MJD is now underrated (1 Viewer)

[Louisville Slugger]

MJD was dropping like a rock in many leagues.

I'm starting to ask why? The man had 15 td's in limited action last season. Clearly Fred Taylor is not the future (in my opinion he is not present)

By the end of the year in 06 Jones was getting near 20 touches per game and was the goal line back (which he will be this season)

I like MJD for at least 1,100 500 10-12 td's.

A very solid #2 rb with a nice upside.

 

[Jayrod]

I drafted him at 1.09 in a dynasty startup that is heavy on receiving and gives 1pt/10 return yards.

 

[thecardiackid]

He was so overvalued he is now undervalued???

Host: Do you have a response to that?

Caveman: Yea, I have a response... umm, whaaaaaaaaaaa?

I don't think the pool has the energy for more MJD debates.

 

[SSOG]

He was so overvalued he is now undervalued???

Host: Do you have a response to that?

Caveman: Yea, I have a response... umm, whaaaaaaaaaaa?

I don't think the pool has the energy for more MJD debates.

It's the Mike Vick syndrome. Mike Vick was ridiculously overvalued in 2003 and 2004- I saw someone take him with a top-3 selection in a league that gave bonuses to rushing TDs for QBs in 2003. After that, there was such a backlash of people who refused to even consider Mike Vick among the top 12 fantasy QBs that he could often be had as a QB2. He then finished as QB10 and QB4. In other words, Vick was so overrated in '03 and '04 that, after the backlash hit, he was actually underrated.

 

[bb7278]

Hmm me thinks the OP's conclusions came from here, otherwise its one heck of a coincidence...............

http://www.fantasysharks.com/artman2/publi...Appreciated.htm

 

[nygiants56]

He was so overvalued he is now undervalued???

Host: Do you have a response to that?

Caveman: Yea, I have a response... umm, whaaaaaaaaaaa?

I don't think the pool has the energy for more MJD debates.

It's the Mike Vick syndrome. Mike Vick was ridiculously overvalued in 2003 and 2004- I saw someone take him with a top-3 selection in a league that gave bonuses to rushing TDs for QBs in 2003. After that, there was such a backlash of people who refused to even consider Mike Vick among the top 12 fantasy QBs that he could often be had as a QB2. He then finished as QB10 and QB4. In other words, Vick was so overrated in '03 and '04 that, after the backlash hit, he was actually underrated.

I dunno , I had him last season using this same prinicple, and Vick stunk up the joint.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Here is what scares me about MJD. I think Fred Taylor is one of the most underrated RB to ever play the game. Do you realize that with the exception of one season (and one in which he logged only 2 games), Taylor has never had a YPC under 4.6? In addition, he's versatile enough to be a solid receiver out of the backfield. Plus, his YPC last season was over 5 that earned him a 3 year contract extension.

If you look at MJD's season last year:

43% of his carries came in the last 4 games.

47% of his rushing yards came in the last 4 games.

6 of his 13 TD's came in the last 4 games.

In these last 4 games, Taylor had 18 carries total. I'm not saying MJD gets relegated to second string...but:

1. Will Jacksonville look to feature him more after paying more money to Taylor this off-season?

2. Can he replicate his 5.7 YPC from 2006?

3. Will he avoid the sophomore jinx? Don't underestimate this.

I'd rather have someone else take the risk on him.

 

[tommyk7]

If your league is PPR I think MJD is a good pick, even in the second round. I believe he will carry more of the rushing load and with his return yards he gets plenty of points along with the 60 receptions he will get this year. His TDs should dip but he will be a solid performer.

If your league is not PPR then his value would be in the 4th round.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Those are good points The Dirty Word, but as impressive those numbers are for Fred Taylor........they didn't stop Drew Jones from doing his thing, meaning he was good enough to catch the coaches eye and bust onto the scene.

If the coaches gave him the ball in those situations last year without really knowing what they had in him, they're certainly going to do that this year.

To say he's going to get 15 plus TD's is a tough act for any RB in the league outside of the top 3 or 4.

You know what surprised me as I was going over some stats.......many of us think of this guy as a goaline bruiser, someone you can only bring in to get those tough yards.

This guy in his rookie season and with a healthy Fred Taylor for the most part had 46 receptions. That REALLY surprised me. This guy isn't a one dimensional back.

He also gained 320 yards thru his first 8 games then 600 plus his last 8 games. Since he was a rookie last season, I expect his last 8 games to be more of an indication of what he'll do this season.

And not that anyone would want Fred Taylor to be injured.....but anytime this guy would get the rock 25 plus times in a game, you'd have to put him as a top 5 weekly starter.

I've grown to like Drew Jones more and more as the drafts started and he's found his way onto a couple of my teams. I think I got him at like 2.01 and 2.06 in a couple of 12 team leagues. I'm happy with that....I think he's a producer.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Those are good points The Dirty Word, but as impressive those numbers are for Fred Taylor........they didn't stop Drew Jones from doing his thing, meaning he was good enough to catch the coaches eye and bust onto the scene.If the coaches gave him the ball in those situations last year without really knowing what they had in him, they're certainly going to do that this year.To say he's going to get 15 plus TD's is a tough act for any RB in the league outside of the top 3 or 4.You know what surprised me as I was going over some stats.......many of us think of this guy as a goaline bruiser, someone you can only bring in to get those tough yards.This guy in his rookie season and with a healthy Fred Taylor for the most part had 46 receptions. That REALLY surprised me. This guy isn't a one dimensional back.He also gained 320 yards thru his first 8 games then 600 plus his last 8 games. Since he was a rookie last season, I expect his last 8 games to be more of an indication of what he'll do this season.And not that anyone would want Fred Taylor to be injured.....but anytime this guy would get the rock 25 plus times in a game, you'd have to put him as a top 5 weekly starter.I've grown to like Drew Jones more and more as the drafts started and he's found his way onto a couple of my teams. I think I got him at like 2.01 and 2.06 in a couple of 12 team leagues. I'm happy with that....I think he's a producer.

MJD put up big numbers on 212 touches (offense/defense) - 1377 total yards; 6.5 YPT. I just don't know if he's going to get more touches than that and for an RB, that's a difficult task to replicate a 6.5 YPT. As you mentioned, unless you are a consistent double digit TD guy, it's tough to feel confident that he'll do it again.Bottomline: I think MJD's ceiling is limited and his disappointment potential is high.

