Mike Sims-Walker, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2010 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Mike Sims-Walker, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

Player Page Link: Mike Sims-Walker Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[pghrob]

This is the 3rd year for the 3rd round pick out of Central Florida. MSW sort of broke out last year and created some early season buzz for himself and then sort of tapered off to mediocrity as defenses keyed in on him. He finished 2009 with 63 receptions on 111 targets for 869 yards and 7 tds.

The Jags still need to find a complement to him on the other side to give him some relief. The running game is solid with MJD and Garrard is saying all the right things in terms of trying to elevate his QB this season.

Carolina Steve Smith impersonator Mike Thomas is the other WR who is looking to emerge as the needed complement in to MSW this year. My guess is Thomas gets n the range of 50-60 rec. this year. The TE crew in Jax is nothing special to write home about but if needed to they can be counted on to be pass catchers when necessary. Combined TE rec. should also approach 50 - 60.

All in all, the Jax offense should produce marginally better passing numbers this year, but make no mistake, they are not going to be anything close to an elite passing team. They are a run first team. That bodes well for them posting respectable, but not great passing stats.

MSW projections: 75 receptions for 1050 yards and 9 tds.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

MSW looked great as he broke out early last year, then faded fast and seriously hurt teams that counted on him down the stretch. He is a bit of an emigna.

Has he been "figured out", or did he hit a sophomore wall? Maybe he just needed the offseason to rejuvinate?

I undervalue him at the moment only because I don't have enough insight yet. I am hoping some JAX homers can enlighten.

Right now, I am guessing 65/800/7 for MSW.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

MSW looked great as he broke out early last year, then faded fast and seriously hurt teams that counted on him down the stretch. He is a bit of an emigna.Has he been "figured out", or did he hit a sophomore wall? Maybe he just needed the offseason to rejuvinate?I undervalue him at the moment only because I don't have enough insight yet. I am hoping some JAX homers can enlighten. Right now, I am guessing 65/800/7 for MSW.

Sims-Walker was banged up down the stretch, that more than anything caused his decline.

 

[fightingillini]

Sims Walker has a lot of talent, but is held back with the inconsistency of Garrard and the JAX run first game plan. He could jump into the top 15WR, but a lack of TDs (MJD gets all the goalline love), and no proven wideout on the other side will set him back a bit. OK #2WR, a great #3WR.

73 rec, 1000 yds, 6 TD

 

[JaxBill]

This is the 3rd year for the 3rd round pick out of Central Florida. MSW sort of broke out last year and created some early season buzz for himself and then sort of tapered off to mediocrity as defenses keyed in on him. He finished 2009 with 63 receptions on 111 targets for 869 yards and 7 tds.The Jags still need to find a complement to him on the other side to give him some relief. The running game is solid with MJD and Garrard is saying all the right things in terms of trying to elevate his QB this season.Carolina Steve Smith impersonator Mike Thomas is the other WR who is looking to emerge as the needed complement in to MSW this year. My guess is Thomas gets n the range of 50-60 rec. this year. The TE crew in Jax is nothing special to write home about but if needed to they can be counted on to be pass catchers when necessary. Combined TE rec. should also approach 50 - 60.All in all, the Jax offense should produce marginally better passing numbers this year, but make no mistake, they are not going to be anything close to an elite passing team. They are a run first team. That bodes well for them posting respectable, but not great passing stats.MSW projections: 75 receptions for 1050 yards and 9 tds.

Technically speaking, last year was his third year. 2007 was lost totally to injury. 2008 he had another knee problem including infection plus personal issues regarding the shooting death of a close friend. Last year was his breakout year but also the first time he was totally healthy.

 

[brownhelmets]

It appears as if his health is the primary thing slowing him down. I had him a good chunck of last season. I like his combination of size, speed and athletic ability.

I like him around this area, which isn't too far off some of the other projections:

75/1000/7

 

[karmarooster]

MSW looked great as he broke out early last year, then faded fast and seriously hurt teams that counted on him down the stretch. He is a bit of an emigna.

Has he been "figured out", or did he hit a sophomore wall? Maybe he just needed the offseason to rejuvinate?

I undervalue him at the moment only because I don't have enough insight yet. I am hoping some JAX homers can enlighten.

Right now, I am guessing 65/800/7 for MSW.

Last year MSW missed 2 games - week 1 when he wasn't a starter, and week 5 when he was suspended for curfew violation. Even considering the slump he suffered in the second half of the season, he played well on a points per game basis... about WR17 in PPR. Prorate his stats for 2 more starts and you get 72 catches for 993 yards. This year he goes into the offseason as the unquestioned number 1 WR, and he'll get the reps that going along with the title. He should connect with Garrard early and often, provided Garrard can be accurate (always an IF). There's reason to believe he'll improve and won't post as many stinkers as he did last year (he had 5 total last year).

