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Mark Cuban Says NFL Implosion within 10 Years (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter fantasycurse42
- Start date
seahawk 17
Footballguy
Anyone think Cuban might be an attention whore?
Yenrub
Footballguy
Yenrub
Footballguy
Kind of weird that they are moving their Thursday night shows to go up against the Monday night games
LarryAllen'sJockstrap
Footballguy
I'm 35, and spent much more time on the NFL in my 20s than 30s. I still love the game, but being a parent and other factors have significantly decreased the amount of time and money I dedicate to the NFL over the last 5 years.
I still prefer it over any other sport and it's still the only one I'll carve out Sundays to do nothing but watch sports. I like the concept of the tues-thurs games, but too often life gets in the way.
As far as fantasy, I'll probably play till I die, but the weekday games do make it a little more of a PITA with the WW and setting lineups.
As long as the NFL doesn't totally jump the shark in regards to commercialization (I.e. Teams looking like NASCAR decals...) or just outright ridiculous rule changes, I'm a fan for life.
I think the NFL will continue to recycle fans in the 20-30 range and keep them into their older years, unlike most other sports (maybe baseball).
I do agree with Cuban that if the NFL goes too hard after the young crowd with gimmicks and alienates the lifer for short term profits, the game could struggle some. I watched in the 80s and 90s as a kid and those are some of my best memories. I don't want to see a 6000 yard passer or 3 2000 yard receivers in a single season.
I still prefer it over any other sport and it's still the only one I'll carve out Sundays to do nothing but watch sports. I like the concept of the tues-thurs games, but too often life gets in the way.
As far as fantasy, I'll probably play till I die, but the weekday games do make it a little more of a PITA with the WW and setting lineups.
As long as the NFL doesn't totally jump the shark in regards to commercialization (I.e. Teams looking like NASCAR decals...) or just outright ridiculous rule changes, I'm a fan for life.
I think the NFL will continue to recycle fans in the 20-30 range and keep them into their older years, unlike most other sports (maybe baseball).
I do agree with Cuban that if the NFL goes too hard after the young crowd with gimmicks and alienates the lifer for short term profits, the game could struggle some. I watched in the 80s and 90s as a kid and those are some of my best memories. I don't want to see a 6000 yard passer or 3 2000 yard receivers in a single season.
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LarryAllen'sJockstrap
Footballguy
It has become work. Especially for commishes and as leagues evolve and scoring and roster/WW variations become increasingly complicated, running a league takes a little effort most every day during the season, and off season for Dynasty leagues.
Hooper31
Footballguy
I overheard someone on the radio ask the following question, "Would Cuban like to own an NFL team?" Damn right he would.
Rooster
Footballguy
In the 90's Microsoft was so unstoppable we needed government intervention and now it might not even be the second most important technology company of the future. As with everything, you look at the top dog now and say "If they just manage not to screw this up, they're absolutely unstoppable" and the truth is they ALWAYS get a little too complacent/greedy/whatever and lose their top position. The complaints in this thread about Thursday night games are the perfect example, the NFL sees itself as invincible and everyone (TV, consumers, etc.) is demanding another football night, it's wildly successful in financial terms to the league and network and then the fatigue starts setting in for some of the leagues best fans. They extend the season to 18 games or increase the number of playoff teams or whatever and start creeping into late February, then Fox ponies up big for Fox Friday Night Games or they expand into Saturday games on a premium cable channel and ultimately the combine, free agency, the draft and training camp take up the rest of the non-playing time so that the NFL is effectively in your face nearly every day of the year and all the while each individual change looks like an outstanding decision in it's own short term vacuum and slowly the NFL begins to lose a bit of the magic that made itself so popular in the first place until it reaches a tipping point and something else will be the new best thing, the NFL will look at the last couple moves and maybe even reverse the latest decision to make the super bowl only available on the NFL network (or streamed directly to your Verizon wireless-enabled smart watch) but it'll really be the straw that broke the camel's back.
It's not hard to look at the introduction of the NFL Network, Thursday night games, and turning the combine/draft into a media event and see they want the NFL to be a 24/7/365 enterprise. The Sunday/Monday night switch up shows they're not going to be stuck being slaves to tradition until complacence wipes them from their top spot, so I think it's a good bet that they'll ultimately decline in popularity for changing too much. 10 years might be right, but seems a little aggressive to me, but I bet if we look back at the decline in retrospect the most likely answer for their decline will be, "They were too greedy, look at all these crazy changes they made to make an extra buck, that's where they went wrong." They're not unstoppable, nobody is.
