ThePittbully
Footballguy
Brees favors him with joe horn in the game, with joe horn out there's no chance his numbers will slowAnd showing no signs of slowing down.
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Marques Colston is on pace to have a Randy Moss-like rookie season! (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Phlash
- Start date
djcolts
Footballguy
Chris Landry, Fox Sport Radio's expert (who actually watches film) - says that Reggie Bush really opens up the offense for Colston. I respect his opinion - he doesn't hype players to hype players.
Other 1st round rookies that he thinks are doing really well (at least those that aren't hurt):
Tamba Hali (sorry about the spelling, Chief fans) ("Should have been drafted much higher")
Maroney ("Oustanding")
Nick Mangold ("Among the best 1st round picks in the draft")
Addai ("Doing very well")
Other 1st round rookies that he thinks are doing really well (at least those that aren't hurt):
Tamba Hali (sorry about the spelling, Chief fans) ("Should have been drafted much higher")
Maroney ("Oustanding")
Nick Mangold ("Among the best 1st round picks in the draft")
Addai ("Doing very well")
Knew they'd figure out a way to give Colston's Rookie of the Year trophy to Bush.
Not always, thats why I used the word "likely".
Are you saying that after 7 weeks Tampa didn't know about the guy and all of a sudden after the 8th week teams are going to wake up and say "Hey, this guy ranked # 4 in receiving yards, we should start covering him"?
Yeah, it really showed too. Being able to focus on Colston he was held to a paltry 123 yards and a TD
I have not analyzed it very closely, but at first glance it seems roughly similar to me.
When it comes to players not in a Dolphin uniform, I only care about things that help me win fantasy games.
Your "projection" was based on the fact that you feel he just can't possibly keep up this pace. Projections with no logical, statistical or factual basis are just BEGGING to be called out.
The length of your posts suggests otherwise
Relax man, it isn't a pissing match, it is a discussion.
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If it is mild I could see it.In college I had a mild concussion in a Rugby game, I finished it out. And I was not known as a "tough" guy.The next year I got hit hard, it was a much more serious concussion. I didn't play for a couple weeks. I couldn't even see clearly the rest of that day.Colston suffered a concussion during the Bucs game but came back in and playedThe kid is tough, but why would his coach let him go back in after a concussion?!?!?!
guderian
Footballguy
1. TB's game plan was to stop the running game and they shut down Deuce and Bush. I know that's one of those pesky little "watching the game" details that you don't care about, but yes--that was TB's game plan. So while TB clearly "knew about the guy" their game plan was targeted at the running game. 2. As far as pointing out Joe Horn's absence that shows a distinct difference between your opinion and my opinion. I consider information that is both favorable and un-favorable to Colston whereas you discount any information that doesn't conform to your pre-conceived, statistically extrapolated "Colston is the second coming" opinion. I consider all of the positive and negative information and not just changes in the numreator and the denominator of Colston's YTD stats. If anything, I should be considered a biased Colston owner/Saints fan. 3. "I have not analyzed it very closely..."--doesn't surprise me to hear you say that. 4. "Your "projection" was based on the fact that you feel he just can't possibly keep up this pace. Projections with no logical, statistical or factual basis are just BEGGING to be called out." First of all, it wasn't a projection--it was a first hand appraisal of Colston's performance from someone who has seen almost every one of his catches. Second, I've offered far more logic, stats and facts than your "status quo always continues/almost never watch him play" argument. Third, you were obviously dying to find a Colston hater in this thread and I was the closest thing to it to call out. Too bad I didn't play along. 5. "Thats why I used the word "likely"". Sorry, that isn't going to fly since you quickly held me to a completely literal interpretation of my assesment of Colston. Heretofore I will only recognize you as "full season stats=2 X first 8 game stats" guy. 5. "Relax man, it isn't a pissing match, it is a discussion." Hardly. Apparently Colston has become one of those incessantly annoying Shark Pool topics that is devoid of balanced, thought provoking discussion and quickly devolves into inane arguments between biased "Lovers" and "Haters"--most of whom have rarely seen him play. Congrats, Colston had a TD this week. I guess the part of my original post that said "2. He has been a target in key plays--both in the red zone and on 3rd/4th down situations. This shows that the coaching staff and Brees has confidence in him. 3. He is frequently the WR in 1 WR sets in red zone situations." has now been proven completely wrong.Not always, thats why I used the word "likely".Are you saying that after 7 weeks Tampa didn't know about the guy and all of a sudden after the 8th week teams are going to wake up and say "Hey, this guy ranked # 4 in receiving yards, we should start covering him"?Yeah, it really showed too. Being able to focus on Colston he was held to a paltry 123 yards and a TDI have not analyzed it very closely, but at first glance it seems roughly similar to me.When it comes to players not in a Dolphin uniform, I only care about things that help me win fantasy games.Your "projection" was based on the fact that you feel he just can't possibly keep up this pace. Projections with no logical, statistical or factual basis are just BEGGING to be called out.The length of your posts suggests otherwiseRelax man, it isn't a pissing match, it is a discussion.
