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Miles Austin, WR, Dallas Cowboys (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2011 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

With the labor uncertainty, there are more unanswered questions entering the summer than usual. The good news is that gives us some more time to discuss the merits of players without having to react (or overreact) to the smallest bits of news about a slight injury in practice, or coach speak. We'll have plenty of time for that when it comes (we hope).

In the meantime, as always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Miles Austin, WR, Dallas Cowboys

Player Page Link: Miles Austin Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

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While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

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[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

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WR Miles Austin is a good football player. He has pretty good hands, he's improved in his route running, he can run the ball well on a reverse play, and he gets down field to block. Last year when Tony Romo went down, I felt Austin's play making ability really took a hit because the Cowboys seemed to use him more downfield and it took them awhile to game plan differently for Miles with Kitna as the QB who seemed to throw it to Dez Bryant later in the season, especially quick off the line so that opposing defenses couldn't get to the aging Kitna.

So now we are left to weigh a few things out when evaluating Miles Austin. Was it Kitna to Dez Bryant or was it just Dez's ability to be a great player coming out since he missed most of his camp last year due to a sprained ankle. Is having Romo back going to allow him to get downfield more and make those big plays we were seeing 2 seasons ago as he busted onto the seen.

I am also a believer that Jason Garrett is going to try and establish the run more this year than we've seen when Wade Phillips was the coach. I am tempering my expectations for most Cowboy receiving yardage. I think they will be solid but maybe not exactly what we've been used to.

71 receptions for 1080 yards, 7 td's

 
I tend to agree that the Cowboys will try to run more, but I think that will ultimately come down to the defense.

Either way there should still be 4000+ yards and 30+ TDs to go around for Cowboy receivers. I think Austin is still the clear #1 in Dallas, especially with Romo in at QB. Romo and Austin just looked far too good together early in the season, I can't see breaking up that chemistry.

I think if Bryant does improve this year it will be at the expense of Witten. Although I don't see either guy hitting 1000 years this season. Austin on the other hand, I don't think he will keep up that 1600 yard pace he was on before Romo was inured, but I do think he will do this:

131 targets

85 receptions

65%

1280 yards

15 ypc

8 TDs

 
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I've been an Austin owner/supporter for a while, but this year I'm paying close attention to the ADPs of both him and Dez. I just don't believe that there is much difference between the two and I'm half expecting Dez to put up better numbers. No way I'm taking Miles in the late 2nd if I can get Dez in the late 4th.

I fear that the Dez hype train will get out of control and you'll be looking at similar 3rd round ADPs on both of these guys come August. All things being equal, I suppose I'd have to take Miles over Dez in a redraft, but I'm expecting solid numbers out of both of them.

Miles: 83 catches, 1,175 yards, 7 TDs

I'm not sure about Dez, but I bet he gets more touchdowns than Miles this season.

 
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I think Dez will keep Miles yardage down and Wittens TDs down because Dez had an increase in production as the season went on and Witten had his surge in TDs when Dez got hurt. Since 1960, only one WR/WR/TE trio has had each get 1k+ yards. I think Dez and Witten stay productive and Austin disappoints as he become the 3rd option.

Miles 64/750/6

 
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I think Dez will keep Miles yardage down and Wittens TDs down because Dez had an increase in production as the season went on and Witten had his surge in TDs when Dez got hurt.Miles 64/750/6
Huh?Miles has a career 16.2 ypc average and in 4 yrs has never dropped below 15. Yet you have him at 11.7 ypc like some slot WR? That makes no sense whatsoever. You can be down on Austin, but that kind of ypc doesn't jive with the kind of WR he is and how he's used.
 
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I think Dez will keep Miles yardage down and Wittens TDs down because Dez had an increase in production as the season went on and Witten had his surge in TDs when Dez got hurt.Miles 64/750/6
Huh?Miles has a career 16.2 ypc average and in 4 yrs has never dropped below 15. Yet you have him at 11.7 ypc like some slot WR? That makes no sense whatsoever. You can be down on Austin, but that kind of ypc doesn't jive with the kind of WR he is and how he's used.
I think Dez and Austin are similar WRs, just that Dez is a little bit more explosive. I don't think the line will give Romo enough time for both to run deep routes all the time. Because of his experience I think Austin runs more option routes to find holes to sit in, in the defenses zones and run screens, short and medium routes. I think that'll cause a decrease in ypc.
 
