Trades will happen, but I don't have a strong feeling about any particular trade and don't want to throw the draft off too much
1. Houston - Reggie Bush, RB, USC - Maybe there's something to this Mario Williams talk. Maybe the Texans are smarting from passing on Williams when his name was Julius Peppers. I still think at the end of the day, Bush is the kind of player you can not pass on. I think they would be open to a trade, but no one has the incentive to pay the steep price to move because of the depth of the elite tier in this draft. 4/24: Negotiations have begun between the Texans and both Reggie Bush and Mario Williams.
2. New Orleans - D'brickashaw Ferguson, OT, Virginia - Mario Williams may well be the #2 prospect in this draft, but to me, Ferguson makes sense to protect the Saints investment in Drew Brees. Williams would not completely shock me, but I dont buy it. A pick of a QB would be deja vu for Brees. 4/24: Mario or D'Brick. Whichever they pass on should end up in NY.
3. Tennessee - Matt Leinart, QB, USC - I dont think the Titans have an incentive to move up if they really are that split between the three QBs. I wouldnt be shocked to see one of the others, but I really like the idea of the high first round QB having a coordinator that he has already flourished with. There's no ramp up, they can get to work from day one. If the Titans are serious about starting their rookie this year, it better be Leinart.
4. NY Jets - Mario Williams, DE, NC State- It will be a real boon to Eric Mangini if this prototype falls to #4. In most drafts, he's an easy top 3 pick and possibly #1. They need a QB, but Williams arguably has even more value in Mangini's hybrid scheme because he is so well suited for multiple roles. 4/24: Mario or D'Brick here, with Leinart a possibility if Tennessee takes Young.
5. Green Bay - A.J. Hawk, LB, Ohio State - Like New York, Green Bay should feel lucky to get a player of this caliber in a rare down year. Hawk is a can't miss prospect, the Reggie Bush of linebackers. He is a perfect tonic for the Packers defense. 4/24: a Packers homer I know is predicting a trade down.
6. San Francisco - Vernon Davis, TE, Maryland - Usually you take a top WR prospect in the second year for your franchise QB. With no A+ WR to take here, the 49ers take a guy with the talent to have that kind of impact, but just at the TE position instead. I wouldnt argue with Michael Huff here, I am that high on him.
7. Oakland - Vince Young, QB, Texas - Add Oakland to the list of big winners if Young falls to them. The freewheeling style of offense that Al Davis seems to prefer will be good for Young's playing style. No knock on Andrew Walter, but he hasnt done anything yet, and Aaron Brooks is just keeping the position warm for someone else. I don't think Young gets past them.
8. Buffalo - Brodrick Bunkley, DT, Florida St - Justice and Huff make sense, too. Ngata has gone from the consensus pick early to a less likely pick. I think he could work in a cover 2, but Bunkley is more ideal. The need is immediate, although you could argue that it was immediate on the offensive line too. Im really left to flip a coin between Bunkley and Justice when I ponder this pick.
9. Detroit - Michael Huff, S, Texas - I don't see anyone on the roster than can effectively patrol the deep middle in the tampa 2. Having Huff play centerfield will allow a more aggressive mindset on D, much the same way Ed Reed and to a lesser extent, Sean Taylor operate in their defenses. Cutler could be the pick. Justice is also a possibility here.
10. Arizona - Winston Justice, OT, USC - 4/24: With some prompting from others I've shifted to seeing the line as a bigger need than a QB of the future here.
11. St. Louis - Tye Hill, DB, Clemson - 4/24: I had Jimmy Williams here, but questions about his character are persisting, and Hill is a very solid pick. Besides, Torry Holt wants them to take Hill, and how can you disagree with him?
12. Cleveland - Haloti Ngata, DT, Oregon - The Browns should be elated if they land this ideal 3-4 NT. There are some nice OLBs on the board here, but there should be some nice prospects left when the Browns pick later on the first day.
13. Baltimore - Jay Cutler, QB, Vanderbilt - 4/24 - now that Justice is gone, I have the Ravens snapping up Cutler.
14. Philadelphia - Chad Jackson, WR, Florida - Ernie Sims looks good here too. WR and OLB have been neglected early in drafts by Philadelphia. The WR corps is looking anemic, and Reggie Brown is better suited to work the shorter stuff while his partner stretches the defense. I think Jackson is just the guy to do that. White would be the shocker.