 

[Tau837]

Here is what scares me about MJD. I think Fred Taylor is one of the most underrated RB to ever play the game. Do you realize that with the exception of one season (and one in which he logged only 2 games), Taylor has never had a YPC under 4.6? In addition, he's versatile enough to be a solid receiver out of the backfield. Plus, his YPC last season was over 5 that earned him a 3 year contract extension.If you look at MJD's season last year:43% of his carries came in the last 4 games.47% of his rushing yards came in the last 4 games.6 of his 13 TD's came in the last 4 games.In these last 4 games, Taylor had 18 carries total. I'm not saying MJD gets relegated to second string...but:1. Will Jacksonville look to feature him more after paying more money to Taylor this off-season?2. Can he replicate his 5.7 YPC from 2006?3. Will he avoid the sophomore jinx? Don't underestimate this.I'd rather have someone else take the risk on him.

Exactly. Taylor was hurt in the last 4 games. Of the 18 carries, he had 9 of them in the first half of their 13th game, then only had 9 carries in the last 3 1/2 games. This is what I have been saying all offseason.The only way he is now undervalued is if you can now get him outside of the top 20 RBs drafted. I haven't seen that happening. If he is being taken in the top 20, he isn't undervalued.

 

[Tau837]

Those are good points The Dirty Word, but as impressive those numbers are for Fred Taylor........they didn't stop Drew Jones from doing his thing, meaning he was good enough to catch the coaches eye and bust onto the scene.

If the coaches gave him the ball in those situations last year without really knowing what they had in him, they're certainly going to do that this year.

To say he's going to get 15 plus TD's is a tough act for any RB in the league outside of the top 3 or 4.

You know what surprised me as I was going over some stats.......many of us think of this guy as a goaline bruiser, someone you can only bring in to get those tough yards.

This guy in his rookie season and with a healthy Fred Taylor for the most part had 46 receptions. That REALLY surprised me. This guy isn't a one dimensional back.

He also gained 320 yards thru his first 8 games then 600 plus his last 8 games. Since he was a rookie last season, I expect his last 8 games to be more of an indication of what he'll do this season.

And not that anyone would want Fred Taylor to be injured.....but anytime this guy would get the rock 25 plus times in a game, you'd have to put him as a top 5 weekly starter.

I've grown to like Drew Jones more and more as the drafts started and he's found his way onto a couple of my teams. I think I got him at like 2.01 and 2.06 in a couple of 12 team leagues. I'm happy with that....I think he's a producer.

MJD's second half surge was due to Taylor's injury. Are you counting on Taylor to get hurt again?

 

[Thumper]

Here is what scares me about MJD. I think Fred Taylor is one of the most underrated RB to ever play the game. Do you realize that with the exception of one season (and one in which he logged only 2 games), Taylor has never had a YPC under 4.6? In addition, he's versatile enough to be a solid receiver out of the backfield. Plus, his YPC last season was over 5 that earned him a 3 year contract extension.If you look at MJD's season last year:43% of his carries came in the last 4 games.47% of his rushing yards came in the last 4 games.6 of his 13 TD's came in the last 4 games.In these last 4 games, Taylor had 18 carries total. I'm not saying MJD gets relegated to second string...but:1. Will Jacksonville look to feature him more after paying more money to Taylor this off-season?2. Can he replicate his 5.7 YPC from 2006?3. Will he avoid the sophomore jinx? Don't underestimate this.I'd rather have someone else take the risk on him.

Exactly. Taylor was hurt in the last 4 games. Of the 18 carries, he had 9 of them in the first half of their 13th game, then only had 9 carries in the last 3 1/2 games. This is what I have been saying all offseason.The only way he is now undervalued is if you can now get him outside of the top 20 RBs drafted. I haven't seen that happening. If he is being taken in the top 20, he isn't undervalued.

MJD was a far more dynamic force that an aging Fred Taylor was. Why would you expect his touches to go anywhere but up?

 

[Tau837]

Here is what scares me about MJD. I think Fred Taylor is one of the most underrated RB to ever play the game. Do you realize that with the exception of one season (and one in which he logged only 2 games), Taylor has never had a YPC under 4.6? In addition, he's versatile enough to be a solid receiver out of the backfield. Plus, his YPC last season was over 5 that earned him a 3 year contract extension.If you look at MJD's season last year:43% of his carries came in the last 4 games.47% of his rushing yards came in the last 4 games.6 of his 13 TD's came in the last 4 games.In these last 4 games, Taylor had 18 carries total. I'm not saying MJD gets relegated to second string...but:1. Will Jacksonville look to feature him more after paying more money to Taylor this off-season?2. Can he replicate his 5.7 YPC from 2006?3. Will he avoid the sophomore jinx? Don't underestimate this.I'd rather have someone else take the risk on him.

Exactly. Taylor was hurt in the last 4 games. Of the 18 carries, he had 9 of them in the first half of their 13th game, then only had 9 carries in the last 3 1/2 games. This is what I have been saying all offseason.The only way he is now undervalued is if you can now get him outside of the top 20 RBs drafted. I haven't seen that happening. If he is being taken in the top 20, he isn't undervalued.

MJD was a far more dynamic force that an aging Fred Taylor was. Why would you expect his touches to go anywhere but up?

