MJD: How early is too early? (1 Viewer)

[sportsphysio]

I have the 10th pick in a 10 team, non-ppr, redraft. I am giving serious thought to drafting MJD with one of my first picks (Serpentine draft), as I think that this will be the year Fred Taylor breaks down and MJD breaks out. How would you guys feel about starting your team out like this:

1. Portis and MJD

2. TO/Moss and MJD

It is safe to say that he will not last until my next picks at 30 and 31. Would it be too risky to use a 2.01 pick on him?

 

[Fantaholic]

 

[ceo3west]

I have the 10th pick in a 10 team, non-ppr, redraft. I am giving serious thought to drafting MJD with one of my first picks (Serpentine draft), as I think that this will be the year Fred Taylor breaks down and MJD breaks out. How would you guys feel about starting your team out like this:1. Portis and MJD2. TO/Moss and MJDIt is safe to say that he will not last until my next picks at 30 and 31. Would it be too risky to use a 2.01 pick on him?

I wouldn't take him over Portis to pair with a WR, but if you're going 2 RB's you could do a lot worse. I personally love MJD this year.

 

[Chaos Commish]

I think that this will be the year Fred Taylor breaks down and MJD breaks out.

It is safe to say that he will not last until my next picks at 30 and 31. Would it be too risky to use a 2.01 pick on him?

By the way you explain this it would be too risky not to use 2.01 on him. This is what doing your own projections and drafing your team is all about. I felt the same way about Jamal Lewis one year when he was being drafted in the late second and I had to take him at 2.01 or lose him. I took him a little earlier than most, no biggie. 2000 yards later... Do it if you believe what you say you believe. ADPs, consensus rankings, expert projections are all just a very loose guide.

Also, this type of draft position issue is another argument of auctions.

 

[Tchula]

if you can have Lynch at the turn, he is a much safer pick IMO than MJD, AND much more consistent. If MJD isnt winning you the game, he is COSTING you the game.

 

[the spanker]

I go back and forth on MJD as to where to draft him. Yesterday in a mock I chose Andre Johnson in the 2nd over him in PPR. Very difficult choice for me.

 

[manhands]

I have the 12th pick in a 14 team redraft non ppr serpentine league and i'm taking MJD. I love him this year! If you think he's gonna have a great season then take him. I am.

 

[sportsphysio]

I have the 12th pick in a 14 team redraft non ppr serpentine league and i'm taking MJD. I love him this year! If you think he's gonna have a great season then take him. I am.

I also feel real good about him this year. I think that the balance of touches will go his way this year, as they try to keep Taylor healthy for the entire year.

 

[Letum]

If you like him where you're drafting, take him. Especially if you won't get another chance before you draft again. Consensus projections are fallible. Take chances. Bask in the glory if you are right, and accept the fact that you made a bad call if you're wrong. Don't let others run your team.

 

[Blackjacks]

I just got done drafting my last team and for the first time ever I own MJD. I drafted Portis with the #8 overall and luckily got MJD with the #17 overall. He was just to good of value at that point for me to pass on.

 

[Tanner9919]

I don't know how you take a part time player like MJD over a full time stud like Portis or Lynch or anyone else that will still be available in the 2nd round,for that matter..

man, there are a lot of MJD Kool-Aid drinkers in the Shark Pool these days..

 

[sdsjr3]

I don't know how you take a part time player like MJD over a full time stud like Portis or Lynch or anyone else that will still be available in the 2nd round,for that matter.. man, there are a lot of MJD Kool-Aid drinkers in the Shark Pool these days..

I too am confused by this. Fred has shown he's durable these past few years. What makes anyone think this year is different? And last year Fred looked like he has pretty youthful legs I thought. he was quick and tough. Did I miss where Del Rio anointed MJD the starter? Further, until the end of the season last year MJD pretty much was worthless. Everyone was waiting with baited breath for Fred to give way late in games to MJD and it rarely happened. When he spelled Fred last year he was ineffective for the most part. I think MJD is a good RB, and I think he'll have certain value to a team that goes WR heavy and looks to pick up marginal RB depth if MJD would fall. Problem is that in every draft I see him going a full round earler than I think he should.Granted, this is one man's opinion but I'm sticking to it and letting others reach for a part-time player early while I draft the Fitzgeralds, Calvin Johnsons and Cotcherys. And I'll be just as happy with a Lendale White, Maurice Morris, Jon Stewart or Ricky williams as my RB2 in the 5th and 6th round or later.

 

[Wu-banger]

got lucky enough to grab him in the 3rd (day after his ankle sprain) ... to pair with MB3 and Moss.

Was shocked he was there , and even though I am not that high on him I think he would be great to pair with Barber's consitentsy.

Can not see taking him over a true #1 like Portis ... Lynch .... etc though.

 

[Sabertooth]

I don't know how you take a part time player like MJD over a full time stud like Portis or Lynch or anyone else that will still be available in the 2nd round,for that matter.. man, there are a lot of MJD Kool-Aid drinkers in the Shark Pool these days..

So you'd draft Lynch over ADP then too?

 

[sdsjr3]

I don't know how you take a part time player like MJD over a full time stud like Portis or Lynch or anyone else that will still be available in the 2nd round,for that matter.. man, there are a lot of MJD Kool-Aid drinkers in the Shark Pool these days..

So you'd draft Lynch over ADP then too?

