Pittsburgh United
Footballguy
Is there anything to the legendary Madden Curse?
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Madden curse (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Pittsburgh United
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GRIDIRON ASSASSIN
Footballguy
Eddie George had one of his best seasons the year he was on the cover of Madden.
Injuries are a part of football, it's a coincidence - that's all.
Injuries are a part of football, it's a coincidence - that's all.
a_rackowski
Footballguy
What about Steady Eddie bobbling a pass away in the superbowl - which Ray Lewis picked off and returned for a TD. For the rest of his career he never averaged over 3.4 ypc.
GRIDIRON ASSASSIN
Footballguy
LOL.... I must not have caught that Super Bowl where the Titans faced the Ravens.Sorry champ, the Titans were in the Super Bowl against the Rams the year Eddie George was on the cover of Madden. The ONLY time the Titans were in the Super Bowl. Make sure you get your 'years' correct too, as Madden is one year ahead of the actual NFL season.The year Eddie George was on the cover was one of his most productive NFL seasons, it's indisputable. ALL players on the cover of any video game eventually see their career tail off. It's called the aging process.
corpcow
Footballguy
I know what you're trying to say, but someone never took a logic course.The argument is that if someone is on the cover of Madden, then they will have a bad year. If someone is not on the cover of Madden, it doesn't mean they will have a good year. The only thing that would disprove that statement would be someone who had a good year and WAS on the cover.In other words, the argument that Eddie had a good year (assuming that's correct) is valid to dispute this. The argument that others who were not on the cover had a bad year isn't.
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BlueOnion
Footballguy
I was disproving the logic that someone having a bad year after a great year is some sort of anomaly. You want to show me an anomaly after someone has a great season, show me somebody that has had back-to-back great seasons, not another example of a player having a great season followed by a not-so-great season.corpcow said:
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corpcow
Footballguy
Uh, I think Shaun had a few good back-to-back seasons. Over 1,000 yards in all 4 years (and over 1,400 the last 3). Never less than 14 TDs. Never missed a game due to injury.The point is having a good year does not determine whether someone will have a good or bad year the following year. Logically speaking, last year's performance is irrelevant. The argument for the Madden Curse is that it seems to be more predictive of the next year's performance.
PatsWillWin
Footballguy
Can someone put together a list of the players who have been on the cover of Madden and how they did that season?
SlaX
Footballguy
Head Coach is a different game than Madden. That's like saying that Jeremy Shockey would have it for being on the cover of NFL Street 2 or Chad Johnson for being on NFL Street 3.It's certainly an odd coincidence, but one that cannot be explained.I voted no, but if it does I hope it doesn't extend to NFL Head Coach as Bill Cowher is on the cover...Pittsburgh United said:
SlaX
Footballguy
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BlueOnion
Footballguy
So Shaun had a couple good seasons before his great season. I fail to see how this shows players having a great season often follow it up with another great season.
a_rackowski
Footballguy
My Bad - I mean Playoffs.GRIDIRON ASSASSIN said:
jafo
Out of Mind
I think it has more to do with a player getting a lot of wear and tear, and having a good enough season to make the Madden cover. Since player X had a great season he makes the madden cover. Since player X had all the wear and tear the previous year, he breaks down as a result.
Kind of similar to backs that get a ton of carries in the previous season and then get hurt the following season. Injuries happen.
Kind of similar to backs that get a ton of carries in the previous season and then get hurt the following season. Injuries happen.
BlueOnion
Footballguy
I agree. Alexander's injury certainly does not appear to be a 'fluke' injury, such as something coming from a curse. However, Big Ben's off season injuries would be a better example of a 'curse' if such a curse existed.
GRIDIRON ASSASSIN
Footballguy
Eddie George was the cover boy of Madden 2001, which came out in the Fall of 2000.
Eddie George had his finest season that year:
1,962 combined yards rushing and receiving
Averaged 3.7 yards per carry
and had 16 touchdowns
Eddie George had his finest season that year:
1,962 combined yards rushing and receiving
Averaged 3.7 yards per carry
and had 16 touchdowns
GRIDIRON ASSASSIN
Footballguy
as was I... the Titans were the Super Bowl participant in January of 2000 (the same year Madden 2001 came out), but really it was the prior football season. But after the game came out, Eddie George had a career year.
