May Have To Reach For A QB This Year (1 Viewer)

[RalphMouth]

Seriously...

after Rogers, Brady & Brees who really excites you as your starter?

Newton and Stafford are being drafted late 1st to mid 2nd rounds

Vick- can never stay healthy

Romo- his offense is one M.A.S.H. unit

Ryan- If you want him you will need to spend a 4th rounder (I could see him go in the 3rd round in some leagues)

Rivers- no running game & his WRs scare me

Eli Manning- due to uncertainty to Romo,Vick and Rivers I bet he goes earlier than you think

Peyton Manning- injury risk... how close is he really to being a QB you can trust ?

Rothlesberger- his #1 WR is holding out, his O-line is patched up with rookies

Can RG III, Luck, Cutler or Schaub somebody you can count on every week?

I really think you see people 'reaching' for their QB this season. Can you stomach what may happen if you don't as well ?

 

[prgromek]

the shark move this year is to take Brady in the 1st

 

[RalphMouth]

the shark move this year is to take Brady in the 1st

maybe if you have the 6th - 12th overall pick...

 

[Deamon]

the shark move this year is to take Brady in the 1st

not many shark moves at qb this year. It WAS matt ryan until the bus filled up and he seemed to go from Undervalued to overvalued overnight. I like Brady at 1.08-1.10 too, other then that you might be able to get vick at good value (he's likely going to slide down FAST after tonight). Eli, RG3, Luck, A.Smith, and Freeman at their current ADP's also are good value IMO. Wouldn't be bad waiting on a qb if you could grab TWO of those guys and play the hot hand/matchups.

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

I'll take two of

Roethlisberger, Ben

Freeman, Josh

Palmer, Carson

Schaub, Matt

Cutler, Jay

or Brady or Brees if I have a late first.

If an early first I will target

Manning, Eli

Ryan, Matt

Rivers, Philip

Romo, Tony

Manning, Peyton

or Rodgers if in the 5 spot

 

[RedBird33]

I'll take two of Roethlisberger, BenFreeman, JoshPalmer, CarsonSchaub, MattCutler, Jayor Brady or Brees if I have a late first.If an early first I will target Manning, EliRyan, MattRivers, PhilipRomo, TonyManning, Peytonor Rodgers if in the 5 spot

I'm think I agree with this but might put Luck in the 1st group you mentioned and probably drop Palmer based on what I've seen in the pre-season so far.

 

[moleculo]

to be honest, I'm cool with the top 14 or so QB's in the league. I'm not sure a strong case can be made that QB6 is all that much better than QB12. By my projections, that's Vick (pre-today's injury) and Peyton Manning, with an overall difference of 2 points per game.

I've gotta think that 2 PPG is within margin of error, no?

so yeah, you've got your big 5, but after that, there's a whole stack of QB's all about the same. If that's the case and you don't want to spend a top 3 round pick, what's the point of reaching for one?

 

[kinghill]

Seriously...after Rogers, Brady & Brees who really excites you as your starter?Newton and Stafford are being drafted late 1st to mid 2nd roundsVick- can never stay healthyRomo- his offense is one M.A.S.H. unitRyan- If you want him you will need to spend a 4th rounder (I could see him go in the 3rd round in some leagues)Rivers- no running game & his WRs scare meEli Manning- due to uncertainty to Romo,Vick and Rivers I bet he goes earlier than you thinkPeyton Manning- injury risk... how close is he really to being a QB you can trust ?Rothlesberger- his #1 WR is holding out, his O-line is patched up with rookiesCan RG III, Luck, Cutler or Schaub somebody you can count on every week?I really think you see people 'reaching' for their QB this season. Can you stomach what may happen if you don't as well ?

I'm nervous already! You are correct people are DEFINITELY going to reach for QB this year. Sharks have to use it to their advantage and BULK up on RB/WR/TE... then take 2-3 QB's late-late hoping to nail that one who takes off and gives you a Top 10 performance, enough to get to the playoffs.I figure that is my only option anyway, in my main 10-man league. I'm in #9 spot. There is a decent chance Rodgers/Brady/Brees will be gone before that, and Newton and Stafford are keepers. But what if Brees is still available at #9?

