Looking ahead at future schedules (1 Viewer)

[Rick James]

IMO, it's not of much value to know that so-and-so has a tough playoff schedule as of August 24th. There is absolutely no way of knowing who is going to have a good defense 4 months from now.

Whenever I see a post that mentions Eli Manning (or whoever) having a tough playoff schedule, I just skip right over it because it doesn't help me.

How much credence to you put into a player's strength of schedule, in particular his playoff schedule, when drafting?

 

[JbizzleMan]

I don't pay much attention to it. Maybe in the later rounds when I have to decide between two sleepers, I'll go with the guy who appears to have an easier playoff schedule. Thats still very rare for me.

 

[zoobird]

I don't pay much attention to it. Maybe in the later rounds when I have to decide between two sleepers, I'll go with the guy who appears to have an easier playoff schedule. Thats still very rare for me.

I'd actually say the exact opposite. Deciding between two sleepers ultimately comes down to who you think is going to get an opportunity and seize it. The only place where I'd take the playoff schedule into account is when evaluating the relatively 'sure things'.

 

[Grahamburn]

I see guys say "schedule doesn't matter" during the offseason all the time, and then as soon as the games start, what does everyone talk about? Matchups.

 

[Polish Hammer]

I see guys say "schedule doesn't matter" during the offseason all the time, and then as soon as the games start, what does everyone talk about? Matchups.

I completely agree. However, I think the OP means that we don't know who the toughest/easiest matchups for weeks 14-16 are going to be right now. He feels there are going to be some top D's that disappoint and some lower ranked ones that surprise with better performance. Therefore, you shouldn't take someone NOW based on an unknown in the future. I'm not saying I completely agree, but I completely see his point.

 

[hook014]

I see guys say "schedule doesn't matter" during the offseason all the time, and then as soon as the games start, what does everyone talk about? Matchups.

I completely agree. However, I think the OP means that we don't know who the toughest/easiest matchups for weeks 14-16 are going to be right now. He feels there are going to be some top D's that disappoint and some lower ranked ones that surprise with better performance. Therefore, you shouldn't take someone NOW based on an unknown in the future. I'm not saying I completely agree, but I completely see his point.

49ers wks 14-16 Sea, @Sdc, @Stl

Chi wks 14-16 Ne, @Min, NYJ

Instead of talking in generalities let's get specific. Which of these two scheds do you want to face in the FF playoffs?

Do you guys really believe that you can't forecast this with some certainty?

 

[Rick James]

I see guys say "schedule doesn't matter" during the offseason all the time, and then as soon as the games start, what does everyone talk about? Matchups.

I completely agree. However, I think the OP means that we don't know who the toughest/easiest matchups for weeks 14-16 are going to be right now. He feels there are going to be some top D's that disappoint and some lower ranked ones that surprise with better performance. Therefore, you shouldn't take someone NOW based on an unknown in the future. I'm not saying I completely agree, but I completely see his point.

49ers wks 14-16 Sea, @Sdc, @Stl

Chi wks 14-16 Ne, @Min, NYJ

Instead of talking in generalities let's get specific. Which of these two scheds do you want to face in the FF playoffs?

Do you guys really believe that you can't forecast this with some certainty?

No, I don't think you can.Last year Aaron Rodgers had a playoff schedule of:

14- chicago-bad defense, but Rodgers didn't do anything

15- pittsburgh- had a top 10 defense, Rodgers put up about 45 points

16- seattle-bad defense, Rodgers was solid

Anyway, it always comes down to the players. In your example, it would matter who you're comparing. If you're asking me if I'd rather start Alex Smith or Jay Cutler, I'm taking Jay Cutler hands down at this point in time.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

I expect to be in the playoffs so I definately take a look...

I love Kolb but hate 14-16

B Marsh will be on Revis island week 14.......

Rivers and SD players look good

so does Alex Smith and SF

Cutler's is brutal.....

you know some things, not everything, but some things....if you expect to make the playoffs, which you should, you should always loook ahead, and it may not change who you draft, but you should start preparing ahead of time....

