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Miles Austin, WR, Dallas Cowboys (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Miles Austin, WR, Dallas Cowboys

Player Page Link: Miles Austin Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or :popcorn: ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
Miles Austin is a really tough guy to project this year. I forget what his average stats were from 2009 and 2010 while in the starting lineup with Romo. I think it averaged out to a 16g average of something like 105/1690/15. Crazy stupid numbers. But his numbers dropped off last year and it is hard to pinpoint why. Was it the recurring hamstring injury? Were they limiting the number of snaps he played? Did Romo just start to like throwing to Robinson and Bryant more? Really hard to tell what was going on, but his target numbers never got above 8 after week 6 despite averaging 8.7 between week 5 and 19 of 2009 and 10.25 in 4 games with Romo in 2010. If someone could come up with a game log with # of snaps played for 2009, 2010, and 2011 I think that would be very helpful (or just provide a link to where I can find this).

In the meantime, a projection would just be worthless conjecture without some stats to back them up, but I'm going to guess that Austin outpeforms his ADP of 45 (WR18). Bryant's involvement is of course a wildcard here, but the loss of Robinson should return a lot of targets to Miles. The Cowboys threw the ball 570 times last year, completing 376 - 83 to RBs, 111 to TEs, and 182 to WRs. It is worth noting that in 2010, with mostly Kitna throwing to him, his numbers were as follows: 119 targets, 69 rec, 1041 yds (15.1 ypr), 7 TD for a finish of WR12.

8 targets/game x 16 games = 128 x 61% = 78 rec x 15.5 ypr = 1209 yds 9 TD

 
Miles Austin is a really tough guy to project this year. I forget what his average stats were from 2009 and 2010 while in the starting lineup with Romo. I think it averaged out to a 16g average of something like 105/1690/15. Crazy stupid numbers. But his numbers dropped off last year and it is hard to pinpoint why. Was it the recurring hamstring injury? Were they limiting the number of snaps he played? Did Romo just start to like throwing to Robinson and Bryant more? Really hard to tell what was going on, but his target numbers never got above 8 after week 6 despite averaging 8.7 between week 5 and 19 of 2009 and 10.25 in 4 games with Romo in 2010. If someone could come up with a game log with # of snaps played for 2009, 2010, and 2011 I think that would be very helpful (or just provide a link to where I can find this).

In the meantime, a projection would just be worthless conjecture without some stats to back them up, but I'm going to guess that Austin outpeforms his ADP of 45 (WR18). Bryant's involvement is of course a wildcard here, but the loss of Robinson should return a lot of targets to Miles. The Cowboys threw the ball 570 times last year, completing 376 - 83 to RBs, 111 to TEs, and 182 to WRs. It is worth noting that in 2010, with mostly Kitna throwing to him, his numbers were as follows: 119 targets, 69 rec, 1041 yds (15.1 ypr), 7 TD for a finish of WR12.

8 targets/game x 16 games = 128 x 61% = 78 rec x 15.5 ypr = 1209 yds 9 TD
I owned him last year and while the hammy was frustrating I think he's good value this year. Last year he was hurt and then Robinson emerged so it was kind of an imperfect storm. This kind of reminds me of the old Harrison/Wayne dynamic with Dez obviously being the new guy who is "going to overpass the old guy this year" and then it never really happens sooner than you think and the new guy is overdrafted while the old guy is underdrafted. I think if healthy he still produces like a low end WR1 that you can get as a WR2. Throw in a late August preseason highlight catch by Dez and his value increases even more. ;)
 
I understand this isn't Player Spotlight related, but consider picking both of them up to remove guessing wrong between them. You remove the risk of guessing wrong and end up with two very talented WRs at a good price in a passing offense. Yes, you then incur the risk of needing Romo to stay healthy, but there are far worse #2s than Orton.

Sorry for the diversion. Get back to the assessment of Austin!

 
I understand this isn't Player Spotlight related, but consider picking both of them up to remove guessing wrong between them. You remove the risk of guessing wrong and end up with two very talented WRs at a good price in a passing offense. Yes, you then incur the risk of needing Romo to stay healthy, but there are far worse #2s than Orton.

Sorry for the diversion. Get back to the assessment of Austin!
No worries, it is an interesting thought and I'll try to break it down. First off, you'll likely be forced to overpay for both of them. With their ADPs at 41 and 45, you'll have to take Bryant in the 3rd and Austin in the 4th despite Bryant going mid-4th and Austin going late-4th. So you'll probaby be drafting them around WR10-12 and WR12-14. You'd need them both to perform like WR1s at that point (or that their combined totals average out to 2x WR12.5) and that is just to break even. I don't doubt this offense could make that happen, especially if one of them breaks out with a top 5 performance. At that point, your problem is just a weekly one. There will almost certainly be one or two games this year where Romo doesn't throw a TD (and definitely several games where he doesn't throw one to either of those 2 guys), so that will hurt as neither of your top 2 WR will be producing. Not to mention the bye week which will be a killer unless you hit a home run on some sleepers.Either way, I think you could win with this duo, but I don't think anyone should be drafting with that angle in mind. If they fall to you and present value, then don't hesitate, but I probably won't be drafting Bryant ahead of Austin, so this duo won't be in my lineup.