 

[bagger]

I really think you see people 'reaching' for their QB this season. Can you stomach what may happen if you don't as well ?

yes. took the 11th qb off the board at 6.10 with RG3, who should outproduce that. grabbed Fitzpatrick late who may put up QB1 #s as well. with QBs like Flynn, Cassell, Tannehill and others still out there you are better off grabbing RB, WR, and TE value while others like you panic and reach.

 

[bagger]

to be honest, I'm cool with the top 14 or so QB's in the league. I'm not sure a strong case can be made that QB6 is all that much better than QB12. By my projections, that's Vick (pre-today's injury) and Peyton Manning, with an overall difference of 2 points per game. I've gotta think that 2 PPG is within margin of error, no?so yeah, you've got your big 5, but after that, there's a whole stack of QB's all about the same. If that's the case and you don't want to spend a top 3 round pick, what's the point of reaching for one?

^

 

[Deamon]

I'll take two of Roethlisberger, BenFreeman, JoshPalmer, CarsonSchaub, MattCutler, Jayor Brady or Brees if I have a late first.If an early first I will target Manning, EliRyan, MattRivers, PhilipRomo, TonyManning, Peytonor Rodgers if in the 5 spot

I'd almost drop romo out of that. Oline looks bad, and witten/austin/dez may ALL miss some time. Scary situation.

 

[Mozeta]

Depending on your league scoring and assuming 6pts per TD and typical yardage scoring, I agree. I think taking Rodgers and Brady right after the big 3 RB's (Foster, Rice, McCoy) are gone is a good move. I'm not as warm on Brees this year due to all the other distractions going on in New Orleans in the off season, but I would still take him somewhere early in the 2nd. It seems so many other players being drafted in the 1st or 2nd round have too many questions. Why mess around with it when you can almost guarantee yourself solid production with an average of 5-10 more points per game than most anyone else in your league at the position. I've done the QBBC draft by waiting on Dodd's "good value" picks and it has never worked out for me. You end up pulling your hair out trying to decide who to start and seldom get it right, not to mention wasting too many valuable roster spots with QB's you are trying to plug and play from week to week. There are too many injuries to mess around with this nonsense and I always have better luck doing a RBBC or WRBC because there are a tons of them and several always emerge every year you can get off of waivers if you are sharp. QB is the one position you can't really do this (with the exception of Vick a few years ago). It's not worth it, Take Rodgers, Brady, or Brees, then concentrate on stacking your team with a bunch of WR's and RB the rest of draft. Pick up Palmer, Cutler, or Flacco with a very late round pick if you want a back up. Yout can probably even drop them from week to week if you need the space and pick them back up later if you want.

The one exception to this I would make is if you can get Peyton Manning in/after the 5th round. I think he will far out perform his ADP and will be a top 5 QB this year. I'm also not going to be the guy suckered into taking Matt Ryan in the 4th round. He wasn't all that great last year and nothing much has really changed for me to expect anything different. I'm not sure why everyone is pumping him up so much recently, but I love the fact that someone in my league will overpay for his mediocrity this year.

 

[kinghill]

... while others like you panic and reach.

I'd like to hear some examples of this you guys are seeing so far this year. It sure will be fun to laugh at during the draft. Someone is sure to just snap and take Romo/Ryan/Manning/Manning/Rivers in the 3rd round or something, or hilariously towards the end of the 2nd round. Won't be me.

 

[Sweetness_34]

Cutler.... Go see his schedule... Pair him with Schaub.... NFC N defs suck except Bears.... AFC South defenses suck.... Bears play NFC W too

Thank me later

 

[D.C. Trout]

Cutler.... Go see his schedule... Pair him with Schaub.... NFC N defs suck except Bears.... AFC South defenses suck.... Bears play NFC W tooThank me later

I agree that Culter is a fantastic option this year, but you're not at all biased, are you?

