Mike McCarthy make the right call going for it (1 Viewer)

[Johnnymac]

3rd down should have been a QB sneak. 4th down, kick the FG.

 

[puckalicious]

The answer is to go for it. Always. Read the following to get the statistical concept, all data is from 2000-2008 regular seasons:

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/4t...udy-part-3.html

At 4th & 1 on the opponent's 1 yd line, there is a 68% chance of getting the TD, and a 98% chance of getting a FG. The "expected points" of a TD is 6.3 pts, and for a FG is 2.3pts. Further, if either attempt is unsuccessful, the resulting field position for the opponent yields a negative .5 expected points for them which is a positive expected .5 pts for us.

Summing it up for the total expected points from the attempt:

TD -

(.68 * 6.3) + ((1-.68) * .5) = 4.44 expected pts

FG -

(.98 * 2.3) + ((1-.98) * .5) = 2.26 expected pts

Almost worth 2x as much to go for the TD.

 

[Werewolf Moderator Fan]

In this situation, I main reason I could've seen for not going for it was b/c the GB O-line was so out-matched. That's a tough thing for a coach have to admit though.

This is even more reason to go for it. If your o-line is outmatched, better to go for it. It will be easier to get "lucky" that one time, than to be consistently lucky for an entire drive.

 

[TitusIII]

The answer is to go for it. Always. Read the following to get the statistical concept, all data is from 2000-2008 regular seasons:

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/4t...udy-part-3.html

At 4th & 1 on the opponent's 1 yd line, there is a 68% chance of getting the TD, and a 98% chance of getting a FG. The "expected points" of a TD is 6.3 pts, and for a FG is 2.3pts. Further, if either attempt is unsuccessful, the resulting field position for the opponent yields a negative .5 expected points for them which is a positive expected .5 pts for us.

Summing it up for the total expected points from the attempt:

TD -

(.68 * 6.3) + ((1-.68) * .5) = 4.44 expected pts

FG -

(.98 * 2.3) + ((1-.98) * .5) = 2.26 expected pts

Almost worth 2x as much to go for the TD.

This is what I was looking for, and it makes perfect sense. Of course, circumstances dictate that coaches can't follow these #'s 100% of the time, but I'd be fairly pissed if my favorite team's coach chooses the risk-averse route a bit too often(which is >5-10% of the time in my book, arbitrary...but oh well). I'm sure many a NFL coach/GM has been using data like this for quite some time, but if my eyes aren't deceiving me, more of them than ever before are using a sabermetrics-esque approach to situations like this.Excellent post!

 

[Arizona Ron]

Always take the points.

 

[zamboni]

It was right to go for it but he should have given the ball to Grant on 2nd, 3rd, and then (if needed) on 4th down. His play calling is atrocious. MM proves yet again he is a terrible coach.

What does the play call have to do with Lee dropping a pass that hit him in the hands? Yeah the play calling wasn't great but shouldn't Lee be held accountable for dropping a catchable ball?

That's about the size of it. If Lee catches the ball like he should have, there's no discussion.

 

[Werewolf Moderator Fan]

59% yes

 

[puckalicious]

Always take the points.

You still have to make the FG. It is not given to you. Statistically the chance to make the FG is better, but the even with the lower % of getting a TD the payoff is greater and worth the risk.If every drive of a game consisted of 1 play from the opponent's 1 yard line, the team that went for the TD every time would come out the winner, on average.

 

[jurb26]

The answer is to go for it. Always. Read the following to get the statistical concept, all data is from 2000-2008 regular seasons:

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/4t...udy-part-3.html

At 4th & 1 on the opponent's 1 yd line, there is a 68% chance of getting the TD, and a 98% chance of getting a FG. The "expected points" of a TD is 6.3 pts, and for a FG is 2.3pts. Further, if either attempt is unsuccessful, the resulting field position for the opponent yields a negative .5 expected points for them which is a positive expected .5 pts for us.

Summing it up for the total expected points from the attempt:

TD -

(.68 * 6.3) + ((1-.68) * .5) = 4.44 expected pts

FG -

(.98 * 2.3) + ((1-.98) * .5) = 2.26 expected pts

Almost worth 2x as much to go for the TD.

@ people who still think they should have kicked the FG.

58.71% for TD vs. 38.54% for FG = thread/

 

[Werewolf Moderator Fan]

If every drive of a game consisted of 1 play from the opponent's 1 yard line, the team that went for the TD every time would come out the winner, on average.

This is a good way of stating it, thanks.

 

[cvnpoka]

There was still three minutes left in the third, of course you take the points. If they had taken a field goal at that point then they would've been driving late in the game for the win instead of needing two scores to tie. The score would be 28- 17. Nelsons TD would make the score 30- 24. GB's final drive ended with a field goal but they could've been in position to win.

You never leave points out on the field when they are there for the taking in the 1st-3rd quarter. You're inevitably always chasing those points later....

really? bc im pretty sure you arent chasing those points when you score a freakin td which a team should do easily often enough.