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
Yes, but you haven't PROVED that it's anything more than coincidence.And it's not. Does anyone HONESTLY think that being on the cover of a freakin' video game really puts some voodoo hex on you?Honestly?Really??corpcow said:
Uhm. No. I wouldn't think twice. However, I would hope that there are a few credophiles that believe in superstitious curses picking in the draft ahead of me. Let them pass on a stud player because of irrational thinking; I'll be more than happy to pick that player up.
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Lauryn
Footballguy
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GRIDIRON ASSASSIN
Footballguy
GRIDIRON ASSASSIN
Footballguy
Alexander was REALLY doomed though, as he played on the losing team from the Super Bowl also.
They haven't made it back to the playoffs in several years.
Add the Madden cover into the mix...
He was toast.
They haven't made it back to the playoffs in several years.
Add the Madden cover into the mix...
He was toast.
Billy Bats
Footballguy
Kickers and punters only on Madden covers from here on out.
Frank Black
Footballguy
This is one of the most rational posts in this thread.It also amazes me how so many people around here attribute fantasy football success on their own "skill," and minimize the role of luck in FF. Yet, many of these same people believe in the concept of luck when it comes to something like a "curse."It is what it is said:
Frank Black
Footballguy
If you had the #3 pick in the draft, and LJ and LT were off the board, who else would you have drafted besides Alexander? Would you really feel comfortable drafting Barber or Manning at #3? The issue may be different when the Madden cover features a QB or WR, but when it features the consensus #2 or #3 RB, and he's there for you at pick #3, who else do you draft ahead of him.
Yes, it's quite clear that the fact that Eddie George bobbled a pass was entirely a result of the Madden Curse. I mean, I'm sure Eddie George had never before in his entire career bobbled a pass.We better hope that Peyton Manning doesn't make the cover of Madden 08, or he might throw an incompletion next season.a_rackowski said:
I might think twice, but I guarantee you that it would have nothing to do with the Madden Curse. There were legitimate risk-factors facing Shaun Alexander- his huge workload for two years running now, the loss of Steve Hutchinson, natural regression to the mean- but the "Madden Curse" wasn't one of them.
I disagree. That post isn't really that rational at all.You'd avoid Shaun Alexander because he'll miss a minimum of 2 games in 2006? *ALL RBS IN THE ENTIRE LEAGUE AVERAGE MORE THAN 2 MISSED GAMES A SEASON*! You're avoiding last year's league MVP because historically, superbowl RBs miss as many games as any other RB in the NFL might miss?
Judging from your post, superbowl RBs have missed an average of 3 games a season (even including Jamal Lewis, who missed the entire season). According to what I've read, the average NFL RB misses 2.4 games a season. You're going to have to do better than that, I'm afraid.
I promise you, it's nothing against you, I just argue a lot.It is what it is said:You were the same guy complaining about my Javon Walker projections for this year, right SSOG? Why all the hate?
Take a look at the the RB's who are much like Alexander on the list. These guys carry the ball alot, the duel threats (running & receiving backs) seem to have a little better luck on the list.
Dillon missed 4 games
SDavis missed 14 games
Lewis missed 16 games
TDavis missed 12 games
Anderson missed 14 games
Bottom line is I was correct in my prediction and analysis, like it or not.
I don't understand why it is so difficult for some to comprehend that more games and practices = more punishment and less recovery time.
Anyway, while you were correct that Shaun Alexander was likely to miss at least 2 games, I disagree that the reason was because he was in the superbowl. Correlation does not imply causation. If you look at all RBs who started 32 games in a 2-year span, do you know how many of them started the full 16 games the following year? 47.8%- less than half. Basically, if you simply said that every RB who hadn't missed a single game in the past two seasons was going to miss time this year, you'd be right more often than you were wrong, superbowl RB or not.Doug Drinen said it better than I ever could have. To paraphrase his conclusions here...The average RB who starts 16 games in one year will start 13.7 games the next season. Less than 50% will start a full 16-game slate.It is what it is said:
The average RB who starts 32 games over a two year span will start 14 games the next season. Less than 50% will start a full 16-game slate.
Looking at the population data you presented, it appears to me that Superbowl RBs are behaving more or less exactly like the RB population as a whole. About half of them are missing time, and all superbowl RBs combined are missing an average of about 3 games- just barely more than the average for all iron-men RBs, and pretty close to the average for all NFL RBs in general.
BrentBlack
Footballguy
100 people believe that putting someone on a cover of a video game causes them injury? WTF is wrong with people?
valhallan
Footballguy
I probably would have drafted Alexander. I said "might think twice", I didn't say the guy on the Madden cover shouldn't be drafted.
