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Martellus Bennett - playing musical chairs with the NFL (2 Viewers)

I posted this up in the Chris Hogan thread, but figured I'd post it here as well..

tone1oc said:
This morning I finally got around to running some projections.. A few things to note here, I used a hybrid of 2011-2012 play tendancies when they had Aaron Hernandez because with MB I think it's a more fair representation for 2017, I've also used the last 3 seasons of average to determine point margin per play and also pace, which I think they will go up this year. 

I also am framing this through the lens of Hogan filling the WR2/X role, if you don't like that or don't think its possible fine, I'm wearing my rose tinted glasses for this projection.  The key thing I wanted to take away is reasonable expectations if he slides into a particular role.   Also, this projection was passing centric, and there are a lot of questions marks in the running game, so take the rushing stats with an even smaller grain of salt.  

Fantasy scoring: 1 PPR, 1 pt for 25 yds passing, 4 pass TD, 2 pass INT
 


POS


PLAYER


paATTS


paCOMP


paPCT


paYDS


paTDS


paINT


ruATTS


ruYDS


ruTDS


ADP


RNK14


FP


QB


Brady, Tom


583.93


363.79


0.62


4228.92


35.58


16.06


45.57


170.35


1.70


10.00


15.00


302.63


POS


PLAYER


TRGS


RECS


recYDS


recYPR


recTDS


ruATTS


ruYDS


ruYPC


ruTDS


ADP


RNK14


FP


WR1


Edelman, Julian


128.46


88.79


1209.56


13.73


6.42


4.56


26.35


5.78


0.09


21.00


18.00


251.54


WR2


Hogan, Chris


87.59


54.93


707.06


12.87


5.03


0.00


0.00


4.53


0.00


52.00


55.00


156.81


WR3


Amendola, Danny


29.20


16.64


209.63


12.60


1.23


0.00


0.00


3.59


0.00


71.00


109.00


44.96


WR4+


ALL OTHER


52.55


28.38


364.72


12.85


1.89


0.00


0.00


0.00


0.00


0.00


0.00


76.20


POS


PLAYER


TRGS


RECS


recYDS


recYPR


recTDS


ADP


RNK14


FP


TE1


Gronkowski, Rob


105.11


87.27


945.96


14.06


9.46


1.00


6.00


218.62


TE2


Bennett, Martellus


70.07


44.85


459.67


10.25


7.01


34.00


18.00


132.86


POS


PLAYER


ruATTS


ruYDS


ruTDS


TRGS


RECS


recYDS


recYPR


recTDS


ADP


RNK14


FP


RB1


Lewis, Dion


182.29


769.28


4.92


75.91


56.93


512.40


9.00


3.68


30.00


10.00


236.68


RB2


Blount, LeGarrette


164.06


682.51


6.40


17.52


11.39


97.57


8.57


0.42


56.00


31.00


130.32


RB3


 


41.02


161.19


0.94


17.52


12.61


96.87


7.68


0.45


69.00


87.00


46.76


RB4+


ALL OTHER


18.23


77.84


0.42


0.00


0.00


0.00


0.00


0.00


0.00


0.00


10.30

So as it applies to Hogan and trying to factor the changes to the personnel with Bennet on board and also with some historical output he is in line for low end WR3 or high end WR4 output.  I also think that with the specialization of the NE offense that certain games will feature the passing game whereas certain games are going to be more run centric.  So I think you are going to be able to get chunks of production in certain matchups.  This will be key to his fantasy success on your roster IMO.

ETA:  Screwed up on Gronk's and **Jules'** projection initially, fixed that but Brady's totals are now slightly off but didn't want to redo it all because it's not that important to this topic
Click to expand...

 
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-CE- said:
Blah blah blah.  Make your own predictions.
Click to expand...
I predict that (1) Bennett will not put up the numbers you stupidly defined as his floor, (2) you will not back up your prediction with a $100 bet, and (3) you're going to somehow blame me for this.

You can either PM me to nail down the specifcs on the bet you offered when you opened your fat mouth, or shut up about it.  If you truly believe that those numbers represent his floor, let's boogie.  Otherwise I'm done here.

 
tangfoot said:
I predict that (1) Bennett will not put up the numbers you stupidly defined as his floor, (2) you will not back up your prediction with a $100 bet, and (3) you're going to somehow blame me for this.