 

[rocketsauce]

Plus, you and a few others pull the trigger on QB in the first round, you cause a run on QB, so Stafford & Cam go in the 2nd, and before you know people are snatching up the next tier in the 3rd, and you're having RB & WR value drop down to you, pick by pick.

 

[johnadams]

Rivers all day at his 7.01 ADP. Money.

 

[ponchsox]

I'm not targeting a QB with the 9th pick but if I don't get to pick a good RB (CJ or McFadden) I am going to take Brees. I have never drafted a QB in the first round, but this year first round talent really falls off after the top 9 players.

 

[Run It Up]

Ive done about 20 mocks out of the 9 seat going QB first targetting brady, and every team ive made has come out terribly. The runs on RBs can last into the late 3rd, its pretty ridiculous.

Best RB core ive managed with Brady in the 1.09 is:

Ahmad Bradshaw

Reggie Bush

Ben Tate

Rashard Mendenhall

Rashad Jennings

I liked the team, its just that it only happened once, perhaps going Brady/Gronk isnt the best course of action, but id much rather take gronk in the 2nd then my rb1 being one of Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson(never thought id say that), Marshawn Lynch or Fred Jackson.

For those curious-

QB: Brady, SchaubRB: Bradshaw, Bush, Tate, Mendenhall, JenningsWR: Jennings, Maclin, Stevie Johnson, Lance Moore, Mike Williams (TB), Danny AmendolaTE: Rob Gronkowski, Greg Olsen

 

[ponchsox]

Ive done about 20 mocks out of the 9 seat going QB first targetting brady, and every team ive made has come out terribly. The runs on RBs can last into the late 3rd, its pretty ridiculous.Best RB core ive managed with Brady in the 1.09 is:Ahmad BradshawReggie BushBen TateRashard MendenhallRashad JenningsI liked the team, its just that it only happened once, perhaps going Brady/Gronk isnt the best course of action, but id much rather take gronk in the 2nd then my rb1 being one of Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson(never thought id say that), Marshawn Lynch or Fred Jackson.

If you go QB in round one, I think you're almost better off taking a TE or Julio Jones in round 2 and shooting for lottery ticket RBs late. If you can have an advantage in 2 positions and draft 4-5 RB and get two that end up performing as RB2s, you should have a solid team. If I miss out on CJ or DMAC at #9, I just can't justify taking someone like Matt Forte in the first, especially in non-ppr. Having two #2 RBs to start your draft puts you at a disadvantage already.

 

[Donsmith753]

I'll take two of Roethlisberger, BenFreeman, JoshPalmer, CarsonSchaub, MattCutler, Jayor Brady or Brees if I have a late first.If an early first I will target Manning, EliRyan, MattRivers, PhilipRomo, TonyManning, Peytonor Rodgers if in the 5 spot

I'd almost drop romo out of that. Oline looks bad, and witten/austin/dez may ALL miss some time. Scary situation.

To be fair both Dez and Austin were injured for periods last year.

 

[James Daulton]

Here's my current re-draft 11th slot results. The big 3 + Stafford went ahead of me in round #1. Non-ppr, 6pt TDs all, TE required:

11 J Graham

14 R Matthews

25 A. Bradshaw

28 G. Jennings

39 D. Brown

42 J. Machlin

53 P. Garcon

56 R. Hulu

67 J. Cutler

70 D. Wilson

When I took Cutler, Shaub and Rothlisberger were available.

Newton went 2.08, Ryan 3.01, Vick 3.02, Rivers 5.03. You either have to wait and hope like I did, or reach to get a sure-fire QB.

 

[jdubs952]

Did some analysis of this you guys might be interested in - using the most up to date projections from football guys & drafting from the 6 spot in a 12 team league here 2 scenarios (I actually did 2 mock drafts and was able to get these lineups).

