Michael Turner vs DeAngelo Williams... (1 Viewer)

[Dirty Weasel]

Who do you like more, if neither team takes an early RB?

Turner has the stiffer competition with Jerious Norwwod in the backfield. Offensive lines play a big role too. Will either be a near-300 carry back? Turner has the better chance at more carries, but DeAngelo may get a wider share of touches in CAR. Just another set of players I don't have a firm grasp on. Help if you can, thanx.

 

[David Yudkin]

IMO, the Falcons gave Turner a $34 million contract with $15 million guaranteed. They didn't sign him to that deal to give many carries to Norwood. I also can't see how ATL could justify shelling out close to another $50 million on McFadden and tying up that much money of running backs. IIRC, they are still on the hook for almost all the money they gave Vick as well. That makes Turner the guy in Atlanta as far as I'm concerned. They may add another RB for depth, but I don't see that impacting Turner much. Even with an aging (32 years old) Warrick Dunn as his only competition at RB, Norwood only had one game with 10 carries last year.

I am less convinced that Williams gets the featured back label in Carolina. Even if he did, the Panthers rushing stats have been horrible the pass few years (as in bottom 5 to bottom 10 on a regular basis). That alone would make me concerned as far as fantasy production goes, and if if ends up splitting the workload I think that spells fantasy disappointment in my book. I see the Panthers as much more likely to add an early round RB with a much morely likely chance of that player getting a chunk of the workload.

 

[weisguy0831]

biggest advantage williams will have, i think, is that his team will be ahead late more often. atlanta will be forced to play from behind.

 

[Truman]

Dunno how much difference that will make, if it does turn out to be the case. Teams will rarely give their starter many more than 20 carries anyway. We know Turner will be the goalline guy in Atlanta, will Williams?

 

[zamboni]

biggest advantage williams will have, i think, is that his team will be ahead late more often. atlanta will be forced to play from behind.

Pretty presumptuous at this point - for either team, for that matter. Most would have said last year that Cleveland would be behind most games.

 

[gianmarco]

IMO, the Falcons gave Turner a $34 million contract with $15 million guaranteed. They didn't sign him to that deal to give many carries to Norwood. I also can't see how ATL could justify shelling out close to another $50 million on McFadden and tying up that much money of running backs. IIRC, they are still on the hook for almost all the money they gave Vick as well. That makes Turner the guy in Atlanta as far as I'm concerned. They may add another RB for depth, but I don't see that impacting Turner much. Even with an aging (32 years old) Warrick Dunn as his only competition at RB, Norwood only had one game with 10 carries last year.

I am less convinced that Williams gets the featured back label in Carolina. Even if he did, the Panthers rushing stats have been horrible the pass few years (as in bottom 5 to bottom 10 on a regular basis). That alone would make me concerned as far as fantasy production goes, and if if ends up splitting the workload I think that spells fantasy disappointment in my book. I see the Panthers as much more likely to add an early round RB with a much morely likely chance of that player getting a chunk of the workload.

Carolina's rushing attack has definitely been awful over the course of the last few years, but Atlanta's was worse last year. Atlanta was 26th in yds/game while Carolina was 14th. Both scored a miserable 7 TDs on the ground. So, using that reasoning, Williams has a better chance.Here is a thread I started on this a couple months ago with some good discussion: DeAngelo Williams vs. Michael Turner

I honestly don't know who is going to be better, but I don't think Turner has a clear advantage unless Carolina drafts one of the top 3 RB's (which I don't think will happen). Williams actually did pretty well (to my surprise) with a pretty good # of carries.

 

[gorf]

i liked williams a lot coming out of the draft, but the fact that he wasn't able to win the featured job these last few years concerns me.

