Lopsided offer in Dynasty. What do you do? (1 Viewer)

[bro1ncos]

Long lasting online dynasty league where you know no one on more than a league mate level.

You get offered what you feel is a lopsided trade in your favor. Zero collusion involved. Ex. 1.01 for mid-first and a RB2/3 value player.

Not causing the end of the league, but still stinky. No money at stake.

Do you accept the offer?

 

[Golden Gopher]

I would probably accept in the situation you described. But, my experience is that values are all over the place, in terms of how different owners look at picks versus players, etc. Depending on who the RB2/3 is, I think you COULD make an argument as to why someone might want to move down a half round and pick up another startable piece. Granted, if they shopped that 1.01 around, they'll likely be able to find someone willing to pay more, but that's up to them. Some people don't have the patience to do so. And, maybe that RB2/3 is just someone they value higher than most, making it a decent deal in their mind.

That said, as much as opinions differ, I get what you're asking. If it is so lopsided that nobody can really make a solid argument in favor of the other side, it becomes a tougher decision. I think, then, it also depends on who's offering. If they're brand new to the league, I'm saying something. If they've been around for a decade, maybe not? Or, maybe I would just ask if they missed a piece in the offer.

Great question/topic, though.

 

[Grahamburn]

Why is a mid-first plus a RB2 for the 1.1 considered lopsided? Maybe that owner doesn't believe in Jeanty and has someone else in mind with that mid-first pick that they're higher on than consensus. Who is the RB2? Maybe they really believe in that player and feel like they're buying low before a big breakout.

 

[farfromforgotten]

Interesting question and it made me realize that in my 30 years of FF I’ve never had an offer like this come through in any of my leagues. I don’t play many leagues but still. I have had many discussions with others that have led to hypothetical offers being sent my way and I’ve said “if you want to do that deal, I’ll also throw so and so into the offer if you’re interested” trying to balance them out some. So I’d like to say that I’d do the same in the situation you mentioned. Countered after some additional dialogue.

Edit: I’ve also been Commissioner of most of my leagues so that may have led me to be more leery of trades that could possibly make a team “fall apart” and have the owner lose interest or abandon. Maybe that shouldn’t be any of my concern if it’s not clear collusion but I’ve always felt like it should be a concern of mine anyways.

 

[TheWinz]

Accept if you like the offer. As you can see from the first 2 replies, beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Now, if the offer was something like the 1.01 straight up for 1.12, that is completely lopsided and cannot be defended.

 

[bro1ncos]

Why is a mid-first plus a RB2 for the 1.1 considered lopsided? Maybe that owner doesn't believe in Jeanty and has someone else in mind with that mid-first pick that they're higher on than consensus. Who is the RB2? Maybe they really believe in that player and feel like they're buying low before a big breakout.

Pacheco

 

[Grahamburn]

Why is a mid-first plus a RB2 for the 1.1 considered lopsided? Maybe that owner doesn't believe in Jeanty and has someone else in mind with that mid-first pick that they're higher on than consensus. Who is the RB2? Maybe they really believe in that player and feel like they're buying low before a big breakout.

Pacheco

Ok. So, he's targeting a player on a great offensive team that has a pretty good inside track to touches. And the person trading the 1.1 are they already strong at RB otherwise? If they can back up a few spots in the first and pick up one of the top WRs maybe they feel like this is a way for them to improve their team overall versus having a difficult decision to make at RB every week?

Just playing devil's advocate.

Plenty of "generational" RBs have been drafted early in the NFL over the last ~10-15 years. They aren't guaranteed to pan out when they end up on bad teams.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Why is a mid-first plus a RB2 for the 1.1 considered lopsided? Maybe that owner doesn't believe in Jeanty and has someone else in mind with that mid-first pick that they're higher on than consensus. Who is the RB2? Maybe they really believe in that player and feel like they're buying low before a big breakout.

Pacheco

offering 1.01 for Pacheco and a mid-1st is pretty lopsided, and very dumb, but it’s not end of the league type stuff.

As there’s no money involved, and you don’t know anyone, screw it - accept the deal. In a money league this would be an issue. Not saying money determines ethics, of course, just that stuff like this is magnified in that context.

You received an offer - so IMO that isn’t an ethics issue. Just someone offering you a dumb trade.

I dealt Darnold+Warren+Bateman for Addison last week in a SF league. 3 messages, all from friends - 1 saying I was an idiot for overpaying for Addison, 2 saying I was taking advantage of the new owner by sending a pile of rocks for a WR2. As others have said, beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

 

[brewer]

The only time I wouldn't take a trade like this is if I feel the owner is in over their head and it wouldn't be in the best interest of the league to do so.

The trade you describe is far from that, smash accept and move along. Plenty of trades that looked to favor one party have turned out to favor the other, it's the nature of the beast.

 

[pinkstapler]

Why is a mid-first plus a RB2 for the 1.1 considered lopsided? Maybe that owner doesn't believe in Jeanty and has someone else in mind with that mid-first pick that they're higher on than consensus. Who is the RB2? Maybe they really believe in that player and feel like they're buying low before a big breakout.

Pacheco

Ok. So, he's targeting a player on a great offensive team that has a pretty good inside track to touches. And the person trading the 1.1 are they already strong at RB otherwise? If they can back up a few spots in the first and pick up one of the top WRs maybe they feel like this is a way for them to improve their team overall versus having a difficult decision to make at RB every week?

Just playing devil's advocate.

Plenty of "generational" RBs have been drafted early in the NFL over the last ~10-15 years. They aren't guaranteed to pan out when they end up on bad teams.

