MJD: How early is too early? (1 Viewer)

[Keepers]

IMO, his floor is last season, and his ceiling is as high as anyones.

Is that floor & ceiling worth a 1st round pick or early/mid 2nd? The debate isn't whether he is a decent fantasy play, it is who does he get drafted before.

 

[Gatorman]

I am expecting MJD to be a good 2nd round value this year, and even in non-PPR leagues and I would be shocked to see him available in the 3rd round. If you have an opportunity to grab him as a 2nd rounder I would strongly urge you to take him, because his floor is very high (high end RB2) and his ceiling is ridiculous.

I am not going to quote the whole post and I will just say that we will agree to disagree here. If Fred Taylor went down tomorrow, I dont see MJD's carries going up by more than 5-6 per game. Greg Jones or some other player will jump in and play the "other RB" roll. MJDs benefit lies in the fact he can score from anywhere, and I have no problem with that, however, when he doesn't break a long one or score a TD, his points for you are pedestrian. Is he a RB that can be shut down or have a bad game in PPR, yes. Now compare him to Bush or Jamal going a round later and tell me he is worth this spot?While last year may have been his floor, what would you call his ceiling? I can't see any situation where he gets to 220 carries, even if Fred Taylor died or got injured tomorrow. My take on MJD: In the second round (especially this year where RB talent seems to be sliding into the third and 4th), he is not a good pick. Would you rather have MJD and Cotchery or Larry Fitzgerald and Jamal Lewis? I look at MJD and I see a newer version of Warrick Dunn. Dunn was a great back for many years, mainly b/c he could be had at a cheap price. With MJD you are paying premium for split carry type of player. It makes little sense to me.

 

[ceo3west]

I am expecting MJD to be a good 2nd round value this year, and even in non-PPR leagues and I would be shocked to see him available in the 3rd round. If you have an opportunity to grab him as a 2nd rounder I would strongly urge you to take him, because his floor is very high (high end RB2) and his ceiling is ridiculous.

I am not going to quote the whole post and I will just say that we will agree to disagree here. If Fred Taylor went down tomorrow, I dont see MJD's carries going up by more than 5-6 per game. Greg Jones or some other player will jump in and play the "other RB" roll. MJDs benefit lies in the fact he can score from anywhere, and I have no problem with that, however, when he doesn't break a long one or score a TD, his points for you are pedestrian. Is he a RB that can be shut down or have a bad game in PPR, yes. Now compare him to Bush or Jamal going a round later and tell me he is worth this spot?While last year may have been his floor, what would you call his ceiling? I can't see any situation where he gets to 220 carries, even if Fred Taylor died or got injured tomorrow. My take on MJD: In the second round (especially this year where RB talent seems to be sliding into the third and 4th), he is not a good pick. Would you rather have MJD and Cotchery or Larry Fitzgerald and Jamal Lewis? I look at MJD and I see a newer version of Warrick Dunn. Dunn was a great back for many years, mainly b/c he could be had at a cheap price. With MJD you are paying premium for split carry type of player. It makes little sense to me.

Not sure how a guy that finished as the 7th & 13th RB the last 2 years isn't a good 2nd round pick. Especially given the fact that he's done it with limited touches. Numbers don't lie. And I'll take MJD & Cotchery in a heartbeat this season (and for the record, you could have MJD and Calvin/Boldin). You really think Lewis will repeat the year he had? That is his absolute ceiling. If you're banking on that again you're in for a disappointing season IMO.

 

[sportsphysio]

I cannot say I agree here. MJD is a team killer. He is the lee evans of RBs. At the end of the year his totals look good, but game to game you have no idea what he will get you.

If you look at the "quality start" article by Pasquerino (sp): MJDs numbers were 4/5/6, (4 games over 16 points, 5 games between 10-16, and 6 games under 10). Portis was 8/7/1. Jamal Lewis (going a full round or 2 later) was 8/2/5, and even Reggie Bush (going around he same time or a little after in PPR) was 8/2/2. His numbers are based on the flow of that offense and while I like his "type" of back, I liked it better when he was named Dunn and was available in the 5th round.

Return yardage does make him a no brainer pick, but that also makes Devin hester and Tedd Ginn 5th rounders, so lets leave that out.