It's not hard to look at the introduction of the NFL Network, Thursday night games, and turning the combine/draft into a media event and see they want the NFL to be a 24/7/365 enterprise. The Sunday/Monday night switch up shows they're not going to be stuck being slaves to tradition until complacence wipes them from their top spot, so I think it's a good bet that they'll ultimately decline in popularity for changing too much. 10 years might be right, but seems a little aggressive to me, but I bet if we look back at the decline in retrospect the most likely answer for their decline will be, "They were too greedy, look at all these crazy changes they made to make an extra buck, that's where they went wrong." They're not unstoppable, nobody is.
timschochet
Footballguy
The NFL is so unique. It's the only sport I can think of where a game between the last place teams is still..interesting. Even without fantasy (though fantasy makes it even more interesting.) But unless your a fan of the specific team, you're probably not going to watch a game between the worst teams in the NBA or in baseball. But many people will watch a football game between the worst teams, if its the only game on a Sunday, Monday, or Thursday night.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
I think the NFL will be litigated out of existence at some point.
MattFancy
Footballguy
I don't think what he said was really that crazy.
The NFL was the perfect weekend event. Sundays during the Fall/Winter when the weather is crap and no one is doing much, sitting around watching football is perfect. You only needed to pay attention Sunday/Monday night and that was it. It's not like MLB/NBA/NHL that you have to dedicate a few days/nights a week to watch your favorite team play. Now with the Thursday night games, they're starting to oversaturate the market. Simple suppy and demand. The demand for football was so high because we could only watch games 1 day a week and then on Monday night. Now we're up to 3 days a week and then towards the end of the season, we'll see Saturday night games.
The Fantasy Football angle is also important. The guys I play fantasy football with don't like playing fantasy baseball or basketball because you have to pay way more attention since there are games every day. That's why fantasy football is so easy for casual fans to pick up. You really only need to pay attention to your team on Sunday mornings. Now with games on Thursday, you're asking people to take dedicare more of their time to football.
Also agree on the concussion front. As concussion info gets more and more detailed, I could see parents trying to steer their kids away from football. Why play football and get constantly beat up when your kid could play baseball, basketball or soccer?
Another thing is that the NFL has essentially priced out the average fans from going to games. To take a family of 4 to a football game anymore is about the cost of a week's vacation. For example, to get into a Redskins game and sit in the lower level, you'd pay about $125/ticket. So for a family of 4, you're paying $500 just to get into the game, plus another $50 just to park your car. Then you're paying $9 for a beer, $5 for a soda, $8 for a hot dog. Before you know it, you've dropped $600-$700 just to watch one football game with your family. That's nuts.
Is Cuban right that the NFL will implode in 10 years? Probably not. But I don't think he's too far off.
The NFL was the perfect weekend event. Sundays during the Fall/Winter when the weather is crap and no one is doing much, sitting around watching football is perfect. You only needed to pay attention Sunday/Monday night and that was it. It's not like MLB/NBA/NHL that you have to dedicate a few days/nights a week to watch your favorite team play. Now with the Thursday night games, they're starting to oversaturate the market. Simple suppy and demand. The demand for football was so high because we could only watch games 1 day a week and then on Monday night. Now we're up to 3 days a week and then towards the end of the season, we'll see Saturday night games.
The Fantasy Football angle is also important. The guys I play fantasy football with don't like playing fantasy baseball or basketball because you have to pay way more attention since there are games every day. That's why fantasy football is so easy for casual fans to pick up. You really only need to pay attention to your team on Sunday mornings. Now with games on Thursday, you're asking people to take dedicare more of their time to football.
Also agree on the concussion front. As concussion info gets more and more detailed, I could see parents trying to steer their kids away from football. Why play football and get constantly beat up when your kid could play baseball, basketball or soccer?