B Marsh may help you get to the playoffs, but you need to know he may not help you AT ALL week 14.......stuff like that

 

[da_budman]

I see guys say "schedule doesn't matter" during the offseason all the time, and then as soon as the games start, what does everyone talk about? Matchups.

I completely agree. However, I think the OP means that we don't know who the toughest/easiest matchups for weeks 14-16 are going to be right now. He feels there are going to be some top D's that disappoint and some lower ranked ones that surprise with better performance. Therefore, you shouldn't take someone NOW based on an unknown in the future. I'm not saying I completely agree, but I completely see his point.

49ers wks 14-16 Sea, @Sdc, @Stl

Chi wks 14-16 Ne, @Min, NYJ

Instead of talking in generalities let's get specific. Which of these two scheds do you want to face in the FF playoffs?

Do you guys really believe that you can't forecast this with some certainty?

And even if a defense you thought would be strong ends up being weak for whatever reason ( and vice versa) how is that any different than any other predictions we make in this game to try to get an edge? I know the turnover in the top 10 position players is pretty sizeable from year to year. Does that mean we should just give up on projections and rankings because it is all a crapshoot? I would be interested to see how the top 10 defenses differed from year to year, as well as how the top 10 defensive predictions were off year to year. I would bet in both cases prrdicting who is going to have good and bad defenses is no less accurate and even more so than position players. Would be pretty easy to check out and unless defenses show to be as unpredictable as some people think, why give up the advantage of paying attention to that over the average joe drafter? With the move away from magazines to the information found on the internet it is one of the few things left out there not spelled out very well that can give you an advantage.

 

[latrops]

I expect to be in the playoffs so I definately take a look...

I love Kolb but hate 14-16

Hate? Dallas, Minnesota, and NYG were all middle of the pack pass defenses last year. I don't mind projecting that they are all better this season, but it doesn't seem that bad a playoff schedule.

 

[Insein]

Definite unknown. The top ADP defense of the last 5 years only once finished in the top 10 for the season. There will be suprises each way. We will know the good defenses and matchups by week 4 or 5 usually. Thats when you start to wheel and deal to get the playoff lineup you desire.

 

[RalphMouth]

look at San Diego's first six games & tell me you aren't intrigued-

 

[hook014]

I see guys say "schedule doesn't matter" during the offseason all the time, and then as soon as the games start, what does everyone talk about? Matchups.

I completely agree. However, I think the OP means that we don't know who the toughest/easiest matchups for weeks 14-16 are going to be right now. He feels there are going to be some top D's that disappoint and some lower ranked ones that surprise with better performance. Therefore, you shouldn't take someone NOW based on an unknown in the future. I'm not saying I completely agree, but I completely see his point.

49ers wks 14-16 Sea, @Sdc, @Stl

Chi wks 14-16 Ne, @Min, NYJ

Instead of talking in generalities let's get specific. Which of these two scheds do you want to face in the FF playoffs?

Do you guys really believe that you can't forecast this with some certainty?

No, I don't think you can.Last year Aaron Rodgers had a playoff schedule of:

14- chicago-bad defense, but Rodgers didn't do anything

15- pittsburgh- had a top 10 defense, Rodgers put up about 45 points

16- seattle-bad defense, Rodgers was solid

Anyway, it always comes down to the players. In your example, it would matter who you're comparing. If you're asking me if I'd rather start Alex Smith or Jay Cutler, I'm taking Jay Cutler hands down at this point in time.

In your Rodgers example his best week was against Pitt WITHOUT Troy Polamulu so that can make a bit of a difference.

Surely you could have found a better anecdotal reference, even though they don't count for much on the whole.

Also w/r/t A Smith vs Cutler; The 9th ranked qb vs the 21st ranked qb? Really?? Again, not a good example. Like you said "In your example, it would matter who you're comparing".

Now I'm not saying this should drive your draft, but to completely dismiss it is foolhardy. I'll freely admit that when making my draft sheet I leaned toward players with easier schedules and have done so in the past. Love the 49ers this year.