You should be thankful that 1.) he missed two games and 2.) he disappeared in a few others. It will keep his value low and you can scoop him up as a difference maker WR3 that can post borderline WR1/2 numbers when he's hot.

Projection: last year, pro-rated to 16 games, plus a 10% improvement based on WR1 reps in camp.

79 catches, 1,090 yards, 9 TDs.... roughly WR12 in PPR based on last year's numbers.

 

[Wadsworth]

The key question with MSW is if the late season dip in production was due to injury or problems dealing with teams focusing more on him once he was clearly established as the Jags WR1. Considering his history of injury issues either isn't a promising option. In 2010 I expect Mike to flirt with 75 catches and 1,000 yards, which isn't bad at all but I think he'll get the lion's share of his production in a handful of games and end up a weak start for at least half is games. His end of year production should grade him out as a decent WR2, but the boom/bust nature of that production will likely leave some owners disappointed if they reach too high to draft him or have higher expectations.

That's my early June take for what it's worth. Mike is basically in a contract year and seems focused this off season. He has the ability to make the next step and become a true fantasy WR1, but that will be difficult to do with Garrard and Del Rio still in the picture.

 

[Creed Bratton]

I agree with some of the previous posters who said that he could be a pretty good value play. This is a guy that i've been high on for the last couple years, and has pretty good size and speed for a wide receiver and looks to have pretty good hands. With so few options in jacksonville, he's going to be productive because there's nobody else there that they can count on. But I think that also may limit his upside a bit. I don't think that he's going to crack fantasy WR1 status unless he catches a lot of breaks. However, he makes a pretty solid fantasy WR2 who you might be able to draft as a WR3. Owners out there might be worried he's a flash in the pan, but i strongly believe he's a legitimately talented receiver.

His value might be depressed because his numbers last season weren't eye-popping from him not playing a couple of games due to the coaching staff, getting banged up down the stretch, and the jags o-line having issues last season. He was overshadowed by the bigger breakout stars last season like sidney rice and miles austin who looked like better physical talents. That combined with his injury history should make him a value play, especially in PPR leagues. I think he could have as many as 90-95 receptions next season. Though, I don't see him averaging more than 14 yards a catch in that offense.

85 receptions for 1150 yards and 7 touchdowns.

 

[Bayhawks]

Sims-Walker averaged 7.4 targets/game last year (counting week 1, before he "broke out" & had only 1 target). He averaged about 8 targets/game after week 1. With very few receiving options in Jax, I could see that increasing some, maybe to 9 targets/game. That would total 144 targets for the year.

Sims-Walker caught 56.8% of his targets last year. If he maintains that percentage, he would catch 81-82 balls.

Sims-Walker's Y/R average last year was 13.79. I wouldn't expect that to go up much in Jax's offense, but I also don't see it dropping drastically either. Let's say 13.5 Y/R.

Sims-Walker scored 1 TD for every 9 receptions last year. That's a lower average than the big boys like Moss or Fitzgerald, but I'd still drop it to 1 TD every 10 receptions.

So, projections (and I'd consider these his floor, barring injury):

144 targets, 82 receptions, 1107 yards, 8 TDs.

A good WR2 (especially considering when you can get him), or a great WR3.

 

[Thomsen]

Pretty much agree on most that has been said, but I would be a bit wary of having him as my WR2. I love the guy, but he can't stay healthy. I would love him as my WR3, where his inconsistency won't mean as much. I like him to catch around 75 balls for 1050 yards, 6 TDs.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

144 targets, 82 receptions, 1107 yards, 8 TDs.A good WR2 (especially considering when you can get him), or a great WR3.

This would have made MSW the #12 WR in my non-PPR league last year, so yeah, I would say that would make him a good WR2 or a great WR3. (of course, it would be nearly impossible to get him as your WR3 if everyone expects these stats)

 

[Bayhawks]

144 targets, 82 receptions, 1107 yards, 8 TDs.A good WR2 (especially considering when you can get him), or a great WR3.

This would have made MSW the #12 WR in my non-PPR league last year, so yeah, I would say that would make him a good WR2 or a great WR3. (of course, it would be nearly impossible to get him as your WR3 if everyone expects these stats)

Agreed, but not everyone expects those stats. There are a number of negative factors to Sims-Walker, and based on what I've seen, read, and heard, those negatives are preventing him from being thought of as a top WR.Negatives:>Del Rio is his HC>Garrard is his QB>No other real threat at WRs for defenses to focus on>Injury history>Slide at the end of last seasonI personally don't think Del Rio is a great coach or Garrard is a great QB, but MSW should be the #1 WR for Jax going into the season this year, and I didn't predict a huge jump in his production, I merely predicted him to stay at (or slightly above) his play last year over the course of a full season.