Previous posts on this:

As for MJD, aside from likely regression in his amazing per touch productivity, MJD really exploded last season when Taylor was hurt. Previous post on this:

I wanted to look back at what happened last year to remind myself. Here is what I found.After Jacksonville's first 12 games, here is where Taylor and MJD stood:MJD: 95/500/7 rushing and 32/317/2 receiving = 11.3 fantasy points per gameTaylor: 213/952/4 rushing and 22/216/0 receiving = 11.7 fantasy points per gameTaylor had almost twice as many touches, and was having an excellent season, albeit without many TDs. I really don't think many people appreciate just how good of a season he had last year.Then in game 13, Taylor rushed for 9/131/1 in the first half but had to leave the game with an injury. He came back for game 14, but had to leave the game in the 1st quarter after only 2 carries. He didn't play in game 15. He played in game 16, but had only 7 carries.MJD took full advantage of this stretch, with 71/441/6 rushing and 14/119/0 receiving during the last 4 games.Then in the offseason, JAX signed Taylor to a 3 year contract extension.So... assuming Taylor is healthy, why would his role change significantly? Why sign him to the extension if they planned to give a significant portion of his touches to MJD?JAX was 6th in the NFL in RB carries last season. So it's not like they have a lot of room to grow there. For those, like Groovus, who project MJD with 200 carries, at whose expense?Here are the JAX RBs last season:

+----------------------+----+-----------------------+----------------------+| Name | G | RSH YARD AVG TD | REC YARD AVG TD |+----------------------+----+-----------------------+----------------------+| Rich Alexis | 1 | 3 5 1.7 0 | 0 0 0.0 0 || Maurice Jones-Drew | 16 | 166 941 5.7 13 | 46 436 9.5 2 || Montell Owens | 14 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 0 0 0.0 0 || Alvin Pearman | 13 | 19 89 4.7 1 | 2 12 6.0 0 || Fred Taylor | 15 | 231 1146 5.0 5 | 23 242 10.5 1 || LaBrandon Toefield | 4 | 10 22 2.2 0 | 0 0 0.0 0 || Derrick Wimbush | 11 | 1 3 3.0 0 | 4 23 5.8 0 |+----------------------+----+-----------------------+----------------------+If MJD adds 34 carries (to get to 200), does Taylor lose 34? Note that before his injury last season, Taylor averaged nearly 18 carries per game, which scales to 284 over 16 games. Is he going to lose 5 or 6 carries per game? I don't think so.How about Jones? Two years ago he had 151 carries. I'm not expecting that, but I would be surprised if he and all other RBs besides Taylor and MJD total only 33 carries on the season, as they did last year.For those projecting MJD with a significant uptick in touches, where are they coming from? Are you assuming injuries to Taylor and/or Jones?

So before Taylor got hurt last year, MJD averaged 11.3 fppg. After Taylor got hurt, he averaged 23 ppg. So unless you project Taylor to get hurt again, there is an obvious reason for MJD to regress. It definitely looks like there is reason not to put too much emphasis on MJD's second half IMO. I mean, you can put general value on the fact that he showed he can carry the load, but you can't apply the numbers to project this year IMO.

Does anyone dispute that if he has kick/punt return duties the coaches will give him fewer offensive touches than if he was not returning kicks/punts? My view is that they like what they have in Taylor, and possibly Jones, enough that they think the best overall value to the team is to use some of MJD's touches on kicks/punts and give those offensive touches to Taylor/Jones. There is no way MJD sees more than 250 touches on offense if he is returning kicks/punts.

Positives:1. He performed great last year, so we know he can do it.2. He could improve in some ways in his second year.Negatives:1. His per touch numbers were outrageously good. I think regression from them is a given.2. He averaged 11.3 fppg before Taylor got hurt last year and 23 fppg while Taylor was hurt. But Taylor is healthy and, as far as we know, will stay healthy. And Taylor remains the starter.3. Greg Jones is back. Is he a threat to get 150 touches? No, I don't think so... but I do think he is a threat to get more than the 32 carries and 6 catches JAX RBs other than Taylor & MJD got last year.4. As far as I know, he is expected to return kicks and possibly punts. IMO, given other good RBs, this will cause the coaching staff to hold down his touches somewhat on offense.5. Due to points 2-4 above, it is hard to see MJD's touches going up significantly. He had 212 last season, and IMO will see no more than 250 this year. To put this number in perspective, consider that the top 10 RBs last season other than MJD averaged 378 touches.

Oh yeah, forgot to mention that the starting center for JAX will miss at least 3 games and then will have to work back into the lineup. That doesn't help MJD.

After all this talk of the effectiveness of Taylor vs. MJD, I thought it might be interesting to look at how the JAX running game performed as a whole before and after Taylor's injury.Weeks 1-14 (13 games): 356/1836/14 (5.16 ypc) rushing; 75 targets, 59/572/2 (9.69 ypr) receiving; 336.80 fantasy points (25.9 fppg)Weeks 15-17 (3 games): 73/364/4 (4.99 ypc) rushing; 22 targets, 16/141/1 (8.81 ypr) receiving; 80.50 fantasy points (26.8 fppg)I counted week 14, the game in which Taylor played one half, in the first (RBBC) group, since he did play half the game and had a great game (as did MJD).So, we see that, while MJD performed well in his short stint as a feature back, the JAX RBs as a whole were marginally less effective, gaining fewer yards per carry and per reception. Their fantasy points are higher because they scored TDs at a greater rate, but I'd argue that they were actually less effective. 3 games is a small sample size, though.Also important is that at after week 14, JAX was 8-5 and in position to make the playoffs. They then proceeded to lose at Tennessee, at home to New England, and at KC to finish 8-8 and miss the playoffs. I think that was a pretty disappointing finish...IMO this is why the coaches will be inclined to stick with what was working so effectively last season before Taylor was hurt. The running game as a whole was better, even if marginally so, when Taylor was getting most of the carries, and the team had a better record.

 

[hellz_fireflies]

Main reason he's underrated ..its still a RBBC there and Taylor just signed a new contract for 3 years for nice millions..if they thought Taylor was nothing why redo his contract?

 

[Howie]

Hmm me thinks the OP's conclusions came from here, otherwise its one heck of a coincidence...............

http://www.fantasysharks.com/artman2/publi...Appreciated.htm

OP must be "Ben Ice". Nice catch on the apparent plagiarism.

 

[AgentMulder]

For all these people that are down on MJD what are you projecting him to do? I realize it must be tough after only seeing him for one season but like many have mentioned Jax was #2 in rushing last year and MJD has shown potential in the running and passing game. Is a reasonable projection for him

180 carries 750 yds rushing 60 recepts 600 yds receiving 9-10 total TDs??

If you agree with this projection then isn't he a safe #2 or #3 RB in PPR and should be drafted as such? If you don't agree with it please post what you think he will do this year and why. I'm not trying to call anyone out at all I am new here but I'm just wondering what people who don't think he will do well project him at.

 

[menobrown]

I dunno , I had him last season using this same prinicple, and Vick stunk up the joint.

How? Were you in a league that does not award points for QB rushing totals because Vick was top 5 in standard scoring leagues.