Two problems. First off, you complain about the inclusion of fullbacks on the list. The fullbacks actually *HELP YOUR ARGUEMENT*. Fullbacks suffer a DRASTICALLY lower injury rate than RBs, so if including those fullbacks does ANYTHING, it is only to skew the numbers and make RBs seem even more durable than they really are.Second off, and this is a huge one- you're looking at it retroactively. Yes, the top 20 RBs predominantly played a very heavy slate. *THAT'S WHY THEY WERE TOP 20 RBS!*. I mean, if they missed 8 games, odds are they were going to finish outside of the top 20. Saying after the fact that top 20 RBs didn't miss many games is akin to saying that RBs who had 350 carries didn't miss many games. No duh- if they missed a lot of games, they wouldn't have gotten 350+ carries, or they wouldn't have finished in the top 20. Why not point out that RBs who played in 16 games didn't miss many games, either, too!It is what it is said:
Let's look at the PRESEASON top-20 and see how many games each missed, shall we? All ADP info comes from here.
PRESEASON top-20:
1. RB LaDainian Tomlinson, SD/10- 16 games played
2. RB Shaun Alexander, Sea/8- 16 games played
3. RB Priest Holmes, KC/5- 7 games played
4. RB Edgerrin James, Ind/8- 15 games played
6. RB Willis McGahee, Buf/9- 16 games played
7. RB Deuce McAllister, NO/10- 5 games played
8. RB Domanick Davis, Hou/3- 11 games played
9. RB Clinton Portis, Was/3- 16 games played
10. RB Jamal Lewis, Bal/3- 15 games played
11. RB Corey Dillon, NE/7- 12 games played
12. RB Kevin Jones, Det/3- 13 games played
15. RB Julius Jones, Dal/9- 13 games played
16. RB Ahman Green, GB/6- 5 games played
17. RB Tiki Barber, NYG/5- 16 games played
18. RB Rudi Johnson, Cin/10- 16 games played
20. RB Curtis Martin, NYJ/8- 12 games played
21. RB Brian Westbrook, Phi/6- 12 games played
24. RB Steven Jackson, StL/9- 15 games played
26. RB LaMont Jordan, Oak/5- 14 games played
34. RB Carnell Williams, TB/7- 14 games played
A whopping 14 of the 20 RBs (70%) missed time. 11 missed two games or more (that's 55%). All 20 RBs combined to average 12.95 games played (which means over 3 games missed per RB).
I agree with your assertion that RBs with a heavy workload tend to miss more time over the following season. I *DISAGREE* with your assertion that RBs who go to the superbowl tend to miss more time over the following season- if anything, the SB RBs have averaged just as many missed games as the average RB did last season, anyway.
Would you call this a fair and representative sample? Because if not, I can pull the ADP from 2004, 2003, or 2002, too, to prove to you that if an RB is rated in the preseason top 20, the odds are better than 50% that he'll miss time, and that all top-20 RBs average 2.5+ games missed per year.
Again, I do not disagree with the assertion that RBs with a high percentage of the workload tend to miss more time, but I *DISAGREE COMPLETELY* with the assertion that SB RBs tend to miss time. Superbowl RBs have historically missed exactly the same amount of time as all other RBs- which is remarkable, since SB RBs were actually more likely to have a heavy workload than the rest of the RBs. If anything, this suggests that maybe SB RBs are actually just a hair *MORE* durable than their non-SB brethren.Anyway, if this whole high workload thing scared you off of Alexander, it must have scared you off of Tomlinson, too. Alexander had 448, 392, and 389 touches over the last 3 years (1229 total). Over that same span, Tomlinson has put up 390, 427, and 413 touches (1230 total). Tomlinson has just as much wear on him (in one fewer game), and has already had problems with nagging injuries, but I didn't see you calling *HIM* an injury risk this preseason.It is what it is said:Lastly SSOG, I can offer this if you still have any doubts.
Ask any NFL RB if the extra games and practices leading up to the Super Bowl creates more punishment to his body and gives him less time to heal during the offseason in comparison to other NFL RB's. If you can find just 1 RB who disagrees with this, please let us all know.
There is no doubt a correlation to Super Bowl RB's carrying a heavy load and getting injured the following year. It has now happened 8 years in a row, including Shaun Alexander this year.