Draft Brady in first:

Brady

Andre

Roddy White

Hernandez

Antonio Brown

Hillis

McGahee

Draft Calvin in first:

Calvin

Andre

Roddy White

Gore/Bush

Hillis

Eli or Ryan

After removing the same players from each draft, the difference is Brady + McGahee + Brown vs. Calvin + Gore + Ryan/Eli. Here are the results averaging the 3 football guy projections:

Brady Draft = 699

Calvin Draft = 721

so 22 points over the entire season is about 1 point per game. I believe football guys projections use 6 points per passing TD, so this gap widens to about 90 points over the season with 4 points per TD (can someone confirm that they use 6 per passing td?).

To summarize, I'd go w/ Brady in a 6 points per TD league, but I'd go Calvin in 4 point per TD league. QBs do not miss as much time and to me, that is worth the 1 point per week.

 

[Run It Up]

Just tried out of the 10. Not looking pretty.

1. Brees (Brady went 3rd, Rodgers 4th)

2. Gronk

3. Gore (yeah its that bad)

4. Greg Jennings

5. Jeremy Maclin

6. Stevie Johnson

7. Steven Ridley

8. Deangello Williams

9. Lance Moore

10. Rashard Mendenhall

I dont hate my RBs, just very uncomfortable.

I dont think there is anyway I dont end up with a QBBC this year.

 

[bagger]

... while others like you panic and reach.

I'd like to hear some examples of this you guys are seeing so far this year. It sure will be fun to laugh at during the draft. Someone is sure to just snap and take Romo/Ryan/Manning/Manning/Rivers in the 3rd round or something, or hilariously towards the end of the 2nd round. Won't be me.

ryan went at 3.12 in my draft.insane.

 

[Lord Fantasy]

I know the FBG community is down on Flacco as a talent but I don't see how he's not in this conversation.

1. Their new no-huddle offense is going to flow through him.

2. Great pass-catching back in Rice.

3. Emergent down field WR in Smith and solid possession guy in Boldin.

4. Two talented pass-catching TEs (who are admittedly banged up now but it's not knee or hamstring stuff)

Frankly I'm surprised he's being taken after Freeman (run heavy offense, new coach, inconsistent history).

I'm in the 5-spot in a 12-teamer with 4pt TDs. If I skip Brady in the first I'm going Cutler/Flacco later on.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

the shark move this year is to take Brady in the 1st

maybe if you have the 6th - 12th overall pick...

I have #9 and I'm 90% certain that he, Rodgers, and Brees will all be gone by #9. I'm currently trying to decide whether or not to take Stafford at #9.

 

[moleculo]

the shark move this year is to take Brady in the 1st

maybe if you have the 6th - 12th overall pick...

I have #9 and I'm 90% certain that he, Rodgers, and Brees will all be gone by #9. I'm currently trying to decide whether or not to take Stafford at #9.

i wouldn't. That feels like a reach to me.

 

[Deamon]

I'll take two of Roethlisberger, BenFreeman, JoshPalmer, CarsonSchaub, MattCutler, Jayor Brady or Brees if I have a late first.If an early first I will target Manning, EliRyan, MattRivers, PhilipRomo, TonyManning, Peytonor Rodgers if in the 5 spot

I'd almost drop romo out of that. Oline looks bad, and witten/austin/dez may ALL miss some time. Scary situation.

To be fair both Dez and Austin were injured for periods last year.

True, but the oline was better and witten was healthy. And Laurent Robinson put up monstar numbers in relief of those two guy, and he's gone now too.

 

[Run It Up]

If I skip Brady in the first I'm going Cutler/Flacco later on.

Ive ran a QBBC in almost all my leagues for the passed 3 years. Flacco has been in almost all of them, and he has been nothing short of useless.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

the shark move this year is to take Brady in the 1st

maybe if you have the 6th - 12th overall pick...

I have #9 and I'm 90% certain that he, Rodgers, and Brees will all be gone by #9. I'm currently trying to decide whether or not to take Stafford at #9.

i wouldn't. That feels like a reach to me.

Dominator has him at #8 in VBD value. Not a TE-required league, so Graham and Gronk are somewhat devalued. Calvin will be gone, as will the big 3 RBs and at least one other. If not Stafford, I'm looking at Fitzgerald, McFadden maybe, possibly Forte.