Agree with the majority of this, however 1st round RBs have the highest historical hit rate percentages of any position in fantasy. The number pushes in the mid to high 80s when you cut the range to first half the of the first round. Basically an early 1st round draft capital RB is as close as you can get to a sure thing in fantasy.

But yeah, if I remove my personal belief Pacheco is a mediocre RB who is almost guaranteed to get a rookie competing with him in the backfield and I think some rookies who will be going in the 4th and 5th round this year are just as good if not better than Pacheco; it's not really a trade I'd say is league breaking lopsided. I've played with plenty of cry babies who would be throwing a fit about a trade like that though. Happy to not commission any leagues like that anymore.

Hopefully this guy is at least shopping the 1.01 to multiple people. That's normally the first complaint you'll get from a league in what can appear to be a bad/lopsided trade. If Pacheco and a mid 1st is the best offer on the table, it becomes much easier to defend as reasonable.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

Always take the deal in this situation. Your leaguemates can work out any issues they have in chat and if it's voided, then so be it.

 

[JAA]

Always take the deal in this situation. Your leaguemates can work out any issues they have in chat and if it's voided, then so be it.

this

 

[bro1ncos]

Full disclosure, deal started with me offering Pacheco for 2.01, which I thought would be a good deal for me. He countered with the 1.01 offer

 

[eighsse2]

Long lasting online dynasty league where you know no one on more than a league mate level.

You get offered what you feel is a lopsided trade in your favor. Zero collusion involved. Ex. 1.01 for mid-first and a RB2/3 value player.

Not causing the end of the league, but still stinky. No money at stake.

Do you accept the offer?

Don't understand why you would not take a lopsided offer in your favor.

Granted I made an exception to that rule recently, but it was in negotiations with someone who had literally just joined the league. I started to point out some things about the potential trade, and then he said he's never played dynasty before and needed to do more research. Which makes sense. So I completely understand not screwing over a new guy. But if it's an experienced dynasty player, it can be the most lopsided trade imaginable in my favor and I don't know why I would not accept it.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Full disclosure, deal started with me offering Pacheco for 2.01, which I thought would be a good deal for me. He countered with the 1.01 offer

lol wow.

I wake up from dreams like this and have to change my bedsheets.

 

[smbkrypt24]

Are you the commissioner?
Do you know level of expertise of other owners?

 

[brewer]

Full disclosure, deal started with me offering Pacheco for 2.01, which I thought would be a good deal for me. He countered with the 1.01 offer

Just for giggles, I looked at another site that I use occasionally. They suggest that the Pacheco + mid first in dynasty is worth more than the 1.01. Actually they think Pacheco plus any first is worth more than the 1.01.

People have different opinions and I would suggest that some value Pacheco going forward way more than others.

 

[bro1ncos]

Full disclosure, deal started with me offering Pacheco for 2.01, which I thought would be a good deal for me. He countered with the 1.01 offer

Just for giggles, I looked at another site that I use occasionally. They suggest that the Pacheco + mid first in dynasty is worth more than the 1.01. Actually they think Pacheco plus any first is worth more than the 1.01.

People have different opinions and I would suggest that some value Pacheco going forward way more than others.

I would be interested to know if the website is high on Pacheco, low on Jeanetty, or just low on rookie picks in general.

I'm not saying Pacheco doesn't have value, but generational talent isn't in his realm of possibilities.

 

[taylormeetstheismann]

You can always decline an offer or counter it.

Problem solved.

 

[ratbast]

You could counter with a higher offer from you but still lopsided for you, so your league mates don’t beat him up.

 

[brewer]

Full disclosure, deal started with me offering Pacheco for 2.01, which I thought would be a good deal for me. He countered with the 1.01 offer

Just for giggles, I looked at another site that I use occasionally. They suggest that the Pacheco + mid first in dynasty is worth more than the 1.01. Actually they think Pacheco plus any first is worth more than the 1.01.

People have different opinions and I would suggest that some value Pacheco going forward way more than others.

I would be interested to know if the website is high on Pacheco, low on Jeanetty, or just low on rookie picks in general.

I'm not saying Pacheco doesn't have value, but generational talent isn't in his realm of possibilities.

Pacheco they have as about RB 25, they have the first overall pick as about one and a half times the 6th overall pick.

Looks to me that they are actually high on rookies but don't drop value as quickly from top to bottom of round one as some others.

 

[Wigglytuff's Gruff]

The guy is clearly using a trade calculator from somewhere like Keep Trade Cut or Rototrade (which generally values players significantly higher than draft picks).

It's a bad offer and you should definitely accept it. The rest of the players in your league would.

You should keep the idea that they are using one of these calcs in mind when trading with them in the future so you can use the flawed systems to your advantage. Possibly even float some trades to them in the coming days to see what the response is. As soon as I know a trade calculator is how someone creates the foundation of their values, I know I can exploit them. 4 dimes for a dollar etc.

But, the in the moment balance of value and the longer term outcomes are mutually exclusive and even more removed from one another when draft picks are involved. This time last year, in a deal with a relative noob using a trade calculator, I traded the 1.10, QJ, Kmet and a couple of other nothingy bits for Breece Hall. Seemed like a slam dunk for me at the time. The 1.10 netted him BTJ. BTJ, Kmet, QJ for Breece Hall looks a pretty sweet deal right now for that guy I'd say.

You just don't know till you follow the production for a few seasons, or till the draft picks manifest into players.

Jeanty can bust. Whoever ends up being picked with the mid 1st might be a superhero. Pacheco might rebound and be amazing. It isn't a good trade right now. It might be a great trade in retrospect. And it might and end being a great trade for both parties when all is said and done. Too many trades are framed as having a winner and a loser.