Seriously, can't we all just agree at this point that Colston is a great receiver? Those who have spent the last nine weeks trying to explain away his production ("it's garbage time" or "it's the benefit of playing with Horn/Bush/etc.") have been proven wrong. That's the bottom line. Period.
guderian
Footballguy
Apparently not since a handful of people in this thread read my original post as...
How dare I point out that there is ANY negative associated with Colston. I know I said that he has great hands, uses his body well in traffic, is a target in key plays, that the coaches and Brees have confidence in him and that he has the talent and opportunity to succeed--but none of that means anything if I cast any aspect of his role within the Saints offense in less than a gleaming light.
You gave a projection. I pointed out that there was no reason to see a drop off in production. You still have not shown a reason it is likely to happen other than. "I have been to the games!" and "With Horn, Duce and Bush he can't continue to score", neither of which are logical, valid or demonstrate in any way that we should expect a drop-of in productivity.
I am not a Colston lover or hater. I am happy he is on my team and I don't see a valid reason to see his numbers drop. I do hate people who post projections based on gut feelings and ignoring reality.
Straw man, I never said that statement was incorrect. I would say the statement about seeing a TD every other week or so is flawed as he has 7 in 8 games, and 4 in his last 5.
guderian
Footballguy
So basically you have a pet peeve and have declared jihad on non-statistically extrapolated projections. Got it. Reality to you is taking his current production rate and multiplying that by his remaining games. Period. You've offered no other basis despite the fact that NFL players almost NEVER have second halves of the season that are identical to their first half. "Gut feeling" is "I haven't seen him play, I don't have a clue about the Saints offense and I have a 'feeling' that he is going to do..." "I've seen the stats, I've seen him play, I read almost everything that is printed about the Saints and I conclude..." isn't a "gut feeling". Nothing that I posted was a "projection", but it was a glowing assessment of Colston and a tempered expectation of his role in an offense that seeks to spread the ball around.
Prove it. For every player you find with a large variance in production I bet I can find one who didn't.
I don't carbon copy first half stats and assume the second half will be exactly the same. I do think if there is reason for variance then adjustment is a good idea. For example: Fred Taylor had a decent first half, but Drew is getting more and more involved in the offense, so I expect Fred's numbers to decline in the second half.You see, that is using factual information to justify a change in the projections.
That is called a "projection".
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guderian
Footballguy
This has become ploddingly pedestrian. Look, it looked to me like people were struggling with their assessment of Colston because they hadn't seen him play. I own him, I'm a Saints season ticket holder and have seen him throughout preseason and watched almost every play this season. I offered my first hand assessment. Apparently there is a group of people including you that have barely seen him play that have a different assessment.
However, I do regret being drawn into your sophomoric fishing expedition that has brought nothing to the thread or has shed any light on Colston's outlook.
Neil Beaufort Zod
Footballguy
Nobody can stop you from patting yourself on the back. I just hope you take it easy on yourself when reviewing all the receivers you took AHEAD of Colston. Don't beat yourself up too badly. Not really the best decisions, eh?You did get lucky when you picked him up and he panned out like this. So did I. I made the move to pick him up...but I also drafted Antonio Bryant, Mark Clayton and others ahead of him. I'll take the points, but I won't pretend it was anything but a stab at some potential.
