Maurice Jones-Drew (1 Viewer)

[Gr00vus]

One of the big questionmarks of the early draft, I'm having a hard time nailing down projections for this guy that I'm happy with. I figure he gets a few more carries (sorry Fred) a few more receptions, but his ypc comes down to around 5. He won't get as many TDs as last year, but he'll be the goal line back all season, so I figure him for around 10 TDs.

For now I'm going with

901 to 1000 yards rushing

400 to 500 yards receiving

9 to 11 TDs

45 receptions

(200 carries at about 4.7 ypc)

Given that I feel comfy about taking him in round 2 as my RB2 - not as comfy if he's my RB1 for some reason.

Now - Projectamundo!

 

[The Man with the Plan]

I voted for all the highest numbers. Guys don't do what MJD did and go away. I don't know how well he'll play but he's a good player and good players get theirs. I know you're not supposed to predict injury but c'mon this is Fred Taylor we're talking about here. 31 year-old Fred Taylor. If there's anybody staring down the running back grim reaper it'd be this guy. If MJD becomes the starter then the sky's the limit with him.

I have a feeling a lot of people are gonna feel bad passing up MJD knowing that they could have had him but they passed him because he was "too great" last season.

 

[switz]

I voted for all the highest numbers. Guys don't do what MJD did and go away.

Oh, but they do....

 

[red]

but he'll be the goal line back all season

i didn't know this for sure...is this true?

 

[John Mamula]

One of the big questionmarks of the early draft, I'm having a hard time nailing down projections for this guy that I'm happy with. I figure he gets a few more carries (sorry Fred) a few more receptions, but his ypc comes down to around 5. He won't get as many TDs as last year, but he'll be the goal line back all season, so I figure him for around 10 TDs.For now I'm going with 901 to 1000 yards rushing400 to 500 yards receiving9 to 11 TDs45 receptions(200 carries at about 4.7 ypc)Given that I feel comfy about taking him in round 2 as my RB2 - not as comfy if he's my RB1 for some reason.Now - Projectamundo!

this is what i am thinking. if he is there in the 2nd round i take him every time.

 

[FantasyTrader]

I voted for all the highest numbers. Guys don't do what MJD did and go away.

Oh, but they do....

Rarely (in comparison to rookies doing what he did and DON'T go away).

 

[TheFanatic]

but he'll be the goal line back all season

i didn't know this for sure...is this true?

He was last year. Fred generally pulls himself at the goal line. He knows that it will extend his career if he doesn't take that pounding at the GL at his age....

 

[solwoldjr]

 

[Gr00vus]

but he'll be the goal line back all season

i didn't know this for sure...is this true?

He was last year. Fred generally pulls himself at the goal line. He knows that it will extend his career if he doesn't take that pounding at the GL at his age....

I also assume Jones-Drew will get the goal line carries because he's done better at converting so far than anyone else on their roster. Statistically a small sample size for him (6/10) but watching him he looks like he does it better as well.

 

[Righetti]

Note to Jason Wood

this would be an interesting method for doing the message board projections next year for all the players, it's pretty simple and it will give an idea what the consensus for each player is.

 

[Gr00vus]

For those projecting 1101 plus yards, what number of carries and what yards per carry projections are you using?

I'd have added another section about what round people would take him in, but I ran out of sections. Maybe another poll is in order for that.

 

[Blackjacks]

but he'll be the goal line back all season

i didn't know this for sure...is this true?

He was last year. Fred generally pulls himself at the goal line. He knows that it will extend his career if he doesn't take that pounding at the GL at his age....

MJD only had 7 rushing td's inside the 10 last year. Guess what Reggie Bush had 6 rushing td's inside the 10 also. I he considered a goal line back?He also added 1 more in the playoffs.So is 7 a good # or something

 

[SigEp316]

does Greg Jones figure into any of this?

