O-line last season, LJ still rushed for 1700+ and 17 tds!

Emmitt, as one poster mentioned, held out thru the first week or two of the reg season, but that dind't stop him for having a monster season.

LJ DOES = championship..Shooting yourself in the foot would be selecting Gore at #3 and watching him bounce in and out of games, on and off of the injury report , all season long. Shooting yourself in the foot would also be selecting Addai, a guy who's never been a featured back, rushing behind a line that isn't nearly as good as it was in the SB..

Alexander's foot is plenty of reason NOT to like him, oh , and the 1969 career carries , and the 200 career receptions, and the `hit-the-wall` age of 30..

Brian Westbrook is just as risky as Gore, if not moreso..Westy has not played a full 16 games in any season in his career.. before last season, from 2003-2005, he averaged a paltry 680 yards rushing per season. He's never scored more than 11 total TDS, at any point in his career..and, he can't stay healthy, neither can his QB. So, what becomes of Westy once McNabb goes down. Garcia is not around to bail the team out..

Chiefs are cheap, but they're NOT crazy..Herm needs his RB, like a 2-yr old needs a blanket..

something will get done before the season starts..Even if he gets traded, he'll probably lead the NFL in rushing.GB? good line. Dallas? loaded with offensive talent and a solid O-line..

you go ahead and take Glass-Man Frank Gore with the #3 pick, I'll stick with LJ. :goodposting:

 
I know there are a lot of LJ threads, but haven't seen too much discussion on whether or not he's worth the risk. If he holds out 10 games wouldn't that all but give you a death blow? I know everyone says you win your league in rounds 4-9, and that your first round pick doesn't matter. Doesn't it matter if he doesn't play the first 11 weeks? Supposedly the two sides aren't even close to a deal and haven't spoke in 2 months today. Who would you take over LJ at this point that might not have as high of a ceiling, but still won't lose your league for you?
While it is true that you don't win the league with your first rounder, you can most certainly lose it. Upside is great, but you have to balance the risks. If you think LJ will hold out (and/or you think Priest will play and get some carries), then you should do one of two things:

1. Trade down in the first round and then take the top RB left. If everyone passes on LJ, then you may consider takinig him as he still has value, but maybe not at 2-3. If not you get extra picks and a solid back with less downside (although not as much upside)

OR

2. Just take the next highest rated player on your board - skippinig LJ.

Of course it is just August. Its far too early to know what LJ is going to do, but at this point I would draft him in the top 5 still. IF camp goes a couple more weeks then he drops to 5-10.

 
Assuming this is a redraft league, I'd stay away. He may be worth the risk in the late 2nd or early 3rd round due to his upside.

In dynasty, I think you still have to take him. He's an elite talent that can carry a team on his back, realtively young, and has low mileage. Just as a reference, I have to choose between Gore & LJ in a keep 1 league. I was on the fence until Gore broke his hand, not because of the impact I think it'll have on his '07 season but because the dude just seems to get hurt too easily with '06 being the exception going back to his HS years. If he does hold out 10 games, at least you'd have a high pick next year to add another good young RB prospect!

 
at this point i would not draft LJ in 1st RD. Just act like he is off the board and select next best player. So basically your overpaying 1 spot in RD 2. Rather have Frank Gore / Willie Parker / Brian Westbrook / Shuan Alexander / Addai.

Not picking LJ will NOT lose a championship for you. The above guys put up good numbers.

Picking LJ and taking a Zero will kill you.

LJ does NOT = Championship. So do not shoot yourself in the foot.
what? that makes no sense. First, Addai just lost Tarik Glenn, which is akin to Seattle losing Walter Jones. This most definitely will hurt his rushing totals. Secondly, Gore just broke a bone in his hand,he's out 1 month..that means no practice. Hard to be ready for opening day, when you've sat on you butt for the past month.His game-speed won't be there right away...he won't be a factor for ,say, 2-3 weeks into the season, abut the same time as LJ's holdout would last, in a worst case scenario. Gore is signicantly more risky to select than anyone else in the RB top 20..he's an injury-prone potato chip who can break at a moment's notice..

Thirdly, SA has a broken foot, and is on the wrong side of 30 ( will be 30 on Aug 30th)..he has a lot of mileage on those legs...

