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Marshawn Lynch vs. Adrian Peterson (1 Viewer)

JMJ

JMJ

Footballguy
Lynch and Peterson are both extremely talented rookies. While Peterson is more talented, it seems at least for now that Lynch is in the better situation.

These two players also have a virtually identical ADP sometime around early-to-mid 4rth round (non-keeper leagues of course). Lots of us in our upcoming drafts who are seeking a RB at that point in time are going to have to make a decision between these two promising backs.

Does anyone feel strongly one side vs. the other? Does anyone really dislike either player this year? (again, non-keeper)

Please discuss ......

 
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I don't like either for redraft purposes.

1. I just don't buy into all of the rookie hype.

2. I don't believe either offense allows for too much 'upside' as far as production goes.

3. Both are on teams with a solid veteran incumbent.

Dynasty, on the other hand is a different story.

 
Sabertooth said:
AD is the real deal. I think Lynch is going to by more JJ Arrington than Marshall Faulk.
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Can we please stop with the jj arrington comments?Imo Peterson has a better line, Lynch a better qb. Peterson is the better runningback, but Lynch will catch out of the backfield. I think they should both have solid careers if they can stay healty.
 
One of these guys will be sharing the backfield with a guy named Chester Taylor, who had 1216 rushing yards, 288 receiving yards and 6 TDs last year.

 
Pittsburgh United said:
One of these guys will be sharing the backfield with a guy named Chester Taylor, who had 1216 rushing yards, 288 receiving yards and 6 TDs last year.
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hate to say it but if a-trian would have gotten the 300 carries on the vikes last year his stat line would have looked very similar.
 
I've heard many people mention that AD will share carries (maybe 50/50) with Chester. In the last preseason game, AD got the start and was only lifted for Chester a few times. It seemed more like a 75/25 split. Is that a sign of things to come (i.e. AD is the starter and gets the bulk of carries) in the regular season, or do you think the Vikes were just trying to get a read on Peterson?

I'm buying that the model we saw in the last game will be the model we see in the regular season...obviously the 3rd preseason game should give us a better idea.

 
i agree with most here....peterson and lynch don't even belong in the same sentence, besides the fact that they were drafted the same year...

 
Marshawn Lynch is a nice talent who could develop into a good NFL starter. Adrian Peterson is an outstanding talent who could develop into a hall of famer.

Adrian Peterson carried the load for three years in college, and has the injury history to show for it.

I think it's Peterson in dynasty and probably redraft too (more upside, more downside). I could easily see Peterson as the #1 overall dynasty player in a couple of years.

That about sums it up IMO.

 
Pittsburgh United said:
One of these guys will be sharing the backfield with a guy named Chester Taylor, who had 1216 rushing yards, 288 receiving yards and 6 TDs last year.
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6 TD's? What a juggernaught!! He also 4 costly fublmes. Taylor will be the backup after the bye week. No disresect to Lynch, but look at his stat lines in college. He will be fine, but he will not get 20+ touches a game in the Nfl.
 
BroadwayG said:
gianmarco said:
Adrian Peterson.End of discussion.
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It is insightful posts like these that keep me glued to the Shark Pool all season long.
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That was actually a very insightful post. As someone pointed out above, the only significant comparison between these two is that they were both drafted in 2007 and both play RB. There just isn't anything else to discuss when comparing the two. In terms of talent, ADP is far and away the better talent. Not sure what else there is to say that hasn't been brought up ad nauseum in many, many, many different threads. There isn't a single thing that Lynch can do better talent-wise. Even if you do find someone that thinks Lynch is better in any aspect, they will be in the minority.Peterson is faster, stronger, quicker, has better hands, is a better blocker, has better vision, has better game-breaking ability, and is even better-looking. What else really needs to be said?
 
Pittsburgh United said:
gianmarco said:
Peterson is faster, stronger, quicker, has better hands, is a better blocker, has better vision, has better game-breaking ability, and is even better-looking. What else really needs to be said?
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Now that you've added this solid analysis, I'm sold.
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This makes sense. The only piece of the entire argument you can argue is the portion about Peterson's looks. I noticed you didn't point out any of the information that points to Peterson being head and shoulders above Lynch. He is clearly superior in any measurable category, AND has a better work ethic.
 
gianmarco said:
Peterson is faster, stronger, quicker, has better hands, is a better blocker, has better vision, has better game-breaking ability, and is even better-looking. What else really needs to be said?
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While I highly doubt anybody will argue these facts (you're on your own though in terms of his looks), the point of this thread isn't to compare them in terms of their straight up talent. It is to compare them in terms of their FANTASY FOOTBALL value for this season only (redraft league).Is Peterson the better player and overall prospect? Yes.Is Lynch in a better situation? Yes.Are you saying that if Lynch touches the ball 23 combined times per game (18 carries - 5 receptions), and Peterson only touches the ball 18 times per game (15 carries - 3 receptions) .... Peterson is still the better FANTASY FOOTBALL player?
 
