MLB Expansion/ Relocation Possibilities (1 Viewer)

[Doctor Detroit]

The 2 Florida teams need to merge into 1. Then they need to create an expansion team in one of the following places:1. Portland2. Charlotte3. Oklahoma City4. SacramentoPortland is the largest metro area in the country without a baseball team -- the market is larger than Cincinnati, Kansas City, Milwaukee and Cleveland. OKC and Sacramento have been very supportive of minor-league teams, but they are just not major league cities. Charlotte could be viable but the market is starting to get a bit saturated with the Panthers, Hurricane, and now the NBA expansion Bobcats.

Orlando is the largest TV market without a team which is more important. Also you have to add in Columbus and Indianapolis for Cincinnati and Cleveland and Milwaukee has always done well in supporting their team statewide. The Detroit Metro area has more people than Oregon and Oregon would be the smallest state with a major league team. Portland is a small market considering potential TV audience and cities like OKC probably can only support one professional sports franchise long-term. Charlotte would be a much (Raleigh/Durham would work also because this team would be a state draw but Charlotte better because you get the folks from SC also), much better location for a team and Brooklyn would be better than Charlotte. Vegas is also a small market but they have a growing population and can support one professional sports franchise much like San Antonio who has always loved their Spurs. Sacramento probably would be my third choice there but the Giants and A's have a lot of influence there and the market could already be somewhat saturated.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

http://home.nycap.rr.com/nickandaj/marketsize.html was done a few years and being somewhat interested in media markets and the discussion this is by far the best breakdown of actual baseball market sizes (I listed a few examples). Some interesting things in here that dispel inaccuracies like Miami being a small market and St Louis being a medium market. One thing that isn't addressed is regional following which definitely bumps the Red Sox, Cardinals, Cubs, Royals, and probably the Rockies. Also rust belt cities have a good following outside their markets with Philadelphia, Detroit, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh having a good percentage of fans living in some of those other markets or like me, in Europe. Dodgers and Yankees used to have the largest population of frontrunners/bandwagoneers but the Dodgers have been passed by the Red Sux. I still think that there is no doubt there are more Yankee fans out there than any other and it is probably by a fairly significant margain with the Red Sox and Cubs 2nd and 3rd.

I suspect this is going to generate some debate.

It's based on Neilsen TV markets (and estimation of TV market for Toronto and Montreal).

I've considered the top 50 US TV markets plus Toronto and Montreal.

I've made educated guesses at what fraction of markets outside their home to assign to teams; thanks to everyone who's given me suggestions on those.

I've made educated guesses on how to divide up the two team markets with the presumption that some people can be (at least casual) fans of both teams.

I'm willing to adjust the rankings for accuracy or reasonableness, but I've tried to solicit suggestions before putting any numbers here to avoid people trying to make it "come out right".

What I discovered:

When looking at market size as "number of TV households", I found basically three groupings: large market teams (with >130% of average market size), small market teams (with <=70% of average size), and a clump in the middle. I'm going to list them here, along with their market size (as a percentage of average), which markets they cover (with percentages), and how those markets rank among the top 52 US markets (plus TOR and MON).

LARGE MARKET TEAMS

2. New York Mets

Market size: 244

Markets: New York (1/75)

MEDIUM MARKET TEAMS

8. Seattle Mariners

Market size: 112

Markets: Seattle/Tacoma (14/100), Portland (25/80)

Comments: They drop in ranking if you think they don't deserve Portland, but not enough to become small market. Also, this doesn't count Vancouver, primarily because I couldn't find good market size numbers for anything in Canada.

10. Texas Rangers

Market size: 103

Markets: Dallas/Ft. Worth (7/100), San Antonio (39/20), Oklahoma City (47/10)

12. Toronto Blue Jays

Markets: Toronto (10/100), Buffalo (44/30)

13. Florida Marlins

Market size: 95

Markets: Miami/Ft. Lauderdale (18/100), Orlando (24/25), West Palm Beach (46/50)

16. Tampa Devil Rays

Market size: 87

Markets: Tampa/St. Petersburg (16/100), Orlando (24/35)

18. Cleveland Indians

Market size: 84

Markets: Cleveland (15/100), Columbus (36/40)

SMALL MARKET TEAMS

26. St. Louis Cardinals

Market size: 56

Markets: St. Louis (23/100), Memphis (45/10)

30. Kansas City Royals

Market size: 38

Markets: Kansas City (35/100)

 

[Capella]

For whatever it's worth, the Rays are likely to get a new stadium approved in November. Pics and details of it here (it's a pretty cool and unique design):

http://majorleaguedowntown.com

 

[Wrigley]

I think they should saturate NY with 2 if not 3 more teams.

 

[NY/NJMFDIVER]

I think they should saturate NY with 2 if not 3 more teams.

The area could DEFINATELY support one more squad, and it would be intriguing to put one in Brooklyn and one in North Jersey. In fact, if it were the Marlins and Rays, it would be a great rivalary situation with the Mets and Yanks, both being in division, but due to their anti-trust, this will never happen. North Jersey supports like 7 minor league teams, which while not necessarily being analogus to supporting a major league squad(big family promotion), it would be an interesting addition.