 

[ponchsox]

So you have the 9th pick in a 12 team non-ppr QBs = 4 points passing TDs

Top 3 RB, Megatron, Rodgers, Brady, McFadden, CJ all gone. Do you take Brees or go with the next best RB, Forte?

 

[Ilov80s]

So you have the 9th pick in a 12 team non-ppr QBs = 4 points passing TDsTop 3 RB, Megatron, Rodgers, Brady, McFadden, CJ all gone. Do you take Brees or go with the next best RB, Forte?

Brees, Forte might still be there in 2nd.

 

[Godsbrother]

Rothlesberger- his #1 WR is holding out, his O-line is patched up with rookies

I really think you see people 'reaching' for their QB this season. Can you stomach what may happen if you don't as well ?

You say this like it is a bad thing. Seriously the Steelers offensive line should be better this season than they have in years and Wallace is supposedly going to report by week's end. I still wouldn't put Roethlisberger in the top tier of FF QBs but I don't think the situation is a bleak as you painted it.

 

[Deamon]

So you have the 9th pick in a 12 team non-ppr QBs = 4 points passing TDsTop 3 RB, Megatron, Rodgers, Brady, McFadden, CJ all gone. Do you take Brees or go with the next best RB, Forte?

Brees, Forte might still be there in 2nd.

Forte all day.

 

[xenon]

the shark move this year is to take Brady in the 1st

maybe if you have the 6th - 12th overall pick...

I have #9 and I'm 90% certain that he, Rodgers, and Brees will all be gone by #9. I'm currently trying to decide whether or not to take Stafford at #9.

i wouldn't. That feels like a reach to me.

Would Stafford be considered a reach at @ 2.4 (16 overall i.e second pick from the 9 spot?)

 

[xenon]

So you have the 9th pick in a 12 team non-ppr QBs = 4 points passing TDsTop 3 RB, Megatron, Rodgers, Brady, McFadden, CJ all gone. Do you take Brees or go with the next best RB, Forte?

I'm in the same spot and MOST likely going with Forte. I am actually contemplating Stafford with my second pick and I elude that in another post on this same thread inquiring whether or not that is a reach. Having said all that, should Brees get drafted, it means another player you might not have expected to be available..will be available. Most likely, Mcfadden or CJ2K.

 

[moleculo]

the shark move this year is to take Brady in the 1st

maybe if you have the 6th - 12th overall pick...

I have #9 and I'm 90% certain that he, Rodgers, and Brees will all be gone by #9. I'm currently trying to decide whether or not to take Stafford at #9.

i wouldn't. That feels like a reach to me.

Would Stafford be considered a reach at @ 2.4 (16 overall i.e second pick from the 9 spot?)

maybe, not as bad. I have nothing to back this up, just my guy feel. Dude has played one season where he has started more than 10 games. One season with more than a 6.0 YPA, an not that it matters, one season with a winning record. Just not sure that feels like a first round QB to me. IMO, for a QB to be worth a 1st rounder, he better be top 2. I'm not very comfortable with Stafford being a top 3, much top 2 QB, and therefore IMO he's not first round material. Early second, I think, is still a slight reach, but not terrible. If you've gotta have him, take him there because he probably won't be there by the bottom half of the 3rd. Or, trade down. Either way.

 

[Brown Juice]

If I skip Brady in the first I'm going Cutler/Flacco later on.

Ive ran a QBBC in almost all my leagues for the passed 3 years. Flacco has been in almost all of them, and he has been nothing short of useless.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

the shark move this year is to take Brady in the 1st

maybe if you have the 6th - 12th overall pick...

I have #9 and I'm 90% certain that he, Rodgers, and Brees will all be gone by #9. I'm currently trying to decide whether or not to take Stafford at #9.

i wouldn't. That feels like a reach to me.

Would Stafford be considered a reach at @ 2.4 (16 overall i.e second pick from the 9 spot?)

No, but if I don't take him at #9, he'll be gone before #16, I'm damn near sure of it.

 

[moleculo]

the shark move this year is to take Brady in the 1st

maybe if you have the 6th - 12th overall pick...