 

[vichawkfan]

Main reason he's underrated ..its still a RBBC there and Taylor just signed a new contract for 3 years for nice millions..if they thought Taylor was nothing why redo his contract?

they re-did his contract out of respect. DelRio loves the guy, and he was under-paid. He won't play for 5 more seasons, so the cotract is really a 6 million raise over 2 yrs deal.Taylor is a great RB, but he lacks in 2 areas - goal line/short yardage and reception ability. I know, I owned Fred for 2003-2005. I winced every time he got inside the 5, because he would tap dance and get stuffed.

 

[SSOG]

He was so overvalued he is now undervalued???

Host: Do you have a response to that?

Caveman: Yea, I have a response... umm, whaaaaaaaaaaa?

I don't think the pool has the energy for more MJD debates.

It's the Mike Vick syndrome. Mike Vick was ridiculously overvalued in 2003 and 2004- I saw someone take him with a top-3 selection in a league that gave bonuses to rushing TDs for QBs in 2003. After that, there was such a backlash of people who refused to even consider Mike Vick among the top 12 fantasy QBs that he could often be had as a QB2. He then finished as QB10 and QB4. In other words, Vick was so overrated in '03 and '04 that, after the backlash hit, he was actually underrated.

I dunno , I had him last season using this same prinicple, and Vick stunk up the joint.

Vick finished as the #4 fantasy QB last year according to standard FBG's scoring. Either you have a bizarre scoring system and therefore ADP doesn't apply to your league, or else you have a bizarre idea of what, exactly, constitutes "stinking up the joint". In leagues that reward 1/10 rushing and 1/20 passing, Vick had the equivalent of 4400 passing yards last year. In leagues that reward 1/10 rushing and 1/25 passing, Vick had the equivalent of 4900 passing yards last year.

 

[Ilov80s]

He was so overvalued he is now undervalued???

Host: Do you have a response to that?

Caveman: Yea, I have a response... umm, whaaaaaaaaaaa?

I don't think the pool has the energy for more MJD debates.

It's the Mike Vick syndrome. Mike Vick was ridiculously overvalued in 2003 and 2004- I saw someone take him with a top-3 selection in a league that gave bonuses to rushing TDs for QBs in 2003. After that, there was such a backlash of people who refused to even consider Mike Vick among the top 12 fantasy QBs that he could often be had as a QB2. He then finished as QB10 and QB4. In other words, Vick was so overrated in '03 and '04 that, after the backlash hit, he was actually underrated.

I dunno , I had him last season using this same prinicple, and Vick stunk up the joint.

Vick finished as the #4 fantasy QB last year according to standard FBG's scoring. Either you have a bizarre scoring system and therefore ADP doesn't apply to your league, or else you have a bizarre idea of what, exactly, constitutes "stinking up the joint". In leagues that reward 1/10 rushing and 1/20 passing, Vick had the equivalent of 4400 passing yards last year. In leagues that reward 1/10 rushing and 1/25 passing, Vick had the equivalent of 4900 passing yards last year.

Considering I took Vick in the 10th round last year, he was a great pick. He finished 3rd in total points and 4th in ppg.

 

[Tyrion]

Hmm me thinks the OP's conclusions came from here, otherwise its one heck of a coincidence...............

http://www.fantasysharks.com/artman2/publi...Appreciated.htm

OP must be "Ben Ice". Nice catch on the apparent plagiarism.

Yeah what are the odds of someone thinking MJD is undervauled without having read a fantasy article first? The only thing similar about the articles are the title and the idea and the title is not an exact copy. Both writers use different reasoning to come to the same conclusion. Ben Ice doesn't talk about MJD's stats as a pro.



On a positive note, thanks for posting the link. I enjoyed Ben Ice's article as well.

 

[Ilov80s]

The Jones-Drew thing has been beat to death this offseason. Nobody has any news or any insight that hasn't been brought forth and analyzed to death already. Its time to just let the players play.

 

[[icon]]

Here is what scares me about MJD. I think Fred Taylor is one of the most underrated RB to ever play the game. Do you realize that with the exception of one season (and one in which he logged only 2 games), Taylor has never had a YPC under 4.6? In addition, he's versatile enough to be a solid receiver out of the backfield. Plus, his YPC last season was over 5 that earned him a 3 year contract extension.

If you look at MJD's season last year:

43% of his carries came in the last 4 games.

47% of his rushing yards came in the last 4 games.

6 of his 13 TD's came in the last 4 games.

In these last 4 games, Taylor had 18 carries total. I'm not saying MJD gets relegated to second string...but:

1. Will Jacksonville look to feature him more after paying more money to Taylor this off-season?

2. Can he replicate his 5.7 YPC from 2006?

3. Will he avoid the sophomore jinx? Don't underestimate this.

I'd rather have someone else take the risk on him.

 

[switz]

I just wantthese threads to stay around llong enough to refute those who come next year and claim "I told you he was overrated last year."

 

[SSOG]

3. Will he avoid the sophomore jinx? Don't underestimate this.

Ah yes, how could I forget the "sophomore jinx"?http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...879&hl=jinx

People keep mentioning this "sophomore jinx", or this "sophomore slump". Can anyone provide any decent examples of this in action? Other than Michael Clayton, of course. I mean, it's pretty well established that QBs make a bigger jump between year 1 and year 2 than at any other point in their careers. TEs and WRs almost never amount to anything as rookies, so I don't really see how they could "slump" in year 2. This leaves RBs as potential victims of this "sophomore slump".

From 1996 to 2005, there were 23 RBs with 200+ carries in their "freshman year". Here's the list, sorted by fantasy rank, followed by their fantasy finish in their first and second seasons. I've left off guys like Mike Anderson and Dominic Rhodes who were backups in their second year.

