Mark Ingram (2 Viewers)

[FF Ninja]

Not sure why there is such resistance to the idea of Ingram putting up better numbers.

1) His coach speaks about using the run more this year.

2) Ingram says he healthier than he's ever been.

3) Reports out of camp are that he looks faster.

4) He's getting the first team reps now.

Hard to say if it's fluff or substance. But those add up to positive buzz in my book.

Post #1,929. Ingram getting positive camp buzz is not a new thing.

I'm all about ignoring silly media buzz, so let's just completely ignore that crap and look at it this way: Payton traded up to get Ingram. Ingram was injured pretty much his whole rookie year. Ingram has two (?) offseason surgeries and looks relatively healthy going into year 2, but Payton is suspended, thus Ingram is underutilized (less than 7 carries per game thru first half of season). So now the stars have finally aligned so that we've got a healthy Ingram and Payton coaching in year 3 - a combination we have not seen. I'm making no guarantees, but I think this could be the combination fantasy owners have been looking for.

Granted Pierre Thomas is still in his prime (turns 29 in December) but he's had his fair share of dings (only played one 16 game season in 6 year career) and the staff seems fit to keep him as a role player - Ingram's 156 carries last year eclipsed Pierre's career high of 147 - achieved back in 2009. It should be pointed out that Mike Bell was given 172 carries that year despite playing in 1 less game than Pierre Thomas. So for all of those.people singing Pierre Thomas' praises, you're wasting your breath. If it hasn't happened yet, it isn't going to happen. The guy is talented but but appears he is destined to suffer the dreaded Mewelde Moore fate.

In 2011, the Saints had 398 RB rushes and 147 RB receptions. With Payton back, I think we can look for something similar. I see Ingram easily hitting 200 rushes (had 102 in the last 8 games of last year), leaving probably 150-180 to split between Thomas, Sproles, and RB4 (Cadet?). If Ingram, Thomas, and Sproles each play 16 games without injury then I expect the split to be 220, 100, 70. But I'm sure they'll each miss some time and the RB4 will take what that leaves him.

Thus, I think a healthy Ingram approaches 1000 yards and 10 TD even if he fails to play like the player they thought they drafted. Should he actually perform like a first round pick and force them to keep feeding him then you've got yourself the steal of the draft. Obviously you can't bank on that, but I feel comfortable banking on 200 carries should he stay healthy.

 

[Grahamburn]

I'm not in here trying to bash Ingram.

I just have a problem grasping why an offensive juggernaut would change their approach. The Saints and Sean Payton will call the plays and play the players that give them the best opportunity to score points. To me, those players have been some combination of Thomas, Sproles, and Ingram in a fairly even split touch wise.

If it ain't broke...

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Granted Pierre Thomas is still in his prime (turns 29 in December) but he's had his fair share of dings (only played one 16 game season in 6 year career) and the staff seems fit to keep him as a role player - Ingram's 156 carries last year eclipsed Pierre's career high of 147 - achieved back in 2009. It should be pointed out that Mike Bell was given 172 carries that year despite playing in 1 less game than Pierre Thomas. So for all of those.people singing Pierre Thomas' praises, you're wasting your breath. If it hasn't happened yet, it isn't going to happen. The guy is talented but but appears he is destined to suffer the dreaded Mewelde Moore fate.

I don't think anyone sees Pierre Thomas as a star, just as a hinderance to Ingram's production. Thomas may not get as many carries as Ingram does, but he'll still get his 150 or so and more importantly he'll take snaps away from Ingram. Thomas is the "jack of all trades" portion of the Saints RBBC. They use him as a runner and in the passing game. Until Ingram starts pushing Thomas aside for additional work in the passing game, his ceiling will be limited.

 

[humpback]

I'm not in here trying to bash Ingram.

I just have a problem grasping why an offensive juggernaut would change their approach. The Saints and Sean Payton will call the plays and play the players that give them the best opportunity to score points. To me, those players have been some combination of Thomas, Sproles, and Ingram in a fairly even split touch wise.

If it ain't broke...

They won 7 games last year, so while it's great that their offense was a juggernaut, W's is what counts. Part of the reason for that is because they were near the bottom of the league in time of possession, in spite of being great offensively overall- their run/pass ratio was one of if not the lowest in the league.

Also, Ingram has led the team in carries both of his seasons. Now with Ivory gone, Ingram seemingly healthy, and expectations for the team as a whole to run a bit more, not much has to change for Ingram to get to 200+ carries. He was on pace for approx. that many his rookie year.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I'm not in here trying to bash Ingram.

I just have a problem grasping why an offensive juggernaut would change their approach. The Saints and Sean Payton will call the plays and play the players that give them the best opportunity to score points. To me, those players have been some combination of Thomas, Sproles, and Ingram in a fairly even split touch wise.

If it ain't broke...

They won 7 games last year, so while it's great that their offense was a juggernaut, W's is what counts. Part of the reason for that is because they were near the bottom of the league in time of possession, in spite of being great offensively overall- their run/pass ratio was one of if not the lowest in the league.

Also, Ingram has lead the team in carries both of his seasons. Now with Ivory gone, Ingram seemingly healthy, and expectations for the team as a whole to run a bit more, not much has to change for Ingram to get to 200+ carries. He was on pace for approx. that many his rookie year.

Once again, Ivory being gone doesn't mean much to Ingram. Ivory was inactive each week, unless Ingram, Thomas or Sproles were out injured. He really didn't take snaps away from Ingram, despite looking better than him when he did get his chances.

I liked Ingram a lot coming into the league - and I still do. I also agree he's a nice re-draft target because you can get him late enough in the draft where you don't have to depend on him and if he does pan out it's all gravy.

However, this team is (rightfully) built around Drew Brees and the passing game, and Ingram would need to gain serious seperation from Thomas and Sproles before he's going to put up big numbers in this offense. Ingram has the skillset of a volume stat compiler, and he just doesn't get the volume. I don't think that will change dramatically enough. As others have said, a change of scenery would be the best thing for him.

 

[Gopher State]

(KFFL)New Orleans Saints RB Mark Ingram received a majority of the carries with the first-team offense during practice Monday, Aug. 5, and looked strong, fast and fluid during his rushes.

everyone looks strong and fast during the first week of training camp

 

[Scooby1974]

Is Ingram's situation really that much different from Ridley's in NE? Why couldn't a healthy Ingram put up 1100 and 10 td's on a juggernaut offense?

I think Humpback hits the nail right on the head when he brings up the time of possession stat. NO cannot win unless they get ahead and STAY there. As good as Brees is, he doesn't exactly have Green Bay's WR's to throw to. Jimmy Graham is great, but outside of him, NO is average at best at WR. I think that we'll see NO work harder at getting ahead with more Sproles than Ingram...then once ahead, we are likely to see more Ingram than Sproles to try and grind out the clock so their putrid Defense can get some rest.

My fear though is that with 2 of NO's pass rushers getting hurt already, that D won't be able to get pressure on opposing QB's and NO could find themselves constantly trying to get ahead like they did last year.

Only time will tell, but I actually like what I'm hearing from Payton and the news out of camp that Ingram is running with the 1's and looking healthy/quick/strong.

 

[humpback]

I'm not in here trying to bash Ingram.

I just have a problem grasping why an offensive juggernaut would change their approach. The Saints and Sean Payton will call the plays and play the players that give them the best opportunity to score points. To me, those players have been some combination of Thomas, Sproles, and Ingram in a fairly even split touch wise.

If it ain't broke...

They won 7 games last year, so while it's great that their offense was a juggernaut, W's is what counts. Part of the reason for that is because they were near the bottom of the league in time of possession, in spite of being great offensively overall- their run/pass ratio was one of if not the lowest in the league.

Also, Ingram has lead the team in carries both of his seasons. Now with Ivory gone, Ingram seemingly healthy, and expectations for the team as a whole to run a bit more, not much has to change for Ingram to get to 200+ carries. He was on pace for approx. that many his rookie year.

Once again, Ivory being gone doesn't mean much to Ingram. Ivory was inactive each week, unless Ingram, Thomas or Sproles were out injured. He really didn't take snaps away from Ingram, despite looking better than him when he did get his chances.

I liked Ingram a lot coming into the league - and I still do. I also agree he's a nice re-draft target because you can get him late enough in the draft where you don't have to depend on him and if he does pan out it's all gravy.

However, this team is (rightfully) built around Drew Brees and the passing game, and Ingram would need to gain serious seperation from Thomas and Sproles before he's going to put up big numbers in this offense. Ingram has the skillset of a volume stat compiler, and he just doesn't get the volume. I don't think that will change dramatically enough. As others have said, a change of scenery would be the best thing for him.

I didn't say it means much, but it is one less talented competitor for him to share with. Ingram played every game last season, so it stands to reason that if Ivory wasn't there, Ingram would have had a few more carries, unless you think they would have given the same amount to the 5th string RB in those games.

In case you missed it, I wasn't arguing that he's going to light up the stat sheet. I'm just saying that I think it's likely that NO runs the ball more this year (based on coaching difference, his comments, and the abnormally low run/pass ratio last season), and they'll have one less mouth to feed in doing so.

I expect the RB pie to get bigger, so even if his share of the pie doesn't increase much (if at all), his touches should go up.

 

[rickyg]

The takeaway here is that:

1) ingram is a talented runner and the jury is not out yet on his ability to be an elite nfl back for various reasons.

