LT the rest of the year (1 Viewer)

[EdwardCat]

Tomlinson hasn't prevailed against tough run defenses this year. The early season struggles could be an indication of poor play calling. It is hard to tell at this point. He did plow over the Denver and Oakland defenses but that isn't anything overly impressive considering how bad they are. Looking at what is on LT's plate for the season's remainder, he could be in for some struggles. Anyone want to venture some guesses how he will fare?

@ MIN 15/42 3/23 0.5 TD - Very tough run defense. Surrendered fewer than 50 yards to Westbrook this week. SD will rely on throwing the ball 75% of the time.

IND 22/120 4/18 1.2 TD - They have yet to face a solid RB this year so their #s are better than they seem. Indy proposes a tough challenge to SD's offense so LT will be a factor all game.

@ JAX 20/95 1/12 0.7 TD - Jacksonville has faced two tier 1 RBs (Addai and Johnson). Addai succeeded against them. Johnson did not.

BAL 14/74 4/20 0.9 TD - Stuffed Gore. Lynch did well. James didn't get enough touches to really evaluate. Contained Rudi Johnson. (2 rushing TDs allowed)

@ KC 20/136 2/7 1.8 TD - Good matchup for LT.

@ TEN 17/83 5/31 0.8 TD - Solid run defense...against mediocre RBs. They didn't really shut down Addai. They did stuff Jones-Drew when the Jaguars were having trouble running the ball early in the season. Not as good as they seem.

DET 14/126 1/7 3.0 TD - SD will either use LT to destroy DET or they will get up big so early that LT will become a non-factor.

DEN 23/118 4/32 1.2 TD - Denver can't ever find an answer for LT

After doing this analysis, it seems LT will fare okay - not LT okay...but okay. Most of the tough defenses he's facing are considered tough because of the RBs they've faced. If they were shutting down the likes of Parker, Westbrook, and McGahee it would be a different story. Shutting down Jordan, Green, and Graham doesn't imply great defense. It means they are forcing these teams to pass and creating false numbers in their rushing defense.

Please feel free to disagree with me. Flames cheerfully ignored.

 

[BoltBacker]

Please feel free to disagree with me. Flames cheerfully ignored.

Disagree with "After doing this analysis, it seems LT will fare okay"??You seem like the most tortured Tomlinson owner in the history of FF. MT suggested you put yourself out of your own misery and trade him already. Seems like sound advice.

 

[EdwardCat]

Please feel free to disagree with me. Flames cheerfully ignored.

Disagree with "After doing this analysis, it seems LT will fare okay"??You seem like the most tortured Tomlinson owner in the history of FF. MT suggested you put yourself out of your own misery and trade him already. Seems like sound advice.

Cheerfully ignored.

 

[drm1125]

As an LT owner, it's pretty hard to say what he'll do against tougher D's. I tend to think most of the blame on the slow start of LT was due to Norv Turner. They weren't really giving him the ball much. I'm just not sure what you can take out of those first few games. I don't think today's game was a bad game for LT, just big plays for Gates/ passing, so he never really got much going. He didn't play for almost all of the 4th quarter and not really much of the 3rd, turner started spelling him pretty early.

 

[EdwardCat]

As an LT owner, it's pretty hard to say what he'll do against tougher D's. I tend to think most of the blame on the slow start of LT was due to Norv Turner. They weren't really giving him the ball much. I'm just not sure what you can take out of those first few games. I don't think today's game was a bad game for LT, just big plays for Gates/ passing, so he never really got much going. He didn't play for almost all of the 4th quarter and not really much of the 3rd, turner started spelling him pretty early.

Turner only had 4 carries, though. I didn't see the game nor was I able to watch the stats as I was celebrating my son's birthday. It seems LT's #'s got sideswiped rather through any fault of his own. This game seems like an anomaly. How many times have the Chargers put up more than 28 points and LT hasn't passed the stripe at least once? That'd be a stat to put today's game in perspective. It isn't often a team gets two quick passing TDs and two quick defensive TDs. To top it off, the numbers Houston accumulated points to an inability to challenge SD at any level.

