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Mark Ingram (3 Viewers)
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SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
Not advocating for Ingram (have not drafted him myself), but I would take him over Trent. Not sure what you mean about pedigree because they're pretty similar there, unless you mean TR being picked at the top of the 1st as opposed to near the bottom like Ingram. Also Ingram's ypc has been trending up, while TR has been flat at right about 3.0. And Ingram -looks- better, running hard, with vision finally (though not for particularly long gains still). I think i'd take Ingram or Pierre then Khiry all over TR.
I will add that I think FF should be fun experience and watching Trent is 100% miserable from just a plain football POV. Ingram may give way to Khiry during games, and Pierre will be catching a ton of balls this year, but I could just as easily see Bradshaw and Herron taking over from Trent.
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ourmanflint
Footballguy
Seems the Ingram love is getting a little too weird around here. Ingram over Colston? Ingram might lead the Saints in rushing this year. So what? What is that like 600-700 yds and 5 TD's?
Pierre looks very good still and Payton looks content to air it out yet again.
Ingram may have had some good plays in the preseason but don't overreact.
Casting Couch
Footballguy
Ingram looks a heckuva lot better than Pierre going forward imo.
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
If you are in a position where you have to start Ingram (even in your flex) for week 1 then I feel sorry for you...your team is in trouble.
I drafted him (reluctantly), but after 3 years of teasing me in the preseason and then flopping in the regular season his #### is planted firmly on my bench. He's going to have to play himself into the lineup
I drafted him (reluctantly), but after 3 years of teasing me in the preseason and then flopping in the regular season his #### is planted firmly on my bench. He's going to have to play himself into the lineup
bulger2holt
Footballguy
Milkman
Footballguy
Idk Ingram's 24 and P. Thomas is 28/29. If Ingram can just be league average at catching passes out of the backfield and keep running the ball like he has I think it's close. We have no idea where Ingram ends up next year. For instance what if M. Ball starts fumbling again and Denver decides to sign Ingram with Peyton deciding to play 1-2 more years?
Pierre Thomas is the RB to own in PPR this year though. I mean there is a legit chance he ends up #1 rb in that format this year. It's a long shot but it def could happen.
Proust Loves Cake
Footballguy
Milkman
Footballguy
100 catches is in range for Pierre Thomas dude. It's the high point of his likely outcome but it could happen.
160 rushes for 700 yards plus 6 TDS then add 100 catches for 700 yards and another 5-6 td's.
What's that add up to? 312 total points in PPR. He could hit those numbers. He's def undervalued. Like I said it's a long shot but those kind of numbers put him at RB4 overall last year.
160 rushes for 700 yards plus 6 TDS then add 100 catches for 700 yards and another 5-6 td's.
What's that add up to? 312 total points in PPR. He could hit those numbers. He's def undervalued. Like I said it's a long shot but those kind of numbers put him at RB4 overall last year.
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Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
Milkman
Footballguy
Yes. I did say long shot but def in play in my original post I think. With Sproles there he caught 77. Very good chance he catches more. If he stays healthy Thomas is a lock for top 10 RB in PPR formats. If Things go right for him top 5 is in play and if Ingram gets hurt slight chance he could be #1 RB in PPR formats. It's in play imo.
Milkman
Footballguy
Let's not be shy here. Pierre Thomas could break the record for passes caught by a rb this year. The targets are there. Ingram doesn't normally catch to many passes. Khiry Robinson hasn't exactly been a ball of fire. It wouldn't blow me away to see Pierre Thomas catch 110 passes this year. It's certainly not out of the question.
Sake-Bombers
Footballguy
Wait, is this schtick? Or is there a segment of the community I was unaware of that really thinks Pierre Thomas could have 100+ receptions.
I want to like the New Orleans RB, there's just too many of them to know who I'd want week to week.
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
If he can catch eight, nine or 10 passes a game, he will have great value in PPR leagues.
Milkman
Footballguy
The fact is it's not a question of "if" Pierre Thomas's targets are going up it's a question of by "how much" are Pierre Thomas's targets going up. He caught 77 balls last year and his targets are going up. This isn't rocket science.
Buying him now before it's to late is the shark move.
Buying him now before it's to late is the shark move.
LawFitz
Footballguy
I don't disagree with your general thoughts, though we do have a difference in order of magnitude.
B. Cooks is going to get a lot of those Sproles' looks. His presence makes it very difficult for me to envision PT getting 100 catches. 70-80, though, as an upside number, I'm totally on board with.
