Marshawn Lynch ranking (1 Viewer)

[gianmarco]

The Bills O line was excellent last year in pass protection. They were OK in run blocking, but should have been better considering the size of their linemen. The only weak spot on the line is Center. They made massive changes to the line last year, and with a year together, they should be even better this year. They don;t have much depth on the line, but I'm not sure there are too many teams in the league that do have depth. I agree they were horrible 3 to 5 years ago, but this is almost an entirely different group of guys, with new coaches as well. The biggest knock on Lynch is that the Bills just don't score a lot of offensive TDs. They love to settle for FGs, and get very conservative once they get into FG range. Maybe that will change this year with a new offensive coordinator a Edwards in his second year.

well said.here are some valid reasons to expect improvement from Lynch:

normal improvement that players make from their rookie year to year 2.
improved play from the offensive line who return the entire starting lineup.
improved passing game thanks to the addition of James Hardy and improvement from Edwards in year 2.
much easier schedule. Bills go from one of the toughest in 2007 to one of the easiest in 2008.
Trent Edwards is projected to start the entire year and he does a much better job of checking down to the RBs than Losman, which should lead to significant increase in receptions for Lynch.
Bills defense was very young and decimated by injuries last year. They've made significant improvements in the offseason and should be much better, which will lead to better field position and more time of possession for the offense.

Two good postings and good reasons. My only question is to the bolded statement above. I think it's been studied before but not sure where it might be, but don't 2 yr RB's usually see a decrease in performance in their 2nd year or am I making that up?

 

[AnonymousBob]

How much of an impact does everyone really expect James Hardy to have? It's not often a rookie wr does much...

Though some other excellent points are being made.

 

[kethnaab]

Look..you ask for my opinion and I gave it to you. Here you go.

http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/conten...NFL&id=4186

Apr. 8, 2008 - 11:15 a.m. ET

The Bills' offense in 2008 "will not be a pass-happy attack," according to beat reporter Allen Wilson.

There has been some talk of Buffalo "opening up the offense" under new OC Turk Schonert, but Wilson says it'll always be conservative for **** Jauron. The Bills will "make sure" Marshawn Lynch gets his 20-25 carries per game.

Source: sportingnews.com

And here you go......

Jan. 16, 2008 - 2:45 p.m. ET

New Bills offensive coordinator Turk Schonert anticipates using Marshawn Lynch as an every-down back in 2008.

Lynch lost passing-down duties to Anthony Thomas, and later Fred Jackson as a rookie. "He's had a year, he understands the protections now," said Schonert. "He'll be an integral part of our third-down package." Lynch should get more catches and more in-space opportunities in the revised offense.

Source: buffalobills.com

Let me know if you need anything else.

he already had the 20-25 carries/game, but the increase in pass receptions is something to be interested in. Nice links.

here are some valid reasons to expect improvement from Lynch:

normal improvement that players make from their rookie year to year 2.
improved play from the offensive line who return the entire starting lineup.
improved passing game thanks to the addition of James Hardy and improvement from Edwards in year 2.
much easier schedule. Bills go from one of the toughest in 2007 to one of the easiest in 2008.
Trent Edwards is projected to start the entire year and he does a much better job of checking down to the RBs than Losman, which should lead to significant increase in receptions for Lynch.
Bills defense was very young and decimated by injuries last year. They've made significant improvements in the offseason and should be much better, which will lead to better field position and more time of possession for the offense.

very good, and very valid points.

To me, Lynch is going to be like Rudi Johnson or McGahee. Never lower than 10-15, never in the top 5. Great late 1st/early 2nd picks, but not a guy I would take at the 7-9 spot which means I will never own him as I've yet to see him fall farther than that.

and that's all many of us are trying to say. Solid RB2, but not really 1st round calibre

 

[hitmenssharpshooters]

The Bills O line was excellent last year in pass protection. They were OK in run blocking, but should have been better considering the size of their linemen. The only weak spot on the line is Center. They made massive changes to the line last year, and with a year together, they should be even better this year. They don;t have much depth on the line, but I'm not sure there are too many teams in the league that do have depth. I agree they were horrible 3 to 5 years ago, but this is almost an entirely different group of guys, with new coaches as well. The biggest knock on Lynch is that the Bills just don't score a lot of offensive TDs. They love to settle for FGs, and get very conservative once they get into FG range. Maybe that will change this year with a new offensive coordinator a Edwards in his second year.