Ridiculous. People have short memories. That argument holds no merit here what-so-ever. ADP is most likely going to get close to 20 carries a game. You add to that the fact that he's running behind the best o-line in football and his talent is off the charts, how can you make such a comment?what is MJD guarenteed? Seriously. You think Fred isn't going to get his touches? It would be very different if MJD was in a situation where he could legitimately take the #1 job based on him simply being a better RB. That's not the case here. yeah he's good, but so is Fred. You want a RB with a statline that goes 13pts one week to 4pts the next? Well then MJD is your man. Again, on a team that drafts other positions heavily at the beginning, he's a solid pick. But not for a team that is going RB RB.

 

[geoff8695]

I don't know how you take a part time player like MJD over a full time stud like Portis or Lynch or anyone else that will still be available in the 2nd round,for that matter..

man, there are a lot of MJD Kool-Aid drinkers in the Shark Pool these days..

It is obvious that MJD has a great deal of upside yet you consistently show up in MJD threads to criticize him and write him off as a "part-time player". Why is that?

I know you don't believe his production will increase this year, so from that standpoint, it's fair for you to caution against taking MJD too early in redrafts. However, he has shown himself to be no worse than a high end RB2 (in non-PPR) even while sharing carries with Taylor. That's a pretty high 'floor' in fantasy terms, so isn't it kind of silly to imply that MJD isn't even worthy of a 2nd round pick?

 

[baconisgood]

I too am confused by this. Fred has shown he's durable these past few years.

Fred Taylor's touches last 5 yearsRus/game Recep/game21.6 3.018.6 2.617.6 1.215.4 1.514.9 0.6Definite trend, barring an injury to MJD last year was likely his ceiling for this year.

Did I miss where Del Rio anointed MJD the starter? Further, until the end of the season last year MJD pretty much was worthless. Everyone was waiting with baited breath for Fred to give way late in games to MJD and it rarely happened. When he spelled Fred last year he was ineffective for the most part.

By late in the year do you mean week 4? week 1- 5 ptsweek 2- 4 ptsweek 3- 4 ptsweek 4- 15 ptsweek 5- 29 ptsweek 6- 12 ptsweek 7- 5 ptsweek 8- 5 ptsweek 9- 18 pts (this starts a string of 4 games with 1 td in each)Hes a boom or bust player, hes going to frustrate some weeks and other weeks win you your game.

 

[Barooo]

Personally; I think burning the 1st pick of the 2nd round on him is too early. I drafted him in one league with the 3.03 pick...to me that is value. When it comes to a draft; I am looking for value...I don't want to overpay...but if I truly believe someone is better than their projections..then I would do it.

It is all about personal opinion and one thing is for sure...we all have one.

Also..think of it this way....."if" you take him in Rd. 2.....what do you imagine your WR corp to look like at the next wrap around? If you think MJD is worth sacrificing your WR corp; then do it. If you want to have 2 WR2s and no stud; then do it. Think of it as a trade-off for your entire team and not just the 2nd round pick.

 

[teamroc]

I don't know how you take a part time player like MJD over a full time stud like Portis or Lynch or anyone else that will still be available in the 2nd round,for that matter.. man, there are a lot of MJD Kool-Aid drinkers in the Shark Pool these days..

I too am confused by this. Fred has shown he's durable these past few years. What makes anyone think this year is different? And last year Fred looked like he has pretty youthful legs I thought. he was quick and tough. Did I miss where Del Rio anointed MJD the starter? Further, until the end of the season last year MJD pretty much was worthless. Everyone was waiting with baited breath for Fred to give way late in games to MJD and it rarely happened. When he spelled Fred last year he was ineffective for the most part. I think MJD is a good RB, and I think he'll have certain value to a team that goes WR heavy and looks to pick up marginal RB depth if MJD would fall. Problem is that in every draft I see him going a full round earler than I think he should.Granted, this is one man's opinion but I'm sticking to it and letting others reach for a part-time player early while I draft the Fitzgeralds, Calvin Johnsons and Cotcherys. And I'll be just as happy with a Lendale White, Maurice Morris, Jon Stewart or Ricky williams as my RB2 in the 5th and 6th round or later.

Cotcherys. hahahahaha. oh lawd.full time? part time? he's been a top 12 rb in back to back years. which is a small pool of rbs. i dont care if he gets 3 touches a game. if he gets 90 yards and 2 tds, ill take it. list the rbs who will be there at 1.10 that have out performced mjd in the last 2 years. the number is like 0.

 

[Sabertooth]

I don't know how you take a part time player like MJD over a full time stud like Portis or Lynch or anyone else that will still be available in the 2nd round,for that matter..

man, there are a lot of MJD Kool-Aid drinkers in the Shark Pool these days..

So you'd draft Lynch over ADP then too?

Ridiculous. People have short memories. That argument holds no merit here what-so-ever. ADP is most likely going to get close to 20 carries a game. You add to that the fact that he's running behind the best o-line in football and his talent is off the charts, how can you make such a comment?

what is MJD guarenteed? Seriously. You think Fred isn't going to get his touches? It would be very different if MJD was in a situation where he could legitimately take the #1 job based on him simply being a better RB. That's not the case here. yeah he's good, but so is Fred. You want a RB with a statline that goes 13pts one week to 4pts the next? Well then MJD is your man. Again, on a team that drafts other positions heavily at the beginning, he's a solid pick. But not for a team that is going RB RB.

Link to the Vikings having the best line in football. Link to where he isn't splitting carries with Taylor? MJD isn't talented?

 

[geoff8695]

I don't know how you take a part time player like MJD over a full time stud like Portis or Lynch or anyone else that will still be available in the 2nd round,for that matter.. man, there are a lot of MJD Kool-Aid drinkers in the Shark Pool these days..