2) his draft price has adjusted accordingly to his "bust" tag and so this year it won't kill you to take a hot on him in the 8th or 9th round and be wrong on him again.

At worst, barring injury, he should be at least a decent rb3/flex/bye week replacement for your squad which coincides with his ADP.

At best, the team finally starts to feature him and you busted out a high end rb2 (non ppr) in a high octane offense with a mod-late rd pick.

Ill take those chances. It won't kill my team if I'm wrong.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I didn't say it means much, but it is one less talented competitor for him to share with. Ingram played every game last season, so it stands to reason that if Ivory wasn't there, Ingram would have had a few more carries, unless you think they would have given the same amount to the 5th string RB in those games.

Thomas and Ivory were both UDFAs so I wouldn't put it past the Saints to give carries to the next man up, if Ivory wasn't available. Travis Cadet is more of a replacement for Sproles than one who would take carries away from Ingram, so maybe Khiry Robinson a 220 pound rookie out of West Texas A&M becomes their new Ivory.

 

[Scooby1974]

(KFFL)New Orleans Saints RB Mark Ingram received a majority of the carries with the first-team offense during practice Monday, Aug. 5, and looked strong, fast and fluid during his rushes.

everyone looks strong and fast during the first week of training camp

Jordy Nelson underwent knee surgery Monday and he will be out for the rest of training camp.

Eddie Lacy (hamstring) is a "concern" for Friday's preseason opener after missing his second consecutive practice Thursday.

Second opinion confirms Bulaga done for year

Just busting your stones...

 

[humpback]

I didn't say it means much, but it is one less talented competitor for him to share with. Ingram played every game last season, so it stands to reason that if Ivory wasn't there, Ingram would have had a few more carries, unless you think they would have given the same amount to the 5th string RB in those games.

Thomas and Ivory were both UDFAs so I wouldn't put it past the Saints to give carries to the next man up, if Ivory wasn't available. Travis Cadet is more of a replacement for Sproles than one who would take carries away from Ingram, so maybe Khiry Robinson a 220 pound rookie out of West Texas A&M becomes their new Ivory.

Not sure why you're obsessed with this one minor point out of everything I wrote, but if if makes you feel better, ignore the part about Ivory. I still expect more touches for Ingram based on the other factors.

 

[FF Ninja]

Granted Pierre Thomas is still in his prime (turns 29 in December) but he's had his fair share of dings (only played one 16 game season in 6 year career) and the staff seems fit to keep him as a role player - Ingram's 156 carries last year eclipsed Pierre's career high of 147 - achieved back in 2009. It should be pointed out that Mike Bell was given 172 carries that year despite playing in 1 less game than Pierre Thomas. So for all of those.people singing Pierre Thomas' praises, you're wasting your breath. If it hasn't happened yet, it isn't going to happen. The guy is talented but but appears he is destined to suffer the dreaded Mewelde Moore fate.

I don't think anyone sees Pierre Thomas as a star, just as a hinderance to Ingram's production. Thomas may not get as many carries as Ingram does, but he'll still get his 150 or so and more importantly he'll take snaps away from Ingram. Thomas is the "jack of all trades" portion of the Saints RBBC. They use him as a runner and in the passing game. Until Ingram starts pushing Thomas aside for additional work in the passing game, his ceiling will be limited.

I never said they see him as a star. I'm guessing you don't and your response highlights the flaw in the thinking of people who worry too much about Thomas limiting Ingram. You guys don't seem to have any grasp on the numbers. Hell, you just read what I wrote and still said something about Thomas getting 150 or so carries. Last year Thomas got 105 carries. The year before, when Ingram was injured and the Saints RBs rushed the ball 398 times, Thomas got 110 carries.

I don't know why they limit him so much, but they do. With Payton back and if Ingram is healthy for 16 games, I will be shocked if Thomas eclipses 100 carries this year. I'll bet you anything that he won't touch the 150 you mentioned.

 

[TheLurkerBelow]

Although I actually like Ingram to exceed his ADP, one thing I think that people are forgetting in their optimistic stat predictions is that even though he's a short yardage back, he doesn't get goal line carries, no one on the Saints does, they throw it in those situations. If you remember his rookie pre-season, he had like three or four goal line TDs and everyone was stoked about all the TDs he could get in an offense that was in the red zone so often. But, once it got to the regular season, Brees threw it is the vast majority of situations within the five yard line. Unless they change that offensive approach I think that really limits his upside.

If anyone has a way to verify my anecdotal "Saints usually pass at the goal line and not run" I would appreciate it. If the stats show I'm remembering wrong I'll edit my post and stand down.

 

[Bronx Bomber]

He's was viewed as a goal line back because of the depth chart and his projected role at the time. He's much more of a complete back than that though.

 

[FF Ninja]

Although I actually like Ingram to exceed his ADP, one thing I think that people are forgetting in their optimistic stat predictions is that even though he's a short yardage back, he doesn't get goal line carries, no one on the Saints does, they throw it in those situations. If you remember his rookie pre-season, he had like three or four goal line TDs and everyone was stoked about all the TDs he could get in an offense that was in the red zone so often. But, once it got to the regular season, Brees threw it is the vast majority of situations within the five yard line. Unless they change that offensive approach I think that really limits his upside.

If anyone has a way to verify my anecdotal "Saints usually pass at the goal line and not run" I would appreciate it. If the stats show I'm remembering wrong I'll edit my post and stand down.

You seem to be correct. Last year Ingram got 3 carries inside the 5, the year before he got 4 carries. Pierre Thomas got 1 last year and 8 the year before. Sproles got 0 last year and 4 the year before. It does appear that at least they run at the goal line more with Payton at the helm than without, so that's a good thing even though it isn't a ton.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

ESPN NFC South blogger Pat Yasinskas "has a feeling" Mark Ingram will end up as the "focal point of the running game" in New Orleans this season.

Coach Sean Payton is dead set on kickstarting his run game, and Ingram is the Saints' best inside runner and keep-the-lead option. Yasinskas blames Ingram's slow first two seasons on "not getting a lot of opportunities," and believes "this is the year those opportunities come." Ingram is an interesting fantasy pick because you can get him in the eighth or ninth round, and he'll be New Orleans' primary red-zone back while leading the team in early-down carries.

Aug 7 - 9:26 AM

Source: ESPN.com

ESPN.com's Matt Williamson believes it's a "make-or-break year" for Mark Ingram.
Williamson doesn't cover the Saints on a regular basis, but he does have a good eye for football talent. "At his best, he is a decisive and powerful downhill runner," Williamson writes. "...His vision and ability to create space have been questionable, and he needs to develop further as a receiver." Everything we've read from the Saints' local beat writers has been positive surrounding Ingram this summer, and he's fully expected to handle the bulk of the backfield work. He's averaged just 3.9 YPC across 278 career totes, so that needs to come up some. Ingram is nothing more than a weekly, yet iffy, flex play for fantasy purposes.


Source: ESPN.com

 

[TheLurkerBelow]

Although I actually like Ingram to exceed his ADP, one thing I think that people are forgetting in their optimistic stat predictions is that even though he's a short yardage back, he doesn't get goal line carries, no one on the Saints does, they throw it in those situations. If you remember his rookie pre-season, he had like three or four goal line TDs and everyone was stoked about all the TDs he could get in an offense that was in the red zone so often. But, once it got to the regular season, Brees threw it is the vast majority of situations within the five yard line. Unless they change that offensive approach I think that really limits his upside.

If anyone has a way to verify my anecdotal "Saints usually pass at the goal line and not run" I would appreciate it. If the stats show I'm remembering wrong I'll edit my post and stand down.

You seem to be correct. Last year Ingram got 3 carries inside the 5, the year before he got 4 carries. Pierre Thomas got 1 last year and 8 the year before. Sproles got 0 last year and 4 the year before. It does appear that at least they run at the goal line more with Payton at the helm than without, so that's a good thing even though it isn't a ton.

Oh man do I love http://www.pro-football-reference.com. They do in fact have a TD passes link that breaks them all down. Comparing the numbers you have for Ingram, here are the numbers for Brees. These aren't attempts, just actual TD passes.

Over the last two years combined:

TD passes within 20 = 65

TD passes within 10 = 48

TD passes within 5 = 25

EDIT: For clarification, these are cumulative, the TDs within the 20 are inclusive of the passes 10 and 5.

 

[ODannyBoy]

I'm not in here trying to bash Ingram.

I just have a problem grasping why an offensive juggernaut would change their approach. The Saints and Sean Payton will call the plays and play the players that give them the best opportunity to score points. To me, those players have been some combination of Thomas, Sproles, and Ingram in a fairly even split touch wise.

If it ain't broke...

Because going 7-9 isn't the definition of doing it right? Some people believe that a power running game can protect a lead or hide a bad defense.

Anyway, it's a false premise. As FFninja pointed out, last year was a bit of a deviation from 2011's rushing numbers. 398 carries is nothing to sneeze at if you have the RB that can get the majority of those carries plus add in a few receptions here and there on top.

For where Ingram is being drafted, if he can land north of 200 carries, he has the potential to outperform his draft position.

So that's the question, can he do so?

I don't fault someone for taking the under. But there are encouraging signs that indicate he can. Even when he was stinking up the joint, he was still getting more rushing touches than Pierre. And if you go back and look, he wasn't considered a liability as a receiving back coming out of college.