Brian Westbrook had a career year in 2006, and barely managed 1200 yards rushing. He's about as injury-prine as Gore is..Westy is more likely to fall back to the 700-Club in terms of rushing yards..yawn..that is , if he plays a full season..

FWP is a good RB, but is in a new offense, that promises to spread the ball around using 4-wide sets..

EVEN with all of the re-tooling the Chiefs did on that O-line last season, LJ still rushed for 1700+ and 17 tds!

Emmitt, as one poster mentioned, held out thru the first week or two of the reg season, but that dind't stop him for having a monster season.

LJ DOES = championship..Shooting yourself in the foot would be selecting Gore at #3 and watching him bounce in and out of games, on and off of the injury report , all season long. Shooting yourself in the foot would also be selecting Addai, a guy who's never been a featured back, rushing behind a line that isn't nearly as good as it was in the SB..

Alexander's foot is plenty of reason NOT to like him, oh , and the 1969 career carries , and the 200 career receptions, and the `hit-the-wall` age of 30..

Brian Westbrook is just as risky as Gore, if not moreso..Westy has not played a full 16 games in any season in his career.. before last season, from 2003-2005, he averaged a paltry 680 yards rushing per season. He's never scored more than 11 total TDS, at any point in his career..and, he can't stay healthy, neither can his QB. So, what becomes of Westy once McNabb goes down. Garcia is not around to bail the team out..

Chiefs are cheap, but they're NOT crazy..Herm needs his RB, like a 2-yr old needs a blanket..

something will get done before the season starts..Even if he gets traded, he'll probably lead the NFL in rushing.GB? good line. Dallas? loaded with offensive talent and a solid O-line..

you go ahead and take Glass-Man Frank Gore with the #3 pick, I'll stick with LJ. :lmao:
:confused: There is whole lot of hand wringing going on in this thread. I think it is very unlikely LJ does not play this season and almost as unlikely he is not in the top 5 barring an injury.
 
at this point i would not draft LJ in 1st RD. Just act like he is off the board and select next best player. So basically your overpaying 1 spot in RD 2. Rather have Frank Gore / Willie Parker / Brian Westbrook / Shuan Alexander / Addai.

Not picking LJ will NOT lose a championship for you. The above guys put up good numbers.

Picking LJ and taking a Zero will kill you.

LJ does NOT = Championship. So do not shoot yourself in the foot.
what? that makes no sense. First, Addai just lost Tarik Glenn, which is akin to Seattle losing Walter Jones. This most definitely will hurt his rushing totals. Secondly, Gore just broke a bone in his hand,he's out 1 month..that means no practice. Hard to be ready for opening day, when you've sat on you butt for the past month.His game-speed won't be there right away...he won't be a factor for ,say, 2-3 weeks into the season, abut the same time as LJ's holdout would last, in a worst case scenario. Gore is signicantly more risky to select than anyone else in the RB top 20..he's an injury-prone potato chip who can break at a moment's notice..

Thirdly, SA has a broken foot, and is on the wrong side of 30 ( will be 30 on Aug 30th)..he has a lot of mileage on those legs...

Brian Westbrook had a career year in 2006, and barely managed 1200 yards rushing. He's about as injury-prine as Gore is..Westy is more likely to fall back to the 700-Club in terms of rushing yards..yawn..that is , if he plays a full season..

FWP is a good RB, but is in a new offense, that promises to spread the ball around using 4-wide sets..

EVEN with all of the re-tooling the Chiefs did on that O-line last season, LJ still rushed for 1700+ and 17 tds!

Emmitt, as one poster mentioned, held out thru the first week or two of the reg season, but that dind't stop him for having a monster season.

LJ DOES = championship..Shooting yourself in the foot would be selecting Gore at #3 and watching him bounce in and out of games, on and off of the injury report , all season long. Shooting yourself in the foot would also be selecting Addai, a guy who's never been a featured back, rushing behind a line that isn't nearly as good as it was in the SB..

Alexander's foot is plenty of reason NOT to like him, oh , and the 1969 career carries , and the 200 career receptions, and the `hit-the-wall` age of 30..