Name- Year N rank, Year N+1 rank

Edgerrin James- 1st, 2nd

Clinton Portis- 4th, 5th

Fred Taylor- 4th, 28th (injured, 10 games)

LaDanian Tomlinson- 7th, 3rd

Willis McGahee- 9th, 13th

Eddie George- 8th, 12th

Jamal Lewis- 16th, n/a (injured, 0 games played, but he ranked 12th in his third year)

Corey Dillon- 8th, 17th

Karim Abdul-Jabbar- 9th, 6th

Domanick Williams (nee Davis)- 14th, 5th

Warrick Dunn- 13th, 19th

Anthony Thomas- 13th, 33rd (injured, 12 games)

Kevin Jones- 21st, 31st (injured, 13 games)

Caddilac Williams- 19th, 39th

Ronnie Brown- 23rd, 25th (injured, 13 games)

William Green- 27th, 47th (injured, 7 games)

Ricky Williams- 27th, 18th (injured, 10 games)

Travis Henry- 28th, 8th

Ron Dayne- 29th, 27th

Throwing out all of the players who missed significant time (3 games or more) due to injury, the players ranked 10.9 on average in year N, and 11.7 in year N+1. Explain to me how, exactly, this is evidence of a slump and not simple regression to the mean?

how can you throw out injuries when talking about a jinx/ I think all the names with injured on that list gives me reason to think at least a little.

First off, the theory is that sophomore players are likely to see a decline in scoring, not that they're likely to get injured. Second off, even if we keep in the injuries- those sophomore RBs played an average of 12.85 games in year N+1. If I recall correctly, the average NFL RB only plays 13 games per season. That's not enough of a difference for me to conclude that sophomore RBs are any more likely to miss time than any other RB.Basically, sophomore RBs see their scoring regress... by the same amount as every other RB. Sophomore RBs are likely to get injured... at the same rate as every other RB. The "sophomore slump" is a myth.

In other words... what sophomore jinx?Maybe we should downgrade Fred Taylor because of the 10th-year Jinx, and Tomlinson because of the 7th-year jinx. I'm sure I could find examples of 10th year and 7th year players regressing. I could also find examples of 3rd year, 4th year, 5th year, 6th year, 8th year, and 9th year players regressing, and apparently the only bit of data needed to prove a jinx is an example of individuals suffering from it (regardless of how the population as a whole has fared in the year in question). Heck, why not just downgrade all runningbacks equally, because they're clearly all jinxed?

 

[TheDirtyWord]

3. Will he avoid the sophomore jinx? Don't underestimate this.

Ah yes, how could I forget the "sophomore jinx"?http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...879&hl=jinx

People keep mentioning this "sophomore jinx", or this "sophomore slump". Can anyone provide any decent examples of this in action? Other than Michael Clayton, of course. I mean, it's pretty well established that QBs make a bigger jump between year 1 and year 2 than at any other point in their careers. TEs and WRs almost never amount to anything as rookies, so I don't really see how they could "slump" in year 2. This leaves RBs as potential victims of this "sophomore slump".

From 1996 to 2005, there were 23 RBs with 200+ carries in their "freshman year". Here's the list, sorted by fantasy rank, followed by their fantasy finish in their first and second seasons. I've left off guys like Mike Anderson and Dominic Rhodes who were backups in their second year.

Name- Year N rank, Year N+1 rank

Edgerrin James- 1st, 2nd

Clinton Portis- 4th, 5th

Fred Taylor- 4th, 28th (injured, 10 games)

LaDanian Tomlinson- 7th, 3rd

Willis McGahee- 9th, 13th

Eddie George- 8th, 12th

Jamal Lewis- 16th, n/a (injured, 0 games played, but he ranked 12th in his third year)

Corey Dillon- 8th, 17th

Karim Abdul-Jabbar- 9th, 6th

Domanick Williams (nee Davis)- 14th, 5th

Warrick Dunn- 13th, 19th

Anthony Thomas- 13th, 33rd (injured, 12 games)

Kevin Jones- 21st, 31st (injured, 13 games)

Caddilac Williams- 19th, 39th

Ronnie Brown- 23rd, 25th (injured, 13 games)

William Green- 27th, 47th (injured, 7 games)

Ricky Williams- 27th, 18th (injured, 10 games)

Travis Henry- 28th, 8th

Ron Dayne- 29th, 27th

Throwing out all of the players who missed significant time (3 games or more) due to injury, the players ranked 10.9 on average in year N, and 11.7 in year N+1. Explain to me how, exactly, this is evidence of a slump and not simple regression to the mean?

how can you throw out injuries when talking about a jinx/ I think all the names with injured on that list gives me reason to think at least a little.

First off, the theory is that sophomore players are likely to see a decline in scoring, not that they're likely to get injured. Second off, even if we keep in the injuries- those sophomore RBs played an average of 12.85 games in year N+1. If I recall correctly, the average NFL RB only plays 13 games per season. That's not enough of a difference for me to conclude that sophomore RBs are any more likely to miss time than any other RB.Basically, sophomore RBs see their scoring regress... by the same amount as every other RB. Sophomore RBs are likely to get injured... at the same rate as every other RB. The "sophomore slump" is a myth.

In other words... what sophomore jinx?Maybe we should downgrade Fred Taylor because of the 10th-year Jinx, and Tomlinson because of the 7th-year jinx. I'm sure I could find examples of 10th year and 7th year players regressing. I could also find examples of 3rd year, 4th year, 5th year, 6th year, 8th year, and 9th year players regressing, and apparently the only bit of data needed to prove a jinx is an example of individuals suffering from it (regardless of how the population as a whole has fared in the year in question). Heck, why not just downgrade all runningbacks equally, because they're clearly all jinxed?

In the example you provided, 13 of the 19 players listed performed at a worse level than they did in their rookie year. That sophomore jinx.

 

[SSOG]

In the example you provided, 13 of the 19 players listed performed at a worse level than they did in their rookie year. That sophomore jinx.

Like I said, it's simple regression to the mean. The rookie RBs in question had an average rank of 10.9 in year N. RBs who rank 11th in year N tend to regress and rank below that in year N+1. For instance, in 2005, the RBs who ranked 6-16 (average rank = 11th), along with their rank in Year N and Year N+1 in parentheses, were Portis (6, 36), Rudi Johnson (7, 9), LaMont Jordan (8, 55), Thomas Jones (9, 21), Mike Anderson (10, 72), Steven Jackson (11, 3), Warrick Dunn (12, 24), Willis McGahee (13, 26), Reuben Droughns (14, 34), Willie Parker (15, 5), and Corey Dillon (16, 19). That's an average rank, by the way, of 27.6th, which is DRASTICALLY worse than the year N+1 rank of sophomore RBs (which is 18.4 if you don't throw out the injured players). 9 of the 11 backs in this sample ranked worse in year N than in year N+1. As you can see, sophomore RBs actually held their value SIGNIFICANTLY better than the RBs in the 6-16 range. Why don't we start talking about the "RB6-RB16 jinx"? Or the "Top 5 RB jinx"? Or the "Record Breaking RB jinx"? Here's why- because it's simple regression to the mean. If anything, this dataset doesn't reinforce the "sophomore jinx", it proves that quite the opposite is true- sophomore RBs are more likely to meet expectations than other comparable RBs who are not sophomores.So once again I'll ask you: what sophomore jinx?