I have #9 and I'm 90% certain that he, Rodgers, and Brees will all be gone by #9. I'm currently trying to decide whether or not to take Stafford at #9.

i wouldn't. That feels like a reach to me.

Would Stafford be considered a reach at @ 2.4 (16 overall i.e second pick from the 9 spot?)

No, but if I don't take him at #9, he'll be gone before #16, I'm damn near sure of it.

I think you've fallen in love w/ Stafford.

 

[mt99808]

the shark move this year is to take Brady in the 1st

maybe if you have the 6th - 12th overall pick...

I have #9 and I'm 90% certain that he, Rodgers, and Brees will all be gone by #9. I'm currently trying to decide whether or not to take Stafford at #9.

i wouldn't. That feels like a reach to me.

Would Stafford be considered a reach at @ 2.4 (16 overall i.e second pick from the 9 spot?)

No, but if I don't take him at #9, he'll be gone before #16, I'm damn near sure of it.

I think you've fallen in love w/ Stafford.

Whats not to love about a QB who threw for 5k, 41 TD's while playing 3 games with a broken finger who now has even better WR's and a better OL?

 

[moleculo]

the shark move this year is to take Brady in the 1st

maybe if you have the 6th - 12th overall pick...

I have #9 and I'm 90% certain that he, Rodgers, and Brees will all be gone by #9. I'm currently trying to decide whether or not to take Stafford at #9.

i wouldn't. That feels like a reach to me.

Would Stafford be considered a reach at @ 2.4 (16 overall i.e second pick from the 9 spot?)

No, but if I don't take him at #9, he'll be gone before #16, I'm damn near sure of it.

I think you've fallen in love w/ Stafford.

Whats not to love about a QB who threw for 5k, 41 TD's while playing 3 games with a broken finger who now has even better WR's and a better OL?

Dude has played one season where he has started more than 10 games. One season with more than a 6.0 YPA, and not that it matters, one season with a winning record. Just not sure that feels like a first round QB to me. IMO, for a QB to be worth a 1st rounder, he better be top 2. I'm not very comfortable with Stafford being a top 3, much top 2 QB, and therefore IMO he's not first round material. Early second, I think, is still a slight reach, but not terrible.

 

[Ilov80s]

the shark move this year is to take Brady in the 1st

maybe if you have the 6th - 12th overall pick...

I have #9 and I'm 90% certain that he, Rodgers, and Brees will all be gone by #9. I'm currently trying to decide whether or not to take Stafford at #9.

i wouldn't. That feels like a reach to me.

Would Stafford be considered a reach at @ 2.4 (16 overall i.e second pick from the 9 spot?)

No, but if I don't take him at #9, he'll be gone before #16, I'm damn near sure of it.

I think you've fallen in love w/ Stafford.

Whats not to love about a QB who threw for 5k, 41 TD's while playing 3 games with a broken finger who now has even better WR's and a better OL?

Dude has played one season where he has started more than 10 games. One season with more than a 6.0 YPA, and not that it matters, one season with a winning record. Just not sure that feels like a first round QB to me. IMO, for a QB to be worth a 1st rounder, he better be top 2. I'm not very comfortable with Stafford being a top 3, much top 2 QB, and therefore IMO he's not first round material. Early second, I think, is still a slight reach, but not terrible.

The issue isn't Stafford, it is who else is out there. Everyone in the late first is questionable. Best thing to do is ignore the ADP and rankings, take the guy you want.

 

[moleculo]

the shark move this year is to take Brady in the 1st

maybe if you have the 6th - 12th overall pick...

I have #9 and I'm 90% certain that he, Rodgers, and Brees will all be gone by #9. I'm currently trying to decide whether or not to take Stafford at #9.

i wouldn't. That feels like a reach to me.

Would Stafford be considered a reach at @ 2.4 (16 overall i.e second pick from the 9 spot?)

No, but if I don't take him at #9, he'll be gone before #16, I'm damn near sure of it.

I think you've fallen in love w/ Stafford.