Brian Westbrook is just as risky as Gore, if not moreso..Westy has not played a full 16 games in any season in his career.. before last season, from 2003-2005, he averaged a paltry 680 yards rushing per season. He's never scored more than 11 total TDS, at any point in his career..and, he can't stay healthy, neither can his QB. So, what becomes of Westy once McNabb goes down. Garcia is not around to bail the team out..

Chiefs are cheap, but they're NOT crazy..Herm needs his RB, like a 2-yr old needs a blanket..

something will get done before the season starts..Even if he gets traded, he'll probably lead the NFL in rushing.GB? good line. Dallas? loaded with offensive talent and a solid O-line..

you go ahead and take Glass-Man Frank Gore with the #3 pick, I'll stick with LJ. :(
:( There is whole lot of hand wringing going on in this thread. I think it is very unlikely LJ does not play this season and almost as unlikely he is not in the top 5 barring an injury.
If the line is even worse without Shields, why is it implausible to think he'll fall outside the top 5? The days of Chief backs going untouched for 4-5 yards are over..He was stuffed so many times at the line of scrimmage last year it wasn't funny. It'll happen a lot more this year.
 
Addai is not in that class, that almost seems silly to me.If you feel you don't have a choice but to draft LJ, trade the pick. Don't let any pick in a draft make ya feel that way. If there's no draft pick trades and ya feel stuck, there's a point 6? 7? 8? where you should probably take him and then plan to trade him away if you don't care for him on your FF team.
I'd take Addai over LJ this year in any format...
 
:rant: Im picking third on sat - addai, bush, parker all kept - Trying to get some justification as to why i dont take SA or Westy over LJ. Keep this thread rolling/ bumped..
 
LJ and the Chiefs are playing a game of chicken basically. First one to flinch loses. LJ stands to lose money and the Chiefs stand to lose a stud RB. Peterson puffing up his other running backs is crazy talk, when the days over Peterson goes to bed without a RB1 locked in and I'm sure it bothers him. Weirder things have happened but I seriously doubt LJ is out more than 2 games MAX, there's just too much for both sides to lose.

 
I'd stay away from him. Holdout + 400 carries + Herm = Appetite for Destruction
How is Herm a detriment to the running game? Curtis Martin sure didn't seem to suffer with him as coach, and LJ's first year with Herm was spectacular.
 
Addai is not in that class, that almost seems silly to me.If you feel you don't have a choice but to draft LJ, trade the pick. Don't let any pick in a draft make ya feel that way. If there's no draft pick trades and ya feel stuck, there's a point 6? 7? 8? where you should probably take him and then plan to trade him away if you don't care for him on your FF team.
I'd take Addai over LJ this year in any format...
too bad we're not in the same league then :lmao:
 
Addai is not in that class, that almost seems silly to me.If you feel you don't have a choice but to draft LJ, trade the pick. Don't let any pick in a draft make ya feel that way. If there's no draft pick trades and ya feel stuck, there's a point 6? 7? 8? where you should probably take him and then plan to trade him away if you don't care for him on your FF team.
I'd take Addai over LJ this year in any format...
too bad we're not in the same league then ;)
:confused: I'd gladly take LJ 3rd or lower. Amazing how 'underrated' he is with some posters. If he returns his season can't be much worse as the last. Maybe fantasy-wise his #'s will be down due to less carries, but we're talking the centerpiece of an offense, goal-line back, above-average pass catcher and POWERFUL runner with speed. I don't like the guy as a person, but barring injury, he's easily top 5 by season's end.
 
I'm pretty surprised at the optimism of a lot of the LJ supporters. I really just don't see him budging on this. He knws how much he has been run into the ground the past 2 years. He knows how hard it is for RBs who are too close to 30 to get "paid." He knows he is the best player in KC hands down. I just don't see a whole lot of reason for him to back down and I have very little faith that KC brass will either. I could be wrong, but this just looks ugly.

 
Unless there is a change in the situation, I am not drafting LJ. I believe 100% that he would be willing to sit-out the entire year.

