MJD (1 Viewer)

[switz]

OTOH, If the Jags do continue to utilize two RBs similar to '06 & '07, then the most significant question, is which back receives the most carries. The most logical conclusion IMO is that MJD is going to become the primary ball carrier.

I was with you until this point.If FT and MJD are both playing, I don't see any way that MJD gets the majority of carries. Especially since FT has been BETTER when getting the larger portion of the RBBC. I don't see how you could say it's logical to assume that at all, as nothing indicates that as the likelihood.As for receptions, it's obvious that MJD is the guy they want in on receiving downs. And that helps his rushing numbers too. (FYI, 3rd down, 6.0YPC - look through the splits) But on running downs, FT is still the man, I don't see those roles changing barring retirement or injury.As for Taylor getting older, I wonder what the breakdown is for RBs doing it at 30, or 31, as Taylor has...

 

[geoff8695]

OTOH, If the Jags do continue to utilize two RBs similar to '06 & '07, then the most significant question, is which back receives the most carries. The most logical conclusion IMO is that MJD is going to become the primary ball carrier.

I was with you until this point.If FT and MJD are both playing, I don't see any way that MJD gets the majority of carries. Especially since FT has been BETTER when getting the larger portion of the RBBC. I don't see how you could say it's logical to assume that at all, as nothing indicates that as the likelihood.

As for receptions, it's obvious that MJD is the guy they want in on receiving downs. And that helps his rushing numbers too. (FYI, 3rd down, 6.0YPC - look through the splits) But on running downs, FT is still the man, I don't see those roles changing barring retirement or injury.

As for Taylor getting older, I wonder what the breakdown is for RBs doing it at 30, or 31, as Taylor has...

This is not entirely true...2006:

- 136 of MJD's 166 carries came on 1st or 2nd down and averaged 5.96YPC

- 226 of Fred Taylor's 231 carries came on 1st or 2nd down and averaged 4.90YPC

2007:

- 124 of MJD's 167 carries came on 1st or 2nd down and averaged 4.35YPC

- 219 of Taylor's 223 carries came on 1st or 2nd down and averaged 5.39YPC

Only in 2007 did taylor's YPC exceed MJD's on 1st and 2nd down rushes. Also the bulk of MJD's rushing attemtpts came on 1st and 2nd downs, NOT primarily on 3rd downs.

This simply demonstrates that '06 was a great YPC season for MJD (5.67 YPC overall) and that '07 was a great YPC season for Taylor (5.39 YPC overall), and nothing more. Nor does it point to some kind of deficiency on the part of MJD or superiority on the part of Taylor when it comes to 1st or 2nd down attempts.

One interesting side note:

MJD's YPC was actually higher on 1st and 2nd down rushes in 2006 than it was on 3rd down rushes...

 

[J-Rock]

I think you have to rank MJD as a top 10 back regardless of whether he ever becomes the every down back. He ranked 8th and 11th in his first 2 seasons fantasy wise.

The way I rank him from a dynasty perspective is that he is a top RB2 on my list. Paired with a consistent producer he would make for a very solid fantasy backfield. His ceiling is very high and his floor is probably still a top tier RB2. I don't think he'll ever consistently be a top 5 back (he might break top 5 in a great year) even if he does get close to 300 carries a season.

He is a little streaky so using him as an RB1 can get frustrating but using him as RB2 can give you huge spikes in good weeks.

 

[geoff8695]

I think you have to rank MJD as a top 10 back regardless of whether he ever becomes the every down back. He ranked 8th and 11th in his first 2 seasons fantasy wise.

The way I rank him from a dynasty perspective is that he is a top RB2 on my list. Paired with a consistent producer he would make for a very solid fantasy backfield. His ceiling is very high and his floor is probably still a top tier RB2. I don't think he'll ever consistently be a top 5 back (he might break top 5 in a great year) even if he does get close to 300 carries a season.

He is a little streaky so using him as an RB1 can get frustrating but using him as RB2 can give you huge spikes in good weeks.

If he can finish 8th and 11th in fantasy scoring in his rookie and 'sophomore' seasons with merely 160 some-odd carries, than why wouldn't 250-300+ carries put him in top 3-5 RB status? I agree with you that MJD has a very high ceiling, and that his floor is likely a top RB2, and also that he is a terrific 2nd RB in any fantasy backfield. However, why wouldn't you expect his current top 10 performance to jump up to top 5 with a greater workload? What leads you to believe that he will become significantly less effective with an additional 100-150 carries?

We can argue about whether or not he receives the additional carries, but this is the first time I can recall anyone arguing that MJD would perform significantly worse if he does receive additional carries.

 

[switz]

OTOH, If the Jags do continue to utilize two RBs similar to '06 & '07, then the most significant question, is which back receives the most carries. The most logical conclusion IMO is that MJD is going to become the primary ball carrier.

I was with you until this point.If FT and MJD are both playing, I don't see any way that MJD gets the majority of carries. Especially since FT has been BETTER when getting the larger portion of the RBBC. I don't see how you could say it's logical to assume that at all, as nothing indicates that as the likelihood.

As for receptions, it's obvious that MJD is the guy they want in on receiving downs. And that helps his rushing numbers too. (FYI, 3rd down, 6.0YPC - look through the splits) But on running downs, FT is still the man, I don't see those roles changing barring retirement or injury.

As for Taylor getting older, I wonder what the breakdown is for RBs doing it at 30, or 31, as Taylor has...

This is not entirely true...2006:

- 136 of MJD's 166 carries came on 1st or 2nd down and averaged 5.96YPC

- 226 of Fred Taylor's 231 carries came on 1st or 2nd down and averaged 4.90YPC

2007:

- 124 of MJD's 167 carries came on 1st or 2nd down and averaged 4.35YPC

- 219 of Taylor's 223 carries came on 1st or 2nd down and averaged 5.39YPC

Only in 2007 did taylor's YPC exceed MJD's on 1st and 2nd down rushes. Also the bulk of MJD's rushing attemtpts came on 1st and 2nd downs, NOT primarily on 3rd downs.