 

[drm1125]

Yes, it was a very strange game. Turner only got 4 carries? Strange, it seemed like more? I know for sure that LT didn't play for most of 4th quarter. He also didn't really get any passes to him. The thing about this game was that the chargers scored so fast, that they didn't really have any sustained drives. I was really surprised at the texans defense.

 

[EdwardCat]

Yes, it was a very strange game. Turner only got 4 carries? Strange, it seemed like more? I know for sure that LT didn't play for most of 4th quarter. He also didn't really get any passes to him. The thing about this game was that the chargers scored so fast, that they didn't really have any sustained drives. I was really surprised at the texans defense.

There was one drive where LT had a chance to score. They were up 28-something. LT was driving towards the endzone. He had a rush of -3. The immediately abandoned the run and tossed it to Chambers. That's one tiny snippet I managed to catch. Who knew the Houston pass defense would be so horrible that Rivers could score on them at will throughout the first half?He's on pace for 1900 total yards and 16 TDs. The yards are on target for what people expected. Most anticipated 20-24 TDs.At this point last year, he was on pace for 2200 yards and 25 TDs.

 

[EdwardCat]

Any other thoughts on my projections for his upcoming games? Do any of them seem off?

 

[Zow]

Any other thoughts on my projections for his upcoming games? Do any of them seem off?

Seem about right in that there's only 2-3 teams I'd worry about and I'd be willing to bet LT2 has a big game in at least one of them where he rips off like two long runs for TDs.I think when all is said and done, with SD going to be needing to play hard the rest of their season to get that third seed, LT2 will end with like 18 and 2000. Meaning, you probably need to chill out a little bit. He'll still wind up the best fantasy RB at least by year's end.

 

[Max Power]

Sure, he might struggle, But will still finish the #1 RB in football. So, whats the issue here?

 

[AnonymousBob]

He's struggled this season and he's still the #2 rb.

 

[rascal]

Tomlinson hasn't prevailed against tough run defenses this year. The early season struggles could be an indication of poor play calling. It is hard to tell at this point. He did plow over the Denver and Oakland defenses but that isn't anything overly impressive considering how bad they are. Looking at what is on LT's plate for the season's remainder, he could be in for some struggles. Anyone want to venture some guesses how he will fare?@ MIN 15/42 3/23 0.5 TD - Very tough run defense. Surrendered fewer than 50 yards to Westbrook this week. SD will rely on throwing the ball 75% of the time.IND 22/120 4/18 1.2 TD - They have yet to face a solid RB this year so their #s are better than they seem. Indy proposes a tough challenge to SD's offense so LT will be a factor all game.@ JAX 20/95 1/12 0.7 TD - Jacksonville has faced two tier 1 RBs (Addai and Johnson). Addai succeeded against them. Johnson did not.BAL 14/74 4/20 0.9 TD - Stuffed Gore. Lynch did well. James didn't get enough touches to really evaluate. Contained Rudi Johnson. (2 rushing TDs allowed)@ KC 20/136 2/7 1.8 TD - Good matchup for LT.@ TEN 17/83 5/31 0.8 TD - Solid run defense...against mediocre RBs. They didn't really shut down Addai. They did stuff Jones-Drew when the Jaguars were having trouble running the ball early in the season. Not as good as they seem.DET 14/126 1/7 3.0 TD - SD will either use LT to destroy DET or they will get up big so early that LT will become a non-factor.DEN 23/118 4/32 1.2 TD - Denver can't ever find an answer for LTAfter doing this analysis, it seems LT will fare okay - not LT okay...but okay. Most of the tough defenses he's facing are considered tough because of the RBs they've faced. If they were shutting down the likes of Parker, Westbrook, and McGahee it would be a different story. Shutting down Jordan, Green, and Graham doesn't imply great defense. It means they are forcing these teams to pass and creating false numbers in their rushing defense.Please feel free to disagree with me. Flames cheerfully ignored.

Chiefs defense is better than they get credit for, and prior to last year Denver had done pretty good against LT. Plus in this years game he didn't do much except for a couple of pass plays.