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

In the example you provided, 13 of the 19 players listed performed at a worse level than they did in their rookie year. That sophomore jinx.

Throwing out the six who missed significant time due to injury 6 players scored higher, and 7 dropped. If you've got a method for predicting injuries, I'm all ears. Otherwise you'd find pretty similar results for all RBs, regardless of what year they had a good season.

 

[ComfortablyNumb]

3. Will he avoid the sophomore jinx? Don't underestimate this.

Ah yes, how could I forget the "sophomore jinx"?http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...879&hl=jinx

People keep mentioning this "sophomore jinx", or this "sophomore slump". Can anyone provide any decent examples of this in action? Other than Michael Clayton, of course. I mean, it's pretty well established that QBs make a bigger jump between year 1 and year 2 than at any other point in their careers. TEs and WRs almost never amount to anything as rookies, so I don't really see how they could "slump" in year 2. This leaves RBs as potential victims of this "sophomore slump".

From 1996 to 2005, there were 23 RBs with 200+ carries in their "freshman year". Here's the list, sorted by fantasy rank, followed by their fantasy finish in their first and second seasons. I've left off guys like Mike Anderson and Dominic Rhodes who were backups in their second year.

Name- Year N rank, Year N+1 rank

Edgerrin James- 1st, 2nd

Clinton Portis- 4th, 5th

Fred Taylor- 4th, 28th (injured, 10 games)

LaDanian Tomlinson- 7th, 3rd

Willis McGahee- 9th, 13th

Eddie George- 8th, 12th

Jamal Lewis- 16th, n/a (injured, 0 games played, but he ranked 12th in his third year)

Corey Dillon- 8th, 17th

Karim Abdul-Jabbar- 9th, 6th

Domanick Williams (nee Davis)- 14th, 5th

Warrick Dunn- 13th, 19th

Anthony Thomas- 13th, 33rd (injured, 12 games)

Kevin Jones- 21st, 31st (injured, 13 games)

Caddilac Williams- 19th, 39th

Ronnie Brown- 23rd, 25th (injured, 13 games)

William Green- 27th, 47th (injured, 7 games)

Ricky Williams- 27th, 18th (injured, 10 games)

Travis Henry- 28th, 8th

Ron Dayne- 29th, 27th

Throwing out all of the players who missed significant time (3 games or more) due to injury, the players ranked 10.9 on average in year N, and 11.7 in year N+1. Explain to me how, exactly, this is evidence of a slump and not simple regression to the mean?

how can you throw out injuries when talking about a jinx/ I think all the names with injured on that list gives me reason to think at least a little.

First off, the theory is that sophomore players are likely to see a decline in scoring, not that they're likely to get injured. Second off, even if we keep in the injuries- those sophomore RBs played an average of 12.85 games in year N+1. If I recall correctly, the average NFL RB only plays 13 games per season. That's not enough of a difference for me to conclude that sophomore RBs are any more likely to miss time than any other RB.Basically, sophomore RBs see their scoring regress... by the same amount as every other RB. Sophomore RBs are likely to get injured... at the same rate as every other RB. The "sophomore slump" is a myth.

In other words... what sophomore jinx?Maybe we should downgrade Fred Taylor because of the 10th-year Jinx, and Tomlinson because of the 7th-year jinx. I'm sure I could find examples of 10th year and 7th year players regressing. I could also find examples of 3rd year, 4th year, 5th year, 6th year, 8th year, and 9th year players regressing, and apparently the only bit of data needed to prove a jinx is an example of individuals suffering from it (regardless of how the population as a whole has fared in the year in question). Heck, why not just downgrade all runningbacks equally, because they're clearly all jinxed?

Simply adding a "good posting" smilie would be a gross understatement. This is a brilliant post by someone who truly understands football, probability & statistics, and life. Oh, let me add that MJD is the best RBBC back and should be drafted accordingly. Don't think I'd take him ahead of McGahee, Edge, Benson, or maybe Ronnie Brown. He should regress to the mean and the addition of a healthy Greg Jones probably won't help his goal-line opportunities.

 

[-Crippler-]

Those are good points The Dirty Word, but as impressive those numbers are for Fred Taylor........they didn't stop Drew Jones from doing his thing, meaning he was good enough to catch the coaches eye and bust onto the scene.

If the coaches gave him the ball in those situations last year without really knowing what they had in him, they're certainly going to do that this year.

To say he's going to get 15 plus TD's is a tough act for any RB in the league outside of the top 3 or 4.

You know what surprised me as I was going over some stats.......many of us think of this guy as a goaline bruiser, someone you can only bring in to get those tough yards.

This guy in his rookie season and with a healthy Fred Taylor for the most part had 46 receptions. That REALLY surprised me. This guy isn't a one dimensional back.

He also gained 320 yards thru his first 8 games then 600 plus his last 8 games. Since he was a rookie last season, I expect his last 8 games to be more of an indication of what he'll do this season.

And not that anyone would want Fred Taylor to be injured.....but anytime this guy would get the rock 25 plus times in a game, you'd have to put him as a top 5 weekly starter.

I've grown to like Drew Jones more and more as the drafts started and he's found his way onto a couple of my teams. I think I got him at like 2.01 and 2.06 in a couple of 12 team leagues. I'm happy with that....I think he's a producer.

MJD's second half surge was due to Taylor's injury. Are you counting on Taylor to get hurt again?

You're kidding, right?

 

[Tau837]

Those are good points The Dirty Word, but as impressive those numbers are for Fred Taylor........they didn't stop Drew Jones from doing his thing, meaning he was good enough to catch the coaches eye and bust onto the scene.

If the coaches gave him the ball in those situations last year without really knowing what they had in him, they're certainly going to do that this year.

