Jene Bramel
Footballguy
Looking for a undervalued defensive lineman? With the availability of the quarterback hit statistic, there’s a way to identify linemen who consistently get to the quarterback but didn't close the deal. Subtracting sacks from quarterback hits yields a metric I’ll call Isolated QH.
The NFL asks stat crews to award a QH whenever a quarterback hits the ground. There’s an easy argument to be made that those defensive ends who consistently hit the quarterback are those most likely to sack the quarterback. In truth, the argument may not be quite that clean. A defensive end may just not have the closing speed or instincts or hand speed to finish the sack. Like passes defensed, the QH is an unofficial stat with some stadium-to-stadium variability. Also, with only one season of data from the NFL, it’s hard to know what significant or just how predictive this metric may be. But if you’re looking for a guy who could have a rebound season or a situational player who might break out, Isolated QH isn’t a bad place to start.
I’ll put this into a full article for the site soon, but here’s a preview of some players this metric highlights as strong upside gambles.
Andre Carter
Carter will be the poster boy for the Isolated QH metric this season. He finished second only to Aaron Kampman in Isolated QH last season with 15. That’s nearly once a game that Carter, who only had four sacks last year, brought the quarterback to the ground but didn’t get credit for a sack. Many of the league’s best all-around ends have sack totals that are about 50% of their QH totals. Carter had 19 total QHs last season. A similar pace could bump his sack total toward double digits on pure luck alone. Add in the presence of Albert Haynesworth and rumors of a more aggressive front four philosophy and the probability of a rebound season seems very high.
Gaines Adams
Adams had 6.5 sacks last season, but finished with 21 QHs and the third most Isolated QHs among linemen last year with 14.5. Adams has another season in the NFL under his belt and a defensive coordinator who wants to give him a better angle to the quarterback. He may not have fallen as far off the radar as Carter and he may never develop the run support consistency to become an elite fantasy option, but the metric suggests that a double digit sack season is well within reach.
Alex Brown
Brown is an interesting case. It shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone who regularly sees the Bears that Brown gets a high ranking with this metric (T9th with 12 Iso QH). He’s consistently around the quarterback. As such, Brown is one of the players that worries me when projecting a rebound season with Isolated QH. It wouldn’t surprise me to find (if we had the numbers) that Brown is consistently near the top of this list but just not dynamic enough in the pocket to convert the chances to sacks.
Ray Edwards
Edwards also has 12 Isolated QHs and he’s a really intriguing player for this list. On one hand, he’s been in the league for three seasons and flashed plenty of promise without the big breakout season. On the other hand, it would seemingly be very difficult to beat guys like Jared Allen and Kevin Williams to the quarterback as often as he did last season (18 QHs). Unless a bunch of those were instances where the studs pushed the quarterback toward Edwards (and that’s very possible), there’s some potential for improvement with Edwards.
Other guys possibly in line for breakout seasons according to this metric include David Ball and Chris Long, both of whom had eight Isolated QHs. Ball may be particularly intriguing if he earns significant rotational playing time.
The NFL asks stat crews to award a QH whenever a quarterback hits the ground. There’s an easy argument to be made that those defensive ends who consistently hit the quarterback are those most likely to sack the quarterback. In truth, the argument may not be quite that clean. A defensive end may just not have the closing speed or instincts or hand speed to finish the sack. Like passes defensed, the QH is an unofficial stat with some stadium-to-stadium variability. Also, with only one season of data from the NFL, it’s hard to know what significant or just how predictive this metric may be. But if you’re looking for a guy who could have a rebound season or a situational player who might break out, Isolated QH isn’t a bad place to start.
I’ll put this into a full article for the site soon, but here’s a preview of some players this metric highlights as strong upside gambles.
Andre Carter
Carter will be the poster boy for the Isolated QH metric this season. He finished second only to Aaron Kampman in Isolated QH last season with 15. That’s nearly once a game that Carter, who only had four sacks last year, brought the quarterback to the ground but didn’t get credit for a sack. Many of the league’s best all-around ends have sack totals that are about 50% of their QH totals. Carter had 19 total QHs last season. A similar pace could bump his sack total toward double digits on pure luck alone. Add in the presence of Albert Haynesworth and rumors of a more aggressive front four philosophy and the probability of a rebound season seems very high.
Gaines Adams
Adams had 6.5 sacks last season, but finished with 21 QHs and the third most Isolated QHs among linemen last year with 14.5. Adams has another season in the NFL under his belt and a defensive coordinator who wants to give him a better angle to the quarterback. He may not have fallen as far off the radar as Carter and he may never develop the run support consistency to become an elite fantasy option, but the metric suggests that a double digit sack season is well within reach.
Alex Brown
Brown is an interesting case. It shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone who regularly sees the Bears that Brown gets a high ranking with this metric (T9th with 12 Iso QH). He’s consistently around the quarterback. As such, Brown is one of the players that worries me when projecting a rebound season with Isolated QH. It wouldn’t surprise me to find (if we had the numbers) that Brown is consistently near the top of this list but just not dynamic enough in the pocket to convert the chances to sacks.
Ray Edwards
Edwards also has 12 Isolated QHs and he’s a really intriguing player for this list. On one hand, he’s been in the league for three seasons and flashed plenty of promise without the big breakout season. On the other hand, it would seemingly be very difficult to beat guys like Jared Allen and Kevin Williams to the quarterback as often as he did last season (18 QHs). Unless a bunch of those were instances where the studs pushed the quarterback toward Edwards (and that’s very possible), there’s some potential for improvement with Edwards.
Other guys possibly in line for breakout seasons according to this metric include David Ball and Chris Long, both of whom had eight Isolated QHs. Ball may be particularly intriguing if he earns significant rotational playing time.
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