ghostguy123
Footballguy
Unfortunately not in the one league I have pick 1.
Nobody there wants to make a blockbuster deal for a rookie
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WR Marvin Harrison Jr., ARZ (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter massraider
- Start date
Nobody there wants to make a blockbuster deal for a rookie
The guy with 1.1 and 1.2 in my SF/TE premium home league would agree. Team devoid of talent has hoped to cash in but the other teams refuse to bite in top 8. 3-6 for 1. Squashed. 5-8 for 2 squashed. The team with 4 is very happy to get whoever drops. I think if 1.1 is luxury pick because you found your grasshopper is one thing but if 1.1 earned and deserved like it is for this team, you’re probably limited in how many teams you can trade with. Finding Soulfly sucker becomes much harder.
osubuckeyeman
Footballguy
I don't think MHJ will land in a bad spot and the discussions of staying or moving up won't be necessary. The player is pretty good at all aspects of his game. I tried my best to nickpick him and I just could not. The only thing I could find was he did take some plays off here and there mainly when he was lined up way away from the designed play. He tends to get dinged up occasionally, and I had to push that narrative. I'm going to do the same process with Nabers today so I will be able to compare. I'm just starting my rookie reviews so I'll have a better idea later on the rest of the prospects in the class but if we are just talking about MHJ in a vacuum then I can say if you stay and pick MHJ that is not a bad consolation prize if your goal was to move the pick for a haul.
osubuckeyeman
Footballguy
One thing you can do is try to trade him later for the haul. He goes off in a few games then move him. You might get the haul you want then. It seems like a first-world problem to me. I can see what you're saying and I think you are right. It's a deeper class for sure.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Good shtick. Josh Gordon says hi.
Chaos34
Footballguy
Possible landing spots are Washington, New England, Arizona, Chargers, and Giants.
Cards and Chargers sound good, but the others not so much. Teams predicted to trade up are supposedly doing so for a QB, not Harrison.
I like Nabers a smidge better with a degree of confidence of 2%, but apparently several teams like him a little better too. So I s'pose that puts Tennessee, Atlanta, and Chicago in play. Atlanta and Chicago sound good to me, but if he suffers this unlikely fall, then some really interesting teams may pounce. Oof, I'm rambling. The draft can't get here soon enough.
Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
I don't think Chicago is a good spot.
Two already fantastic options and a rookie QB is not the vibe.
Two already fantastic options and a rookie QB is not the vibe.
Chaos34
Footballguy
Ya'll talking dynasty, so I'm thinking long-term. Harrison is arguably better than Moore and Allen right now not just as a dynasty add, and Caleb is gonna Caleb.
osubuckeyeman
Footballguy
Pretty sure Washington is not in play and Chicago would have to move up more than likely from 9. Arizona and Los Angeles are more likely based on what all the teams have done in free agency. Chicago needs help on the defensive side and can stay at 9 or even move down and still accomplish a top defensive player or offensive lineman. I think they addressed what they wanted to accomplish in the WR room for the moment. It's a deep WR class so they can get another pretty good WR later in the draft. It's all speculation. If a team or two have Nabers ahead of MHJ and Nabers goes first then it's a crapshoot. New England is possible and depending on what they want to do he surely can end up there but the Vikings seem to be moving into the top 5 and New England or Los Angeles seem like the most likely partners. New England could stick and pick their franchise QB. I would think the QB first is how most NFL GMs would operate. You can not be sure but If I was in a position to speculate then I'm going with Arizona or Los Angeles. Based on this belief, you should move to get the 1.1 if MHJ is your goal. If you wait till after the draft and he lands in Arizona or Los Angeles the price will be even more than it is now.
Soulfly3
Footballguy
josh gordon wasnt talented? is this your argument?
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Nah, was just interrupting the chest thumping to give you light hearted grief.
I agree with your premise that plenty of FF folks would overpay for MHJ because of his name.