 

[kremenull]

Two words to motivate any serious athlete.......Contract Year.

MSW is a talented, and still young player who gained valuable experience last season and is primed for a very nice year, IMO. He's quite gifted and skilled yet not on the elite level, but I believe he has the right mental makeup and work ethic to be able to take his game to another level from last year. If another weapon or two can step up and be fairly productive to relieve some of the attention that MSW will garner from defenses, I expect a true breakout season in 2010.

84 rec

1210 yds

14.4 ypc

8 TDs

Great value selection in redrafts as well as dynasty leagues.

 

[Littlegiant]

I am definitely targeting him as my WR3 this year, and hoping he produces like a WR2. If he can stay healthy and Mike Thomas can emerge as a threat, I can see MSW really building on last year. There is risk with every player, some more than others, and the risk here is moderate. As long as you are not counting on him to be your WR1 or WR2, he is absolutely worth the risk.

(Healthy) 81/1100/7

 

[greggorymac]

I think the problem here is consistency. At the end of the year his stats may look decent, but you never know what you're going to get game to game. That's not a slant on MSW, but more the JAX offense. They were absolutely putrid on the road and I don't really see that changing this season. So expect some big games from him and a handful of stinkers. You won't receive a consistent product from him, so it depends on what you covet more (boom/bust week to week, or lower ceiling but consistent). The cat is out of the bag (so to speak) on MSW so those targeting him as their WR3 will be out of luck. You will have to pay a WR2 price to get him this year.

 

[Creed Bratton]

I think the problem here is consistency. At the end of the year his stats may look decent, but you never know what you're going to get game to game. That's not a slant on MSW, but more the JAX offense. They were absolutely putrid on the road and I don't really see that changing this season. So expect some big games from him and a handful of stinkers. You won't receive a consistent product from him, so it depends on what you covet more (boom/bust week to week, or lower ceiling but consistent). The cat is out of the bag (so to speak) on MSW so those targeting him as their WR3 will be out of luck. You will have to pay a WR2 price to get him this year.

I think you might be underestimating how inconsistent the wide receiver position is as a whole. Very few receivers are actually consistent on a week to week basis. In the last three years only Larry Fitzgerald and Wes Welker have been consistent performers week to week for multiple years, I believe. I also think that week to week consistency can depend on scoring format and touchdowns do play a big role in getting that bump from a poor to decent week or decent to great week. And top ten touchdown wide receivers are pretty fickle on a year to year basis.In fact, I think that receivers who have more targets and catch more passes like Sims-Walker are more likely to be consistent rather than players with a few targets and relatively less receptions.

 

[T with T]

85-1200-10

solid 1/2 wr and has top 10 wr potential..... he could score 8-10 tds easy if They go to him 150 targets

 

[xenon]

I am definitely targeting him as my WR3 this year, and hoping he produces like a WR2. If he can stay healthy and Mike Thomas can emerge as a threat, I can see MSW really building on last year. There is risk with every player, some more than others, and the risk here is moderate. As long as you are not counting on him to be your WR1 or WR2, he is absolutely worth the risk.(Healthy) 81/1100/7

I agree fully. As an MJD owner last year, I watched a lot of JAX football and put him on my radar for re-draft 2010 season. Along that line, how would one compare him to Dwayne Bowe and who would you rather have and why?

 

[cowpie]

Sims-Walker averaged 7.4 targets/game last year (counting week 1, before he "broke out" & had only 1 target). He averaged about 8 targets/game after week 1. With very few receiving options in Jax, I could see that increasing some, maybe to 9 targets/game. That would total 144 targets for the year.Sims-Walker caught 56.8% of his targets last year. If he maintains that percentage, he would catch 81-82 balls.Sims-Walker's Y/R average last year was 13.79. I wouldn't expect that to go up much in Jax's offense, but I also don't see it dropping drastically either. Let's say 13.5 Y/R.Sims-Walker scored 1 TD for every 9 receptions last year. That's a lower average than the big boys like Moss or Fitzgerald, but I'd still drop it to 1 TD every 10 receptions.So, projections (and I'd consider these his floor, barring injury):144 targets, 82 receptions, 1107 yards, 8 TDs.A good WR2 (especially considering when you can get him), or a great WR3.

 

[AngryPatriot]

Some pretty big #'s being projected... I would say his main limiter is Garrard. The few times I saw him last year the ball was sailing on him something fierce. It didn't matter that the wr was open or not. Not good. Maybe I caught Garrard on a couple bad games but I do agree with the poster that said Del Rio doesn't seem like a good coach and Garrard is inconsistent.