I'm staying away from MJD this year....especially in the 2nd round

 

[The Kansas Comet]

200 carries 980 yards 9 rush td's 58 catches 520 rec yards 2 rec td's

But I can't get rid of this nagging feeling that those numbers are a little high. Perhaps the # of touches and yards is too much, considering Taylor is still there (and put up 5.0 ypc last season - not too shabby), and the impact MJD's role on special teams might have on his use as a running back. I think he's pretty good for 8-12 touchdowns though - Fred isn't a goal line hound, and I don't think Jones will be a factor there either. Drew is causing me a lot of headaches too, because I could see him being huge should Taylor miss significant time, but I could also see Drew's touches stay the same and him not hit a few of those home runs he had last season (and being a UCLA season ticket holder, I am a big time MJD fan and would love to have him on my team). I think I'll probably miss out on him though, as I can't see myself pulling the trigger in Round 2 or early Round 3 right now.

 

[amphibianbri]

I like the 900-1000 range for yards rushing as I see MJD getting around 200 rushes as mentioned above. You want the ball in his hands, so 40-50 catches won't be out of line, but I think the TD's drop to around 8. Great speed to break big ones, but I can even see the Jags going to the air inside the 10 with all of the huge WR's they have. Nice value as a RB#2, but don't count me in to all of those thinking the $5 million FRed Taylor, who averaged 5.0 ypc last year himself going away. Taylor will probably end up being the better value in the end as those drafting him won't expect double digit TD's. I'm not saying Taylor will be better than MJD, just sayinf he will present better value, especially with that easy schedule.

 

[Tau837]

Positives:

1. He performed great last year, so we know he can do it.

2. He could improve in some ways in his second year.

Negatives:

1. His per touch numbers were outrageously good. I think regression from them is a given.

2. He averaged 11.3 fppg before Taylor got hurt last year and 23 fppg while Taylor was hurt. But Taylor is healthy and, as far as we know, will stay healthy. And Taylor remains the starter.

3. Greg Jones is back. Is he a threat to get 150 touches? No, I don't think so... but I do think he is a threat to get more than the 32 carries and 6 catches JAX RBs other than Taylor & MJD got last year.

4. As far as I know, he is expected to return kicks and possibly punts. IMO, given other good RBs, this will cause the coaching staff to hold down his touches somewhat on offense.

5. Due to points 2-4 above, it is hard to see MJD's touches going up significantly. He had 212 last season, and IMO will see no more than 250 this year. To put this number in perspective, consider that the top 10 RBs last season other than MJD averaged 378 touches.

 

[Cool in the pocket]

Positives:1. He performed great last year, so we know he can do it.2. He could improve in some ways in his second year.Negatives:1. His per touch numbers were outrageously good. I think regression from them is a given.2. He averaged 11.3 fppg before Taylor got hurt last year and 23 fppg while Taylor was hurt. But Taylor is healthy and, as far as we know, will stay healthy. And Taylor remains the starter.3. Greg Jones is back. Is he a threat to get 150 touches? No, I don't think so... but I do think he is a threat to get more than the 32 carries and 6 catches JAX RBs other than Taylor & MJD got last year.4. As far as I know, he is expected to return kicks and possibly punts. IMO, given other good RBs, this will cause the coaching staff to hold down his touches somewhat on offense.5. Due to points 2-4 above, it is hard to see MJD's touches going up significantly. He had 212 last season, and IMO will see no more than 250 this year. To put this number in perspective, consider that the top 10 RBs last season other than MJD averaged 378 touches.

There were alot of favourable factors for the Jax running game last year:1. Inconsistent (mediocre??) QB play which made throwing harder on top of which the #1 QB was hurt. Some will contend that D's will then stack the box to stop what they have left and force the weaker option to beat you, but Jax had a 2 pronged attack with Taylor and MJD to keep D's off balance.2. Taylor got hurt and MJD went crazy. Jones was gone for the whole year further reducing other touches.3. Jax ran the ball 513 times last year (tied for third most in the league), so I'm not sure there is much room to create even more rushing opps.Points 1 and 3 from "just win baby" are hard to defend unless you see Jax phasing Taylor out of the picture which would suggest a new contract extension might not have been the best strategy, Jax turning into Pittsburgh and running 550 or more times or the rest of the Jax RB's getting negligible touches.