The guy who had MJD in our local last year scored the second highest points of anyone. However, he missed the playoffs bc the way his team scored points (feast or famine) screwed his W/L record.

In a total points league, I'll take the MJDs and the Lee Evans' all day. HTH, not so much. (that being said, I would take MJD in the mid third or so, and evans would be on my team in the 6th round or later. Sometimes you have to value players for what they are, not what you hope they will be)

IMHO,

Gator

I respect the effort Jeff Pasquerino put into his "quality start" article, but IMO it's a huge mistake to superimpose a 2007 analysis of consistency over one's 2008 projections. This is a very poor method for forecasting future consistency, and 15 games in MJD's sophomore season is too small a sample size to justify labeling MJD as a 'feast or famine' fantasy player. This limited analysis if applied to future projections assumes no change in productivity, workload, or usage patterns, and treats his 2007 season stats as if they occured within a vacuum. I don't believe there is much to be gained by forecasting MJD's consistency and future production in this manner. The most significant thing I would take away from Jeff's article (at least where MJD is concerned), is that it draws attention to his seemingly inconsistent fantasy production in 2007, and begs the question - why?Let's take into account that in 2007 the Jags brought in a new offensive coordinator, declared David Garrard the unquestioned #1 QB, released Leftwich altogether just before the regular season, and subsequently MJD got off to a very slow start. IMO the new OC needed time to figure out how to best utilize MJD and the Jags offense, contributing towards MJD's slow start. In Jeff's article the biggest hit to MJD's quality starts ratio are due to this slow start and the first 3 weeks were admittedly fantasy clunkers. However, if you look at his production from Jacksonville's 4th game on then his quality starts split becomes 4/5/3. That's quite a big difference from 4/5/6. Additionally, over the last 12 games played MJD averaged 13 fantasy pts. per game (non-PPR & not including return TDs). Surprisingly that means he was a low end RB1 for fantasy purposes over this 12 game stretch, despite having to share with Fred Taylor who was enjoying a career best YPC.

Even with Taylor's presence, MJD still had 207 touches in 15 games played, 40 receptions and 167 carries. That works out to 14 touches per game. He was also used in all stages of the game regardless of score, down or distance, including goal line and short distance work. In fact, MJD led the NFL in # of attempts on 3rd or 4th down and 3yds or less, and he converted 18 of 32 tries despite opposing defenses gunning for him. Yet he still put up very good rushing stats (4.6YPC) in what many considered a 'down' year. IMO that bodes very well for future production, particularly when you consider that only 4 of MJD's TDs were of the short yardage variety. Even if you insist on using his 2007 stats as your template for MJD's usage/consistency/fantasy production in 2008, then at the very least take from them that MJD is a complete NFL RB used in all situations, and that he has room for improving upon just 4 short yardage rushing touchdowns in a season. However, I think there are even better reasons for optimism regarding MJD's fantasy outlook going forward.

Consider also that in 2007 Fred Taylor enjoyed a career year of sorts (5.4 YPC), and that MJD only received 167 total carries. Taylor of course has been terrific for the last two seasons and has received 231 carries in '06 and 223 carries in '07 (when he had his career best 5.4 YPC). Unfortunately, career years at any age are usually followed by a 'regression to the mean' in the following season. Also, consider that Taylor will begin the 2008 season at 32 years of age and by season's end will be 33. Historically even the greatest NFL RBs don't achieve 5+ YPC at age 32. In fact over the last 40 years there are only 4 instances of a 32+ yr old RB carrying the football over 200 times while averaging 4+ YPC, and none of them averaged anything even close to 5 YPC. How realistic is it to expect Taylor to maintain a high YPC or even a 220-230+ carry workload going forward?

I sincerely doubt it, and I wonder if the Jacksonville coaching staff isn't thinking along the same lines... Head coach Jack Del Rio has already alluded to a larger role for MJD due to Taylor's advancing age. Earlier this year at a press conference prior to the NFL draft JDR said that the Jags are taking advantage of the fact that they have 'two very explosive backs', calling Jacksonville's backfield a 'luxury', and acknowledging that Taylor can't continue to maintain his skills indefinitely. Specifically he said, "we also know that Fred can't do it forever... at some point Fred will get less and Maurice will get more..." And despite acknowledging this prior to the draft, the Jaguars did nothing to bolster their backfield in what many considered to be a deep and talented draft at the RB position. Sounds to me like the Jaguars trust MJD to pick up slack as needed, and to take over in the event that Taylor faulters. Based on NFL history and the high regard that the Jags appear to have for MJD, I fully expect that 2008 will see MJD's # of carries equal or even exceed Taylor's.