well said.here are some valid reasons to expect improvement from Lynch:

normal improvement that players make from their rookie year to year 2.
improved play from the offensive line who return the entire starting lineup.
improved passing game thanks to the addition of James Hardy and improvement from Edwards in year 2.
much easier schedule. Bills go from one of the toughest in 2007 to one of the easiest in 2008.
Trent Edwards is projected to start the entire year and he does a much better job of checking down to the RBs than Losman, which should lead to significant increase in receptions for Lynch.
Bills defense was very young and decimated by injuries last year. They've made significant improvements in the offseason and should be much better, which will lead to better field position and more time of possession for the offense.

Bolded points where the ones I was trying to make. I do agree with the last one as well.

Another thing is that he only played 13 games last year so if he is able to play 16 or at least 15 he should improve.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

and that's all many of us are trying to say. Solid RB2, but not really 1st round calibre

here are the current top-17 RBs according to FBG non-PPR rankings.how many of these RBs would you rate as "1st round caliber"? 9? If so, I don't think that's really any different than what most people believe. I think there's a clear dropoff after the top 9 and the next group are all pretty similar. But, Lynch seems to be a little safer with just as much upside as any of the RBs ranked below him. Actually, Lynch, Grant, and McGahee seem a little closer to the top-9 than they do to the MJDs and Reggie Bushes in the group.1 RB LaDainian Tomlinson, SD 2 RB Adrian Peterson, MIN 3 RB Steven Jackson, STL 4 RB Brian Westbrook, PHI 5 RB Joseph Addai, IND 6 RB Clinton Portis, WAS 7 RB Frank Gore, SF 8 RB Marion Barber III, DAL 9 RB Larry Johnson, KC 10 RB Marshawn Lynch, BUF 11 RB Willis McGahee, BAL 12 RB Ryan Grant, GB 13 RB Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX 14 RB Reggie Bush, NO 15 RB Jamal Lewis, CLE 16 RB Ronnie Brown, MIA 17 RB Laurence Maroney, NE

 

[gianmarco]

and that's all many of us are trying to say. Solid RB2, but not really 1st round calibre

here are the current top-17 RBs according to FBG non-PPR rankings.how many of these RBs would you rate as "1st round caliber"? 9? If so, I don't think that's really any different than what most people believe. I think there's a clear dropoff after the top 9 and the next group are all pretty similar. But, Lynch seems to be a little safer with just as much upside as any of the RBs ranked below him. Actually, Lynch, Grant, and McGahee seem a little closer to the top-9 than they do to the MJDs and Reggie Bushes in the group.1 RB LaDainian Tomlinson, SD 2 RB Adrian Peterson, MIN 3 RB Steven Jackson, STL 4 RB Brian Westbrook, PHI 5 RB Joseph Addai, IND 6 RB Clinton Portis, WAS 7 RB Frank Gore, SF 8 RB Marion Barber III, DAL 9 RB Larry Johnson, KC 10 RB Marshawn Lynch, BUF 11 RB Willis McGahee, BAL 12 RB Ryan Grant, GB 13 RB Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX 14 RB Reggie Bush, NO 15 RB Jamal Lewis, CLE 16 RB Ronnie Brown, MIA 17 RB Laurence Maroney, NE

Just a matter of preference, but I would take McGahee, Grant, MJD, and Bush ahead of him. I see McGahee as most similar to him, but he's a little more proven, still relatively young, and should benefit from the addition of Cam Cameron to Baltimore. As for the other 3, I think they have higher upside and are more talented. That would rank Lynch about #13-14 as I would probably take him over LJ at this point. I have McGahee, Lynch, LJ, and Turner all around the same area. I wouldn't think twice about taking Grant, MJD, or Bush over him personally, but I know others may not agree.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

I wouldn't think twice about taking Grant, MJD, or Bush over him personally, but I know others may not agree.

I understand why you'd take Grant and even MJD. But, Reggie Bush in a non-PPR league has no business going ahead of Marshawn Lynch, IMO.In FBG scoring, Bush has scored 177 points in 16 games as a rookie and 136 points in 12 games as a sophomore for an overall average of 11.2 points/game.Lynch just put up 178 points in 13 games for an average of 13.7 points/game.If those averages held over an entire 16 game season, Lynch would outscore Bush by 40 points.I also think Lynch clearly has the potential to put up 10+ TDs while Reggie is unlikely to do so.