 
Addai is not in that class, that almost seems silly to me.If you feel you don't have a choice but to draft LJ, trade the pick. Don't let any pick in a draft make ya feel that way. If there's no draft pick trades and ya feel stuck, there's a point 6? 7? 8? where you should probably take him and then plan to trade him away if you don't care for him on your FF team.
I'd take Addai over LJ this year in any format...
too bad we're not in the same league then :lmao:
:lmao: I'd gladly take LJ 3rd or lower. Amazing how 'underrated' he is with some posters. If he returns his season can't be much worse as the last. Maybe fantasy-wise his #'s will be down due to less carries, but we're talking the centerpiece of an offense, goal-line back, above-average pass catcher and POWERFUL runner with speed. I don't like the guy as a person, but barring injury, he's easily top 5 by season's end.
Wow, it amazes me that people simply look at the player and do not factor in situation at all.... Ok, lets take a full look shall we... 2 straight years of 400+ carries, a team in decline especially at offensive line, an inexperienced qb with no receivers to throw to, and a holdout... Sounds like quite a bargain at #3... Now lets look at Addai... The unquestioned rb 1 on the best offense in the league on a team that will be committed to the run due to a declining defense... Due to key losses on the defensive side of the ball the colts will either run more to keep them off the field or participate in shootouts... either will be beneficial to Addai... Addai will also consistently face six men in the box while LJ faces 8 or even 9... Thanks but i'll take Addai every day of the week... Good luck with Johnson.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Addai is not in that class, that almost seems silly to me.If you feel you don't have a choice but to draft LJ, trade the pick. Don't let any pick in a draft make ya feel that way. If there's no draft pick trades and ya feel stuck, there's a point 6? 7? 8? where you should probably take him and then plan to trade him away if you don't care for him on your FF team.
I'd take Addai over LJ this year in any format...
too bad we're not in the same league then :lmao:
:lmao: I'd gladly take LJ 3rd or lower. Amazing how 'underrated' he is with some posters. If he returns his season can't be much worse as the last. Maybe fantasy-wise his #'s will be down due to less carries, but we're talking the centerpiece of an offense, goal-line back, above-average pass catcher and POWERFUL runner with speed. I don't like the guy as a person, but barring injury, he's easily top 5 by season's end.
Wow, it amazes me that people simply look at the player and do not factor in situation at all.... Ok, lets take a full look shall we... 2 straight years of 400+ carries, a team in decline especially at offensive line, an inexperienced qb with no receivers to throw to, and a holdout... Sounds like quite a bargain at #3... Now lets look at Addai... The unquestioned rb 1 on the best offense in the league on a team that will be committed to the run due to a declining defense... Due to key losses on the defensive side of the ball the colts will either run more to keep them off the field or participate in shootouts... either will be beneficial to Addai... Addai will also consistently face six men in the box while LJ faces 8 or even 9... Thanks but i'll take Addai every day of the week... Good luck with Johnson.
As of right now, I'm keeping Addai over LJ so you're not the only one thinking this way. Just wish my draft wasn't this Sunday, but it's a tradition to do it the day of the Hall of Fame game.
 
Double_J said:
Wally Cleaver said:
One said:
Bri said:
Wally Cleaver said:
Addai is not in that class, that almost seems silly to me.If you feel you don't have a choice but to draft LJ, trade the pick. Don't let any pick in a draft make ya feel that way. If there's no draft pick trades and ya feel stuck, there's a point 6? 7? 8? where you should probably take him and then plan to trade him away if you don't care for him on your FF team.
I'd take Addai over LJ this year in any format...
too bad we're not in the same league then :)
:no: I'd gladly take LJ 3rd or lower. Amazing how 'underrated' he is with some posters. If he returns his season can't be much worse as the last. Maybe fantasy-wise his #'s will be down due to less carries, but we're talking the centerpiece of an offense, goal-line back, above-average pass catcher and POWERFUL runner with speed. I don't like the guy as a person, but barring injury, he's easily top 5 by season's end.
Wow, it amazes me that people simply look at the player and do not factor in situation at all.... Ok, lets take a full look shall we... 2 straight years of 400+ carries, a team in decline especially at offensive line, an inexperienced qb with no receivers to throw to, and a holdout... Sounds like quite a bargain at #3... Now lets look at Addai... The unquestioned rb 1 on the best offense in the league on a team that will be committed to the run due to a declining defense... Due to key losses on the defensive side of the ball the colts will either run more to keep them off the field or participate in shootouts... either will be beneficial to Addai... Addai will also consistently face six men in the box while LJ faces 8 or even 9... Thanks but i'll take Addai every day of the week... Good luck with Johnson.
As of right now, I'm keeping Addai over LJ so you're not the only one thinking this way. Just wish my draft wasn't this Sunday, but it's a tradition to do it the day of the Hall of Fame game.
I have this same decision Addai or LJ in a keeper league. Now admittedly Addai is younger, but I kind of feel he may be overvalued this year. Definitely a 1st round player but top 5? There are alot of options in Indy. Couple that with the fact that Manning loves to call his own number at the goalline, and a schedule that is ranked 3rd toughest vs. the run. Addai also has not carried the full load before and is somewhat of an unknown in that capacity. I will admit I think Addai is probably one of the safer rb picks, but I don't know if his ceiling is as high as some on here are expecting. I would assume he would top out at 1700-1800 combined and 14 td's. Good numbers absolutely if he hits his ceiling. Now LJ does have some question marks and issues, but even if his production drops 40% he will still have 1450 and 11 td's.
 