15. Denver - Manny Lawson, DE/OLB, NC State - Ok, this is my first "out there" pick. Im projecting the Broncos to have acquired Javon Walker. Although, even if they haven't, I'm not sure Holmes would be the pick here. Lawson can work as a 4-3 end with just modest weight gain. Jason Taylor has been successful with a similar body type. He would be an instant boost to their pass rush.
16. Miami - Jimmy Williams, CB, Virginia Tech - 4/24: The secondary badly needs some help. Considered a possible top 10 pick, Williams falls into the Dolphins lap because of questions about his personality and character
17. Minnesota - Ernie Sims, LB, Florida St - He will be a coup for Minnesota if he lasts this long. He can be the disruptive force the Vikings need in their LB corps now that they are implementing the cover 2. I dont blame them if they trade this pick for Schaub, but Sims being there would make it harder.
18. Dallas - Bobby Carpenter, LB, Ohio St - A pick that has made sense for a while. An OLB really seems like the perfect junction of value and need at 18 and at least one of Lawson and Carpenter should be here.
19. San Diego - Johnathan Joseph, CB, South Carolina - Much like the Dolphins, the Chargers just need some guys who can cover in their secondary. Joseph is a burner with huge upside and like Hill, could contribute in some packages right away.
20. Kansas City - Santonio Holmes, WR, Ohio St - 4/24: KC needs an heir to Kennison. Holmes fits the role well and should be there at #20.
21. New England - Richard Marshall, CB, Fresno St - New England is the hardest team to get a read on. They hit with a Bulldog last year, why not go back to the well?
22. San Francisco - DeAngelo Williams, RB, Memphis - I think the 49ers know they dont have a long term answer at RB on the roster. they saw enough of Williams at the Senior Bowl to know that he could be that guy.
23. Tampa Bay -Marcus McNeill, OT, Auburn - 4/24: Tampa needs to restock at OT. The two elite options will be long gone, but McNeill's upside is almost as massive as his frame and worth a late first as long as his spinal condition is not seen as a long term issue.
24. Cincinnati - Donte Whitner, S, Ohio St - 4/24: I was not aware when I wrote this last week of Jason Allen's failed physicals. Whitner is a very solid pick and would be the best safety in a lot of drafts
25. NY Giants - Antonio Cromartie, CB, Florida St - 4/24 - now that Giants have Arrington, Im not sure that LB is as pressing of a need as CB.
26. Chicago - Ashton Youbuty, CB, Ohio St - Vasher and Tillman are not as good as their highlights would lead you to believe. They need depth at CB as Azumah is no longer with the team. Theyre lucky to be looking CB in a draft deep with first round talents at the position. His hard-nosed style will fit in perfectly with the Bears. 4/24 - I had changed this pick to Sinorice Moss after the Manning offer sheet, but now with his legal troubles, Im not so sure.
27. Carolina - LenDale White, RB, USC - The heir to Stephen Davis. Why not? He compliments Foster perfectly and gives them a sick two headed running attack. Foster has not made it through a full season yet and it would be foolish to assume he'll consistently do it at any point in his career. He's more valuable if he is preserved by sharing duty with a power RB. I like this marriage.
28. Jacksonville - Chad Greenway, LB, Iowa - 4/24: Had Ryans here, but now that I dont have the Giants taking Greenway, I think he goes here instead of Ryans.
29. NY Jets - Daryn Colledge, OL, Boise ST - Colledge is a versatile solid offensive lineman who can play either tackle position and guard and will provide immediate depth. Maroney would work here too. 4/24 - Maroney here if the Jets end up D'Brick at 4.
30. Indianapolis - Laurence Maroney, RB, Minnesota - Consider Indy another big winner in the first if this junction of need, talent, and value come together. Maroney is not polished in blocking or receiving, but he's a talented runner who should feast on the defenses pre-occupied by Peyton Manning.
31. Seattle - Kelly Jennings, CB, Miami - Kelly Herndon is not a long term answer at CB. Yeah the cornerback class is talented enough to get to get seven in the first round. Its a need position for a lot of teams.