 

[gianmarco]

I wouldn't think twice about taking Grant, MJD, or Bush over him personally, but I know others may not agree.

I understand why you'd take Grant and even MJD. But, Reggie Bush in a non-PPR league has no business going ahead of Marshawn Lynch, IMO.In FBG scoring, Bush has scored 177 points in 16 games as a rookie and 136 points in 12 games as a sophomore for an overall average of 11.2 points/game.Lynch just put up 178 points in 13 games for an average of 13.7 points/game.If those averages held over an entire 16 game season, Lynch would outscore Bush by 40 points.I also think Lynch clearly has the potential to put up 10+ TDs while Reggie is unlikely to do so.

In a non-ppr league, I agree that they are close and I would definitely consider him over Reggie. As I play in mostly PPR leagues, I didn't consider non-ppr, but it would certainly erase the gap between the 2.

 

[fridayfrenzy]

The Bills O line was excellent last year in pass protection. They were OK in run blocking, but should have been better considering the size of their linemen. The only weak spot on the line is Center. They made massive changes to the line last year, and with a year together, they should be even better this year. They don;t have much depth on the line, but I'm not sure there are too many teams in the league that do have depth. I agree they were horrible 3 to 5 years ago, but this is almost an entirely different group of guys, with new coaches as well. The biggest knock on Lynch is that the Bills just don't score a lot of offensive TDs. They love to settle for FGs, and get very conservative once they get into FG range. Maybe that will change this year with a new offensive coordinator a Edwards in his second year.

well said.here are some valid reasons to expect improvement from Lynch:

normal improvement that players make from their rookie year to year 2.
improved play from the offensive line who return the entire starting lineup.
improved passing game thanks to the addition of James Hardy and improvement from Edwards in year 2.
much easier schedule. Bills go from one of the toughest in 2007 to one of the easiest in 2008.
Trent Edwards is projected to start the entire year and he does a much better job of checking down to the RBs than Losman, which should lead to significant increase in receptions for Lynch.
Bills defense was very young and decimated by injuries last year. They've made significant improvements in the offseason and should be much better, which will lead to better field position and more time of possession for the offense.

Bolded points where the ones I was trying to make. I do agree with the last one as well.

Another thing is that he only played 13 games last year so if he is able to play 16 or at least 15 he should improve.

You said his YPC was going to improve. That stat is an average, it has nothing to do with how many games Lynch will play.I am not saying his YPC can't or won't improve, but throwing out LT's YPC change as it has anything to do with Lynch makes no sense.

 

[kethnaab]

and that's all many of us are trying to say. Solid RB2, but not really 1st round calibre

here are the current top-17 RBs according to FBG non-PPR rankings.how many of these RBs would you rate as "1st round caliber"? 9? If so, I don't think that's really any different than what most people believe. I think there's a clear dropoff after the top 9 and the next group are all pretty similar. But, Lynch seems to be a little safer with just as much upside as any of the RBs ranked below him. Actually, Lynch, Grant, and McGahee seem a little closer to the top-9 than they do to the MJDs and Reggie Bushes in the group.

1 RB LaDainian Tomlinson, SD

2 RB Adrian Peterson, MIN

3 RB Steven Jackson, STL

4 RB Brian Westbrook, PHI

5 RB Joseph Addai, IND

6 RB Clinton Portis, WAS

7 RB Frank Gore, SF

8 RB Marion Barber III, DAL

9 RB Larry Johnson, KC

10 RB Marshawn Lynch, BUF

11 RB Willis McGahee, BAL

12 RB Ryan Grant, GB

13 RB Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX

14 RB Reggie Bush, NO

15 RB Jamal Lewis, CLE

16 RB Ronnie Brown, MIA

17 RB Laurence Maroney, NE

1st rounder RBs are boldfaced, in red. If I was picking 10th and the above RBs were already taken, I wouldn't take Lynch or any of the other RBs. I'd take Randy Moss.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

1st rounder RBs are boldfaced, in red. If I was picking 10th and the above RBs were already taken, I wouldn't take Lynch or any of the other RBs. I'd take Randy Moss.

what if Moss was gone too? 9 RBs plus Moss is 10 players. Still 2 picks left in the 1st round of a 12-team draft.