 

[Tau837]

Oh yeah, forgot to mention that the starting center for JAX will miss at least 3 games and then will have to work back into the lineup. That doesn't help MJD.

 

[Tau837]

Top 12 back guaranteed. A lot of turds floating around the Shark Pool hating on MJD...lotta turds.

 

[gheemony]

Top 12 back guaranteed. A lot of turds floating around the Shark Pool hating on MJD...lotta turds.

While I like MJD this year too, this post was pretty useless. No rationale for your assertion. Insulting everyone that disagrees. Why bother stopping to piss in the Shark Pool?

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

Top 12 back guaranteed. A lot of turds floating around the Shark Pool hating on MJD...lotta turds.

While I like MJD this year too, this post was pretty useless. No rationale for your assertion. Insulting everyone that disagrees. Why bother stopping to piss in the Shark Pool?

 

[Jeff Haseley]

Jones-Drew averaged 5.67 yards per rush last year. Over the last 20 years, the only RBs to average 5.5 YPR with at least 125 carries are the following...

Napoleon Kaufman, 5.83 YPR - the following year he had 1294 yards, 6 TD 4.8 YPR

Barry Sanders, 5.69 YPR - the following year he had 1500 yards, 11 TD, 4.8 YPR

Maurice Jones-Drew 5.67 YPR - ????

James Brooks 5.61 YPR - the following year he had 1004 yards, 5 TD, 5.1 YPR

Bo Jackson 5.58 YPR - the following year he had 698 yards, 5 TD, 5.6 YPR (in only 10 games) the year he was injured. A 16 gm projection yields 1116 yards, 8 TD

Clinton Portis 5.52 YPR - the following year he had 1315 yards, 5 TD, 3.8 YPR

Portis is the only other other rookie other than Jones-Drew to accomplish 5.5+ YPR with at least 125 carries in the last 20 years.

The average yards rushing gained in the following year by this group of players is 1245 rushing yards (this is counting Bo Jackson's projected totals) . Will this play out again this year with Jones-Drew? I think Fred Taylor is going to determine that.

 

[Kleck.]

Note to Jason Woodthis would be an interesting method for doing the message board projections next year for all the players, it's pretty simple and it will give an idea what the consensus for each player is.

 

[dapunisher]

Jones-Drew averaged 5.67 yards per rush last year. Over the last 20 years, the only RBs to average 5.5 YPR with at least 125 carries are the following...Napoleon Kaufman, 5.83 YPR - the following year he had 1294 yards, 6 TD 4.8 YPRBarry Sanders, 5.69 YPR - the following year he had 1500 yards, 11 TD, 4.8 YPRMaurice Jones-Drew 5.67 YPR - ????James Brooks 5.61 YPR - the following year he had 1004 yards, 5 TD, 5.1 YPRBo Jackson 5.58 YPR - the following year he had 698 yards, 5 TD, 5.6 YPR (in only 10 games) the year he was injured. A 16 gm projection yields 1116 yards, 8 TDClinton Portis 5.52 YPR - the following year he had 1315 yards, 5 TD, 3.8 YPRPortis is the only other other rookie other than Jones-Drew to accomplish 5.5+ YPR with at least 125 carries in the last 20 years. The average yards rushing gained in the following year by this group of players is 1245 rushing yards (this is counting Bo Jackson's projected totals) . Will this play out again this year with Jones-Drew? I think Fred Taylor is going to determine that.

Nice reminder of how Bo Jackson redefinied the meaning of absolute freak stud.

 

[Gr00vus]

Jax turning into Pittsburgh and running 550 or more times

Given the distribution of talent on their offense (read - their receivers are terrible, maybe Marcedes Lewis can help out, but still ), this, while not a lock, is also not out of the realm of real possibility. It's also the way Del Rio has liked to play football so far in his coaching career. If their defense is tough again this year, I would expect the running game to be more prevalent in the offensive scheme.

