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McFadden: Hold or Sell? (1 Viewer)
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CompetitiveEdgeFootball
Footballguy
I probably would have sold him already. After week 2-3 I think. To the angry DeAngelo owner, or in a package to the panicking MJD owner (not all MJD owners are panicking). The Ryan Grant owner probably #### a brick when he went down, I bet you could have held him for ransom.
Possum
Footballguy
I was responding to azprof's statement that he feels Bush might become the starting RB from here on out, which is what I meant by McFadden getting benched. I doubt that happens - I think what you're suggesting above is likely to be the absolute worst case for McFadden from here on out, so let's work off of that. if you take out QB runs, the Raiders are averaging about 25 carries per game so far. Let's assume that stays constant (although I actually think Oakland would prefer to run it 30+ times per game if possible) and there's a 50/50 split between both backs - McFadden's averaging 4.6 ypc, so that would give him around 55 ypg on 12 carries. That's not great, but he's also averaging 4 catches and 40 yards per game, and I don't think Bush is going to take many receptions from him at all. Even if you knocked him down to 3 catches/30 yards per game, he'd still be averaging around 85 ypg combined plus the receptions. He's not going to be the goal-line back, but he wasn't doing much goal-line work anyway, and with his speed and explosiveness I think he's still a good bet for around 4-5 TDs combined. so in a PPR league he'd still be averaging double-digit points per game, and his owners probably drafted him in the double-digit rounds. And I think that's his floor - I think if he's healthy going forward, it's going to be at least a 60-40 workload split in favor of McFadden, possibly even higher. I admit I could be completely wrong, but I think taking everything into account - his fantasy draft position, talent, outstanding production so far, weak schedule going forward, and the desire by management to see their former #1 pick succeed - that the reward far outweighs the risk with this guy. So I don't understand why people are so quick to want to sell him off. I'd much rather hold onto him at this point - if he falls off the map, you didn't lose any big investment, and if he continues his production, you picked up a huge late-round gem.
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sandlotshrink
Footballguy
While I understand that trading him prior to the injury was the optimal time, most others owners were aware that his value was limited to the first 4 weeks until Bush returned resulting in shared carries. He never had a lot of trade value despite his performances....at least in the leagues I play in because of the threat of a RBBC.
CompetitiveEdgeFootball
Footballguy
I'm secretly elated that he's hurt because I never believed in that guy, so I didn't draft him in any league I have. 
Maybe I'm a bad person.
Maybe I'm a bad person.
az_prof
Footballguy
I didn't actually say Bush will be the starting running back from here on out. I said that there is no guarantee that McFadden will. I reminded people that Bush played better than McFadden last year in that same putrid offense and that he was running with the 1s all off season and preseason. He does some thing better; McFadden does something better. Bottom line: it is not at all clear how this will play out. It could be that Bush seizes the job and doesn't let go. It could be that he plays badly. It could be that they split time evenly. It could be that they have a time share with one of them getting more than the other.
"The Waterboy"
Footballguy
I think the issue that's not been mentioned enough on here but is probably the most important is this - Mr. Davis loves him some DMC and we all know what happens when he's in love with one of "his" players!!!!! I own both DMC and Bush and I truly believe that if DMC comes back completely healthy in a week or two, his carry percentage will be just slightly less than it was last week before he tweeked his hammy!! That being said, I'm not sure if I like owning both or not...it's not like the Raiders are some prolific offense but I do admit that DMC has definitely helped me win at least 2 games this year!!! Just a fella's $.02.....
Possum
Footballguy
oops, my bad - you did say "it's possible" and I must've glossed over that. I edited my post above.
I agree with you that the situation's a little messy right now, but I think there's every reason to be very optimistic about McFadden the rest of the way. I'm sure they'll be splitting carries in some manner, but barring an explosion from Bush over the next couple games, I think McFadden will get the majority of the workload once he's healthy again.
It's the Raiders O, their use of him and his adjustment to the game.
It's been some time since I've seen Jeff Fisher (on video) concerned about a runner so much.