I think Dez will keep Miles yardage down and Wittens TDs down because Dez had an increase in production as the season went on and Witten had his surge in TDs when Dez got hurt.Miles 64/750/6
Huh?Miles has a career 16.2 ypc average and in 4 yrs has never dropped below 15. Yet you have him at 11.7 ypc like some slot WR? That makes no sense whatsoever. You can be down on Austin, but that kind of ypc doesn't jive with the kind of WR he is and how he's used.
Agreed. In theory, Austins ypc should go up, not down, with Bryant on the other side drawing coverage. That projection makes absolutely no sense.
 
Austin, in most cases, would be the legit #1 option. But I think Dez Bryant is the most talented WR on the team and is going to potentially have a really big year, which somewhat limits Austin's upside IMO. Austin should have a decent year, but I will be looking at getting Bryant a round later.

80 rec, 1150 yds, 8 TD.

 
Austin should have a great season with fewer double teams. I think Dez gets a bigger piece of the pie than last year, and Austin and Witten stay near their recent numbers. Most of Dez' gains will come at Roy Williams expense imo.

78 catches, 1125 yards, 8 TD, ~ wr 8

 
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Dez hype is out of control - I'll take Austin this year hands down....Dez is the #1 of the future but I still say Miles is the #1 this year with Romo - 1,300 yds 10TDs

 
I think Dez is an amazing talent, but Romo and Austin have a connection. I like Austin for 1,200 and 6 at a minimum. I'm thinking 1,300 and 9 TDs is my base case. Upside would be 1,400 and 12 TDs. I wasn't high on him last year but the first few weeks with Romo last year converted me.

 
This situation is just like Fitz-Boldin (not saying their styles are the same). Both are extremely talented, one could be considered to have a higher upside (Dez). Each will have excellent production but either one could end up on top. Best bet is to draft the guy with less hype and it's a win-win for you.

 
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I think the weak link is Witten. Romo has been increasingly reliant on Austin, and if he'd remained healthy last year I don't think you would've seen this big resurgence from Witten. His 2009 was a pretty big disappointment.

As for Austin vs. Bryant, the guy to have is probably Bryant, especially in keeper/dynasty leagues. Dallas loves their stars, and whereas Austin has plenty of talent and a good rapport with Romo, Bryant is a bonefide star.

 
Romo does have a great rapport w/Austin but I think that can easily change with Dez ready to work this off-season. Overall I don't think I'd take Austin in round 3(ish) when Dez can be had later. With Roy likely to be released

Dallas & Philly are similar situations for WRs this year in that I'm targeting whichever guy is second off the board. I think DJax/Maclin & Austin/Bryant are tandems that will be solid producers in fantasy with little separation between the two (respectively) this year. Because of that, I like Bryant & Maclin better as the better value at ~20 picks later.

Austin: 70 / 1100 / 8 with 8 / 80 / 0 rushing. (Give Dez Roy's production and he's pushing 1000 yards, too. TDs are just too hard to predict, so that's why I see the two as fairly equal for draft purposes.)

 
Romo does have a great rapport w/Austin but I think that can easily change with Dez ready to work this off-season. Overall I don't think I'd take Austin in round 3(ish) when Dez can be had later. With Roy likely to be releasedDallas & Philly are similar situations for WRs this year in that I'm targeting whichever guy is second off the board. I think DJax/Maclin & Austin/Bryant are tandems that will be solid producers in fantasy with little separation between the two (respectively) this year. Because of that, I like Bryant & Maclin better as the better value at ~20 picks later.Austin: 70 / 1100 / 8 with 8 / 80 / 0 rushing. (Give Dez Roy's production and he's pushing 1000 yards, too. TDs are just too hard to predict, so that's why I see the two as fairly equal for draft purposes.)
Roy is going no where.Miles is tough to handicap.4 big factors are obviously- Witten, Dez, running game and defense.Safe bet is:70 11507
 
Romo does have a great rapport w/Austin but I think that can easily change with Dez ready to work this off-season. Overall I don't think I'd take Austin in round 3(ish) when Dez can be had later. With Roy likely to be releasedDallas & Philly are similar situations for WRs this year in that I'm targeting whichever guy is second off the board. I think DJax/Maclin & Austin/Bryant are tandems that will be solid producers in fantasy with little separation between the two (respectively) this year. Because of that, I like Bryant & Maclin better as the better value at ~20 picks later.
The difference between Dallas and Philly is that Maclin is entering his third year and put up 1000/10 as a sophomore and basically matched Desean's fantasy production. Dez could take a good step forward and still not reach those numbers this year. Even if he did he would still be behind Austin's average pace with Romo the previous two years.
 