Another thing is that the NFL has essentially priced out the average fans from going to games. To take a family of 4 to a football game anymore is about the cost of a week's vacation. For example, to get into a Redskins game and sit in the lower level, you'd pay about $125/ticket. So for a family of 4, you're paying $500 just to get into the game, plus another $50 just to park your car. Then you're paying $9 for a beer, $5 for a soda, $8 for a hot dog. Before you know it, you've dropped $600-$700 just to watch one football game with your family. That's nuts.
Is Cuban right that the NFL will implode in 10 years? Probably not. But I don't think he's too far off.
gump
Footballguy
Meh...baseball is the sport that's losing teens. A big problem there is the interest in the players. Nick Swisher is one of their biggest tweeters for example, not guys like Harper or MucCutchan.
NFL stars like RG3, Wilson, Sherman, Kaep, Manziel, Clowney, etc will have no problem keeping that age group interested. Then they grow up and spend money on it.
NFL stars like RG3, Wilson, Sherman, Kaep, Manziel, Clowney, etc will have no problem keeping that age group interested. Then they grow up and spend money on it.
Premier
Footballguy
Yup.
Concussions are the only thing that could stop this train. Lol at NBA, NHL and MLB being something that could get in the way. I watch them all and cheer for my teams, but the NFL is just miles ahead of all of them. It's not even close.
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TheIronSheik
SUPER ELITE UPPER TIER
I agree. I heard someone yesterday say (or quote) "The world is filled with fallen empires." Baseball used to be #1. Now it's on the decline. Things are always changing.
I think the biggest factor will be that less kids are playing it. And eventually, the sport will run into safety issues bigger than what they are facing now.
jason12vb
Footballguy
I'm a little surprised at the overwhelmingly one sided responses here against Cuban.
I'm a big NFL fan above all other sports and love my Sundays...but I've been essentially saying the same thing as Cuban for the last couple years, their greed is going to turn this momentum around and be their downfall.
I think the NFL is trying to become a 6 days-a-week sport (leaving Sat for college football). I'm a MLB and NBA fan as well...but what makes football stand out is only having my team play on Sunday with the occasional Monday so I can plan my day around it...have friends over...go to a bar, etc. Having that week off leaves me wanting more...but give me more and it'll become too big a commitment. I already hate Thursday night games and no way am I going to change regularly scheduled weekly events on other days of the week.
Not only is the seemingly bottomless pitt that is TV revenue hard to ignore for the NFL, but I think they are getting a lot of backlash from the players union about the quick turn around from Sunday to Thursday night games and they will add other days of the week so teams will always get between 7 and 10 days of rest between games. Play on a Sunday, your next game might be a week from Tuesday, the the next game 8 days later. This kills the 2 games in 5 days argument and leaves the door open to extend the season if they want.
Fantasty implications will be a nightmare...
What happens when the salary cap is so effin' huge from these TV contracts and this momentum turns..or even plateaus? Ticket prices are going to go through the roof and hinder an already mounting problem of battling the in home experience vs the costs of going to the game.
I'm a big NFL fan above all other sports and love my Sundays...but I've been essentially saying the same thing as Cuban for the last couple years, their greed is going to turn this momentum around and be their downfall.
I think the NFL is trying to become a 6 days-a-week sport (leaving Sat for college football). I'm a MLB and NBA fan as well...but what makes football stand out is only having my team play on Sunday with the occasional Monday so I can plan my day around it...have friends over...go to a bar, etc. Having that week off leaves me wanting more...but give me more and it'll become too big a commitment. I already hate Thursday night games and no way am I going to change regularly scheduled weekly events on other days of the week.
Not only is the seemingly bottomless pitt that is TV revenue hard to ignore for the NFL, but I think they are getting a lot of backlash from the players union about the quick turn around from Sunday to Thursday night games and they will add other days of the week so teams will always get between 7 and 10 days of rest between games. Play on a Sunday, your next game might be a week from Tuesday, the the next game 8 days later. This kills the 2 games in 5 days argument and leaves the door open to extend the season if they want.
Fantasty implications will be a nightmare...
What happens when the salary cap is so effin' huge from these TV contracts and this momentum turns..or even plateaus? Ticket prices are going to go through the roof and hinder an already mounting problem of battling the in home experience vs the costs of going to the game.
Da Guru
Fair & Balanced
Kids from more educated families will be in decline, but make no mistake the player pool will always be endless. In fact youth football in the inner city of Detroit is on the rise, while baseball is almost dead. The opportunity to make it in football where there are many more scholarships is tempting.