Thats pretty convincing, although the Eddie George argument is a stretch(all players will eventually fall off. He was fine that year).Barry Sanders
The first NFL player to be on a Madden NFL cover was Barry Sanders in 1999, for Madden 2000. He shared the cover with the then-customary picture of John Madden. However, a week before training camp began in 1999, Sanders abruptly retired - ending his career and leaving the Detroit Lions without their star running back of the previous 10 years. Sanders' part in the curse is debated because he is not pictured alone on the box, and he had willingly retired.
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Dorsey Levens
Dorsey Levens was also featured on the 2000 cover, but that version of the game is much less common. He was cut by the Green Bay Packers in 2001, and finished his career in 2004.
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Eddie George
Eddie George, then of the Tennessee Titans, who graced the 2001 box, was the second 'cursed' player. Although he had the best year of his career, rushing for 1,509 yards, catching 50 passes for 453 yards and scoring 16 total touchdowns, he was cursed by bobbling a pass in the playoffs. The pass was then intercepted by Baltimore Ravens linebacker Ray Lewis, who returned the ball for a touchdown. George, (up until then) known for his durability, would also get injured the following season. After regularly averaging nearly 4 yards per carry in his first five seasons and rushing for over 1,300 yards in each one, he averaged only 3 yards per carry and rushed for career lows of 939 yards and 5 touchdowns in the 2001 season. For the rest of his career, he never averaged more than 3.5 yards per carry, but did rush for over 1,000 yards twice and scored 14 touchdowns in 2002.
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Daunte Culpepper
Former Minnesota Vikings star quarterback Daunte Culpepper appeared on the 2002 cover, and the Vikings struggled to a 4-7 record until Culpepper was shelved with a season-ending knee injury.
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Marshall Faulk
Running back Marshall Faulk of the St. Louis Rams, who was on the 2003 box, suffered an injury and had a bad season overall. He never broke through the 1,000 yards rushing mark for the rest of his career.
[edit]
Michael Vick
Very shortly after Madden 2004 was released featuring Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Vick on the cover, Vick was injured during a preseason game, suffering a fractured right fibula. Vick played in only the last 5 regular season games, finishing with only 585 yards passing and 4 touchdowns. The Atlanta Falcons missed the playoffs and were already out of contention by the time Vick returned from his injury. They finished the season with 5 wins and 11 losses, a stark contrast to the team's 9-6-1 record the season prior.
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Ray Lewis
Madden 2005 featured Ray Lewis of the Baltimore Ravens. He had an injury that kept him out of the last game of the regular season. It was also Lewis' first season without a single interception, after posting a career-high 6 the previous year. The Baltimore Ravens also failed to make the playoffs that season (2004), after winning their division the year before. Furthermore, in Week 6 the following year, Ray Lewis' season was ended by an injury. [2]
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Donovan McNabb
The Philadelphia Eagles' star quarterback Donovan McNabb was on the cover of Madden NFL 06. Prior to the 2005 season, McNabb had a highly-publicized feud with his teammate, wide receiver Terrell Owens (who was, coincidentally, the cover athlete for rival Sega Sports' ESPN NFL 2K5, though no "Curse" had been associated with that series of games and won't be, since EA purchased exclusive rights to the NFLPA, thereby eliminating any NFL-based competition). Also, in the first game of the regular season, McNabb took a hit to the chest from the helmet of Atlanta Falcons defensive tackle Chad Lavalais. After the game, it was revealed that McNabb had a 'sports hernia' [3] that needed surgery. Refusing to have the required season-ending surgery while the Eagles (who had made the Super Bowl the previous season) still had a chance to make the playoffs, McNabb played in discomfort and pain throughout the season. In the tenth game of the season, McNabb re-injured his groin when shoved to the ground by Dallas linebacker Bradie James while McNabb was attempting to tackle Dallas Cowboys defensive back Roy Williams, who was returning an interception for an eventual game-winning touchdown. McNabb did play the next series but was ineffective and then decided to pack it in for the rest of the season. On November 21, 2005, McNabb, on the advice of his doctors, opted to have season-ending surgery for his sports hernia; the Eagles had been eliminated from playoff contention and finished the year with a 6-10 record. [4] [5]
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Shaun Alexander
The Seattle Seahawks star running back was on the cover of Madden NFL 07. He bruised a bone in his left foot in the Seahawks first game of the 2006 season against the Detroit Lions. He continued to play on the injury until the third week of the season, when against the New York Giants it worsened to a nondisplaced fracture in the foot. At this time, he is expected to miss an undertermined number of games.[3]
The list isn't ridiculous. It has its flaws, but Drinin was very up-front about those flaws. It's not like he compiled the list by hand- he did a data dump from a database and ran the numbers. Obviously, he had to provide some parameters to get the data he got- his parameters were 5 fantasy points per game. I have no problem with those parameters, so I have no problem using that list. If you have a problem with those parameters, come up with your own parameters and run the numbers again.Just *DON'T* give provide a hindsight list of 16 game RBs. Saying that the top 20 RBs tended to be durable is sort of like saying that the people in jail tend to be criminals- no duh. That's why they're in the top 20 list, and that's why they're in jail. We aren't talking about a DESCRIPTIVE list here, though... we're talking about a PREDICTIVE list. You were trying to PREDICT Alexander's injury based on data, so the burden on you is to provide RBs who fit a similar criteria before the season and to observe what happens during the season- not to cherry-pick your list after the season is already over and then collect the data.It is what it is said:
I'm not twisting anything around.First off, if most were predicting Holmes' injury troubles would continue, then why was he being taken with a top-3 selection?It is what it is said:Now you are just completely twisting this around, too funny.