BroadwayG said:
I don't like either for redraft purposes. 1. I just don't buy into all of the rookie hype. 2. I don't believe either offense allows for too much 'upside' as far as production goes.3. Both are on teams with a solid veteran incumbent.Dynasty, on the other hand is a different story.
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1. Good point for some rookies, but not for all.2. Chester Taylor had 1200 yards and 6 TDs in Minnesota last year. Both offenses are rebuilding, but have a lot of very solid pieces in place.3. Chester Taylor is a solid player but not outstanding, but A Train is not my idea of solid veteran incumbents. Even in the case of Taylor, ADP is already looking like the Bush to New Orlean's Deuce. Lots of touches even this year.In Dynasty, I like both as future top 15 backs, but it's too early to tell how they'll develop. In PPR leagues, I may actually give the nod to Lynch, just to give a few guys around here a tantrum!
 
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The epitome of risk vs. reward here (although both are risky, one is clearly a bit riskier).

Lynch is more likely to get the lion's share of the workload (though I don't think him being a feature back is as much as a given as some do), but I think Peterson could do more with his touches. Lynch is in a better situation *only* because A-train is worse than Chester, but I don't think Buffalo is a better situation for RBs than Minnesota is, nor do I believe Lynch is near the talent level of AD.

 
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If Lynch ends up being the man all year then I would have to say his outlook for THIS year is better in terms of fantasy value.

At best, I think we have last year's Bush/Mcallister situation with regard to Taylor /ADP. While Bush had some nice games last year, he also had to share the load with Deuce which ultimately frustrated his owners. Taylor earned the starting role last year and played his ### off. ADP will have to earn his time on the field. I am not saying that he won't do that, but can we fantasy owners afford to fall behind in the standings while he shows his stuff?

 
Lynch has a chance to be a solid RB. He has talent.

AP has a chance to be a top 5 stud. He has uber talent.

There is a huge difference in the upside of these 2 players.

 
Something that everyone has focus on is the offense. Are we forgetting D? I know it is pre season but the Bills D in both games has allowed some drives that have eaten up the clock. If it were not for a blocked FG in the Saints game or going for it on 4th and goal in the Falcons game the box score would appear different. Their opponents have controlled the ball and ate the clock. I think the Bills will be throwing the ball because that D is not very good or very young and they will be behind. On the other hand, that Minny D is going to keep them in games that will allow and want them to run the ball with the QB situation the way it is. So for the people who think this year Lynch maybe better due to circumstance, I disagree. ADP all the way barring injury of course.

 
SanDawg said:
Something that everyone has focus on is the offense. Are we forgetting D? I know it is pre season but the Bills D in both games has allowed some drives that have eaten up the clock. If it were not for a blocked FG in the Saints game or going for it on 4th and goal in the Falcons game the box score would appear different. Their opponents have controlled the ball and ate the clock. I think the Bills will be throwing the ball because that D is not very good or very young and they will be behind. On the other hand, that Minny D is going to keep them in games that will allow and want them to run the ball with the QB situation the way it is. So for the people who think this year Lynch maybe better due to circumstance, I disagree. ADP all the way barring injury of course.
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Interesting perspective.
 
SanDawg said:
Something that everyone has focus on is the offense. Are we forgetting D? I know it is pre season but the Bills D in both games has allowed some drives that have eaten up the clock. If it were not for a blocked FG in the Saints game or going for it on 4th and goal in the Falcons game the box score would appear different. Their opponents have controlled the ball and ate the clock. I think the Bills will be throwing the ball because that D is not very good or very young and they will be behind. On the other hand, that Minny D is going to keep them in games that will allow and want them to run the ball with the QB situation the way it is. So for the people who think this year Lynch maybe better due to circumstance, I disagree. ADP all the way barring injury of course.
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You could twist this whereas Minnesota is entering the season with Bobby Wade as their number 1 WR and T. Jackson as their starting QB. Teams are going to play run, run, and run again on Minny. ADP better be special because he is going to have trouble finding daylight.In redraft: LynchIn Dynasty: Peterson
 
