I play in a league where all td's are 6 pts over 40yds 9pts while I don't own the number 1 pick I can't see why there's not more talk of him being the #1 overall player. I know he's a injury risk but in my league he was on pace to putting up 587 pts last season. I know he presents a injury risk but in Andy Reid's offense they throw the ball 35 times a game at 8 yds per att you looking at 4300 yds pass with 900 yds rushing he is capable of having the best season in fantasy history! So why do not here his name mentioned as #1 overall?
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Mike vick #1 overal (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter hotboyz
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Dr. Awesome
Footballguy
There has been talk of him being drafted #1 overall. Though most of that discussion took place last year. In certain league formats it could make a lot of sense. In standard setups I'm not a fan of this move.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
i would not simply because I can grab Chris Johnson and then get a QB on 2/3 turn that is going to have top5 potential. The dropoff at RB on the 2/3 turn IMO is larger than the drop off at QB. Scoring rules can obviously have a major impact on this.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Put another way...would you rather have the Vick/Hillis combo or the Chris Johnson/P.Manning combo?
Winning IS Everything
Footballguy
This. I think the dropoff at RB is much greater than QB, thus I would be more inclined to grab AP or CJ and settle with a Matt Ryan type QB later.
matuski
Footballguy
I haven't read Berry's argument but I imagine he realizes Vick is both a top 5 QB and a top 10 RB when you take his passing and rushing seperately. Clear cut #1 pick imo.
I was also of the thinking that the drop off was bigger at RB but in 6pt td leagues I'm not so sure in my league he finished 7 pts behind. #1 qb and thats in11 games prorated over a 16 game season he scores about 180 pts more than the next qb! He could. Throw for 4200 and run for 1000 that's historic!
gianmarco
Footballguy
I actually disagree for a couple reasons.First, the PPG advantage Vick had over other QBs last year was far larger than it was at RB. He was scoring 6-7 ppg more than Rodgers, the #2 QB!! He was 10+ ppg better than half the QBs other teams in the league would be starting. It was like having another starter on your team. Secondly, Vick has a better chance to replicate his numbers compared to Foster or CJ3 when he had 2000 yds. Why? Because the seasons Foster and CJ3 had are record breaking type seasons with incredibly abnormal production. Vick's production actually wasn't record-breaking in either passing or rushing. It was the combination. Thus, his passing numbers can be duplicated as well as his rushing numbers without breaking records to do so. Now, whether or not he does is a different story, but I'd say he has a better chance at being #1 overall QB again than Foster does of being #1 RB.Yes, Vick should easily be considered for the #1 overall spot.
Insein
Footballguy
You wouldn't get Manning. It'd be more like Johnson/Romo or Johnson/Brees. Still not bad. And hillis wouldn't be all thats left at the end of the 2nd/3rd. People like their WR's a lot.
adrenaline
Footballguy
I would take Vick 1st in a 2QB redraft league. 
Banger
Footballguy
It depends on the scoring system but he outscored Rodgers on a ppg basis by 30%! He also NEVER got fewer than 20 pts in a game and had games of 32, 39 and 49. The Eagles team should improve, McCoy, Maclin and DJax are all young and improving. He's the perfect QB, in the perfect system at the right time....the stars are aligned for a potentially record breaking season.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
If Vick can play like he did last season for a full season, then sure. But his production last year was stupid good, and if he regresses anywhere near the normal amount, he won't be worth the #1 pick.
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
Seriously. Vick has the potential to simultaneously put up QB1 numbers and RB2 numbers. It's really like adding an extra flex player to your starting lineup.
gianmarco
Footballguy
That's the thing, though. He would have to regress in terms of combining Passing and Rushing like he did. But his raw numbers themselves are not numbers that will be difficult to replicate.He had 3000 passing yards and 21 passing TDs in 12 games. Those numbers can be duplicated.He had 676 rushing yds and 9 TDs rushing in 12 games. Again, those numbers can be duplicated.It's just a matter of putting them both together again.