First off, most were predicting Holmes injury troubles to continue in the preseason. Why do you think Larry Johnson his backup was going in round 5?
Also you conveniently list both Dillon and Westbrook. Once again, both were Super Bowl RB's who got injured the following year. And you completely ignore (of course) Gruden's mishandling of Cadillac and Dom Davis' injury history that I spoke of. Finally how about researching the amount of touches CuMart, Deuce and Ahman had the previous year?
Anyway, I give you credit for completely avoiding my valid points and historical data proving Super Bowl RB's get injured the following season, and turning this into something else completely. Way to avoid your initial post disagreeing with mine
Second, go ahead and remove Dillon and Westbrook from the study. I was trying to get a picture of *ALL NFL RBS*, not *ALL NON-SUPERBOWL RBS*, so I feel fine leaving them in. If you want to get a picture of all non-superbowl RBs, take them out. You still had 66.6% of RBs who missed time, and 50% of RBs who missed 2 games or more.
Third off, I didn't ignore Gruden's mishandling of Cadillac or DomDavis's injury history. Those weren't relevant to the study. The point was that Superbowl RBs are not significantly more injury prone than non-superbowl RBs. The point *WAS NOT* that Superbowl RBs are not significantly more injury prone than non-superbowl RBs with no prior injury history and head coaches who refuse to overwork them. Eliminating data points for no valid reason is known as approaching the data with an agenda. That's massaging the data to say what you want it to say- basically, turning the data from cold hard data to objective, biased data with a sample that you deliberately skewed to get results you agreed with... and here you are accusing *ME* of using misleading data?
Fourth off, I wouldn't mind at all researching the number of touches CuMart, Deuce, and Ahman had in the previous year (for the record, they averaged 338 total combined touches between the three of them, which is actually a pretty normal workload for a starting RB). However, how many touches they had is IRRELEVANT. Your claim is that Superbowl RBs do worse than non-Superbowl RBs. The only variable that matters here is whether or not they made the superbowl. If your point was that high-carry RBs do worse than low-carry RBs, I would not disagree in the slightest- I've made exactly the same point several times.
Fifth off, I haven't avoided any points you've made, your arguements are just all over the map. First you say that playing in the superbowl makes an RB more likely to get injured than the average RB (I already addressed that issue- SB RBs miss, on average, just as many games as everyone else). Then you say that a high workload is what makes an RB more likely to get injured (I don't disagree with that point at all- historically, RBs with high workloads tend to get dinged up more). Then you say that, since Superbowl RBs tend to have high workloads, the fact that they were in the superbowl indicates they're more likely to get dinged up- I disagree with that. Correlation does not imply causation. There is a correlation between SB RBs and missing time, but the causal relationship, in my mind, is between the lurking variable here (workload) and missing time.
You can say that by arguing that SB RBs miss time, you're really arguing that high-workload RBs miss time, but I would disagree with that. If anything, I wouldn't be surprised if it turned out that SB RBs with a high workload actually missed *LESS TIME*, on average, than non-SB RBs with a comparably high workload (and likewise if SB RBs with a low workload missed less time than non-SB RBs with a comparably low workload).