I understand that many fantasy owners who were counting on him in the first three weeks of 2007 and were left with a very bad taste in their mouths, and I suspect that many of these same owners subsequently benched him only to be infuriated with MJD's inconsistent production as his points were then wasted on the bench. Perhaps that's where a lot of the MJD venom is coming from this year, and this "quality start" analysis then serves as only a painful reminder of his slow start last year. But if we use the "quality starter" ratio of 2007 to filter our future predictions, then we miss out on the critical revelations of 2007 that hint at even better production in 2008 and beyond. Namely that MJD proved his rookie season was no fluke, that he remains the undisputed short yardage/goal line back, the primary receiving back, and earned the trust of the Jagurs coaching staff to be on the field in any situation, down or distance.

I am expecting MJD to be a good 2nd round value this year, and even in non-PPR leagues and I would be shocked to see him available in the 3rd round. If you have an opportunity to grab him as a 2nd rounder I would strongly urge you to take him, because his floor is very high (high end RB2) and his ceiling is ridiculous.

geoff -- fantastic analysis. You definitely fully elaborated on my thoughts, hence the reason for my original posting. I will be very happy if I can start my draft off with Portis/MJD...

 

[geoff8695]

I am expecting MJD to be a good 2nd round value this year, and even in non-PPR leagues and I would be shocked to see him available in the 3rd round. If you have an opportunity to grab him as a 2nd rounder I would strongly urge you to take him, because his floor is very high (high end RB2) and his ceiling is ridiculous.

I am not going to quote the whole post and I will just say that we will agree to disagree here. If Fred Taylor went down tomorrow, I dont see MJD's carries going up by more than 5-6 per game. Greg Jones or some other player will jump in and play the "other RB" roll. MJDs benefit lies in the fact he can score from anywhere, and I have no problem with that, however, when he doesn't break a long one or score a TD, his points for you are pedestrian. Is he a RB that can be shut down or have a bad game in PPR, yes. Now compare him to Bush or Jamal going a round later and tell me he is worth this spot?While last year may have been his floor, what would you call his ceiling? I can't see any situation where he gets to 220 carries, even if Fred Taylor died or got injured tomorrow.

My take on MJD: In the second round (especially this year where RB talent seems to be sliding into the third and 4th), he is not a good pick. Would you rather have MJD and Cotchery or Larry Fitzgerald and Jamal Lewis?

I look at MJD and I see a newer version of Warrick Dunn. Dunn was a great back for many years, mainly b/c he could be had at a cheap price. With MJD you are paying premium for split carry type of player. It makes little sense to me.

Even if I were to accept the Warrick Dunn comparison and label MJD as a 'split carry type of player', why wouldn't MJD be in line to receive 220 carries? Dunn who is undersized when compared to MJD has averaged over 225 carries per season for his 11 year career, and I can't recall Dunn ever having to share a backfield with a RB of Fred Taylor's caliber (Taylor has rushed for over 10,000 yds).I think there are some serious problems in your reasoning. The first is a common one and that assumes that MJD is too 'small' and like a 5-9, 187 lbs. Warrick Dunn it is unlikely that such a tiny RB can handle a 300 carry workload without breaking down. However, MJD at 5-8, 208lbs. is actually a tree trunk limbed human bowling ball. MJD may be short of stature, fast, and have nifty moves, but that's where his similarities to Dunn end. Check out these highlights of MJD, and look at the way he blows up Shawn Merriman around the 2:30 mark of this video, or the hit he delivers at the 3:45 mark, or the power he consistently displays in his running style. This is something not present in the undersized Dunn's game. MJD may enjoy the benefits of a low center of gravity and quick moves, much like a Warrick Dunn, but he also offers a much more complete game.