 

[wickster33]

I find this whole thread confusing. Would you rather have Addai or AD Peterson and worry about how many touches they'll get in a game. If not, LT is clearly the best rb in the league regardless of the matchup. If you want to trade him, I'm sure you'll have no shortage of suiters in your league.

 

[Despyzer]

Tomlinson is averaging almost 4.5 yds./carry and is among the league leaders in TDs and you want to gripe about his production?

Last year Tomlinson had SIX games where he failed to rush for multiple TDs, and that was during the single greatest scoring season for a RB ever. The year before that he had TEN and still finished with 20 TDs.

If you want to overreact over a few games where his production didn't meet ridiculous expectations, go ahead (it seems to be your specialty). Don't be surprised though when he busts out for 150+ and 3 TDs against one of these tough run defenses.

 

[largentslovechild]

I'm not concerned with Tomlinson's output. Quite frankly, there's only three other Running Backs that negate him on a weekly basis (non-ppr), and all 3 have some worry (or two) associated with them.

Westbrook

Addai

Peterson

Any other back is a minimum 5 ppg drop.

When you have the best back in the league, it's better to spend your time and effort looking at other parts of the hull.

 

[MCguidance]

Tomlinson hasn't prevailed against tough run defenses this year. The early season struggles could be an indication of poor play calling. It is hard to tell at this point. He did plow over the Denver and Oakland defenses but that isn't anything overly impressive considering how bad they are. Looking at what is on LT's plate for the season's remainder, he could be in for some struggles. Anyone want to venture some guesses how he will fare?

@ MIN 15/42 3/23 0.5 TD - Very tough run defense. Surrendered fewer than 50 yards to Westbrook this week. SD will rely on throwing the ball 75% of the time.

IND 22/120 4/18 1.2 TD - They have yet to face a solid RB this year so their #s are better than they seem. Indy proposes a tough challenge to SD's offense so LT will be a factor all game.

@ JAX 20/95 1/12 0.7 TD - Jacksonville has faced two tier 1 RBs (Addai and Johnson). Addai succeeded against them. Johnson did not.

BAL 14/74 4/20 0.9 TD - Stuffed Gore. Lynch did well. James didn't get enough touches to really evaluate. Contained Rudi Johnson. (2 rushing TDs allowed)

@ KC 20/136 2/7 1.8 TD - Good matchup for LT.

@ TEN 17/83 5/31 0.8 TD - Solid run defense...against mediocre RBs. They didn't really shut down Addai. They did stuff Jones-Drew when the Jaguars were having trouble running the ball early in the season. Not as good as they seem.

DET 14/126 1/7 3.0 TD - SD will either use LT to destroy DET or they will get up big so early that LT will become a non-factor.

DEN 23/118 4/32 1.2 TD - Denver can't ever find an answer for LT

After doing this analysis, it seems LT will fare okay - not LT okay...but okay. Most of the tough defenses he's facing are considered tough because of the RBs they've faced. If they were shutting down the likes of Parker, Westbrook, and McGahee it would be a different story. Shutting down Jordan, Green, and Graham doesn't imply great defense. It means they are forcing these teams to pass and creating false numbers in their rushing defense.

Please feel free to disagree with me. Flames cheerfully ignored.

This was Denvers stat line against Indy:CAR YDS AVG TD LG

T. Henry 26 131 5.0 0 15

S. Young 8 81 10.1 0 32

just disagreeing with that statement, but bolstering the argument that lt will do very well against indy

 

[EdwardCat]

Tomlinson is averaging almost 4.5 yds./carry and is among the league leaders in TDs and you want to gripe about his production? Last year Tomlinson had SIX games where he failed to rush for multiple TDs, and that was during the single greatest scoring season for a RB ever. The year before that he had TEN and still finished with 20 TDs.If you want to overreact over a few games where his production didn't meet ridiculous expectations, go ahead (it seems to be your specialty). Don't be surprised though when he busts out for 150+ and 3 TDs against one of these tough run defenses.