 

[King of the Jungle]

Any Levin comments?

 

[kethnaab]

1st rounder RBs are boldfaced, in red. If I was picking 10th and the above RBs were already taken, I wouldn't take Lynch or any of the other RBs. I'd take Randy Moss.

what if Moss was gone too? 9 RBs plus Moss is 10 players. Still 2 picks left in the 1st round of a 12-team draft.

I'd take Grant, Turner, Stewie, Mendenhall before Lynch as well.Yes, rolling the dice with stewie and Mendy. In a redraft, I'd take DMac before Lynch also.

 

[Knight who says Ni]

1st rounder RBs are boldfaced, in red. If I was picking 10th and the above RBs were already taken, I wouldn't take Lynch or any of the other RBs. I'd take Randy Moss.

what if Moss was gone too? 9 RBs plus Moss is 10 players. Still 2 picks left in the 1st round of a 12-team draft.

I'd take Grant, Turner, Stewie, Mendenhall before Lynch as well.Yes, rolling the dice with stewie and Mendy. In a redraft, I'd take DMac before Lynch also.

Why would you take two guys who will almost certainly be in a RBBC over a guy who is fairly proven, as well as an every-down back?

 

[Banger]

I wouldn't touch Lynch at #10 overall. Every year there are sophmore RB's that are overvalued and end up going too high and this year it's Lynch.

 

[hitmenssharpshooters]

The Bills O line was excellent last year in pass protection. They were OK in run blocking, but should have been better considering the size of their linemen. The only weak spot on the line is Center. They made massive changes to the line last year, and with a year together, they should be even better this year. They don;t have much depth on the line, but I'm not sure there are too many teams in the league that do have depth. I agree they were horrible 3 to 5 years ago, but this is almost an entirely different group of guys, with new coaches as well. The biggest knock on Lynch is that the Bills just don't score a lot of offensive TDs. They love to settle for FGs, and get very conservative once they get into FG range. Maybe that will change this year with a new offensive coordinator a Edwards in his second year.

well said.here are some valid reasons to expect improvement from Lynch:

normal improvement that players make from their rookie year to year 2.
improved play from the offensive line who return the entire starting lineup.
improved passing game thanks to the addition of James Hardy and improvement from Edwards in year 2.
much easier schedule. Bills go from one of the toughest in 2007 to one of the easiest in 2008.
Trent Edwards is projected to start the entire year and he does a much better job of checking down to the RBs than Losman, which should lead to significant increase in receptions for Lynch.
Bills defense was very young and decimated by injuries last year. They've made significant improvements in the offseason and should be much better, which will lead to better field position and more time of possession for the offense.

Bolded points where the ones I was trying to make. I do agree with the last one as well.

Another thing is that he only played 13 games last year so if he is able to play 16 or at least 15 he should improve.

You said his YPC was going to improve. That stat is an average, it has nothing to do with how many games Lynch will play.I am not saying his YPC can't or won't improve, but throwing out LT's YPC change as it has anything to do with Lynch makes no sense.

Ok. So going from 3.9 to 4.1 is not an improvement?Again, I am not making a comparison to the holy LT. But a rookie RB can improve from year 1 to year 2 right?

 

[AnonymousBob]

Any Levin comments?

Good question. I think we'd all like to see his reasoning for ranking him #24.

 

[kethnaab]

I'd take Grant, Turner, Stewie, Mendenhall before Lynch as well.

Yes, rolling the dice with stewie and Mendy. In a redraft, I'd take DMac before Lynch also.

Why would you take two guys who will almost certainly be in a RBBC over a guy who is fairly proven, as well as an every-down back?

1) Dynasty - I think Mendy and Stewart are more talented and in better situations. 2) Mendy and Stewart will win the starting jobs quickly. MBIII and MJD are in 'RBBC's as well, but they are the goal line guys. Obviously both Mendy and Stewart will get the goal line chores over FWP and DAW and their offenses can move the ball far better than the Buff

3) If you're a D-coord, are you going to stack 8 and challenge Ben or Delhomme to pass? Would you feel more or less comfortable doing that against Trent Edwards?

