I've been playing fantasy football for almost 20 years now, and I've often gravitated towards taking a flyer on a rookie RB whenever I feel that talent and situation allow a chance to greatly exceed draft position. This has helped me to nab the likes of Marshall Faulk, Edgerrin James, Fred Taylor, Chris Johnson and Matt Forte in their rookie seasons. However, the one rookie RB that I remember above all others was the one I drafted way back in 1995 - Curtis Martin.
The reason I remember Martin so vividly is because I dropped him after week 7, due to disappointing production and losing my patience with the situation. Here's his statistical production through the first six games (when I finally gave up hope and dropped him):
94 rushes for 288 yards and 2 TDs rushing along with 6 receptions for 39 yards and 0 TDs receiving.
On a per game basis: 15.67 carries at 3.06 yds per carry (around 48 yds per game) and one TD every three games, plus one reception for 6.5yds.
In the season's opener he rushed for 102 yards but in the next five games 40, 63, 44, 8, & 31 yards respectively. :X
After being patient for 7 long weeks, I felt I could probably do better on the waiver wire than continuing to chase potential with Curtis Martin. Had there been a FBGs message board at the time I would have been the first to tell people, "drop this rookie BUST like a bad habit".
Unfortunately after I dropped him, Martin exploded for 127 yds and a rushing TD in week 8, and subsequently another team with waiver wire priority over me promptly scooped him up and rode him all the way to the title game. I was left shaking my head while over the next 10 weeks Martin accumulated the following stats:
274 rushes for 1,199 yards and 12 rushing TDs, along with 24 receptions for 222 yards and one TD receiving. In fact over those last ten weeks Martin rushed for over 100 yards nine times and still scored a TD in the only week he was held under the century mark.
On a per game basis: 27.4 carries at 4.37 yds per carry, along with 2.4 receptions at 9.25 yds per catch, and 1.3 total TDs per game.
My point in all of this is that Curtis Martin taught me a valuable fantasy football lesson. If/when I believe in a rookie RB's talent and situation, then I will hold onto him all season long if I have to, and I won't drop him just because of a slow start to his NFL career. Sometimes it takes awhile for a rookie to get comfortable and for the game to start slowing down, or for the coaches to properly scheme and match his skills to the offense.
I'm not talking about the Bilal Powell's, DeMarco Murray's, and Jacquizz Rodgers' of the world, although certainly one of them could emerge. Rather I'm talking about very talented rookie RBs drafted to take over a #1 RB role in a decent situation. Ingram certainly meets those qualifiers.
I might never start him all season long, but I'm damn sure not going to miss out on the intersection of talent and opportunity if/when they finally coincide. Now I can't tell you that Curtis Martin is a great analogy for Ingram... Brees and Co. are far more explosive than Bledsoe and Co., and Dave Meggett was no Darren Sproles, although he too was a valuable multi-purpose RB and out of the backfield receiving threat for Parcells in 1995. However, the opportunity is ever lurking in N.O. for Ingram to emerge in a big way. If it happens this season I will be taking advantage in several leagues. If it doesn't, oh well...