So you'd draft Lynch over ADP then too?

Ridiculous. People have short memories. That argument holds no merit here what-so-ever. ADP is most likely going to get close to 20 carries a game. You add to that the fact that he's running behind the best o-line in football and his talent is off the charts, how can you make such a comment?what is MJD guarenteed? Seriously. You think Fred isn't going to get his touches? It would be very different if MJD was in a situation where he could legitimately take the #1 job based on him simply being a better RB. That's not the case here. yeah he's good, but so is Fred. You want a RB with a statline that goes 13pts one week to 4pts the next? Well then MJD is your man. Again, on a team that drafts other positions heavily at the beginning, he's a solid pick. But not for a team that is going RB RB.

I agree with you in not recommending MJD to be drafted as your #1 back, but I have to totally disagree with you that he isn't an excellent choice for the owner that goes RB RB with the 1st two picks. He has already shown us that he can turn 200 touches into low end RB1 or high end RB2 production, so why wouldn't you want that type of production from your 2nd RB drafted? Especially when you consider that there is room for more touches for him in the Jacksonville backfield. Unless of course you insist that MJD is going to be injured, or that a 32 year old RB coming off his career high YPC is going to just keep getting better with age.You also named Lendale White, Maurice Morris, Jon Stewart or Ricky Williams as RBs that you would be just as happy with this year as MJD. Barring injury, MJD will easily outscore all four of these RBs in 2008. Nor would I want to have to rely on any of these guys as my RB2. Good luck with that strategy...

 

[TD Ryan]

Hes a boom or bust player, hes going to frustrate some weeks and other weeks win you your game.

this was true for MJD last year (boom/bust).but not in his rookie year.

with the way the JAX offense struggled early on (the Leftwich release, only scoring 20+ points once in the first 5 week)

and with the way Fred Taylor played (5.4 ypc, healthy all year), I believe that was the worst case scenario for MJD.

Fred Taylor is 32 years old, in his 11th NFL season. The odds of him playing a full season and averaging 5.4 ypc again are low.

Add to it all that there was some merit to the idea the Fred had never made a ProBowl and the team/coaches wanted to give him every opportunity to get there.

and now, with IND having their toughest battle with injuries since the Manning era began (Maninning, Harrison, Saturday, all less than 100%), this could be the year that JAX can win that division.

I don't know if I'd draft MJD in the early second round. I'm glad I don't have to make that decision.

But it isn't unreasonable to think that this guy *should* be in a better position to improve on last year's numbers and *could* be among the fantasy elites if all the chips fall his way finally.

 

[sdsjr3]

I don't know how you take a part time player like MJD over a full time stud like Portis or Lynch or anyone else that will still be available in the 2nd round,for that matter..

man, there are a lot of MJD Kool-Aid drinkers in the Shark Pool these days..

So you'd draft Lynch over ADP then too? :X

Ridiculous. People have short memories. That argument holds no merit here what-so-ever. ADP is most likely going to get close to 20 carries a game. You add to that the fact that he's running behind the best o-line in football and his talent is off the charts, how can you make such a comment?

what is MJD guarenteed? Seriously. You think Fred isn't going to get his touches? It would be very different if MJD was in a situation where he could legitimately take the #1 job based on him simply being a better RB. That's not the case here. yeah he's good, but so is Fred. You want a RB with a statline that goes 13pts one week to 4pts the next? Well then MJD is your man. Again, on a team that drafts other positions heavily at the beginning, he's a solid pick. But not for a team that is going RB RB.

I agree with you in not recommending MJD to be drafted as your #1 back, but I have to totally disagree with you that he isn't an excellent choice for the owner that goes RB RB with the 1st two picks. He has already shown us that he can turn 200 touches into low end RB1 or high end RB2 production, so why wouldn't you want that type of production from your 2nd RB drafted? Especially when you consider that there is room for more touches for him in the Jacksonville backfield. Unless of course you insist that MJD is going to be injured, or that a 32 year old RB coming off his career high YPC is going to just keep getting better with age.You also named Lendale White, Maurice Morris, Jon Stewart or Ricky Williams as RBs that you would be just as happy with this year as MJD. Barring injury, MJD will easily outscore all four of these RBs in 2008. Nor would I want to have to rely on any of these guys as my RB2. Good luck with that strategy...

thanks, appreciate the well wishes!Look, I think MJD is a solid talent. My point is this. if your philosophy is to draft value then I think taking MJD in rd 2 isn't the best case scenario. There are lots of WRs that will carry value into RD2. IF you go with a WR in RD1, I could see an argument for MJD at middle/end of Rd2 depending on league size.

The reality is this...we all have our opinions. I still like Fred. I didn't the MJD looked all that good last year despite him having some very "BOOM" weeks. In '06 he looked like a much tougher runner IMO. I have no idea why this is, and I didn't see every game. I had him on 1 team last year and he was a huge headache. If Fred is out of the picture, I really do think MJD becomes a very very solid option as RB1. He seems to benefit more when he's seeing more than a touch here or there though.

Bottom line is that for me, I really don't like taking that boom/bust type player in Rd 2, I think this year offers a lot of consistency at WR and I'd prefer to go there in Rd2. that said, I think there is also a lot of solid value at RB after Rd4 in most drafts.

 

[Gr00vus]

MJD puts up a top 5 RB performance this year. If you can get him in the 2nd round do it.

 

[LawFitz]

Does your league reward individual players for return yards???

My league gives 1 pt per 10 ru/rc yds and 1 pt per 20 return yards plus 0.5 PPR. In this format MJD was the #4 RB two years ago and th #6 RB last year.

