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Michael Vick (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Darcimer
- Start date
Punchie
Footballguy
why not?
IGKYA!!!
Footballguy
Yeah I guess it's not that strange. He is 8th in FFpts using FBG standard scoring rules, although I'm not quite sure what they are... But with his projections and my scoring system, he gets dropped down to 24th. Probably due to the passing yards...
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dgreen
Footballguy
Vick has been QB3, QB10, and QB10 in his three best seasons and he missed a game in each of those seasons.
Palmer could be moving up depending on how he looks in the final two preseason games. His lower rankings are mainly due to the possibility of missing games and questions about his affectiveness after the injury.
Favre is pretty clearly on his way down in most people's eyes and Vick is definitely a better pick right now.
Plummer? Meh. Cutler could be starting by week 10.
Palmer could be moving up depending on how he looks in the final two preseason games. His lower rankings are mainly due to the possibility of missing games and questions about his affectiveness after the injury.
Favre is pretty clearly on his way down in most people's eyes and Vick is definitely a better pick right now.
Plummer? Meh. Cutler could be starting by week 10.
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I'm usually pretty down on Vick but I could see myself drafting him for the first time this year. His hype may have finally cooled off to the point that he actually seems undervalued now at ADP = QB12, especially if your scoring weighs rushing TDs higher than passing.
advantages:
+ one more year of experience to improve as a passer
+ healthy; should continue to run A LOT
+ Duckett gone, removing a significant goal line weapon from last year's equation
+ Lelie gives him another weapon to throw to
+ last but not least, he plays New Orleans twice
advantages:
+ one more year of experience to improve as a passer
+ healthy; should continue to run A LOT
+ Duckett gone, removing a significant goal line weapon from last year's equation
+ Lelie gives him another weapon to throw to
+ last but not least, he plays New Orleans twice
Spartans Rule
Footballguy
The QBs are all so closely packed this year that even slight changes have a huge impact.
I gave Vick one additional passing TD and one rushing TD in my projections, assuming that he'll touch the ball more around the goal line, and he shot up from 10th to 2nd in my QB rankings.
I gave Vick one additional passing TD and one rushing TD in my projections, assuming that he'll touch the ball more around the goal line, and he shot up from 10th to 2nd in my QB rankings.
Drop
Footballguy
I don't get why Palmer is ranked so low compared to other QBs. In most leagues you can get good production from waiver wire QBs by playing matchups. Towards the end of the season there is a good chance that Palmer will be the consistent heavyweight that most expect when healthy. Meaning in the playoffs of your fantasy football league he'll be going to around 300 yds and multiple TDs.
The rankings are done based on yearly projections, but a more accurate picture would be rankings based on per game projections for healthy players. By healthy I mean shaking off the rust of injury. In Palmer's case, once he does that he's going to continue improving because he's young and learning. Just because he's ahead of the curve and an elite QB already we seem to assume that he'll plateau.
I guess if you do projections and take into consideration that Palmer may miss some games early as a precaution, he won't be at the top of the list but it terms of your fantasy team, but don't count the games that he'll miss as 0 points. Consider the difference between him and a starter that you can get late in the draft with a favorable early schedule then add those numbers to your projections when ranking him amongst the other QBs. The games that he'll have when he's healthy late in the season will be so valuable to your team.
QBs shouldn't come off the board that early anyways, especially in leagues that start 1 QB. Most people don't think this through and you'll see his avg rating around QB #5. I suggest drafting your RBs & WRs early then grabbing Palmer as a round or so above where you think he'll go(so you can get him for sure), then don't worry about the QB position until late in the draft. (this will allow you to get better overall talent at positions that you can't fill via waivers/late picks.) You'll be able to find favorable schedules, and chances are that you'll probably be able to start Palmer right away.
You don't want to be the guy who takes anyone over him not named Peyton Manning (who is not a good pick early in most leagues anyways). You want to capitalize on the mistake everyone is making by not ranking him correctly in terms of winning you the league. The QB position is so overrated in fantasy football because the difference in the top 10 QBs is so minute compared to other positions and matchups/SOS can be manipulated by savy owners every week for good results.
You want Palmers consistently down the stretch, you don't him dropping big numbers against you. Or you can take Vick, if you like weekly crapshoots as apposed to strategy.
