In my opinion, there were some items that look like ongoing trends to me that upset some standard FF strategies this year.
First, the increasing use of RB duos in the league significantly decreased the number of reliable, week in and week out stud RBs. Adrian Peterson had some monster games, but also had some very poor games and was in a 2-headed attack with Chester Taylor. Fred Taylor had a renaissance season, but the split of work with MJD made him less-than-stellar as a FF back. In general, FF backs generated less total points than you'd expect in years' past. Julius Jones drained off enough carries and yards to drag on Marion Barbers' fantasy value - and so forth. I don't see this trend to RB tandems slowing in coming years - it seems to be becoming standard operating practice for NFL clubs.
On the flip side, the Stud WRs (Moss, Owens, Edwards, Wayne, Andre Johnson, Fitzgerald, Houshmandzadeh) are emerging as a very consistent supplier of FP week in and week out. This is due, at least in part in my opinion, to the rules changes/increased emphasis on rule enforcement by the refs that have been added over the past several years to stop excessive DB contact with WRs after 5 yards from the line of scrimmage; the anti-horse-collar rule that keeps WRs from being dragged down from behind, and etc. To put it simply, the league wanted more passing, more big pass plays - and now they've achieved that end. So, stud WRs are getting a lot of balls and there is just more concentrated passing to the top NFL targets than in years past, IMO. This year, there were
6 guys with 100 or more catches, and 14 with 90 or more catches (one was a RB, Brian Westbrook, and one was a TE, Jason Witten). Further, 23 players had 1000 or more yards to their credit, and 30 had 920 or more. Passing is becoming more predominant (I think) and, from the FF perspective, the top targets are either 1). getting a more concentrated dosage of targets or 2). managing to complete more receptions or 3). some mixture of both the first two factors. (at least that's how it looks to me at first blush when I look at 2007 receiving stats. I'll ask Dr. Drinen to query the DB and see if my initial read on the season-ending stats is supported by a trend analysis).
In short, the stud WRs are increasing in relative value compared to the RBs due to the increasing trend to two-headed rushing stables, in my opinion. Speaking of my anecdotal experiences this year, I was most successful this year in leagues in which the draft played out to provide 1 solid-to-studly RB and 2-3 stud WRs to my roster - I was high on Dwayne Bowe in a lot of leagues and late-round picks of him or early waiver pick ups of him also greatly assisted my lineups this year.
Also, the increased emphasis on handling brain traumas/concussions in a medically appropriate manner has increased the number of weeks such injuries leave a player on the inactive list, in my opinion. This is not a bad thing from a player-health perspective, but has increased the risk that injuries will cost fantasy owners multiple weeks off for their draft picks. Concussion susceptibility/history will be an item I pay more attention to when doing my qualitative analysis of draft prospects for the 2008 season at all positions.
Just some of my initial reactions to the regular season just completed.
I over-stated myself a little bit, but I do think that WR numbers are more likely to stay high then return to what we might think of as statistical "norms". IE: This year may be an outlier, but probably not as much of one as some think right now.
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