This simply demonstrates that '06 was a great YPC season for MJD (5.67 YPC overall) and that '07 was a great YPC season for Taylor (5.39 YPC overall), and nothing more. Nor does it point to some kind of deficiency on the part of MJD or superiority on the part of Taylor when it comes to 1st or 2nd down attempts.

One interesting side note:

MJD's YPC was actually higher on 1st and 2nd down rushes in 2006 than it was on 3rd down rushes...

Not sure where you are getting your numbers from, I'm going form ESPN:MJD

2007 - 124 carries, 537 yards, 4.330 YPC on first and second down.

A little bit of a breakdown gives a better picture...

On first down, 4.8 YPC, however - 1st < 6 yards to go: 0.6 YPC, 1st with >6 yards to go? 5.4 YPC

On second down, 3.6 YPC

Third down, 6.0 YPC. <6 4.0 YPC, >6 11.0 YPC.

Third down and passing downs really pumped up the YPC.

2006, very similar:

1st <6, 1.6 YPC, >6 6.8 YPC

2nd down, much better, 5.4 YPC

3rd, <6 3.7 YPC, >6 8.5 YPC

FT

2007 -

1st <6 22.3 YPC, >6 5.0 YPC

2nd <6 5.8 PC, >6 5.1 YPC

3rd (4 carries) <6 5.0 YPC, >6 7.0 YPC

2007 -

1st <6 3.8 YPC, >6 5.5 YPC

2nd <6 4.4 YPC, >6 3.9 YPC

3rd (5 carries) <6 9.5 YPC, >6 1.0 YPC

As is evidenced, MJD got a larger proportion of passing situation carries, and it was in those situations his YPC was high. On running downs his YPC was lower. Fred Taylor's was high on running downs and he was seldom used in obvious passing situations.

Hence, being used on passing downs pumped up MJDs YPC, and Taylor has been better in obvious running down. At least form all the research I could dig up. That doesn't mean MJD stinks, just I don't see any reason why he would replace Taylor on running downs.

 

[geoff8695]

OTOH, If the Jags do continue to utilize two RBs similar to '06 & '07, then the most significant question, is which back receives the most carries. The most logical conclusion IMO is that MJD is going to become the primary ball carrier.

I was with you until this point.If FT and MJD are both playing, I don't see any way that MJD gets the majority of carries. Especially since FT has been BETTER when getting the larger portion of the RBBC. I don't see how you could say it's logical to assume that at all, as nothing indicates that as the likelihood.

As for receptions, it's obvious that MJD is the guy they want in on receiving downs. And that helps his rushing numbers too. (FYI, 3rd down, 6.0YPC - look through the splits) But on running downs, FT is still the man, I don't see those roles changing barring retirement or injury.

As for Taylor getting older, I wonder what the breakdown is for RBs doing it at 30, or 31, as Taylor has...

This is not entirely true...2006:

- 136 of MJD's 166 carries came on 1st or 2nd down and averaged 5.96YPC

- 226 of Fred Taylor's 231 carries came on 1st or 2nd down and averaged 4.90YPC

2007:

- 124 of MJD's 167 carries came on 1st or 2nd down and averaged 4.35YPC

- 219 of Taylor's 223 carries came on 1st or 2nd down and averaged 5.39YPC

Only in 2007 did taylor's YPC exceed MJD's on 1st and 2nd down rushes. Also the bulk of MJD's rushing attemtpts came on 1st and 2nd downs, NOT primarily on 3rd downs.

This simply demonstrates that '06 was a great YPC season for MJD (5.67 YPC overall) and that '07 was a great YPC season for Taylor (5.39 YPC overall), and nothing more. Nor does it point to some kind of deficiency on the part of MJD or superiority on the part of Taylor when it comes to 1st or 2nd down attempts.

One interesting side note:

MJD's YPC was actually higher on 1st and 2nd down rushes in 2006 than it was on 3rd down rushes...

Not sure where you are getting your numbers from, I'm going form ESPN:MJD

2007 - 124 carries, 537 yards, 4.330 YPC on first and second down.

A little bit of a breakdown gives a better picture...

On first down, 4.8 YPC, however - 1st < 6 yards to go: 0.6 YPC, 1st with >6 yards to go? 5.4 YPC

On second down, 3.6 YPC

Third down, 6.0 YPC. <6 4.0 YPC, >6 11.0 YPC.

Third down and passing downs really pumped up the YPC.

2006, very similar:

1st <6, 1.6 YPC, >6 6.8 YPC

2nd down, much better, 5.4 YPC

3rd, <6 3.7 YPC, >6 8.5 YPC

FT

2007 -

1st <6 22.3 YPC, >6 5.0 YPC

2nd <6 5.8 PC, >6 5.1 YPC

3rd (4 carries) <6 5.0 YPC, >6 7.0 YPC

2007 -

1st <6 3.8 YPC, >6 5.5 YPC

2nd <6 4.4 YPC, >6 3.9 YPC

3rd (5 carries) <6 9.5 YPC, >6 1.0 YPC

As is evidenced, MJD got a larger proportion of passing situation carries, and it was in those situations his YPC was high. On running downs his YPC was lower. Fred Taylor's was high on running downs and he was seldom used in obvious passing situations.

Hence, being used on passing downs pumped up MJDs YPC, and Taylor has been better in obvious running down. At least form all the research I could dig up. That doesn't mean MJD stinks, just I don't see any reason why he would replace Taylor on running downs.