Carter_Can_Fly said:
SanDawg said:
Something that everyone has focus on is the offense. Are we forgetting D? I know it is pre season but the Bills D in both games has allowed some drives that have eaten up the clock. If it were not for a blocked FG in the Saints game or going for it on 4th and goal in the Falcons game the box score would appear different. Their opponents have controlled the ball and ate the clock. I think the Bills will be throwing the ball because that D is not very good or very young and they will be behind. On the other hand, that Minny D is going to keep them in games that will allow and want them to run the ball with the QB situation the way it is. So for the people who think this year Lynch maybe better due to circumstance, I disagree. ADP all the way barring injury of course.
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You could twist this whereas Minnesota is entering the season with Bobby Wade as their number 1 WR and T. Jackson as their starting QB. Teams are going to play run, run, and run again on Minny. ADP better be special because he is going to have trouble finding daylight.In redraft: LynchIn Dynasty: Peterson
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Also interesting perspective. However, the left side of Minnesota's Oline from Center to LT (Birk, Hutchinson, McKinnie) are the best trio in the business. They will still open up holes vs. any defense stacking the box or not.JMHO.
 
SanDawg said:
Something that everyone has focus on is the offense. Are we forgetting D? I know it is pre season but the Bills D in both games has allowed some drives that have eaten up the clock. If it were not for a blocked FG in the Saints game or going for it on 4th and goal in the Falcons game the box score would appear different. Their opponents have controlled the ball and ate the clock. I think the Bills will be throwing the ball because that D is not very good or very young and they will be behind. On the other hand, that Minny D is going to keep them in games that will allow and want them to run the ball with the QB situation the way it is. So for the people who think this year Lynch maybe better due to circumstance, I disagree. ADP all the way barring injury of course.
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Great perspective and another way to look at it is...The Vikes have T. Jackson at QB and a random group of WR. Those starters will never be confused with the Fouts, Jefferson/Chandler, Joiner and Winslow Chargers. At least the Bills have a QB, Losman, that began to look decent towards the end of last season and a WR, Evans, that can catch and stretch the field. He can do both. There is enough at WR2/3 to help keep a defense honest and allow Lynch to play against some soft fronts. That is from Day One. Likewise, Peterson will be seeing 8 all day or at least until Jackson and one of those WR prove they demand attention...an extra safety back. While the Vikes have a strong defense, that defense is likely to be on the field longer this season, as the team is void of a passing game. There are going to be a number of 3 and outs. More time on the field...more potential for injuries...guys get tired quicker...the other team starts to pound the run...less possessions on offense...Peterson's short-term value (this season)...takes a hit. Meanwhile, Lynch appears to be in a little better situation for this season. As far as the long-term, there is no reason to put the two in the same sentence. Peterson is that much better and overall they are two completely different football players with very different skill sets. In no way is that a knock on Lynch. Peterson is just that good. As was stated earlier, you win games with your best players on the field. Peterson is that much better than C. Taylor and I would say Peterson not Taylor is the guy from season's start. Taylor became Peterson's caddy on draft day. This applies towards Lynch also. He is multi dimensional on offense and great in space. He will add value to the offense's abilities or options for the Bills and Thomas is most likely on the bench sooner than later.
 
Anthony Borbely said:
Lynch has a chance to be a solid RB. He has talent. AP has a chance to be a top 5 stud. He has uber talent. There is a huge difference in the upside of these 2 players.
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I whole heartedly agree with this assessment. I do think it will be tough for Peterson to keep CT off the field, he has proven worthy of the starting job in Minny. I see his workload increasing as the season goes on. I see Lynch producing better numbers the first half of the season, but Peterson being a guy that will get you to the promised land during the playoff run.
 
FreeBaGeL said:
The epitome of risk vs. reward here (although both are risky, one is clearly a bit riskier).

Lynch is more likely to get the lion's share of the workload (though I don't think him being a feature back is as much as a given as some do), but I think Peterson could do more with his touches. Lynch is in a better situation *only* because A-train is worse than Chester, but I don't think Buffalo is a better situation for RBs than Minnesota is, nor do I believe Lynch is near the talent level of AD.
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Don't agree with that part.
 
Sabertooth said:
AD is the real deal. I think Lynch is going to by more JJ Arrington than Marshall Faulk.
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BroadwayG said:
3. Both are on teams with a solid veteran incumbent.
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gianmarco said:
Peterson is faster, stronger, quicker, has better hands,
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If these remarks make sense to anyone, pls explain them to me.Back to the topic: seems to me it's like this:

- Peterson is flashier and is more likely to have big games...but who knows what kind of sharsies he plays w/Taylor, never mind how pathetic the O appears to be in general. He also appears more of an injury risk.

- Lynch is solid but not the runaway threat (figuratively and literally) that Peterson is, but is the better receiver and clearly has a better O, and has no one of significance stealing his carries in all likelihood.

