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Marlon Brown - let's discuss (1 Viewer)

Ghost Rider

Footballguy
Anyone else on board with this guy as a super sleeper this year? Someone has to catch balls in Baltimore besides Torrey Smith, Jacoby Jones is not a real number 2 WR, and Brown did well last week playing with Flacco, who seems to like him, so I think he is one of those sneaky late picks that will work out well for fantasy players who took a shot. I've got him on two teams so far ($1 in both auctions).

 
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Khy

Footballguy
You spelled his name wrong its Marlon. That aside, I'm not sure how impactful he'll be. I snagged him for the minimum auction bid off waivers in my one dynasty league. This isn't as clear as the Thompkins situation to be perfectly honest... Only time will tell. He did look good on the field in the last game and Flacco seemed to like him. He's definitely worth the flier in dynasty but he has almost zero value in redraft right now unless you're grasping at straws in like a 16 team 20 man roster redraft.

 

Shutout

Footballguy
I think its Stokley. I know, boring but I think thats the real move the chain guy here. Smith is big play or no play and everyone else is a headache. Outside of Rice, I don't see a guy I really want on my fantasy team for every week use.

 

Dinsy Ejotuz

Footballguy
Jacoby is a #4

Stokely is a #3

Smith is a #2

There's a wide open opportunity if anyone is good enough to seize it.

 

Ghost Rider

Footballguy
You spelled his name wrong its Marlon. That aside, I'm not sure how impactful he'll be. I snagged him for the minimum auction bid off waivers in my one dynasty league. This isn't as clear as the Thompkins situation to be perfectly honest... Only time will tell. He did look good on the field in the last game and Flacco seemed to like him. He's definitely worth the flier in dynasty but he has almost zero value in redraft right now unless you're grasping at straws in like a 16 team 20 man roster redraft.
Fixed the spelling (d'oh!), but like I said earlier, someone has to catch those balls in Baltimore, right? How do you see the distribution going? Flacco threw for 3,800+ last year, and even if you see him dropping off to 3,500+ this year with the loss of Pitta and Boldin, that is a lot of yards, and IF Brown is the number 2 WR, he could be a solid occasional flex play in fantasy ball this year. I am not suggesting he is gonna bust out and break 1,000 yards and score 10 times, but 50+ catches and 700+ yards as the Baltimore number 2 WR is more than doable, no? Again, if he is the number 2.

 

timschochet

Footballguy
This guy could be a steal, sure.

But I don't get why so many are basing their estimation of Torrey Smith on last year. It's a completely different situation. Yet so many people have in their minds that Smith is not suited to be a WR #1, that he's boom or bust, that he's just not going to catch that many balls week in and week out because he hasn't done it before.

I think a lot of people are going to be very surprised at how productive Torrey Smith is this year. There's a reason the team was willing to let Boldin go. Smith could put up top 5 numbers- wait and see.

 

stbugs

Footballguy
I think its Stokley. I know, boring but I think thats the real move the chain guy here. Smith is big play or no play and everyone else is a headache. Outside of Rice, I don't see a guy I really want on my fantasy team for every week use.
Stokley is just OK. I like Brown and took him at 19.12, so not exactly jumping out on a limb. He really did look good last week, better than everyone else. I didn't even realize he was a rookie until after the game.

There is a lot of Thompkins hype, but unlike Thompkins, there really isn't much standing in the way of Marlon. Not saying he will put up WR1 stats at all, but there is no Pitta/Boldin this year and Torrey Smith doesn't exactly make me quake in my boots. Thompkins may in fact be better, but he is getting drafted as a WR3/4. Brown was my 7th WR.

 

Khy

Footballguy
I think its Stokley. I know, boring but I think thats the real move the chain guy here. Smith is big play or no play and everyone else is a headache. Outside of Rice, I don't see a guy I really want on my fantasy team for every week use.
Stokley is just OK. I like Brown and took him at 19.12, so not exactly jumping out on a limb. He really did look good last week, better than everyone else. I didn't even realize he was a rookie until after the game.