I just confirmed MJD's stats on 1st and 2nd down from 2006 and 2007 at ESPN, and they match the data dominator I cited in an earlier post. Methinks you are using very limited sample sizes of unusual rushing situations to make your argument (i.e. carries on 1st and less than 6yds to go ).According to ESPN in 2006 MJD accounted for 136 carries on 1st and 2nd down, 811yards, and a 5.96YPC (same as FBG Data Dominator):

1st down 75carries 482yds. 6.4YPC

2nd down 61carries 329yds. 5.4YPC

According to ESPN in 2007 MJD accounted for 124 carries on 1st and 2nd down, 537yards, and a 4.33YPC (FBG Data Dominator came up 4.35YPC - a difference of .02):

1st down 74carries 356yds. 4.8YPC

2nd down 50carries 181yds. 3.6YPC

I could use situational splits all day to make ridiculous arguments. i.e., According to ESPN during Fred Taylor's first two years in the NFL he was even worse than MJD on 1st down and less than 6 yds. to go (18 carries, 4yards, .22YPC) Yet in 2007 Fred Taylor averaged 22.3YPC on 1st down and less than 6yards to go (that's b/c he ran for a 62yd TD on one of his 3 attempts in this small statistical pool).

What's your point?

 

[Enforcer]

How many carries can any RB have that are 1st and less than 6 to go? The majority of these must be goal line carries. No? Am I way off base there?

Obviously varying opinions on MJD. I think he's plenty talented, but I've also been a fan of Taylor. Taylor's age factors mostly into my opinion. When RBs fall off the wagon it happens quickly. If Taylor has another great season someone else will reap the rewards. I won't be willing to draft him. I would rather take the chance that Jones Drew will be getting more carries.

 

[SSOG]

How many carries can any RB have that are 1st and less than 6 to go? The majority of these must be goal line carries. No? Am I way off base there?

Goal line situations or runs after a 1st-down offsides penalty. And which situation is which makes a huge difference- someone with 3 carries after an offsides is going to have a radically different ypc than someone with 3 carries at the goal line.Also, I don't think 1st-and-short is a "running situation", anyway. Running situations are 3rd or 4th and short. I was curious to see how MJD and Taylor compared in true running situations (3rd or 4th down, 3 yards or less to go), so I fired up the Data Dominator. First, I sorted RBs by ypc in rushing situations with a minimum of 25 carries to qualify... but I only got two results (MJD and Westy were the only two RBs in the league with more than 25 such carries, and MJD's 32 led the league by a significant margin). Then I dropped the minimum to qualify down to 10, but still no sign of Taylor. I dropped it to 5... and still no Taylor. Finally, I eliminated the minimum, and there was Fred Taylor, with three such carries all season long. Three. While Jones-Drew led the league. Kind of disputes Switz's claim that "on running downs, FT is still the man".For what it's worth, Taylor's ypc was 5.0 while MJD's was 3.75... but ypc isn't the best measure of an RB here, conversion% is. Taylor converted one of his three carries. MJD converted 18 of his 32.Also, Taylor only got 3 such carries last year, too, meaning Fred Taylor isn't STILL the man on rushing downs in large part because he never WAS the man on rushing downs.

 

[FantasyTrader]

But Switz is scouring splits as we speak. And when he comes back it won't be to say, "Wow. Great points. Maybe I should rethink my stance."

 

[switz]

OTOH, If the Jags do continue to utilize two RBs similar to '06 & '07, then the most significant question, is which back receives the most carries. The most logical conclusion IMO is that MJD is going to become the primary ball carrier.

I was with you until this point.If FT and MJD are both playing, I don't see any way that MJD gets the majority of carries. Especially since FT has been BETTER when getting the larger portion of the RBBC. I don't see how you could say it's logical to assume that at all, as nothing indicates that as the likelihood.

As for receptions, it's obvious that MJD is the guy they want in on receiving downs. And that helps his rushing numbers too. (FYI, 3rd down, 6.0YPC - look through the splits) But on running downs, FT is still the man, I don't see those roles changing barring retirement or injury.

As for Taylor getting older, I wonder what the breakdown is for RBs doing it at 30, or 31, as Taylor has...

This is not entirely true...2006:

- 136 of MJD's 166 carries came on 1st or 2nd down and averaged 5.96YPC

- 226 of Fred Taylor's 231 carries came on 1st or 2nd down and averaged 4.90YPC

2007:

- 124 of MJD's 167 carries came on 1st or 2nd down and averaged 4.35YPC

- 219 of Taylor's 223 carries came on 1st or 2nd down and averaged 5.39YPC

Only in 2007 did taylor's YPC exceed MJD's on 1st and 2nd down rushes. Also the bulk of MJD's rushing attemtpts came on 1st and 2nd downs, NOT primarily on 3rd downs.

This simply demonstrates that '06 was a great YPC season for MJD (5.67 YPC overall) and that '07 was a great YPC season for Taylor (5.39 YPC overall), and nothing more. Nor does it point to some kind of deficiency on the part of MJD or superiority on the part of Taylor when it comes to 1st or 2nd down attempts.

One interesting side note:

MJD's YPC was actually higher on 1st and 2nd down rushes in 2006 than it was on 3rd down rushes...

Not sure where you are getting your numbers from, I'm going form ESPN:MJD

2007 - 124 carries, 537 yards, 4.330 YPC on first and second down.

A little bit of a breakdown gives a better picture...

On first down, 4.8 YPC, however - 1st < 6 yards to go: 0.6 YPC, 1st with >6 yards to go? 5.4 YPC

On second down, 3.6 YPC

Third down, 6.0 YPC. <6 4.0 YPC, >6 11.0 YPC.

Third down and passing downs really pumped up the YPC.

2006, very similar:

1st <6, 1.6 YPC, >6 6.8 YPC

2nd down, much better, 5.4 YPC

3rd, <6 3.7 YPC, >6 8.5 YPC

FT

2007 -

1st <6 22.3 YPC, >6 5.0 YPC

2nd <6 5.8 PC, >6 5.1 YPC

3rd (4 carries) <6 5.0 YPC, >6 7.0 YPC

2007 -

1st <6 3.8 YPC, >6 5.5 YPC

2nd <6 4.4 YPC, >6 3.9 YPC

3rd (5 carries) <6 9.5 YPC, >6 1.0 YPC

As is evidenced, MJD got a larger proportion of passing situation carries, and it was in those situations his YPC was high. On running downs his YPC was lower. Fred Taylor's was high on running downs and he was seldom used in obvious passing situations.