If you get points for return yards then this is a no brainer, take him and run.

 

[sdsjr3]

Does your league reward individual players for return yards???My league gives 1 pt per 10 ru/rc yds and 1 pt per 20 return yards plus 0.5 PPR. In this format MJD was the #4 RB two years ago and th #6 RB last year.If you get points for return yards then this is a no brainer, take him and run.

Agreed. If return yards count...no brainer.

 

[goldenchild]

MJD puts up a top 5 RB performance this year. If you can get him in the 2nd round do it.

I sure hope you're right... I just drafted MJD in the 3rd after going Brady and Fitz with the first 2.

 

[sdsjr3]

MJD puts up a top 5 RB performance this year. If you can get him in the 2nd round do it.

I sure hope you're right... I just drafted MJD in the 3rd after going Brady and Fitz with the first 2.

Now that's great value for him...and a great pick.

 

[strykerpks]

I kept MJD this year for pick 2.18 in my 12-team, keep a max of 2 league. I struggled with that decision for sure. My draft is on Sunday and I still don't know if I'm going to try for a more solid RB1 type with 1.06 or if I'm going to go with a stud WR.

Ultimately you'll have to decide your own draft strategy around that. Our league has been trending towards WRs the past 2 years or so. If I had to go today, I think I'll be going WR, MJD, WR, RB/WR, RB/WR. That has changed a few times in the past week and probably will change again by then. It may or may not work but thats half the fun. Have you noticed any league trends regarding the first 4 or so rounds of the draft? What do the owners around you normally do?

 

[Bl Deep]

The big time problem with MJD is that people have looked at his TDs/Carry ratio and presume he is a lock for 10+ tds, i think TDs are fickle.... You know he isn't going to get a full RB share of touches, but he has made up for it with TD production... If he has a 6 TD year, he is a GIANT bust.

 

[scrumptrulescent]

The big time problem with MJD is that people have looked at his TDs/Carry ratio and presume he is a lock for 10+ tds, i think TDs are fickle.... You know he isn't going to get a full RB share of touches, but he has made up for it with TD production... If he has a 6 TD year, he is a GIANT bust.

"If" is the operative word here. If he had a 6 TD year he's a giant bust. If he had a 20 TD year he'd win leagues. If Fred Taylor gets hurt he'd win leagues. If Jacksonville decides to make it more of a 50/50 rbbc MJD would probably get over 1000 and 12 td's. If, if, if.TD's are fickle but then so are injuries. Taylor is 32 and will slow down at some point. I know I made a fistful of cash the year Priest Holmes went down and I swiped LJ from the Holmes owner in the draft. MJD has shown in the prior 2 seasons to be a pretty good #2 RB with all kinds of potential to explode. He could end up a giant bust or a top 5 RB this year. Or he could go on being a solid #2 RB.

 

[Gr00vus]

The big time problem with MJD is that people have looked at his TDs/Carry ratio and presume he is a lock for 10+ tds, i think TDs are fickle.... You know he isn't going to get a full RB share of touches, but he has made up for it with TD production... If he has a 6 TD year, he is a GIANT bust.

I think you have to bet on his track record so far rather than against it when it comes to the TD production. Hey breaks them from all over the field in a variety of ways, but the key is that he gets goal line carries and is pretty effective at converting. If you're thinking he's not going to get 10 or more TDs you'd have to be projecting a serious drop in the overall Jacksonville offensive production.

 

[Jayrod]

The big time problem with MJD is that people have looked at his TDs/Carry ratio and presume he is a lock for 10+ tds, i think TDs are fickle.... You know he isn't going to get a full RB share of touches, but he has made up for it with TD production... If he has a 6 TD year, he is a GIANT bust.

But what about Marion Barber or LT's TD predictions? MBIII is highly regarded as a TD machine because his team relies on him inside the 5 and they have a good offense. The same is true of Jacksonville. Their offense is really good and MJD is their goalline back. Unless MJD gets hurt or the Jags as a team really dissappoint, there is no way he finishes with 6 TD's. I consider what he had last year (9, I believe) as his floor. His role will only increase this year and the team is dead set on having a big season.I've been on the MJD wagon for two seasons so far, but then again, this is in a return yardage league where he has been RB4 two years in a row.

 

[Largent]

MJD gets all carries inside the 10, which to me, is a good RB2. 6 points for TD leagues, I always look for the guy that might not get all the carries or yards....

As a Seahawks homer, Zorn might not lean as heavy on Portis as people think. That offense is a lot of short WR patterns and with Betts being capable - might not see a lot of TD's from Clint.

So - Moss/MJD at the turn.

* I have both, so just my .02

 

[baconisgood]

I think you have to bet on his track record so far rather than against it when it comes to the TD production. Hey breaks them from all over the field in a variety of ways, but the key is that he gets goal line carries and is pretty effective at converting

Its not just that he gets the goal line carries, he gets the majority of the carries inside the 20 which essentially guarantees a high TD to carry ratio and means few stolen TD carries.

 

[ShadowMaster]

I have the 10th pick in a 10 team, non-ppr, redraft. I am giving serious thought to drafting MJD with one of my first picks (Serpentine draft), as I think that this will be the year Fred Taylor breaks down and MJD breaks out. How would you guys feel about starting your team out like this:1. Portis and MJD2. TO/Moss and MJDIt is safe to say that he will not last until my next picks at 30 and 31. Would it be too risky to use a 2.01 pick on him?