There is a lot of Thompkins hype, but unlike Thompkins, there really isn't much standing in the way of Marlon. Not saying he will put up WR1 stats at all, but there is no Pitta/Boldin this year and Torrey Smith doesn't exactly make me quake in my boots. Thompkins may in fact be better, but he is getting drafted as a WR3/4. Brown was my 7th WR.
Wait... who is standing in Thompkins way? Being completely honest... he's the clear cut #2 in NE right now. Amendola is a good bet to play less than a full season and Gronk will miss at least the first couple of games. Between the two of them we're probably talking like... 4-8 games during this season where Thompkins will be the #2 target on the field. I'm honestly thinking he out produces what Lloyd did last season.

I feel like Moore has more (no pun intended) standing in his way right now to be honest. Because unlike Thompkins he doesn't have the coaching staff ranting and raving and putting him at #2 on the depth chart... YET. He has to still beat out Stokley and Jones; which isn't a hard task. But still, we have to temper expectations whether or not Harbaugh and crew are willing to give the kid a shot as the #2. They may prefer the trusty veteran over the uncertain rook. We'll need to wait and see, he's not a bad buy and hold right now (especially in dynasty) but don't let this hype train get to out of control. He had 3 good catches in one preseason game.

 

opensourcebeer

Footballguy
Brown has flashed enough to make his upside unknown. He's a good flier in dynasty leagues.

The book has been written on Jones and Stokley and I don't think they deserve a spot on the average dynasty roster.

 

Papa John's

Footballguy
If you haven't seen it, here is a great sleeper article by Matt Waldman (http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=waldmangutchecksurveillance). If you read it, he has already picked out a bunch of guys that have all begun to show "flashes" for dynasty and as deep redraft sleepers (Sudgeld, Thompkins, Ware, etc).

Specifically, Matt states "Brown was on many lists as a top-10 prep wide receiver when the University of Georgia lured him away from the state of Tennessee. Tall (6-4), solidly built (215), and fluid, Brown never produced to his vast potential at Georgia but often flashed the skills fans expected. He catches the ball with his hands, adjusts fluidly to the football, and he can break tackles and run away from defenders."

Those seem like pretty nice measurables to match up with the Baltimore situation.

I find Matt to be a great judge of talent and a guy who does his homework. I think you could do a lot worse than Brown as a sleeper this year; and yes, he could hit rather nicely in dynasty formats or very deep redraft leagues.

 

stbugs

Footballguy
I think its Stokley. I know, boring but I think thats the real move the chain guy here. Smith is big play or no play and everyone else is a headache. Outside of Rice, I don't see a guy I really want on my fantasy team for every week use.
Stokley is just OK. I like Brown and took him at 19.12, so not exactly jumping out on a limb. He really did look good last week, better than everyone else. I didn't even realize he was a rookie until after the game.

There is a lot of Thompkins hype, but unlike Thompkins, there really isn't much standing in the way of Marlon. Not saying he will put up WR1 stats at all, but there is no Pitta/Boldin this year and Torrey Smith doesn't exactly make me quake in my boots. Thompkins may in fact be better, but he is getting drafted as a WR3/4. Brown was my 7th WR.
Wait... who is standing in Thompkins way? Being completely honest... he's the clear cut #2 in NE right now. Amendola is a good bet to play less than a full season and Gronk will miss at least the first couple of games. Between the two of them we're probably talking like... 4-8 games during this season where Thompkins will be the #2 target on the field. I'm honestly thinking he out produces what Lloyd did last season.

I feel like Moore has more (no pun intended) standing in his way right now to be honest. Because unlike Thompkins he doesn't have the coaching staff ranting and raving and putting him at #2 on the depth chart... YET. He has to still beat out Stokley and Jones; which isn't a hard task. But still, we have to temper expectations whether or not Harbaugh and crew are willing to give the kid a shot as the #2. They may prefer the trusty veteran over the uncertain rook. We'll need to wait and see, he's not a bad buy and hold right now (especially in dynasty) but don't let this hype train get to out of control. He had 3 good catches in one preseason game.
We will just disagree then. Amendola practiced yesterday. I know people like to label him as going to miss some games, but before the last two years, he played 14 and 16 games for the Rams, so maybe they were fluke injuries. All I know is that he is healthy now and is the WR1. In the second preseason game Amendola looked great and absolutely was Brady's favorite. Thompkins was 1-3 in the same game that Amendola had 6-71-1TD. When Gronk is healthy, he will outproduce Thompkins, period. So, other than a few games which we know Gronk will miss, Thompkins will be behind Amendola and Gronk. What about Vereen and Sudfeld? Before last week when Vereen was benched, Amendola didn't play and Gronk didn't play, all four of the guys I mentioned were clear favorites over Thompkins. To me, that is a lot more than Brown has in front of him.

