Suppose a casino invents a new game that you must pay $250 to play. The game works like this: The casino draws random numbers between 0 and 1, from a uniform distribution. It adds them together until their sum is greater than 1, at which time it stops drawing new numbers. You get a payout of $100 each time a new number is drawn.
For example, suppose the casino draws 0.4 and then 0.7. Since the sum is greater than 1, it will stop after these two draws, and you receive $200. If instead it draws 0.2, 0.3, 0.3, and then 0.6, it will stop after the fourth draw and you will receive $400. Given the $250 entrance fee, should you play the game?
Specifically, what is the expected value of your winnings?
[Editor’s note: You know how sometimes your boss/teacher asks you not to bring your laptop to a meeting/class, and you’re all like, “Jeez, how am I gonna tweet during the meeting/class, then?” Well, I’m going to pull rank and ask that you don’t bring laptops to this Riddler. Next week I will highlight — nay, celebrate! — the elegant, pencil-and-paper solutions over the brutal, cold, silicon ones. We’re all on the honor system with one another, right? RIGHT?]
Well the puzzle isn't limited to the first decimal. Any number between 0 and 1 can be chosen - 0.5, 1/3, pi/4, 0.999999...., etc.Assuming the numbers are to the first decimal, and that 0 and 1 cannont be drawn (only can draw 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5....0.9), my guess is that the expected win is $200. Since the cost is $250, I would not play...
I think you have 100% chance of getting $200, since you still get paid on the draw that puts the total over 1.0 (again assuming 0 and 1 are excluded from the set).Well you have 100% chance of getting $100
Seems like you have a 50% chance of getting the second $100 - so an expected value of $150 to this point. It would decrease dramatically from here - so I don't see you getting close to even the $200 EV, let alone $250
That's my assumption as well from the wording "between 0 and 1"I think you have 100% chance of getting $200, since you still get paid on the draw that puts the total over 1.0 (again assuming 0 and 1 are excluded from the set).
Yeah, I missed that detail.I think you have 100% chance of getting $200, since you still get paid on the draw that puts the total over 1.0 (again assuming 0 and 1 are excluded from the set).
does it matter if the same number could be re-drawn more than once?Well the puzzle isn't limited to the first decimal. Any number between 0 and 1 can be chosen - 0.5, 1/3, pi/4, 0.999999...., etc.
I think I know what the answer is, and I do think that you can arrive at the right answer by starting with a simpler case like yours and then seeing what happens as the gap between possible numbers goes to 0.
Given the infinite number set that can be chosen, I am going to guess no.does it matter if the same number could be re-drawn more than once?
I was thinking of Iggy's suggestion of starting with a simple case (0.1, 0.2, ...0.9). If I could draw 0.1, 0.1, 0.1 that's much different than if I could only (best case) draw 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4...Given the infinite number set that can be chosen, I am going to guess no.
I actually think they are included, although I don't think it ultimately matters whether you include them or not. We're dealing with limits to infinity anyway so "less than 1" and "less than or equal to 1" are basically the same thing.That's my assumption as well from the wording "between 0 and 1"
Assume that the same number can be drawn multiple times.does it matter if the same number could be re-drawn more than once?
Yes, I missed that detail. I was assuming that if you went over one, you were not paid for that drawing - big difference.Well you have 100% chance of getting $100
Seems like you have a 50% chance of getting the second $100 - so an expected value of $150 to this point. It would decrease dramatically from here - so I don't see you getting close to even the $200 EV, let alone $250
First reaction is that since both the min and mean number of draws is 2.0 you'd lose $50 half the time, and win at least $50 1/2 the time. So it's +EV due to the tail where you hit on 4/5/6 small numbers before they sum > one.
Yeah, I don't think it's too important to get hung up on the edge cases. Solve the problem as if 1 is included, or if it isn't. Either way when you extrapolate to what happens in the continuous case I think you'll end up with the same answer either way. I even think it probably doesn't matter whether you solve for just reaching a sum of 1, or if you strictly have to exceed 1 - in the discrete case it would mean you go about things a little differently but when you take the limit to infinity they probably work out to the same thing.Even if 1 is included in the range of possible numbers, you are guaranteed to get two numbers for $200. The game doesn't end until the sum is greater than 1.
Edit: whoops, already said, didn't see there was another page I hadn't read yet
Three very skilled logicians are sitting around a table — Barack, Pete and Susan. Barack says: “I’m thinking of two natural numbers between 1 and 9, inclusive. I’ve written the product of these two numbers on this paper that I’m giving to you, Pete. I’ve written the sum of the two numbers on this paper that I’m giving to you, Susan. Now Pete, looking at your paper, do you know which numbers I’m thinking of?”
Pete looks at his paper and says: “No, I don’t.”
Barack turns to Susan and asks: “Susan, do you know which numbers I’m thinking of?” Susan looks at her paper and says: “No.”
Barack turns back to Pete and asks: “How about now? Do you know?”
“No, I still don’t,” Pete says.
Barack keeps going back and forth, and when he asks Pete for the fifth time, Pete says: “Yes, now I know!”
First, what are the two numbers? Second, if Pete had said no the fifth time, would Susan have said yes or no at her fifth turn?