 

[Jason Wood]

No matter what we think of DeAngelo Williams, the Panthers have been reluctant to use him as a main ball carrier; going to far as to keep DeShaun Foster an offseason ago with the transition tag of all things. Although I still think D.W. could flourish if given a full workload, I would be hard pressed to bet that the Panthers are eager to use him that way. Hopefully D.W. will go later in fantasy drafts as a result, thus offering value if he surprises to the upside.

 

[gianmarco]

No matter what we think of DeAngelo Williams, the Panthers have been reluctant to use him as a main ball carrier; going to far as to keep DeShaun Foster an offseason ago with the transition tag of all things. Although I still think D.W. could flourish if given a full workload, I would be hard pressed to bet that the Panthers are eager to use him that way. Hopefully D.W. will go later in fantasy drafts as a result, thus offering value if he surprises to the upside.

The thing is, we were saying the same thing 3 yrs ago when it was Foster there behind S. Davis. Foster outperformed him on the field, yet Davis remained the main ball carrier. I really think there is a tendency of Fox to prefer vets over rookies/younger players. This year will be very telling whether or not Carolina thinks he can't handle the load or whether it seems that Fox truly does keep young RB's from starting right away. I would also recommend looking at William's game logs near the end of 2007. His carries increased significantly and suggest that they do think he can handle the load and he did quite well with the opportunity. He had almost half of his carries on the year in 4 of the last 5 games of the year.

 

[Tau837]

Let's look at the Panthers under Fox:

2002 - 452/1586/11 rushing; Lamar Smith led with 208/737/7 (3.5 ypc); team was 7-9

2003 - 522/2091/9 rushing; Stephen Davis led with 318/1444/8 (4.5 ypc); team was 11-5 and lost in the Super Bowl

2004 - 422/1582/10 rushing; Goings led with 217/821/6 (3.8 ypc); team was 7-9; team rushing attempts down because both Davis (#1 on depth chart) and Foster (#2) were hurt early, and combined for only 83 rushing attempts

2005 - 487/1679/17 rushing; Foster led with 205/879/2 (4.3 ypc); team was 11-5 and lost in the NFC championship

2006 - 423/1659/7 rushing; Foster led with 227/897/3 (4.0 ypc); team was 8-8

2007 - 451/1824/7 rushing; Foster led with 247/873/3 (3.5 ypc); team was 7-9; QB carousel definitely hurt running game production

I think Fox definitely prefers to run a lot, and the two seasons in which the team was successful were the two best seasons for his running game. So the desire and offensive philosophy are there IMO.

As of now, here are the RBs on the Panthers besides Williams:

- Labrandon Toefield - 13 carries last year in JAX, 163 career carries in 45 games

- Goings - 30 years old, 0 carries last year and only 48 carries since 2004

- Alex Haynes - 3 carries last year as a rookie in CAR

- FB Brad Hoover - FB, turns 32 in November, only 12 carries last year and 44 carries since 2004

Meanwhile, Williams had 144 carries last season and averaged 5.0 ypc. So the only threat to Williams' rushing attempts at this point is a rookie. Given Fox's past tendencies to favor the veteran RB over the younger RB (Davis over Foster, Foster over Williams), it seems unlikely that a rookie will unseat Williams as Fox's lead RB, unless the Panthers draft McFadden, Mendenhall, or Stewart, which seems unlikely.

So IMO Williams is clearly the lead RB for the Panthers this season. Fox's lead RB has never had less than 205 carries, even though that often meant giving that many carries to RBs who were averaging 3.8 ypc or less. So it is safe to assume that he won't see fewer than 205 carries... but he could easily see more. Foster averaged 237 the past couple of seasons even though he gave up an average of 133 carries per season to Williams.

How about the passing game? Williams has shown very good ability there, with 56/488/2 receiving (8.7 ypr) in 29 career games. Those other RBs on the roster right now combined for 13 catches last season... none seem to be a threat to replace Williams in a third down RB role.

And that receiving production for Williams was with Foster getting 57/341/1 over the same span (the last two seasons). Between them, they had 113/829/3 in the past 2 seasons, so it is possible there could be 45-50 catches available for the lead RB.