That said, I am not saying that Brown will out do Thompkins, because the Ravens passing game is not the Patriots. I am just saying that in 2012, Torrey Smith had 49 receptions, Jacoby Jones had 30 receptions and Ed Dickson had 21 receptions. I don't see anything there that looks like much in front of Brown, including Stokely. I don't know if Brown will do much, but his value as a potential guy is fantastic. I had read the articles about how unlike Thompkins, he was a highly touted prospect (have to be to go to Georgia), so like countless others, maybe he wasn't used well in college.

Anyway, they both could end up being solid players or crap, but I think I would rather pick Brown with my 19th rounder than Thompkins with my 8th. I look at Smith, Stokely, Jones and Dickson and think, hey there is a chance that Brown, if he plays like he did every week, could in fact break out and be the #1 WR or TE on the Ravens FF-wise. I don't think there is any chance, barring injury that Thompkins will do the same.

 

Ghost Rider

Footballguy
Well said, stbugs. It is all about value. You can get Brown right now for almost nothing ($1 in an action or the last round of a redraft). If he does nothing, he cost you nothing. And again, considering that he could very well get a lot of playing time in an offense that lost two of its top four producers from last year, it seems more than obvious to at least take a shot with him.

 

Dinsy Ejotuz

Footballguy
Just missed this guy in my last WW run, but managed to roster him in eight leagues. Here's why I think he's a stellar sleeper...

--There's a great opportunity in Baltimore. Torrey Smith, Stokely and J Jones make a nice 2-3-4, but IMO asking Smith to act as a one and Jones to serve as a two is miscasting them. If that's an accurate read on things then there's a target heavy spot in the Ravens first-team offense available.

--Additionally, Brown was a bigtime recruit out of high school. Which means not much today except that at one time he was considered an elite prospect.

--As a freshman and sophomore Brown was behind AJ Green. Hard to ding him for low production there.

--He was having a nice year last year -- on pace for 50 catches or so -- when he did his ACL.

--And now despite being an UDFA he's been good enough to get a look with the first team during the all-important Week 3 dress rehearsal. And not only did he get a run out, Flacco targeted him often -- with a resulting stat line of 4-59-1.

That's all background and its only real purpose is to provide a plausible explanation to overcome two things -- Brown's UDFA status and his lack of catches in college. Those are both deal killers in almost every case for a highly touted H.S. prospect who played in a major conference, but having a reasonable story for why someone slipped through the NFL's draft cracks is a start. This isn't the most black and white instance (i.e. Priest Holmes missing a year and then sitting behind Ricky Williams), but it's also not outlandish to consider the possibility that 42 catches in his last two years at Georgia isn't representative of Moore's talent level.

So putting aside the obvious dings for a minute... which NFL prospects had similar profiles on entering the NFL -- without regard for number of collegiate catches or draft position? Relaxing those criteria, who are Brown's best comparables?

It's a small group, but an interesting one for a couple reasons.

Looking at WRs over 6'3" with very low BMIs who ran in the high 4.4s or low 4.5s (Brown's estimate is 4.52) and have a positive receiving measure there are only five players (sorted by draft position):

A.J. Green
James Hardy
Sidney Rice
Marlon Brown
Danario Alexander

--AJ Green is AJ Green.

--Hardy was a 2nd round pick by the Ravens and was a full inch taller than the other players on this list (no idea if that matters or not). He also had chronic knee and hamstring problems and was out of the league pretty quickly.

--Sidney Rice is another player that needs no intro or background, but is likewise a player who's had chronic injury issues.

--Which leave Danario Alexander, another UDFA who flashed exceptional ability when he was on the field, but who has had five ACL injuries.

So IMO there are two takeaways here. First, if Brown's low catch total at Georgia is not indicative of his true talent level and was instead based on poor situation, slow development, injury and etc there's a lot of reason to be optimistic about him as a pro. Three of his four comparables have been very good WRs when healthy.