 

[CA_7]

Jones-Drew averaged 5.67 yards per rush last year. Over the last 20 years, the only RBs to average 5.5 YPR with at least 125 carries are the following...Napoleon Kaufman, 5.83 YPR - the following year he had 1294 yards, 6 TD 4.8 YPRBarry Sanders, 5.69 YPR - the following year he had 1500 yards, 11 TD, 4.8 YPRMaurice Jones-Drew 5.67 YPR - ????James Brooks 5.61 YPR - the following year he had 1004 yards, 5 TD, 5.1 YPRBo Jackson 5.58 YPR - the following year he had 698 yards, 5 TD, 5.6 YPR (in only 10 games) the year he was injured. A 16 gm projection yields 1116 yards, 8 TDClinton Portis 5.52 YPR - the following year he had 1315 yards, 5 TD, 3.8 YPRPortis is the only other other rookie other than Jones-Drew to accomplish 5.5+ YPR with at least 125 carries in the last 20 years. The average yards rushing gained in the following year by this group of players is 1245 rushing yards (this is counting Bo Jackson's projected totals) . Will this play out again this year with Jones-Drew? I think Fred Taylor is going to determine that.

And his YPC dropped below 5 when he was the full time starter in place of Fred....that is why the JAX coaching staff wants to limit his carries so he is more effective

 

[Cool in the pocket]

Jax turning into Pittsburgh and running 550 or more times

Given the distribution of talent on their offense (read - their receivers are terrible, maybe Marcedes Lewis can help out, but still ), this, while not a lock, is also not out of the realm of real possibility. It's also the way Del Rio has liked to play football so far in his coaching career. If their defense is tough again this year, I would expect the running game to be more prevalent in the offensive scheme.

Agreed, but that would only be one of 3 or 4 things that would need to happen for MJD to exceed last year's FF totals IMHO. Maybe Leftwich doesn't get hurt or Taylor, maybe the D softens up, maybe the WR's (or a couple of them) turn the corner and become serviceable. Lots of "if's"...

 

[Tau837]

Jax turning into Pittsburgh and running 550 or more times

Given the distribution of talent on their offense (read - their receivers are terrible, maybe Marcedes Lewis can help out, but still ), this, while not a lock, is also not out of the realm of real possibility. It's also the way Del Rio has liked to play football so far in his coaching career. If their defense is tough again this year, I would expect the running game to be more prevalent in the offensive scheme.

JAX was 6th in RB carries last season... not a lot of room for growth there.

 

[3nOut]

but he'll be the goal line back all season

i didn't know this for sure...is this true?

He was last year. Fred generally pulls himself at the goal line. He knows that it will extend his career if he doesn't take that pounding at the GL at his age....

Can you find a link to where this is stated? I looked and can't find anything. The reason he had the GL carries last year was because Greg Jones got injured in pre-season. I would think he would be the GL back again this year if he's healthy. At best, I think they split and both their values drop.

 

[GDogg]

but he'll be the goal line back all season

i didn't know this for sure...is this true?

He was last year. Fred generally pulls himself at the goal line. He knows that it will extend his career if he doesn't take that pounding at the GL at his age....

Can you find a link to where this is stated? I looked and can't find anything. The reason he had the GL carries last year was because Greg Jones got injured in pre-season. I would think he would be the GL back again this year if he's healthy. At best, I think they split and both their values drop.

In two seasons actually playing for the Jaguars, Greg Jones had 11 GL carries. He converted on 4 of them. That's a conversion rate of 36.4%. This ranks him #49 among RB's with a minimum of 10 GL carries from 2002-06.In his only season with the Jaguars, Maurice Drew had 10 GL carries. He converted 6 of them. That's a conversion rate of 60%. This ranks him tied for #2 with Priest Holmes among all RB's with a minimum of 10 GL carries from 2002-06.

I'm not real worried about Greg Jones and GL carries, particularly when Jones has averaged only 5.5 GL carries per season when the better GL back, Drew, was not even on the team.

Goal Line Data

 

[Gr00vus]

Jax turning into Pittsburgh and running 550 or more times

Given the distribution of talent on their offense (read - their receivers are terrible, maybe Marcedes Lewis can help out, but still ), this, while not a lock, is also not out of the realm of real possibility. It's also the way Del Rio has liked to play football so far in his coaching career. If their defense is tough again this year, I would expect the running game to be more prevalent in the offensive scheme.