 
Thanks for the well thought out response. Yes, they'd have to be taken in the 3rd and 4th round, probably making them your #1 & 2 WRs. But to your other points:

1) In the past 3 years Romo has played in 42 games (excluding week 16 last year where he had 2 attempts) and only had zero TDs in 4 of them (68 TDs in total).

2) I think a conservative estimate for him this year is 30. Where will they go?

F Jones/Murray - 2 Max?

Witten - 6 Max?

Ogletree - 3 Max?

Others - 2 Max?

If the above are close, that leaves 17 unaccounted for, a decent number across these two guys, pretty good considering it means you've waited until the 3rd round to get your #1 WR.

 
In the past 3 years the WRs have caught 24, 18, and 27 TDs so there is definitely a chance that both Bryant and Miles could catch 10. The TEs caught 2, 9, and 6 in those years while the RBs caught 0, 2, and 0. But keep in mind the middle year had a lot of Kitna. Last year the WR distribution was Robinson 11, Bryant 9, Austin 7. In 2009 it was Austin 11, Roy Williams 7, Crayton 5.

As for 1) I was thinking back to when Brees threw a TD in each game he was one of only a few guys to throw a TD in each game of the season, so that's why I'd expect 1-2 games from Romo without a passing TD. For the record, I think Brees' streak is still going through 2 seasons.

 
The interesting thing about Kitna was that he loved Witten in the red zone (the 9 TDs...) and Romo doesn't. My bottom line for Austin, and this is being conservative:

85/1100/8

 
Value play IMHO.

His current hammy issues are dropping his ADP even more, which is music to my ears.

It's more important to understand he will be a great PPG player. Don't concentrate so much on projecting static year end totals.

 
he was out for a month before putting in three consecutive practices - I don't think he's 100 percent - I can't see him going off vs the Giants.

 
Austin (when healthy) has all the tools needed to thrive. A pro-bowl QB in a passing oriented offense, dangerous receiving options on the field (Bryant, Witten), a run game that is respectable, and a defense that allows points/shootouts. Barring injury to him or Romo there is no way he's not a top 10 WR. And I hate the Cowboys.

 
The hammy issue worries me enough that I had a golden opportunity to steal him in the 6th round last night and passed. Hammies are tricky for WR's and been thru enough season long nagging injuries with other star recievers to get too excited. Love the talent though. If fully healthy he'd be a top 10 candidate for sure. It's a risk/reward scenario. Good luck to all that drafted him. I may be kicking myself for not trusting in him.

 
Austin has suffered injuries for as long as he has been a cowboy. There is never an accurate way to assess the probability of one player being injured, but his current rank does reflect the injury risk. The games that he does play in should be money. All the hype about the backfield surrounds Murray, but Jones is still on the roster and healthy. I bring up Jones is his pass blocking ability

Felix Jones stayed in to block on 107 passing snaps and allowed four pressures (one sack, three hurries). Over the last three years, Jones has allowed eight pressures on 157 pass protection snaps for a PBE of 3.98, the tenth best rate over that timespan.
In the Cowboys system pass blocking is an important role for the RB's as well as TE. We all know that Witten is also a good blocker. This will help alleviate the struggling offensive line, which has shown little to no signs of improving over last year.If Dez steps into the spotlight I could see Austin spending more time in the slot and becoming particularly valuable in PPR formats. He is definitely more quick than fast, and has highly underrated strength (IMO). I say he is a great value at his ADP, because it compensates for his injury risk, and undervalues what should be a potent pass attack in Dallas again this year.
 
The hammy issue worries me enough that I had a golden opportunity to steal him in the 6th round last night and passed. Hammies are tricky for WR's and been thru enough season long nagging injuries with other star recievers to get too excited. Love the talent though. If fully healthy he'd be a top 10 candidate for sure. It's a risk/reward scenario. Good luck to all that drafted him. I may be kicking myself for not trusting in him.
Agree-- I would be weary if he was my WR1 or even WR2, but he makes for a great WR3/Flex option. Huge upside if he's healthy.
 
Very troubling that he's already having hamstring issues, but I think he's a virtual lock for WR1 PPG numbers while healthy. Crazy value at WR24 SS and WR26 PPR. If the hamstrings act up, I'd definitely try to trade for him in the hope that he'll get healthy in time for the fantasy playoffs. His value will bottom out should he miss any time. People aren't typically married to 6th round draft picks.

 
Very troubling that he's already having hamstring issues, but I think he's a virtual lock for WR1 PPG numbers while healthy.
This is the key. He is a PPG play, not a year end total play.All too often the focus is on year-end stats.
 
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