Hence, being used on passing downs pumped up MJDs YPC, and Taylor has been better in obvious running down. At least form all the research I could dig up. That doesn't mean MJD stinks, just I don't see any reason why he would replace Taylor on running downs.

I just confirmed MJD's stats on 1st and 2nd down from 2006 and 2007 at ESPN, and they match the data dominator I cited in an earlier post. Methinks you are using very limited sample sizes of unusual rushing situations to make your argument (i.e. carries on 1st and less than 6yds to go ).

The 6 yard mark is where ESPN breaks it down, not me.I'm not sure why they choose 6, but if you look at the stats (sample size is determined not by me, but my # carries MJD had in those situations) it shows MJD got good yardage on passing downs. Not so much on running downs. That's not a twisting of stats... it's just what the stats show.

I could use situational splits all day to make ridiculous arguments. i.e., According to ESPN during Fred Taylor's first two years in the NFL he was even worse than MJD on 1st down and less than 6 yds. to go (18 carries, 4yards, .22YPC) Yet in 2007 Fred Taylor averaged 22.3YPC on 1st down and less than 6yards to go (that's b/c he ran for a 62yd TD on one of his 3 attempts in this small statistical pool).

What's your point?

Fred Taylor's first two years he wasn't sharing time with MJD, so their situations aren't comparable. Apples and Oranges. Different OL, different offensive scheme, different supporting cast, etc.These past two years, both behind the same OL, same offense, same players (though those players changed, they both shared the same supporting cast at the same times) - nothing indicates that Taylor and MJD will suddenly switch roles. I don't think Taylor is anywhere near as good as MJD on passing downs, so I don't see them moving Taylor to that role. And I don't see why they would eliminate or reduce Taylor's role with him being so successful.

Maybe when father time catches up - which is inevitable, a change will occur. But I wouldn't bet on it being this upcoming season.

Obviously in a dynasty MJD holds tremendous value - but to say he's going to be a steal in the second/third round in redrafts just isn't likely to be true.

 

[switz]

How many carries can any RB have that are 1st and less than 6 to go? The majority of these must be goal line carries. No? Am I way off base there?

Goal line situations or runs after a 1st-down offsides penalty. And which situation is which makes a huge difference- someone with 3 carries after an offsides is going to have a radically different ypc than someone with 3 carries at the goal line.Also, I don't think 1st-and-short is a "running situation", anyway. Running situations are 3rd or 4th and short. I was curious to see how MJD and Taylor compared in true running situations (3rd or 4th down, 3 yards or less to go), so I fired up the Data Dominator. First, I sorted RBs by ypc in rushing situations with a minimum of 25 carries to qualify... but I only got two results (MJD and Westy were the only two RBs in the league with more than 25 such carries, and MJD's 32 led the league by a significant margin). Then I dropped the minimum to qualify down to 10, but still no sign of Taylor. I dropped it to 5... and still no Taylor. Finally, I eliminated the minimum, and there was Fred Taylor, with three such carries all season long. Three. While Jones-Drew led the league. Kind of disputes Switz's claim that "on running downs, FT is still the man".For what it's worth, Taylor's ypc was 5.0 while MJD's was 3.75... but ypc isn't the best measure of an RB here, conversion% is. Taylor converted one of his three carries. MJD converted 18 of his 32.Also, Taylor only got 3 such carries last year, too, meaning Fred Taylor isn't STILL the man on rushing downs in large part because he never WAS the man on rushing downs.

Good points, though I would contend that short-yardage is an entirely different situation altogether.1st and second are generally running downs, unless you get into long yardage, and then defenses usually assume pass. Third down, anything longer than 3 yards out is generally a passing down. That doesn't include short yardage work like 3rd and 1 or 2, or GL duty. Those are separate situations.We might phrase this a different way. Many teams have 3rd down/passing situation specialists, and GL/SY specialists. Then they have a primary ball carrier.In primary ball carrier situations, Taylor has been better than MJD.You can argue semantics if you want, as you have. I think you understood my point and were just trying to contend by using semantics though.Again, as I argued last offseason, MJD doesn't stink, but there's no way he's supplanting Taylor as the primary carrier barring injury or sever erosion of skills on Taylor's account in one offseason.

 

[geoff8695]

Switz,

It's OK that we can't see eye to eye in our differing interpretation of the statistics (particularly the 'splits' from ESPN). We're just gonna have to agree to disagree on what these stats mean, and whether or not we should infer from them that Fred Taylor is more effective than MJD on "running downs".

Sorry if I'm but IMO MJD had a great YPC season in 2006 and FT had a similarly great YPC season in 2007, nothing more. As far as the future goes, clearly I'm counting on the 32 year old FT to be unable to repeat his 2007 performance, and that MJD will outperform him from here on out (resulting in an increased workload).

Time will tell, but I don't feel I'm going out on much of a limb with this prediction...

 

[SSOG]

Again, as I argued last offseason, MJD doesn't stink, but there's no way he's supplanting Taylor as the primary carrier barring injury or sever erosion of skills on Taylor's account in one offseason.

My two responses to that are that (a) he has now TWICE proven that he doesn't need to supplant Taylor as the primary carrier in order to justify his draft position (and prove to be one of the best RB2s in the league, even a borderline RB1), and (b) betting AGAINST a severe erosion of skills on the part of a 32-year old RB with a lot of wear and tear and a spotty injury history probably isn't the smartest bet in town.If nothing changes, MJD is a good bet to meet expectations. If something changes, MJD is a good bet to exceed expectations. It's a good bet that something's going to change. MJD strikes me as a very good bet, then- high ceiling, high floor, low bust risk.