Even if you hit on the right Chi WR getting love from Martz this year, I'd still rather have Crabtree going up against a future insurance salesman on the Rams.

 

[cjack]

I see guys say "schedule doesn't matter" during the offseason all the time, and then as soon as the games start, what does everyone talk about? Matchups.

I completely agree. However, I think the OP means that we don't know who the toughest/easiest matchups for weeks 14-16 are going to be right now. He feels there are going to be some top D's that disappoint and some lower ranked ones that surprise with better performance. Therefore, you shouldn't take someone NOW based on an unknown in the future. I'm not saying I completely agree, but I completely see his point.

49ers wks 14-16 Sea, @Sdc, @Stl

Chi wks 14-16 Ne, @Min, NYJ

Instead of talking in generalities let's get specific. Which of these two scheds do you want to face in the FF playoffs?

Do you guys really believe that you can't forecast this with some certainty?

No, I don't think you can.Last year Aaron Rodgers had a playoff schedule of:

14- chicago-bad defense, but Rodgers didn't do anything

15- pittsburgh- had a top 10 defense, Rodgers put up about 45 points

16- seattle-bad defense, Rodgers was solid

Anyway, it always comes down to the players. In your example, it would matter who you're comparing. If you're asking me if I'd rather start Alex Smith or Jay Cutler, I'm taking Jay Cutler hands down at this point in time.

In your Rodgers example his best week was against Pitt WITHOUT Troy Polamulu so that can make a bit of a difference.

Surely you could have found a better anecdotal reference, even though they don't count for much on the whole.

Also w/r/t A Smith vs Cutler; The 9th ranked qb vs the 21st ranked qb? Really?? Again, not a good example. Like you said "In your example, it would matter who you're comparing".

Now I'm not saying this should drive your draft, but to completely dismiss it is foolhardy. I'll freely admit that when making my draft sheet I leaned toward players with easier schedules and have done so in the past. Love the 49ers this year.

Even if you hit on the right Chi WR getting love from Martz this year, I'd still rather have Crabtree going up against a future insurance salesman on the Rams.

Isn't that the point to some degree. Yes, Pitt was without Polamulu, but who predicted that during their draft. Don't overthink it too much.As for Cutler versus Smith, I believe the poster mentioned those two because it was San Fran's schedule being compared against Chicago's schedule in the playoffs. He was saying, regardless of the fact that San Fran has an easier schedule, he isn't playing Smith over Cutler.

I don't think you can rely on SOS too much, but when evaluating a player like Gore, it's nice to see him go up against St. Louis, Seattle and Arizona twice, with some other creampuff rush defenses thrown in as well.

 

[Rick James]

I see guys say "schedule doesn't matter" during the offseason all the time, and then as soon as the games start, what does everyone talk about? Matchups.

I completely agree. However, I think the OP means that we don't know who the toughest/easiest matchups for weeks 14-16 are going to be right now. He feels there are going to be some top D's that disappoint and some lower ranked ones that surprise with better performance. Therefore, you shouldn't take someone NOW based on an unknown in the future. I'm not saying I completely agree, but I completely see his point.

49ers wks 14-16 Sea, @Sdc, @Stl

Chi wks 14-16 Ne, @Min, NYJ

Instead of talking in generalities let's get specific. Which of these two scheds do you want to face in the FF playoffs?

Do you guys really believe that you can't forecast this with some certainty?

No, I don't think you can.Last year Aaron Rodgers had a playoff schedule of:

14- chicago-bad defense, but Rodgers didn't do anything

15- pittsburgh- had a top 10 defense, Rodgers put up about 45 points

16- seattle-bad defense, Rodgers was solid

Anyway, it always comes down to the players. In your example, it would matter who you're comparing. If you're asking me if I'd rather start Alex Smith or Jay Cutler, I'm taking Jay Cutler hands down at this point in time.

In your Rodgers example his best week was against Pitt WITHOUT Troy Polamulu so that can make a bit of a difference.