3. Portis and TO/MossDidn't read the whole thread, so sorry if a dupe.

 

[sportsphysio]

Wow, great thread guys, thanks for the discussion! Personally, I have bumped MJD up in my rankings for several reasons:

1. I think that the Jags will need to run Taylor less to keep him healthy all year (the RBBC system works well for them, and they will want to ensure it remains intact for the playoff run). This means more touches for MJD, and he maintains his goalline dominance.

2. The Jags offense should be pretty stout this year.

3. My league has points for individual player return yards/TD's.

Here is what I am hoping for out of my first 4 rounds (10 teamer):

1.10 = Portis/Lynch

2.01 = MJD

3.10 = Burress/Colston/CalJohnson

4.01 = S.Smith

That wouldn't be too bad of a start, no? And if the fantasy gods are looking down on me, maybe B. Marshall in 5th and J.Stewart in 6th!

 

[Jayrod]

Wow, great thread guys, thanks for the discussion! Personally, I have bumped MJD up in my rankings for several reasons:

1. I think that the Jags will need to run Taylor less to keep him healthy all year (the RBBC system works well for them, and they will want to ensure it remains intact for the playoff run). This means more touches for MJD, and he maintains his goalline dominance.

2. The Jags offense should be pretty stout this year.

3. My league has points for individual player return yards/TD's.

Here is what I am hoping for out of my first 4 rounds (10 teamer):

1.10 = Portis/Lynch

2.01 = MJD

3.10 = Burress/Colston/CalJohnson

4.01 = S.Smith

That wouldn't be too bad of a start, no? And if the fantasy gods are looking down on me, maybe B. Marshall in 5th and J.Stewart in 6th!

In these leagues, MJD is top 10 with top 3 potential. He'll either get return yards or become the feature back if FT goes down. Return yards are like insurance against bad games. All the boom/bust talk becomes moot. Pray he makes it to you.

 

[jose481]

Ok, MJD owner here, here's an attempt at being somewhat objective that fails in the end.

MJD is definitely underrated this year, considering last year he was going early second round. He proved last year he wasn't a one-year wonder, his return yards and rec's balance out low rushing yardage/no TD games, and then he can blow up and give you a victory in any given week. Something people were saying about AP/Chester last year reminds me of MJD/Taylor situation: both situations were seen as RBBCs, and Taylor's presence caused AP to be undervalued last year, yet it probably helped him in the long run by keeping him fresh and not wearing him down. Bottom line I think is that what others have been saying about the death of the RB RB theory is true; entrenched starting RBs w/ no competition are no longer the absolute must-haves they once were - they are still important no doubt, but the idea that backs sharing time cannot produce like no.1's/high-end 2's is being proved false by the likes of MJD, AP, Barber (w/Jones past two years), and others. And since the whole RBBC cloud at times devalues these types of players, it's that much easier to snatch up explosive, high-upside RB's like AP last year and see which ones take off (got him for $14 in a $300 auction league, standard scoring plus ret. yards 15/pt, PPR), MJD ($63 this yr), CJ ($2, a random luck pick before the hype really took off), rather than their limited upside "no.1" counterparts: C Taylor, F taylor, Julius, LenDale, etc.

For PPR drafters imo MJD 3rd round is a bargain, mid 2nd is right about on target.

 

[Assani Fisher]

Does your league reward individual players for return yards???My league gives 1 pt per 10 ru/rc yds and 1 pt per 20 return yards plus 0.5 PPR. In this format MJD was the #4 RB two years ago and th #6 RB last year.If you get points for return yards then this is a no brainer, take him and run.

Agreed. If return yards count...no brainer.

Agreed. If return yards count...no brainer.

 

[greyone]

ppr...late second early third(me)

10 teamer...same as ppr

12 teamer...late second..borderline reach

 

[Gatorman]

I cannot say I agree here. MJD is a team killer. He is the lee evans of RBs. At the end of the year his totals look good, but game to game you have no idea what he will get you.

If you look at the "quality start" article by Pasquerino (sp): MJDs numbers were 4/5/6, (4 games over 16 points, 5 games between 10-16, and 6 games under 10). Portis was 8/7/1. Jamal Lewis (going a full round or 2 later) was 8/2/5, and even Reggie Bush (going around he same time or a little after in PPR) was 8/2/2. His numbers are based on the flow of that offense and while I like his "type" of back, I liked it better when he was named Dunn and was available in the 5th round.

Return yardage does make him a no brainer pick, but that also makes Devin hester and Tedd Ginn 5th rounders, so lets leave that out.

The guy who had MJD in our local last year scored the second highest points of anyone. However, he missed the playoffs bc the way his team scored points (feast or famine) screwed his W/L record.

In a total points league, I'll take the MJDs and the Lee Evans' all day. HTH, not so much. (that being said, I would take MJD in the mid third or so, and evans would be on my team in the 6th round or later. Sometimes you have to value players for what they are, not what you hope they will be)

IMHO,

Gator

 

[Funkley]

I cannot say I agree here. MJD is a team killer. He is the lee evans of RBs. At the end of the year his totals look good, but game to game you have no idea what he will get you.If you look at the "quality start" article by Pasquerino (sp): MJDs numbers were 4/5/6, (4 games over 16 points, 5 games between 10-16, and 6 games under 10). Portis was 8/7/1. Jamal Lewis (going a full round or 2 later) was 8/2/5, and even Reggie Bush (going around he same time or a little after in PPR) was 8/2/2. His numbers are based on the flow of that offense and while I like his "type" of back, I liked it better when he was named Dunn and was available in the 5th round. Return yardage does make him a no brainer pick, but that also makes Devin hester and Tedd Ginn 5th rounders, so lets leave that out.The guy who had MJD in our local last year scored the second highest points of anyone. However, he missed the playoffs bc the way his team scored points (feast or famine) screwed his W/L record.In a total points league, I'll take the MJDs and the Lee Evans' all day. HTH, not so much. (that being said, I would take MJD in the mid third or so, and evans would be on my team in the 6th round or later. Sometimes you have to value players for what they are, not what you hope they will be)IMHO,Gator

Excellent post. Consider me an MJD fan but this post represents how you have to view him realistically.