In my experience, trying to make yourself come off as smarter than the other person by insinuating that you need to use smaller words or speak more slowly is generally a crass move that just makes you look bad in the end. I would wager that I have more of a statistical background than you do, and that anyone else with a statistical background would verify that my dataset and results were more statistically valid than yours. Let's keep the personal attacks to a minimum here.Anyway, if you want to demonstrate that SB RBs miss more time than non-SB RBs with a comparable workload, you're going to have to provide a historical study comparing the two groups. I mean, if you want to compare Group A to Group B, just compare the two, don't go around comparing Group A (SB RBs) to Group C (top-20 RBs) and then saying that that somehow makes your point.It is what it is said:Again too funny with the twisting on your end, nice try. Once again it is the extra games and punishment that Alexander and the Super Bowl RB's take, versus the lack of recovery time they get in comparison to the Tomlinson's. Which is why Tomlinson was the #2 rated RB this year on our site, while Alexander was the #5 rated RB on our site. It has to do with more games and practices = more hits and punishment taken. And less recovery time. A RB can carry a heavy load for awhile, see Corey Dillon with the Bengals. But a RB cannot carry a heavy load deep into the postseason for awhile, see Corey Dillon with the Patriots. See Marshall Faulk with the Colts, see Marshall Faulk with the Rams. etc ect, plenty more examples already provided here for you.
I already have. According to the data that you provided, the RBs who took part in the superbowl missed an average of 3 games in the following season. According to the data that I provided, all starting NFL RBs missed an average of 3 games in the following season.Perhaps you should take all of this time that you're currently spending waiting, and instead use it re-reading my previous posts in this thread.Finally, you have not proven your claim of Super Bowl RB's missing the exact same amount of time as all other RB's. When are you gonna show the data on this one SSOG? Still waiting...
S. Jackson if I couldn't trade down. May not turn out to be the right decision, but I had him ranked higher.
Here, since I'm such a nice guy, I'll even give you the data to get you started. Here's a list of every RB who received 350 carries prior to 2005, as well as how they fared the next season.
Code:
Games Games Carries CarriesName Year Age Exp (year n) (n+1) (year n) (n+1)Curtis Martin 2004 31 10 16 12 371 220Rudi Johnson 2004 25 3 16 16 361 337Shaun Alexander 2004 27 5 16 16 353 370Ricky Williams 2003 26 5 16 0 392 0Jamal Lewis 2003 24 4 16 12 387 235Ahman Green 2003 26 6 16 15 355 259Deuce McAllister 2003 25 3 16 14 351 269Ricky Williams 2002 25 4 16 16 383 392LaDainian Tomlinson 2002 23 2 16 16 372 313Stephen Davis 2001 27 6 16 12 356 207Eddie George 2000 27 5 16 16 403 315Edgerrin James 2000 22 2 16 6 387 151Jerome Bettis 2000 28 8 16 11 355 225Edgerrin James 1999 21 1 16 16 369 387Curtis Martin 1999 26 5 16 16 367 316Jamal Anderson 1998 26 5 16 2 410 19Terrell Davis 1998 26 4 16 4 392 67Curtis Martin 1998 25 4 15 16 369 367Jerome Bettis 1997 25 5 15 15 375 316Terrell Davis 1997 25 3 15 16 369 392Eddie George 1997 24 2 16 16 357 348Ricky Watters 1996 27 5 16 16 353 285Emmitt Smith 1995 26 6 16 15 377 327Curtis Martin 1995 22 1 16 16 368 316Emmitt Smith 1994 25 5 15 16 368 377Thurman Thomas 1993 27 6 16 15 355 287Barry Foster 1992 24 3 16 9 390 177Emmitt Smith 1992 23 3 16 14 373 283Emmitt Smith 1991 22 2 16 16 365 373Christian Okoye 1989 28 3 15 14 370 245Eric Dickerson 1988 28 6 16 15 388 314Herschel Walker 1988 26 3 16 5 361 81Eric Dickerson 1986 26 4 16 9 404 223Gerald Riggs 1985 25 4 16 16 397 343Marcus Allen 1985 25 4 16 13 380 208James Wilder 1985 27 5 16 12 365 190James Wilder 1984 26 4 16 16 407 365Walter Payton 1984 30 10 16 16 381 324Eric Dickerson 1984 24 2 16 14 379 292Gerald Riggs 1984 24 3 15 16 353 397Eric Dickerson 1983 23 1 16 16 390 379John Riggins 1983 34 13 15 14 375 327George Rogers 1981 23 1 15 6 378 122Earl Campbell 1981 26 4 16 9 361 157Earl Campbell 1980 25 3 15 16 373 361Walter Payton 1979 25 5 16 16 369 317Earl Campbell 1979 24 2 16 15 368 373Averages: 25.5 4.3 15.8 13.1 374.1 275.5Dude, again, I've *ALREADY PROVIDED MY DATA*. You know, the post where I showed that *ALL NFL RBS TEND TO MISS 3 GAMES IN ANY GIVEN YEAR*?Sorry for the all caps, but I have to shout because it seems like you missed this point when I pointed out the past three times that I've already provided my data.It is what it is said:A still