JAX was 6th in RB carries last season... not a lot of room for growth there.

Why not? Besides I'm basing my projections on 200 carries for Jones-Drew, which boils down to two more carries a game on average. I think they can and will find a way to get Jones-Drew 2 more touches a game on average.

 

[Cool in the pocket]

Jax turning into Pittsburgh and running 550 or more times

Given the distribution of talent on their offense (read - their receivers are terrible, maybe Marcedes Lewis can help out, but still ), this, while not a lock, is also not out of the realm of real possibility. It's also the way Del Rio has liked to play football so far in his coaching career. If their defense is tough again this year, I would expect the running game to be more prevalent in the offensive scheme.

JAX was 6th in RB carries last season... not a lot of room for growth there.

Why not? Besides I'm basing my projections on 200 carries for Jones-Drew, which boils down to two more carries a game on average. I think they can and will find a way to get Jones-Drew 2 more touches a game on average.

How many carries are you projecting for Taylor? Rest of the Jags?

 

[Gr00vus]

Agreed, but that would only be one of 3 or 4 things that would need to happen for MJD to exceed last year's FF totals IMHO.

Who said anything about exceeding? My projections are a regression actually, and even then he's a solid #2 back.

Maybe Leftwich doesn't get hurt

I'd think it'd be better for Jones-Drew if Lefty managed to not get hurt actually, it gives the defense more to worry about. However until Lefty makes it through a season without missing time as a starter it's not such a big "if" that he will.

or Taylor,

I think Jones-Drew gets his regardless of Taylor's injury status. Projections only go up from here if Taylor misses time.

maybe the D softens up, maybe the WR's (or a couple of them) turn the corner and become serviceable.

These both seem unlikely to me. Besides Jones-Drew may be the best receiving target Jax has, so more passing may benefit him anyway.I'm not seeing the downside here.

 

[Gr00vus]

How many carries are you projecting for Taylor? Rest of the Jags?

For Taylor, somewhere between 200 and 250, less if he gets injured.Give the rest of the Jags 30 or 40 more, again barring injury to one of the main backs.

 

[Tau837]

How many carries are you projecting for Taylor? Rest of the Jags?

For Taylor, somewhere between 200 and 250, less if he gets injured.Give the rest of the Jags 30 or 40 more, again barring injury to one of the main backs.

You have said:Taylor 200 to 250MJD 200Other Jags 30 or 40So you are projecting a range of 430 to 490. Last year, the Jags had 429, which was 6th in the league. The highest total was Chicago, with 472. So I really don't see 490 as a viable possibility.In their first 11 games last year, before Taylor was hurt, Taylor averaged 17.6 carries per game and MJD averaged 8.2 carries per game. Giving them a 50/50 split is quite a significant change. I just don't see it. Furthermore, they did not have Jones last year. He had 151 carries in 14 games in 2005. I'm not saying he'll approach that again, but he could easily on his own surpass the total of 32 carries by Jags RBs other than Taylor and MJD last season... and others will still likely have a small number of carries on top of all that.

 

[streamkeeper]

My league score 1 point for 15 return yards. MJD is gold.

He had 800+ return yards last year and 1 TD.

For me this is a big adjustment.

I thought most leagues scored return yards?

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

If you were Del Rio would you be trying to get the ball in MJD's hands more, or less?

 

[Parmcat]

A lot of people seem to be scared of Greg Jones Ali like return to the field...

What has Greg Jones ever done?

MJD converted a lot better last year then Jones has done any year in his career?

He is nothing but a fullback.

 

[PantherPower]

I hope MJD improves from last year. I just traded Ronnie Brown and L.Booker for MJD and Craig Davis.

 

[vandyt]

If you were Del Rio would you be trying to get the ball in MJD's hands more, or less?

This is the correct answer.

 

[Tau837]

If you were Del Rio would you be trying to get the ball in MJD's hands more, or less?

This is the correct answer.