Another problem is that you blindly assume MJD won't EVER significantly increase his workload from 160 some-odd carries (under any circumstances). I think this implies that sharing carries with Fred Taylor is somehow an indictment of MJD's abilities or durability. However, Taylor is a career Jaguar and an NFL life time achiever at the RB position, and at the very least he belongs in the NFL's Hall of Very Good. Where is your evidence to suggest that MJD can't handle a larger workload, or that Jacksonville's coaching staff only envision him as a "split carry type of player"? JDR called the current situation a 'luxury' of having 'two explosive backs', and after acknowledging that Freddie can't keep this up indefinitely, promptly ignored a very deep and talented class of RBs in the NFL draft.

Additionally, why minimize or discount the amazing work that he's already done? How about comparing him to RBs over the last 20 yrs. and see how his first 2 seasons stack up?

Here's a list of RBs who scored at least 300 fantasy points in their first two seasons:

NAME POS YRs G RSH RSHYD YD/RSH RSHTD REC RECYD YD/REC RECTD FANT PT 1 Edgerrin James rb 1999--2000 32 756 3262 4.31 26 125 1180 9.44 9 654.20 2 Clinton Portis rb 2002--2003 29 563 3099 5.50 29 71 678 9.55 2 563.70 3 Barry Sanders rb 1989--1990 31 535 2774 5.19 27 60 762 12.70 3 533.60 4 LaDainian Tomlinson rb 2001--2002 32 711 2919 4.11 24 138 856 6.20 1 527.50 5 Curtis Martin rb 1995--1996 32 684 2639 3.86 28 76 594 7.82 4 515.30 6 Marshall Faulk rb 1994--1995 32 603 2360 3.91 22 108 997 9.23 4 491.70 7 Terrell Davis rb 1995--1996 30 582 2655 4.56 20 85 677 7.96 3 471.20 8 Domanick Williams rb 2003--2004 29 540 2219 4.11 21 115 939 8.17 1 447.80 9 Emmitt Smith rb 1990--1991 32 606 2500 4.13 23 73 486 6.66 1 442.60 10 Joseph Addai rb 2006--2007 31 487 2153 4.42 19 81 689 8.51 4 422.20 11 Karim Abdul-Jabbar rb 1996--1997 32 590 2008 3.40 26 52 400 7.69 1 402.80 12 Ricky Watters rb 1992--1993 27 414 1963 4.74 19 74 731 9.88 3 401.40 13 Maurice Jones-Drew rb 2006--2007 31 333 1709 5.13 22 86 843 9.80 2 399.20 14 Eddie George rb 1996--1997 32 692 2767 4.00 14 30 226 7.53 1 389.30 15 Thurman Thomas rb 1988--1989 31 505 2125 4.21 8 78 877 11.24 6 384.20 16 Fred Taylor rb 1998--1999 25 423 1955 4.62 20 54 504 9.33 3 383.90 17 Willis McGahee rb 2004--2005 32 609 2375 3.90 18 50 347 6.94 0 380.20 18 Travis Henry rb 2001--2002 29 538 2167 4.03 17 65 488 7.51 1 373.50 19 Jerome Bettis rb 1993--1994 32 613 2454 4.00 10 57 537 9.42 1 365.10 20 Frank Gore rb 2005--2006 30 439 2303 5.25 11 76 616 8.11 1 363.90 21 Bobby Humphrey rb 1989--1990 31 582 2353 4.04 14 46 308 6.70 1 361.95 22 Corey Dillon rb 1997--1998 31 495 2259 4.56 14 55 437 7.95 1 359.60 23 Errict Rhett rb 1994--1995 32 616 2218 3.60 18 36 229 6.36 0 352.70 24 Mike Anderson rb 2000--2001 30 472 2165 4.59 19 31 215 6.94 0 352.00 25 Natrone Means rb 1993--1994 32 503 1995 3.97 20 49 294 6.00 0 348.90 26 Terry Allen rb 1991--1992 31 386 1764 4.57 15 55 527 9.58 3 337.10 27 Warrick Dunn rb 1997--1998 32 469 2004 4.27 6 83 806 9.71 3 335.00 28 Deuce McAllister rb 2001--2002 31 341 1479 4.34 14 62 518 8.35 4 313.30 29 Reggie Bush rb 2006--2007 28 312 1146 3.67 10 161 1159 7.20 4 312.50 30 Ricky Williams rb 1999--2000 22 501 1884 3.76 10 72 581 8.07 1 312.50 31 Antowain Smith rb 1997--1998 32 494 1964 3.98 16 33 188 5.70 0 311.20 32 Shaun Alexander rb 2000--2001 32 373 1631 4.37 16 49 384 7.84 2 309.50 33 Michael Bennett rb 2001--2002 29 427 1978 4.63 7 66 577 8.74 2 309.50 34 Steven Jackson rb 2004--2005 29 388 1719 4.43 12 62 509 8.21 2 306.80 35 Marion Butts rb 1989--1990 29 435 1908 4.39 17 23 138 6.00 0 306.60 36 Anthony Thomas rb 2001--2002 26 492 1904 3.87 13 46 341 7.41 0 302.50 37 Ronnie Brown rb 2005--2006 28 448 1915 4.27 9 65 508 7.82 1 302.30Look at where MJD ranks in this group, and consider how many fewer touches (333 rushes) he is doing it with. Pretty impressive isn't it?Now many people on these boards want to pimp Ronnie Brown's potential, who had 448 rushes (significantly more than MJD), but Brown doesn't show up until #37 on this list. By the way, Warrick Dunn does show up on this list too, but it's quite a bit further down than MJD at #27, and MJD's 22 TDs should begin to tell you how different these two really are. Dunn has a total of 47 career rushing TDs in 11 years. MJD is almost half way there after his first two seasons alone, and that's while having to share a backfield with a lifetime achiever in Fred Taylor, who is enjoying a late resurgence in his own career. Now if MJD were to get the additional 60 carries that you claim he will never get under any circumstance, then just imagine his future outlook. And that's only if we confine MJD to a Warrick Dunn sized workload averaging a mere 225 carries per season.