To say he's going to get 15 plus TD's is a tough act for any RB in the league outside of the top 3 or 4.

You know what surprised me as I was going over some stats.......many of us think of this guy as a goaline bruiser, someone you can only bring in to get those tough yards.

This guy in his rookie season and with a healthy Fred Taylor for the most part had 46 receptions. That REALLY surprised me. This guy isn't a one dimensional back.

He also gained 320 yards thru his first 8 games then 600 plus his last 8 games. Since he was a rookie last season, I expect his last 8 games to be more of an indication of what he'll do this season.

And not that anyone would want Fred Taylor to be injured.....but anytime this guy would get the rock 25 plus times in a game, you'd have to put him as a top 5 weekly starter.

I've grown to like Drew Jones more and more as the drafts started and he's found his way onto a couple of my teams. I think I got him at like 2.01 and 2.06 in a couple of 12 team leagues. I'm happy with that....I think he's a producer.

MJD's second half surge was due to Taylor's injury. Are you counting on Taylor to get hurt again?

You're kidding, right?

Hey, I agree that MJD projects better if you project injury to Taylor. How much better is dependent on how much time you project Taylor to miss. I don't project Taylor to get hurt. YMMV.

 

[Keys Myaths]

3. Will he avoid the sophomore jinx? Don't underestimate this.

Ah yes, how could I forget the "sophomore jinx"?http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...879&hl=jinx

People keep mentioning this "sophomore jinx", or this "sophomore slump". Can anyone provide any decent examples of this in action? Other than Michael Clayton, of course. I mean, it's pretty well established that QBs make a bigger jump between year 1 and year 2 than at any other point in their careers. TEs and WRs almost never amount to anything as rookies, so I don't really see how they could "slump" in year 2. This leaves RBs as potential victims of this "sophomore slump".

From 1996 to 2005, there were 23 RBs with 200+ carries in their "freshman year". Here's the list, sorted by fantasy rank, followed by their fantasy finish in their first and second seasons. I've left off guys like Mike Anderson and Dominic Rhodes who were backups in their second year.

Name- Year N rank, Year N+1 rank

Edgerrin James- 1st, 2nd

Clinton Portis- 4th, 5th

Fred Taylor- 4th, 28th (injured, 10 games)

LaDanian Tomlinson- 7th, 3rd

Willis McGahee- 9th, 13th

Eddie George- 8th, 12th

Jamal Lewis- 16th, n/a (injured, 0 games played, but he ranked 12th in his third year)

Corey Dillon- 8th, 17th

Karim Abdul-Jabbar- 9th, 6th

Domanick Williams (nee Davis)- 14th, 5th

Warrick Dunn- 13th, 19th

Anthony Thomas- 13th, 33rd (injured, 12 games)

Kevin Jones- 21st, 31st (injured, 13 games)

Caddilac Williams- 19th, 39th

Ronnie Brown- 23rd, 25th (injured, 13 games)

William Green- 27th, 47th (injured, 7 games)

Ricky Williams- 27th, 18th (injured, 10 games)

Travis Henry- 28th, 8th

Ron Dayne- 29th, 27th

Throwing out all of the players who missed significant time (3 games or more) due to injury, the players ranked 10.9 on average in year N, and 11.7 in year N+1. Explain to me how, exactly, this is evidence of a slump and not simple regression to the mean?

how can you throw out injuries when talking about a jinx/ I think all the names with injured on that list gives me reason to think at least a little.

First off, the theory is that sophomore players are likely to see a decline in scoring, not that they're likely to get injured. Second off, even if we keep in the injuries- those sophomore RBs played an average of 12.85 games in year N+1. If I recall correctly, the average NFL RB only plays 13 games per season. That's not enough of a difference for me to conclude that sophomore RBs are any more likely to miss time than any other RB.Basically, sophomore RBs see their scoring regress... by the same amount as every other RB. Sophomore RBs are likely to get injured... at the same rate as every other RB. The "sophomore slump" is a myth.

In other words... what sophomore jinx?Maybe we should downgrade Fred Taylor because of the 10th-year Jinx, and Tomlinson because of the 7th-year jinx. I'm sure I could find examples of 10th year and 7th year players regressing. I could also find examples of 3rd year, 4th year, 5th year, 6th year, 8th year, and 9th year players regressing, and apparently the only bit of data needed to prove a jinx is an example of individuals suffering from it (regardless of how the population as a whole has fared in the year in question). Heck, why not just downgrade all runningbacks equally, because they're clearly all jinxed?

Simply adding a "good posting" smilie would be a gross understatement. This is a brilliant post by someone who truly understands football, probability & statistics, and life.

That's SSOG for you. He gets ripped a lot because he goes against conventional wisdom, but more often than not, he's one of the most valuable posters ever to come in here.It's like reading the fantasy football version of Moneyball every time he posts. It's fantastic.

 

[NY/NJMFDIVER]

Those are good points The Dirty Word, but as impressive those numbers are for Fred Taylor........they didn't stop Drew Jones from doing his thing, meaning he was good enough to catch the coaches eye and bust onto the scene.

If the coaches gave him the ball in those situations last year without really knowing what they had in him, they're certainly going to do that this year.

To say he's going to get 15 plus TD's is a tough act for any RB in the league outside of the top 3 or 4.

You know what surprised me as I was going over some stats.......many of us think of this guy as a goaline bruiser, someone you can only bring in to get those tough yards.

This guy in his rookie season and with a healthy Fred Taylor for the most part had 46 receptions. That REALLY surprised me. This guy isn't a one dimensional back.

He also gained 320 yards thru his first 8 games then 600 plus his last 8 games. Since he was a rookie last season, I expect his last 8 games to be more of an indication of what he'll do this season.

And not that anyone would want Fred Taylor to be injured.....but anytime this guy would get the rock 25 plus times in a game, you'd have to put him as a top 5 weekly starter.

I've grown to like Drew Jones more and more as the drafts started and he's found his way onto a couple of my teams. I think I got him at like 2.01 and 2.06 in a couple of 12 team leagues. I'm happy with that....I think he's a producer.

MJD's second half surge was due to Taylor's injury. Are you counting on Taylor to get hurt again?

As much as I count on the sun to come up.