 

[Keepers]

I agree with others that late 1st and early 2nd are too early for MJD. Taylor had 1200 yds with a 5.4 avg last year (1100 yds and 5 avg the year before), MJD had 770 yds and a 4.6 avg. Granted MJD had more TDs and more points from receiving yds, but even still for him to be a legit 1st round pick or early 2nd, Taylor needs to get injured. I don't know about you but I don't want to have to count on an injury for a player to live up to 1st round status.

 

[big0mar]

MJD has 24 TDs over the last two seasons.

There is no way he gets less touches than last season. He can only improve at this point.

 

[sdsjr3]

I cannot say I agree here. MJD is a team killer. He is the lee evans of RBs. At the end of the year his totals look good, but game to game you have no idea what he will get you.If you look at the "quality start" article by Pasquerino (sp): MJDs numbers were 4/5/6, (4 games over 16 points, 5 games between 10-16, and 6 games under 10). Portis was 8/7/1. Jamal Lewis (going a full round or 2 later) was 8/2/5, and even Reggie Bush (going around he same time or a little after in PPR) was 8/2/2. His numbers are based on the flow of that offense and while I like his "type" of back, I liked it better when he was named Dunn and was available in the 5th round. Return yardage does make him a no brainer pick, but that also makes Devin hester and Tedd Ginn 5th rounders, so lets leave that out.The guy who had MJD in our local last year scored the second highest points of anyone. However, he missed the playoffs bc the way his team scored points (feast or famine) screwed his W/L record.In a total points league, I'll take the MJDs and the Lee Evans' all day. HTH, not so much. (that being said, I would take MJD in the mid third or so, and evans would be on my team in the 6th round or later. Sometimes you have to value players for what they are, not what you hope they will be)IMHO,Gator

Very well said. this is pretty much what I've been saying...you just said it....well....better. Thanks.

 

[geoff8695]

I cannot say I agree here. MJD is a team killer. He is the lee evans of RBs. At the end of the year his totals look good, but game to game you have no idea what he will get you.

If you look at the "quality start" article by Pasquerino (sp): MJDs numbers were 4/5/6, (4 games over 16 points, 5 games between 10-16, and 6 games under 10). Portis was 8/7/1. Jamal Lewis (going a full round or 2 later) was 8/2/5, and even Reggie Bush (going around he same time or a little after in PPR) was 8/2/2. His numbers are based on the flow of that offense and while I like his "type" of back, I liked it better when he was named Dunn and was available in the 5th round.

Return yardage does make him a no brainer pick, but that also makes Devin hester and Tedd Ginn 5th rounders, so lets leave that out.

The guy who had MJD in our local last year scored the second highest points of anyone. However, he missed the playoffs bc the way his team scored points (feast or famine) screwed his W/L record.

In a total points league, I'll take the MJDs and the Lee Evans' all day. HTH, not so much. (that being said, I would take MJD in the mid third or so, and evans would be on my team in the 6th round or later. Sometimes you have to value players for what they are, not what you hope they will be)

IMHO,

Gator

I respect the effort Jeff Pasquerino put into his "quality start" article, but IMO it's a huge mistake to superimpose a 2007 analysis of consistency over one's 2008 projections. This is a very poor method for forecasting future consistency, and 15 games in MJD's sophomore season is too small a sample size to justify labeling MJD as a 'feast or famine' fantasy player. This limited analysis if applied to future projections assumes no change in productivity, workload, or usage patterns, and treats his 2007 season stats as if they occured within a vacuum. I don't believe there is much to be gained by forecasting MJD's consistency and future production in this manner. The most significant thing I would take away from Jeff's article (at least where MJD is concerned), is that it draws attention to his seemingly inconsistent fantasy production in 2007, and begs the question - why?Let's take into account that in 2007 the Jags brought in a new offensive coordinator, declared David Garrard the unquestioned #1 QB, released Leftwich altogether just before the regular season, and subsequently MJD got off to a very slow start. IMO the new OC needed time to figure out how to best utilize MJD and the Jags offense, contributing towards MJD's slow start. In Jeff's article the biggest hit to MJD's quality starts ratio are due to this slow start and the first 3 weeks were admittedly fantasy clunkers. However, if you look at his production from Jacksonville's 4th game on then his quality starts split becomes 4/5/3. That's quite a big difference from 4/5/6. Additionally, over the last 12 games played MJD averaged 13 fantasy pts. per game (non-PPR & not including return TDs). Surprisingly that means he was a low end RB1 for fantasy purposes over this 12 game stretch, despite having to share with Fred Taylor who was enjoying a career best YPC.

