Michael Turner will be a 1,000 yard back this season (1 Viewer)

[wannabee]

Since you watch them every week, would you also say that Tomlinson is the gifted, natural runner, while Turner is the straight ahead hit the hole with a bang type? Definitely favorable for a fresh guy playing a tired defense.

Tomlinson has better moves and better top end speed (although Turner is faster than he looks). Tomlinson is the better open-field runner for sure.Turner has more power and probably better balance (although LT has better power and balance than some might think). He is more of a straight-line runner, however, with less ability to make people miss.

Both have very good run vision. Both have good acceleration.

Overall, I would say they have different styles but similar effectiveness as runners. Tomlinson is the better back overall because of his receiving ability and versatility. He can run inside or outside, while Turner is much more a between-the-tackles type of runner. Tomlinson therefore presents more problems for defensive coordinators to try to gameplan against.

I think Turner could be effective as a starter, but the offense as a whole would be more limited.

Turner reminds me a lot of LaMont Jordan.

Thats who I was thinking about with the second half heroics and fantasy dreams.

Here's a clip of Turner's 2005 highlights (and keep in mind that he only carried the ball 57 times, so the "highlights" comprise about a third of his carries). I think Turner has better speed than Jordan, and he breaks tackles more effectively. But watch for yourself.

I know it is a smal sample size, and with just 1-2 exceptions (one being the long run last on the clip), I noticed a couple of things:Runs designed to go to the left: Turner bounced outside to the left each time

Runs designed to the right: Turner cut back into the middle.

It was almost as though he is/was more comfortable running back to his left. And, often he still had the ball in his right hand even while running left.

The guy could be special. These are just some things I noticed.

 

[mojorizin]

Since you watch them every week, would you also say that Tomlinson is the gifted, natural runner, while Turner is the straight ahead hit the hole with a bang type? Definitely favorable for a fresh guy playing a tired defense.

Tomlinson has better moves and better top end speed (although Turner is faster than he looks). Tomlinson is the better open-field runner for sure.Turner has more power and probably better balance (although LT has better power and balance than some might think). He is more of a straight-line runner, however, with less ability to make people miss.

Both have very good run vision. Both have good acceleration.

Overall, I would say they have different styles but similar effectiveness as runners. Tomlinson is the better back overall because of his receiving ability and versatility. He can run inside or outside, while Turner is much more a between-the-tackles type of runner. Tomlinson therefore presents more problems for defensive coordinators to try to gameplan against.

I think Turner could be effective as a starter, but the offense as a whole would be more limited.

Turner reminds me a lot of LaMont Jordan.

Thats who I was thinking about with the second half heroics and fantasy dreams.

Here's a clip of Turner's 2005 highlights (and keep in mind that he only carried the ball 57 times, so the "highlights" comprise about a third of his carries). I think Turner has better speed than Jordan, and he breaks tackles more effectively. But watch for yourself.

I like the way he appears to "see" the seam. Ok, there were some pretty big seams, but the child runs hard. Didnt mean to liken him to Jordan physically, just the seasons of hearing how great he'd be if he got the chance.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

. . . the child runs hard.

Here's his run against the Bears in the second preseason game this year: running hard.

 

[mojorizin]

. . . the child runs hard.

Here's his run against the Bears in the second preseason game this year: running hard.

A bit like LJ in that he runs "angry". Makes sure he gives as much or more than he gets.

 

[BoltBacker]

My prediction - MT sees enough action to average the necessary 62.5 ypg over the remaining 14 game schedule to reach and perhaps surpass the 1,000 yard mark with around 6-8 TDs.

If he averages 5 yards a carry, which is realistic, he'll have to average 13 carries a game. That's the part that may not be realistic.

Last year SD averaged 29+ rushing attempts per game while playing a brutal schedule. It's well within the realm of possibility they could bump that # up to 33 per game this season with a much easier schedule and a less experienced QB.If LT gets dinged like he has in the past(even last season against the tough schedule he skipped the second half of many games) I actually like Turners chances. Giving Tomlinson 20 carries and getting him more looks in the passing game(like the 6+ catches/game he averaged in '03 for instance) would make a lot of sense and save wear and tear on the franchise player they have locked up to a long term contract already. IMO 26 touches/game for Tomlinson are plenty for him to be an MVP cantidate. SD would be wise to save Tomlinson as the every down RB in the first quarter and second half while using him in passing situations throughout the entire game. Let a fresh Turner use that physical running style to wear down the defenses in the second quarter and rest Tomlinson so he'll be fresh in the second half. Worst case scenario, you give Turner a bunch of opportunities to show people why he's worth giving up draft choices or maybe even players as compensation in a trade. It's a no-lose situation giving Turner extra work throughout the season even if LT is 100% healthy.

 

[el-gato-grande]

What would scare me here is that other than two huge runs by LT and Turner, the Chargers ground attack really hasnt been that impressive against paltry competition. I dont have numbers in front of me, but taking out those two runs (yeah, yeah, I know...) are they averaging 4+ yards a carry?

actually if you just go ahead and throw out all positive gains, the Charger's actually average negative YPC

Sorry, but throwing out this run or that run is a ridiculous notion. That could be argued for almost every player in the league.