waiting for SSOG's proof bump. Show me the money SSOG! I mean show me the data SSOG!It is what it is said:Again too funny with the twisting on your end, nice tryAgain, I do not disagree with the assertion that RBs with a high percentage of the workload tend to miss more time, but I *DISAGREE COMPLETELY* with the assertion that SB RBs tend to miss time. Superbowl RBs have historically missed exactly the same amount of time as all other RBs- which is remarkable, since SB RBs were actually more likely to have a heavy workload than the rest of the RBs. If anything, this suggests that maybe SB RBs are actually just a hair *MORE* durable than their non-SB brethren.Anyway, if this whole high workload thing scared you off of Alexander, it must have scared you off of Tomlinson, too. Alexander had 448, 392, and 389 touches over the last 3 years (1229 total). Over that same span, Tomlinson has put up 390, 427, and 413 touches (1230 total). Tomlinson has just as much wear on him (in one fewer game), and has already had problems with nagging injuries, but I didn't see you calling *HIM* an injury risk this preseason.It is what it is said:Lastly SSOG, I can offer this if you still have any doubts.
Ask any NFL RB if the extra games and practices leading up to the Super Bowl creates more punishment to his body and gives him less time to heal during the offseason in comparison to other NFL RB's. If you can find just 1 RB who disagrees with this, please let us all know.
There is no doubt a correlation to Super Bowl RB's carrying a heavy load and getting injured the following year. It has now happened 8 years in a row, including Shaun Alexander this year.
Finally, you have not proven your claim of Super Bowl RB's missing the exact same amount of time as all other RB's. When are you gonna show the data on this one SSOG? Still waiting...
Anyway, your original point was that SB RBs are more likely to get injured than non-SB RBs. I'm quite simply saying that if you have a SB RB who had 400 touches last season, and a non-SB RB who had 400 touches last season, neither is more likely to face an injury or miss time in year n+1 than the other.
corpcow
Footballguy
I never said it proved anything. I was simply pointing out the flawed logic in showing other people who also had bad seasons.
corpcow
Footballguy
I think Koenen was on the cover in some alternate universe.
corpcow
Footballguy
I don't know what your definition of "great" is, but for me 1866 yards from scrimmage and 20 total TDs would qualify. In fact, all of his previous 4 years were pretty "great".2005: 1958 total yards, 28 TDs2004: 1866 total yards, 20 TDs2003: 1730 total yards, 16 TDs2002: 1635 total yards, 18 TDsNow, I pointed this out in the first place because you used the examples of other people not on the Madden cover who are having bad years after great years - something I said was irrelevant.So Shaun had a couple good seasons before his great season. I fail to see how this shows players having a great season often follow it up with another great season.
No, having a bad year after a great year is not an anomaly - but it sure seems that players on the cover of madden are MORE LIKELY to go from great to "bad". So, in that sense, the Alexander example is an excellent one - 4 great seasons in production and being healthy, then he's on the cover, struggles, and is injured. You still haven't disproven anything.
Frank Black
Footballguy
Fair enough. Also, I don't mean to single you out. When I say "you" I really mean "you" as in everyone. Who else would anyone draft in a redraft at #3 besides SA, if LJ and LT were already gone?
My ears started burning...First of all, I don't have a "favor." Why would I care how this study comes out? I ran some numbers to see what would happen.It is what it is said:
Now, I wrote that article more than 5 years ago. If I had it to do over again, there are some things I would change. You're right that the 6 fantasy points per game condition probably does not focus on the guys that we want to focus on.
SSOG said this:
And he cited my study as evidence. You pointed out a flaw in the study. So let me correct that flaw and re-run it. I looked at all running backs from 1988--2004 who finished in the top 10 in fantasy points and played 16 games. No Lars Tates here. I also threw out the guys who retired (Sanders, Robert Smith, Ricky Williams). The remaining 127 players averaged 13.6 games played the next year. Less than 50% (62 of the 127) played a full 16-game slate the next season.So, while you were correct to point out the flaw in the study, the results of the study remain exactly the same when that flaw is removed. And really, that's not terribly surprising.