Just because someone doesn't utilize a back out the backfield much doesn't mean the back sucks at it. Go read the scouting reports on Alfred Morris.

If Ingram is showing superior skill and talent to Pierre, he could very well go north of 200 carries and also grab a bigger portion of the receiving as well.

 

[Yitbos69]

(KFFL)New Orleans Saints RB Mark Ingram received a majority of the carries with the first-team offense during practice Monday, Aug. 5, and looked strong, fast and fluid during his rushes.

everyone looks strong and fast during the first week of training camp

The thing that stood out for me was that Ingram was getting the majority of 1st team carries

 

[ODannyBoy]

from KFFL.com:

Saints | Mark Ingram improved in second half of seasonNew Orleans Saints RB Mark Ingram rushed for 178 yards and one touchdown in the first eight games of the 2012 season but rushed for 424 yards and four touchdowns in the second half of the season.

2013-05-16 16:09:49 | Source: New Orleans Times-Picayune - Mike Triplett

I like how KFFL fails to mention in the first 8 games Ingram had 47 carries while in the last 8 games he had 109 carries.

It only took a little bit over twice the number of carries for him to improve his ypc by .14 yards

They did double his carries over that time frame, which is a good thing if that workload continues.

While getting more carries is a good thing, I find that YPC to be negligible. Also, in those last 8 games Sproles missed 3 games, Pierre 1 game (all different weeks), and 2 of those games when Sproles was out Ivory had much better numbers than Ingram.

Him getting more carries is a good thing, Im just not buying that he gets >50 carries over Pierre, and Sproles snaps/touches limits his ceiling to 190-200 carries. That said, I think he is as safe as any of the RBs going around him and is decent value because of that, but barring an injury to Sproles or Pierre, I dont think he ends up a RB2.

Pierre has had better year end stats the last 2 years. Im not expecting that to happen again, but Pierre is also going 40+ picks later at RB49. That seems like an even better value for someone who has finished RB27 and RB33 the last 2 years.

Why would they be obligated to mention that his ypc was about the same? More carries at a similar ypc still means more yards than before which is a good thing. So by definition he was more productive in the second half of the season than the first. You acknowledge this. I often shake my head at some of the news and analysis that comes across the wires, but I'm not sure why you are nitpicking KFFL for posting that blurb.

I mentioned nothing about his YPC, and even Biabreakable said in his response to the post you responded to that he mentioned that sarcastically.

Don't play coy. You said "I like how KFFL fails to mention in the first 8 games Ingram had 47 carries while in the last 8 games he had 109 carries."

It's was obviously criticism of their reporting. So what's the big deal with them not mentioning his number of carries unless you were trying to intimate that the number of carries somehow undermines or runs counter to the assertion they are making?

You called them out for omitting it. Why is it a significant stat, since you apparently think it so?

 

[Casting Couch]

from KFFL.com:

Saints | Mark Ingram improved in second half of seasonNew Orleans Saints RB Mark Ingram rushed for 178 yards and one touchdown in the first eight games of the 2012 season but rushed for 424 yards and four touchdowns in the second half of the season.

2013-05-16 16:09:49 | Source: New Orleans Times-Picayune - Mike Triplett

I like how KFFL fails to mention in the first 8 games Ingram had 47 carries while in the last 8 games he had 109 carries.

It only took a little bit over twice the number of carries for him to improve his ypc by .14 yards

They did double his carries over that time frame, which is a good thing if that workload continues.

While getting more carries is a good thing, I find that YPC to be negligible. Also, in those last 8 games Sproles missed 3 games, Pierre 1 game (all different weeks), and 2 of those games when Sproles was out Ivory had much better numbers than Ingram.

Him getting more carries is a good thing, Im just not buying that he gets >50 carries over Pierre, and Sproles snaps/touches limits his ceiling to 190-200 carries. That said, I think he is as safe as any of the RBs going around him and is decent value because of that, but barring an injury to Sproles or Pierre, I dont think he ends up a RB2.

Pierre has had better year end stats the last 2 years. Im not expecting that to happen again, but Pierre is also going 40+ picks later at RB49. That seems like an even better value for someone who has finished RB27 and RB33 the last 2 years.

Why would they be obligated to mention that his ypc was about the same? More carries at a similar ypc still means more yards than before which is a good thing. So by definition he was more productive in the second half of the season than the first. You acknowledge this. I often shake my head at some of the news and analysis that comes across the wires, but I'm not sure why you are nitpicking KFFL for posting that blurb.

I mentioned nothing about his YPC, and even Biabreakable said in his response to the post you responded to that he mentioned that sarcastically.

Don't play coy. You said "I like how KFFL fails to mention in the first 8 games Ingram had 47 carries while in the last 8 games he had 109 carries."

It's was obviously criticism of their reporting. So what's the big deal with them not mentioning his number of carries unless you were trying to intimate that the number of carries somehow undermines or runs counter to the assertion they are making?

You called them out for omitting it. Why is it a significant stat, since you apparently think it so?

Obviously the statement is trying to show how much Ingram improved in the second half of the year,

while omitting a hugely important piece of the story.....

that dude had better numbers in the second half of the season on MORE THAN DOUBLE THE CARRIES.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Rotoworld:

ESPN NFC South blogger Pat Yasinskas "has a feeling" Mark Ingram will end up as the "focal point of the running game" in New Orleans this season.

Coach Sean Payton is dead set on kickstarting his run game, and Ingram is the Saints' best inside runner and keep-the-lead option. Yasinskas blames Ingram's slow first two seasons on "not getting a lot of opportunities," and believes "this is the year those opportunities come." Ingram is an interesting fantasy pick because you can get him in the eighth or ninth round, and he'll be New Orleans' primary red-zone back while leading the team in early-down carries.

Aug 7 - 9:26 AM

Source: ESPN.com

ESPN.com's Matt Williamson believes it's a "make-or-break year" for Mark Ingram.
Williamson doesn't cover the Saints on a regular basis, but he does have a good eye for football talent. "At his best, he is a decisive and powerful downhill runner," Williamson writes. "...His vision and ability to create space have been questionable, and he needs to develop further as a receiver." Everything we've read from the Saints' local beat writers has been positive surrounding Ingram this summer, and he's fully expected to handle the bulk of the backfield work. He's averaged just 3.9 YPC across 278 career totes, so that needs to come up some. Ingram is nothing more than a weekly, yet iffy, flex play for fantasy purposes.


Source: ESPN.com

That's pretty much what I said earlier, unless he (1) actually makes big plays, ie long runs and/or (2) becomes a dangerous receiving threat on the order of Pierre Thomas (who is a serious threat on screen passes to take up chunks of yardage) and Sproles (no comment necessary) he will not be able to allow the Saints coaches to justify using him anything but situationally, and right now that role is short yardage, 3rd down, goal line, and forcing the run on the defense. From a football standpoint, the Saints need what he does (though I think he could do it better for what they paid to get him), from a FF standpoint it almost never pays off.

Also for those contemplating what happens with Ivory out the picture, well there's a guy named Khiry Robinson who may just step in and be Ivory Part II all over again.

 

[ODannyBoy]

from KFFL.com:

Saints | Mark Ingram improved in second half of seasonNew Orleans Saints RB Mark Ingram rushed for 178 yards and one touchdown in the first eight games of the 2012 season but rushed for 424 yards and four touchdowns in the second half of the season.

2013-05-16 16:09:49 | Source: New Orleans Times-Picayune - Mike Triplett

I like how KFFL fails to mention in the first 8 games Ingram had 47 carries while in the last 8 games he had 109 carries.

It only took a little bit over twice the number of carries for him to improve his ypc by .14 yards

They did double his carries over that time frame, which is a good thing if that workload continues.

While getting more carries is a good thing, I find that YPC to be negligible. Also, in those last 8 games Sproles missed 3 games, Pierre 1 game (all different weeks), and 2 of those games when Sproles was out Ivory had much better numbers than Ingram.

Him getting more carries is a good thing, Im just not buying that he gets >50 carries over Pierre, and Sproles snaps/touches limits his ceiling to 190-200 carries. That said, I think he is as safe as any of the RBs going around him and is decent value because of that, but barring an injury to Sproles or Pierre, I dont think he ends up a RB2.

Pierre has had better year end stats the last 2 years. Im not expecting that to happen again, but Pierre is also going 40+ picks later at RB49. That seems like an even better value for someone who has finished RB27 and RB33 the last 2 years.

Why would they be obligated to mention that his ypc was about the same? More carries at a similar ypc still means more yards than before which is a good thing. So by definition he was more productive in the second half of the season than the first. You acknowledge this. I often shake my head at some of the news and analysis that comes across the wires, but I'm not sure why you are nitpicking KFFL for posting that blurb.

I mentioned nothing about his YPC, and even Biabreakable said in his response to the post you responded to that he mentioned that sarcastically.

Don't play coy. You said "I like how KFFL fails to mention in the first 8 games Ingram had 47 carries while in the last 8 games he had 109 carries."

It's was obviously criticism of their reporting. So what's the big deal with them not mentioning his number of carries unless you were trying to intimate that the number of carries somehow undermines or runs counter to the assertion they are making?

You called them out for omitting it. Why is it a significant stat, since you apparently think it so?

