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Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears

Player Page Link: Matt Forte Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or :popcorn: ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
nervous, very nervous...

coming back from injury, coming late to camp? and a very good shared back situation..

really tempering expectations...

1200 yards

400 rec yards

9 tds on the ground

3 in the air...

 
nervous, very nervous...coming back from injury, coming late to camp? and a very good shared back situation..really tempering expectations...1200 yards400 rec yards9 tds on the ground3 in the air...
1600 yards and 12 tds is tempering expectations? I'll go with 1500 total yards 3 total tds
 
1050/6 TDs on the ground

475/3TDs in the air

1525/9TDs Combined yardage, TDs

Bush vultures a lot of opportunity even if there are zero issues with health or contract status.

 
this guy is a solid citizen and i hope he has a good year because the bears are doing him wrong in a major way take that to the bank brohans

 
Now that Forte has all but committed to being there for the season, does anyone have any new projections?

 
Above average RB In a below average situation. 12500/8
9,000 rush3.500 rec?
So tough to predict in the new offensive system. He is no longer a poor-man's Marshall Faulk. I will say rushing 1050/4 td and receiving 200/1 td for a total of 1250/5 td. Its early, but I think you can look to the passing game in Chicago to provide most of the bang this season.
Even in a pass-friendly offense under Martz the offense still ran through Forte for the past two years. They aren't going to suddenly throw it 50 times a game because they picked up Marshall and a decent rookie WR.

Last year they were 51/49 pass/run and I thoroughly expect that ratio to remain the same. Bush will get 7-10 touches a game, and Marshall will get a lot of the pass looks, but Forte is still the beast to own in that offense.

I view those other additions as increasing the effectiveness of the non-Forte touches in the offense rather than taking away his touches, and I would be shocked if he has less than 80% of his fantasy points from 2011. Expecting a rock solid 18 PPG from him this year, with upside.

1200/7

500/50/2

 
Above average RB In a below average situation. 12500/8
9,000 rush3.500 rec?
So tough to predict in the new offensive system. He is no longer a poor-man's Marshall Faulk. I will say rushing 1050/4 td and receiving 200/1 td for a total of 1250/5 td. Its early, but I think you can look to the passing game in Chicago to provide most of the bang this season.
Even in a pass-friendly offense under Martz the offense still ran through Forte for the past two years. They aren't going to suddenly throw it 50 times a game because they picked up Marshall and a decent rookie WR.

Last year they were 51/49 pass/run and I thoroughly expect that ratio to remain the same. Bush will get 7-10 touches a game, and Marshall will get a lot of the pass looks, but Forte is still the beast to own in that offense.

I view those other additions as increasing the effectiveness of the non-Forte touches in the offense rather than taking away his touches, and I would be shocked if he has less than 80% of his fantasy points from 2011. Expecting a rock solid 18 PPG from him this year, with upside.

1200/7

500/50/2
Its not about attempts. I wouldn't be surprised if Forte gets more attempts. Its about game-planning the Bears.

Without Martz, the safety goes back in the box v the Bears. You can also mix coverages alot more and blitz more to take away the run because you don't need to defend the deep pass nearly as much. No matter who else is in charge, it is as much about the effect Martz's offense had on defenses as the new offense.

Because they are now a run first team, I think the Bears will be trailing more than not this year - forcing the pass. I don't think Forte will be as much of a factor the passing game as last year. BM will take alot of targets there. And I don't think that Bush is there for giggles or to be just a goal line back. I suspect they will switch lead back position at some point during the season.

Edit to Add: I suspect a switch because of how the Chicago Media handles losing and how the Bears Front office reacts.

 
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The move from Martz to Tice as OC should help but Forte was very heavily involved with the Martz offense. The OL still sucks. They actually didn't throw that much even with Martz-432 att for Cutler in 2011 (15 g) and pace for around 500 last year before getting hurt.

Throw in some new personnel and what do you have? I still see a bell cow of the offense with his customary 1500+ total yards. I do think TD total remains low as with last year, maybe 6 or 7.

