switz
Footballguy
The bolded part is where your analysis breaks down...Felix is not a scatback, gadget player... just because he's shifty and fast doesn't mean he's a mere COP. Otherwise ADP would be a COP as well.
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Marion Barber (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Katism
- Start date
People wondering why Marion Barber split time the last few years, if he is as talented as some say, should consider that when he was drafted Julius Jones was a pretty decent up and coming runningback.
In 8 games in '05 Julius Jones had over 800 yards rushing... I'm sure we all remember the draft hype the next year... so isn't it entirely possible that the cowboys just took a few years to realize which up and coming back was better? If you've got a 23 year old back averaging 100 yards a game, you might think you have something...
In 8 games in '05 Julius Jones had over 800 yards rushing... I'm sure we all remember the draft hype the next year... so isn't it entirely possible that the cowboys just took a few years to realize which up and coming back was better? If you've got a 23 year old back averaging 100 yards a game, you might think you have something...
baconisgood
Footballguy
JJ wasn't a horrible RB until last year when he averaged 3.6 y/c for a team that averaged 4.2, the previous year he averaged 4.1 for a team that average 4.1. As it became apparent that Julius stunk Barber's touches increased. He touched the ball 15.8 times per game in the first 8 games and 17.6 in the last 5 before the Cowboys had the division sewn up (he had 7, 25 and 7 touches the last 3 games). If you look at the splits at week 6 you get 14 touches per game for the first 6 and 18.6 game for the last 7. Using these for his averages for the whole year you get 282- 298 for a 16 game season. Yeah, if the Cowboys are 12-1 with the division and home field advantage in hand it could suck with Marion in the playoffs, but in the game to lock up home field he had 25 touches and julius had 10. Overall I would expect his touches to be at least in the 17.5-18.5 range that it was toward the end of last year, and that would still leave around 12 touches a game for Felix.
switz
Footballguy
Historically Barber hasn't really been that productive on his runs past carry #15 or #16. It doesn't mean he can't break a decent run on carry #20, just that in the limited work he's had in games with 16+ carries, those extra carries haven't really been productive. Add to that his terrible second half in the playoffs, it doesn't make sense for the Cowboys to run him 20 times a game as Barber supporters are hoping.Give him 15-18 carries and he'll be very productive. But use the other 12 or so for Jones & Choice, otherwise as the season goes on, Barber will wear down.I have him at around 250 carries on the season which is a little over 15.5 per game. I can see it going a bit higher than that at this point, up to about 270 (@17/game), but I do see games where Barber gets 12-13 carries and that's it. With 270 carries even, I just don't see him being a top-5 FF RB.
Ridgelake
Footballguy
I generally agree with Switz' analysis. His projected # of runs also corresponds with the FBG projections which is 235/1058/12 for runs. This is the area that I'd expect him to be in.
Where I believe we'll see a difference is in his catches. FBG projects 44 catches. This is where I think Felix will cut into Barber's work. Felix, by numerous accounts coming out of camp, is an exceptional receiver. Dallas is going to get him the ball in space. Some of those catches will come at the expense of Barber. I expect Barber to only get about 25 receptions this upcoming year.
Lets talk about Felix a touch more. Many people noticed that he didn't play in the first half of the Houston game, when the starters were in. I asked myself the question "Why"? At first, I took it to be that Dallas was not beleiving in Felix. Then I realized that they don't want to show the league how they really plan to use him. And thats with both Barber and Felix in the game at once. Why give the league film on your new stuff in a meaningless game? So Barber got the work in the first half.
One thing that I have learned in the pre-season is that Felix can pass block respectively well. This will enable Dallas to use him as a third down back, saving Barber. As Switz said, Barber is most effective upto about 15 touches. Felix is showing the skills necessary to enable Dallas to limit Barber's touches.
So you still question that Felix will be an integral part of the offense? We got a big clue that Dallas really does plan on extensive use for Felix in the offense. Wade stated in press conferences that he didnt want to put Felix on kickoff returns because its such an injury risk position. Wade only wants to use backups on kickoff returns, not mainstream guys. Thats why Miles Austin and Isaiah Stanback were returning kicks. Not because they are better at it than Felix. But because they are less needed on offense. Once those 2 guys got hurt, you'd think Felix would be up next. Nope, Dallas is working reserve DBs Jenkins and Scandrick at KR now. Not the more talented Felix or Pacman.
Dallas plans on using Felix a lot in the offense. And some of those touches will come from Barber (and Witten too I believe). So do I believe Barber is worth the #3 pick? No I don't. I think he'll put up similar numbers to last year, at least in the run categories. I don't think he'll see quite as many catches though. This would still make him a top 10 back in any scoring system, and probably a top 5 in a non-ppr. Barber is going to get the touchdowns.