Wally Cleaver said:
Wow, it amazes me that people simply look at the player and do not factor in situation at all.... Ok, lets take a full look shall we... 2 straight years of 400+ carries, a team in decline especially at offensive line, an inexperienced qb with no receivers to throw to, and a holdout... Sounds like quite a bargain at #3...

Now lets look at Addai... The unquestioned rb 1 on the best offense in the league on a team that will be committed to the run due to a declining defense... Due to key losses on the defensive side of the ball the colts will either run more to keep them off the field or participate in shootouts... either will be beneficial to Addai... Addai will also consistently face six men in the box while LJ faces 8 or even 9... Thanks but i'll take Addai every day of the week... Good luck with Johnson.
2 straight years of 400+ carries? No, Johnson had 336 carries in 2005.team in decline, especially at offensive line? Well, they made the playoffs last year. Despite losing their starting QB on opening day. And yes, they've lost pro Bowl linemen the last two years, but last year they were ninth in rushing offense, and Johnson got every single one of their rushing TDs.

an inexperienced QB with no receivers to throw to? Johnson did fine with Huard at QB last year - Huard actually was the second ranked QB in efficiency last year, behind only that Manning guy. And an efficient QB is usually a godsend to a running game - you don't want a QB that throws for all the yards and gets all the TDs, you want a guy who sets up your stud RB. And KC added Bowe for this year, a possible upgrade at receiver. Bottom line, Huard has another year of experience, they added a good WR, and that situation didn't hurt Johnson a lick last year.

and a holdout? And the last running back to miss games in the regular season due to a holdout was...?

Not saying you can't make an argument for Addai being less risky than Johnson. But if you're going to downgrade Johnson I need better reasons than that.

 
I know there are a lot of LJ threads, but haven't seen too much discussion on whether or not he's worth the risk. If he holds out 10 games wouldn't that all but give you a death blow? I know everyone says you win your league in rounds 4-9, and that your first round pick doesn't matter. Doesn't it matter if he doesn't play the first 11 weeks? Supposedly the two sides aren't even close to a deal and haven't spoke in 2 months today. Who would you take over LJ at this point that might not have as high of a ceiling, but still won't lose your league for you?
Risky? yeah. But Are you going to let the 2nd best RB in the league fall past you *just in case* he holds out? Maybe they will trade him. Maybe he will reach a deal. Maybe he holds out only 1 game. Who else are you going to take in his place? Gore has huge risk due to injury. Alexander may never be the same. Addai hasnt proved much yet. Westy is a huge injury risk also. Parker may lose goal line carries. Rudi's YPC is slipping. Maroney has a bum shoulder (maybe). Henry is playing under the devil who will probably move him to 3rd string in a week.EVERY RB AFTER LT AND SJAX ARE HUGE RISKS :yucky:
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Wally Cleaver said:
Wow, it amazes me that people simply look at the player and do not factor in situation at all.... Ok, lets take a full look shall we... 2 straight years of 400+ carries, a team in decline especially at offensive line, an inexperienced qb with no receivers to throw to, and a holdout... Sounds like quite a bargain at #3...
this is starting to remind me of that movie The Best of Times, where Kurt Russell is the former star high school QB and Robin Williams is the 4th string schmuck that dropped the winning TD.Russell talks about the legend of his game against Porterfield High where he through 3 TD passes, but every year the legend gets taller and he throws more, it was up to 6 TDs at last take. Next year it will be 7.