Obviously the statement is trying to show how much Ingram improved in the second half of the year,

while omitting a hugely important piece of the story.....

that dude had better numbers in the second half of the season on MORE THAN DOUBLE THE CARRIES.

Obviously.

Which is why my post wasn't arguing over his YPC. Kenny Powers called out KFFL for not noting that the higher production was on double the carries, implying that they were fluffing Ingram without justification. Go back and read his post and look at the spirit in which it was written. He then later acts like he wasn't saying anything about Ingram's YPC with that remark. Of course it's ridiculous to claim that the number of touches is needed to put the total yards into context while also claiming you aren't talking about YPC.

We know the YPC didn't move much. The plus for Ingram, and it's what I assumed KFFL intended when I read the blurb, is simply that his production doubled in the second half. And that's a good thing for his draft stock whether or not his YPC moved at all. Since when do we count it as nothing when someone starts getting twice as many touches? It's a bit irrational this double standard we are seeing applied to Ingram. It's like the butthurt still remains and people have some personal axe to grind.

We don't normally discount that type of development for other players. We freakin' shout it from the rooftops for players we like. So then why would it suddenly be the basis for a snide remark unless you are just looking for a way to speak negatively or try and spin it some other (disingenuous) way?

If I own Ingram and his production doubles, even if it's on double the carries, it's still a good thing and should be considered a point in his favor when considering his value.

 

[ODannyBoy]

(KFFL)New Orleans Saints RB Mark Ingram received a majority of the carries with the first-team offense during practice Monday, Aug. 5, and looked strong, fast and fluid during his rushes.

everyone looks strong and fast during the first week of training camp

The thing that stood out for me was that Ingram was getting the majority of 1st team carries

Exactly.

Everyone may look strong and fast. But potential starters get first team reps.

By this point I think people's minds are made up. If everything that's being said about him is positive and yet people think the book has already been written on him after his first two seasons, let them. It's a bias to exploit.

 

[ODannyBoy]

The takeaway here is that:

1) ingram is a talented runner and the jury is not out yet on his ability to be an elite nfl back for various reasons.

2) his draft price has adjusted accordingly to his "bust" tag and so this year it won't kill you to take a hot on him in the 8th or 9th round and be wrong on him again.

At worst, barring injury, he should be at least a decent rb3/flex/bye week replacement for your squad which coincides with his ADP.

At best, the team finally starts to feature him and you busted out a high end rb2 (non ppr) in a high octane offense with a mod-late rd pick.

Ill take those chances. It won't kill my team if I'm wrong.

Good posting.

But it won't be recognized as such because people are convinced that the jury has returned and Ingram is guilty of sucking and is sentenced to watching Pierre Thomas steal his touches every week.

I've never been able to land Ingram before for a price I thought acceptable, but count me in as a buyer this year if more "fluff" keeps coming out and all the haters ignore it and keep his price suppressed.

 

[stbugs]

I'm not in here trying to bash Ingram.

I just have a problem grasping why an offensive juggernaut would change their approach. The Saints and Sean Payton will call the plays and play the players that give them the best opportunity to score points. To me, those players have been some combination of Thomas, Sproles, and Ingram in a fairly even split touch wise.

If it ain't broke...

They won 7 games last year, so while it's great that their offense was a juggernaut, W's is what counts. Part of the reason for that is because they were near the bottom of the league in time of possession, in spite of being great offensively overall- their run/pass ratio was one of if not the lowest in the league.

Also, Ingram has led the team in carries both of his seasons. Now with Ivory gone, Ingram seemingly healthy, and expectations for the team as a whole to run a bit more, not much has to change for Ingram to get to 200+ carries. He was on pace for approx. that many his rookie year.

Wait, let's please not say that part of the reason they were 13-3 in 2011 and 7-9 in 2012 was because of their time of possession.

They were 7-9 last year because their defense was historically bad. Their D in 2012 set an NFL record, most yards allowed in NFL history. They were also 2nd worst in points allowed. I am pretty sure that giving up the most yards in NFL history will cause issues with the time of possession. They gave up 115 more points in 2012. Giving up an extra TD a game causes teams to lose more games.

While 2011 was better, the Saints were still the #2 scoring offense in 2012. They sucked in 2012 because their D was historically bad. You might argue chicken and egg, but Ingram isn't that good, running more would not have stopped that D. They were just atrocious.

I watched Ingram last year (had Brees and Sproles on one team with Ingram on my bench) and every once in a while he showed a little something, but he never looked anything close to special to me. Sproles and Thomas always looked way more explosive to me. I just don't see much of a chance of Ingram really being a focal point. He may get most of the rushing carries, but I would think their offense would get worse if they gave Ingram more touches instead of Graham, Colston, Sproles, Moore and even Thomas.

 

[stbugs]

The takeaway here is that:

1) ingram is a talented runner and the jury is not out yet on his ability to be an elite nfl back for various reasons.

2) his draft price has adjusted accordingly to his "bust" tag and so this year it won't kill you to take a hot on him in the 8th or 9th round and be wrong on him again.

At worst, barring injury, he should be at least a decent rb3/flex/bye week replacement for your squad which coincides with his ADP.

At best, the team finally starts to feature him and you busted out a high end rb2 (non ppr) in a high octane offense with a mod-late rd pick.

Ill take those chances. It won't kill my team if I'm wrong.

Good posting.

But it won't be recognized as such because people are convinced that the jury has returned and Ingram is guilty of sucking and is sentenced to watching Pierre Thomas steal his touches every week.

I've never been able to land Ingram before for a price I thought acceptable, but count me in as a buyer this year if more "fluff" keeps coming out and all the haters ignore it and keep his price suppressed.

Ummm, sorry, but he is guilty of sucking so far. A 1st round RB finishing 45th and 35th in non-PPR (far, far worse in PPR, which I play in all 3 leagues) is sucking. For those of us who play PPR, his floor is way worse than a RB3/flex play.

That said, he should do better this year, because Ivory won't get 200+ yards like he has the past two years. On the other side, I don't think that Mark Ingram is a talented NFL runner so far. 3.9 ypc when D's are 100% focusing on Brees is not good. Thomas has averaged 4.8ypc with the Saints and Sproles averaged 6.9 ypc in 2011 and 5.1 ypc in 2012. Brees has averaged around 8ypa with the Saints, so with those two RBs ypc and Brees' ypa, why would they put more of a focus on Ingram? I sure don't think some of the 1000 yard 8-9 TD projections are even close.

One quick question for everyone, is anyone worried about Sproles getting more carries? He was brought in by Payton just like Ingram was drafted by Payton. Sproles had twice as many carries in 2011 as he did in 2012. Maybe Payton will get back to given more carries to Sproles.

 

[Scooby1974]

The takeaway here is that:

1) ingram is a talented runner and the jury is not out yet on his ability to be an elite nfl back for various reasons.

2) his draft price has adjusted accordingly to his "bust" tag and so this year it won't kill you to take a hot on him in the 8th or 9th round and be wrong on him again.

At worst, barring injury, he should be at least a decent rb3/flex/bye week replacement for your squad which coincides with his ADP.

At best, the team finally starts to feature him and you busted out a high end rb2 (non ppr) in a high octane offense with a mod-late rd pick.

Ill take those chances. It won't kill my team if I'm wrong.

Good posting.

But it won't be recognized as such because people are convinced that the jury has returned and Ingram is guilty of sucking and is sentenced to watching Pierre Thomas steal his touches every week.

I've never been able to land Ingram before for a price I thought acceptable, but count me in as a buyer this year if more "fluff" keeps coming out and all the haters ignore it and keep his price suppressed.

Ummm, sorry, but he is guilty of sucking so far. A 1st round RB finishing 45th and 35th in non-PPR (far, far worse in PPR, which I play in all 3 leagues) is sucking. For those of us who play PPR, his floor is way worse than a RB3/flex play.

That said, he should do better this year, because Ivory won't get 200+ yards like he has the past two years. On the other side, I don't think that Mark Ingram is a talented NFL runner so far. 3.9 ypc when D's are 100% focusing on Brees is not good. Thomas has averaged 4.8ypc with the Saints and Sproles averaged 6.9 ypc in 2011 and 5.1 ypc in 2012. Brees has averaged around 8ypa with the Saints, so with those two RBs ypc and Brees' ypa, why would they put more of a focus on Ingram? I sure don't think some of the 1000 yard 8-9 TD projections are even close.

One quick question for everyone, is anyone worried about Sproles getting more carries? He was brought in by Payton just like Ingram was drafted by Payton. Sproles had twice as many carries in 2011 as he did in 2012. Maybe Payton will get back to given more carries to Sproles.

It has been mentioned many times that Ingram's carries have primarily been on short yardage/goal line carries. In those cases, the D is NOT focused 100% on Brees, they are focused on stopping Ingram from picking up the first down. This significantly lowers Ingram's YPC numbers.

 

[stbugs]

The takeaway here is that:

1) ingram is a talented runner and the jury is not out yet on his ability to be an elite nfl back for various reasons.

2) his draft price has adjusted accordingly to his "bust" tag and so this year it won't kill you to take a hot on him in the 8th or 9th round and be wrong on him again.

At worst, barring injury, he should be at least a decent rb3/flex/bye week replacement for your squad which coincides with his ADP.

At best, the team finally starts to feature him and you busted out a high end rb2 (non ppr) in a high octane offense with a mod-late rd pick.