I was shocked a bit that this RB that only had a 4 and 500 yard season would concern anyone really. I remember he was touted when he entered the league but at the start of the season my opinion was near rock-bottom.
He ran for 95 against the Titans.
The other weeks:
Mendenhall 69
Bradshaw 88
Broncos RBs just stunk
Take a look at his stats this year:
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play...0/gamelog/2010/
You've got issues if you don't like his production.
If he cost you a high pick in dynasty and you waited through two junky seasons to get to this point...how on earth can you sell him now?
Blame him, blame the raiders, blame the OC or the HC...who cares about the past.
On average he gets 4 catches for 40 yards, about 100 yards rushing- and a TD every other week. Are you really expecting more from an FF RB? He compares favorably to most ever NFL RB except maybe in the TD stat line.
Isn't this what the hype around him was once about?
Geesh I'm out to go test the trade waters and see if I can get him. I love the SP and much respect and all but on this... I think you guys are nuts. Totally making trade offers now
It's been some time since I've seen Jeff Fisher (on video) concerned about a runner so much.
I was shocked a bit that this RB that only had a 4 and 500 yard season would concern anyone really. I remember he was touted when he entered the league but at the start of the season my opinion was near rock-bottom.
He ran for 95 against the Titans.
The other weeks:
Mendenhall 69
Bradshaw 88
Broncos RBs just stunk
Take a look at his stats this year:
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play...0/gamelog/2010/
You've got issues if you don't like his production.
If he cost you a high pick in dynasty and you waited through two junky seasons to get to this point...how on earth can you sell him now?
Blame him, blame the raiders, blame the OC or the HC...who cares about the past.
On average he gets 4 catches for 40 yards, about 100 yards rushing- and a TD every other week. Are you really expecting more from an FF RB? He compares favorably to most ever NFL RB except maybe in the TD stat line.
Isn't this what the hype around him was once about?
Geesh I'm out to go test the trade waters and see if I can get him. I love the SP and much respect and all but on this... I think you guys are nuts. Totally making trade offers now
road warrior
Footballguy
Gotta love bitter Bush owners. Hey, you have this week, enjoy it. It goes back to the way it was once DMC is healthy. You can count on it. Sorry. 
two_dollars
Footballguy
Al Davis is starting to feel justified with McFadden playing well. If Al wants it, McFadden is the guy, regardless of how Bush does.
(for the record I have both)
(for the record I have both)
Northbound Train
Footballguy
I have/had Run DMC in a pair of leagues and Bush in the other...lend me your crystal ball when you're done with itGotta love bitter Bush owners. Hey, you have this week, enjoy it. It goes back to the way it was once DMC is healthy. You can count on it. Sorry.
Dr. Awesome
Footballguy
Did anyone expect him to continue as a top 5 guy? FWIW, he's the #4 rb in my league. What possible value were you getting for this guy that would compare to the upside of keeping him on your team? He wasn't getting his points from touchdowns. He was racking up the yardage. He still has an easy schedule. He'll miss a game or two but I see no reason to think he won't be top 10 when he plays.I've been a big McFadden hater btw. I drafted him as my 'handcuff' to Bush and almost cut him before week 1 as I didn't think he'd do much with the chance. This kid looks very good. I'm happy to say I was wrong.People weren't giving away a ton to get this guy when he was top 5...and they're sure as hell not going to give away a bunch right now. You need to hold onto this kid. I'd even try to buy him if I didn't already own him.THIS
I am a McFadden owner and A) I don't expect him back next week B) when he does come back he will not be getting all of the carries C) there is an outside chance that Bush is even better than McFadden and you'll see a 50/50 split and neither will be as effective. I am hoping Bush really suxGotta love bitter Bush owners. Hey, you have this week, enjoy it. It goes back to the way it was once DMC is healthy. You can count on it. Sorry.
Dr. Awesome
Footballguy
Am I the only McFadden owner hoping Bush doesn't suck? I don't want him to light the world on fire but I'd love to see him look above average. Every rb gets some breathers...if they can let our guy get some occasional rest and have the replacement not end the drive from sucking, I think that's a good thing.