I don't mean to downplay Dez's talent, but a lot of people are acting like he is a proven commodity already. Sure, he's shown enough to get excited about but Miles Austin was a top 5 WR as of last year and some people are already writing him off as WR2 to Bryant. In 19 games with Romo, Austin is averaging 6.3 rec/gm. Just how far do you expect that to drop? I'm sorry but I just can't crown Dez a better talent than a proven WR1 AND expect him to win over Romo's trust.

People are too easily lured by the shiny new toy here. If Miles puts up less than 80/1250/8 and Dez puts up more than 70/1100/7 I will be very surprised.

 
'Bankerguy said:
Romo does have a great rapport w/Austin but I think that can easily change with Dez ready to work this off-season. Overall I don't think I'd take Austin in round 3(ish) when Dez can be had later. With Roy likely to be released

Dallas & Philly are similar situations for WRs this year in that I'm targeting whichever guy is second off the board. I think DJax/Maclin & Austin/Bryant are tandems that will be solid producers in fantasy with little separation between the two (respectively) this year. Because of that, I like Bryant & Maclin better as the better value at ~20 picks later.

Austin: 70 / 1100 / 8 with 8 / 80 / 0 rushing. (Give Dez Roy's production and he's pushing 1000 yards, too. TDs are just too hard to predict, so that's why I see the two as fairly equal for draft purposes.)
Roy is going no where.Miles is tough to handicap.

4 big factors are obviously- Witten, Dez, running game and defense.

Safe bet is:

70

1150

7
Oops. Thought I deleted that incomplete sentence about Roy. I read recent rumors claiming he would be released but then found stuff saying it would cost the Cowboys nearly 13M as a cap hit. It's looking like there's no way he leaves. Though I still see Dez forcing him into a smaller role.
Romo does have a great rapport w/Austin but I think that can easily change with Dez ready to work this off-season. Overall I don't think I'd take Austin in round 3(ish) when Dez can be had later. With Roy likely to be released

Dallas & Philly are similar situations for WRs this year in that I'm targeting whichever guy is second off the board. I think DJax/Maclin & Austin/Bryant are tandems that will be solid producers in fantasy with little separation between the two (respectively) this year. Because of that, I like Bryant & Maclin better as the better value at ~20 picks later.
The difference between Dallas and Philly is that Maclin is entering his third year and put up 1000/10 as a sophomore and basically matched Desean's fantasy production. Dez could take a good step forward and still not reach those numbers this year. Even if he did he would still be behind Austin's average pace with Romo the previous two years.
There are a few differences, that's for sure. But the general point still stands: the second guy off the board can produce similar numbers @ a 1-2 round savings in the draft.
 
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I laughed when Dez went in the 2nd of my ongoing startup, a pick or two before I took Mike Wallace. Then I laughed again as I scooped up Austin at the end of the 3rd. That's hype, people. Even in a dynasty startup, even if you believe in him, that's crazy to me.

 
i just finished a start up last month and could not believe that Austin lasted until 3.12 (even after Bowe).

I ended up trading for him since his perceived value seems to be relatively low. If Romo is healthy, I really like Austin more than Dez this year... I see Top 6 in PPR.

 
Low low side would be 72/1000/5-6TDs and honestly I would assume he missed time along the way.

His high upside would seem to be about 100+ rec, 1500 yds, and 12 TDs...so I come up with a happy medium of roughly...

85 recepetions, 1,300 yds, and 9 TDs.

 
I think Dez will keep Miles yardage down and Wittens TDs down because Dez had an increase in production as the season went on and Witten had his surge in TDs when Dez got hurt.Miles 64/750/6
Huh?Miles has a career 16.2 ypc average and in 4 yrs has never dropped below 15. Yet you have him at 11.7 ypc like some slot WR? That makes no sense whatsoever. You can be down on Austin, but that kind of ypc doesn't jive with the kind of WR he is and how he's used.
I think Dez and Austin are similar WRs, just that Dez is a little bit more explosive. I don't think the line will give Romo enough time for both to run deep routes all the time. Because of his experience I think Austin runs more option routes to find holes to sit in, in the defenses zones and run screens, short and medium routes. I think that'll cause a decrease in ypc.
I'm not sure Dez is more "explosive". Dez has very good hands and is very physical. His ball skills kinda remind me of Larry Fitzgerald. He's a QB's dream in the red zone. He presents matchup nightmares for smaller DB's. Miles is a threat to take it to the house in the open field every time he touches the ball. He's also pretty big and physical.Slightly different skill sets, great one-two punch. Get it to Miles on the slant. Throw it up for Dez down the sideline and watch him come down with it.I could see both with similar numbers. Dez will prolly be the main redzone target, with a few more TD's.
 