 

[Tau837]

Those are good points The Dirty Word, but as impressive those numbers are for Fred Taylor........they didn't stop Drew Jones from doing his thing, meaning he was good enough to catch the coaches eye and bust onto the scene.

If the coaches gave him the ball in those situations last year without really knowing what they had in him, they're certainly going to do that this year.

To say he's going to get 15 plus TD's is a tough act for any RB in the league outside of the top 3 or 4.

You know what surprised me as I was going over some stats.......many of us think of this guy as a goaline bruiser, someone you can only bring in to get those tough yards.

This guy in his rookie season and with a healthy Fred Taylor for the most part had 46 receptions. That REALLY surprised me. This guy isn't a one dimensional back.

He also gained 320 yards thru his first 8 games then 600 plus his last 8 games. Since he was a rookie last season, I expect his last 8 games to be more of an indication of what he'll do this season.

And not that anyone would want Fred Taylor to be injured.....but anytime this guy would get the rock 25 plus times in a game, you'd have to put him as a top 5 weekly starter.

I've grown to like Drew Jones more and more as the drafts started and he's found his way onto a couple of my teams. I think I got him at like 2.01 and 2.06 in a couple of 12 team leagues. I'm happy with that....I think he's a producer.

MJD's second half surge was due to Taylor's injury. Are you counting on Taylor to get hurt again?

As much as I count on the sun to come up.

Can you please list the other players who will get hurt this year? That would be quite useful. TIA.

 

[Jayrod]

Those are good points The Dirty Word, but as impressive those numbers are for Fred Taylor........they didn't stop Drew Jones from doing his thing, meaning he was good enough to catch the coaches eye and bust onto the scene.

If the coaches gave him the ball in those situations last year without really knowing what they had in him, they're certainly going to do that this year.

To say he's going to get 15 plus TD's is a tough act for any RB in the league outside of the top 3 or 4.

You know what surprised me as I was going over some stats.......many of us think of this guy as a goaline bruiser, someone you can only bring in to get those tough yards.

This guy in his rookie season and with a healthy Fred Taylor for the most part had 46 receptions. That REALLY surprised me. This guy isn't a one dimensional back.

He also gained 320 yards thru his first 8 games then 600 plus his last 8 games. Since he was a rookie last season, I expect his last 8 games to be more of an indication of what he'll do this season.

And not that anyone would want Fred Taylor to be injured.....but anytime this guy would get the rock 25 plus times in a game, you'd have to put him as a top 5 weekly starter.

I've grown to like Drew Jones more and more as the drafts started and he's found his way onto a couple of my teams. I think I got him at like 2.01 and 2.06 in a couple of 12 team leagues. I'm happy with that....I think he's a producer.

MJD's second half surge was due to Taylor's injury. Are you counting on Taylor to get hurt again?

As much as I count on the sun to come up.

Can you please list the other players who will get hurt this year? That would be quite useful. TIA.

Fred Taylor, Brian Westbrook, Rudi Johnson, Jamal Lewis & Frank Gore.....that's all of the starting RB's my crystal ball would give me.

 

[Tau837]

Those are good points The Dirty Word, but as impressive those numbers are for Fred Taylor........they didn't stop Drew Jones from doing his thing, meaning he was good enough to catch the coaches eye and bust onto the scene.

If the coaches gave him the ball in those situations last year without really knowing what they had in him, they're certainly going to do that this year.

To say he's going to get 15 plus TD's is a tough act for any RB in the league outside of the top 3 or 4.

You know what surprised me as I was going over some stats.......many of us think of this guy as a goaline bruiser, someone you can only bring in to get those tough yards.

This guy in his rookie season and with a healthy Fred Taylor for the most part had 46 receptions. That REALLY surprised me. This guy isn't a one dimensional back.

He also gained 320 yards thru his first 8 games then 600 plus his last 8 games. Since he was a rookie last season, I expect his last 8 games to be more of an indication of what he'll do this season.

And not that anyone would want Fred Taylor to be injured.....but anytime this guy would get the rock 25 plus times in a game, you'd have to put him as a top 5 weekly starter.

I've grown to like Drew Jones more and more as the drafts started and he's found his way onto a couple of my teams. I think I got him at like 2.01 and 2.06 in a couple of 12 team leagues. I'm happy with that....I think he's a producer.

MJD's second half surge was due to Taylor's injury. Are you counting on Taylor to get hurt again?

As much as I count on the sun to come up.

Can you please list the other players who will get hurt this year? That would be quite useful. TIA.

Fred Taylor, Brian Westbrook, Rudi Johnson, Jamal Lewis & Frank Gore.....that's all of the starting RB's my crystal ball would give me.

 

[Thumper]

Those are good points The Dirty Word, but as impressive those numbers are for Fred Taylor........they didn't stop Drew Jones from doing his thing, meaning he was good enough to catch the coaches eye and bust onto the scene.

If the coaches gave him the ball in those situations last year without really knowing what they had in him, they're certainly going to do that this year.

To say he's going to get 15 plus TD's is a tough act for any RB in the league outside of the top 3 or 4.

You know what surprised me as I was going over some stats.......many of us think of this guy as a goaline bruiser, someone you can only bring in to get those tough yards.

This guy in his rookie season and with a healthy Fred Taylor for the most part had 46 receptions. That REALLY surprised me. This guy isn't a one dimensional back.

He also gained 320 yards thru his first 8 games then 600 plus his last 8 games. Since he was a rookie last season, I expect his last 8 games to be more of an indication of what he'll do this season.

And not that anyone would want Fred Taylor to be injured.....but anytime this guy would get the rock 25 plus times in a game, you'd have to put him as a top 5 weekly starter.

I've grown to like Drew Jones more and more as the drafts started and he's found his way onto a couple of my teams. I think I got him at like 2.01 and 2.06 in a couple of 12 team leagues. I'm happy with that....I think he's a producer.

MJD's second half surge was due to Taylor's injury. Are you counting on Taylor to get hurt again?

As much as I count on the sun to come up.

Can you please list the other players who will get hurt this year? That would be quite useful. TIA.

Fred Taylor, Brian Westbrook, Rudi Johnson, Jamal Lewis & Frank Gore.....that's all of the starting RB's my crystal ball would give me.

MJD is a quality rb and is going to have a great year in 2007.

 

[redman]

My head hurts.

 

[GDogg]

My head hurts.

That's hilarious.