Touchdown There
Footballguy
Vick and Hillis.
Banger
Footballguy
what is the mean when comparing him against other QB's? There are no apples to apples comparisons because he's likely to run for 600+ more yards than Payton / Brady / Brees (not including the definite rushing TD advantage) and twice as much as Rodgers so they would have to throw 15 more tds to just equal Vicks running stats. There's a difference between someone throwing 49 tds and having a truly record breaking season but Vick over his last 4 healthy "full" seasons (15 or 16 games) has averaged 828 rushing yards so his 600+ yards wasn't an outlier or an anomoly. The anomoly in comparing with his past was his passing but A LOT of things changed that indicate that the switch has been flipped on and at the end of the day he threw for 21 tds and a tad over 3000 yards. On that offense with that talent there's no reason that he can't shouldn't improve on those figures. I expect his rushing numbers to come down but his passing numbers to go up.
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Touchdown There
Footballguy
This is what it is all about. He has the potential to dominate on a PPG level, even if he is going to miss a few weeks.
VaTerp
Footballguy
Is the potential reward worthy of taking him first overall? Absolutely.
Is the risk (both w/ statistical deviation and injury) worth it? That's all a matter of league set up and personal opinion.
In preparing for my two main leagues with similar QB friendly scoring, Vick is #4 overall on my board with Rogers at #5 behind him. Right now, those are the 2 QBs I have with 1st round value.
Is the risk (both w/ statistical deviation and injury) worth it? That's all a matter of league set up and personal opinion.
In preparing for my two main leagues with similar QB friendly scoring, Vick is #4 overall on my board with Rogers at #5 behind him. Right now, those are the 2 QBs I have with 1st round value.
Stealthycat
Footballguy
in a recent start up 12 team Dynasty league, I traded my 1st round pick for additional 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounds picks and when Vick fell to 2.5? I picked him ....... risky, but he was the #1 PPG player and the #2 overall behind RB Foster (in that scoring format) Schaub in the 7th was insurance ...... as long as Vick has his game going, he has the ability to win your weekly game all by himself
how many players can do that? Brady/Manning/Foster/CJIII .... he's that good
how many players can do that? Brady/Manning/Foster/CJIII .... he's that good
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
That's 4,000 passing yards and 28 passing TDs in 16 games.And 900 rushing yards and 12 TDs in 16 games.That would be one of the most ridiculous seasons in NFL history, if he could do it. To put that down as a projection is like projecting Chris Johnson for 2200 rushing yards. Yes, it's possible, but it's a "if everything breaks right" scenario.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
I agree the rushing will be there. But he was on pace for 12 rushing TDs last year, while he had only 11 total in his prior three full seasons. Putting aside the legitimate questions about whether he can hold up for 16 games -- and the fact that he's now 31 -- I don't have a problem with projecting 900 yards and 6 TDs over 16 games.I expect his yards per game to drop from the 250 range to the 215 range, and would project about 22 passing TDs for him. Again, he *could* have absurd numbers but I wouldn't feel comfortable projecting that.
Combined with the fact that Vick is, just in generally, a risky proposition, and I think it's an incredibly risky move picking him #1. There are safer options out there, although I certainly understand that Vick has a good chance of ending the season #1 in VBD.
butcher boy
Footballguy
The Eagles this year are going to be so good in other areas that they wont need Vick to give crazy numbers like that. He'll most likely sit a bit once HFA is sealed up too. No way he reproduces last year's stats.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Manning has been going early 3rd in most of the SSLs...Tom Brady too FYI
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Vick doesn't need to stop running btw, he simply needs to learn to take what he can get and slide or run out of bounds. I have full confidence in Reid and Morningwig to get that corrected.
I think a lot of owners simply want Michael Vick and love what they saw last year so it starts at the 1.01 and we're taking numbers.