What does all of this mean? Assuming the Panthers do not draft one of the big 3 RBs, I think it is reasonably conservative to project Williams with 240 carries and 45 catches. At 4.4 ypc and 7.5 ypr, that is roughly 1400 total yards, and I'd expect 6+ TDs if he gets those touches. 1400/6 was good enough for RB12 last year (FBG scoring), but I think those are conservative numbers with upside... he could get more carries and his career ypc (4.6) and ypr (8.7) are higher.

Williams = value unless the Panthers draft one of the big 3 rookie RBs.

 

[gianmarco]

Let's look at the Panthers under Fox:2002 - 452/1586/11 rushing; Lamar Smith led with 208/737/7 (3.5 ypc); team was 7-92003 - 522/2091/9 rushing; Stephen Davis led with 318/1444/8 (4.5 ypc); team was 11-5 and lost in the Super Bowl2004 - 422/1582/10 rushing; Goings led with 217/821/6 (3.8 ypc); team was 7-9; team rushing attempts down because both Davis (#1 on depth chart) and Foster (#2) were hurt early, and combined for only 83 rushing attempts2005 - 487/1679/17 rushing; Foster led with 205/879/2 (4.3 ypc); team was 11-5 and lost in the NFC championship2006 - 423/1659/7 rushing; Foster led with 227/897/3 (4.0 ypc); team was 8-82007 - 451/1824/7 rushing; Foster led with 247/873/3 (3.5 ypc); team was 7-9; QB carousel definitely hurt running game productionI think Fox definitely prefers to run a lot, and the two seasons in which the team was successful were the two best seasons for his running game. So the desire and offensive philosophy are there IMO.As of now, here are the RBs on the Panthers besides Williams:- Labrandon Toefield - 13 carries last year in JAX, 163 career carries in 45 games- Goings - 30 years old, 0 carries last year and only 48 carries since 2004- Alex Haynes - 3 carries last year as a rookie in CAR- FB Brad Hoover - FB, turns 32 in November, only 12 carries last year and 44 carries since 2004Meanwhile, Williams had 144 carries last season and averaged 5.0 ypc. So the only threat to Williams' rushing attempts at this point is a rookie. Given Fox's past tendencies to favor the veteran RB over the younger RB (Davis over Foster, Foster over Williams), it seems unlikely that a rookie will unseat Williams as Fox's lead RB, unless the Panthers draft McFadden, Mendenhall, or Stewart, which seems unlikely.So IMO Williams is clearly the lead RB for the Panthers this season. Fox's lead RB has never had less than 205 carries, even though that often meant giving that many carries to RBs who were averaging 3.8 ypc or less. So it is safe to assume that he won't see fewer than 205 carries... but he could easily see more. Foster averaged 237 the past couple of seasons even though he gave up an average of 133 carries per season to Williams.How about the passing game? Williams has shown very good ability there, with 56/488/2 receiving (8.7 ypr) in 29 career games. Those other RBs on the roster right now combined for 13 catches last season... none seem to be a threat to replace Williams in a third down RB role.And that receiving production for Williams was with Foster getting 57/341/1 over the same span (the last two seasons). Between them, they had 113/829/3 in the past 2 seasons, so it is possible there could be 45-50 catches available for the lead RB.What does all of this mean? Assuming the Panthers do not draft one of the big 3 RBs, I think it is reasonably conservative to project Williams with 240 carries and 45 catches. At 4.4 ypc and 7.5 ypr, that is roughly 1400 total yards, and I'd expect 6+ TDs if he gets those touches. 1400/6 was good enough for RB12 last year (FBG scoring), but I think those are conservative numbers with upside... he could get more carries and his career ypc (4.6) and ypr (8.7) are higher.Williams = value unless the Panthers draft one of the big 3 rookie RBs.

and i don't even like Williams that much...