Soulfly3
Footballguy
it's not chest thumping, it's just cold hard truth... my WR scouting game is orcinus orca.
and I really find it odd that ppl are disagreeing. they argue on one hand he's the biggest WR prospect in forever, and then try to argue people won't pay up to get him... I dont get it. I am certain that in MOST leagues (not all), the person with #1 can get an offer from #2 or #3 that'd be worth their while.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Truth would be 2+2=4
This isn’t cold hard truth. It’s your opinion. Possibly backed by some type of backward looking assessment, possibly just pure posturing. I don’t know and really don’t care either way.
Again, fully agree with your view on MJH and the dynamics of most leagues.
Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
The statement 'Nabers and Odunze are not notably worse than MHJ', which seems to be the foundation of your evaluation here, is not exactly some breath taking revelation.
I entirely disagree that most leagues would have someone who would overpay to move from 2 or 3 into 1. But that's just a feeling, same as yours, based on nothing.
I entirely disagree that most leagues would have someone who would overpay to move from 2 or 3 into 1. But that's just a feeling, same as yours, based on nothing.
osubuckeyeman
Footballguy
I do not think it is an argument if they want to move to the 1.1 but I think it's what it would take to get that done and the value of the pick they currently have. What would that compensation package look like? I own the 1.1 in a 1QB league. I'm also a contending team that Lotto lucked into the 1.1 through a trade last season so maybe it is different for my situation. I would not be against moving back but what compensation package is the question. In my situation, I made that trade knowing it could be the 1.1 and MHJ could be the pick so I have been holding onto that mindset for a long while. However, I always keep an open mind, and if there is a package that helped my roster win and support another run at a championship I would listen.
If you hoped to talk me into some low compensation package to get the 1.1 with an argument that your 1.2/1.3 was an almost even deal it shouldn't take much more than that value to move back. Well then make your pick and I'll make mine. The deal needs to better my chances of winning now or if you earned the 1.1 rebuilding your roster the package has to help me meet my goals in rebuilding. I would rather make my pick and sell high on whoever I chose to rebuild if necessary. I would have to be convinced to move back.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
"Most" leagues aren't very competative
Soulfly3
Footballguy
That's just it. We're a real minority on this forum.
farfromforgotten
Footballguy
I’d take Marvin over the other WRs, regardless of landing spot and that’s not throwing shade on them. I’m not sure what I’d be willing to pay for him because I rarely ever have rookie picks it seems. Without looking over a list I guess I’d pay a WR around the #9-12 range.
I’ve pointed this out somewhere before but the people will “pay for the name” is a ridiculous and lazy argument. Jerry Rice’s boy and, I just found this out myself, Terrell Owens’ boy are both in this draft class at the WR position as well and you hardly hear a peep in regards to them and their chances of being great in the NFL. Harrison’s talent is real, name or not.
I’m not an OSU fan but I live in the state so I’ve seen plenty of games. I rank the recent WRs that have come out of the program as Harrison, Olave, Wilson, and JSN. Olave and Wilson are presumed to be top 10 WRs and JSN a top 20.
I’ve pointed this out somewhere before but the people will “pay for the name” is a ridiculous and lazy argument. Jerry Rice’s boy and, I just found this out myself, Terrell Owens’ boy are both in this draft class at the WR position as well and you hardly hear a peep in regards to them and their chances of being great in the NFL. Harrison’s talent is real, name or not.
I’m not an OSU fan but I live in the state so I’ve seen plenty of games. I rank the recent WRs that have come out of the program as Harrison, Olave, Wilson, and JSN. Olave and Wilson are presumed to be top 10 WRs and JSN a top 20.
I generally agree if you are the teams #1 that volume will work itself out, and I'd also prefer MHJ landed with the Giants then the Jets, but then you got situations like Drake London that give you pause. London's jumped about 3 rounds in redrafts since they signed Cousins, just a sign of how impactful just a good QB can be on someone's value, performance tbd.