I think a lot of owners simply want Michael Vick and love what they saw last year so it starts at the 1.01 and we're taking numbers.
Banger
Footballguy
Last year Brady threw for 3900-36, Rodgers 3900-28, Peyton 4700-33, Rivers 4700-30, Brees 4600-30, Eli 4000-31...so is Vick throwing for 4000 and 28 in that offense crazy? I don't think so at all. Can he improve on that? Watching the way he was playing in that offense last year, I think he can. The rushing numbers are the difference...do I expect him to run for 12 tds? No, 900 yards, not likely. If he regressed 30% from those numbers and ran for 600 and 8 (which is a good bit lower than his historical average), he'll still annihilate every other QB fantasy point wise.
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fightingillini
Footballguy
Depending on the scoring system, Vick definitely should be considered for the #1 pick overall. In one of my leagues, my projections have Vick scoring 50 points more than Peyton Manning....and I am assuming Vick misses a game. Now in that league, I probably wouldn't take Vick #1 since I can get a top 5 QB in Round 2 and the dropoff between Foster and say the #12RB is more than 50 points.
But I would definitely consider Vick at #4 overall once Foster, ADP and CJ are off the board.
But I would definitely consider Vick at #4 overall once Foster, ADP and CJ are off the board.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I do want to go on record as I have before and say that Michael Vick did things with the football I have never seen done before. I have taken him as the QB1 off the board but I usually get him early 2nd round. I know not everyone will draft in that type of a league but many of the folks I do this with tend to gravitate towards the wait till the 6th, 7th, 8th round and then grab 2-3 QBs instead of taking one early.
Philip Rivers offers some real nice value in the 4th round and will have a motivated Vincent Jackson on board from the start. I love Vick but there are other ways to StC sort of speak.
Philip Rivers offers some real nice value in the 4th round and will have a motivated Vincent Jackson on board from the start. I love Vick but there are other ways to StC sort of speak.
fightingillini
Footballguy
By a pretty wide margin. Assuming 1 pt per 20 yds passing, 1 pt per 10 yards rushing, 4 pts per TD pass and 6 pts per TD run, Vick would score 420 points with 4000/28....600/8. Manning would score 367 with 4700/33. That's a 3.3 pt difference per game. That's a big advantage. And Manning is a top 5 QB.
Banger
Footballguy
If people think Vick is going to regress, where do they think he'll regress and why? Rushing wise when he was with Atlanta he ran for 777-8, 902-3, 597-6, and 1039-2. Mind you this is when he couldn't pass down field with any consistency and he would just drop back count 1001, 1002 and run...now he's on a real offense, with a good coach, with very good young talent and he's learned how to pass the ball. Teams can't just shadow him and put 8-9 in the box like they did in the past because he can torch them with his passing/weapons. Part of the spike in rushing TDs is due to the change in the past few years to the wildcat formation. Philly doesn't have a goal line back and McCoy isn't a thumper so I don't see them changing their use of Vick too awful much near the goal line so while he won't score 12, he should score 6-9. In my mind the only way you can really argue against Vick being the #1 qb is the injury risk.
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Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Banger, a lot of folks feel Vick might not play a full season. Some are hoping he doesn't get to play much at all if you catch my drift, just something you need to keep in focus. I think it only help Vick supporters in not completely overspending for him. I got 60+ out of him in the Skins game last year. If he throws for 3,500 and rushes for 750...that's 5,000 passing yds essentially in most FF formats. You roll in 30 TDs and it's hard to imagine another QB having a better season than him. I do feel there are a handful of QBs though due to loaded offesnes and sketchy defenses(see Dallas) that are going to offer a fantasy bonanza for owners. And with rookies not knowing much yet, lot of team in flux, i expect there to be some shameful scores on Sunday this year. Example...would it shock you if Romo threw for 4,400 yds and 30 TDs(assuming he stays healthy)? I think they will be in shootout city this year.
nysportsfan
Footballguy
3700-27-8
850-7
If I had the first overall pick, I wouldn't do it, but three or later and I'd pick him without hesitation.