So it's basically a talent vs opportunity (more or less) debate and a case can be made either way.

Shall we re-hash it 50 more times?

 
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Lynch will probably earn a greater percentage of the carries in Buffalo than Peterson will in Minnesota but the Vikings will probably rush the ball more this year because A) their defense will keep the ball in the offense's hands and B) their offensive line is much, much better and they'll be able to run more effectively.

I think their touches will probably be pretty similar this year and I expect Peterson to have a greater YPC. It's prudent to assume Lynch will be at or below McGahee's 3.8 ypc since Lynch, to me, does not seem to be a much better runner than Willis. Peterson on the other hand will likely equal or outproduce Chester Taylor's 4.0 ypc last year since he seems to be a much better talent...

Advantage Peterson.

Both McGahee and Taylor had 6 TDs last year. I expect Peterson and Lynch to produce similar touchdowns this year but think Peterson is a more likely candidate to break off a couple long ones... While Peterson will be sharing carries with Taylor, I personally don't see Taylor as a threat inside the 10 to Peterson's carries...

Slight advantage to Peterson...

Even in a redraft, if you're going rookie RB Peterson is the pick. Who here would be real shocked if Peterson went all studly and finished in the top 12 RBs while Taylor got 5-10 carries a game? Who here would be shocked if Lynch finished in the top 12?

So, while it's likely to be close, I think it's unlikely Lynch vastly outproduces Peterson... barring freak injury.

 
steelcityman said:
Pittsburgh United said:
One of these guys will be sharing the backfield with a guy named Chester Taylor, who had 1216 rushing yards, 288 receiving yards and 6 TDs last year.
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so why did the Vikings draft APete first and not a QB, WR, DB???Taylor stinks.
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I don't think they drafted Peterson 7th overall because they think Taylor is not good enough. I think it is because they think Peterson is one of those once in a decade game changing talents. He was just too good to pass up. They are correct.
 
WhoDat said:
SanDawg said:
Something that everyone has focus on is the offense. Are we forgetting D? I know it is pre season but the Bills D in both games has allowed some drives that have eaten up the clock. If it were not for a blocked FG in the Saints game or going for it on 4th and goal in the Falcons game the box score would appear different. Their opponents have controlled the ball and ate the clock. I think the Bills will be throwing the ball because that D is not very good or very young and they will be behind. On the other hand, that Minny D is going to keep them in games that will allow and want them to run the ball with the QB situation the way it is. So for the people who think this year Lynch maybe better due to circumstance, I disagree. ADP all the way barring injury of course.
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Great perspective and another way to look at it is...The Vikes have T. Jackson at QB and a random group of WR. Those starters will never be confused with the Fouts, Jefferson/Chandler, Joiner and Winslow Chargers. At least the Bills have a QB, Losman, that began to look decent towards the end of last season and a WR, Evans, that can catch and stretch the field. He can do both. There is enough at WR2/3 to help keep a defense honest and allow Lynch to play against some soft fronts. That is from Day One. Likewise, Peterson will be seeing 8 all day or at least until Jackson and one of those WR prove they demand attention...an extra safety back.

While the Vikes have a strong defense, that defense is likely to be on the field longer this season, as the team is void of a passing game. There are going to be a number of 3 and outs. More time on the field...more potential for injuries...guys get tired quicker...the other team starts to pound the run...less possessions on offense...Peterson's short-term value (this season)...takes a hit.

Meanwhile, Lynch appears to be in a little better situation for this season. As far as the long-term, there is no reason to put the two in the same sentence. Peterson is that much better and overall they are two completely different football players with very different skill sets. In no way is that a knock on Lynch. Peterson is just that good.

As was stated earlier, you win games with your best players on the field. Peterson is that much better than C. Taylor and I would say Peterson not Taylor is the guy from season's start. Taylor became Peterson's caddy on draft day. This applies towards Lynch also. He is multi dimensional on offense and great in space. He will add value to the offense's abilities or options for the Bills and Thomas is most likely on the bench sooner than later.
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I don't remember Fouts and gang playing for the Viks last yr when Taylor racked up 1,200 yards and Buffalo had the same QB and WR last yr when McGahee was very mediocre. Viks have a great OL and Peterson is by far the more talented of the two. Lynch is no cinch to be a 20-25 carry back this yr to even make this a fair discussion. Jauron has said that they will be RBBC, now that may mean Lynch gets 15-17 carries or it could be he plays the hot hand each game and Lynch owners may have some very disappointing weeks.
 