 

[Bayhawks]

I am not going to quote the whole post and I will just say that we will agree to disagree here. If Fred Taylor went down tomorrow, I dont see MJD's carries going up by more than 5-6 per game. Greg Jones or some other player will jump in and play the "other RB" roll. MJDs benefit lies in the fact he can score from anywhere, and I have no problem with that, however, when he doesn't break a long one or score a TD, his points for you are pedestrian. Is he a RB that can be shut down or have a bad game in PPR, yes. Now compare him to Bush or Jamal going a round later and tell me he is worth this spot?

While last year may have been his floor, what would you call his ceiling?

My take on MJD: In the second round (especially this year where RB talent seems to be sliding into the third and 4th), he is not a good pick. Would you rather have MJD and Cotchery or Larry Fitzgerald and Jamal Lewis?

I look at MJD and I see a newer version of Warrick Dunn. Dunn was a great back for many years, mainly b/c he could be had at a cheap price. With MJD you are paying premium for split carry type of player. It makes little sense to me.

You're absolutely right when you say that MJD wouldn't get all of Taylor's carries if he were to get hurt. But you are contradicting yourself when you say "I can't see any situation where he gets to 220 carries, even if Fred Taylor died or got injured tomorrow." Based on your guess of 5-6 more carries for MJD if Taylor went down, MJD would get between 260-276 carries. Those two statements don't make sense when made by the same person.Anyway, if FT were to go down, MJD wouldn't get all of his carries. Greg Jones would likely take some of them. Let's break that down, though. MJD is currently projected w/180 carries, and Fred Taylor has 200. That works out to a little over 11 carries/game for MJD and 12.5 for Taylor. Assuming Taylor were to get hurt, Lets give MJD an extra 4 carries/game (you said you didn't think he'd get more than 5-6 more per game), and Greg Jones takes the other 8.5.

That leaves us with MJD getting 240 carries. Let's assume a 4.7 YPC (his career average is 5.1) That's 1128 rushing yards.

He's currently projected for 42 catches, 395 yards (we'll leave those numbers alone). He's also projected with 12 total TDs. Taylor had 5 projected TDs. Let's assume MJD takes 2, and Greg Jones gets the other 3. That leaves us with a stat line of:

240 carries, 1128 yards, 42 catches, 395 yards and 14 TDs.

Using FBG scoring, that would give him 246 fantasy points, as RB4 (ONE POINT behind Westbrook at #3) You wouldn't take that along with Jerrico Cotchery?

 

[bcr8f]

5th round is too early for me.

 

[Gr00vus]

5th round is too early for me.

Sure you don't want to wait till the 6th? He'd be even BETTER value there.