Chaka
Footballguy
I think the mistake many people are making is assuming that because the Saints lost Sproles & Moore and their 108 receptions that those receptions are automatically going to be shifted to Thomas & Cooks (among others). I think it is possible, likely even, that Payton is going to try and convert half those receptions, at least, into rushing attempts. Payton's best teams ran the ball 430-470 times and I think he wants to go back to that formula.
Milkman
Footballguy
There is 108 targets sitting there. There is also a number of ways those targets could be divided up or as suggested earlier they could be converted into runs instead. Here are some possibilities.
Cooks takes the Lions share of these targets say 80 of them with the remaining 30 being divided between Khiry Robinson and Pierre Thomas. That puts Pierre Thomas at about 85 catches. Not bad.
Cooks gets 60 targets and Khiry Robinson and Pierre Thomas split 50 targets. Puts Pierre Thomas at 90 catches.
Cooks gets 70 targets, Khiry Robinson is the odd man out, and Pierre Thomas gets an additional 40 targets putting him over 100 catches. Def could happen.
They run the ball more with Ingram and Thomas, Cooks gets 70 targets and Pierre Thomas gets the same targets as he did last year but 15-20 more carries.
Lots of positives in there for Pierre Thomas. Just saying.
Cooks takes the Lions share of these targets say 80 of them with the remaining 30 being divided between Khiry Robinson and Pierre Thomas. That puts Pierre Thomas at about 85 catches. Not bad.
Cooks gets 60 targets and Khiry Robinson and Pierre Thomas split 50 targets. Puts Pierre Thomas at 90 catches.
Cooks gets 70 targets, Khiry Robinson is the odd man out, and Pierre Thomas gets an additional 40 targets putting him over 100 catches. Def could happen.
They run the ball more with Ingram and Thomas, Cooks gets 70 targets and Pierre Thomas gets the same targets as he did last year but 15-20 more carries.
Lots of positives in there for Pierre Thomas. Just saying.
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Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
I would be very very very careful in assuming that Pierre's snap counts (and as result, targets) will rise. (Played 50% or snaps/564 snaps or 35 a game)
Ingram only played 169 snaps in 11 games (or ~16 per game/15% of snaps)
Khiry Robinson only played 72 snaps in 10 games (7 per game/6.5%)
Sproles played 357 snaps in 15 games (23 per game/32%). My money based upon what we've seen this preseason is that Ingram/Robinson will see the most significant RB snap increases and we'll see Cooks filling the routes Sproles ran)
Pierre is solid pass catcher & no reason to think he won't catch 50+ balls this year, but the big thing he'll have to prove is he can run routes like Sproles. (I have my doubts here and think that's where Cooks will come into play)
I think owners should be absolutely thrilled if Pierre can repeat 2013.
Ingram only played 169 snaps in 11 games (or ~16 per game/15% of snaps)
Khiry Robinson only played 72 snaps in 10 games (7 per game/6.5%)
Sproles played 357 snaps in 15 games (23 per game/32%). My money based upon what we've seen this preseason is that Ingram/Robinson will see the most significant RB snap increases and we'll see Cooks filling the routes Sproles ran)
Pierre is solid pass catcher & no reason to think he won't catch 50+ balls this year, but the big thing he'll have to prove is he can run routes like Sproles. (I have my doubts here and think that's where Cooks will come into play)
I think owners should be absolutely thrilled if Pierre can repeat 2013.id gladly bet on pierre thomas catching less than 4.8/game next yr. his yr was an outlier. certainly not impossible, but i dont think its likely. look for 50-60 catch floor with that sort of upside.
Alonzo Mosely
Footballguy
Chaka
Footballguy
You forgot the options that the Saints could choose to punt 108 more times or they could throw the ball at a picture of Reggie Bush's nuts 108 times.
Just trying to be thorough.
I will agree with Milkman that it is well within the realm of possibility for Pierre Thomas to catch 100 passes this year. I don't think it's going to happen, but that NO offense throws a *TON* of passes to RBs, and if Pierre Thomas is the guy who soaks up all those targets, he's going to put up massive receiving numbers. If you had told me that you had a crystal ball and you knew for a fact that one NFL RB was going to catch 100 balls this year, and you asked me to place odds on which one it would be, Jamaal Charles would be my first choice... but Pierre Thomas would probably be my second.