I wouldn't touch Lynch at #10 overall. Every year there are sophmore RB's that are overvalued and end up going too high and this year it's Lynch.

 

[brock]

grant before lynch in a dynasty?

 

[Bobtender]

Any Levin comments?

Good question. I think we'd all like to see his reasoning for ranking him #24.

I guess Levin is going to wait for the Spotlight arguements to come out.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Any Levin comments?

Good question. I think we'd all like to see his reasoning for ranking him #24.

I guess Levin is going to wait for the Spotlight arguements to come out.

PMs down?

 

[drdgreenlove]

This Anti-Marshawn talk is dumb...

People are down on him after his rookie year...

For comparison purposes...

2001 LT2 339-1236 3.6 ypc 8 fumbles, 5 lost, 10 TD

2007 Lynch 280-1115 4.0 ypc 2 fumbles, 1 lost 7 TD

All I'm saying is nobody can decide who will be a superstar after a rookie NFL season..its all a crapshoot... the Chargers offense was equally bad LT's rookie year and if anything I would think the Bills future looks a little brighter than the Chargers did in 2001

 

[AnonymousBob]

Any Levin comments?

Good question. I think we'd all like to see his reasoning for ranking him #24.

I guess Levin is going to wait for the Spotlight arguements to come out.

PMs down?

Should everybody send Levin a PM asking him to explain Lynch's ranking? Better to keep bumping this thread so he can answer everyone rather than do the logical thing like sending him a PM with a link to this thread.

 

[AnonymousBob]

This Anti-Marshawn talk is dumb...People are down on him after his rookie year...For comparison purposes...2001 LT2 339-1236 3.6 ypc 8 fumbles, 5 lost, 10 TD2007 Lynch 280-1115 4.0 ypc 2 fumbles, 1 lost 7 TDAll I'm saying is nobody can decide who will be a superstar after a rookie NFL season..its all a crapshoot... the Chargers offense was equally bad LT's rookie year and if anything I would think the Bills future looks a little brighter than the Chargers did in 2001

That settles it. Lynch is going to go down as one of the greatest running backs to ever play the game of football. Mark it down.

 

[AllVolUT]

Also, add in the fact that the passing game was in transition. I feel as though Hardy could make a significant difference in that aspect. Lynch will figure to additionally benefit from an increased amount of time on 3rd downs as his pass blocking matures. Factor in the easier schedule aspect as well, and I cannot see how he doesn't surpass his fantasy ranking from 2007.I wasn't really alluding to increased carries, more along the lines of an increased role in the passing game. Even if he nets 300 carries and maintains the same ypc, he's still grabbing 1200 rushing yards. The possible increased role in the passing game will net him around 300yds, IMO. 1500 total yards is definitely obtainable, and more along his floor IMO...but thats just me.

Does anyone disagree with this? It seems like this has been regurgitated throughout the thread...not that I'm trying to call attention to myself but I feel like w/ his 1500 total yd 'floor', he warrants a top 10 selection.ETA: I know this is a rather simplified version, i.e. leaving out new OCs, another year in the system, etc...but a lot of those scenarios and factors would help IMO.

 

[Bri]

I wouldn't touch Lynch at #10 overall. Every year there are sophmore RB's that are overvalued and end up going too high and this year it's Lynch.

Team's confidence in young RB-He averaged 21.5 carries per game, highest in leagueProduction-1100 yards in 13 games.

 

[Bri]

Trent Edwards is projected to start the entire year and he does a much better job of checking down to the RBs than Losman, which should lead to significant increase in receptions for Lynch.

He didn't catch any more when Edwards started last year. He had 1, 2, or 3 catches each game.

 

[The Moz]

You people saying Mendenhall, Turner , Stewart and others are better than Lynch thisn season?????

A. The man runs like a beast! and is a great short yardage guy

B. Is a great reciever they just didn't pass to him last year ( hopefully they realize they need to now )

C. LOOK AT HIS SCHEDULE - with that sched he almost can't help getting top 8 numbers.

The knocks were his offense and his QB. I dunno if it will be better but it should with a year under Edwards belt and the addition of Hardy and the Oline actually did decent last year should gel a little more.

I seriously doubt he falls out of any first round in any draft!