Matt Schaub, QB, Houston Texans (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2010 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Matt Schaub, QB, Houston Texans

Player Page Link: Matt Schaub Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I've been a big Schaub supporter these last two seasons. 2008, an injury did him in as far as his season total production but that made him an enormous value play in 2009 and he did not disappoint.

What I would tell you on Schaub this year is that he is still an extremely strong value play. Let's compare Schaub and another Tier 1 QB, Aaron Rodgers, over the last 2 seasons on a per game basis:

Schaub

24.4 Completions

36.3 Attempts

67.19% Completion Rate

294.8 YPG

8.11 YPA

1.7 TD's

0.9 INT's

**Schaub's averages judged over 26.5 games as he only played half of the MIN in 2008

Rodgers

21.6 Completions

33.7 Attempts

64.16% Completion Rate

264.8 YPG

7.87 YPA

1.8 TD's

0.6 INT's

Fantasy Football Calculator has (as of 6/1):

Rodgers at 1.11

Schaub at 4.05

...there's value in them thar hills!

Prediction: 402 Completions 596 Attempts, 4687 Passing Yards, 30 TD's 14 INT's.

 

[Catbird]

I think a lot of the difference is perceived injury risk (both his and Andre's), but you make a good point. With Jacoby poised to increase the Texan options, Schaub offers great value. If healthy, I'll agree with you on just almost a repeat: 4,700 and 28.

 

[baconisgood]

I've been a big Schaub supporter these last two seasons. 2008, an injury did him in as far as his season total production but that made him an enormous value play in 2009 and he did not disappoint.

What I would tell you on Schaub this year is that he is still an extremely strong value play. Let's compare Schaub and another Tier 1 QB, Aaron Rodgers, over the last 2 seasons on a per game basis:

Schaub

24.4 Completions

36.3 Attempts

67.19% Completion Rate

294.8 YPG

8.11 YPA

1.7 TD's

0.9 INT's

**Schaub's averages judged over 26.5 games as he only played half of the MIN in 2008

Rodgers

21.6 Completions

33.7 Attempts

64.16% Completion Rate

264.8 YPG

7.87 YPA

1.8 TD's

0.6 INT's

Fantasy Football Calculator has (as of 6/1):

Rodgers at 1.11

Schaub at 4.05

...there's value in them thar hills!

Prediction: 402 Completions 596 Attempts, 4687 Passing Yards, 30 TD's 14 INT's.

The last 2 years Rodgers has 500/9 rushing compared to Schaubs 100/2. @ 1pt/10yards rushing/1pt/25yards passing and 6 pt rushing tds/4 pt passing TDs that is and extra 1,000/10 that Rodgers put up over Schaub the past 2 years (slightly mitigated by fewer fumbles).

 

[rzrback77]

Matt Schaub had his most successful season to date in 09. In his third year at Houston, he for the first time ever played in all 16 games. His injury history is primarily why he continues to offer value. Consider that in 08, he averaged 277 yards passing per game. Last year, he had 4,770 yards passing, but in 16 games, so his average per game was only 21 yards more than in 08.

I was surprised to see that his effectiveness did not miss a beat for the second half of 09, even though the Texans lost Owen Daniels in week 8. In fact, Schaub threw for over 300 yards in five of the last games. He also had five games with multiple TDs. As you look to 2010, I see the same offensive weapons that were in Houston last year, except that they add Ben Tate. I still see little reason to expect them to run the ball more in 2010. Their RB rush attempts over the last three seasons have totaled 370, 385, and 365. It could possible sneak back up in the 380s, but there is a similar chance that it could decrease further to the 350s.

Matt Schaub has a current ADP of QB 6 and 36 overall, but I could also see him slipping to as low as QB 8 or QB 9 and he will offer value there. It is a fine line for 2010 as I expect there will be several QBs capable of passing for 4,000 yards, but to me Schaub will be the lowest QB of those that are expected to easily surpass the 4,000 yard level.

Matt Schaub 16 gms 380 completions 570 passes 66.7% 4560 yards 8.0 ypa 28 TDs 14 ints with 40 rushes 70 yards 1.8 ypc and 1 TD

 

[baconisgood]

but there is a similar chance that it could decrease further to the 350s.

There have only been 5 teams the past 4 years with <360 rushing attempts. Det, Det, Det, SF (5-11 version), and ARI. Houston's offense is clearly not on the level of the 1st 4- so unless you think that there is a "good" chance that Hou becomes one of the least balanced offenses of all time its much more likely that Houston's rushing attempts go up than go down into the 350s.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I had HOU rushing attempts pegged at these values:

2009: 425

2008: 432

...as for the Rodgers/Schaub comparison, the overall point I was making wasn't necessarily who is more productive just that one is going ADP at the 11th spot in drafts, the other 41st. They are both in the same ballpark as to what you can expect from them production wise. If Rodgers has a slight advantage, in terms of productione, that's negated by the fact that you'll likely have to spend your first or second pick to get him while you can wait around for Schuab. Point of preference.