If you do, suggest -5^2 as the next weekly puzzle.I recently found out this dude lives in my neighborhood. Supposedly he goes to this ####ty little Irish Pub here and there around the corner from my house. Hope I run into him one day.
Esplanation of my process
Round 1
When Pete doesn’t know on the first guess, we can immediately eliminate any products with only 1 pair of factors (primes and squares of primes), leaving products 4, 6, 8, 9, 12, 16, 18, 24 as possibilities.
Based on this, the sum must be between 4 and 13 inclusive, but when Susan doesn’t know, we can eliminate sums 4, 12 and 13, as there is only way to get each of those sums and still get one of the possible products.
Round 2
When Pete doesn’t know, it eliminates 4 as a product, since there is only way left to get there. When Susan still doesn’t know, it then eliminates 5 as a sum
Round 3
When Pete still doesn’t know, it eliminates 6 as a product. When Susan still doesn’t know, it eliminates 7 as a sum
Round 4
When Pete still doesn’t know, it eliminates 12 as a product. When Susan still doesn’t know, it eliminates 8 as a sum
Round 5
On Pete’s 5th turn, there is only one unique product left: 16, which must be the product of 2 and 8, since 4 and 4 were eliminated when Susan didn’t know in round 4.
If Pete had still not known, that would have eliminated 16 as a product, but would still have left 2 ways to get each of sums 6, 9, 10, and 11, so Susan would not know either.
Well, crap. Now I wish i had saved my working doc where I was tracking all the combinations.Isn't the product of 36 still an option for Pete after round 1? (6x6 and 4x9)
That's ruled out after Susan says no in round 1.Isn't the product of 36 still an option for Pete after round 1? (6x6 and 4x9)
Correct, after Susan - not after Pete. I didn't mean to say he was wrong. He nailed it. Lots of leg work involved in this one.That's ruled out after Susan says no in round 1.
Editing a second time to indicate that I don't see how "Napoleonic" has anything to do with the puzzle, and it isn't necessary for solving.Can You Solve This Napoleonic Puzzle?
...
Now here’s this week’s Riddler, short but deadly, a Napoleonic puzzle.
Complete this series:
10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 21, 23, 30, 33, …
(Yep, that’s it.)
I actually have no idea what "Napoleonic" has to do with the puzzle. Perhaps there's a connection I'm missing but it doesn't seem relevant at all to me. Apologies for confusion, I originally assumed it was related but I'll edit my post above to reflect that.I'm not familiar with the term "Napoleonic puzzle". Any change you can define it without giving away the answer to the puzzle itself?
After re-reading the column I'm thinking maybe Napoleonic was just a punny reference to this week's puzzle being "short but deadly." Not entirely sure what he was going for but I wouldn't focus on it, doesn't really relate to the problem in any way I can see.Could it be "Napoleonic" because the number of possible digits is short?
no 8 or 9
I think I figured it out.![]()
As a hint, here are some similar (complete) sequences that are constructed in the same way as the one in the puzzle:Yeah, I still got nothing. Mind sharing your answer in a spoiler?
3, or 2?As it turns out, the digits you mentioned don't appear in any of the final three terms in the sequence either, so maybe you're right.![]()
3, although I guess you could argue that the third and last one is sort of trivial and pointless.3, or 2?
That's awesome, very clever. I gave up pretty quickly and just brute-forced a solution instead, but meant to revisit it this week since I knew there had to be a much nicer solution.Here's an answer for C. Coin Jam:
Pick any 500 numbers between 0 and 16383. Write them in binary, as 14-digit numbers (including leading 0's). Then, for each of them, make a 28-digit binary number by duplicating each digit twice in a row. For example, 00000000110101 becomes 00,00,00,00,00,00,00,00,11,11,00,11,00,11 (I have added a comma after each pair of digits for ease of reading). Then add an extra "11" to the beginning and end - with this example number you'd get 11000000000000000011110011001111. These are your jamcoins.
In base 10, they are all divisible by 11. In base nine, they are all divisible by ten. In base eight, they are all divisible by nine. ... And in base two, they are all divisible by three. In base b, they are all divisible by b+1 (in other words, the first sentence of this paragraph is true regardless of which base you interpret it as being written in).
The rightmost 2 digits equal b+1 (since they are always both 1). The next 2 rightmost digits equal (b+1)*b^2 if both are 1 or 0 if both are 0. The next 2 rightmost digits equal (b+1)*b^4 if both are 1 or 0 if both are 0. Then (b+1)*b^6 for the next pair of digits, etc. So we're just adding up a bunch of things which are all divisible by (b+1).
I initially started thinking that you could do this with divisibility rules. You can make each number be divisible by three in base ten by making sure that the number of 1's is a multiple of 3 (since you can check if a number is divisible by 3 by seeing if the digits sum to a multiple of 3). You can make each number be even in base three by making sure that the number contains an even number of 1's. And those two rules actually make your number non-prime in bases 4, 5, 7, and 9 as well. When I tried to come up with how to get the number to be divisible by three in base two, I realized that the answer would actually cover all of the bases. This version gives you up to 16384 jamcoins, and a slight variant can get you more.