I believe Mojo was referring to that with the (yeah, yeah, I know...) part. And while you can't arbitrarily dismiss long runs, and I don't think there's anything wrong with the SD run game, a case can be made that the outliers skew the results. If a guy has runs of 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 90, is that as good as a guy who gets 10 yards on every single carry? Point being, those huge gains are great when they happen, but aren't as reliable as the guy who always puts up the numbers regularly.

I dont care about for a starter, as long as I score fantasy points. It does have some affect on a backup when deciding whether he runs for 60-65 yards per game. All those time you started Tatum Bell last year hoping for what? 100 yards? Hell no, you hoped hed break a 60+ yard TD again. Without those his numbers wouldnt be impressive enough to start for you.

Great, explosive running backs have high YPC (4.5+) averages for a reason. I've never understood the reasoning behind this take.

I think it DOES depend how they got there particularly if its a guy only getting the ball 5 times per game. If there are 6, 10, 15 yards runs in there its one thing, if its Trung Canidate running into the line 9 times for no gain, then busting one for 50, its a big difference. I think thats why we DONT see "explosive" guys like Bell as the entrenched starter after 3 seasons. Look at Charlie Garner. Guy was scary fast and popped the long one on occasion, but down to down was barely average. Long career, very little starting.To me, yeah, it makes a difference.

The ypc numbers of a lot of backups are huge as well, but it doesnt mean they are great players.

This discussion is slightly ironic in this particular context since Tomlinson is the more explosive runner of the two while Turner is probably more consistent at grinding out positive yardage. The stats may not bear that out so far since Turner has broken the longer run, but that's a consequence of small sample size.

Since you watch them every week, would you also say that Tomlinson is the gifted, natural runner, while Turner is the straight ahead hit the hole with a bang type? Definitely favorable for a fresh guy playing a tired defense. Until I see him consistently facing the jaws of a fired up defense in the first and second quarter, I'll consider him with the same skepticism as every backup the board gets stars in our eyes about "Man, if only they'd let him START he'd be HUGE!" Still think the Bolts blowing everyone out and getting this guy a load of opportunities is a ways off.

I don't think the Chargers need to blow out other teams for Turner to see a fair amount of carries. The Chargers will be running the ball a lot even in close games. The only time they might go away from it is if they get behind, but they have a solid D and I don't see them getting blown out of many games. Plus, they still use the RB in pass plays.LT has been dinged up towards the end of the last two seasons. I can't imagine Marty is lost on that. I see Turner doing more than clean-up in blowouts.

Ding...ding..ding. We have a winner. Yes, this and the Chargers look to be playing an easier schedule than last year, they understand what they have in Turner now and trust him more, and their Defense will put them in situations where they will want to run the ball to control the clock.

 

[sterjs]

What would scare me here is that other than two huge runs by LT and Turner, the Chargers ground attack really hasnt been that impressive against paltry competition. I dont have numbers in front of me, but taking out those two runs (yeah, yeah, I know...) are they averaging 4+ yards a carry?

A better way to settle issues like that is to look at Success Rate:http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb.php

Michael Turner's success rate is 48%, which is 12th overall.

LaDainian Tomlinson's success rate is 46%, which is 18th overall.

"Success Rate. This number represents the player's consistency, measured by successful running plays (the definition of success being different based on down and distance) divided by total running plays."

 

[Biabreakable]

I think El-gato is on to somthing here. And there is a decent possibility of Turner reaching this bench mark in a few different ways.

While I don't see LT ever being reduced to RBBC by Turner this is Marty Coaching here. And he could continue running this offense by giving LT and Turner combined carries of around 40/game. Right now SD is averaging 42.5/game. It will be hard for SD to give the Rbs that many carries against good run defenses and/or potent offenses that could force Marty to throw more than he may like. But Marty has done this before using 2 Rbs and keeping the offense effective but conservative in Cleveland, KC and Washington.

San Diego's defense looks good enough to be able to support this much of the time as well. I realise that SD has played against 2 poor teams so far.. but they have also been very dominant doing so.

The schedule coming out of the bye:

Oct 1 @Baltimore

Oct 8 Pittsburgh

Oct 15 @San Francisco

Oct 22 @Kansas City

Oct 29 St. Louis

Nov 5 Cleveland

Nov 12 @Cincinnati

Nov 19 @Denver

Nov 26 Oakland

Dec 3 @Buffalo

Dec 10 Denver

Dec 17 Kansas City

Dec 24 @Seattle

Dec 31 Arizona

The games I bolded look like matchups that may force SD to throw the ball more. Because of the defenses they face or because of the potency of the offenses. But even in those games I can see SD being able to run the ball 30 some times if they do not fall far behind in the score. The other 8 could be close to 40 if Marty does not choose to turn Rivers loose.

So while both Rbs are healthy there is no way LT will not be the lead back.. but there are a significant number of carries that could be had by Turner in a COP role. Ultimatly I think Turner will fall a bit short of 1k unless SD has won enough games for them to sit LT later in the season. But even so Turner could end up with 800 yards or so even in COP role.