 

[rzrback77]

but there is a similar chance that it could decrease further to the 350s.

There have only been 5 teams the past 4 years with <360 rushing attempts. Det, Det, Det, SF (5-11 version), and ARI. Houston's offense is clearly not on the level of the 1st 4- so unless you think that there is a "good" chance that Hou becomes one of the least balanced offenses of all time its much more likely that Houston's rushing attempts go up than go down into the 350s.

I mispoke as the numbers that were quoted were NOT rushing attempts, but RB rushing attempts.In fact, Rushing attempts can be broken down as:07 - Total rushes 416 with RBs at 37008 - Total rushes 431 with RBs at 38509 - Total rushes 424 with RBs at 365sorry for the discrepancy and the post above will be edited to state RB rushes

 

[baconisgood]

They are both in the same ballpark as to what you can expect from them production wise

The gap between Rodgers and Schaub the past 2 years is ~ 3.2 ppg (6 pt passing TDs- the gap is larger with 4 pt passing TDs) - which is a similar gap between Schaub and Cutler (7.12) and Eli Manning (9.05) last year.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

They are both in the same ballpark as to what you can expect from them production wise

The gap between Rodgers and Schaub the past 2 years is ~ 3.2 ppg (6 pt passing TDs- the gap is larger with 4 pt passing TDs) - which is a similar gap between Schaub and Cutler (7.12) and Eli Manning (9.05) last year.

While no doubt Rodgers has been more productive on the ground, 5 of his 9 TD's were of the 1 yard variety. If you want to factor in to a differentiation between the two, I wouldn't argue against it. Rodgers seems to have that part of his game overlooked (I did). However, that number IMO would seem to be able to fluctuate one way or the other for either QB as far as the TD's were concerned based on simple playcalling. But you bring up a fair point, perhaps Rodgers has that in his back pocket, Schaub does not.However, when looking strictly at passing numbers and using 25/1 Passing yards, 10/1 Running Yards, 4 Pt/Pass TD system...and looking at per game numbers presented above, I got:Schaub: 16.792Rodgers: 16.592When you factor in their per game rushingSchaub: 0.92Rodgers: 3.31Total...Schuab: 17.712Rodgers: 19.902..the difference between the 2 season production scales of Schuab/Rodgers vs. Manning/Cutler is that the latter group has a credibility gap in one of their seasons. Which QB are they, the 2008 version or the 2009 version?

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

Schaub reminds me of what Trent Green used to be. For FF that's real good. I would be surprised if he ranks lower than 5th this season.

 

[karmarooster]

They are both in the same ballpark as to what you can expect from them production wise

The gap between Rodgers and Schaub the past 2 years is ~ 3.2 ppg (6 pt passing TDs- the gap is larger with 4 pt passing TDs) - which is a similar gap between Schaub and Cutler (7.12) and Eli Manning (9.05) last year.

Just so we have it all out for consideration, here's a look at some of the top QBs from my league last year (4pts/TD, 20yards/pt)Rodgers - 24.4

Brees - 21.5

Schaub - 21.2

Manning -21.0

With Schaub, you've got a guaranteed top 5 QB when he plays.

Does anyone know more about the new OC in Houston? Anyone care to speculate how it will affect the offense?

 

[coolnerd]

They are both in the same ballpark as to what you can expect from them production wise

The gap between Rodgers and Schaub the past 2 years is ~ 3.2 ppg (6 pt passing TDs- the gap is larger with 4 pt passing TDs) - which is a similar gap between Schaub and Cutler (7.12) and Eli Manning (9.05) last year.

Just so we have it all out for consideration, here's a look at some of the top QBs from my league last year (4pts/TD, 20yards/pt)Rodgers - 24.4

Brees - 21.5

Schaub - 21.2

Manning -21.0

With Schaub, you've got a guaranteed top 5 QB when he plays.

Does anyone know more about the new OC in Houston? Anyone care to speculate how it will affect the offense?

Dennison is straight out of the Denver system and both played and coached with Kubiak. There will be little if any difference in the style and plays ran. They, of course, want to run more (like every team in the off season), but really Kubiak's handprints are all over the offense I expect to look 90-95 percent the same.

 

[fightingillini]

As long as Schaub can stay upright, he's a solid option at QB. A lot will depend on Owen Daniels' health, but I see no reason to believe that Schaub won't have another solid year.

4100 yds passing, 26 TD, 14 Int

75 yds rushing, 1 TD

 

[bweiser]

I've been a big Schaub supporter these last two seasons. 2008, an injury did him in as far as his season total production but that made him an enormous value play in 2009 and he did not disappoint.