And in case you're wondering, I made sure I got Felix in my money league.
Where I believe we'll see a difference is in his catches. FBG projects 44 catches. This is where I think Felix will cut into Barber's work. Felix, by numerous accounts coming out of camp, is an exceptional receiver. Dallas is going to get him the ball in space. Some of those catches will come at the expense of Barber. I expect Barber to only get about 25 receptions this upcoming year.
Lets talk about Felix a touch more. Many people noticed that he didn't play in the first half of the Houston game, when the starters were in. I asked myself the question "Why"? At first, I took it to be that Dallas was not beleiving in Felix. Then I realized that they don't want to show the league how they really plan to use him. And thats with both Barber and Felix in the game at once. Why give the league film on your new stuff in a meaningless game? So Barber got the work in the first half.
One thing that I have learned in the pre-season is that Felix can pass block respectively well. This will enable Dallas to use him as a third down back, saving Barber. As Switz said, Barber is most effective upto about 15 touches. Felix is showing the skills necessary to enable Dallas to limit Barber's touches.
So you still question that Felix will be an integral part of the offense? We got a big clue that Dallas really does plan on extensive use for Felix in the offense. Wade stated in press conferences that he didnt want to put Felix on kickoff returns because its such an injury risk position. Wade only wants to use backups on kickoff returns, not mainstream guys. Thats why Miles Austin and Isaiah Stanback were returning kicks. Not because they are better at it than Felix. But because they are less needed on offense. Once those 2 guys got hurt, you'd think Felix would be up next. Nope, Dallas is working reserve DBs Jenkins and Scandrick at KR now. Not the more talented Felix or Pacman.
Dallas plans on using Felix a lot in the offense. And some of those touches will come from Barber (and Witten too I believe). So do I believe Barber is worth the #3 pick? No I don't. I think he'll put up similar numbers to last year, at least in the run categories. I don't think he'll see quite as many catches though. This would still make him a top 10 back in any scoring system, and probably a top 5 in a non-ppr. Barber is going to get the touchdowns.
And in case you're wondering, I made sure I got Felix in my money league.
baconisgood
Footballguy
Runs past 15 or 16 or touches?
switz
Footballguy
Specifically carries, not touches. ESPN used to have the rush attempts splits in increments of 5, now they just have 10+, sigh. IIRC, his career average on 16+ carries was around 2.2. I had posted it somewhere else on here, I'll see if I can dig it up, or find another source.
baconisgood
Footballguy
Well then we are pretty much in agreement. he average nearly 3 receptions a game last year + 15 carries = 18 touches.
Warehouse Nasty
Footballguy
Fair enough. For the record, you're very much in the majority with your opinions of him not being top 5. Most have him around 7-8.I don't have a subscription, so I can only go by the regular staff posters in here, and at least the ones I've seen all have him ranked top-5ish... or seem to support that stand - Pasquino, Wimer, Woodrow, Bloom, LammeyWarehouse Nasty said:Dude,The lemmings in here are the ones rating Barber 3-5.I haven't looked at an FF mag, I have no idea where he's ranked in them, but I've seen almost unanimous ranking of Barber in the top-5 by FBG staff. For people on this forum, Barber in the top-5 is the "norm" - it's the guys who have him outside the top-5 that are going a different direction and not following the crowd.
HAve you created an alternate world for yourself here? 20% of staffers have him in the top 5 in non-PPR and 10% of staffers have him in top 5 in PPR. I'm not saying your thoughts are wrong but there are FAR more people in agreement wiht you than against you...
Dragon1952
Footballguy
This is my first attempt at fantasy sports (friendly 10 team, non-PPR money league) but I've been a big fan forever, and like to do a little wagering even. I practiced for 3 weeks at all positions on mock drafts not knowing what position I'd have. I ended up with pick #3, of course <_< . On all the mock drafts I'd done I picked Westbrook here...in fact I even picked him at pick 2 a couple times. So what do I do at draft time? LT goes 1st, Peterson 2nd, ......I sit there and look and look and look and finally say screw it and pick Barber. This was an online draft and I'm sure everyone was laughing at the rookie, but I really believe he will be, at minimum, the equal of Westbrook, Addai, Jackson, Portis, etc.....and I believe there is a very good possibility that he exceeds them all. Like someone said, would you really be that astonished if he got 20 TD's? I think he's the one, out of that remaining group, I'd be least astonished to see do so. But I feel a lot better after reading this thread because there are obviously many others who feel that taking him at #3 isn't all that crazy. So, thank you! :(
I agree with you Dragon. I was almost in the same position as you. I had the 4th pick and the three before me were LT,ADP, and Brady and I also believe Barber will outperform all the other RBs that I considered taking or that are favored to be taken before him ( Westy, Gore, SJax, Portis, etc.).