Ill take those chances. It won't kill my team if I'm wrong.

Good posting.

But it won't be recognized as such because people are convinced that the jury has returned and Ingram is guilty of sucking and is sentenced to watching Pierre Thomas steal his touches every week.

I've never been able to land Ingram before for a price I thought acceptable, but count me in as a buyer this year if more "fluff" keeps coming out and all the haters ignore it and keep his price suppressed.

Ummm, sorry, but he is guilty of sucking so far. A 1st round RB finishing 45th and 35th in non-PPR (far, far worse in PPR, which I play in all 3 leagues) is sucking. For those of us who play PPR, his floor is way worse than a RB3/flex play.

That said, he should do better this year, because Ivory won't get 200+ yards like he has the past two years. On the other side, I don't think that Mark Ingram is a talented NFL runner so far. 3.9 ypc when D's are 100% focusing on Brees is not good. Thomas has averaged 4.8ypc with the Saints and Sproles averaged 6.9 ypc in 2011 and 5.1 ypc in 2012. Brees has averaged around 8ypa with the Saints, so with those two RBs ypc and Brees' ypa, why would they put more of a focus on Ingram? I sure don't think some of the 1000 yard 8-9 TD projections are even close.

One quick question for everyone, is anyone worried about Sproles getting more carries? He was brought in by Payton just like Ingram was drafted by Payton. Sproles had twice as many carries in 2011 as he did in 2012. Maybe Payton will get back to given more carries to Sproles.

It has been mentioned many times that Ingram's carries have primarily been on short yardage/goal line carries. In those cases, the D is NOT focused 100% on Brees, they are focused on stopping Ingram from picking up the first down. This significantly lowers Ingram's YPC numbers.

Feel free to post those. He has almost 280 carries in the past two years and posts above it says that Ingram had 7 carries inside the 5 yard line. Are you saying those 7 carries are really the reason why his ypc aren't that great? Sproles has 17 TDs and Graham has 20 TDs the last two years. Both of them get more opportunities at the goal line than Ingram has, so even in short yardage teams are focusing on Brees as much as they are on Ingram. Hmmm, let's think about the D-Coordinator. Should we focus on Brees, who averages around 3 TDs passes a game or Ingram, who averages 0.3 TDs per game. Sorry, but unless you can show me that he averages well over 4 ypc on all his non-short yardage carries, I don't believe his ypc is affected when the guy has 7 goal line carries in 280 carries. I wouldn't even say that 7 goal line carries in 2 years qualifies as a short yardage back.

 

[humpback]

I'm not in here trying to bash Ingram.

I just have a problem grasping why an offensive juggernaut would change their approach. The Saints and Sean Payton will call the plays and play the players that give them the best opportunity to score points. To me, those players have been some combination of Thomas, Sproles, and Ingram in a fairly even split touch wise.

If it ain't broke...

They won 7 games last year, so while it's great that their offense was a juggernaut, W's is what counts. Part of the reason for that is because they were near the bottom of the league in time of possession, in spite of being great offensively overall- their run/pass ratio was one of if not the lowest in the league.

Also, Ingram has led the team in carries both of his seasons. Now with Ivory gone, Ingram seemingly healthy, and expectations for the team as a whole to run a bit more, not much has to change for Ingram to get to 200+ carries. He was on pace for approx. that many his rookie year.

Wait, let's please not say that part of the reason they were 13-3 in 2011 and 7-9 in 2012 was because of their time of possession.

They were 7-9 last year because their defense was historically bad. Their D in 2012 set an NFL record, most yards allowed in NFL history. They were also 2nd worst in points allowed. I am pretty sure that giving up the most yards in NFL history will cause issues with the time of possession. They gave up 115 more points in 2012. Giving up an extra TD a game causes teams to lose more games.

While 2011 was better, the Saints were still the #2 scoring offense in 2012. They sucked in 2012 because their D was historically bad. You might argue chicken and egg, but Ingram isn't that good, running more would not have stopped that D. They were just atrocious.

I watched Ingram last year (had Brees and Sproles on one team with Ingram on my bench) and every once in a while he showed a little something, but he never looked anything close to special to me. Sproles and Thomas always looked way more explosive to me. I just don't see much of a chance of Ingram really being a focal point. He may get most of the rushing carries, but I would think their offense would get worse if they gave Ingram more touches instead of Graham, Colston, Sproles, Moore and even Thomas.

In 2011, NO averaged 31:59 in TOP (6th best), rushed the ball 431 times, and had the 13th ranked defense (by points).

In 2012 they averaged 28:59 in TOP (6th worst), rushed the ball 370 times, and had the 2nd worst defense (by points).

You seriously think it was all a coincidence, played no part at all? Of course I'm going to argue chicken or egg, because obviously when defenses are on the field longer, they are more likely to give up more points.

Again, I'm not saying Ingram is great or is going to light the world on fire. All I'm saying is, it's likely he'll get more touches this season for a few reasons (including it not being likely that their defense will be historically bad again, regardless of what you want to attribute that to).

 

[FF Ninja]

The takeaway here is that:

1) ingram is a talented runner and the jury is not out yet on his ability to be an elite nfl back for various reasons.

2) his draft price has adjusted accordingly to his "bust" tag and so this year it won't kill you to take a hot on him in the 8th or 9th round and be wrong on him again.

At worst, barring injury, he should be at least a decent rb3/flex/bye week replacement for your squad which coincides with his ADP.

At best, the team finally starts to feature him and you busted out a high end rb2 (non ppr) in a high octane offense with a mod-late rd pick.

Ill take those chances. It won't kill my team if I'm wrong.

Good posting.

But it won't be recognized as such because people are convinced that the jury has returned and Ingram is guilty of sucking and is sentenced to watching Pierre Thomas steal his touches every week.

I've never been able to land Ingram before for a price I thought acceptable, but count me in as a buyer this year if more "fluff" keeps coming out and all the haters ignore it and keep his price suppressed.

Ummm, sorry, but he is guilty of sucking so far. A 1st round RB finishing 45th and 35th in non-PPR (far, far worse in PPR, which I play in all 3 leagues) is sucking. For those of us who play PPR, his floor is way worse than a RB3/flex play.

That said, he should do better this year, because Ivory won't get 200+ yards like he has the past two years. On the other side, I don't think that Mark Ingram is a talented NFL runner so far. 3.9 ypc when D's are 100% focusing on Brees is not good. Thomas has averaged 4.8ypc with the Saints and Sproles averaged 6.9 ypc in 2011 and 5.1 ypc in 2012. Brees has averaged around 8ypa with the Saints, so with those two RBs ypc and Brees' ypa, why would they put more of a focus on Ingram? I sure don't think some of the 1000 yard 8-9 TD projections are even close.

One quick question for everyone, is anyone worried about Sproles getting more carries? He was brought in by Payton just like Ingram was drafted by Payton. Sproles had twice as many carries in 2011 as he did in 2012. Maybe Payton will get back to given more carries to Sproles.

It has been mentioned many times that Ingram's carries have primarily been on short yardage/goal line carries. In those cases, the D is NOT focused 100% on Brees, they are focused on stopping Ingram from picking up the first down. This significantly lowers Ingram's YPC numbers.

Feel free to post those. He has almost 280 carries in the past two years and posts above it says that Ingram had 7 carries inside the 5 yard line. Are you saying those 7 carries are really the reason why his ypc aren't that great? Sproles has 17 TDs and Graham has 20 TDs the last two years. Both of them get more opportunities at the goal line than Ingram has, so even in short yardage teams are focusing on Brees as much as they are on Ingram. Hmmm, let's think about the D-Coordinator. Should we focus on Brees, who averages around 3 TDs passes a game or Ingram, who averages 0.3 TDs per game. Sorry, but unless you can show me that he averages well over 4 ypc on all his non-short yardage carries, I don't believe his ypc is affected when the guy has 7 goal line carries in 280 carries. I wouldn't even say that 7 goal line carries in 2 years qualifies as a short yardage back.

It isn't just the short yardage role that limits Ingram. It's the predictability of their offense when he's in the game. Last year he played 266 offensive snaps and he rushed the ball 156 times, so they ran the ball 59% of the time he was in the game. Pierre Thomas played 388 snaps and he rushed the ball 105 times, so they ran the ball 27% of the time he was in the game. You think defenses don't know this?! When Ingram is in the game the defense is keying to stop the run. When Pierre Thomas is in the game they are defending the pass. Sproles is even more unpredictable in the run game as he played 446 offensive snap with just 48 rushes (11%).

 

[Scooby1974]

The takeaway here is that:

1) ingram is a talented runner and the jury is not out yet on his ability to be an elite nfl back for various reasons.

2) his draft price has adjusted accordingly to his "bust" tag and so this year it won't kill you to take a hot on him in the 8th or 9th round and be wrong on him again.

At worst, barring injury, he should be at least a decent rb3/flex/bye week replacement for your squad which coincides with his ADP.

At best, the team finally starts to feature him and you busted out a high end rb2 (non ppr) in a high octane offense with a mod-late rd pick.

Ill take those chances. It won't kill my team if I'm wrong.

Good posting.

But it won't be recognized as such because people are convinced that the jury has returned and Ingram is guilty of sucking and is sentenced to watching Pierre Thomas steal his touches every week.