With every one of these LJ discussions leading up to the season, he somehow gets older, he accumulates more carries in the past, his offensive line keeps getting worse, and Herm loses more IQ points

By opening weekend, LJ will be 62 years old, will have had 500+ carries the last 5 years straight, and will be running behind the board of directors for the AARP.

That said, the holdout worries me. If there's no movement by next week I'll start to drop him in the rankings.

 
95% of the holdouts will be settled before the regualr season starts so i don't like to get too worked up about them. With that said, the real question is how far do you let JL slide? If I have a choice of Willie Parker/Frank Gore or LJ who is holding out and it is a redraft league I probably pass on LJ. As others have said, if he does hold out several games you may have killed your season with that pick. The real question is how far do you slide him on your draft board? Some have been saying late 2nd or early 3rd. I would seriously doubt he would slide out of round 1. I would probably drop LJ 3 or 4 spots max. at this point.

 
This holdout makes me sad, but not in the way you'd think.

I didn't have LJ in my top 5 even before this, and was hoping guys would take him #2/3. That ain't happening now, it looks like...

And Addai = gold, simply because Colts system = gold. According to FO's stats, he was on the same level of efficiency last year as Edge in his prime. And he will get a full workload AND be very involved in the passing game. One more minor boost: He has legitimate big-play ability, which Edge lost after the torn ACL. I have him in the same group with Jackson & Gore, and he almost always goes the latest/cheapest of those three.

Tarik Glenn is an interesting concern, but:

1. He was in the decline phase of his career anyway. A loss, still, but not AS bad as you may think.

2. The left tackle affects the passing game much more than the run. And with Peyton Manning, even that effect will be smaller than usual.

LJ losing Will Shields will hurt more than Addai losing Glenn. Think Steve Hutchinson...

-Josh

 
Wally Cleaver said:
Wow, it amazes me that people simply look at the player and do not factor in situation at all.... Ok, lets take a full look shall we... 2 straight years of 400+ carries, a team in decline especially at offensive line, an inexperienced qb with no receivers to throw to, and a holdout... Sounds like quite a bargain at #3...

Now lets look at Addai... The unquestioned rb 1 on the best offense in the league on a team that will be committed to the run due to a declining defense... Due to key losses on the defensive side of the ball the colts will either run more to keep them off the field or participate in shootouts... either will be beneficial to Addai... Addai will also consistently face six men in the box while LJ faces 8 or even 9... Thanks but i'll take Addai every day of the week... Good luck with Johnson.
2 straight years of 400+ carries? No, Johnson had 336 carries in 2005.team in decline, especially at offensive line? Well, they made the playoffs last year. Despite losing their starting QB on opening day. And yes, they've lost pro Bowl linemen the last two years, but last year they were ninth in rushing offense, and Johnson got every single one of their rushing TDs.

an inexperienced QB with no receivers to throw to? Johnson did fine with Huard at QB last year - Huard actually was the second ranked QB in efficiency last year, behind only that Manning guy. And an efficient QB is usually a godsend to a running game - you don't want a QB that throws for all the yards and gets all the TDs, you want a guy who sets up your stud RB. And KC added Bowe for this year, a possible upgrade at receiver. Bottom line, Huard has another year of experience, they added a good WR, and that situation didn't hurt Johnson a lick last year.

and a holdout? And the last running back to miss games in the regular season due to a holdout was...?

Not saying you can't make an argument for Addai being less risky than Johnson. But if you're going to downgrade Johnson I need better reasons than that.
Most people on these boards want to hear stats and I fully admit I messed up on the carries from the past two years... (not sure where I got that from) but here is my main reasoning for why I would absolutely not take LJ this year... I watched his last 4 games of last year over again and he looked markedly slower than he has in the past... The explosion and burst that made him so elite was gone and he was a bit of a plodder compared to earlier versions of LJ... This is not to say that he is not an amazing back, but the workload is taking its toll... His O-Line is not as good, and the offense in general is in decline IMO... couple that with a holdout and he is not a top 5 pick to me, mainly because of the eye test... He did not pass it at the end of last season.
 