Even with Taylor's presence, MJD still had 207 touches in 15 games played, 40 receptions and 167 carries. That works out to 14 touches per game. He was also used in all stages of the game regardless of score, down or distance, including goal line and short distance work. In fact, MJD led the NFL in # of attempts on 3rd or 4th down and 3yds or less, and he converted 18 of 32 tries despite opposing defenses gunning for him. Yet he still put up very good rushing stats (4.6YPC) in what many considered a 'down' year. IMO that bodes very well for future production, particularly when you consider that only 4 of MJD's TDs were of the short yardage variety. Even if you insist on using his 2007 stats as your template for MJD's usage/consistency/fantasy production in 2008, then at the very least take from them that MJD is a complete NFL RB used in all situations, and that he has room for improving upon just 4 short yardage rushing touchdowns in a season. However, I think there are even better reasons for optimism regarding MJD's fantasy outlook going forward.

Consider also that in 2007 Fred Taylor enjoyed a career year of sorts (5.4 YPC), and that MJD only received 167 total carries. Taylor of course has been terrific for the last two seasons and has received 231 carries in '06 and 223 carries in '07 (when he had his career best 5.4 YPC). Unfortunately, career years at any age are usually followed by a 'regression to the mean' in the following season. Also, consider that Taylor will begin the 2008 season at 32 years of age and by season's end will be 33. Historically even the greatest NFL RBs don't achieve 5+ YPC at age 32. In fact over the last 40 years there are only 4 instances of a 32+ yr old RB carrying the football over 200 times while averaging 4+ YPC, and none of them averaged anything even close to 5 YPC. How realistic is it to expect Taylor to maintain a high YPC or even a 220-230+ carry workload going forward?

I sincerely doubt it, and I wonder if the Jacksonville coaching staff isn't thinking along the same lines... Head coach Jack Del Rio has already alluded to a larger role for MJD due to Taylor's advancing age. Earlier this year at a press conference prior to the NFL draft JDR said that the Jags are taking advantage of the fact that they have 'two very explosive backs', calling Jacksonville's backfield a 'luxury', and acknowledging that Taylor can't continue to maintain his skills indefinitely. Specifically he said, "we also know that Fred can't do it forever... at some point Fred will get less and Maurice will get more..." And despite acknowledging this prior to the draft, the Jaguars did nothing to bolster their backfield in what many considered to be a deep and talented draft at the RB position. Sounds to me like the Jaguars trust MJD to pick up slack as needed, and to take over in the event that Taylor faulters. Based on NFL history and the high regard that the Jags appear to have for MJD, I fully expect that 2008 will see MJD's # of carries equal or even exceed Taylor's.

I understand that many fantasy owners who were counting on him in the first three weeks of 2007 and were left with a very bad taste in their mouths, and I suspect that many of these same owners subsequently benched him only to be infuriated with MJD's inconsistent production as his points were then wasted on the bench. Perhaps that's where a lot of the MJD venom is coming from this year, and this "quality start" analysis then serves as only a painful reminder of his slow start last year. But if we use the "quality starter" ratio of 2007 to filter our future predictions, then we miss out on the critical revelations of 2007 that hint at even better production in 2008 and beyond. Namely that MJD proved his rookie season was no fluke, that he remains the undisputed short yardage/goal line back, the primary receiving back, and earned the trust of the Jagurs coaching staff to be on the field in any situation, down or distance.

I am expecting MJD to be a good 2nd round value this year, and even in non-PPR leagues and I would be shocked to see him available in the 3rd round. If you have an opportunity to grab him as a 2nd rounder I would strongly urge you to take him, because his floor is very high (high end RB2) and his ceiling is ridiculous.

 

[big0mar]

I cannot say I agree here. MJD is a team killer. He is the lee evans of RBs. At the end of the year his totals look good, but game to game you have no idea what he will get you.

If you look at the "quality start" article by Pasquerino (sp): MJDs numbers were 4/5/6, (4 games over 16 points, 5 games between 10-16, and 6 games under 10). Portis was 8/7/1. Jamal Lewis (going a full round or 2 later) was 8/2/5, and even Reggie Bush (going around he same time or a little after in PPR) was 8/2/2. His numbers are based on the flow of that offense and while I like his "type" of back, I liked it better when he was named Dunn and was available in the 5th round.

Return yardage does make him a no brainer pick, but that also makes Devin hester and Tedd Ginn 5th rounders, so lets leave that out.

The guy who had MJD in our local last year scored the second highest points of anyone. However, he missed the playoffs bc the way his team scored points (feast or famine) screwed his W/L record.

In a total points league, I'll take the MJDs and the Lee Evans' all day. HTH, not so much. (that being said, I would take MJD in the mid third or so, and evans would be on my team in the 6th round or later. Sometimes you have to value players for what they are, not what you hope they will be)

IMHO,

Gator

I respect the effort Jeff Pasquerino put into his "quality start" article, but IMO it's a huge mistake to superimpose a 2007 analysis of consistency over one's 2008 projections. This is a very poor method for forecasting future consistency, and 15 games in MJD's sophomore season is too small a sample size to justify labeling MJD as a 'feast or famine' fantasy player. This limited analysis if applied to future projections assumes no change in productivity, workload, or usage patterns, and treats his 2007 season stats as if they occured within a vacuum. I don't believe there is much to be gained by forecasting MJD's consistency and future production in this manner. The most significant thing I would take away from Jeff's article (at least where MJD is concerned), is that it draws attention to his seemingly inconsistent fantasy production in 2007, and begs the question - why?Let's take into account that in 2007 the Jags brought in a new offensive coordinator, declared David Garrard the unquestioned #1 QB, released Leftwich altogether just before the regular season, and subsequently MJD got off to a very slow start. IMO the new OC needed time to figure out how to best utilize MJD and the Jags offense, contributing towards MJD's slow start. In Jeff's article the biggest hit to MJD's quality starts ratio are due to this slow start and the first 3 weeks were admittedly fantasy clunkers. However, if you look at his production from Jacksonville's 4th game on then his quality starts split becomes 4/5/3. That's quite a big difference from 4/5/6. Additionally, over the last 12 games played MJD averaged 13 fantasy pts. per game (non-PPR & not including return TDs). Surprisingly that means he was a low end RB1 for fantasy purposes over this 12 game stretch, despite having to share with Fred Taylor who was enjoying a career best YPC.