If you don't like me, feel free not to read anything I write or click on any posts I start. I think your life would be better off. You seem like a very bitter, desolate individual who gets bent out of shape regarding people who have no effect on his life. Honestly...just move on. We'd both be better off.

 

[Despyzer]

You seem like a very bitter, desolate individual who gets bent out of shape regarding people who have no effect on his life. Honestly...just move on. We'd both be better off.

Is this what Tomlinson said to you?

 

[jurb26]

He's struggled this season and he's still the #2 rb.

He's only the #9 overall player and people were willing to give their first born to draft this guy. He was supposed to be a LOCK #1 overall. It would be one thing if he was injured. He just isn't getting it done. If Brown, Westy and Addai had not missed time this year he wouldn't even be as high as he is.

 

[EdwardCat]

He's struggled this season and he's still the #2 rb.

He's only the #9 overall player and people were willing to give their first born to draft this guy. He was supposed to be a LOCK #1 overall. It would be one thing if he was injured. He just isn't getting it done. If Brown, Westy and Addai had not missed time this year he wouldn't even be as high as he is.

I agree. I get tired of people assuming he's going to finish the year as the #1 back. He isn't the #1 back and has only finished as the #1 fantasy back once...last year. He faces a string of difficult defenses coming up. It is just wise to be aware of it. While there isn't much we can do it about it, discourse on the matter does help to plan accordingly.

 

[AnonymousBob]

He's struggled this season and he's still the #2 rb.

He's only the #9 overall player and people were willing to give their first born to draft this guy. He was supposed to be a LOCK #1 overall. It would be one thing if he was injured. He just isn't getting it done. If Brown, Westy and Addai had not missed time this year he wouldn't even be as high as he is.

But they did get injured. And LT hasn't been hurt.In the preseason there were quite a few people saying LT probably wouldn't finish as the #1, repeat last year's numbers, etc. The only problem was, none of us knew who to predict for a better year. Brown had a terrible team. Westbrook and Addai had health/durability concerns. SJax seemed a possible candidate. As did Gore. A lot of the top guys have flopped-when people drafted LT, the realistic ones didn't expect the same numbers from last year. I don't think most people, in the preseason, would be surprised to see someone finish higher than LT come week 17. What makes LT so special is what makes Manning so remarkable-he may not finish as THE top guy but he's an absolute lock to finish top 3.

 

[jurb26]

He's struggled this season and he's still the #2 rb.

He's only the #9 overall player and people were willing to give their first born to draft this guy. He was supposed to be a LOCK #1 overall. It would be one thing if he was injured. He just isn't getting it done. If Brown, Westy and Addai had not missed time this year he wouldn't even be as high as he is.

But they did get injured. And LT hasn't been hurt.In the preseason there were quite a few people saying LT probably wouldn't finish as the #1, repeat last year's numbers, etc. The only problem was, none of us knew who to predict for a better year. Brown had a terrible team. Westbrook and Addai had health/durability concerns. SJax seemed a possible candidate. As did Gore. A lot of the top guys have flopped-when people drafted LT, the realistic ones didn't expect the same numbers from last year. I don't think most people, in the preseason, would be surprised to see someone finish higher than LT come week 17. What makes LT so special is what makes Manning so remarkable-he may not finish as THE top guy but he's an absolute lock to finish top 3.

Yeah, they did get injured but 2 of them are now healthy.

 

[EdwardCat]

He's struggled this season and he's still the #2 rb.

He's only the #9 overall player and people were willing to give their first born to draft this guy. He was supposed to be a LOCK #1 overall. It would be one thing if he was injured. He just isn't getting it done. If Brown, Westy and Addai had not missed time this year he wouldn't even be as high as he is.

But they did get injured. And LT hasn't been hurt.In the preseason there were quite a few people saying LT probably wouldn't finish as the #1, repeat last year's numbers, etc. The only problem was, none of us knew who to predict for a better year. Brown had a terrible team. Westbrook and Addai had health/durability concerns. SJax seemed a possible candidate. As did Gore. A lot of the top guys have flopped-when people drafted LT, the realistic ones didn't expect the same numbers from last year. I don't think most people, in the preseason, would be surprised to see someone finish higher than LT come week 17. What makes LT so special is what makes Manning so remarkable-he may not finish as THE top guy but he's an absolute lock to finish top 3.