thecardiackid
Footballguy
First off Dragon, welcome to 'the pool'. I'm impressed with the fact that aside from being new to FF and finding this place, you had the stones to go w/ your gut and pick the guy you like. Even if it was considered a little early.It sounds like you did your (mock draft) homework, and the aside from trying to grab the BPA (best player available) early and often - I'm sure you'll find that FF leagues are typically won with solid prognosticating and getting value in the mid/late rounds. Worst case for injury coverage or trade value mid-season. First rounders generally don't win championships, but they can lose them if your guy underperforms significantly.My advise (for the future) would be that if you like/target someone like MBIII and your pick is early (vs. ADP) - try to trade down a couple of slots for a bump in later round(s). i.e. move down to the 6th or 7th pick where you can still get him in the first in exchange for swapping your 4th for a 3rd later in the draft. Maybe the league is new enough where that would be tough, but it never hurts to try. You never know what the guy w/ those picks is thinking.I grabbed MBIII @ the #5 pick in a 14 team (non PPR) redraft over SJax and Addai, so I'm a believer. Hopefully I don't regret it. IMO he's a safer pick vs. STL's offense and Addai w/ a rough schedule and possibly getting rested during the FF playoffs.This is my first attempt at fantasy sports (friendly 10 team, non-PPR money league) but I've been a big fan forever, and like to do a little wagering even. I practiced for 3 weeks at all positions on mock drafts not knowing what position I'd have. I ended up with pick #3, of course. On all the mock drafts I'd done I picked Westbrook here...in fact I even picked him at pick 2 a couple times. So what do I do at draft time? LT goes 1st, Peterson 2nd, ......I sit there and look and look and look and finally say screw it and pick Barber. This was an online draft and I'm sure everyone was laughing at the rookie, but I really believe he will be, at minimum, the equal of Westbrook, Addai, Jackson, Portis, etc.....and I believe there is a very good possibility that he exceeds them all. Like someone said, would you really be that astonished if he got 20 TD's? I think he's the one, out of that remaining group, I'd be least astonished to see do so. But I feel a lot better after reading this thread because there are obviously many others who feel that taking him at #3 isn't all that crazy. So, thank you!
Dragon1952
Footballguy
Thanks for the welcome and I appreciate the kind words and support guys I was in the IT/computer field for 30 yrs, and I've been into the wagering aspect for about 7 yrs, so if there's one thing I'm good at it's researching things on the net. This looks like the place, for sure. 
I was in the IT/computer field for 30 yrs, and I've been into the wagering aspect for about 7 yrs, so if there's one thing I'm good at it's researching things on the net. This looks like the place, for sure. 
Gbagzz
Footballguy
That's b/c the FBG staff has just as much access as the rest of us. They read the papers, listen to the news and watch ESPN/NFL Network, etc...Do your own research and you won't get crazed by their ignorant opinions b/c in the end their opinion is just as ignorant as yours.Go with your gut kid
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
LT and ADP are 1 and 2... W/ Westy's Injury History and the Colts O-line taking some Hits... I couldn't kill anyone that Took MBIII at #3.
I still have Westy over him in redraft.
LT
ADP
Westy
MBIII
Addai
Portis
I still have Westy over him in redraft.
LT
ADP
Westy
MBIII
Addai
Portis
Neil Beaufort Zod
Footballguy
If Jerry Jones asks Wade Phillips anything, the response better be "That's exactly what it looks like, boss."
oddball
Smart
Jerry has never been one to surround himself with 'yes' drones.
Routilla
Footballguy
schooner44
Footballguy
I grabbed MBIII as the 7th RB taken in my main money league and felt ok about the pick. This was before I saw the 5 min drill projecting him as #3. Even after seeing it, I still had my doubts for him being at #3. Right now, I'm loving the pick and with him paired up with Turner, I'm very satisfied with my starting RB duo.
Dragon1952
Footballguy
I took Barber at #3, and although I am pretty satisfied so far, if I had to do it over again I probably would have gone with the obvious pick of Westbrook. Actually, if neither one gets hurt I think they will finish pretty close.
Dragon1952
Footballguy
I've got him paired with Turner also.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
I would have no problem taking him at #3 next season at the rate hes going... no problem at all
Apollo Creed
Footballguy
With the injuries happening the first three weeks, and the beastly way he's been playing, he could end up numero uno. :knocksonwood:
bostonfred
Footballguy
Yes you would, because at the rate he's going, he won't be available at #3.KellysHeroes said:
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
Mr. Pink
Footballguy
:X
I did the same thing. Got too caught up with the ease of SJax second half schedule and that episode of Hard Knocks where Wade Phillips and Jerry Jones are talking about needing to give F. Jones 10-15 touches a game. Gosh, why did I have to watch that two nights before my draft?!?!