I've never been able to land Ingram before for a price I thought acceptable, but count me in as a buyer this year if more "fluff" keeps coming out and all the haters ignore it and keep his price suppressed.

Ummm, sorry, but he is guilty of sucking so far. A 1st round RB finishing 45th and 35th in non-PPR (far, far worse in PPR, which I play in all 3 leagues) is sucking. For those of us who play PPR, his floor is way worse than a RB3/flex play.

That said, he should do better this year, because Ivory won't get 200+ yards like he has the past two years. On the other side, I don't think that Mark Ingram is a talented NFL runner so far. 3.9 ypc when D's are 100% focusing on Brees is not good. Thomas has averaged 4.8ypc with the Saints and Sproles averaged 6.9 ypc in 2011 and 5.1 ypc in 2012. Brees has averaged around 8ypa with the Saints, so with those two RBs ypc and Brees' ypa, why would they put more of a focus on Ingram? I sure don't think some of the 1000 yard 8-9 TD projections are even close.

One quick question for everyone, is anyone worried about Sproles getting more carries? He was brought in by Payton just like Ingram was drafted by Payton. Sproles had twice as many carries in 2011 as he did in 2012. Maybe Payton will get back to given more carries to Sproles.

It has been mentioned many times that Ingram's carries have primarily been on short yardage/goal line carries. In those cases, the D is NOT focused 100% on Brees, they are focused on stopping Ingram from picking up the first down. This significantly lowers Ingram's YPC numbers.

Feel free to post those. He has almost 280 carries in the past two years and posts above it says that Ingram had 7 carries inside the 5 yard line. Are you saying those 7 carries are really the reason why his ypc aren't that great? Sproles has 17 TDs and Graham has 20 TDs the last two years. Both of them get more opportunities at the goal line than Ingram has, so even in short yardage teams are focusing on Brees as much as they are on Ingram. Hmmm, let's think about the D-Coordinator. Should we focus on Brees, who averages around 3 TDs passes a game or Ingram, who averages 0.3 TDs per game. Sorry, but unless you can show me that he averages well over 4 ypc on all his non-short yardage carries, I don't believe his ypc is affected when the guy has 7 goal line carries in 280 carries. I wouldn't even say that 7 goal line carries in 2 years qualifies as a short yardage back.

Are there sources that will break down how many short yardage chances NO has had total in the last two years as a team? 7 chances inside the 5 is fine, but how many did he have outside the 5? Where does NO's Oline rank when it comes to run blocking the past two years? How healthy has Ingram been the past two years? How close to 100% was he playing? Why do I specifically remember reading on many occasion about NO's unimaginative play calling and the Defenses basically knowing that when Ingram is in the game they run the majority of the time? So whether that is short yardage or not, Ingram was keyed on. In Short yardage the line is still going to be stacked with 8 or 9 in the box whether its a run or a pass.

There are simply too many variable for me to simply say the guy sucks.Will he light the world on fire this year and turn into Ray Rice? No. But can he very realistically produce like a Ridley/BGGE did in NE and put up 1100 and 10 TD's? I think it is very possible.

 

[Yitbos69]

The takeaway here is that:

1) ingram is a talented runner and the jury is not out yet on his ability to be an elite nfl back for various reasons.

2) his draft price has adjusted accordingly to his "bust" tag and so this year it won't kill you to take a hot on him in the 8th or 9th round and be wrong on him again.

At worst, barring injury, he should be at least a decent rb3/flex/bye week replacement for your squad which coincides with his ADP.

At best, the team finally starts to feature him and you busted out a high end rb2 (non ppr) in a high octane offense with a mod-late rd pick.

Ill take those chances. It won't kill my team if I'm wrong.

Good posting.

But it won't be recognized as such because people are convinced that the jury has returned and Ingram is guilty of sucking and is sentenced to watching Pierre Thomas steal his touches every week.

I've never been able to land Ingram before for a price I thought acceptable, but count me in as a buyer this year if more "fluff" keeps coming out and all the haters ignore it and keep his price suppressed.

Ummm, sorry, but he is guilty of sucking so far. A 1st round RB finishing 45th and 35th in non-PPR (far, far worse in PPR, which I play in all 3 leagues) is sucking. For those of us who play PPR, his floor is way worse than a RB3/flex play.That said, he should do better this year, because Ivory won't get 200+ yards like he has the past two years. On the other side, I don't think that Mark Ingram is a talented NFL runner so far. 3.9 ypc when D's are 100% focusing on Brees is not good. Thomas has averaged 4.8ypc with the Saints and Sproles averaged 6.9 ypc in 2011 and 5.1 ypc in 2012. Brees has averaged around 8ypa with the Saints, so with those two RBs ypc and Brees' ypa, why would they put more of a focus on Ingram? I sure don't think some of the 1000 yard 8-9 TD projections are even close.

One quick question for everyone, is anyone worried about Sproles getting more carries? He was brought in by Payton just like Ingram was drafted by Payton. Sproles had twice as many carries in 2011 as he did in 2012. Maybe Payton will get back to given more carries to Sproles.

It has been mentioned many times that Ingram's carries have primarily been on short yardage/goal line carries. In those cases, the D is NOT focused 100% on Brees, they are focused on stopping Ingram from picking up the first down. This significantly lowers Ingram's YPC numbers.

Feel free to post those. He has almost 280 carries in the past two years and posts above it says that Ingram had 7 carries inside the 5 yard line. Are you saying those 7 carries are really the reason why his ypc aren't that great? Sproles has 17 TDs and Graham has 20 TDs the last two years. Both of them get more opportunities at the goal line than Ingram has, so even in short yardage teams are focusing on Brees as much as they are on Ingram. Hmmm, let's think about the D-Coordinator. Should we focus on Brees, who averages around 3 TDs passes a game or Ingram, who averages 0.3 TDs per game. Sorry, but unless you can show me that he averages well over 4 ypc on all his non-short yardage carries, I don't believe his ypc is affected when the guy has 7 goal line carries in 280 carries. I wouldn't even say that 7 goal line carries in 2 years qualifies as a short yardage back.

It isn't just the short yardage role that limits Ingram. It's the predictability of their offense when he's in the game. Last year he played 266 offensive snaps and he rushed the ball 156 times, so they ran the ball 59% of the time he was in the game. Pierre Thomas played 388 snaps and he rushed the ball 105 times, so they ran the ball 27% of the time he was in the game. You think defenses don't know this?! When Ingram is in the game the defense is keying to stop the run. When Pierre Thomas is in the game they are defending the pass. Sproles is even more unpredictable in the run game as he played 446 offensive snap with just 48 rushes (11%).

Seems that sproles is even more predictable with 89% of the time you don't have to worry that NO will run the ball when sproles is in game

 

[Scooby1974]

The takeaway here is that:

1) ingram is a talented runner and the jury is not out yet on his ability to be an elite nfl back for various reasons.

2) his draft price has adjusted accordingly to his "bust" tag and so this year it won't kill you to take a hot on him in the 8th or 9th round and be wrong on him again.

At worst, barring injury, he should be at least a decent rb3/flex/bye week replacement for your squad which coincides with his ADP.

At best, the team finally starts to feature him and you busted out a high end rb2 (non ppr) in a high octane offense with a mod-late rd pick.

Ill take those chances. It won't kill my team if I'm wrong.

Good posting.

But it won't be recognized as such because people are convinced that the jury has returned and Ingram is guilty of sucking and is sentenced to watching Pierre Thomas steal his touches every week.

I've never been able to land Ingram before for a price I thought acceptable, but count me in as a buyer this year if more "fluff" keeps coming out and all the haters ignore it and keep his price suppressed.

Ummm, sorry, but he is guilty of sucking so far. A 1st round RB finishing 45th and 35th in non-PPR (far, far worse in PPR, which I play in all 3 leagues) is sucking. For those of us who play PPR, his floor is way worse than a RB3/flex play.

That said, he should do better this year, because Ivory won't get 200+ yards like he has the past two years. On the other side, I don't think that Mark Ingram is a talented NFL runner so far. 3.9 ypc when D's are 100% focusing on Brees is not good. Thomas has averaged 4.8ypc with the Saints and Sproles averaged 6.9 ypc in 2011 and 5.1 ypc in 2012. Brees has averaged around 8ypa with the Saints, so with those two RBs ypc and Brees' ypa, why would they put more of a focus on Ingram? I sure don't think some of the 1000 yard 8-9 TD projections are even close.

One quick question for everyone, is anyone worried about Sproles getting more carries? He was brought in by Payton just like Ingram was drafted by Payton. Sproles had twice as many carries in 2011 as he did in 2012. Maybe Payton will get back to given more carries to Sproles.

It has been mentioned many times that Ingram's carries have primarily been on short yardage/goal line carries. In those cases, the D is NOT focused 100% on Brees, they are focused on stopping Ingram from picking up the first down. This significantly lowers Ingram's YPC numbers.

Feel free to post those. He has almost 280 carries in the past two years and posts above it says that Ingram had 7 carries inside the 5 yard line. Are you saying those 7 carries are really the reason why his ypc aren't that great? Sproles has 17 TDs and Graham has 20 TDs the last two years. Both of them get more opportunities at the goal line than Ingram has, so even in short yardage teams are focusing on Brees as much as they are on Ingram. Hmmm, let's think about the D-Coordinator. Should we focus on Brees, who averages around 3 TDs passes a game or Ingram, who averages 0.3 TDs per game. Sorry, but unless you can show me that he averages well over 4 ypc on all his non-short yardage carries, I don't believe his ypc is affected when the guy has 7 goal line carries in 280 carries. I wouldn't even say that 7 goal line carries in 2 years qualifies as a short yardage back.