Don't want to be sitting around for the next how many years hoping the team figures it out. Don't want to be coming into this thread next year saying stuff like, "I'm still really high on MHJ....it's not him....he just needs a QB..."
But right now I'm just creating something to be possibly be leery about or think ahead on. ZERO part of me believes he's in play for pick 3 and only way I think he's a Giant is if the top 5 picks are 4 QB's and Nabers.
Harrison is either Cardinals or Chargers I think. Anyone else is either taking a QB, or trading down with someone trading up for a QB.
I do think the Bears could very much still be in play for a WR at #9, as I think they've identified that one major issue in developing QBs for them, has been not surrounding them with enough to work with. I don't see them making that mistake with Caleb, especially as the defense (with arguably less talent than it has right now) finished the season very strong. They also seem to really like Braxton Jones at LT.
Speaking from a redraft perspective, I think if Harrison goes to the Cardinals or Chargers, he's a borderline WR1 as a rookie. Fully agree if he ends up with either team, the price for the 1.1 rookie pick is gonna be every bit as high as it was for Bijan last year.
Top-10 easily. Probably depends on team build for a couple cases, so I'd say roughly WR7.
I'd call it probably but I can't call it a lock. Both of those teams have made it abundantly clear they want to move back. One likely can get a team to move up for a QB, just a question if he other team can as well but I have zero doubt both want to move back. My money would be on only one can. I'm not 100% sure the Charger would take MHJ if they are at 5, probably, but they've been pretty clear from their actions and words how they want to build their team.
Just think people should have a little more open mind in general. Was a time it was considered nonsense to not project MHJ in top 3, to have teams that don't need a QB want to trade back instead of pick him or to have someone like a McCarthy in top 10.
I never called anything a lock, and specifically used the words, "I think"
None of us know for sure what will happen on draft day. Just like I'd argue NFL GMs don't necessarily know better than we do.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
That makes sense. I think Jefferson, Chase, CeeDee and the Browns have to be above Marv. After that, it gets interesting.
Not for me, especially AJB.
And fwiw I offered ASB for 1.1 awhile ago, had some other small stuff in it, but got rejected and told it was not for sale so the other stuff was not the issue. I'm actually ok with that rejection, was a little unsure of it when I made it, part of it was also trying to create some roster space which I've since done. So that's a tough call between those two, I'd lean having the 1.1 though, a little easy call for me vs AJB who I'd also take Nabers over.
You did and sorry I missed it.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Interesting. I guess AJ is about to turn 28. I thought he was a little younger. Amon Ra won't turn 25 until mid season. I prefer the known value over the unknown here. He's pretty much locked into the team and QB. Very safe asset IMO. Hard to see much risk.
Da Franchise
Footballguy
Washington is not a possible landing spot.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Of course it is. Just really unlikely.
Da Franchise
Footballguy
It’s also possible the sun burned out 7 minutes ago and we’ll find out about it in another 60 seconds.
We’re taking a quarterback.
kutta
Footballguy
I think he did you a favor. I love MHJ as much as the next guy, but if he becomes ASB then he’s doing pretty damn well.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
Yeah that trade would be the epitome of the family guy mystery box meme "A boats a boat, but the mystery box could be anything! It could even be a boat!"
Appreciate the input, don't want to clog this thread but will point out there was a little more to my thought process.
First got to say I had a huge goal of clearing roster space, had several players I wanted to keep and it was actually stressing me a little I had to cut them if I could not work it out. So to begin with ASB for 1.1 was going to allow me to keep a player I was looking at cutting. I mentioned "there was some other small stuff" in the trade ,maybe I undersold it and it was a little bigger then small stuff. It's a TEP league and I noticed the team was pretty weak at TE, so part of my offer was including Likely for his 2.4 and I think I was throwing in a mid round pick, can't remember, something like a late 4th I think.