32. Pittsburgh - Jason Allen, DB, Tennessee - 4/24 - I would love to see Jackson here, but Allen fits a need perfectly and I think he's a Steelers kind of guy. The Steelers showed last year that they're willing to take a player with current medical issues (Heath Miller couldnt work out pre-draft because of a hernia)
1. Houston - Reggie Bush, RB, USC - Maybe there's something to this Mario Williams talk. Maybe the Texans are smarting from passing on Williams when his name was Julius Peppers. I still think at the end of the day, Bush is the kind of player you can not pass on. I think they would be open to a trade, but no one has the incentive to pay the steep price to move because of the depth of the elite tier in this draft. 4/24: Negotiations have begun between the Texans and both Reggie Bush and Mario Williams.
2. New Orleans - D'brickashaw Ferguson, OT, Virginia - Mario Williams may well be the #2 prospect in this draft, but to me, Ferguson makes sense to protect the Saints investment in Drew Brees. Williams would not completely shock me, but I dont buy it. A pick of a QB would be deja vu for Brees. 4/24: Mario or D'Brick. Whichever they pass on should end up in NY.
3. Tennessee - Matt Leinart, QB, USC - I dont think the Titans have an incentive to move up if they really are that split between the three QBs. I wouldnt be shocked to see one of the others, but I really like the idea of the high first round QB having a coordinator that he has already flourished with. There's no ramp up, they can get to work from day one. If the Titans are serious about starting their rookie this year, it better be Leinart.
4. NY Jets - Mario Williams, DE, NC State- It will be a real boon to Eric Mangini if this prototype falls to #4. In most drafts, he's an easy top 3 pick and possibly #1. They need a QB, but Williams arguably has even more value in Mangini's hybrid scheme because he is so well suited for multiple roles. 4/24: Mario or D'Brick here, with Leinart a possibility if Tennessee takes Young.
5. Green Bay - A.J. Hawk, LB, Ohio State - Like New York, Green Bay should feel lucky to get a player of this caliber in a rare down year. Hawk is a can't miss prospect, the Reggie Bush of linebackers. He is a perfect tonic for the Packers defense. 4/24: a Packers homer I know is predicting a trade down.
6. San Francisco - Vernon Davis, TE, Maryland - Usually you take a top WR prospect in the second year for your franchise QB. With no A+ WR to take here, the 49ers take a guy with the talent to have that kind of impact, but just at the TE position instead. I wouldnt argue with Michael Huff here, I am that high on him.
7. Oakland - Vince Young, QB, Texas - Add Oakland to the list of big winners if Young falls to them. The freewheeling style of offense that Al Davis seems to prefer will be good for Young's playing style. No knock on Andrew Walter, but he hasnt done anything yet, and Aaron Brooks is just keeping the position warm for someone else. I don't think Young gets past them.
8. Buffalo - Brodrick Bunkley, DT, Florida St - Justice and Huff make sense, too. Ngata has gone from the consensus pick early to a less likely pick. I think he could work in a cover 2, but Bunkley is more ideal. The need is immediate, although you could argue that it was immediate on the offensive line too. Im really left to flip a coin between Bunkley and Justice when I ponder this pick.
9. Detroit - Michael Huff, S, Texas - I don't see anyone on the roster than can effectively patrol the deep middle in the tampa 2. Having Huff play centerfield will allow a more aggressive mindset on D, much the same way Ed Reed and to a lesser extent, Sean Taylor operate in their defenses. Cutler could be the pick. Justice is also a possibility here.
10. Arizona - Winston Justice, OT, USC - 4/24: With some prompting from others I've shifted to seeing the line as a bigger need than a QB of the future here.
11. St. Louis - Tye Hill, DB, Clemson - 4/24: I had Jimmy Williams here, but questions about his character are persisting, and Hill is a very solid pick. Besides, Torry Holt wants them to take Hill, and how can you disagree with him?
12. Cleveland - Haloti Ngata, DT, Oregon - The Browns should be elated if they land this ideal 3-4 NT. There are some nice OLBs on the board here, but there should be some nice prospects left when the Browns pick later on the first day.
13. Baltimore - Jay Cutler, QB, Vanderbilt - 4/24 - now that Justice is gone, I have the Ravens snapping up Cutler.
14. Philadelphia - Chad Jackson, WR, Florida - Ernie Sims looks good here too. WR and OLB have been neglected early in drafts by Philadelphia. The WR corps is looking anemic, and Reggie Brown is better suited to work the shorter stuff while his partner stretches the defense. I think Jackson is just the guy to do that. White would be the shocker.