What I would tell you on Schaub this year is that he is still an extremely strong value play. Let's compare Schaub and another Tier 1 QB, Aaron Rodgers, over the last 2 seasons on a per game basis:

Schaub

24.4 Completions

36.3 Attempts

67.19% Completion Rate

294.8 YPG

8.11 YPA

1.7 TD's

0.9 INT's

**Schaub's averages judged over 26.5 games as he only played half of the MIN in 2008

Rodgers

21.6 Completions

33.7 Attempts

64.16% Completion Rate

264.8 YPG

7.87 YPA

1.8 TD's

0.6 INT's

Fantasy Football Calculator has (as of 6/1):

Rodgers at 1.11

Schaub at 4.05

...there's value in them thar hills!

Prediction: 402 Completions 596 Attempts, 4687 Passing Yards, 30 TD's 14 INT's.

its a small point, but i think schaub's numbers should be based on 27 games, not 26.5. he still started the game and you still started him in your fantasy lineup. you didn't get to switch to sage rosenfelds at halftime. (i wish i had. he had a decent second half).

 

[Creed Bratton]

I've been a big Schaub supporter these last two seasons. 2008, an injury did him in as far as his season total production but that made him an enormous value play in 2009 and he did not disappoint.

What I would tell you on Schaub this year is that he is still an extremely strong value play. Let's compare Schaub and another Tier 1 QB, Aaron Rodgers, over the last 2 seasons on a per game basis:

Schaub

24.4 Completions

36.3 Attempts

67.19% Completion Rate

294.8 YPG

8.11 YPA

1.7 TD's

0.9 INT's

**Schaub's averages judged over 26.5 games as he only played half of the MIN in 2008

Rodgers

21.6 Completions

33.7 Attempts

64.16% Completion Rate

264.8 YPG

7.87 YPA

1.8 TD's

0.6 INT's

Fantasy Football Calculator has (as of 6/1):

Rodgers at 1.11

Schaub at 4.05

...there's value in them thar hills!

Prediction: 402 Completions 596 Attempts, 4687 Passing Yards, 30 TD's 14 INT's.

its a small point, but i think schaub's numbers should be based on 27 games, not 26.5. he still started the game and you still started him in your fantasy lineup. you didn't get to switch to sage rosenfelds at halftime. (i wish i had. he had a decent second half).

I think you would have a valid point if you wanted to assess how effective schaub was for his owners in the past. The projection he's putting up is assuming he stays healthy so i think fudging the numbers slightly to compensate for injury might give you a slightly more accurate picture of how productive he can be going forward. It's why you look at per game numbers instead of season totals in the first place.

 

[AtomicDogg97]

Whyis Matt Schaub not considered a top tier quarterback? He led the league in passing yards last year and can really only improve.

Am I wrong for targeting him in the middle of the third round?

 

[jsharlan]

No not really, he shouldnt be going any later than a early to mid 4th round pick imo. I guess people are still concerned about injury.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

I happen to think he is such a safe pick and underrated. You will get the top end production at the QB position and can get him after all the sexy QB's are taken as well as a plethora of RB's and WR's.

With a team that will struggle to run and has no trouble throwing the ball, be ready for much of the same as last year. The guy is the goods. He also plays in a controlled weather environment pretty much all the time, he has no changes in his pass catchers from a year ago (including getting Daniels back who is extremely solid).

Schuab will put up superstar stats and is ridiculously good and accurate and does not get the credit he so very well deserves.

 

[fantasizing]

With a presumeably healthy O. Daniels returning this year, Schaub's stats could soar this year.

Even a modest improvement in the running game can only open things up even more for the passing game.

If someone on the street came up to me and bet me $1000 that he will get 4,500 yards passing and 35 TD's this year, I wouldn't take the bet.

 

[Keith1]

Whyis Matt Schaub not considered a top tier quarterback? He led the league in passing yards last year and can really only improve.Am I wrong for targeting him in the middle of the third round?

in my 12 team, 6 point passing TD redraft league, I have the 7th pick. There is no doubt in my mind that he'll be gone by the time I pick in the 3rd round (at pick # 31). If I want him, it will have to be a reach in the 2nd round (at pick # 18). Would love to grab Andre Johnson in the 1st and then pair him with Matty.

 

[hook014]

I happen to think he is such a safe pick and underrated. You will get the top end production at the QB position and can get him after all the sexy QB's are taken as well as a plethora of RB's and WR's. With a team that will struggle to run and has no trouble throwing the ball, be ready for much of the same as last year. The guy is the goods. He also plays in a controlled weather environment pretty much all the time, he has no changes in his pass catchers from a year ago (including getting Daniels back who is extremely solid). Schuab will put up superstar stats and is ridiculously good and accurate and does not get the credit he so very well deserves.

I completely agree and hoped to get him in the 4th of my main league after having him lead my team to the big money last year. Unfortunately, so did my main nemesis who took him in the 3rd. That man is a villain and unfit for society.He also left himself a little thin at WR as a result. Kudos sir!Seriously though, if you're lucky enough that he's still there when 5 QBs are off the board you really need to pencil him in.