You can either PM me to nail down the specifcs on the bet you offered when you opened your fat mouth, or shut up about it.  If you truly believe that those numbers represent his floor, let's boogie.  Otherwise I'm done here.
Click to expand...
Yup, move on #####.

 
ghostguy123 said:
I cant wait to shop bennet with the way some people think his value went way up.  Only takes one
Click to expand...
In leagues I own Gronk I'd like to pick him as a handcuff but I'm not in any hurry, figure best to wait and let reality set in first and go get him sometime after the season starts.

 
menobrown said:
In leagues I own Gronk I'd like to pick him as a handcuff but I'm not in any hurry, figure best to wait and let reality set in first and go get him sometime after the season starts.
Click to expand...
I think you should be able to get him at a reasonable price right now.  I would bet 10/12 owners per league view him as a total "meh" landing in New England. 

He should do ok with upside if Gronk is hurt, so yeah, as a Gronk owner in one league I will be asking about Bennett.

 
Back from my forced leave. 

I've heard a lot of takes on Bennett, from randoms in here, people from the Bears and Patriots subs, FBGs touched on it on this weeks audible. From better than Hernandez to as good or worse than Chandler.

My take, I think Bennett and Gronk share the field, I think they both see upwards of 90% of snaps. I think Bennett is the 2b to Gronks 2a in terms of targets, I think both could see 100+. Think its a safe bet Gronk has 10+ TDs, think its also a safe bet that Bennett has at least 7, and if he slides into the role I think he will fill that could easily be 10+.

Despite Bennett and Gronk possibly being the two best blocking TEs in the league, I'm not so sure they bring in a bruiser. I think if Brady plays a full 16 game season he will actually break his previous single season # of attempts, 637. 

I think the people valuating him as a low TE1 (FBGs) just aren't confident of Bennett's ability to pick up the system. I think low TE1 is his floor.

 
ESPN Patriots reporter Mike Reiss said Martellus Bennett worked one-on-one with Tom Brady in the red zone during practice Tuesday.
Considering almost the exact same report was made about Scott Chandler last season, it is wise to take this news with a bit of salt. Bennett should be more involved in the offense than Chandler, but his target upside will be capped as long as Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman are healthy. With his exact usage an unknown, Bennett has a wide range of outcomes as a fantasy commodity.

 
 
Source: Mike Reiss on Twitter 
Jun 7 - 2:19 PM
Click to expand...

 
ESPN Boston's Mike Reiss predicts Martellus Bennett will be a "big factor" in the Patriots' 2016 offense.
A sometimes malcontent in Dallas and Chicago, Bennett has had the right attitude at Patriots spring workouts as "usually the first tight end through drills" and "one of the more impressive players on the field." The Patriots are nursing a multitude of injuries at wide receiver, and could conceivably make two-tight end sets their base offense this year. Rob Gronkowski and Bennett can both block and are New England's two most imposing targets in the passing game.

 
 
Source: ESPN Boston 
Jun 15 - 6:44 AM




 

 
I really like Bennett and hope he stays cheap, but I saw Rich Hribar make a good point on twitter earlier today - in 2011 when both Gronk and Hernandez were strong TE1s together, the Pats passing game had really low involvement from the RBs (excluding Hernandez who played out of the backfield some). Looks like 58 targets for RBs that year whereas Dion Lewis had 50 and James White had 54 last year, along with another 30 for Bolden too. I think Bennett will need one of the other main options to get hurt to be an every week fantasy starter.

 
Maturation of players and development of the system are two reasons why I think comparing the unit this year, especially the TEs a folly.

Bennett isn't a player that ever needs to come off the field, like Gronk. This offense is gonna be different then anything they've done before. 

I expect to see similar concepts, I think Lewis will be used like Woodhead was where they just move him around and don't take him off the field. I think we see more no huddle, higher tempo. And I think Bennett is gonna be a big part of that, being able to shuffle him and Gronk around is gonna be a nightmare.

 
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FYI -

I saw today from Pats beat writer Mike Reiss that he expects NE to utilize a 2 TE set on 80% of their plays this season. I suspect that there will be plenty of production to go around for both Gronk and Bennett and Bennett is currently way undervalued in fantasy circles.