Second, "when healthy" is something to watch given Brown's ACL injury last year. Three of his four best comparables have suffered career-limiting, chronic problems with their knees. I don't know much about history physiology, but it doesn't take much imagination to wonder if maybe the human knee just isn't meant to be stressed to NFL levels in long, lean, fast men.

But that's pure speculation. What matters right now is that Brown might be a talented NFL WR and he may have a big opportunity in front of him on a team that seems to have noticed him. He's an excellent risk/reward play that will cost you nothing more than a roster spot.

 
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EBF

Footballguy
As far as his college production goes, it's worth pointing out that Georgia WRs never put up stats in college. I'm not sure what's going on down there, but they're a lot like LSU in their skill at wasting talented players. Go back and look at all of the guys they've put in the league in the last decade. Reggie Brown, Fred Gibson, Mohamed Massaquoi, AJ Green, Tavarres King. That's five guys who were picked relatively high in the NFL draft and not one of them had a 1000+ yard season in college. That makes Brown's lackluster career a bit more forgivable. I would say he's firmly in longshot territory despite that, but well worth a shot in deep leagues if he's still on waivers for some reason.

 

Dinsy Ejotuz

Footballguy
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RushHour

Footballguy
You'd have to be in a super deep league (16+ teams with decent benches) to even consider rostering this guy.
He's rostered in every league I've seen and went for pretty sizeable bids in several of them.
I think we've got us a redrafter here.
In dynasty, sure yeah....take a shot. Can't hurt - just about every player with a pulse is rostered in many dynasty leagues. Maybe I should assume when posting that most people on here are primarily in dynasty leagues, but it's hard to know. Seems like people are more taking a flier on him with some hope that he might be the #2 WR in Baltimore this season, which seems redraft relevant as well. He was picked up recently in my 16 team IDP keeper league, but I imagine he'll get thrown back in the pool fairly shortly.

 

chickensoup

Footballguy
Round 23 of 25 in my dynasty startup. Easy enough to throw a dart on a guy I can toss back in the pool at any time. Pretty much anyone who has shown anything of merit and is young is dynasty rosterable.

 

finito

Footballguy
I drafted him in the 23rd round. Just a dart but who knows... be interesting to see how it turns out with him, they seem like they're giving him a shot.

 

Bob Henry

Footballguy
I really like what I've seen of Brown. WDCRob nailed all of the points I came to make on him, kudos for that post. He was Mr. Football in the state of Tennessee as a senior in HS. 5* recruit nationally. ACL injury last year at Georgia. Played behind AJ Green as well. That's all well and good, but also in the past.

So what about now? Well, I thought he looked great in the dress rehearsal. Playing in with the starters, he caught all of his targets, had great separation, ran what appeared to be clean routes (and not just a go or slant route either, but deep comebacks and outs). He caught the ball cleanly and I, for one, think the opportunity is wide open for him to take if he earns it.

  • No confidence in Jacoby Jones to develop into a starter-level, consistent performer to hold down starting job
  • I don't think the coaching staff believes Jones will either (obviously my own take here)
  • Stokley isn't in direct competition with Brown. He'll be the slot receiver or on the bench barring lots of injuries
  • Tandon Doss is also a better fit on the inside
I think it comes down to Deonte Thompson, Aaron Mellette and Brown. Mellette has flashed at times, but his inconistency has drawn the ire of the coaches, too, at times. Thompson has a leg up in terms of being in the system and if he stays healthy is the biggest threat or competition for Brown.

I really like his chances. I suspect he'll rotate into the starting slot with Jones and Thompson. Their play will dictate who separates from who. I believe we know what Jones is and it's not anything more than we've seen (explosive, high potential, but inconsistent and not a starter).

I wouldn't be surprised to see a trio of Torrey Smith, Brown and Stokley/Thompson. I'm taking Brown whenever I can as an "end game" pick with lots of upside.

 

The_Man

Footballguy
I think Brown is a great value pick. Here's my homer take on how the Baltimore WR battle shakes out:

Torrey Smith is the #1. Stokley is the #3, will be in as slot guy in 3 WR sets. But I think there's a real chance for there to be 2 #2 guys.