Wally Cleaver said:
Wow, it amazes me that people simply look at the player and do not factor in situation at all.... Ok, lets take a full look shall we... 2 straight years of 400+ carries, a team in decline especially at offensive line, an inexperienced qb with no receivers to throw to, and a holdout... Sounds like quite a bargain at #3... Now lets look at Addai... The unquestioned rb 1 on the best offense in the league on a team that will be committed to the run due to a declining defense... Due to key losses on the defensive side of the ball the colts will either run more to keep them off the field or participate in shootouts... either will be beneficial to Addai... Addai will also consistently face six men in the box while LJ faces 8 or even 9... Thanks but i'll take Addai every day of the week... Good luck with Johnson.
Wow that's some real sugarcoating there.A RB with two awesome seasons(one amongst "best of" all time) compared with someone that shared time in 06 and never really was "the guy".I'd bet $ your projections are unrealistic. How Edge did is somewhat irrelevant as he had some of the best rush/rec #s ever!Now we're up to our second "best of" comparisonThis part time turned full time RB is going to put up "best of" numbers...cmon now. Very good #s should suffice. He's not Faulk, he's not Edge, heck he's not Westbrook or Tiki, let him play full time first before you put him on a pedestal.Re-offenses-What you missed was Colts O is built for and around Manning. Chiefs O is built for and around LJ. Re-defense, cmon now, when did the Colts have a D worth jabberring about? They've always had to outscore opponents. Yeah they had a great stretch run on D last year but outside of that they've been the same Colts D year in year out.Oh yeah and Addai will be useless to you tuesday thru friday :goodposting:
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Wally Cleaver said:
Wow, it amazes me that people simply look at the player and do not factor in situation at all.... Ok, lets take a full look shall we... 2 straight years of 400+ carries, a team in decline especially at offensive line, an inexperienced qb with no receivers to throw to, and a holdout... Sounds like quite a bargain at #3... Now lets look at Addai... The unquestioned rb 1 on the best offense in the league on a team that will be committed to the run due to a declining defense... Due to key losses on the defensive side of the ball the colts will either run more to keep them off the field or participate in shootouts... either will be beneficial to Addai... Addai will also consistently face six men in the box while LJ faces 8 or even 9... Thanks but i'll take Addai every day of the week... Good luck with Johnson.
Wow that's some real sugarcoating there.A RB with two awesome seasons(one amongst "best of" all time) compared with someone that shared time in 06 and never really was "the guy".I'd bet $ your projections are unrealistic. How Edge did is somewhat irrelevant as he had some of the best rush/rec #s ever!Now we're up to our second "best of" comparisonThis part time turned full time RB is going to put up "best of" numbers...cmon now. Very good #s should suffice. He's not Faulk, he's not Edge, heck he's not Westbrook or Tiki, let him play full time first before you put him on a pedestal.Re-offenses-What you missed was Colts O is built for and around Manning. Chiefs O is built for and around LJ. Re-defense, cmon now, when did the Colts have a D worth jabberring about? They've always had to outscore opponents. Yeah they had a great stretch run on D last year but outside of that they've been the same Colts D year in year out.Oh yeah and Addai will be useless to you tuesday thru friday :rolleyes:
I think you are getting the impression that I am saying Addai is a better runningback than LJ, and I have no idea why you are comparing Addai to Faulk, Edge or Westbrook..... I am clearly not saying this.. I am simply saying that I like Addai's situation remarkedly more than I do LJ this year and I believe he will finish with more fantasy points this season... This is not a "who's the most talented back" question or "All time runningback" question... It is who is more likely to score more points this year, and in my mind, barring injury, it is Addai. I remember Nick Goings having an absolutely huge second half and carrying fantasy teams because he found himself in a great situation... You dont have to be an elite back to put up elite fantasy points!!!!
 
Last edited by a moderator:
If he's still holding out when you draft it'd be tough to take him in the top half of the 1st round.

He could be a steal in the 2nd half of the 1st round if he slips. You of course would need to secure a solid #2 back AND cover your ### with Holmes and Bennett (adjust your drafting accordingly) or start your draft with 3 rbs (something I do sometimes anyways). I think he ends up playing at some point this year - if you get him cheap enough and he only misses a few games you could do very well.

 
If he's still holding out when you draft it'd be tough to take him in the top half of the 1st round.