Lynch-lovers (that sounds bad) keep using Chester Taylor and his performance last year as a reason why Lynch will outperform ADP. What many are failing to realize is that the talent difference between Lynch and A-Train is smaller than that between ADP and Taylor. Even if Lynch starts off with a higher ratio of carries, ADP will jump past Taylor a lot easier than Lynch will do so with A-Train.

 
Situation-wise Lynch is clearly in a better position. Ability-wise Peterson is clearly a better player. I think it's a matter of what you need in your draft. If you are in a position where you're loaded at WR and need a solid RB2 to put up consistently decent stats, Lynch should be your man. If you are drafting either guy as a RB3, I think Peterson's ceiling is much, much higher and you have to pick him over Lynch as your RB3.

Lynch should be more consistent but AP is a much better talent and will outproduce Lynch by year's end IMO.

 
The difference between the two is upside.

I have both projected around 210 points in a PPR league. I have the absolute bargin basement floor at 154 points for each. My ceiling for each varies significantly, I have Lynch at 250 points based on 1150/10 & 35/275/2 versus Peterson who checks in at just under 300 with 1450/13 & 32/275/3

 
I can already tell you what will happen at the end of this season through the off-season.

Lynch will be viewed as having a solid season and will be projected to go between rounds 2-4 in 2008 redrafts.

Taylor will be traded to a team needing a veteran RB. Peterson will be projected as a first rounder for 2008.

 
BroadwayG said:
I don't like either for redraft purposes.

1. I just don't buy into all of the rookie hype.

2. I don't believe either offense allows for too much 'upside' as far as production goes.

3. Both are on teams with a solid veteran incumbent.

Dynasty, on the other hand is a different story.
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I see the first two points, but I just don't know if I buy #3 anymore. Look at last year's rookies and their respective incumbents:Bush -> McCallister

Jones-Drew -> Taylor

Addai -> Rhodes

Maroney -> Dillon

Williams -> Foster

Each one of these guys has an established incumbent, and each was a legitimate fantasy starter. I don't have the data to argue that they all outperformed their ADP, but I would guess that all but Bush did (and I bet even he did in PPR).

Chester Taylor and Anthony Thomas are not any more solid than any of the incumbents last year.

 
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facook said:
I've heard many people mention that AD will share carries (maybe 50/50) with Chester. In the last preseason game, AD got the start and was only lifted for Chester a few times. It seemed more like a 75/25 split. Is that a sign of things to come (i.e. AD is the starter and gets the bulk of carries) in the regular season, or do you think the Vikes were just trying to get a read on Peterson?

I'm buying that the model we saw in the last game will be the model we see in the regular season...obviously the 3rd preseason game should give us a better idea.
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No. Chester Taylor started. http://www.nfl.com/liveupdate/gamecenter/2...YJ_Gamebook.pdf

But they threw 3 passes and punted. Second series Peterson came in.

Peterson did get a bigger load, but Taylor doesnt need so much preseason game time.

They were the two backs who played all the way to the end of the first half. A rbbc thus far. Could change though.

 
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BigSteelThrill said:
facook said:
I've heard many people mention that AD will share carries (maybe 50/50) with Chester. In the last preseason game, AD got the start and was only lifted for Chester a few times. It seemed more like a 75/25 split. Is that a sign of things to come (i.e. AD is the starter and gets the bulk of carries) in the regular season, or do you think the Vikes were just trying to get a read on Peterson?

I'm buying that the model we saw in the last game will be the model we see in the regular season...obviously the 3rd preseason game should give us a better idea.
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No. Chester Taylor started. http://www.nfl.com/liveupdate/gamecenter/2...YJ_Gamebook.pdf

But they threw 3 passes and punted. Second series Peterson came in.

Peterson did get a bigger load, but Taylor doesnt need so much preseason game time.

They were the two backs who played all the way to the end of the first half. A rbbc thus far. Could change though.
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Granted Chester started, but you are just kidding yourself if you think that he will perform equally to or greater than Peterson in 2007. By the end of the year Chester will be lucky if he has totaled 35% of the carries barring injury. More than likely it will be 60/40 Peterson the first three weeks or so before becoming a 75/25 split in carries. Chester may beinvolved in 3rd downs more than Adrian but the carries will probably end up 70/30 at season's end.
 
Penguin said:
The difference between the two is upside. I have both projected around 210 points in a PPR league. I have the absolute bargin basement floor at 154 points for each. My ceiling for each varies significantly, I have Lynch at 250 points based on 1150/10 & 35/275/2 versus Peterson who checks in at just under 300 with 1450/13 & 32/275/3
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WOW, AD is the steal of the draft then.reel it in people. both are rb3s with marginal rb2 upside.
 
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