Anyone who thinks that should be able to answer how. That is, where the touches will come from.

 

[vichawkfan]

A lot of people seem to be scared of Greg Jones Ali like return to the field...What has Greg Jones ever done?MJD converted a lot better last year then Jones has done any year in his career?He is nothing but a fullback.

I love how the pundits keep bringing GJones into the mix. The 3 headed RBBC goal line vulture etc. Excuse me, but GJ was considerd a GL back because Fred is probably the worst GL back in history. Love Freddie, but he stinks at the goal line - it's a fact.

 

[Sleeper 43]

If you were Del Rio would you be trying to get the ball in MJD's hands more, or less?

He played BETTER than Fred Taylor did last year. He is only going to get better. Why would one assume his opportunities/production would decrease?At a minimum I would expect him to reach last years numbers off of more rushes and catches.

 

[Gr00vus]

So you are projecting a range of 430 to 490. Last year, the Jags had 429, which was 6th in the league. The highest total was Chicago, with 472. So I really don't see 490 as a viable possibility.In their first 11 games last year, before Taylor was hurt, Taylor averaged 17.6 carries per game and MJD averaged 8.2 carries per game. Giving them a 50/50 split is quite a significant change. I just don't see it. Furthermore, they did not have Jones last year. He had 151 carries in 14 games in 2005. I'm not saying he'll approach that again, but he could easily on his own surpass the total of 32 carries by Jags RBs other than Taylor and MJD last season... and others will still likely have a small number of carries on top of all that.

So I've projected 430 to 490 and they actually had 429 last year, and the Bears led the league with 472. Doesn't sound like I'm far off - if I'm off at all, I'd expect the Jags to be right up there in league leaders for carries again.I think given what Drew's shown he definitely should get at least 50% of the carries - it's a significant change that just plain makes sense and I DO see it. Greg Jones has no reason to carry the ball 151 times this year unless someone gets hurt. I'm counting him out as far as significant touches - they've tried it and he didn't do anything with it. It's a waste of a play giving him the ball when you've got Jones-Drew and Taylor. We disagree, simple as that. Guess we'll see who's right at the end of the season.

 

[Tau837]

So you are projecting a range of 430 to 490. Last year, the Jags had 429, which was 6th in the league. The highest total was Chicago, with 472. So I really don't see 490 as a viable possibility.In their first 11 games last year, before Taylor was hurt, Taylor averaged 17.6 carries per game and MJD averaged 8.2 carries per game. Giving them a 50/50 split is quite a significant change. I just don't see it. Furthermore, they did not have Jones last year. He had 151 carries in 14 games in 2005. I'm not saying he'll approach that again, but he could easily on his own surpass the total of 32 carries by Jags RBs other than Taylor and MJD last season... and others will still likely have a small number of carries on top of all that.

So I've projected 430 to 490 and they actually had 429 last year, and the Bears led the league with 472. Doesn't sound like I'm far off - if I'm off at all, I'd expect the Jags to be right up there in league leaders for carries again.I think given what Drew's shown he definitely should get at least 50% of the carries - it's a significant change that just plain makes sense and I DO see it. Greg Jones has no reason to carry the ball 151 times this year unless someone gets hurt. I'm counting him out as far as significant touches - they've tried it and he didn't do anything with it. It's a waste of a play giving him the ball when you've got Jones-Drew and Taylor. We disagree, simple as that. Guess we'll see who's right at the end of the season.

I'm fine with agreeing to disagree, but, just to be clear, I didn't suggest that Greg Jones will carry the ball close to 151 times. I said I think he could easily get more than 32 carries, which is how many all JAX RBs other than Taylor and MJD had last season. And I then pointed out that I expect other RBs besides Taylor, MJD, and Jones to get a small number of carries as well. I see it breaking down more like this:210 Taylor180 MJD35 Jones10 Others---435 Total

 

[Gr00vus]

Greg Jones I said I think he could easily get more than 32 carries

I don't think so. Maybe half that. And I think they'll have more carries as a team. Plenty of room for Jones-Drew to get 2 more touches per game on average.