He could be a steal in the 2nd half of the 1st round if he slips. You of course would need to secure a solid #2 back AND cover your ### with Holmes and Bennett (adjust your drafting accordingly) or start your draft with 3 rbs (something I do sometimes anyways). I think he ends up playing at some point this year - if you get him cheap enough and he only misses a few games you could do very well.
my thoughts also, it would be nice to hear they were close or at least making progress in the next couple weeks.
 
I dont have any stats on this, but no one has mentioned the increased injury risk with a hold out. Johnson's workload has been enormous the past two years, and yes, he's not as old and beat up as guys that have had 300+ carries over a 4, 5, or 6 year span, but his workload the past two years has to at least make injury a minor concern, and now couple that with the fact that he's going to get thrown in the snake pit without going through a proper preseason??? Yes, Emmitt Smith was a similar style back and was successful after holding out for two games, but that was in one of the best offenses ever, or at least behind one of the best O-Lines ever. I dont think i'll be taking LJ because of the fact that he's a guy who thrives off of 30+ touches a game, so if/when he signs (assuming after training camp, say, week 1), he's literally going to go from 0 to 60 in about 4.3 seconds, that can't be good for his health.

 
at this point i would not draft LJ in 1st RD. Just act like he is off the board and select next best player. So basically your overpaying 1 spot in RD 2. Rather have Frank Gore / Willie Parker / Brian Westbrook / Shuan Alexander / Addai.

Not picking LJ will NOT lose a championship for you. The above guys put up good numbers.

Picking LJ and taking a Zero will kill you.

LJ does NOT = Championship. So do not shoot yourself in the foot.
what? that makes no sense. First, Addai just lost Tarik Glenn, which is akin to Seattle losing Walter Jones. This most definitely will hurt his rushing totals. Secondly, Gore just broke a bone in his hand,he's out 1 month..that means no practice. Hard to be ready for opening day, when you've sat on you butt for the past month.His game-speed won't be there right away...he won't be a factor for ,say, 2-3 weeks into the season, abut the same time as LJ's holdout would last, in a worst case scenario. Gore is signicantly more risky to select than anyone else in the RB top 20..he's an injury-prone potato chip who can break at a moment's notice..

Thirdly, SA has a broken foot, and is on the wrong side of 30 ( will be 30 on Aug 30th)..he has a lot of mileage on those legs...

Brian Westbrook had a career year in 2006, and barely managed 1200 yards rushing. He's about as injury-prine as Gore is..Westy is more likely to fall back to the 700-Club in terms of rushing yards..yawn..that is , if he plays a full season..

FWP is a good RB, but is in a new offense, that promises to spread the ball around using 4-wide sets..

EVEN with all of the re-tooling the Chiefs did on that O-line last season, LJ still rushed for 1700+ and 17 tds!

Emmitt, as one poster mentioned, held out thru the first week or two of the reg season, but that dind't stop him for having a monster season.

LJ DOES = championship..Shooting yourself in the foot would be selecting Gore at #3 and watching him bounce in and out of games, on and off of the injury report , all season long. Shooting yourself in the foot would also be selecting Addai, a guy who's never been a featured back, rushing behind a line that isn't nearly as good as it was in the SB..

Alexander's foot is plenty of reason NOT to like him, oh , and the 1969 career carries , and the 200 career receptions, and the `hit-the-wall` age of 30..

Brian Westbrook is just as risky as Gore, if not moreso..Westy has not played a full 16 games in any season in his career.. before last season, from 2003-2005, he averaged a paltry 680 yards rushing per season. He's never scored more than 11 total TDS, at any point in his career..and, he can't stay healthy, neither can his QB. So, what becomes of Westy once McNabb goes down. Garcia is not around to bail the team out..

Chiefs are cheap, but they're NOT crazy..Herm needs his RB, like a 2-yr old needs a blanket..

something will get done before the season starts..Even if he gets traded, he'll probably lead the NFL in rushing.GB? good line. Dallas? loaded with offensive talent and a solid O-line..

you go ahead and take Glass-Man Frank Gore with the #3 pick, I'll stick with LJ. :lmao:
Great post. How 'bout your thoughts on Henry in this mix?
 
Have I missed something? Has anything been announced on this situation? Have they gotten any closer on a deal or are they still worlds apart?

 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top