Most of us who drafted DMC in redraft drafted him because Bush was out week 1 with the prospect of him sitting a month a more, as of draft day. We got lucky as his production was off the charts. Bush has been healthy the last 2 weeks and was #2 OAK RB based on DMC production. They drafted this kid high, he finally came into his own, DON'T GIVE HIM UP NOW, UNLESS SOMEONE OFFERS YOU A RIDICULOUS DEAL. Sometimes it's best to keep your players who are perfoming.
Yeah, Davis does seem to still fall in love with players, and he does seem to still "force" them to play.Like with Gallery....oh wait, they moved him to guard b/c he wasn't good enough at LT.
Or with Russell....oh wait, they cut him because he sucked.
Oh, yeah, what about Campbell; they went out and traded for him because he fit Davis' vertical passing preference....oh, wait, they benched him because he wasn't getting it done.
Well now I'm confused. You indicated that if Davis endorses a guy, he's good to go, but that facts don't bear that out?
Maybe you're thinking of, like, 10 years ago?Actually, Bush was not "healthy." He was testing out how his thumb would hold up, and that, coupled with McFadden's success, is why he was limited those 2 weeks. Now, using that same logic, if Bush is successful, it would make sense for the Raiders to limit McFadden until they are sure his hammy is healed. I wouldn't just give McFadden away, but to suggest that his performance kept a 100% healthy Bush on the bench is just false.
Gotta love delusional, in denial McFadden owners. Hey, you had your time, hope you enjoyed it. Bush is going to be the main RB now. You can count on it. Sorry.Gotta love bitter Bush owners. Hey, you have this week, enjoy it. It goes back to the way it was once DMC is healthy. You can count on it. Sorry.
See, I can do that too. Just because you typed something on a message board, doesn't make it true.The fact is that Bush has a chance for this week (and probably at least next week) to be successful. The more successful he is, the more likely it will be that McFadden is given longer to heal. If Bush is successful, it will be a RBBC when McFadden is back. If Bush isn't than McFadden could continue to get the lion's share of the carries. It will be determined by what happens on the field, not by what some delusional "road warrior" posts on a MB.Agreed.......my point was exagerated as far as bush being healthy, I really wanted Bush and drafted Mcfadden as a hancuff and for weeks 1-2, and I am surprised how he did. But as of this moment, I do feel if both were healthy, I think Mcfadden has earned the majority of the carries, based on the first 4 weeks.
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Hipple Long Ware & Peete
Footballguy
too bad J campbell didnt pan out. Cuz u could call Bush "run" Mcfadden DMC and Campbell Jammaster J
CaptainHook
Footballguy
Probably because it's nothing but your unfounded opinionwhy do I have to keep repeating this?Clifford said:If you're saying Bush will be used to spell McFadden and possibly in short-yardage situations then I agree. However that in no way makes McFadden a sell. People are saying this will kill his value. Being spelled is not going to kill his value.70/3050/50
fantasizing
Footballguy
iF i hazard a guess, assuming both being healthy
60% DMAC
40% Bush
DMac on 3rd down plays
Bush on goaline plays
Fantasy production may end up being the same for both (Bush getting TD's but DMAc getting receiving yards in addition to his rushing totals).
DMac seems more likely than BUsh to break one for a long TD, so there's more risk/reward with him.
I could see things like this happening on average weekly basis:
DMac 18 carries, 80 yards, 7 receptions, 55 yards, 0 TD's
Bush 12 carries, 42 yards, 1-2 TD's.
60% DMAC
40% Bush
DMac on 3rd down plays
Bush on goaline plays
Fantasy production may end up being the same for both (Bush getting TD's but DMAc getting receiving yards in addition to his rushing totals).
DMac seems more likely than BUsh to break one for a long TD, so there's more risk/reward with him.