Whats not to love about a QB who threw for 5k, 41 TD's while playing 3 games with a broken finger who now has even better WR's and a better OL?

Dude has played one season where he has started more than 10 games. One season with more than a 6.0 YPA, and not that it matters, one season with a winning record. Just not sure that feels like a first round QB to me. IMO, for a QB to be worth a 1st rounder, he better be top 2. I'm not very comfortable with Stafford being a top 3, much top 2 QB, and therefore IMO he's not first round material. Early second, I think, is still a slight reach, but not terrible.

The issue isn't Stafford, it is who else is out there. Everyone in the late first is questionable. Best thing to do is ignore the ADP and rankings, take the guy you want.

fair enough.Here's a list of players I like better than Stafford, no questions asked:FosterRiceRodgersCalvin JohnsonGrahamMcCoyFitzgeraldBradyBrees===========Here's a list of players I also like better than Stafford, but could at least entertain being in the same ballpark:GronkowskiForteWelkerRoddy WhiteAndre JohnsonBrandon MarshallJulio JonesAJ GreenChris JohnsonMJD (assuming an end to the holdout)McFaddenso that puts Stafford in around 2.08 in 12 man, PPR.(for the record, the above is merely my opinion; I am far from authoritarian on the matter and may be completely full of crap)

 

[Evilgrin 72]

the shark move this year is to take Brady in the 1st

maybe if you have the 6th - 12th overall pick...

I have #9 and I'm 90% certain that he, Rodgers, and Brees will all be gone by #9. I'm currently trying to decide whether or not to take Stafford at #9.

i wouldn't. That feels like a reach to me.

Would Stafford be considered a reach at @ 2.4 (16 overall i.e second pick from the 9 spot?)

No, but if I don't take him at #9, he'll be gone before #16, I'm damn near sure of it.

I think you've fallen in love w/ Stafford.

It's not really that, it's that our league is 50 yds/pt and 6 pt TDs for QBs and 20 yds/pt and 6 pt TDs rush/rec, so QBs are highly valued, also a non-TE required league and no PPR. QBs represented the top 11 ppg scorers last year and VBD this year has Rodgers, Brady, and Brees ranked 1,2, and 3 and Stafford #8. Last year, 4 QBs went in the top 13 picks, and this year is trending even more QB-heavy, so between that and past league draft tendencies, I'm fairly certain that the top 3 QBs will go in the first 6-7 picks and Stafford will be drafted between 8-15. I have 9 and 16, so it's either take Stafford at #9 or go with McFadden there and wait until the 4th round or so to draft a QB (Romo, Eli, Ryan maybe.)

 

[moleculo]

the shark move this year is to take Brady in the 1st

maybe if you have the 6th - 12th overall pick...

I have #9 and I'm 90% certain that he, Rodgers, and Brees will all be gone by #9. I'm currently trying to decide whether or not to take Stafford at #9.

i wouldn't. That feels like a reach to me.

Would Stafford be considered a reach at @ 2.4 (16 overall i.e second pick from the 9 spot?)

No, but if I don't take him at #9, he'll be gone before #16, I'm damn near sure of it.

I think you've fallen in love w/ Stafford.

It's not really that, it's that our league is 50 yds/pt and 6 pt TDs for QBs and 20 yds/pt and 6 pt TDs rush/rec, so QBs are highly valued, also a non-TE required league and no PPR. QBs represented the top 11 ppg scorers last year and VBD this year has Rodgers, Brady, and Brees ranked 1,2, and 3 and Stafford #8. Last year, 4 QBs went in the top 13 picks, and this year is trending even more QB-heavy, so between that and past league draft tendencies, I'm fairly certain that the top 3 QBs will go in the first 6-7 picks and Stafford will be drafted between 8-15. I have 9 and 16, so it's either take Stafford at #9 or go with McFadden there and wait until the 4th round or so to draft a QB (Romo, Eli, Ryan maybe.)

ok, with that format, I think 9th is about right. I plugged in those parameters into my spreadsheet, and I have only the big 3 RB's, the big 3 QB's, the two TE's and Calvin Johnson ahead of Stafford.