Data:
Code:
Name Top10Yr NextYrG----------------------------------Karim Abdul-Jabbar 1996 16Karim Abdul-Jabbar 1997 15Shaun Alexander 2001 16Shaun Alexander 2002 16Shaun Alexander 2003 16Shaun Alexander 2004 16Marcus Allen 1993 13Terry Allen 1992 0Terry Allen 1995 16Terry Allen 1996 10Jamal Anderson 1996 16Jamal Anderson 1997 16Jamal Anderson 1998 2Neal Anderson 1988 16Neal Anderson 1989 15Ottis Anderson 1989 16Tiki Barber 2002 16Tiki Barber 2004 16Greg Bell 1988 16Greg Bell 1989 6Edgar Bennett 1994 16Edgar Bennett 1995 16Jerome Bettis 1993 16Jerome Bettis 1996 15James Brooks 1989 16James Brooks 1990 15Gary Brown 1993 12Earnest Byner 1990 16Earnest Byner 1991 16Roger Craig 1988 16Roger Craig 1989 11Stephen Davis 2001 12Terrell Davis 1996 15Terrell Davis 1998 4Robert Delpino 1991 10Eric Dickerson 1988 15Corey Dillon 1997 15Corey Dillon 2001 16Robert Edwards 1998 0Marshall Faulk 1994 16Marshall Faulk 1995 13Marshall Faulk 1997 16Marshall Faulk 1998 16Marshall Faulk 1999 14Derrick Fenner 1990 11Barry Foster 1992 9Charlie Garner 1999 16Charlie Garner 2000 16Charlie Garner 2002 14Cleveland Gary 1992 15Eddie George 1996 16Eddie George 1999 16Eddie George 2000 16Eddie George 2002 16Ahman Green 2000 16Ahman Green 2001 14Ahman Green 2003 15Rodney Hampton 1992 12Garrison Hearst 1998 0Travis Henry 2002 15Dalton Hilliard 1989 6Leroy Hoard 1994 12Priest Holmes 2001 14Priest Holmes 2003 8Edgerrin James 1999 16Edgerrin James 2000 6Edgerrin James 2004 15Rudi Johnson 2004 16Napoleon Kaufman 1997 13Terry Kirby 1993 4Dorsey Levens 1997 7Jamal Lewis 2003 12Derek Loville 1995 12Curtis Martin 1995 16Curtis Martin 1996 13Curtis Martin 1999 16Curtis Martin 2000 16Curtis Martin 2001 16Curtis Martin 2004 12Deuce McAllister 2003 14Willis McGahee 2004 16Natrone Means 1994 10Erric Pegram 1993 13Clinton Portis 2002 13Leonard Russell 1993 14Barry Sanders 1990 15Barry Sanders 1992 11Barry Sanders 1994 16Barry Sanders 1995 16Barry Sanders 1996 16Barry Sanders 1997 16John Settle 1988 15Antowain Smith 2001 16Emmitt Smith 1990 16Emmitt Smith 1991 16Emmitt Smith 1992 14Emmitt Smith 1995 15Emmitt Smith 1998 15Duce Staley 1999 5Fred Taylor 2003 14Thurman Thomas 1989 16Thurman Thomas 1990 15Thurman Thomas 1992 16Thurman Thomas 1993 15LaDainian Tomlinson 2001 16LaDainian Tomlinson 2002 16LaDainian Tomlinson 2003 15Herschel Walker 1988 16Herschel Walker 1992 16Curt Warner 1988 16Chris Warren 1994 16Chris Warren 1995 14Ricky Watters 1994 16Ricky Watters 1995 16Ricky Watters 1996 16Ricky Watters 1997 16Ricky Watters 1998 16Ricky Watters 1999 16Ricky Watters 2000 5Lorenzo White 1990 13Lorenzo White 1992 8Harvey Williams 1994 16Harvey Williams 1995 13John Williams 1988 15Ricky Williams 2001 16Ricky Williams 2002 16Ickey Woods 1988 2
Limp Ditka
Footballguy
This will be my favorite post of the year. It is full of irony when it comes from the king of using the
It is what it is said:
The new list includes only top 10 fantasy performers. There are no fullbacks or special-teamers on it.
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