Ed: What Is Mike Wallace Worth?
Tuesday, 21 February 2012 06:14
Written by Ed Bouchette, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
Good morning,
Mike Wallace is back in the news this week because franchise tags were first permitted to be issued by teams Monday. No surprise the Steelers did not tag Wallace, although they can still do that until March 3.
Kevin Colbert pretty much acknowledged on 93.7 The Fan the other day that the Steelers were in no position to franchise Wallace because they had salary cap problems. The Steelers are about $10 million over the cap now. Franchising Wallace at more than $9 million for 2012 would put them close to $20 million over the cap.
Here is another issue that is more important -- Does anyone think Wallace should get more than $9 million in 2012. And, once they do that, the Steelers would have to start there if they wanted to negotiate a longer-term deal. Wallace is good, but not $10 million annually good. So, they will make him the more reasonable restricted free agent one-year tender and see what develops. Other teams can sign Wallace to a contract after free agency begins . The Steelers would then have two options -- do nothing and receive a first-round 2012 draft choice in return from the team that signed him, or they could match the contract he signed with the other team and keep him.
The Steelers are willing to have Wallace test the market, and if indeed he signs a contract and they deem it too high, they'll take a first-round draft choice in return and have two first-round picks for only the second time since the 1970s NFL merger (the other was 1989). So what is Mike Wallace worth? His first three seasons have been rocket-like, with him climbing higher and higher. However, in the middle of what seemed to be his best and record-setting season, Wallace fizzled.
Through the first eight games, Wallace caught 43 passes for 800 yards, on pace for a 1,600-yard season that would have obliterated the team record by more than 200 yards. However, in the final eight games he caught 29 passes for only 393 yards. He averaged 18.6 yards a catch in the first half of the season, just 13.6 in the second half to finish with a career low average of 16.6 yards per catch.
He topped it off with a miserable playoff game in Denver, where he caught three passes for 26 yards.
Here's the question the Steelers and other prospective suitors in free agency must determine: Did defenses figure out Mike Wallace finally as the one-trick pony that Mike Tomlin long declared he was? Wallace is at his best running the "go" routes and outside flag patterns, where he has a chance to outrun someone. However, when faced with cover two defenses and safeties hanging deep, he's not as effective. He does not seem to fight for the ball at times and even gives up on some when covered.
During this slump by Wallace in the second half of the season, Antonio Brown emerged like a Jeremy Lin. He clearly was the team's best receiver in the second half of the season. Curiously, Brown's rise should have helped Wallace because Brown's best asset is taking a short to medium range pass and running with it.
Maybe all the final eight games and one playoff game merely was a slump for Wallace and he will return to the kind of production he had in the first half of 2011. But as teams turn on the tape, they have to be surprised at the difference between the first half Wallace and the second half Wallace of 2011.
Onto some stuff:
-- YOU: Just wondering, never looked at it this way until now... if Wallace was offered a contract by another team, which he does not want to play for, does he have a choice to reject the contract and work something out with the Steelers? Or do the Steelers have to match that offer regardless? If they can't match the offer, would Wallace be forced to play for that team even if he did not want to accept the offer, kindof like a trade?
ME: Wallace would have to sign a contract before it goes into effect. The large majority of RFAs are never offered contracts, but if they are they certainly do not have to sign them. They can ignore offers and simply return to the Steelers, accept their one-year RFA tender or negotiate a multi-year deal.
--YOU: Worst case scenario on Mike Wallace – the Steelers can’t sign him to a long-term contract, do the appropriate RFA tender, and he gets some outrageous payday offer from a team like the 49ers or Patriots (both of which are in dire need of a deep threat) that the Steelers just cannot match. That would give the Steelers a very late 1st round pick (#30 or 31), which would appear to be poor value for Wallace. Do you know if the Steelers think this is a real concern?
ME: The Steelers are aware that scenario is possible.