Milkman
Footballguy
That's kind of where I'm at. I don't think it's likely but it's a possible outcome.
Maybe, but the Saints love throwing the ball to RBs under Payton. Here are the RB target numbers for every season since Payton came to town, as well as the top 3 RBs those years by total yards gained:
213 (Reggie Bush, Deuce McAllister, Aaron Stecker)
189 (Reggie Bush, Aaron Stecker, Deuce McAllister)
166 (Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush, Deuce McAllister)
139 (Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush, Mike Bell)
135 (Chris Ivory, Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush)
194 (Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas, Mark Ingram)
194 (Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas, Mark Ingram)
203 (Pierre Thomas, Darren Sproles, Mark Ingram)
(average = 179)
In his first two years, Reggie Bush put up 88 receptions and was on pace for 97 receptions, basically as the only receiving threat in an offense that loved throwing to its RBs. Darren Sproles had 86 receptions his first year, was on pace for 92 his second year, and had 71 last year as New Orleans featured two different RBs who both topped 70 receptions. Pierre Thomas is capable of having that kind of 90+ catch season that New Orleans has churned out in the past, and 100+ isn't impossible. He almost certainly won't, but it's absolutely within the realm of possibility.
New Orleans has ranked in the top 5 in both points and yards five times under Sean Payton. Those years were 2006, 2008, 2009, 2011, and 2012. During those five seasons, they averaged... 181 targets to RBs, pretty much bang-on their average in the other seasons. That New Orleans offense has historically just been good for about 180 targets a season. Sometimes it fluctuates up, sometimes it fluctuates down, but that's the long-term average.
Edit to add: Payton's Saints have topped 180 targets to RBs five times during his tenure. Over that same span, the entire league combined has only had one other team go over that threshold- last year's Andy Reid / Jamaal Charles / Dexter McCluster Chiefs. Go all the way back to 2002 (as far back as I have target data), and the only other team to join them are the '03 Michael Pittman / Thomas Jones Buccaneers.
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Sake-Bombers
Footballguy
Hey, this is why I'm here, apologies if I came across harsh. Those numbers seem outrageous to me, but finding out the thinking and rationale behind them at least is making me open my eyes and to PT a bit more, and if I don't go after him, I now see better how others are valuing him.
I am thinking Ingram gets enough opportunity to either capitalize or flop. Seems like PT is worth roster tong regardless. And Robinson ready to replace Ingram if need be and will probably have at least one really good game but who knows which one. That's just my speculation obviously.
MoveToSkypager
Footballguy
OP, please change title back to its original. Thanks
Chaka
Footballguy
You're preaching to the choir man. I was all over those numbers in the Vereen thread (LSS I wondered why people were going nuts over Vereen in PPR leagues and completely ignoring PT who could be had much later).
But I also firmly believe that Payton and the Saints will try to run the ball 450 times this year s[SIZE=14.2857141494751px]o they would either need to run 60 more plays this year than last or there will be fewer pass attempts. Still plenty for Pierre to put up some great PPR numbers though because no one throws to RBs like Payton.[/SIZE]
Gopher State
Footballguy
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
MoveToSkypager
Footballguy
Alonzo Mosely
Footballguy
MoveToSkypager
Footballguy
Alonzo Mosely
Footballguy
MoveToSkypager
Footballguy
BustedKnuckles
Footballguy
BustedKnuckles
Footballguy
Not so sure this is an outlier, or unsustainable, as it is a product of the system. Without Sproles and crew there any more, Pierre saw a drastic reduction in routes over the middle -- which are higher traffic, with lower completion rates -- and a corresponding increase in undefended routes in the flats.
Since the Sproles role seems to belong solely to him at this point, I wouldn't look for a big return to lower percentage plays. I think they're happy to feed him the ball off to the sides and let him create. He's pretty sure-handed, so I wouldn't fear a big dip.
Got anything funny?
With a few days till kickoff, don't waste half a page "what"ing each other inanely. Doesn't seem too much to ask. If it makes you laugh, by all means PM the hell out of each other and get your kicks.
Chaka
Footballguy
Not buying it Sproles caught 80% of his targets in San Diego (146 of 182) and 76% in New Orleans (232 of 304).
Pierre always ran similar routes to Sproles (actually Sproles ran similar routes to Thomas as PT was in NO before Sproles). 92% receptions is an outlier by any standard, 82% is still pretty incredible though.