 

[T with T]

i think garrard is ok hopefully he will be accurate like he was a couple years ago

 

[T with T]

As for the poster who asked whether he would have Bowe/MSW Its tough call I think they are almost even

 

[nysportsfan]

Bump, surprised that CP hasn't weighed in on this.

In for the ride as I drafted him last night.

Surprised that his numbers are where they are for the experts - really thought he'd be at 75 1000 7. Are people projecting health issues or Garrard, or just ineffectiveness/lack of talent?

 

[netnalp]

I think Garrard and I believe the team is considered a team that focuses on running the ball. I think the situation is like when the Saints, had Aaron Brooks and Joe Horn. Brooks was a pretty bad QB, but that didn't stop Horn from having good #'s.

 

[One]

Bump, surprised that CP hasn't weighed in on this.In for the ride as I drafted him last night.Surprised that his numbers are where they are for the experts - really thought he'd be at 75 1000 7. Are people projecting health issues or Garrard, or just ineffectiveness/lack of talent?

Might be because he disappeared in 5 of the last 6 games of '09.4-46-01-12-01-6-06-64-12-19-02-28-0

 

[netnalp]

Bump, surprised that CP hasn't weighed in on this.In for the ride as I drafted him last night.Surprised that his numbers are where they are for the experts - really thought he'd be at 75 1000 7. Are people projecting health issues or Garrard, or just ineffectiveness/lack of talent?

Might be because he disappeared in 5 of the last 6 games of '09.4-46-01-12-01-6-06-64-12-19-02-28-0

He missed his rookie year with a season ending injury, and his 2nd yr he had injuries too so he has an injury label. But, I like him, so I look at him like he's a 3rd yr WR going into this season. His numbers aren't bad for a 2nd yr WR, to me, it looks promising going into his 3rd full year of playing (Well, 2 1/2 yrs if you get picky since he only played 9 games in 2008)

 

[nysportsfan]

Bump, surprised that CP hasn't weighed in on this.In for the ride as I drafted him last night.Surprised that his numbers are where they are for the experts - really thought he'd be at 75 1000 7. Are people projecting health issues or Garrard, or just ineffectiveness/lack of talent?

Might be because he disappeared in 5 of the last 6 games of '09.4-46-01-12-01-6-06-64-12-19-02-28-0

No doubt, but I am not about to forget that in the beginning of the season he was very good. I think his decline was more to do with injuries than anything else. He is pretty talented guy, and I think with full health (always questionable) he can be every bit as good as he was during the first half of last year. I can see 1000 yards..TDs are harder to predict, so I wont.

 

[Ray_T]

Two words to motivate any serious athlete.......Contract Year.MSW is a talented, and still young player who gained valuable experience last season and is primed for a very nice year, IMO. He's quite gifted and skilled yet not on the elite level, but I believe he has the right mental makeup and work ethic to be able to take his game to another level from last year. If another weapon or two can step up and be fairly productive to relieve some of the attention that MSW will garner from defenses, I expect a true breakout season in 2010.84 rec1210 yds14.4 ypc8 TDsGreat value selection in redrafts as well as dynasty leagues.

you know what, I dont disagree with the projections if he remains healthy.however I too have some questions surrounding his health. Last year I picked him up just before he broke out and made out quite well with him, and some of the health issues were not his fault. There was a botched operation on his knee (I think it happened while he was in college) that was discussed in a thread on here early last season that caused him some grief for some time. The full year he missed was to get the second surgery to fix the problems caused by the first surgery. Since that has been fixed, his injuries have been mostly minor and not enough to keep him out of the lineup.That being said, I'd knock about 150 yards(12%) off the projection to account for the risk if you feel injuries are still a concern. this still makes him a 1000 yard receiver and probably worth drafting as a WR3 or a low end WR2. whether you need to do this is up to you and I completely respect your opinion if you feel you need to take a premium off his projected stats to account for that risk.If someone around here has the time, I'd like to get a link to that thread that was posted on here last spring about his injury history because it was a good read and really tells the story with respect to this guy.he also had personal issues when his best friend got shot, and then he comes back to work only to have a message given to him that his dad had passed away. At that point it is my understanding that the team told him to go home and write off the year.its been a while since I read the thread, so someone may have to correct the details of what I am writing about the guy, but from what I remember, this was it, and I deem the risks with this player to be reasonable.either way, I would encourage anyone who wishes to know more to do the research or pull the thread that was up last year about this guy. it was a good read.good luck everyone.

 

[nysportsfan]

If someone around here has the time, I'd like to get a link to that thread that was posted on here last spring about his injury history because it was a good read and really tells the story with respect to this guy.

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...;hl=sims-walker