Surely you could have found a better anecdotal reference, even though they don't count for much on the whole.

Also w/r/t A Smith vs Cutler; The 9th ranked qb vs the 21st ranked qb? Really?? Again, not a good example. Like you said "In your example, it would matter who you're comparing".

Now I'm not saying this should drive your draft, but to completely dismiss it is foolhardy. I'll freely admit that when making my draft sheet I leaned toward players with easier schedules and have done so in the past. Love the 49ers this year.

Even if you hit on the right Chi WR getting love from Martz this year, I'd still rather have Crabtree going up against a future insurance salesman on the Rams.

Troy Polamulu being out is precisely the reason why looking 4 months into the future is foolish. And you're the one who brought up the Chicago vs. SF scenario, not me. If you're asking if I'd rather start Frank Gore vs SF's schedule or Forte vs. Chicago's, I choose Frank Gore....but I would've chosen Frank Gore any way.

 

[da_budman]

I see guys say "schedule doesn't matter" during the offseason all the time, and then as soon as the games start, what does everyone talk about? Matchups.

I completely agree. However, I think the OP means that we don't know who the toughest/easiest matchups for weeks 14-16 are going to be right now. He feels there are going to be some top D's that disappoint and some lower ranked ones that surprise with better performance. Therefore, you shouldn't take someone NOW based on an unknown in the future. I'm not saying I completely agree, but I completely see his point.

49ers wks 14-16 Sea, @Sdc, @Stl

Chi wks 14-16 Ne, @Min, NYJ

Instead of talking in generalities let's get specific. Which of these two scheds do you want to face in the FF playoffs?

Do you guys really believe that you can't forecast this with some certainty?

No, I don't think you can.Last year Aaron Rodgers had a playoff schedule of:

14- chicago-bad defense, but Rodgers didn't do anything

15- pittsburgh- had a top 10 defense, Rodgers put up about 45 points

16- seattle-bad defense, Rodgers was solid

Anyway, it always comes down to the players. In your example, it would matter who you're comparing. If you're asking me if I'd rather start Alex Smith or Jay Cutler, I'm taking Jay Cutler hands down at this point in time.

I think you have shifted the discussion away from early season predictions to whether or not matchups matter at all. Good luch arguing the latter. I also think picking out one particular player to prove a point is not very useful given the sample size. Btw Rodgers didnt do much against the Bears earlier in the year, predicting a less than stellar game there isnt that unusual. Also Pittsburgh was in a funk by that time. If they can give up 3 td's and over 300 yds to a Bruce Gradkowski led Raiders team 2 games earlier, predictng a good one by Rogers isn't out of the question.

 

[hook014]

I originally used Sf vs Chi to put a face on the overall point. After all that's why we look at SOS at all. You could use any number of examples, there are plenty.

When people discount schedules (happens every year) I like to look at some clear examples of what they are dismissing before I'm ready to hop on that train.

Personally I'd rather attempt some long range planning to go with the short range I'm already doing.

BTW Gore vs Forte had me Now you're just being silly.

Along these same lines, you may want to skip the Def team by committee strategy thread. Nothing to see there.

 

[Rick James]

I originally used Sf vs Chi to put a face on the overall point. After all that's why we look at SOS at all. You could use any number of examples, there are plenty.When people discount schedules (happens every year) I like to look at some clear examples of what they are dismissing before I'm ready to hop on that train. Personally I'd rather attempt some long range planning to go with the short range I'm already doing.BTW Gore vs Forte had me Now you're just being silly.Along these same lines, you may want to skip the Def team by committee strategy thread. Nothing to see there.

I'm talking about draft time, looking 4 months into the future and trying to predict who will have an easy playoff schedule. You brought up the SF/CHI schedule debate and I tried to respond to that even though it lacked relevance to the OP or, it seems, a point in general.