Likely is someone I had designated to keep, and did end up keeping after we had to cut down to 14 position players, but I had 4-5 players I liked just a little less then him I wanted to keep I was faced with cutting and would have been happy to turn him into a draft pick and keep one of the other players. So to me the basis of the trade was not just ASB for 1.1 but creating two extra roster spots and obtaining a solid 2.4 pick.
Now that was my offer and the team I made the offer to had just bought the team. Had he countered asking to remove the LIkely/2.4 part would I have done it? I had not made up my mind yet, would have tried to work in one of those cuts I had for a third or something but if not was leaning straight up ASB for 1.1 in part on idea it would create at least one extra roster spot. But the guy just told me he thought my offer was interesting and fair, but he bought the team specifically to draft MHJ and that was that.
Now also this trade offer was made in January or early February, can't recall exacty but when it was assumed Ben Johnson was leaving. I'm worried about that impact, if I recall ASB broke out his rookie season when Ben Johnson started to have more say in the offense. I'm worried specficaly even with Johnson remaining but especialy so if he leaves that there are to many mouths to feed for ASB to continue being among the top target leaders in the league as I expect second year Laporta and Gibbs roles to increase, as well as ome others. Statisical growth is not always linear as we know. ASB went from about 16 fantasy points a game to 20.5. I guess I have my doubts, especially without Ben Johnson, he remains in that realm and fear he's more likely to decrease a little.
Saying all that even now that Ben Johnson has returned there have been 8 startups with first round data from the last week in this format and ASB is going 5 and MHJ is 6. So again looking at this back when I thought Johnson was exiting and either creating 1 or 2 roster spots and/or picking up a nice pick made sense to me, and still does.
I'm good with the rejection, especialy now because I managed to clear some of that roster space and added 1.1 in another leauge for a lot less then what I was offering here and have now reached a point where I'm no longer trying to buy 1.1 since I've obtained in 3 leagues. Also my team is a contender and I would have viewed ASB to MHJ as a step back in year one.
Just explaining my thought process.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
Makes a lot of sense with the roster management aspect intertwined you explained. Thanks for taking that time.
Really the only thing I couldn't believe is MHJ going at 6 in those startups. But here I am looking at KTC now and I guess it makes sense. A few highly touted WRs of the past few drafts haven't really elevated themselves into that elite tier yet; namely London and Wilson. Then you got Hill aging himself out value wise for dynasty, and various question marks around a few like AJ Brown, Puka, Waddle, Smith, Aiyuk. Could certainly make arguments for some of them ahead of MHJ, but I wouldn't feel comfortable enough to throw money behind any of those bets. Maybe I'm still too low on MHJ, despite having him at 1.01. But you know how 1.01 one year isn't necessarily the same value as 1.01 another; I think from a macro look I haven't considered him as a Green/Johnson/Julio level prospect with value exceeding the typical 1.01. Even if winds up not that level, there seems to be a vacuum for him to step into. For as deep as WR is on the whole, the top tier suddenly feels pretty shallow; with even some of the current members like JJ (QB) and ARSB (what you brought up) having their own question marks.
Appreciate the thought exercise here. Might have to push a little harder to get in a position to take at least one of these top 3 WRs this year.
Faust
MVP
Alfredo Brown
Words to describe Marvin Harrison Jr:
Elite Hands
@FantasyBluechip and I discussed what makes him a GENERATIONAL prospect.
WATCH: youtu.be/A407IiIv1cE?si…
Blick
Footballguy
Wait until he catches 6 balls week 1 and jumps into the Elite tier, maybe even WR1.
-OZ-
Footballguy
The good thing with MHJ is even if he doesn’t do really well as a rookie he’ll maintain top 12 status. If he performs as expected, he might be worth more than JJ.
I wouldn’t trade the 1 in regular dynasty for any player other than Bijan, Chase, JJ, maybe lamb, breece and Gibbs.
cdclopper
Footballguy
Im still trying to make sense of why the guy who just exceeded both JJ's and Chase's rookie year is worth less than a rookie who could do that.