15. Denver - Manny Lawson, DE/OLB, NC State - Ok, this is my first "out there" pick. Im projecting the Broncos to have acquired Javon Walker. Although, even if they haven't, I'm not sure Holmes would be the pick here. Lawson can work as a 4-3 end with just modest weight gain. Jason Taylor has been successful with a similar body type. He would be an instant boost to their pass rush.
16. Miami - Jimmy Williams, CB, Virginia Tech - 4/24: The secondary badly needs some help. Considered a possible top 10 pick, Williams falls into the Dolphins lap because of questions about his personality and character
17. Minnesota - Ernie Sims, LB, Florida St - He will be a coup for Minnesota if he lasts this long. He can be the disruptive force the Vikings need in their LB corps now that they are implementing the cover 2. I dont blame them if they trade this pick for Schaub, but Sims being there would make it harder.
18. Dallas - Bobby Carpenter, LB, Ohio St - A pick that has made sense for a while. An OLB really seems like the perfect junction of value and need at 18 and at least one of Lawson and Carpenter should be here.
19. San Diego - Johnathan Joseph, CB, South Carolina - Much like the Dolphins, the Chargers just need some guys who can cover in their secondary. Joseph is a burner with huge upside and like Hill, could contribute in some packages right away.
20. Kansas City - Santonio Holmes, WR, Ohio St - 4/24: KC needs an heir to Kennison. Holmes fits the role well and should be there at #20.
21. New England - Richard Marshall, CB, Fresno St - New England is the hardest team to get a read on. They hit with a Bulldog last year, why not go back to the well?
22. San Francisco - DeAngelo Williams, RB, Memphis - I think the 49ers know they dont have a long term answer at RB on the roster. they saw enough of Williams at the Senior Bowl to know that he could be that guy.
23. Tampa Bay -Marcus McNeill, OT, Auburn - 4/24: Tampa needs to restock at OT. The two elite options will be long gone, but McNeill's upside is almost as massive as his frame and worth a late first as long as his spinal condition is not seen as a long term issue.
24. Cincinnati - Donte Whitner, S, Ohio St - 4/24: I was not aware when I wrote this last week of Jason Allen's failed physicals. Whitner is a very solid pick and would be the best safety in a lot of drafts
25. NY Giants - Antonio Cromartie, CB, Florida St - 4/24 - now that Giants have Arrington, Im not sure that LB is as pressing of a need as CB.
26. Chicago - Ashton Youbuty, CB, Ohio St - Vasher and Tillman are not as good as their highlights would lead you to believe. They need depth at CB as Azumah is no longer with the team. Theyre lucky to be looking CB in a draft deep with first round talents at the position. His hard-nosed style will fit in perfectly with the Bears. 4/24 - I had changed this pick to Sinorice Moss after the Manning offer sheet, but now with his legal troubles, Im not so sure.
27. Carolina - LenDale White, RB, USC - The heir to Stephen Davis. Why not? He compliments Foster perfectly and gives them a sick two headed running attack. Foster has not made it through a full season yet and it would be foolish to assume he'll consistently do it at any point in his career. He's more valuable if he is preserved by sharing duty with a power RB. I like this marriage.
28. Jacksonville - Chad Greenway, LB, Iowa - 4/24: Had Ryans here, but now that I dont have the Giants taking Greenway, I think he goes here instead of Ryans.
29. NY Jets - Daryn Colledge, OL, Boise ST - Colledge is a versatile solid offensive lineman who can play either tackle position and guard and will provide immediate depth. Maroney would work here too. 4/24 - Maroney here if the Jets end up D'Brick at 4.
30. Indianapolis - Laurence Maroney, RB, Minnesota - Consider Indy another big winner in the first if this junction of need, talent, and value come together. Maroney is not polished in blocking or receiving, but he's a talented runner who should feast on the defenses pre-occupied by Peyton Manning.
31. Seattle - Kelly Jennings, CB, Miami - Kelly Herndon is not a long term answer at CB. Yeah the cornerback class is talented enough to get to get seven in the first round. Its a need position for a lot of teams.
32. Pittsburgh - Jason Allen, DB, Tennessee - 4/24 - I would love to see Jackson here, but Allen fits a need perfectly and I think he's a Steelers kind of guy. The Steelers showed last year that they're willing to take a player with current medical issues (Heath Miller couldnt work out pre-draft because of a hernia)
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