Like maybe Jacoby will be the #2 in 3-WR sets, where they use his downfield threat to open things up in the middle for Stokley. But I don't think the Ravens love him in a 2-WR set - his skills are too limited. Not a great blocker, not a great route runner, so putting him on the field in those packages limits your options. Also, they love him as a return guy and don't want to exhaust him by playing too many WR snaps.

That's where Doss or Brown comes in - a guy who can block, and also run routes in traffic that Jacoby can't. Doss had every opportunity to be this guy and he's just about blown it. To be honest, I think there's a chance he could get cut, if Brown and Mellette continue to come on. Last Thursday, Doss didn't adjust to run the hot route and it led to a Pick-6 for Carolina.

So the upside is that he can be a guy this year that ends up as the Ravens part-time #2 guy, and could be full-time in that role as soon as next year. Downside is you spent $1 or a 23rd pick on someone that didn't pan out.

 

Ghost Rider

Footballguy
Very nice, but playing that much in the 4th preseason game usually means you aren't gonna be a starter, so if Brown is gonna make an impact this year, it might not be right away. We shall see.

 

Kenny Powers

Footballguy
Im probably crazy but Im considering dropping Greg Little for Marlon Brown. Pretty sure Little is never going to be more than a WR4/5, and I have Cameron and am hoping to trade for Gordon before he comes back. I actually picked Little before Andre Roberts and Kenny Stills in my draft, but I feel like those guys have much more upside this year, same with Brown. So Little is basically my last bench spot and first drop, I might as well take a flier on Brown and see what he does the first couple weeks.

ETA: Actually I'll probably take that flier on Quinton Patton before Brown

 
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lod01

Footballguy
Ghost Rider said:
Very nice, but playing that much in the 4th preseason game usually means you aren't gonna be a starter, so if Brown is gonna make an impact this year, it might not be right away. We shall see.
Definately not starting but there is nothing in his way to start opposite Smith. Could start by end of season.

 

hotboyz

Footballguy
Long as his knee holds remember only thing kept him from being drafted was his ACL tear last yr him and Aaron melette shows promise

 

Dinsy Ejotuz

Footballguy
Ravens declared WR Aaron Mellette, WR Deonte Thompson, DE Arthur Jones, DT Brandon Williams, LB John Simon, G/T Jah Reid and G/C Ryan Jensen inactive for Week 1 against the Broncos.
Only four WRs active and Brown is one of them.

 

Kenny Powers

Footballguy
Ravens declared WR Aaron Mellette, WR Deonte Thompson, DE Arthur Jones, DT Brandon Williams, LB John Simon, G/T Jah Reid and G/C Ryan Jensen inactive for Week 1 against the Broncos.
Only four WRs active and Brown is one of them.
Crossing my fingers he doesnt blow up tonight in the game everyone is watching, but looks good enough.

 

valhallan

Footballguy
Starting with.. mild confidence. I think Miller and Dumervil being gone should leave the Broncos vulnerable, plus the Ravens will likely have to pass.

(and lest anyone asks, I took over a really bad dynasty team)

 

We Tigers

Footballguy
Jacoby Jones out with a knee sprain. Could be nothing, could be a good reason to grab Brown. Two deep targets so far, either overthrows or Brown not being able to get out there quickly enough.

 

Sabertooth

Footballguy
When I heard Waldman state that the rest of the receivers outside of Smith were bums compared to Brown I sat up and took notice. I was able to acquire him in a league today. I think he's got a real shot, there is a ton of opportunity there.

eta: Torrey Smith, not Torry Holt....oof.

 
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EBF

Footballguy
I have him in a bunch of dynasty leagues. Think he'll probably be the 2nd best WR on the Ravens this year. Not sure if that's saying much though. They have a weak WR corps and should've done more to address the position in the offseason.

 

teamramrod

Footballguy
Anyone else on board with this guy as a super sleeper this year? Someone has to catch balls in Baltimore besides Torrey Smith, Jacoby Jones is not a real number 2 WR, and Brown did well last week playing with Flacco, who seems to like him, so I think he is one of those sneaky late picks that will work out well for fantasy players who took a shot. I've got him on two teams so far ($1 in both auctions).
Ummm, can you work for the greater good and tell me this weekends powerball numbers?

peace

 

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