I could see things like this happening on average weekly basis:
DMac 18 carries, 80 yards, 7 receptions, 55 yards, 0 TD's
Bush 12 carries, 42 yards, 1-2 TD's.
rayjones248
Footballguy
Before Michael Bush's injury, he was considered a sleeper going into this fantasy football season. DMC has done an amazing job filling in for Bush. I've said this before and I'll say it again. DMC will not hold up this season due to his injuries suffered in the past. Come on, did you DMC owners expected him to bust out the season like that? I'm amazed at the owners who think he will continue at this rate.
Sell DMC however I don't think you can get much out of DMC now with Bush's emergence. The shark move was to sell DMC last week.
Sell DMC however I don't think you can get much out of DMC now with Bush's emergence. The shark move was to sell DMC last week.
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I would keep Dmac but expect what he is a RB2 or flex play every week. With Bush back hes not a RB1 anymore but he will still have value. Both Bush and Dmac have RB 2/3 or Flex value. And if one is injured the one playing has RB1 value. Just like Dmac owners should not ecpect RB1 numbers when Bush was healthy , Bush owners should not excpect Rb1 numbers for Bush when Dmac returns.
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For those interested in Dynasty value, I traded McFadden this week for a 2011 1st round pick and Erik Coleman (who the other guy would have had to drop).
My team is strapped at RB (starting Torain and Betts this week with Moreno's injury), but I've never been a McFadden fan. I don't think he can stay healthy. I took over a team that needed rebuilding, so I don't mind moving McFadden for a pick to get "my guy."
I highly doubt that I could have gotten that deal for him preseason, and I don't think I could get that value for him at the end of the season to be honest.
My team is strapped at RB (starting Torain and Betts this week with Moreno's injury), but I've never been a McFadden fan. I don't think he can stay healthy. I took over a team that needed rebuilding, so I don't mind moving McFadden for a pick to get "my guy."
I highly doubt that I could have gotten that deal for him preseason, and I don't think I could get that value for him at the end of the season to be honest.
Really? Tell that to AP and CJ ... I want my backs carry the rock 30 times a game with no rest.
That's right ... and now he is stuck behind a back who never get's injured !!! Oh crap ... I forgot Bush lost his job because he was injured.
CrazyHorse1581
Footballguy
I think you'd be a fool to sell McFadden now. You have to hold him until the injury has healed. That being said, I don't understand the Bush love affair everyone seems to have. What exactly has he done thus far in his NFL career? He's had one season where he played all 16 games and couldn't even manage 600 rushing yards.
Been injured a lot? Check.
Shown flashes of potential? Check.
Average over 4 YPC? Check.
Sound familiar? He's basically a lessor talented Darren McFadden with all of the same issues. The difference? McFadden is earning way more $$ and was a first round pick. When both are healthy he will step right back in and at the worst have a 50/50 split.
**Yes I own McFadden, but with only an 11th round pick invested in him I can afford to wait until he's healthy to deal him.
Been injured a lot? Check.
Shown flashes of potential? Check.
Average over 4 YPC? Check.
Sound familiar? He's basically a lessor talented Darren McFadden with all of the same issues. The difference? McFadden is earning way more $$ and was a first round pick. When both are healthy he will step right back in and at the worst have a 50/50 split.
**Yes I own McFadden, but with only an 11th round pick invested in him I can afford to wait until he's healthy to deal him.
Northbound Train
Footballguy
I'd do it in a heartbeat...somebody is going to find a way to get Fitz the ball
He played very well. Ran hard and decisive. He did everything that McFadden is unable to do- get tough, hard yards in the middle of the field, driving piles. McFadden brings plenty to the table that Bush is unable to replicate, namely big play ability, but Bush brings plenty to the table that McFadden is unable to replicate as well. Long story longer, this is clearly NOT McFadden's show to run alone. I'm not saying it will be a straight 50/50 split, but even if McFadden retains the "starting" job, we are looking at an ugly fantasy situation. I foresee something along the lines of a 60/40 split (or even closer to even), with Bush getting goal line touches. I could be wrong, but I saw NOTHING today to change my opinion that McFadden was never going to be "the man" and get 80% of the touches upon his return. The unfortunate part of this situation is that the mere presence of the other back will probably prevent either one of them from being overly useful fantasy options.