Fair enough, and I am also lamenting the choices of Kennison and McCardell, who I drafted. Like I said in a later post, I spend enough time kicking myself, when I do make a good choice I allow myself to be pleased. It's a game right? It is supposed to be fun.Here, this one is on me:
Maelstrom
Footballguy
First, the pissing match is just silly. And not to add to it, but guderian seems to have a reasonable take on the situation, and I would take his reasonable explanations and "projections" over a stat guys anyday.I drafted him when I needed a 10 round rookie draft pick in a 53 player per team 12 team dynasty league that rosters 63 in the offseason (so my 61st draft pick), drafts immediately following the NFL draft in May, and posted the following:
I needed a TE, but I'm happy with a WR. In fact, my lack of faith that he will continue on has had me pull him from the roster at least twice for Wayne or KJohnson earlier in the season, which may have cost me a game or two. Needless to say, he will probably have a roster spot for some time going forward.But regardless of the pissing, I appreciate some of the discussion in this thread - I did not know a lot about him but what I researched around draft time and that he was doing quite well.
Neil Beaufort Zod
Footballguy
Now you're talkin'. Here's to things working out, for whatever reason.Fair enough, and I am also lamenting the choices of Kennison and McCardell, who I drafted. Like I said in a later post, I spend enough time kicking myself, when I do make a good choice I allow myself to be pleased. It's a game right? It is supposed to be fun.Here, this one is on me:
You are so right, because I have not watched every snap of every game your evaluation is much more meaningful. I mean the scrub only got 170 yards today.
Flyin Pigs
Footballguy
Thank God. I was afraid that this thread would just die. Thank you for bringing it back to life. Hopefully we can suck another week out of it.Now where'd I leave that sarcasm sign????You are so right, because I have not watched every snap of every game your evaluation is much more meaningful. I mean the scrub only got 170 yards today.
You realize you just helped it live a little longer, don't you?Ironic.Thank God. I was afraid that this thread would just die. Thank you for bringing it back to life. Hopefully we can suck another week out of it.Now where'd I leave that sarcasm sign????You are so right, because I have not watched every snap of every game your evaluation is much more meaningful. I mean the scrub only got 170 yards today.
djcolts
Footballguy
My opinion of Chris Landry went down today. I watched enough of Colston today to see that he's an unbelievable player and Landry's wrong about Bush making Colston. Too bad, I was hoping that there actually would be a TV or radio analyst that wouldn't fall for hype. The search for that guy continues. :
kupcho1
Footballguy
guderian
Footballguy
Important lesson for you here. When the homer argues down a player's outlook maybe you should listen to them instead of extrapolating the current stat line and mocking their first hand observations.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Will Colston have a 2nd year slump?
Mister CIA
Footballguy
What a crappy post.
Buttmonkey
Footballguy
70-1038 and 8 TDs. Not quite Moss numbers. Good try and better luck next year.
Pipes
Footballguy
Mister CIA said:
I don't remember seeing the down outlook including an injury. He basically only played in 12 games. He missed 3 games due to injury (got hurt in the 1st quarter of the Cincy game before catching a ball) and didn't play much at all in Week 17 since the Saints clinched a bye (who predicted that?????).70 receptions for 1038 yards and 8 TDs in 12 games of play is pretty phenomenal, especially for a rookie. I would say things look good for him next year as it seems pretty apparent, including in the playoffs, that he is Brees' #1 downfield target.
guderian
Footballguy
Colston played in 16 games including the playoffs. Even if you omit the game where he was injured early on he played in 15 and put forth 80/1146/9. My projection from post #57 in this thread was 1150+ and 10-11 TDs. Colston also benefitted from Horn's injury. That aside, the big issue here was that I argued that Colson would see fewer TDs because the Saints offense liked to spread the ball around. The guy whose post I quoted argued that he saw no reason for a change in Colston's pace of 6 TDs in his first 7 games. In fact, Colston had 2 TDs in his last 7 games. The guy that I was arguing with merely extrapolated his stats and didn't factor in personal observation and, in fact, mocked any first hand observations from people that actually watched Colston play on a regular basis and felt that his stats at the mid-point of the season weren't a good indicator of how he would finish the rest of the season. I just noticed that the guy stopped bumping the thread after the first week or two and thought I'd remind him that one can improve their projections by actually watching the players they are projecting.