SD rushing offense doesen't look as capable of producing rushing numbers up to what KC was with Priest/LJ but it may not be that far behind if Marty sticks with the run like this all year.

While Turner does not have the same opportunity to take the starting role like Maroney or DeAngelo it is starting to look like he may be an similar option for FF players. Maybe.

Good call El-Gato.

 

[el-gato-grande]

Turner is not ranked in the top 40 backs by FBG this week. Big mistake.

I think the Chargers will have a rough go with Baltimore, but Turner will definately get enough opportunities to perform better than some of the backs ranked ahead of him. Ye of little faith Footballguys. I may have to revoke some of your bandwagon passes.

 

[el-gato-grande]

Just taking a checkpoint. After four games, Turner has 41/277 (6.8 ypc). At that pace, he will rush for over 1,100 yards. And that is after a couple of the toughest games on their schedule from a run defense standpoint (Baltimore and Pittsburgh). I think we can also put the notion to bed that Turner will only get significant carries in "blow out" games.

Take my advice and start the Burner if you got him next week at San Francisco. The 49ers rank 24th against the run giving up an average of 4.6 yards per carry. I'm predicting he breaks a big one and posts triple digit yards rushing for the second time this season.

 

[LivingTheDream]

Just taking a checkpoint. After four games, Turner has 41/277 (6.8 ypc). At that pace, he will rush for over 1,100 yards. And that is after a couple of the toughest games on their schedule from a run defense standpoint (Baltimore and Pittsburgh). I think we can also put the notion to bed that Turner will only get significant carries in "blow out" games. Take my advice and start the Burner if you got him next week at San Francisco. The 49ers rank 24th against the run giving up an average of 4.6 yards per carry. I'm predicting he breaks a big one and posts triple digit yards rushing for the second time this season.

Turner is a horse!Where would you rate him in backs for this week? Not a WDIS, but if you had a guy like a Thomas Jones-would you play Turner? (if you have tomlinson also)

 

[Ilov80s]

Since you watch them every week, would you also say that Tomlinson is the gifted, natural runner, while Turner is the straight ahead hit the hole with a bang type? Definitely favorable for a fresh guy playing a tired defense.

Tomlinson has better moves and better top end speed (although Turner is faster than he looks). Tomlinson is the better open-field runner for sure.Turner has more power and probably better balance (although LT has better power and balance than some might think). He is more of a straight-line runner, however, with less ability to make people miss.

Both have very good run vision. Both have good acceleration.

Overall, I would say they have different styles but similar effectiveness as runners. Tomlinson is the better back overall because of his receiving ability and versatility. He can run inside or outside, while Turner is much more a between-the-tackles type of runner. Tomlinson therefore presents more problems for defensive coordinators to try to gameplan against.

I think Turner could be effective as a starter, but the offense as a whole would be more limited.

Turner reminds me a lot of LaMont Jordan.

Thats who I was thinking about with the second half heroics and fantasy dreams.

Here's a clip of Turner's 2005 highlights (and keep in mind that he only carried the ball 57 times, so the "highlights" comprise about a third of his carries). I think Turner has better speed than Jordan, and he breaks tackles more effectively. But watch for yourself.

LT 05You will see 2 things here:

- LT is the man and will still be a top 3 back

- Neal is wrecking ball at FB.

If the Chargers would smart they would look to work LT more into the passing game. Turner 15 carries, LT 20 carries/5 receptions. LT with 25 touches= stud.

 

[el-gato-grande]

Just taking a checkpoint. After four games, Turner has 41/277 (6.8 ypc). At that pace, he will rush for over 1,100 yards. And that is after a couple of the toughest games on their schedule from a run defense standpoint (Baltimore and Pittsburgh). I think we can also put the notion to bed that Turner will only get significant carries in "blow out" games. Take my advice and start the Burner if you got him next week at San Francisco. The 49ers rank 24th against the run giving up an average of 4.6 yards per carry. I'm predicting he breaks a big one and posts triple digit yards rushing for the second time this season.

Turner is a horse!Where would you rate him in backs for this week? Not a WDIS, but if you had a guy like a Thomas Jones-would you play Turner? (if you have tomlinson also)

A guy like Thomas Jones? It is a WDIS, but I will field it anyway. The Cardinals defense was stout against Larry Johnson, but don't let that game fool you. KC was missing some keys guys on their offensive line. The Cards for the year are giving up 4.3 ypc. So start Thomas Jones. He will get more yards (not too many more), but I think he will also score more TDs for you.For the record, I would start Turner over these backs this week (excluding guys on bye like Addai, Taylor, Jones-Drew, Ahman Green, etc.)eshaun Foster vs Ravens (Raven have #1 rushing Def)Edgerrin James vs Bears (ugly, ugly)Frank Gore vs Chargers (the guy has done very little gainst quality defenses)Reggie Bush vs EaglesMo Morris vs Rams (not a bad match-up but Morris is horrible)Kevin BarlowCedric Benson...