 
Anarchy99 said:
FYI -

I saw today from Pats beat writer Mike Reiss that he expects NE to utilize a 2 TE set on 80% of their plays this season. I suspect that there will be plenty of production to go around for both Gronk and Bennett and Bennett is currently way undervalued in fantasy circles.
Click to expand...
I agree that on the adp lists he looks way undervalued. But all I hear on everyone's podcasts is how you can wait on TE and get Bennett late. 

Multiple people in every league are going to have this plan so plan on reaching a bit if you want him. 

 
theothervcruz said:
Are people comfortable here with Bennett as not just their starting TE but only TE on their team?
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It's my plan B if I don't get Gates.  He will be one of the main targets when they are running their 2 TE sets.  And who are opponents going to put their best deffenders on at the goal line, him or Gronk?

 
theothervcruz said:
Are people comfortable here with Bennett as not just their starting TE but only TE on their team?
Click to expand...
I had Reed as a keeper, but would've been fine with Black Unicorn as my only TE.

In fact, I drafted him as Reed insurance and also because of his tremendous upside in the event of an injury to Gronk.

And I can FLEX a TE, so in certain circumstances I could start both. 

 
I have him as a TE1 on one of my teams. Wasn't the plan going in, but TEs went quick and he was still out there.

Definitely think he has upside in the Patriots offense. It's not like they're loaded with WR talent. Outside of Gronk and Edelman, who else do they have? Bennett easily slots in as their #3 passing option and a huge option in the red zone. And with Dion Lewis on the shelf to start, Bennett becomes even a better option in the short passing game.

 
Yeah, I think I'd be OK with him as my only TE. I'm planning on waiting on TE, so he's definitely in that tier with Ebron and Gates, maybe a bit behind Barnidge and Ertz, and a little ahead of Allen. In my league with a WR/TE flex, I might take a late-round flier on a second TE (Walford, JJames or McDonald), but it wouldn't be a priority.

 
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theothervcruz said:
Are people comfortable here with Bennett as not just their starting TE but only TE on their team?
Click to expand...


Grabbed him in the 13th round of my draft as my only TE. Tbh though, I'm looking at my roster and trying to work out who to drop for another TE with Ebron/McDonald/Walford and a few others on the wire. 

Not it entirely comfortable with him on his own but he's at least definitely a good person to pair with someone and an absolutely great player to keep tucked away incase Gronk goes down at any point. 

 
People rolling with just Bennett should be fine, as one would think they should have decent options in the line up at other spots by not investing early in TE.

New England is expected to work out of a 2 TE set as their base offense this season (projected to be 80% of total offensive snaps). It would not shock me if he put up Aaron Hernandez numbers. Based on that, Bennett could be in line for TE 6-8 production this year, possibly higher if Gronk misses significant time. (With TE scoring higher than several years ago, that's the range AH's numbers fall in these days.) I haven't really mapped out the impact Jimmy G. will have on the offense, but IMO Bennett stands an excellent chance of ranking in the Top 10.

 
Felt compelled to draft Jared Cook late after reaching for Bennett a bit. Hoping to strike gold at least with one if them, most likely Bennett. But didn't feel comfortable with only him on my roster.

 
pecorino said:
Felt compelled to draft Jared Cook late after reaching for Bennett a bit. Hoping to strike gold at least with one if them, most likely Bennett. But didn't feel comfortable with only him on my roster.
Click to expand...
I have paired Bennett with V. Green.  The price is cheap and I think the world is sleeping on a potential top 12 TE.

 
I guess I don't get the unmotivated comments. It's preseason. 2nd TE in BB 2 TE set for 80% of snaps sounds good to me. Things might be a tad slow until Brady starts, that's my bigger concern.

 
SaintsInDome2006 said:
I guess I don't get the unmotivated comments. It's preseason. 2nd TE in BB 2 TE set for 80% of snaps sounds good to me. Things might be a tad slow until Brady starts, that's my bigger concern.
Click to expand...
He is in his 9th year, on his 4th team, and is looking(or not) at signing his LAST contract. M Bennett might decide to play
hard or just coast along then retire. If the Patriots go 1-3 or 2-2 those first 4 games B Belichick is going to ride the team
hard. M Bennett does not respond well to that.