Rayderr
Footballguy
I'm surprised they haven't taken this more into account. Seems like the NFL's rise coincided with the mainstream introduction of Fantasy Football. People went from rooting for and watching just one team to watching as multiple games. Fantasy is what made non team fans tune into games like Texans vs. Raiders last year. You start making Fantasy impossible, fans go back to just watching their team.
MattFancy
Footballguy
I'm not so sure it will be endless. Of the young kids in my extended family, zero of them play football. They play basketball, baseball, soccer or lacrosse. Not saying that's true of everyone or everywhere, but it seems like in my area at least, there seems to be a shift away from youth football.
MattFancy
Footballguy
Also, fantasy is pretty much what drives a bunch of people to purchase Sunday Ticket/Red Zone. Sure Sunday Ticket gets fans that can't see their favorite teams on local tv, but I'm sure there are plenty of fantasy junkies that purchase Sunday Ticket or Red Zone (like myself) so they can keep tabs on their fantasy players.
Buddy Ball 2K3
Footballguy
Hey MC, how about you cut 6-8 teams from the NBA, fix the top heavy aspect of it, put a better product on the floor and worry about your own sport a bit more.
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
Yeah, I wish Mark Cuban would share some of his opinions on the NBA. You never hear him talk about that.
TheIronSheik
SUPER ELITE UPPER TIER
Steve Tasker
Footballguy
I'm not sure I really get the hate for the Thursday games here. If you hate Thursday night NFL so much....don't watch it. I don't watch it either unless it's a huge game or the Bills are playing, and it hasn't really impacted how I feel about the NFL. I do agree that the quality of the play takes a hit on Thursdays.
pantherclub
Footballguy
Here is a simple solution that would vault the NBA over time a lot closer to the NFL.
Eliminate guaranteed contracts.
jason12vb
Footballguy
I think it will be endless, but mainly because the game is changing so rapidly and will continue to do so as long as people are giving up 30 years of their lives due to head injuries. Right now there are a lot of ex players saying they wouldn't let their kids play or would discourage them from doing so, but the game is changing. With all the safety rules going in, I can see a much safer and higher scoring game..but it will not be the game of football we know today, just like it's not the same as it was 10 years ago.
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
The NFL is the only sport that doesn't have guaranteed contracts, and they still have guaranteed money in the form of signing bonuses. And they only reason they can get away with it is because the NFL players' union is in a really weak bargaining position, since 95% of the players in the league are anonymous pieces of flesh that the league could probably swap out for replacements without most fans noticing much of a difference.
I hear ya, BUT I playing fantasy football/gambling that I feel like I HAVE TO watch the games. Clearly it's my choice, but it also creates a negative perception on the league that is "forcing me" to watch this. The NFL shouldn't ignore the voices of those who have been it's most adamant supporters for years, as "we" are likely on the forefront of what the general public will feel in a few years.
pollardsvision
Footballguy
That would definitely help. No idea if they could ever pull that off, even with NBAPA being about as weak as it's ever been.
There are some "problems" that the NBA simply can't ever fix (not enough alpha dogs to go around, too many games, etc), but this one would really help and is theoretically possible.
jason12vb
Footballguy
Are you a fantasy player Steve? Do Thursday night games ever make you wish you didn't have someone playing on Thursday? For me, it sucks having a banged up running back going on Sunday and my backup option going Thursday.
I'm only a casual fantasy player at this point so "the hate" on my end is:
1) I play in poker and volleyball leagues during the week...I'm not going to cancel on my commitments for a football game.
2) Games go until 11 or so which tends to mean I watch it alone and don't fall asleep until midnight or later...5:30 comes real fast at that point.
3) 3 or 3.5 hours is a significant portion of a workday and one is pretty much giving up their entire evening.
4) My wife is from Seattle and a big football fan as well, so over the years I've watched just as much Seahawks football as Vikings football. That's now Sundays, sometimes Mondays, and sometimes Thursdays that I either have to give up an entire evening of my life or miss a game I'd like to watch for my two favorite teams...add to that a couple exciting match-ups that I try and make time for and watching TV becomes a much bigger percentage of my life than I'd like.