It isn't just the short yardage role that limits Ingram. It's the predictability of their offense when he's in the game. Last year he played 266 offensive snaps and he rushed the ball 156 times, so they ran the ball 59% of the time he was in the game. Pierre Thomas played 388 snaps and he rushed the ball 105 times, so they ran the ball 27% of the time he was in the game. You think defenses don't know this?! When Ingram is in the game the defense is keying to stop the run. When Pierre Thomas is in the game they are defending the pass. Sproles is even more unpredictable in the run game as he played 446 offensive snap with just 48 rushes (11%).

Thanks, Ninja...this is what I was referring to. It accounts for much more than just short yardage carries. If Payton has recognized this, and it sounds like he might have, we could see a slightly different brand of playcalling on his part that will help open up some imagination when Ingram is in the game. Add to that a fully healthy player, and we might get to see the guy NO moved up in the draft for 2 years ago.

 

[Grahamburn]

I'm not in here trying to bash Ingram.

I just have a problem grasping why an offensive juggernaut would change their approach. The Saints and Sean Payton will call the plays and play the players that give them the best opportunity to score points. To me, those players have been some combination of Thomas, Sproles, and Ingram in a fairly even split touch wise.

If it ain't broke...

Because going 7-9 isn't the definition of doing it right? Some people believe that a power running game can protect a lead or hide a bad defense.

Anyway, it's a false premise. As FFninja pointed out, last year was a bit of a deviation from 2011's rushing numbers. 398 carries is nothing to sneeze at if you have the RB that can get the majority of those carries plus add in a few receptions here and there on top.

For where Ingram is being drafted, if he can land north of 200 carries, he has the potential to outperform his draft position.

So that's the question, can he do so?

I don't fault someone for taking the under. But there are encouraging signs that indicate he can. Even when he was stinking up the joint, he was still getting more rushing touches than Pierre. And if you go back and look, he wasn't considered a liability as a receiving back coming out of college.

Just because someone doesn't utilize a back out the backfield much doesn't mean the back sucks at it. Go read the scouting reports on Alfred Morris.

If Ingram is showing superior skill and talent to Pierre, he could very well go north of 200 carries and also grab a bigger portion of the receiving as well.

Do you think they went 7-9 because of their offense?

Even if you want to arbitrarily give Ingram 200 carries, what indication do we have he's going to do more than the 3.9 career average he has now? He looks good in camp, great.. I already pointed out that they've said that about him two years in a row.

Let's just throw some receptions on top too? He's going to have to do much more with his touches on the football if he wants to keep Sproles and Thomas on the bench.

Thomas has a career average of 4.8. Payton saying he wants to get back to running the football doesn't mean Ingram is the only beneficiary of that. Some of you seem to be struggling with the fact that for Ingram to get more touches, Thomas and Sproles (more productive players) have to get less.

Sounds like a lot of dynasty owners still holding out hope and early drafters who now own Ingram grasping at straws. Alfred Morris comparisons? Come on guys...

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Granted Pierre Thomas is still in his prime (turns 29 in December) but he's had his fair share of dings (only played one 16 game season in 6 year career) and the staff seems fit to keep him as a role player - Ingram's 156 carries last year eclipsed Pierre's career high of 147 - achieved back in 2009. It should be pointed out that Mike Bell was given 172 carries that year despite playing in 1 less game than Pierre Thomas. So for all of those.people singing Pierre Thomas' praises, you're wasting your breath. If it hasn't happened yet, it isn't going to happen. The guy is talented but but appears he is destined to suffer the dreaded Mewelde Moore fate.

I don't think anyone sees Pierre Thomas as a star, just as a hinderance to Ingram's production. Thomas may not get as many carries as Ingram does, but he'll still get his 150 or so and more importantly he'll take snaps away from Ingram. Thomas is the "jack of all trades" portion of the Saints RBBC. They use him as a runner and in the passing game. Until Ingram starts pushing Thomas aside for additional work in the passing game, his ceiling will be limited.

I never said they see him as a star. I'm guessing you don't and your response highlights the flaw in the thinking of people who worry too much about Thomas limiting Ingram. You guys don't seem to have any grasp on the numbers. Hell, you just read what I wrote and still said something about Thomas getting 150 or so carries. Last year Thomas got 105 carries. The year before, when Ingram was injured and the Saints RBs rushed the ball 398 times, Thomas got 110 carries.

I don't know why they limit him so much, but they do. With Payton back and if Ingram is healthy for 16 games, I will be shocked if Thomas eclipses 100 carries this year. I'll bet you anything that he won't touch the 150 you mentioned.

Well we were working under the assumption that New Orleans was going to run the ball more - and that doesn't benefit Ingram exclusively - but perhaps the 150 carries should have been touches - the bigger point though is snaps. Ingram will need to keep Thomas and Sprole off the field.

Anyway, I don'twant to dismiss Ingram outright, as I said I liked him coming into the league and think he's a decent RB3 target and a great RB4 target in redraft - was just trying to insert some counterpoints into the argument as some people were getting a little overally giddy about the return of Peyton meaning a boatload of touches for Ingram, when in reality Peyton is more of a passing game guy anyway. I do think the Saints will try and run more - but that could also make Thomas a great late round flier.

 

[ODannyBoy]

I didn't say it means much, but it is one less talented competitor for him to share with. Ingram played every game last season, so it stands to reason that if Ivory wasn't there, Ingram would have had a few more carries, unless you think they would have given the same amount to the 5th string RB in those games.

Thomas and Ivory were both UDFAs so I wouldn't put it past the Saints to give carries to the next man up, if Ivory wasn't available. Travis Cadet is more of a replacement for Sproles than one who would take carries away from Ingram, so maybe Khiry Robinson a 220 pound rookie out of West Texas A&M becomes their new Ivory.

Their draft status (or lack thereof, as it were) is as unrelated to the carry distribution as anyone can get.

If your argument is that Ivory's carries are going to go to someone other than Ingram because Ingram needs some breather time during the games, that's a fair point. But wouldn't Pierre be the beneficiary in that scenario?

But any implication that the Saints, by design, try to siphon off carries to guys lower on the totem pole based on some principal or plan to get those guys some action is misguided.

What playing PT and Ivory tells you is that the Saints will play the guy who proves himself regardless of where he was drafted. The thing is, they seem to keep sticking with Ingram despite those of us in the fantasy world constantly gnashing our teeth. I think that means they see something there. And this may the year that it comes together for him.

 

[FF Ninja]

Granted Pierre Thomas is still in his prime (turns 29 in December) but he's had his fair share of dings (only played one 16 game season in 6 year career) and the staff seems fit to keep him as a role player - Ingram's 156 carries last year eclipsed Pierre's career high of 147 - achieved back in 2009. It should be pointed out that Mike Bell was given 172 carries that year despite playing in 1 less game than Pierre Thomas. So for all of those.people singing Pierre Thomas' praises, you're wasting your breath. If it hasn't happened yet, it isn't going to happen. The guy is talented but but appears he is destined to suffer the dreaded Mewelde Moore fate.

I don't think anyone sees Pierre Thomas as a star, just as a hinderance to Ingram's production. Thomas may not get as many carries as Ingram does, but he'll still get his 150 or so and more importantly he'll take snaps away from Ingram. Thomas is the "jack of all trades" portion of the Saints RBBC. They use him as a runner and in the passing game. Until Ingram starts pushing Thomas aside for additional work in the passing game, his ceiling will be limited.

I never said they see him as a star. I'm guessing you don't and your response highlights the flaw in the thinking of people who worry too much about Thomas limiting Ingram. You guys don't seem to have any grasp on the numbers. Hell, you just read what I wrote and still said something about Thomas getting 150 or so carries. Last year Thomas got 105 carries. The year before, when Ingram was injured and the Saints RBs rushed the ball 398 times, Thomas got 110 carries.

I don't know why they limit him so much, but they do. With Payton back and if Ingram is healthy for 16 games, I will be shocked if Thomas eclipses 100 carries this year. I'll bet you anything that he won't touch the 150 you mentioned.

Well we were working under the assumption that New Orleans was going to run the ball more - and that doesn't benefit Ingram exclusively - but perhaps the 150 carries should have been touches - the bigger point though is snaps. Ingram will need to keep Thomas and Sprole off the field.

Anyway, I don'twant to dismiss Ingram outright, as I said I liked him coming into the league and think he's a decent RB3 target and a great RB4 target in redraft - was just trying to insert some counterpoints into the argument as some people were getting a little overally giddy about the return of Peyton meaning a boatload of touches for Ingram, when in reality Peyton is more of a passing game guy anyway. I do think the Saints will try and run more - but that could also make Thomas a great late round flier.

An increase in rushing attempts wouldn't benefit Ingram exclusively, but he would be the primary beneficiary as Thomas has never gotten many carries. If they run the ball about 400 times, Ingram's value will increase much more than PT's. Which is why I don't think PT is a great late round flyer unless you are expecting an Ingram/Sproles injury. By now, we pretty much know what we're going to get with PT.