 

[David Yudkin]

What's interesting about MJD is that last offseason all the things I said would happen did (lower ypc, no increase in touches, decrease in TD, etc.), yet he still proved to be worth close to what people paid for him to acquire him. Some people had him pegged for the Top 5 even splitting time with Taylor (which was tough to swallow). His production actually DROPPED OFF by 55 fantasy points.

However, given the fluky year that was with regard to RB production, MJD's numbers actually made him the #13 RB with 172 fantasy points scored. In the 5 years prior to last year, here's what 172 points would have ranked: 22, 15, 21, 18, 22.

Anyone that took MJD in the first round probably felt a little disappointed but he wasn't a total bust like some other RBs taken before, near, or just after him (LJ, SA, Maroney, Bush, Rudi, Benson, Henry, etc.).

I agree that even with Taylor MJD will be a decent fantasy asset, but the cost to get him will still involve a premium that is based on Taylor having a reduced role or being out of the lineup.

 

[chocolate bomber]

Greg Jones re-signed!

 

[Phurfur]

What's interesting about MJD is that last offseason all the things I said would happen did (lower ypc, no increase in touches, decrease in TD, etc.), yet he still proved to be worth close to what people paid for him to acquire him. Some people had him pegged for the Top 5 even splitting time with Taylor (which was tough to swallow). His production actually DROPPED OFF by 55 fantasy points.

However, given the fluky year that was with regard to RB production, MJD's numbers actually made him the #13 RB with 172 fantasy points scored. In the 5 years prior to last year, here's what 172 points would have ranked: 22, 15, 21, 18, 22.

Anyone that took MJD in the first round probably felt a little disappointed but he wasn't a total bust like some other RBs taken before, near, or just after him (LJ, SA, Maroney, Bush, Rudi, Benson, Henry, etc.).

I agree that even with Taylor MJD will be a decent fantasy asset, but the cost to get him will still involve a premium that is based on Taylor having a reduced role or being out of the lineup.

Nice stat, it kind of puts the season in perspective.

 

[switz]

What's interesting about MJD is that last offseason all the things I said would happen did (lower ypc, no increase in touches, decrease in TD, etc.), yet he still proved to be worth close to what people paid for him to acquire him. Some people had him pegged for the Top 5 even splitting time with Taylor (which was tough to swallow). His production actually DROPPED OFF by 55 fantasy points.

However, given the fluky year that was with regard to RB production, MJD's numbers actually made him the #13 RB with 172 fantasy points scored. In the 5 years prior to last year, here's what 172 points would have ranked: 22, 15, 21, 18, 22.

Anyone that took MJD in the first round probably felt a little disappointed but he wasn't a total bust like some other RBs taken before, near, or just after him (LJ, SA, Maroney, Bush, Rudi, Benson, Henry, etc.).

I agree that even with Taylor MJD will be a decent fantasy asset, but the cost to get him will still involve a premium that is based on Taylor having a reduced role or being out of the lineup.

If last season had been near average for RBs, then MJD owners would have been crying more loudly about their disappointment. But then I guess the catch-22 is, if the season had been nearer average would MJD's numbers have been better?However, I don't see it that way, because the reason the season was bad was due to the disproportionately large number of RBs that got injured. Had Ronnie Brown, Steven Jackson, et al stayed healthy, MJD would have finished much lower in the overalls. We even had this discussion I think in this thread about how he was such a great buy in comparison to guys around him, but all those guys were injured. Health is more luck than anything.

Of these:

(LJ, SA, Maroney, Bush, Rudi, Benson, Henry, etc.).

Only Benson was a bust - the rest struggled with injuries, right?

 

[geoff8695]

What's interesting about MJD is that last offseason all the things I said would happen did (lower ypc, no increase in touches, decrease in TD, etc.), yet he still proved to be worth close to what people paid for him to acquire him. Some people had him pegged for the Top 5 even splitting time with Taylor (which was tough to swallow). His production actually DROPPED OFF by 55 fantasy points.

However, given the fluky year that was with regard to RB production, MJD's numbers actually made him the #13 RB with 172 fantasy points scored. In the 5 years prior to last year, here's what 172 points would have ranked: 22, 15, 21, 18, 22.

Anyone that took MJD in the first round probably felt a little disappointed but he wasn't a total bust like some other RBs taken before, near, or just after him (LJ, SA, Maroney, Bush, Rudi, Benson, Henry, etc.).

I agree that even with Taylor MJD will be a decent fantasy asset, but the cost to get him will still involve a premium that is based on Taylor having a reduced role or being out of the lineup.

Nice stat, it kind of puts the season in perspective.

Interesting stat perhaps, but I wouldn't say it lends much perspective to MJD's 2007 season.In 2007 Fred Taylor enjoyed a career year, while MJD received only 167 carries.

In 2007 MJD was the RB who was relied on in short yardage situations and was certainly keyed upon at the goal line by opposing defenses.

In 2007 MJD got off to a slow start under the new OC, but from the 4th game on was a solid fantasy starter.

In 2007 MJD was the #11 fantasy RB through week 16, and then was held out in week 17 so the Jags could rest their starters for the playoffs.

If anything I'm extremely impressed that MJD still managed to live up to his ADP and rack up solid stats, including over 1,100 combined rushing/receiving yards and 9 TDs (not including kick returns). This despite only 167 carries, being relied upon as the short yardage specialist, having to share with Fred Taylor during FT's highest YPC season of his career, getting off to a slow start under the new OC, and then being held out of the final regular season game.

Despite all of this adversity Jones Drew still managed to perform as a borderline RB1 2007, and even if you put this in the 'perspective' of prior fantasy seasons, then his reduced stats in '07 would still make him no worse than a RB2 in any of the previous 5 years...

 

[David Yudkin]

What's interesting about MJD is that last offseason all the things I said would happen did (lower ypc, no increase in touches, decrease in TD, etc.), yet he still proved to be worth close to what people paid for him to acquire him. Some people had him pegged for the Top 5 even splitting time with Taylor (which was tough to swallow). His production actually DROPPED OFF by 55 fantasy points.