Banger
Footballguy
I'm sure most of the McFadden owners are reassessing the exuberance in this thread (if not they should be) as it looks like this is shaping up to be a fantasy mess. This backfield has literally been like a ping pong ball bouncing back and forth as both have looked good when they got their shots. My thought is that when McFadden comes back he gets about 40% of the carries and the majority of the catches while Bush gets the majority (60%) of the carries, the goal line looks and an odd few catches here or there. I'm not really sure which is the better back to own at this point. I own Bush and I'm not quite sure the right direction to go...do you try and acquire McFadden and have a full blown RBBC on your hands (not a fan of this)? do you deal Bush to the McFadden owner (or someone else) off his strong game? or do you hold? Personally, I'm leaning toward trying to package him up for an upgrade or otherwise holding onto him for the weeks when McFadden goes down. What are the pools thoughts on this situation and how it's going to shake out and if you are trying to acquire or deal McFadden or Bush.
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sandlotshrink
Footballguy
FWIW, I tried to deal McFadden to the Bush owner last week for a 7th round pick in next years draft. We each keep 2 players so it's actually like a 9th round pick. Regardless, I was shot down. I thought it was more than a fair offer, but apparently the other owner did not want to entertain another possible RBBC scenario or feel it was worth the pick to see how things shake out.
skinsrule05
Footballguy
This seems to make sense. McFadden has a better chance at the big play so they will want him in there more. I would see Bush being the goal line guy and the grinder for when games are in hand. McFadden will get the receptions. So in total touches you could see McFadden in the 15-20 range and Bush 10-15. It is going to hurt both of their value's but maybe with this workload they will be able to stay healthy.
Babu Bhatt2
Footballguy
If McFadden comes back healthy, going forward Bush will get more carries, McFadden more receptions. In terms of fantasy production, it will be a 50/50 split.
Northbound Train
Footballguy
Hope you pulled the trigger...at best we'll have a serious split moving forward at RB in Oaktown.Would love to hear Clifford's take on this first game....
Bush looked real good against a sound D
Dr. Awesome
Footballguy
I don't think SD's defense is that sound. I think by the end of the season they will not be anything more than a middling rush defense.
I also think Bush will get the touchdowns and short yardage work, but McFadden, when healthy, will retain the bulk of the touches.
I also think Bush will get the touchdowns and short yardage work, but McFadden, when healthy, will retain the bulk of the touches.
Northbound Train
Footballguy
COming into the game they were one of the best vs the run if not the best.Week 1 ~ Chiefs 23-131-1Week 2 ~ Jags 21-69-0Week 3 ~ Seahawks 18-63-0Week 4 ~ Cards 14-47-0Week 5 ~ Raiders 26-104-1They've only allowed 2 ground scores in 5 games by opposing backs..and one of them was to Bush yesterday....They're currently the 2nd ranked D in PPR leagues allowing 16.9 ppg, trailing only the Jets and by the time A.D is done tonight they could be the #1 defense vs the run in FF. Pretty solid thru 5 weeks
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road warrior
Footballguy
Sorry Coach Cable. Didn't realize you were a FBG subscriber. You rock.Gotta love delusional, in denial McFadden owners. Hey, you had your time, hope you enjoyed it. Bush is going to be the main RB now. You can count on it. Sorry.Gotta love bitter Bush owners. Hey, you have this week, enjoy it. It goes back to the way it was once DMC is healthy. You can count on it. Sorry.See, I can do that too. Just because you typed something on a message board, doesn't make it true.The fact is that Bush has a chance for this week (and probably at least next week) to be successful. The more successful he is, the more likely it will be that McFadden is given longer to heal. If Bush is successful, it will be a RBBC when McFadden is back. If Bush isn't than McFadden could continue to get the lion's share of the carries. It will be determined by what happens on the field, not by what some delusional "road warrior" posts on a MB.
