Why does the dog have to move around the pond, when the duck is swimming in his smaller circle? If the dog is Pi faster, he does not really need to leave his side of the pond until the duck commits to cross the center, right? The Dog simply heads to the shore closest to the duck's circle.
I don't think I understand your question completely. Here's a slightly different explanation that might make sense?
Picture when the duck is really close to center, he can swim in a circle around the center faster than the dog can run around the pond.
Now also picture that when the duck is really close to shore, the dog can run around the pond faster than the duck can swim in a circle around the center.
There's some point in between where that change occurs - a distance from center at which the duck can swim around center at the same exact speed as the dog can run around the pond.
No matter what the radius of the pond is, or what their relative speeds are, this point exists (and it's precisely R/X away from center). The duck's strategy is to get to that point, and be positioned on the opposite side of center from the dog. From there he just swims straight to shore and hopes to get there before the dog can. The mathy bits above show that if X is greater than (pi + 1), the dog will catch the duck.
So to (maybe) answer your question, the dog really doesn't have to move until the duck reaches that inner circle. The duck's going to get there anyway, and is going to position himself opposite from the dog. The only thing that matters is from that point forward, if the dog is more than (pi+1) times faster than the duck, he'll catch him; if he isn't, he won't.