I agree with those saying the Dez hype is getting a bit out of control, at least in redraft leagues. I love Dez as much as the next guy, maybe even moreso, but he was not the reason Austin's numbers suffered last season, that can be put on Kitna.

Dez Bryant really only had 4 good/great games last season, which came between weeks 6-9, all of which Kitna was the primary starter. During those 4 weeks, Austin averaged 59.8 yards per game. During the rest of the season Dez Bryant pretty well did nothing or was injured. During those games, week 10-17, Miles Austin averaged 45.1 yards per game, almost 15 yards less a game. Those numbers suggest Austin does way worse with Kitna then with Romo, obviously, but also that his numbers are better when Dez is playing as it likely makes defenses unable to focus on Austin so much.

 
bump . . . I haven't heard anything regarding the hamstring or him practicing. What's his deal?
Miles Austin participates in some practice Miles Austin (hamstring) went through "resistance training" at Cowboys practice Monday and also took part in some drills.Austin was limited to individual work, but the Cowboys don't seem concerned. "I think Miles will be fine," Tony Romo said. "Miles works real hard, cares about the game. He has a great head on his shoulders and has a great feel for the game. I suspect he’ll be ready to roll come Sunday night." Austin has a date with Darrelle Revis and the Jets this Sunday night. Source: ESPN Dallas Sep 5 - 4:39 PM
 
What are the thoughts of the Shark Pool now that Austin is back? He started off nicely the first two games but I kind of expected more last week coming off a bye against a NE D that has given it up to the passing game. I know he's coming back from injury but I still expected more.

Granted he exploded in week 2 against San Fran but if you extrapolate his stats to the end the season you get:

122 targets

75 receptions

1105 yards

14 tds

Here's how that extrapolation breaks down for the remainder of the year (11 games):

88 targets

54 receptions

798 yards

10 tds

And a per game basis the rest of the way:

8 targets

5 receptions

72 yards

.9 tds

That's on average a little less than 18 ppg in PPR and slightly less than 13 ppg in non-PPR.

I'm thinking that projecting 10 TDs the rest of the way is high so I'm going to halve that but I think the receptions and yards look a little low.

With that being said let's say an average of 16 ppg in PPR and 11 ppg in non-PPR for the rest of the year. Would you consider these numbers to be his floor? I think I might.

Those numbers put his floor about WR 17 in non-PPR. Does his ceiling put him in the top 7 moving forward (top tier or two WR in 14 team leagues)?

P.S. I apologize in advance if my math is bad.

 
Be patient he is gonna need a game or two to get back into shape but austin is still a great receiver on a pass happy team and has the most trust behind witten from the qb

 
I would have Austin inside the top 10 WRs for the rest of the season. Probably #8 or #9. All I needed to see was him back in action catching 7 for 74 on a "bad" day. 10 targets, yes please. Dez is a great talent but seems to be getting the tougher coverages and disappearing later in games. Both still have good seasons ahead, but I'll take Miles to the bank.

 
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I would have Austin inside the top 10 WRs for the rest of the season. Probably #8 or #9. All I needed to see was him back in action catching 7 for 74 on a "bad" day. 10 targets, yes please. Dez is a great talent but seems to be getting the tougher coverages and disappearing later in games. Both still have good seasons ahead, but I'll take Miles to the bank.
I 100% agree with what you said.
 
I would imagine his injury has something to do with his sluggish production, but as many speculated, the addition of Bryant plus the presence of the vet Witten, has possibly put Austin into a more secondary role.

 
Tony Romo has turned into Jon Kitna. They aren't throwing it downfield and Austin is suffering similarly to the second half of last year. I don't know if this continues, but it sure seems to be a reaction to Romo's mistakes in the first few games, so I expect it might.

 
here we go....people already think austin is useless. such a what have you done for me this week crowd.
the guy has laid two eggs in a row since he returned from injury....its a legit concern IMO.
actually yesterday was his first and only bad game of the season. game flow dictates who gets targets. just because someone has a bad game, it doesn't mean they are being phased out.
 
No worries..the Cowboys will go back to abandoning the run soon enough, as Jason Garret tries to get too cute with the play-calling against Philly.

 
Next week do you think the Eagles put Asomugha on Dez and let Austin face Samuel? Say what you will about the eagles d but the opponents #1 WR has struggled all year vs them..

 

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