TheAristocrat
Footballguy
I traded him away last week in a deal for Randy Moss.
NatronIsMean
Footballguy
I don't think the last game changes things a lot. McFadden is still the more versatile option and the likely guy between the 20s. You can argue with that, but that's one man's opinion. Bush looked solid with some McFadden-esque numbers. That said, you can do much more with McFadden. No matter what Bush gets goal line and short yardage.Hope you pulled the trigger...at best we'll have a serious split moving forward at RB in Oaktown.Would love to hear Clifford's take on this first game....
NatronIsMean
Footballguy
On the flipside, you could argue that SD hadn't faced a team that can run (and run block) as well as Oakland. They're simply a good running team with either McFadden or Bush. They've successfully run on everyone this year regardless of the running back. On the year, McFadden has a 4.6 ypc over 4 games. Bush has a 4.4 over 3 games. And that includes a lot of between the tackle running for both guys.But with McFadden, you add the catches (16) and receiving yards (162) and you just have to keep getting that guy on the field. He's too much of the overall offense.COming into the game they were one of the best vs the run if not the best.Week 1 ~ Chiefs 23-131-1Week 2 ~ Jags 21-69-0Week 3 ~ Seahawks 18-63-0Week 4 ~ Cards 14-47-0Week 5 ~ Raiders 26-104-1They've only allowed 2 ground scores in 5 games by opposing backs..and one of them was to Bush yesterday....They're currently the 2nd ranked D in PPR leagues allowing 16.9 ppg, trailing only the Jets and by the time A.D is done tonight they could be the #1 defense vs the run in FF. Pretty solid thru 5 weeks
Dr. Awesome
Footballguy
As I said, we'll see by the time the season draws to a close. I could certainly be wrong, but at this point what they've done does not impress me. The Chiefs ran all over them. The Jags are an awful, awful team who are even worse on the west coast. The Seahawks have a terrible o-line and were running a rbbc at that time that included Julius Jones. The Cardinals had Derek Anderson at qb and Hightower at rb.I realize the stats don't back it up, but I really do not believe the Chargers have a good rushing defense.COming into the game they were one of the best vs the run if not the best.Week 1 ~ Chiefs 23-131-1Week 2 ~ Jags 21-69-0Week 3 ~ Seahawks 18-63-0Week 4 ~ Cards 14-47-0Week 5 ~ Raiders 26-104-1They've only allowed 2 ground scores in 5 games by opposing backs..and one of them was to Bush yesterday....They're currently the 2nd ranked D in PPR leagues allowing 16.9 ppg, trailing only the Jets and by the time A.D is done tonight they could be the #1 defense vs the run in FF. Pretty solid thru 5 weeks
gary mexico
Footballguy
Any news on mcfadden for this week? Is Bush a safe play again?
That's allright, Mr. Davis. I didn't realize you were one eihter. Just as long as you realize that "your guys" haven't done squat lately and we no longer allow you to control all football decisions.Sorry Coach Cable. Didn't realize you were a FBG subscriber. You rock.Gotta love delusional, in denial McFadden owners. Hey, you had your time, hope you enjoyed it. Bush is going to be the main RB now. You can count on it. Sorry.Gotta love bitter Bush owners. Hey, you have this week, enjoy it. It goes back to the way it was once DMC is healthy. You can count on it. Sorry.
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Clifford
Footballguy
I think he likely slid it to more of a 60/40 but McFadden starts and stays in on passing downs. Bush gets all GL and SY duty, plus the pound it out if they are up big at the end of games. Wouldn't count on that happening too much though.I don't think the last game changes things a lot. McFadden is still the more versatile option and the likely guy between the 20s. You can argue with that, but that's one man's opinion. Bush looked solid with some McFadden-esque numbers. That said, you can do much more with McFadden. No matter what Bush gets goal line and short yardage.Hope you pulled the trigger...at best we'll have a serious split moving forward at RB in Oaktown.Would love to hear Clifford's take on this first game....Bush looked real good against a sound D :(