 

[hook014]

I originally used Sf vs Chi to put a face on the overall point. After all that's why we look at SOS at all. You could use any number of examples, there are plenty.When people discount schedules (happens every year) I like to look at some clear examples of what they are dismissing before I'm ready to hop on that train. Personally I'd rather attempt some long range planning to go with the short range I'm already doing.BTW Gore vs Forte had me Now you're just being silly.Along these same lines, you may want to skip the Def team by committee strategy thread. Nothing to see there.

I'm talking about draft time, looking 4 months into the future and trying to predict who will have an easy playoff schedule. You brought up the SF/CHI schedule debate and I tried to respond to that even though it lacked relevance to the OP or, it seems, a point in general.

I'm not sure we can discuss playoff schedules without actually looking at them. Seems relevant to me.

 

[Rick James]

I originally used Sf vs Chi to put a face on the overall point. After all that's why we look at SOS at all. You could use any number of examples, there are plenty.When people discount schedules (happens every year) I like to look at some clear examples of what they are dismissing before I'm ready to hop on that train. Personally I'd rather attempt some long range planning to go with the short range I'm already doing.BTW Gore vs Forte had me Now you're just being silly.Along these same lines, you may want to skip the Def team by committee strategy thread. Nothing to see there.

I'm talking about draft time, looking 4 months into the future and trying to predict who will have an easy playoff schedule. You brought up the SF/CHI schedule debate and I tried to respond to that even though it lacked relevance to the OP or, it seems, a point in general.

I'm not sure we can discuss playoff schedules without actually looking at them. Seems relevant to me.

^^^^still doesn't get it

 

[Stinkin Ref]

let's put it this way....

I don't let schedules dictate my draft.........but I would prefer my WR1 not to be on Revis Island in week 14-16

little things like that make a little bit of difference....some things are pretty clear.....Revis will shut down your WR being one of them...

there aren't a bunch of other examples but that is one...

 

[hook014]

let's put it this way....I don't let schedules dictate my draft.........but I would prefer my WR1 not to be on Revis Island in week 14-16 little things like that make a little bit of difference....some things are pretty clear.....Revis will shut down your WR being one of them... there aren't a bunch of other examples but that is one...

Exactly. Asomugha is no picnic either.To flesh this out a little further, it's not about choosing one particular player over another during the draft. That would be way too cumbersome.It's really about draft mapping and targeting certain players in certain rounds knowing that you are going to have favorable scheduling matchups at key points in the season. And the playoffs are certainly a key point in the season.For instance, I targetted Crabtree for my wr2 in the 5th / 6th round knowing his favorable playoff schedule. I knew he'd be there in the 5th, not so sure in the 6th. He was part of my overall strategy to max out my picks. In my local 10 team ppr WRs were flying off the board in rds 2 and 3 just as I knew they would. I could calmly take the RB value in 1 and 2, go BPA in rds 3 and 4 and get him in rd 5. (I actually got him in 6 as the draft seemed to be falling that way and afforded me 1 more round)The point is that it is one consideration among many. It might only be 5% but it comes into play. I used to fly more by the seat of my pants but as I draft year over year planning and looking at the small things have become easier. Just like anything else you do in life. The more you do it the better you get at it.Note to Rick James: ( love your music by the way) Just the fact that you're here leads me to believe you are willing to put in the time to win your league. Commendable and you're my kind of guy. And picking Eli because of a favorable playoff schedule is not the way to win, cause chances are you wont get there. But there are viable ways to plan for a nice playoff run if you start thinking about them in July and you would be well ahead of the owners who start thinking about them in November.

 

[cheese]

Definite unknown. The top ADP defense of the last 5 years only once finished in the top 10 for the season. There will be suprises each way. We will know the good defenses and matchups by week 4 or 5 usually. Thats when you start to wheel and deal to get the playoff lineup you desire.

Huge difference between a defense finishing high in fantasy points and a defense being a top matchup for your players. The main reason why top ADP defenses are impossible to predict is that most of the points for defense come from big plays/scoring, not shutting down offenses. Predicting who will shut down offenses going into the year is more like an educated guess instead of a complete shot in the dark like fantasy defenses usually are.