The rankings are done based on yearly projections, but a more accurate picture would be rankings based on per game projections for healthy players. By healthy I mean shaking off the rust of injury. In Palmer's case, once he does that he's going to continue improving because he's young and learning. Just because he's ahead of the curve and an elite QB already we seem to assume that he'll plateau.
I guess if you do projections and take into consideration that Palmer may miss some games early as a precaution, he won't be at the top of the list but it terms of your fantasy team, but don't count the games that he'll miss as 0 points. Consider the difference between him and a starter that you can get late in the draft with a favorable early schedule then add those numbers to your projections when ranking him amongst the other QBs. The games that he'll have when he's healthy late in the season will be so valuable to your team.
QBs shouldn't come off the board that early anyways, especially in leagues that start 1 QB. Most people don't think this through and you'll see his avg rating around QB #5. I suggest drafting your RBs & WRs early then grabbing Palmer as a round or so above where you think he'll go(so you can get him for sure), then don't worry about the QB position until late in the draft. (this will allow you to get better overall talent at positions that you can't fill via waivers/late picks.) You'll be able to find favorable schedules, and chances are that you'll probably be able to start Palmer right away.
You don't want to be the guy who takes anyone over him not named Peyton Manning (who is not a good pick early in most leagues anyways). You want to capitalize on the mistake everyone is making by not ranking him correctly in terms of winning you the league. The QB position is so overrated in fantasy football because the difference in the top 10 QBs is so minute compared to other positions and matchups/SOS can be manipulated by savy owners every week for good results.
You want Palmers consistently down the stretch, you don't him dropping big numbers against you. Or you can take Vick, if you like weekly crapshoots as apposed to strategy.
They play:Carolina twice
Tampa twice
Pittsburgh
N.Y. Giants
Baltimore
Dallas
Philly
Washington
Pretty Nasty schedule, but at least you have New Orleans twice.
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
Yudkin crunched some numbers that showed Vick in the top 5 last year, if he had 20 more yards passing per game. This year, he could do that. Lelie doesn't hurt.
He could also throw 20 less per game just as easily.
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
Just replying to the question posted. Dodds' ranking is not some stretch, as was implied.He could also throw 20 less per game just as easily.
Not a stretch at all. He could easily be top 5 this year. Without Duckett, there will be more bootlegs in the redzone, a few more passes to Crumpler on the Goaline. It's just that the schedule is so bad for the Falcons that I have my doubts, and also my own bias against him.Just replying to the question posted. Dodds' ranking is not some stretch, as was implied.He could also throw 20 less per game just as easily.
Tau837
Footballguy
Tough playoff schedule:week 14 - @Tampa
week 15 - Dallas
week 16 - Carolina
That does temper my enthusiasm for him slightly... but I do think he is a value pick at current ADP.
Get this, I got him with the last pick of the 11th round in a 12 teamer. Tough league too. Think I got value?
No. No he could not. The only way Cutler even gets a SNIFF of the starting lineup this year is if Plummer is injured. Take it to the bank.
The Duff Man
Footballguy
Re: Tampa and Carolina twice
Vs Tampa last year
Home 306 yrds passing, 2 TDs, 17 yrds rushing
Road 161 yrds passing, 2 TDs, 63 yrds rushing
Vs Car last year
Home 117 yrds passing, 0 TDs, 0 yrds rushing - he did publically admit to mailing this one in, Week 17
Road 171 yards passing, 0 TDs, 27 yrds rushing
Only one of these two teams owned him last year. You can easily get Vick in the 10-15QB range of the draft, and he is probably the only one picked in this range that has a legitimate chance of cracking the top 5.
Most people who are taking their QB1 in this range and turning around and picking another one in the same range. As long as you do this you limit the risk associated with picking Vick, leaving him as an all reward pick.
Vs Tampa last year
Home 306 yrds passing, 2 TDs, 17 yrds rushing
Road 161 yrds passing, 2 TDs, 63 yrds rushing
Vs Car last year
Home 117 yrds passing, 0 TDs, 0 yrds rushing - he did publically admit to mailing this one in, Week 17
Road 171 yards passing, 0 TDs, 27 yrds rushing
Only one of these two teams owned him last year. You can easily get Vick in the 10-15QB range of the draft, and he is probably the only one picked in this range that has a legitimate chance of cracking the top 5.
Most people who are taking their QB1 in this range and turning around and picking another one in the same range. As long as you do this you limit the risk associated with picking Vick, leaving him as an all reward pick.