Even with Taylor's presence, MJD still had 207 touches in 15 games played, 40 receptions and 167 carries. That works out to 14 touches per game. He was also used in all stages of the game regardless of score, down or distance, including goal line and short distance work. In fact, MJD led the NFL in # of attempts on 3rd or 4th down and 3yds or less, and he converted 18 of 32 tries despite opposing defenses gunning for him. Yet he still put up very good rushing stats (4.6YPC) in what many considered a 'down' year. IMO that bodes very well for future production, particularly when you consider that only 4 of MJD's TDs were of the short yardage variety. Even if you insist on using his 2007 stats as your template for MJD's usage/consistency/fantasy production in 2008, then at the very least take from them that MJD is a complete NFL RB used in all situations, and that he has room for improving upon just 4 short yardage rushing touchdowns in a season. However, I think there are even better reasons for optimism regarding MJD's fantasy outlook going forward.

Consider also that in 2007 Fred Taylor enjoyed a career year of sorts (5.4 YPC), and that MJD only received 167 total carries. Taylor of course has been terrific for the last two seasons and has received 231 carries in '06 and 223 carries in '07 (when he had his career best 5.4 YPC). Unfortunately, career years at any age are usually followed by a 'regression to the mean' in the following season. Also, consider that Taylor will begin the 2008 season at 32 years of age and by season's end will be 33. Historically even the greatest NFL RBs don't achieve 5+ YPC at age 32. In fact over the last 40 years there are only 4 instances of a 32+ yr old RB carrying the football over 200 times while averaging 4+ YPC, and none of them averaged anything even close to 5 YPC. How realistic is it to expect Taylor to maintain a high YPC or even a 220-230+ carry workload going forward?

I sincerely doubt it, and I wonder if the Jacksonville coaching staff isn't thinking along the same lines... Head coach Jack Del Rio has already alluded to a larger role for MJD due to Taylor's advancing age. Earlier this year at a press conference prior to the NFL draft JDR said that the Jags are taking advantage of the fact that they have 'two very explosive backs', calling Jacksonville's backfield a 'luxury', and acknowledging that Taylor can't continue to maintain his skills indefinitely. Specifically he said, "we also know that Fred can't do it forever... at some point Fred will get less and Maurice will get more..." And despite acknowledging this prior to the draft, the Jaguars did nothing to bolster their backfield in what many considered to be a deep and talented draft at the RB position. Sounds to me like the Jaguars trust MJD to pick up slack as needed, and to take over in the event that Taylor faulters. Based on NFL history and the high regard that the Jags appear to have for MJD, I fully expect that 2008 will see MJD's # of carries equal or even exceed Taylor's.

I understand that many fantasy owners who were counting on him in the first three weeks of 2007 and were left with a very bad taste in their mouths, and I suspect that many of these same owners subsequently benched him only to be infuriated with MJD's inconsistent production as his points were then wasted on the bench. Perhaps that's where a lot of the MJD venom is coming from this year, and this "quality start" analysis then serves as only a painful reminder of his slow start last year. But if we use the "quality starter" ratio of 2007 to filter our future predictions, then we miss out on the critical revelations of 2007 that hint at even better production in 2008 and beyond. Namely that MJD proved his rookie season was no fluke, that he remains the undisputed short yardage/goal line back, the primary receiving back, and earned the trust of the Jagurs coaching staff to be on the field in any situation, down or distance.

I am expecting MJD to be a good 2nd round value this year, and even in non-PPR leagues and I would be shocked to see him available in the 3rd round. If you have an opportunity to grab him as a 2nd rounder I would strongly urge you to take him, because his floor is very high (high end RB2) and his ceiling is ridiculous.

IMO, his floor is last season, and his ceiling is as high as anyones.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Once again... quality starts is just another way of saying FF PPG.

Bush 17.4 PPG

Portis 17.1 PPG

Lewis 16.5 PPG

MJD 13.8 PPG

So of course the others have more "quality starts." Their bell-curved distribution of points is skewed 3-4 points higher than MJD's.

And if someone wants to show that some top-tier players CONSISTENTLY (across multiple seasons) have a different distribution of points around their mean PPG - I'm all ears.

 

[geoff8695]

I agree with others that late 1st and early 2nd are too early for MJD. Taylor had 1200 yds with a 5.4 avg last year (1100 yds and 5 avg the year before), MJD had 770 yds and a 4.6 avg. Granted MJD had more TDs and more points from receiving yds, but even still for him to be a legit 1st round pick or early 2nd, Taylor needs to get injured. I don't know about you but I don't want to have to count on an injury for a player to live up to 1st round status.

Only backup RBs require an injury to the starter to attain 1st or 2nd round status. That's not what's being argued here, and I agree that a 1st round pick is probably too high for MJD. However, MJD needs only a modest increase in carries to solidify RB1 production. He was already receiving 14 touches per game in 2007 and only needs 3-4 more touches per game, so no injury to Taylor is necessary. Taylor regressing to the mean at age 32/33 and averaging closer to 4YPC rather than 5YPC ought to do the trick.