As a Bears fan I'd rather let someone else take the short yardage carries behind that OL, save a bit of wear and tear and that's not Forte's forte (see what I did there?) anyway

 
I agree with most people's projections on Forte. I have him at 224 carries/4.7YPA/1053 yds/4 TDs/50 REC/500 yds/ 2 TDs for a total of 1553/6. The real concern is how long this holdout lasts. I have read that he won't miss any games, but if he doesn't report until late August, I'm crossing him off my board. I have a strong feeling that Michael Bush is the better buy this year in round 7.

 
nervous, very nervous...

coming back from injury, coming late to camp? and a very good shared back situation..

really tempering expectations...

1200 yards

400 rec yards

9 tds on the ground

3 in the air...
The injury should be meaningless since he played in the Pro Bowl.
 
'Hairy Snowman said:
Without Martz, the safety goes back in the box v the Bears. You can also mix coverages alot more and blitz more to take away the run because you don't need to defend the deep pass nearly as much. No matter who else is in charge, it is as much about the effect Martz's offense had on defenses as the new offense.Because they are now a run first team, ....
Chicago's pass to run ratio last season was 53% to 47%. Only 6 teams ran the ball more than they did last season under Martz. The Bears added Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey this offseason and you think teams will be less worried about the passing game than when their WRs were Devin Hester and Johnny Knox?
 
'Hairy Snowman said:
Without Martz, the safety goes back in the box v the Bears. You can also mix coverages alot more and blitz more to take away the run because you don't need to defend the deep pass nearly as much. No matter who else is in charge, it is as much about the effect Martz's offense had on defenses as the new offense.Because they are now a run first team, ....
Chicago's pass to run ratio last season was 53% to 47%. Only 6 teams ran the ball more than they did last season under Martz. The Bears added Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey this offseason and you think teams will be less worried about the passing game than when their WRs were Devin Hester and Johnny Knox?
Yes, because the 20 yard Ins and outs are not the staple pass anymore. Maybe 10 yard Ins and Outs. Martz's offense was predicated on going deep. And I am not a fan of Mike Tice as a coach.The Bears are a work in process with a QB with a single winning season under his belt. I'll stand by my call.
 
I don't think the Martz offense was scaring teams into dropping everyone back last season. Forte was still the focal point of the offense and opposing defenses knew it. I don't see how losing Martz is a detriment to Forte - the only legit detriment to Forte's numbers is Michael Bush (assuming Forte does not miss much of training camp) who is a much more capable backup than washed up veterans Marion Barber and Chester Taylor were the last couple of season's.

 
Above average RB In a below average situation.
:goodposting:Forte's a good all-around RB, but I think his usage pattern is going to change this year. Marshall, if he plays 16 games, is going to be in the top handful of players in the NFL in targets, and Bush is the most capable RB2 that Forte has had to deal with.250 carries for 1050 yards, 35 catches for 280, 6 total TDs
 
Above average RB In a below average situation. 12500/8
You haven't seen Forte play...he's improved in his running and was playing great last season aka 4.9 YPC.
is forte really worth a first round pick? how much will bush take away from him? if the guy is only going to score 5 tds how can people take him so high?
I didn't say spend a first round pick on him...I think Bush robs him of GL touches. I'm debating his "above average" label...many have said it, yet he still surprises people.
 
While I agree that Forte may lose goal line opportunities, it wasn't like he was scoring much when he was getting those carries the last couple of years. That was the one area he always seemed to struggle with. But, I don't see the Bears pounding the ball three straight times with Bush whenever they get inside the 5 or 10 yard line. Now that they they have Marshall, Jeffery, and Davis they are going to attack through the air when in the Red Zone and Goal line.

 
Don't really like the recent talk of he and Bush splitting carries.

Interesting that FBG has him as the consensus #6RB right now...don't like it.

 
Don't really like the recent talk of he and Bush splitting carries.Interesting that FBG has him as the consensus #6RB right now...don't like it.
Injuries to Peterson, Charles, Ryan Matthews, and MJD's holdout are what's inflating his ranking. In non-PPR leagues he's unlikely to finish #6. However, he's a relatively safe bet to maintain his 1500+ combined yds and 4-8TDs production. Since his floor is high end RB2 production, he's not a bad choice amongst the landmines out there after the top 3-5 RBs. It's not so egregious when you put it all in perspective...
 

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