However, given the fluky year that was with regard to RB production, MJD's numbers actually made him the #13 RB with 172 fantasy points scored. In the 5 years prior to last year, here's what 172 points would have ranked: 22, 15, 21, 18, 22.

Anyone that took MJD in the first round probably felt a little disappointed but he wasn't a total bust like some other RBs taken before, near, or just after him (LJ, SA, Maroney, Bush, Rudi, Benson, Henry, etc.).

I agree that even with Taylor MJD will be a decent fantasy asset, but the cost to get him will still involve a premium that is based on Taylor having a reduced role or being out of the lineup.

Nice stat, it kind of puts the season in perspective.

Interesting stat perhaps, but I wouldn't say it lends much perspective to MJD's 2007 season.In 2007 Fred Taylor enjoyed a career year, while MJD received only 167 carries.

In 2007 MJD was the RB who was relied on in short yardage situations and was certainly keyed upon at the goal line by opposing defenses.

In 2007 MJD got off to a slow start under the new OC, but from the 4th game on was a solid fantasy starter.

In 2007 MJD was the #11 fantasy RB through week 16, and then was held out in week 17 so the Jags could rest their starters for the playoffs.

If anything I'm extremely impressed that MJD still managed to live up to his ADP and rack up solid stats, including over 1,100 combined rushing/receiving yards and 9 TDs (not including kick returns). This despite only 167 carries, being relied upon as the short yardage specialist, having to share with Fred Taylor during FT's highest YPC season of his career, getting off to a slow start under the new OC, and then being held out of the final regular season game.

Despite all of this adversity Jones Drew still managed to perform as a borderline RB1 2007, and even if you put this in the 'perspective' of prior fantasy seasons, then his reduced stats in '07 would still make him no worse than a RB2 in any of the previous 5 years...

Everything is perspective, as the glass can be half full or half empty. In 2006, MJD was a draft day still and ranked in the Top 10. In 2007, in many of my leagues MJD was a Top 10 (even as high as Top 5 in one league) pick that almost hit the Top 10 but would not have come close in most years. His overall fantasy production dropped 25%.Even so, his relative VALUE was not as high last year vs in 2006 (it was almost half as much from 06 to 07). So sure, he was an ok pick but he was not going to be the piece that won a league last year. He wasn't great, nor was he terrible. His value was derived mostly from other guys getting hurt. MJD didn't get hurt, so he had value almost by default.

 

[geoff8695]

...Anyone that took MJD in the first round probably felt a little disappointed but he wasn't a total bust like some other RBs taken before, near, or just after him (LJ, SA, Maroney, Bush, Rudi, Benson, Henry, etc.).

If you took MJD in the first round of a redraft (IMO a foolish thing to do in '07), then I agree that his performance would have been a bit disappointing. OTOH dynasty owners shouldn't be overly dissapointed. MJD proved that his rookie season was no fluke. He was still effective and productive as both an NFL and as a fantasy RB (despite unfavorable circumstances).

I agree that even with Taylor MJD will be a decent fantasy asset, but the cost to get him will still involve a premium that is based on Taylor having a reduced role or being out of the lineup.

I also agree with you that MJD's cost will involve a premium based on the expectation of Taylor having a reduced role or eventually being out of the lineup. However, I would say this premium is well deserved and would even go so far as to recommend paying this premium in dynasty leagues.Many of us disagree on how much larger MJD's role will become, and whether or not he will ever become a primary ballcarrier with 100-150 additional carries per season. But there are certainly worse places for a RB than Jacksonville, and a 32 year old Fred Taylor coming off a career year isn't all that much of an obstacle to be overcome IMO.

Hopefully we can at least agree that MJD has shown tremendous abilities and that Jacksonville is a conducive to fantasy production. If so, then it just comes down to whether or not you believe MJD is destined to receive 100-150 carries that previously went to Taylor. Is that really an unrealistic expectation?

 

[fantasyplayer]

Also, where do you see him in terms of dynasty potential. Would you rather have him or take a shot at an unknown talent like a Stewart, Mendenhall, or Felix Jones who may have a better opportunity at receiving the bulk of the carries? I'm just having a hard time judging him dynasty wise. If it was strictly on talent, he'd easily be top 10 on my list, but the lower opportunity makes me wonder if he'll ever be a truly consistent back on a game to game basis.

He's finished 8th and 13th (in 15 games- 11th if you pro-rate) in his two seasons, despite never getting more than 167 carries. If a guy can finish as a borderline RB1 TWICE on 167 carries, then he's worth owning even if his carries never increase. Heck, even if his carries only go up to 220-250 a year, that's still all he needs in order to be a fantasy S-T-U-D. And if your league rewards return yardage? Fuhgeddaboudit.I'd take MJD over any of this year's rookies, including McFadden. I'd also take him over Marshawn Lynch.

Really? I'm trying to trade LT2 for an elite young RB and a draft pick in my Keep 4 league. Lynch is one that I'm targeting. Would you really rather build your team around MJD than Lynch?

 

[geoff8695]

Everything is perspective, as the glass can be half full or half empty. In 2006, MJD was a draft day still and ranked in the Top 10. In 2007, in many of my leagues MJD was a Top 10 (even as high as Top 5 in one league) pick that almost hit the Top 10 but would not have come close in most years. His overall fantasy production dropped 25%.

Even so, his relative VALUE was not as high last year vs in 2006 (it was almost half as much from 06 to 07). So sure, he was an ok pick but he was not going to be the piece that won a league last year. He wasn't great, nor was he terrible. His value was derived mostly from other guys getting hurt. MJD didn't get hurt, so he had value almost by default.

Agree with you for the most part, but even by your 5 year comparison MJD would have been startable if stacked up against the fantasy RB classes of the last several seasons. As long as you keep in mind the factors that went against him and all of the factors in his favor, then I would be encouraged and inclined to use a "glass half full" outlook.