This is absolutely true. Over the span of LT's career, no other RB has been more consistent. I will never contest the greatness of LT. I'm just focusing on these next 6 weeks. In this year of unexpected fantasy tragedies (yup, over-dramatic), consistency is the key. The question remains, can LT be consistent against this string of tough defenses?

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

He was supposed to be a LOCK #1 overall.

There's no such thing as a lock to finish #1. Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, and Larry Johnson were all fairly close to LT in most people's projections, so even if the universe of fantasy players consisted only of those four players, LT wouldn't have been that much higher than 25% to finish number one. But the universe of fantasy players is in fact much larger than that.LT was the correct #1 draft choice based on the information available before the start of the season, and may still be the correct #1 draft choice based on what we know now (although a strong case could be made for Tom Brady, obviously) -- but he was never a lock to finish the season #1. Nobody ever is.

 

[jurb26]

He was supposed to be a LOCK #1 overall.

There's no such thing as a lock to finish #1. Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, and Larry Johnson were all fairly close to LT in most people's projections, so even if the universe of fantasy players consisted only of those four players, LT wouldn't have been that much higher than 25% to finish number one. But the universe of fantasy players is in fact much larger than that.LT was the correct #1 draft choice based on the information available before the start of the season, and may still be the correct #1 draft choice based on what we know now (although a strong case could be made for Tom Brady, obviously) -- but he was never a lock to finish the season #1. Nobody ever is.

Don't twist what I wrote. I said a lock #1 overall pick. Not a lock to finish #1. Ummm, no. LT was not the correct answer. It's rather clear that the correct answer would have been to pick Brady #1 overall.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

He was supposed to be a LOCK #1 overall.

There's no such thing as a lock to finish #1. Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, and Larry Johnson were all fairly close to LT in most people's projections, so even if the universe of fantasy players consisted only of those four players, LT wouldn't have been that much higher than 25% to finish number one. But the universe of fantasy players is in fact much larger than that.LT was the correct #1 draft choice based on the information available before the start of the season, and may still be the correct #1 draft choice based on what we know now (although a strong case could be made for Tom Brady, obviously) -- but he was never a lock to finish the season #1. Nobody ever is.

Don't twist what I wrote. I said a lock #1 overall pick. Not a lock to finish #1. Ummm, no. LT was not the correct answer. It's rather clear that the correct answer would have been to pick Brady #1 overall.

I wasn't twisting. I was going with what I thought you meant.If you just meant that LT was the consensus #1 pick during the preseason, well, yeah. Rightly so.

 

[Scarpaggio]

The following stats below for one of my dynasty leagues shows why I would draft him #1 in a redraft league. I'm missing data for 2003 but with LT being in the top 5 total points every year at RB you have to draft him for the simple fact that there is no one else on this list for the list every year for the last 5 years. If I was an owner and could get top 5 out of him I'd be happy. Look at all the injuries and RBBC situations.

2007

Peterson, Adrian MIN RB ® 118

Brown, Ronnie MIA RB 109

Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB 108

Addai, Joseph IND RB 104

Westbrook, Brian PHI RB 91

2006

Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB 394

Johnson, Larry KCC RB 314

Jackson, Steven STL RB 261

Parker, Willie PIT RB 239

Gore, Frank SFO RB 230

2005

Alexander, Shaun SEA RB 359

Johnson, Larry KCC RB 313

Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB 277

Barber, Tiki NYG RB 264

James, Edgerrin IND RB 239

2004

Alexander, Shaun SEA RB 278

Barber, Tiki NYG RB 256

Martin, Curtis NYJ RB 256

Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB 242

Dillon, Corey NEP RB 235

2002

Holmes, Priest KCC RB 304

Williams, Ricky MIA RB 265

Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB 233

Portis, Clinton DEN RB 232

McAllister, Deuce NOS RB 211