 
How solid is that 80% number? I keep hearing it, but wasn't it based on like one beat reporter's guess?

I like Bennett, but I worry about the echo chamber.

 
SaintsInDome2006 said:
Have you followed Belichick's career at all? BB doesn't install this offense if he doesn't know Bennett will be reliable and I don't think he will last a whole game halfassing it.
Click to expand...
You said you didn't get the unmotivated comments. He's had these criticisms every where he's been at one time or another.

It shouldn't be a surprise.

 
SaintsInDome2006 said:
Have you followed Belichick's career at all? BB doesn't install this offense if he doesn't know Bennett will be reliable and I don't think he will last a whole game halfassing it.
Click to expand...
I feel like after Dillon and Moss, BB got a rep as a headcase whisperer. I'm sure he's good at it, but it's not like his track record is 100% (Haynesworth, later-career Moss).

 
zftcg said:
I feel like after Dillon and Moss, BB got a rep as a headcase whisperer. I'm sure he's good at it, but it's not like his track record is 100% (Haynesworth, later-career Moss).
Click to expand...
Bennett reminds me of Blount....who outside of NE has always been labelled as a disinterested malcontent but who BB seems to have zero problem with.

It occurs to me that some players get labels they don't deserve based on how they carry themselves (see, for example, Corey Dillon), but BB's exclusive concern is on the field performance.

So...I'm a little concerned about whether or not Bennett will work out or not, but I do take comfort in what's being reported about 2 TE usage going forward...

 
Anybody starting him his week ? I drafted him late and would prefer to wait and see for a week but tbh I don't feel like making room on my roster for another TE off the wire. 

Also, Gronk is limited in practise. I'm sure he'll play but maybe Martellus gets involved quickly and they use Gronk a it more sparingly this week. 

 
Interesting...


ESPN Patriots reporter Mike Reiss said Rob Gronkowski (hamstring) is "not 100 percent healthy."
Gronk was limited in Wednesday's practice, and it is concerning he is still hobbled by a hamstring injury suffered more than three weeks ago. Reiss also notes the Patriots kept an extra tight end on their roster, although that could also be an indication of their plan to use more two-TE sets. It still seems likely Gronk will play, but it would be reassuring if he got in a full practice this week.

 
TartanLion said:
Anybody starting him his week ? I drafted him late and would prefer to wait and see for a week but tbh I don't feel like making room on my roster for another TE off the wire. 

Also, Gronk is limited in practise. I'm sure he'll play but maybe Martellus gets involved quickly and they use Gronk a it more sparingly this week. 
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I'm starting him in the league I have him in. It's either Bennett or McDonald. I want to go McDonald, but the Cardinals are usually soft against TEs and I could see Garappolo going to Gronk/Bennett often.

 
MattFancy said:
I'm starting him in the league I have him in. It's either Bennett or McDonald. I want to go McDonald, but the Cardinals are usually soft against TEs and I could see Garappolo going to Gronk/Bennett often.
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Funny you say that but McDonald was who I was considering picking up off the wire and playing him over. Just don't particularly want to drop anyone off my roster though. 

 
TartanLion said:
Anybody starting him his week ? I drafted him late and would prefer to wait and see for a week but tbh I don't feel like making room on my roster for another TE off the wire. 

Also, Gronk is limited in practise. I'm sure he'll play but maybe Martellus gets involved quickly and they use Gronk a it more sparingly this week. 
Click to expand...
I'm starting him in one league where my draft strategy was to wait on TE.   I have to say that I feel very uneasy about it.   I feel like my team is strong enough to where as long as he doesn't completely suck--I should have a chance to win.  I would be thrilled if he goes for something like 3-4 receptions and 40 or so yards.  

 
TartanLion said:
Funny you say that but McDonald was who I was considering picking up off the wire and playing him over. Just don't particularly want to drop anyone off my roster though. 
Click to expand...
I want to see how McDonald is utilized first I guess. Though, he does make for an interesting play since the 49ers don't really have any other options in the passing game.

 
I'm starting him in dyno/redraft/daily.

I don't think there's a scenario gameplan wise that hurts Bennett in this game, in fanduel he's 5100, not bad.

 
If Brady was playing, I'd consider Bennett with Gronk being less than 100%. But not with Garapolo. Especially at Arizona.

 
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