Now if MJD were 32 years old instead of 22 years old, often injured, one dimensional, or if he simply hadn't been effective when the circumstances didn't all go his way, then I would be much more inclined to use the "glass half empty" perspective. I just don't believe it's warranted here.

 

[geoff8695]

Also, where do you see him in terms of dynasty potential. Would you rather have him or take a shot at an unknown talent like a Stewart, Mendenhall, or Felix Jones who may have a better opportunity at receiving the bulk of the carries? I'm just having a hard time judging him dynasty wise. If it was strictly on talent, he'd easily be top 10 on my list, but the lower opportunity makes me wonder if he'll ever be a truly consistent back on a game to game basis.

He's finished 8th and 13th (in 15 games- 11th if you pro-rate) in his two seasons, despite never getting more than 167 carries. If a guy can finish as a borderline RB1 TWICE on 167 carries, then he's worth owning even if his carries never increase. Heck, even if his carries only go up to 220-250 a year, that's still all he needs in order to be a fantasy S-T-U-D. And if your league rewards return yardage? Fuhgeddaboudit.I'd take MJD over any of this year's rookies, including McFadden. I'd also take him over Marshawn Lynch.

Really? I'm trying to trade LT2 for an elite young RB and a draft pick in my Keep 4 league. Lynch is one that I'm targeting. Would you really rather build your team around MJD than Lynch?

In 2007 Lynch played in 13 games and had 298 total touches and scored 5 more points than MJD with 176.3 (FBG scoring)Lynch is just as young as MJD and appears to be a bellcow RB who does everything well. Also, Buffalo is a good situation for a fantasy RB. I would characterize Lynch as a 'safe' play.

In 2007 MJD had a 'disappointing' performance, played in 15 games and had 207 total touches and scored 171.5 points (FBG scoring)

However, unlike Lynch MJD is in a RBBC - IMO that's only because Fred Taylor is a great RB in his own right, and the Jags have no reason not to utilize both of them. If you want to swing for the fences then MJD has 'elite' abilities.

The real question I keep coming back to is whether or not you think MJD will ever approach primary RB status and get another 100-150 touches? If he does then I can't imagine him being anything other than a perennial top 5 fantasy RB...

 

[SSOG]

Also, where do you see him in terms of dynasty potential. Would you rather have him or take a shot at an unknown talent like a Stewart, Mendenhall, or Felix Jones who may have a better opportunity at receiving the bulk of the carries? I'm just having a hard time judging him dynasty wise. If it was strictly on talent, he'd easily be top 10 on my list, but the lower opportunity makes me wonder if he'll ever be a truly consistent back on a game to game basis.

He's finished 8th and 13th (in 15 games- 11th if you pro-rate) in his two seasons, despite never getting more than 167 carries. If a guy can finish as a borderline RB1 TWICE on 167 carries, then he's worth owning even if his carries never increase. Heck, even if his carries only go up to 220-250 a year, that's still all he needs in order to be a fantasy S-T-U-D. And if your league rewards return yardage? Fuhgeddaboudit.I'd take MJD over any of this year's rookies, including McFadden. I'd also take him over Marshawn Lynch.

Really? I'm trying to trade LT2 for an elite young RB and a draft pick in my Keep 4 league. Lynch is one that I'm targeting. Would you really rather build your team around MJD than Lynch?

Yes. I drafted both Lynch and MJD in an initial dynasty draft this past offseason. I "reached" for Jones-Drew with the 13th overall selection while there were much "better" choices left on the board. During the course of the season, I had to trade him straight up for Randy Moss in order to gear up for my championship run, and despite seeing drastic and immediate dividends from the trade and becoming clearly the best team in the league, I still regret it. The MJD owner wound up with the first and third rookie picks (which will probably become McFadden and Mendenhall) and he owns a couple of other young RBs, so I've been trying to pry MJD back away, but he won't let him go. I already offered Lynch for MJD straight up, but was turned down.Here's what it comes down to for me- in the end, talent wins out, and outside of Peterson, I don't think there's a single RB under the age of 27 in the entire NFL who is more talented than Maurice Jones-Drew. That includes Steven Jackson and Frank Gore, as well as all of the incoming rookies. I think both Jackson and Gore are special talents, and I think that both are probably more ideally suited for a massive workload than MJD, but outside of Brian Westbrook, nobody in the league brings such a wide array of fully developed tools to the table as Jones-Drew. He excels in all three facets of the game- running, receiving, and blocking. He even excels in all of the facets of those facets. He can run with vision through traffic, he can run with speed in the open field, he can run with power and initiate contact, he can run with creativity and avoid contact. He runs great routes, has great hands, is very smart, has great field awareness, and is a devastating blocker. He has patience to wait for his blocks to develop, confidence to make something out of nothing, and wisdom to just get what he can when there's nothing else he can do. And his body type, which was seen as a disadvantage coming out, proves to be a big advantage- it makes him harder to locate in traffic (as evidenced by his ridiculous "fall down and then run untouched to the end zone" play against the Patriots his rookie year), and he always has a leverage advantage because it's impossible for a tackler to get below his pads. MJD is quite simply one of the most obscene talents in the entire NFL, and I have confidence that over the long run, that talent is going to shine through.

As for Marshawn Lynch, I haven't seen anything from him to suggest that he's anything more than just another very good back, another Joseph Addai, Chris Perry, Kevin Jones, LaMont Jordan, Willie Parker, etc. He might continue developing and one day become a stud nonpareil, but in the meantime, he's just another very good back in a long line of very good back. Traditionally, very good backs don't have elite value unless they're paired with a very good system (see: Addai, Joseph), and I'm not convinced that Buffalo is going to be a long-term rushing hotspot. I'm glad that I own Lynch because he should be a reliable RB2 for the next 3+ years for me, but if given the chance to trade a very good RB for one of the most talented RBs the NFL has to offer, you have to believe that I'm going to make that trade every time.