850-7
If I had the first overall pick, I wouldn't do it, but three or later and I'd pick him without hesitation.
So my question is how do I come up with only 3700 pass yds knowing that Reid's offense historically throws 35 times a game and the last 2 seasons at 8 yds per attempt?
Banger
Footballguy
It wouldn't shock me if Romo had numbers like that but then again Rivers had numbers like that as did Peyton and Brees and Vick scored more than them on an injury shortened season. Is it possible for a QB to have a monster year and score more than Vick? Yup but which one will it be? Brady? Brees? Manning? Romo?To me it's all about probabilities and likelihood...I think it's more likely that Vick goes for 3800 and 26 and 600 and 6 than it is for one of those guys to throw for 5000 and 40 (they'd beat Vick 410 to 390 in that scenario) and if one does it which one will it be?
gianmarco
Footballguy
Here's what it is for me:
We saw last year how many winning teams had Vick as their QB. He was such a weapon that Vick owners were difficult to beat. Vick/Foster? Forget about it.
If you pass on Vick, another team gets him, and he DOES replicate the numbers, that team is going to have a huge advantage and you are playing catch up everywhere. You should be that team. His floor, even if he regresses significantly, is still going to be above average to excellent. He won't lose it for you if he "only" passes for 2500/15 and rushes for 500/5. That's still a very good year at QB. I'd say his risk of injury is no more than any RB taken in the 1st just by the nature of the RB position. When you factor in how many RBs bust in the 1st round, Vick makes even more sense.
In essense, he has the potential to win your league by himself and is unlikely to cost you barring significant time missed even if he regresses by a large amount (which is also unlikely, IMO). His floor is so high.
We saw last year how many winning teams had Vick as their QB. He was such a weapon that Vick owners were difficult to beat. Vick/Foster? Forget about it.
If you pass on Vick, another team gets him, and he DOES replicate the numbers, that team is going to have a huge advantage and you are playing catch up everywhere. You should be that team. His floor, even if he regresses significantly, is still going to be above average to excellent. He won't lose it for you if he "only" passes for 2500/15 and rushes for 500/5. That's still a very good year at QB. I'd say his risk of injury is no more than any RB taken in the 1st just by the nature of the RB position. When you factor in how many RBs bust in the 1st round, Vick makes even more sense.
In essense, he has the potential to win your league by himself and is unlikely to cost you barring significant time missed even if he regresses by a large amount (which is also unlikely, IMO). His floor is so high.
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Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Who is Tom Brady?2010: 3,900/36
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I'll take ICON trivia for $600 Alex
Manster
Footballguy
If Vick runs that much they're gonna be scrapin him off the field. If you take Vick, get a good back up. This is definately possible. There will good QB's available in middle rounds.Personally, I'd rather take AP and get one of the stud QB's available at the turn.
gethugefast1
Footballguy
My thoughts also...Eagles were 23rd in scoring defense. This year they should be in the top 10, if not top 5? With the lead will they consider sitting on it or even pulling him for Young to avoid injury? 
gianmarco
Footballguy
It decreases Vick's value some but he's still worth a lot bc of the rushing yards.
I really think anyone extrapolating Vick's numbers from last year over an entire season are making a mistake. I don't see Vick as just an injury "risk" - I think it's a lock that he misses games due to injuries. He will also likely play injured in a number of games that he does start which will further limit his fantasy production. At this point last year, no one was expecting Vick to play much. This year, every defensive coordinator on the Eagles schedule has spent the summer specifically designing a game-plan to keep Vick in the pocket - of course, not all of them will be successful, but those that will will serve as a model for other teams.
Arizona Ron
Footballguy
Teams have a year of film on Vick; no way will he come close to last season.
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