I haven't read the entire thread, but I haven't see any crazy carries projections for Ingram. Given his 12.75 carries per game in the last 8 games of 2012 and his 12.2 carries per game his injury plagued rookie year, I think 200 carries (12.5/gm) is conservative and 220 (13.75 - one more per game than last year's second half) is not the least bit unrealistic.

But you are right that he needs to start stealing snaps back from Thomas and Sproles. The predictability of his role on offense is crazy. I guess it sets up the play action pass very well, but it kills his productivity. After realizing that they run on 59% of his snaps, I find his 3.9 ypc much less worrisome than I did before.

 

[humpback]

Do you think they went 7-9 because of their offense?

Even if you want to arbitrarily give Ingram 200 carries, what indication do we have he's going to do more than the 3.9 career average he has now? He looks good in camp, great.. I already pointed out that they've said that about him two years in a row.

Let's just throw some receptions on top too? He's going to have to do much more with his touches on the football if he wants to keep Sproles and Thomas on the bench.

Thomas has a career average of 4.8. Payton saying he wants to get back to running the football doesn't mean Ingram is the only beneficiary of that. Some of you seem to be struggling with the fact that for Ingram to get more touches, Thomas and Sproles (more productive players) have to get less.

Sounds like a lot of dynasty owners still holding out hope and early drafters who now own Ingram grasping at straws. Alfred Morris comparisons? Come on guys...

The bolded sentence is 100% false. It would help obviously, but it certainly doesn't have to happen.

I agree, some people are certainly biased in his favor, but plenty are on the opposite side as well. I'm not a huge fan myself, but I'm not going to write him off just yet either. I'm interested to see how it plays out this year.

 

[Grahamburn]

Do you think they went 7-9 because of their offense?

Even if you want to arbitrarily give Ingram 200 carries, what indication do we have he's going to do more than the 3.9 career average he has now? He looks good in camp, great.. I already pointed out that they've said that about him two years in a row.

Let's just throw some receptions on top too? He's going to have to do much more with his touches on the football if he wants to keep Sproles and Thomas on the bench.

Thomas has a career average of 4.8. Payton saying he wants to get back to running the football doesn't mean Ingram is the only beneficiary of that. Some of you seem to be struggling with the fact that for Ingram to get more touches, Thomas and Sproles (more productive players) have to get less.

Sounds like a lot of dynasty owners still holding out hope and early drafters who now own Ingram grasping at straws. Alfred Morris comparisons? Come on guys...

The bolded sentence is 100% false. It would help obviously, but it certainly doesn't have to happen.

So they're going to throw less when they have Drew Brees? Got it.

 

[humpback]

Do you think they went 7-9 because of their offense?

Even if you want to arbitrarily give Ingram 200 carries, what indication do we have he's going to do more than the 3.9 career average he has now? He looks good in camp, great.. I already pointed out that they've said that about him two years in a row.

Let's just throw some receptions on top too? He's going to have to do much more with his touches on the football if he wants to keep Sproles and Thomas on the bench.

Thomas has a career average of 4.8. Payton saying he wants to get back to running the football doesn't mean Ingram is the only beneficiary of that. Some of you seem to be struggling with the fact that for Ingram to get more touches, Thomas and Sproles (more productive players) have to get less.

Sounds like a lot of dynasty owners still holding out hope and early drafters who now own Ingram grasping at straws. Alfred Morris comparisons? Come on guys...

The bolded sentence is 100% false. It would help obviously, but it certainly doesn't have to happen.

So they're going to throw less when they have Drew Brees? Got it.

They don't have to throw less for him to have more touches either. No, you obviously don't "got it".

 

[Grahamburn]

Clearly I'm then.

 

[Keith Lewis]

What do they say about fighting on the Internet?

 

[karmarooster]

This thread needs to die.

 

[ODannyBoy]

I'm not in here trying to bash Ingram.

I just have a problem grasping why an offensive juggernaut would change their approach. The Saints and Sean Payton will call the plays and play the players that give them the best opportunity to score points. To me, those players have been some combination of Thomas, Sproles, and Ingram in a fairly even split touch wise.

If it ain't broke...

Because going 7-9 isn't the definition of doing it right? Some people believe that a power running game can protect a lead or hide a bad defense.

Anyway, it's a false premise. As FFninja pointed out, last year was a bit of a deviation from 2011's rushing numbers. 398 carries is nothing to sneeze at if you have the RB that can get the majority of those carries plus add in a few receptions here and there on top.

For where Ingram is being drafted, if he can land north of 200 carries, he has the potential to outperform his draft position.

So that's the question, can he do so?

I don't fault someone for taking the under. But there are encouraging signs that indicate he can. Even when he was stinking up the joint, he was still getting more rushing touches than Pierre. And if you go back and look, he wasn't considered a liability as a receiving back coming out of college.

Just because someone doesn't utilize a back out the backfield much doesn't mean the back sucks at it. Go read the scouting reports on Alfred Morris.

If Ingram is showing superior skill and talent to Pierre, he could very well go north of 200 carries and also grab a bigger portion of the receiving as well.

Do you think they went 7-9 because of their offense?

Even if you want to arbitrarily give Ingram 200 carries, what indication do we have he's going to do more than the 3.9 career average he has now? He looks good in camp, great.. I already pointed out that they've said that about him two years in a row.

Let's just throw some receptions on top too? He's going to have to do much more with his touches on the football if he wants to keep Sproles and Thomas on the bench.

Thomas has a career average of 4.8. Payton saying he wants to get back to running the football doesn't mean Ingram is the only beneficiary of that. Some of you seem to be struggling with the fact that for Ingram to get more touches, Thomas and Sproles (more productive players) have to get less.

Sounds like a lot of dynasty owners still holding out hope and early drafters who now own Ingram grasping at straws. Alfred Morris comparisons? Come on guys...

When your defense stinks, how does that high scoring offense get you into the playoffs? It doesn't always. It gets you 7-9. So, no, it isn't necessarily working other than for fantasy geeks like us. It will get Payton fired if that trend continues because wins and playoff appearances are more important than fantasy stats. And there is still that school of thought, even though the league passes a lot more, that believes a strong running game can hide a bad defense by keeping the opponent's offense off the field.

Now, his renewed commitment to the run could be coachspeak. I recognize that. But there's a breakdown out there that shows how he did use the running game more in years prior than did his replacements in 2012. So I think a return to 2011 is more likely to be the case for Ingram in 2013.

Here are the numbers for total plays versus rushing attempts during Payton's tenure with comments on the distribution:

2012: 1067-371 (Ingram had 156 carries to Pierre's 105 and Ivory's 40)

2011: 1117-431 (Ingram has 122 to Pierre's 110 to Ivory's 79)

2010: 1067-380 (Ivory had 137 carries to Pierre's 83)

2009: 1032-468 (Bell had 172 carries to 147 for Thomas despite Thomas having a 1.6 ypc advantage over Bell)

2008: 1047-398 (Pierre had 129 with both Deuce and Bush kicking over 100 each)

2007: 1060-392 (Bush had 157 carries, Stecker had 115 with Deuce getting hurt)

2006: 1075-472 (Deuce had 244 carries while Brees was the QB)

So you can see that 2012 was a low water mark in terms of running plays. Third highest number of play's called in a season, yet the lowest number of rushing plays.

You can also see what Payton tried to do in 2011, the year Ingram was drafted. Pierre's usage that season was pretty consistent. He only hit double digit carries once (10 carries) that whole 16 game season. That was whether Ingram or Ivory was active. His average was 6.875 carries per game. So Ivory's 79 touches in 6 games in 2011 are pretty much direct replacement for Ingram as Ingram was inactive those 6 games that Ivory played. Ingram's carries plus Ivory's carries total 201 carries in 2011. And Ingram was on pace for 195 if you extrapolate his 2011 numbers to 16 games.

That's why there is 200+ carry potential for Ingram. That was the way things were headed in 2011 and then 2012 was just a cluster---- all the way around. With Payton back at the helm and Ingram looking healthy, it won't be hard at all to hit 200 carries.

I know that PT has a better yards per carry than does Ingram. And so does Sean Payton. Yet they (the coaches) keep giving Ingram the bigger share of the carries. They are doing that for a reason, even if that reason isn't apparent to us. So at the end of the day you can keep talking about "more productive players" all you want but the Saints choose to give Ingram the bigger share of the rushing touches and are giving him 1st team reps in this camp.

 

[Grahamburn]

I think I will continue to talk about the "more productive players," and will therefore be leaving this thread for now.

 

[humpback]

Clearly I'm then.

This is beyond ridiculous at this point, I've already explained how it can happen. They threw the ball approx. the same amount in 2011 as 2012 (9 more attempts in 2012), yet they ran the ball 61 more times in 2011 than 2012. As you can see, they ran 52 more plays in 2011, so if they have a similar season, Brees can throw the same amount, Thomas and Sproles can get the same amount (or even more), and Ingram can get more.

Before you respond, I'm not arguing that it's definitely going to happen that way, just saying that it's entirely possible. He doesn't have to take touches away from those guys in order to see an increase.

 

[KellysHeroes]

most of the time when a player is hyped like this, especially one thats been in the league for a couple of yrs and haven't done much, its usually a disappointment.

 

[Man of Zen]

most of the time when a player is hyped like this, especially one thats been in the league for a couple of yrs and haven't done much, its usually a disappointment.

I've not heard this before. Recent examples?