If you're still on the fence, let's put it this way- if Reggie Bush had done exactly what Jones-Drew had done in his first two seasons while splitting time with McAllister, where do you think Bush would be going in initial dynasty drafts right now? Personally, I think he'd be a top-5 pick. Jones-Drew didn't have the hype coming in that Bush did, but in reality, he was a pretty similar prospect, and he has performed like Bush was expected to perform. Think of how excited you were about Reggie Bush in the NFL two years ago. Now apply that to Maurice Jones-Drew.

If nothing else, if Jones-Drew continues sharing the load like this and finishing as a low-end RB1 / high-end RB2, it should prolong his career well beyond what you'd ordinarily expect from a young fantasy-relevant RB, if only because it dramatically decreases his chances of getting a serious injury.

 

[Jedimaster21]

I didn't really comment extensively on MJD until now, because I was involved in a trade that included him. However, I had recently compiled my dynasty RB rankings, and had him ranked third, behind Peterson and Jackson. For many of the reasons stated above, I just don't see how he won't be an elite player in the next couple years, and now is the perfect time to buy. I had to pay a premium, but I think MJD's perceived value is a LOT lower than his actual value right now, so it is a perfect time to get him. He has elite talent, is younger than Adrian Peterson, is in a good system that finally has stability at the QB position and with the coaching staff, and the hall of fame back sharing time with him is 32 years old. He is the goal line back and catches the ball. I am predicting that after next season, he will be impossible to acquire.

 

[Jedimaster21]

I found a press conference in which Del Rio discusses the situation at RB and how they will utilize MJD in the future. It sounds promising to me. Check out about 1:30 into it...

http://www.nfl.com/videos?videoId=09000d5d806ced92

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Thanks Jedi. Sounds like whenever Fred starts to falter JDR does see MJD being "the guy." Not guessing when that might be, but at 32+ it can't be long...

 

[travdogg]

The thing about Fred Taylor is he has had a few washout seasons and is(and always has been been) a physical freak of nature. He could easily play another 2-3 years at a level deserving of 200+ carries.

I saw someone said they would rather have MJD than Lynch. I think they are really underestimating Lynch and overestimating MJD's growth into a top back. MJD is a top-10 dynasty RB, but you can't get to the top-5 without a heavy workload and I don't see this workload coming until Taylor falls off or retires which could be as many as 3 more years. Give me Marshawn Lynch any day of the week.

 

[Jedimaster21]

The thing about Fred Taylor is he has had a few washout seasons and is(and always has been been) a physical freak of nature. He could easily play another 2-3 years at a level deserving of 200+ carries.I saw someone said they would rather have MJD than Lynch. I think they are really underestimating Lynch and overestimating MJD's growth into a top back. MJD is a top-10 dynasty RB, but you can't get to the top-5 without a heavy workload and I don't see this workload coming until Taylor falls off or retires which could be as many as 3 more years. Give me Marshawn Lynch any day of the week.

There is no way that Fred Taylor receives a large role until he is 35 years old. Every stud RB in the NFL is a freak of nature, and most have lost a step by 30 years. MJD is a lot more valuable than Lynch, and IMO it really isn't that close.

 

[travdogg]

The thing about Fred Taylor is he has had a few washout seasons and is(and always has been been) a physical freak of nature. He could easily play another 2-3 years at a level deserving of 200+ carries.I saw someone said they would rather have MJD than Lynch. I think they are really underestimating Lynch and overestimating MJD's growth into a top back. MJD is a top-10 dynasty RB, but you can't get to the top-5 without a heavy workload and I don't see this workload coming until Taylor falls off or retires which could be as many as 3 more years. Give me Marshawn Lynch any day of the week.

There is no way that Fred Taylor receives a large role until he is 35 years old. Every stud RB in the NFL is a freak of nature, and most have lost a step by 30 years. MJD is a lot more valuable than Lynch, and IMO it really isn't that close.

I think that opinion would be the minority. Which gives me a great idea.

 

[geoff8695]

I found a press conference in which Del Rio discusses the situation at RB and how they will utilize MJD in the future. It sounds promising to me. Check out about 1:30 into it...

http://www.nfl.com/videos?videoId=09000d5d806ced92

Del Rio says the Jags are taking advantage of the fact that they have two very explosive backs, and acknowledges that Taylor can't continue to maintain his skills indefinitely. He then goes on to say, "...at some point Fred will get less and Maurice will get more..."

It's about as close as you're going to get to a definitive statement that MJD will eventually be taking over as the 'primary' RB.

As for Fred Taylor, clearly history teaches us that 32 year old RBs are far more likely to be destined for the scrap heap rather than fantasy greatness. IMO now is the time to acquire MJD in dynasty leagues. This may be the last opportunity to grab MJD while he is still somewhat affordable.

Barring unforeseen injury, by this time next year MJD will be valued as a top 5 dynasty RB.

 

[Jedimaster21]

The thing about Fred Taylor is he has had a few washout seasons and is(and always has been been) a physical freak of nature. He could easily play another 2-3 years at a level deserving of 200+ carries.I saw someone said they would rather have MJD than Lynch. I think they are really underestimating Lynch and overestimating MJD's growth into a top back. MJD is a top-10 dynasty RB, but you can't get to the top-5 without a heavy workload and I don't see this workload coming until Taylor falls off or retires which could be as many as 3 more years. Give me Marshawn Lynch any day of the week.

There is no way that Fred Taylor receives a large role until he is 35 years old. Every stud RB in the NFL is a freak of nature, and most have lost a step by 30 years. MJD is a lot more valuable than Lynch, and IMO it really isn't that close.

I think that opinion would be the minority. Which gives me a great idea.

I would probably tend to agree that my opinion is in the minority...which is exactly why I stated what I did in a previous post. Now is a great time to buy MJD because his perceived value is lower than his actual value. I think he is more talented than Lynch, a better receiver, a better goal line back, and in a better offense. Not even in the same tier when it comes to dynasty...