Thank God my wife loves football...i can't imagine the guys out there that football is a stress on their relationships!
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Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
Cuban should start wearing his "He Hate Me" jersey for these NFL related interviews
comfortably numb
Footballguy
when you are on top, there is no where else to go but down
Rayderr
Footballguy
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
The worst NFL game ever played >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> the best episode of Two and a Half Men.
People will watch because it's football. But the product is suffering on Thursday nights. And I think there's some legitimacy to the saturation point. The NFL being on just Sunday and Monday is preferable to the NFL being on every night. I'm not sure having Thursday night games is the tipping point. But you probably get closer when you add games on Friday. And Saturday? And Tuesday?
Implosion is a little extreme. And the timeline probably is, as well. But would a decline in popularity be surprising in the next decade or so? It only takes a few cracks in the foundation.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
The popularity of the league being so closely associated with fantasy football is interesting, too. How many of the people who have been here forever are playing in as many FF leagues as they used to? I'm guessing Cappy doesn't. I know I don't. It seems like I hear that comment more and more from people around here. For those who are playing less, has your interest in the league remained the same or has that declined as well?
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
TV rights to live sports are getting a lot more then the ratings would suggest they're worth because of the trend towards DVR and on-demand viewing and the difficulty of getting ad revenue when people watch TV that way. Live sports are the only thing people can't watch on their own schedule, so as more and more people watch most TV that way sports becomes the only way to get people to watch ads (sponsor ads, ads for your own content, whatever). It's not just football that's benefitting- ask the Dodgers.
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Premier
Footballguy
When I started here I played in 3 or 4. Last year was the first time in 6 or 7 years that I played and I did one league.
Honestly my enjoyment of football went UP when I quit FF. That's just me though.
Yenrub
Footballguy
I have to disagree with you on this Tim
Without fantasy football most football fans (except fans of those teams) won't watch a late season Thursday game between a pair of 3-10 teams
roadkill1292
Footballguy
Because its strongest age demographic is still relatively young, the NFL's "implosion" is still several decades away. TV can cover up a lot of the same problems that are adversely affecting game attendance by filling in the endless stoppages with replay and chatter so it'll always be easy for the at-home fans to get past the down time from the comforts of their living rooms. TV money is far greater than stadium revenues and there's tens of millions who will be watching for a long time.
Still, there are clouds on the long range horizon.
1. Football doesn't have nearly the grip on the next generations of fans, those under 35. A much higher percentage (45%) of the NBA's fans are under 35 than the NFL's (29%).
2. Student sections at major college football programs, including Alabama and Georgia, are going unfilled and football-loving alumni are the bedrock of the college fan demographic.
3. Universities themselves may change dramatically in a couple of decades as cheaper online courses replace the traditional live-on-campus experience. How do you field a team when all your students "attend" electronically?
Still, there are clouds on the long range horizon.
1. Football doesn't have nearly the grip on the next generations of fans, those under 35. A much higher percentage (45%) of the NBA's fans are under 35 than the NFL's (29%).
2. Student sections at major college football programs, including Alabama and Georgia, are going unfilled and football-loving alumni are the bedrock of the college fan demographic.
3. Universities themselves may change dramatically in a couple of decades as cheaper online courses replace the traditional live-on-campus experience. How do you field a team when all your students "attend" electronically?
Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
pollardsvision
Footballguy
I won't argue about what others like, but I find a single NFL game between bad teams to be a miserable thing to watch.
I'm not a fan of watching last place NBA or MLB games either, but I don't find the NFL any better.
Having had Sunday Ticket in seasons past and not having it anymore has made the single NFL game experience even worse for me.
IMO, it's simply the number of games and the significance of each one that makes even NFL games between good teams more enjoyable than a good NBA game.
I like the action and pace of an NBA game much better. MLB is a different animal, but there are reasons to prefer it too.
I think that gives some credence to Cuban's general point, as the NFL didn't become king because the actual product on the field is somehow superior to other sports. It's the circumstances surrounding it, which seems like a tenuous position.
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PIK95
Footballguy
I agree with Cuban. Personally I went from being a four seat Patriot season ticket holder (old stadium) to not even watching games. For me the biggest problem is the long TV timeouts and too much down time during the games. I will admit that I love the red zone channel because of the constant action. I wish they would fix this problem. I would come back.
